I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
I visited Leamington Spa for the first time yesterday! Got sunburnt sitting in the cafe at the pump rooms. Lovely place. Much nicer than Warwick, I thought.
I was very annoyed I couldn't pay for parking by card anywhere!
The young will come out and vote Labour. Alot of their traditional older support will either be staying home, casting their ballot for third party non hopers in the seat; or even voting Tory.
I expect the Labour vote in Sheffield Central to be massive.
British families will be getting poorer over the next few years as incomes fail to keep pace with inflation.
Don, what will this week's lottery numbers be?
You may not like to hear that, but it is true. In fact, it has already started. Wage growth is already lower than rate of inflation. Wage growth was March 2.4% in March whereas CPI was 2.3% in March and jumped to 2.7% in April.
If Don had said something like "inflation has risen (to target levels, btw) recently meaning it could squeeze living standards over the next few years", then that would be fine.
Incidentally, if inflation does get about 3% the BoE might actually have to grow a pair and put up interest rates.
CPI went above 3% in January 2010, peaked at 5.2% in September 2011 and didn't fall below 3% until May 2012 and there weren't any interest rate rises:
I came across this - I suspect we're supposed to be sympathetic:
' For Tracy Strassburg, a mother of two boys from Nunhead in south-east London, the sums just don't add up.
Her freelance job as a yoga teacher provides her with £640 a month.
Yet the rent on her small two-bedroom flat is £1,400. Even with housing benefit of £946 a month, she is still left borrowing £300 a month from her mother, as well as using credit cards. '
This self-employment brings in £7,680 pa - so she'll be paying very little income tax and NI. She gets housing benefit of £11,352 pa.
Can anyone explain why:
1) Taxpayers from outside London are paying for her to live in London 2) She isn't told to get a proper job and/or relocate somewhere she can afford
I am more surprised that she gets a credit card. Whiffs of sub prime lending to me.
Her children must have fathers though, and perhaps it is the need for family support that keeps her local. It is certainly a precarious existence. If she gets pregnant again...
It must be very difficult to get people to answer calls from pollsters. My wife won't answer phone calls from someone she doesn't know. I tend to answer but if there is silence -from auto dialling - then put the phone down.
More and more people will be not bothering with a landline.
What difference this makes I am not sure but surely increases probability of errors.
Most pollsters have gone to online panels for this reason.
Yes I am with YouGov but if their surveys start with asking if I am responsible for the mobile phones/energy suppliers/ HR at work or ask which brands I have a good or bad opinion of I usually give up. 50p is not sufficient reward unless very bored!!
I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
In my area York Central there are many posters for Labour but only in small letters.The name of the sitting Labour MP Rachel Maskell is everywhere.Where I live York Outer safe conservative seen nothing.
Let's make that call on June 9th. I'm far from convinced that he's had a good war. I'm expecting Labour to take a hammering.
The derision thrown at Corbyn from every quarter including me was palpable.I also expect Labour to take a hammering .However he is a good campaigner and in the main his calm demeanour has I think resonated with people open to give him a hearing.He has changed the debate in the country from a fixation on austerity as the only answer.
Yep, I agree with this. He has also taught an important lesson: Labour politicians should not try to second guess or appease the right wing Tory press. This was where New Labour went wrong. It hamstrung Ed Miliband. And it prevented all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership election. The Tory press is going to attack whatever, but these days there are other ways to get to voters. A soft left or centrist Labour leader with slightly more coherent economic policies, a relaxed view of patriotism and no back story of supporting anti-British/anti-western causes, who could assemble a team from across the PLP, would very quickly have May on the back foot in the next Parliament.
If you don't mind me asking, have you decided how you're going to vote?
I cannot vote for Corbyn. His past and his associates make it impossible. It'll be LibDem or spoiled ballot.
Thanks. Unfortunately, the LD candidate in my constituency is so dreadful, I'll be having to go Tory.
I came across this - I suspect we're supposed to be sympathetic:
' For Tracy Strassburg, a mother of two boys from Nunhead in south-east London, the sums just don't add up.
Her freelance job as a yoga teacher provides her with £640 a month.
Yet the rent on her small two-bedroom flat is £1,400. Even with housing benefit of £946 a month, she is still left borrowing £300 a month from her mother, as well as using credit cards. '
This self-employment brings in £7,680 pa - so she'll be paying very little income tax and NI. She gets housing benefit of £11,352 pa.
Can anyone explain why:
1) Taxpayers from outside London are paying for her to live in London 2) She isn't told to get a proper job and/or relocate somewhere she can afford
I am more surprised that she gets a credit card. Whiffs of sub prime lending to me.
Her children must have fathers though, and perhaps it is the need for family support that keeps her local. It is certainly a precarious existence. If she gets pregnant again...
Landlord benefit. First item to go if I was in charge, and the money put into building decent houses.
I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
I visited Leamington Spa for the first time yesterday! Got sunburnt sitting in the cafe at the pump rooms. Lovely place. Much nicer than Warwick, I thought.
I was very annoyed I couldn't pay for parking by card anywhere!
Very surprised there are charges on Sunday. Where we live it's a 10 minute walk to town and parking is free! Yep, Leamington is a fine town.
On interest rates: there was a section on BBC news last night about how hard it is to buy your first home (and save for the deposit) but no mention of the 0.25% interest rate. Bit of a glaring omission.
Let's make that call on June 9th. I'm far from convinced that he's had a good war. I'm expecting Labour to take a hammering.
The derision thrown at Corbyn from every quarter including me was palpable.I also expect Labour to take a hammering .However he is a good campaigner and in the main his calm demeanour has I think resonated with people open to give him a hearing.He has changed the debate in the country from a fixation on austerity as the only answer.
Yep, I agree with this. He has also taught an important lesson: Labour politicians should not try to second guess or appease the right wing Tory press. This was where New Labour went wrong. It hamstrung Ed Miliband. And it prevented all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership election. The Tory press is going to attack whatever, but these days there are other ways to get to voters. A soft left or centrist Labour leader with slightly more coherent economic policies, a relaxed view of patriotism and no back story of supporting anti-British/anti-western causes, who could assemble a team from across the PLP, would very quickly have May on the back foot in the next Parliament.
If you don't mind me asking, have you decided how you're going to vote?
I cannot vote for Corbyn. His past and his associates make it impossible. It'll be LibDem or spoiled ballot.
Have you thought about the local candidate ? He/she may not be a Corbynite. Would you not have voted Labour if the candidate was Cooper or Burnham ?
I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
Drive through Totnes here in Devon and you would think it is a straight fight between Labour and the Greens. UKIP came second in the seat last time with over 6,000 votes - not seen a single poster for them this time. Dr Sarah Wollaston had a majority of 18,000 last time - she might well break through 20,000 this time.
On interest rates: there was a section on BBC news last night about how hard it is to buy your first home (and save for the deposit) but no mention of the 0.25% interest rate. Bit of a glaring omission.
As someone who is looking to buy his first home in 12 months time, I am watching like a hawk. Luckily property prices in the NE are reasonable in comparison.
1) Outsource the work to where the workers are cheaper 2) Bring in workers who are cheaper
Strangely the obsession with cutting costs with cheap foreign workers never applies at executive level.
Alex Cruz is not the right man to run an airline with premium aspirations. I was on a recent medium-haul service and the staff seemed to be focused more on enjoying themselves than the tasks at hand.
I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
In my area York Central there are many posters for Labour but only in small letters.The name of the sitting Labour MP Rachel Maskell is everywhere.Where I live York Outer safe conservative seen nothing.
Around Leics posters are sparse. Quite a lot of LD ones in Oadby and Hinckley (Harborough and Bosworth constituencies), a few Jon Ashworth and one Green in Lei South University areas, a couple for the Theresa May party in fields near Kibworth (Harborough again).
There were nearly none for either side in the referendum though, it does not mean much.
I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
Drive through Totnes here in Devon and you would think it is a straight fight between Labour and the Greens. UKIP came second in the seat last time with over 6,000 votes - not seen a single poster for them this time. Dr Sarah Wollaston had a majority of 18,000 last time - she might well break through 20,000 this time.
On interest rates: there was a section on BBC news last night about how hard it is to buy your first home (and save for the deposit) but no mention of the 0.25% interest rate. Bit of a glaring omission.
As someone who is looking to buy his first home in 12 months time, I am watching like a hawk. Luckily property prices in the NE are reasonable in comparison.
Good luck! There'll be plenty of ups and downs but don't give up
I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
Drive through Totnes here in Devon and you would think it is a straight fight between Labour and the Greens. UKIP came second in the seat last time with over 6,000 votes - not seen a single poster for them this time. Dr Sarah Wollaston had a majority of 18,000 last time - she might well break through 20,000 this time.
She is LD though!
I have been driving around the Cheadle constituency this weekend. A sea of yellow; not a blue in sight (or a red, obvs). Back in 2015 there were quite a few blue flags. If we are to go by flags alone, the LDs would be coasting here. Meanwhile, in Wythenshawe and Sale East you'd hardly know there was an election on - almost no flags to be seen. (I got my Labour leaflet a few weeks back. Tory leaflet yesterday, long after postal voting has started. No LD or UKIP or Green yet.)
Let's make that call on June 9th. I'm far from convinced that he's had a good war. I'm expecting Labour to take a hammering.
The derision thrown at Corbyn from every quarter including me was palpable.I also expect Labour to take a hammering .However he is a good campaigner and in the main his calm demeanour has I think resonated with people open to give him a hearing.He has changed the debate in the country from a fixation on austerity as the only answer.
Yep, I agree with this. He has also taught an important lesson: Labour politicians should not try to second guess or appease the right wing Tory press. This was where New Labour went wrong. It hamstrung Ed Miliband. And it prevented all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership election. The Tory press is going to attack whatever, but these days there are other ways to get to voters. A soft left or centrist Labour leader with slightly more coherent economic policies, a relaxed view of patriotism and no back story of supporting anti-British/anti-western causes, who could assemble a team from across the PLP, would very quickly have May on the back foot in the next Parliament.
If you don't mind me asking, have you decided how you're going to vote?
I cannot vote for Corbyn. His past and his associates make it impossible. It'll be LibDem or spoiled ballot.
Have you thought about the local candidate ? He/she may not be a Corbynite. Would you not have voted Labour if the candidate was Cooper or Burnham ?
If the local Lab candidate is antiCorbyn then that is a strong reason to vote for them. It may make all the difference in the post election leadership.
I came across this - I suspect we're supposed to be sympathetic:
' For Tracy Strassburg, a mother of two boys from Nunhead in south-east London, the sums just don't add up.
Her freelance job as a yoga teacher provides her with £640 a month.
Yet the rent on her small two-bedroom flat is £1,400. Even with housing benefit of £946 a month, she is still left borrowing £300 a month from her mother, as well as using credit cards. '
This self-employment brings in £7,680 pa - so she'll be paying very little income tax and NI. She gets housing benefit of £11,352 pa.
Can anyone explain why:
1) Taxpayers from outside London are paying for her to live in London 2) She isn't told to get a proper job and/or relocate somewhere she can afford
I am more surprised that she gets a credit card. Whiffs of sub prime lending to me.
Her children must have fathers though, and perhaps it is the need for family support that keeps her local. It is certainly a precarious existence. If she gets pregnant again...
She has credit cardS, plural.
This story is not going to end well but I'd be interested to know how many people on average earnings are needed to pay the tax to keep her living in London.
I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
In my area York Central there are many posters for Labour but only in small letters.The name of the sitting Labour MP Rachel Maskell is everywhere.Where I live York Outer safe conservative seen nothing.
Around Leics posters are sparse. Quite a lot of LD ones in Oadby and Hinckley (Harborough and Bosworth constituencies), a few Jon Ashworth and one Green in Lei South University areas, a couple for the Theresa May party in fields near Kibworth (Harborough again).
There were nearly none for either side in the referendum though, it does not mean much.
I was in Richmond Park on Saturday. Lots of LD and Con posters. While the LD ones didn't name their candidate, I was surprised to see that the Tory ones all read 'Vote Zac Goldsmith, Conservative', accompanied by his picture. I'd have thought they would have wanted to downplay the candidate this time round.
Yes, but the rumour doing the rounds is that it is due to a power problem, so it might be nothing to do with outsourcing.
Delta had a fault where because the power system switchgear detected a high voltage it prevented the backup generators coming online in order to save equipment from shorting out. Which is the right thing to do if you really care about that equipment, but the wrong thing to do if the cost of that equipment is much less than the cost of total power failure and you can safely isolate the damaged equipment. It's a bit like letting your building burn down to avoid water damage from sprinklers.
I came across this - I suspect we're supposed to be sympathetic:
' For Tracy Strassburg, a mother of two boys from Nunhead in south-east London, the sums just don't add up.
Her freelance job as a yoga teacher provides her with £640 a month.
Yet the rent on her small two-bedroom flat is £1,400. Even with housing benefit of £946 a month, she is still left borrowing £300 a month from her mother, as well as using credit cards. '
This self-employment brings in £7,680 pa - so she'll be paying very little income tax and NI. She gets housing benefit of £11,352 pa.
Can anyone explain why:
1) Taxpayers from outside London are paying for her to live in London 2) She isn't told to get a proper job and/or relocate somewhere she can afford
I am more surprised that she gets a credit card. Whiffs of sub prime lending to me.
Her children must have fathers though, and perhaps it is the need for family support that keeps her local. It is certainly a precarious existence. If she gets pregnant again...
She has credit cardS, plural.
This story is not going to end well but I'd be interested to know how many people on average earnings are needed to pay the tax to keep her living in London.
Let's make that call on June 9th. I'm far from convinced that he's had a good war. I'm expecting Labour to take a hammering.
The derision thrown at Corbyn from every quarter including me was palpable.I also expect Labour to take a hammering .However he is a good campaigner and in the main his calm demeanour has I think resonated with people open to give him a hearing.He has changed the debate in the country from a fixation on austerity as the only answer.
Yep, I agree with this. He has also taught an important lesson: Labour politicians should not try to second guess or appease the right wing Tory press. This was where New Labour went wrong. It hamstrung Ed Miliband. And it prevented all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership election. The Tory press is going to attack whatever, but these days there are other ways to get to voters. A soft left or centrist Labour leader with slightly more coherent economic policies, a relaxed view of patriotism and no back story of supporting anti-British/anti-western causes, who could assemble a team from across the PLP, would very quickly have May on the back foot in the next Parliament.
If you don't mind me asking, have you decided how you're going to vote?
I cannot vote for Corbyn. His past and his associates make it impossible. It'll be LibDem or spoiled ballot.
Have you thought about the local candidate ? He/she may not be a Corbynite. Would you not have voted Labour if the candidate was Cooper or Burnham ?
If the local Lab candidate is antiCorbyn then that is a strong reason to vote for them. It may make all the difference in the post election leadership.
Of course, most of them are. Problem is that any vote for Labour will be interpreted as an endorsement of Jez. I quite like Rupa Huq, my MP, but there's no way I'll be voting for her.
You know as well as me that constituency MPs are merely cannon fodder. They are mainly concerned about their seat. The aim of Jezza is not personal advancement, but to remake the Labour Party in his Trot image. He'll step down once and if that is achieved. If he came to power, constituency MPs would be bystanders while his aim is achieved. They wouldn't bring down their own government no matter what Jezza did.
Kinnock saw the danger, even Blair did, but I'm not sure about Ed.
The young will come out and vote Labour. Alot of their traditional older support will either be staying home, casting their ballot for third party non hopers in the seat; or even voting Tory.
I expect the Labour vote in Sheffield Central to be massive.
Aren't the Greens pushing hard there?
Their candidate is Natalie Bennett, something which might not be to their advantage.
I came across this - I suspect we're supposed to be sympathetic:
' For Tracy Strassburg, a mother of two boys from Nunhead in south-east London, the sums just don't add up.
Her freelance job as a yoga teacher provides her with £640 a month.
Yet the rent on her small two-bedroom flat is £1,400. Even with housing benefit of £946 a month, she is still left borrowing £300 a month from her mother, as well as using credit cards. '
This self-employment brings in £7,680 pa - so she'll be paying very little income tax and NI. She gets housing benefit of £11,352 pa.
Can anyone explain why:
1) Taxpayers from outside London are paying for her to live in London 2) She isn't told to get a proper job and/or relocate somewhere she can afford
I am more surprised that she gets a credit card. Whiffs of sub prime lending to me.
Her children must have fathers though, and perhaps it is the need for family support that keeps her local. It is certainly a precarious existence. If she gets pregnant again...
She has credit cardS, plural.
This story is not going to end well but I'd be interested to know how many people on average earnings are needed to pay the tax to keep her living in London.
Car loan next?
PCP car plans are seriously sub prime at the moment.
Good article Don. I'm expecting the BA debacle to wake people up to many further and more serious problems when Brexit gets into full flow.
The obvious unanswered question is if she can't run a half decent election campaign God help us when she starts trying to extricate us from Europe with two morons by her side.
Being in France at the moment it's easy to see how intertwined our countries really are
I wonder too whether the Manchester tragedy pointed up the Tory habit of wasting time and resources for the benefit of party rather than country? First the destructive Referendum now an unnecessary election.
'For the Many Not the Few' isn't a bad slogan. They could have added the strapline
Let's make that call on June 9th. I'm far from convinced that he's had a good war. I'm expecting Labour to take a hammering.
The derision thrown at Corbyn from every quarter including me was palpable.I also expect Labour to take a hammering .However he is a good campaigner and in the main his calm demeanour has I think resonated with people open to give him a hearing.He has changed the debate in the country from a fixation on austerity as the only answer.
Yep, I agree with this. He has also taught an important lesson: Labour politicians should not try to second guess or appease the right wing Tory press. This was where New Labour went wrong. It hamstrung Ed Miliband. And it prevented all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership election. The Tory press is going to attack whatever, but these days there are other ways to get to voters. A soft left or centrist Labour leader with slightly more coherent economic policies, a relaxed view of patriotism and no back story of supporting anti-British/anti-western causes, who could assemble a team from across the PLP, would very quickly have May on the back foot in the next Parliament.
If you don't mind me asking, have you decided how you're going to vote?
I cannot vote for Corbyn. His past and his associates make it impossible. It'll be LibDem or spoiled ballot.
Have you thought about the local candidate ? He/she may not be a Corbynite. Would you not have voted Labour if the candidate was Cooper or Burnham ?
I have a Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell, Milne, Schneider, Murray etc problem. I cannot vote for a party led by these people.
I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
Drive through Totnes here in Devon and you would think it is a straight fight between Labour and the Greens. UKIP came second in the seat last time with over 6,000 votes - not seen a single poster for them this time. Dr Sarah Wollaston had a majority of 18,000 last time - she might well break through 20,000 this time.
She is LD though!
Certainly difficult for the LibDems to get any traction against her.
Let's make that call on June 9th. I'm far from convinced that he's had a good war. I'm expecting Labour to take a hammering.
The derision thrown at Corbyn from every quarter including me was palpable.I also expect Labour to take a hammering .However he is a good campaigner and in the main his calm demeanour has I think resonated with people open to give him a hearing.He has changed the debate in the country from a fixation on austerity as the only answer.
Yep, I agree with this. He has also taught an important lesson: Labour politicians should not try to second guess or appease the right wing Tory press. This was where New Labour went wrong. It hamstrung Ed Miliband. And it prevented all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership election. The Tory press is going to attack whatever, but these days there are other ways to get to voters. A soft left or centrist Labour leader with slightly more coherent economic policies, a relaxed view of patriotism and no back story of supporting anti-British/anti-western causes, who could assemble a team from across the PLP, would very quickly have May on the back foot in the next Parliament.
If you don't mind me asking, have you decided how you're going to vote?
I cannot vote for Corbyn. His past and his associates make it impossible. It'll be LibDem or spoiled ballot.
Have you thought about the local candidate ? He/she may not be a Corbynite. Would you not have voted Labour if the candidate was Cooper or Burnham ?
If the local Lab candidate is antiCorbyn then that is a strong reason to vote for them. It may make all the difference in the post election leadership.
Of course, most of them are. Problem is that any vote for Labour will be interpreted as an endorsement of Jez. I quite like Rupa Huq, my MP, but there's no way I'll be voting for her.
Yes, the irony for many of them is that their prospects for re-election now depend almost entirely on their own judgment about their leader (and their party) being proved utterly wrong.
No. Normally without the SNP and others , we need 7%. This one adds up to 92%. So 1% for the Greens. I have seen other polls like this. But Lucas will hold on to her seat.
"If the local Lab candidate is antiCorbyn then that is a strong reason to vote for them. It may make all the difference in the post election leadership."
That would mean one vote against Corbyn in the Party leadership election. Among half a million?
Hmm, so the polls are showing leads of anything from 6-14 points. Quite a bit of variance this time around. The result will depend so much on whether we're looking at a lead of over 10% or not.
I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
Drive through Totnes here in Devon and you would think it is a straight fight between Labour and the Greens. UKIP came second in the seat last time with over 6,000 votes - not seen a single poster for them this time. Dr Sarah Wollaston had a majority of 18,000 last time - she might well break through 20,000 this time.
She is LD though!
Certainly difficult for the LibDems to get any traction against her.
She is one of a handful of Tories that I would vote for.
Edward Garnier was another, but he has stepped down. Harborough now gets some blow in wanting a safe seat.
Let's make that call on June 9th. I'm far from convinced that he's had a good war. I'm expecting Labour to take a hammering.
The derision thrown at Corbyn from every quarter including me was palpable.I also expect Labour to take a hammering .However he is a good campaigner and in the main his calm demeanour has I think resonated with people open to give him a hearing.He has changed the debate in the country from a fixation on austerity as the only answer.
Yep, I agree with this. He has also taught an important lesson: Labour politicians should not try to second guess or appease the right wing Tory press. This was where New Labour went wrong. It hamstrung Ed Miliband. And it prevented all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership election. The Tory press is going to attack whatever, but these days there are other ways to get to voters. A soft left or centrist Labour leader with slightly more coherent economic policies, a relaxed view of patriotism and no back story of supporting anti-British/anti-western causes, who could assemble a team from across the PLP, would very quickly have May on the back foot in the next Parliament.
If you don't mind me asking, have you decided how you're going to vote?
I cannot vote for Corbyn. His past and his associates make it impossible. It'll be LibDem or spoiled ballot.
Have you thought about the local candidate ? He/she may not be a Corbynite. Would you not have voted Labour if the candidate was Cooper or Burnham ?
If the local Lab candidate is antiCorbyn then that is a strong reason to vote for them. It may make all the difference in the post election leadership.
Of course, most of them are. Problem is that any vote for Labour will be interpreted as an endorsement of Jez. I quite like Rupa Huq, my MP, but there's no way I'll be voting for her.
Ironically, Rupa Huq is an anti-Corbynite. I recall she called Corbyn a serial rebel.
Let's make that call on June 9th. I'm far from convinced that he's had a good war. I'm expecting Labour to take a hammering.
The derision thrown at Corbyn from every quarter including me was palpable.I also expect Labour to take a hammering .However he is a good campaigner and in the main his calm demeanour has I think resonated with people open to give him a hearing.He has changed the debate in the country from a fixation on austerity as the only answer.
Yep, I agree with this. He has also taught an important lesson: Labour politicians should not try to second guess or appease the right wing Tory press. This was where New Labour went wrong. It hamstrung Ed Miliband. And it prevented all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership election. The Tory press is going to attack whatever, but these days there are other ways to get to voters. A soft left or centrist Labour leader with slightly more coherent economic policies, a relaxed view of patriotism and no back story of supporting anti-British/anti-western causes, who could assemble a team from across the PLP, would very quickly have May on the back foot in the next Parliament.
If you don't mind me asking, have you decided how you're going to vote?
I cannot vote for Corbyn. His past and his associates make it impossible. It'll be LibDem or spoiled ballot.
Have you thought about the local candidate ? He/she may not be a Corbynite. Would you not have voted Labour if the candidate was Cooper or Burnham ?
I have a Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell, Milne, Schneider, Murray etc problem. I cannot vote for a party led by these people.
If Corbyn did win, his troubles would really start. He can't pass legislation w/o a majority in HoC. No amount of direct appeals to members can get around that.
Good article Don. I'm expecting the BA debacle to wake people up to many further and more serious problems when Brexit gets into full flow.
The obvious unanswered question is if she can't run a half decent election campaign God help us when she starts trying to extricate us from Europe with two morons by her side.
Being in France at the moment it's easy to see how intertwined our countries really are
I wonder too whether the Manchester tragedy pointed up the Tory habit of wasting time and resources for the benefit of party rather than country? First the destructive Referendum now an unnecessary election.
'For the Many Not the Few' isn't a bad slogan. They could have added the strapline
'Not Another One!'
May has more than two morons at her side!
The Daily Mail is advising its readers to make us of EU law to ensure they get compensation from BA.
I think a lot more young voters will vote this time round, even tho abolition of tuition fees won't happen as Labour cannot win with Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell. Its like asking sensible voters to eat a sarni with their three most disliked fillings all in the same sarni..
Thats my feeling as well. Plus Labour's ground game mounted by its large membership will give them a better chance of dragging people out where it matters. This may be the first election where the polls, by using old rather than contemporary data, underestimate the Labour share.
Hm, where have we heard this before... "four million conversations".
I know, I read the book by that BBC guy who spent the election with Miliband's campaign. His point however wasn't really about turnout, but that Labour's unfocused canvassing wasn't really changing anyone's mind.
Isn't the whole point about the ground game on the day itself to ensure you get out the vote?
It is, but Miliband's Million Conversations was expected to change minds as well.
To win by getting out the vote, the vote needs to be there to begin with.
"If the local Lab candidate is antiCorbyn then that is a strong reason to vote for them. It may make all the difference in the post election leadership."
That would mean one vote against Corbyn in the Party leadership election. Among half a million?
As the candidate has a vote whether an MP or not it doesn't alter that. What it does do is influence the debate nationally via the PLP.
Good article Don. I'm expecting the BA debacle to wake people up to many further and more serious problems when Brexit gets into full flow.
The obvious unanswered question is if she can't run a half decent election campaign God help us when she starts trying to extricate us from Europe with two morons by her side.
Being in France at the moment it's easy to see how intertwined our countries really are
I wonder too whether the Manchester tragedy pointed up the Tory habit of wasting time and resources for the benefit of party rather than country? First the destructive Referendum now an unnecessary election.
'For the Many Not the Few' isn't a bad slogan. They could have added the strapline
'Not Another One!'
May has more than two morons at her side!
The Daily Mail is advising its readers to make us of EU law to ensure they get compensation from BA.
"Mr. Blue, I'm having some difficulty believing Labour are on 37%."
No one inspires. Labour have offered some 'comfortable' policies. Roger may be able to advise, but I've noticed many adverts now run the line ..."You deserve it." I assumed that was just for the Snowflake generation but maybe not.
If Labour are relying on teenagers they are deluded. Time and again I hear that this time they'll vote, they don't and they won't. And if they do there is no reason to suppose they'll vote Labour, their tory voting parents will be every bit as persuasive.
And when were they last offered a £30k incentive to vote ?
That's the type of nonsense that loses Labour elections:
Vote for us and we'll give you £30k
It's a middle-class bung. Notice they are doing it while keeping all the evil Tory benefit cuts.
It's one of those policies that costs very little for a few years, rather like PFI. Currently the govt pays the universities for students on the course, then expects to get the cash back between 5-15 years later. What Labour are proposing is to keep paying out, just not to receive the future payments.
Let's make that call on June 9th. I'm far from convinced that he's had a good war. I'm expecting Labour to take a hammering.
The derision thrown at Corbyn from every quarter including me was palpable.I also expect Labour to take a hammering .However he is a good campaigner and in the main his calm demeanour has I think resonated with people open to give him a hearing.He has changed the debate in the country from a fixation on austerity as the only answer.
Yep, I agree with this. He has also taught an important lesson: Labour politicians should not try to second guess or appease the right wing Tory press. This was where New Labour went wrong. It hamstrung Ed Miliband. And it prevented all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership election. The Tory press is going to attack whatever, but these days there are other ways to get to voters. A soft left or centrist Labour leader with slightly more coherent economic policies, a relaxed view of patriotism and no back story of supporting anti-British/anti-western causes, who could assemble a team from across the PLP, would very quickly have May on the back foot in the next Parliament.
If you don't mind me asking, have you decided how you're going to vote?
I cannot vote for Corbyn. His past and his associates make it impossible. It'll be LibDem or spoiled ballot.
Have you thought about the local candidate ? He/she may not be a Corbynite. Would you not have voted Labour if the candidate was Cooper or Burnham ?
I have a Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell, Milne, Schneider, Murray etc problem. I cannot vote for a party led by these people.
If Corbyn did win, his troubles would really start. He can't pass legislation w/o a majority in HoC. No amount of direct appeals to members can get around that.
Yep - the reality is probably that the easiest way to get rid of Corbyn would be for Labour to win the election!!
Youth turnout can surge but Labour will be swamped by the grey vote. For a start there are only 5.7 million 18-24 year olds and 11 million aged 65+. Have you seen the support the tories are getting with this group?
What is more even if turnout for the young went from 43% to voting at te same rate of 78% for oldies (nope!) it will increase the lab vote by 1% and decrease the Tory vote by 1%, this is before you take into vote prefrence since 2015.
The young are also concentrated in the big cities where Labour already have MP's. The polls that are showing 18-34 year olds liklihood to vote at 63% up from 43% in 2015 might be right but how likely is a 20% in young turnout surge in one GE ? Not very I would suggest. and as I've explained it would barely make a difference if it went to 78%, (which it wont).
Labour support of 18-34 year olds is at 69% with tories at 12% too bad 65+ support the tories at 65% to 15% for Labour, and as there are millions more oldies, much higher voting rates and more evenly spread out in the marginals they count more.
Think you mean 18-24 for that 69/12 split. A six year window, whereas 65+ encompasses about 25-30 years.
Oh whoops yes! Which makes the situation even worse for Labour.
"If the local Lab candidate is antiCorbyn then that is a strong reason to vote for them. It may make all the difference in the post election leadership."
That would mean one vote against Corbyn in the Party leadership election. Among half a million?
As the candidate has a vote whether an MP or not it doesn't alter that. What it does do is influence the debate nationally via the PLP.
It also has an influence in nominations. But I can't see Corbyn can be removed now.
I wouldn't have said this a month ago. A lot of these votes are Corbyn votes. McDonnell / Abbott etc. would not have got these votes.
One thing Corbyn & co. has taught us. Do not be scared of the Tory press. Have a radical manifesto and get on with it.
Youth turnout can surge but Labour will be swamped by the grey vote. For a start there are only 5.7 million 18-24 year olds and 11 million aged 65+. Have you seen the support the tories are getting with this group?
What is more even if turnout for the young went from 43% to voting at te same rate of 78% for oldies (nope!) it will increase the lab vote by 1% and decrease the Tory vote by 1%, this is before you take into vote prefrence since 2015.
The young are also concentrated in the big cities where Labour already have MP's. The polls that are showing 18-24 year olds liklihood to vote at 63% up from 43% in 2015 might be right but how likely is a 20% in young turnout surge in one GE ? Not very I would suggest. and as I've explained it would barely make a difference if it went to 78%, (which it wont).
Labour support of 18-34 year olds is at 69% with tories at 12% too bad 65+ support the tories at 65% to 15% for Labour, and as there are millions more oldies, much higher voting rates and more evenly spread out in the marginals they count more.
Morning all,
But have the oldies turned against May? The Dementia Tax was a disaster for the Tories in that respect. Many of them will have been using their postal votes just a day or two after the manifesto screw-up.
That massive lead with the oldies was actually a narrowing after the Dementia Tax!
If Labour are relying on teenagers they are deluded. Time and again I hear that this time they'll vote, they don't and they won't. And if they do there is no reason to suppose they'll vote Labour, their tory voting parents will be every bit as persuasive.
And when were they last offered a £30k incentive to vote ?
That's the type of nonsense that loses Labour elections:
Vote for us and we'll give you £30k
It's a middle-class bung. Notice they are doing it while keeping all the evil Tory benefit cuts.
It's one of those policies that costs very little for a few years, rather like PFI. Currently the govt pays the universities for students on the course, then expects to get the cash back between 5-15 years later. What Labour are proposing is to keep paying out, just not to receive the future payments.
Its rather the reverse of Brown's pension tax grab - that brought in many billions from the start but people didn't suffer the consequences for years.
But the malign effects of BTL and falling home ownership can be traced back to it.
Mr. CD13, you may, depressingly, be right. Throwing endless free stuff at people, where the 'free' part is their own taxes being recycled through the state and massive increased borrowing, appears alarmingly popular.
Any MP showing anti-Corbyn colours or as it could be, anti-PM colour, would be hounded by the new 'Forces of Hell'. As John Cleese nearly said in The Life of Brian, "They'd have to really, really hate Corbyn".
I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
In my area York Central there are many posters for Labour but only in small letters.The name of the sitting Labour MP Rachel Maskell is everywhere.Where I live York Outer safe conservative seen nothing.
Around Leics posters are sparse. Quite a lot of LD ones in Oadby and Hinckley (Harborough and Bosworth constituencies), a few Jon Ashworth and one Green in Lei South University areas, a couple for the Theresa May party in fields near Kibworth (Harborough again).
There were nearly none for either side in the referendum though, it does not mean much.
I have seen a lot of posters for Esther McVey (GO's successor) all over the far-flung Tatton constituency, and a few LD ones in Heald Green (in the Cheadle constituency that the LDs had some hope of regaining), but no others whatsoever in the rest of Cheshire or Altrincham and Sale West.
"Mr. Blue, I'm having some difficulty believing Labour are on 37%."
No one inspires. Labour have offered some 'comfortable' policies. Roger may be able to advise, but I've noticed many adverts now run the line ..."You deserve it." I assumed that was just for the Snowflake generation but maybe not.
You make an interesting point. This is the age of high self esteem. Or at least that's the ambition 'Because I'm Worth It...' has become one of the most famous slogans of all time
Mr. CD13, you may, depressingly, be right. Throwing endless free stuff at people, where the 'free' part is their own taxes being recycled through the state and massive increased borrowing, appears alarmingly popular.
2015 was full of it - all the parties were planning magic money tree forests.
What you don't hear though are any references to wealth creation - all we have is 'take it from them and give it to you' posturing.
Let's make that call on June 9th. I'm far from convinced that he's had a good war. I'm expecting Labour to take a hammering.
The derision thrown at Corbyn from every quarter including me was palpable.I also expect Labour to take a hammering .However he is a good campaigner and in the main his calm demeanour has I think resonated with people open to give him a hearing.He has changed the debate in the country from a fixation on austerity as the only answer.
Yep, I agree with this. He has also taught an important lesson: Labour politicians should not try to second guess or appease the right wing Tory press. This was where New Labour went wrong. It hamstrung Ed Miliband. And it prevented all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership election. The Tory press is going to attack whatever, but these days there are other ways to get to voters. A soft left or centrist Labour leader with slightly more coherent economic policies, a relaxed view of patriotism and no back story of supporting anti-British/anti-western causes, who could assemble a team from across the PLP, would very quickly have May on the back foot in the next Parliament.
If you don't mind me asking, have you decided how you're going to vote?
I cannot vote for Corbyn. His past and his associates make it impossible. It'll be LibDem or spoiled ballot.
Have you thought about the local candidate ? He/she may not be a Corbynite. Would you not have voted Labour if the candidate was Cooper or Burnham ?
If the local Lab candidate is antiCorbyn then that is a strong reason to vote for them. It may make all the difference in the post election leadership.
Of course, most of them are. Problem is that any vote for Labour will be interpreted as an endorsement of Jez. I quite like Rupa Huq, my MP, but there's no way I'll be voting for her.
Ironically, Rupa Huq is an anti-Corbynite. I recall she called Corbyn a serial rebel.
She was one of the 35 who nominated Corbyn. She must of known about his IRA/Hamas past. She deserves to lose.
Mr. CD13, you may, depressingly, be right. Throwing endless free stuff at people, where the 'free' part is their own taxes being recycled through the state and massive increased borrowing, appears alarmingly popular.
Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Give the man a fishing rod, and he will say "Oi, where's my free fish?"
May will win a landslide on June 8th, partly because she's the only trustworthy leader and partly because the Conservatives have the best record on the economy. High levels of taxation do not produce wealth, but having to demolish the arguments of Marxists such as Don Brind is like entering a 1970's timewarp.
Bet you did not have a straight face when you typed "trustworthy" or the other guff about Conversatives filling their pockets at the poors expense. Gave me a good laugh mind you.
"Mr. Blue, I'm having some difficulty believing Labour are on 37%."
No one inspires. Labour have offered some 'comfortable' policies. Roger may be able to advise, but I've noticed many adverts now run the line ..."You deserve it." I assumed that was just for the Snowflake generation but maybe not.
You make an interesting point. This is the age of high self esteem. Or at least that's the ambition 'Because I'm Worth It...' has become one of the most famous slogans of all time
Mr. CD13, you may, depressingly, be right. Throwing endless free stuff at people, where the 'free' part is their own taxes being recycled through the state and massive increased borrowing, appears alarmingly popular.
Morris 10 years of no real real wage increases must have some effect eventually.British workers face worst decade for pay in 70 years .
Let's make that call on June 9th. I'm far from convinced that he's had a good war. I'm expecting Labour to take a hammering.
The derision thrown at Corbyn from every quarter including me was palpable.I also expect Labour to take a hammering .However he is a good campaigner and in the main his calm demeanour has I think resonated with people open to give him a hearing.He has changed the debate in the country from a fixation on austerity as the only answer.
Yep, I agree with this. He has also taught an important lesson: Labour politicians should not try to second guess or appease the right wing Tory press. This was where New Labour went wrong. It hamstrung Ed Miliband. And it prevented all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership election. The Tory press is going to attack whatever, but these days there are other ways to get to voters. A soft left or centrist Labour leader with slightly more coherent economic policies, a relaxed view of patriotism and no back story of supporting anti-British/anti-western causes, who could assemble a team from across the PLP, would very quickly have May on the back foot in the next Parliament.
If you don't mind me asking, have you decided how you're going to vote?
I cannot vote for Corbyn. His past and his associates make it impossible. It'll be LibDem or spoiled ballot.
Have you thought about the local candidate ? He/she may not be a Corbynite. Would you not have voted Labour if the candidate was Cooper or Burnham ?
If the local Lab candidate is antiCorbyn then that is a strong reason to vote for them. It may make all the difference in the post election leadership.
Of course, most of them are. Problem is that any vote for Labour will be interpreted as an endorsement of Jez. I quite like Rupa Huq, my MP, but there's no way I'll be voting for her.
Ironically, Rupa Huq is an anti-Corbynite. I recall she called Corbyn a serial rebel.
She was one of the 35 who nominated Corbyn. She must of known about his IRA/Hamas past. She deserves to lose.
So did Margaret Beckett and twenty others to bring more "views". They hardly realised the membership would love it.
Any MP showing anti-Corbyn colours or as it could be, anti-PM colour, would be hounded by the new 'Forces of Hell'. As John Cleese nearly said in The Life of Brian, "They'd have to really, really hate Corbyn".
Not in my view.
The early election, and Labour's resurgence means that theey are safe for 5 years, and it means more moderate MPs survive as with only 1 or 2 exceptions all sitting MPs and prior candidates were renominated.
A 100 Corbyn gains to have a majority is near impossible, but a strong showing may well help bury the hatchet in Labour. A radical manifesto will not have been a disaster, and a 2022 majority possible under a leader with less baggage. Corbyn will be too old for the next election and a more unifying leader can takevover with honour satisfied on both sides.
Good article Don. I'm expecting the BA debacle to wake people up to many further and more serious problems when Brexit gets into full flow.
The obvious unanswered question is if she can't run a half decent election campaign God help us when she starts trying to extricate us from Europe with two morons by her side.
Being in France at the moment it's easy to see how intertwined our countries really are
I wonder too whether the Manchester tragedy pointed up the Tory habit of wasting time and resources for the benefit of party rather than country? First the destructive Referendum now an unnecessary election.
'For the Many Not the Few' isn't a bad slogan. They could have added the strapline
'Not Another One!'
May has more than two morons at her side!
The Daily Mail is advising its readers to make us of EU law to ensure they get compensation from BA.
That would be extraordinary if it wasn't the Mail. What's known as chutzpah! On a more parochial level yesterday I bought some sunglasses from a shop which seemed very cheap by French standards so I asked the shopkeeper if they were OK. He said 'of course. It's got the EU stamp on it!'
If Labour are relying on teenagers they are deluded. Time and again I hear that this time they'll vote, they don't and they won't. And if they do there is no reason to suppose they'll vote Labour, their tory voting parents will be every bit as persuasive.
And when were they last offered a £30k incentive to vote ?
That's the type of nonsense that loses Labour elections:
Vote for us and we'll give you £30k
It's a middle-class bung. Notice they are doing it while keeping all the evil Tory benefit cuts.
It's one of those policies that costs very little for a few years, rather like PFI. Currently the govt pays the universities for students on the course, then expects to get the cash back between 5-15 years later. What Labour are proposing is to keep paying out, just not to receive the future payments.
Its rather the reverse of Brown's pension tax grab - that brought in many billions from the start but people didn't suffer the consequences for years.
But the malign effects of BTL and falling home ownership can be traced back to it.
If the government wins, they seriously seriously need to get a hell of alot more houses built and further discourage BTL. I can see why the young are falling for Corbyn's hard left nonsense with either the prospect of massive uni debt (Or yr at a competitive disadvantage). Heck if I was 18 years old I'd probably vote for him myself.
The new (Spanish, by the way) CEO of the merged BA/Iberia operation has been a manic cost-cutter, hence having to pay for a sandwich and a beer on short-haul flights these days.
Don't be surprised if he doesn't last the week, this looks like a monumental screwup that's going to cost an estimated £200m. Outsourcing most of their IT services might have saved 10% of what they've lost this week, before they start on the immeasurable lost goodwill of tens of thousands of unhappy customers.
How come you make so many comments that are simply "." ?
Yes, sorry about this. Sometimes on pressing the quote button it 'takes' twice & fills up the text box with redundant stuff. The only quick way to clear it is to (select all/cut) and replace with a full point and send it. Happens on the Mac, phone & iPad. Dunno why. By the time I've finally cleared the box I have lost the will to live, let alone to give the world the benefit of my genius when anyway the conversation has moved on & everyone has new hair cuts.
Any MP showing anti-Corbyn colours or as it could be, anti-PM colour, would be hounded by the new 'Forces of Hell'. As John Cleese nearly said in The Life of Brian, "They'd have to really, really hate Corbyn".
Not in my view.
The early election, and Labour's resurgence means that theey are safe for 5 years, and it means more moderate MPs survive as with only 1 or 2 exceptions all sitting MPs and prior candidates were renominated.
A 100 Corbyn gains to have a majority is near impossible, but a strong showing may well help bury the hatchet in Labour. A radical manifesto will not have been a disaster, and a 2022 majority possible under a leader with less baggage. Corbyn will be too old for the next election and a more unifying leader can takevover with honour satisfied on both sides.
I find it hard to imagine Corbyn will want to spend another 5 years as leader of opposition. I agree with Nick Palmer that a deal whereby a candidate from his wing of the party gets on the ballot is in everyone's interest. Just please let it not be Diane Abbott.
Yes, but the rumour doing the rounds is that it is due to a power problem, so it might be nothing to do with outsourcing.
Delta had a fault where because the power system switchgear detected a high voltage it prevented the backup generators coming online in order to save equipment from shorting out. Which is the right thing to do if you really care about that equipment, but the wrong thing to do if the cost of that equipment is much less than the cost of total power failure and you can safely isolate the damaged equipment. It's a bit like letting your building burn down to avoid water damage from sprinklers.
It might be a bit to do with outsourcing, even if simply because there was no longer anyone walking past the equipment every day who might have spotted the warning signs. And you'd like to imagine there'd be redundant feeds, and a remote DR site, so perhaps the knowledge of how to failover was lost during outsourcing.
It might be just my imagination but there seem to have been a few of these outages based on power feeds recently, including one just last week affecting some council services. One hopes it is only coincidence and not hacking of one sort or another.
Good article Don. I'm expecting the BA debacle to wake people up to many further and more serious problems when Brexit gets into full flow.
The obvious unanswered question is if she can't run a half decent election campaign God help us when she starts trying to extricate us from Europe with two morons by her side.
Being in France at the moment it's easy to see how intertwined our countries really are
I wonder too whether the Manchester tragedy pointed up the Tory habit of wasting time and resources for the benefit of party rather than country? First the destructive Referendum now an unnecessary election.
'For the Many Not the Few' isn't a bad slogan. They could have added the strapline
'Not Another One!'
May has more than two morons at her side!
The Daily Mail is advising its readers to make us of EU law to ensure they get compensation from BA.
That would be extraordinary if it wasn't the Mail. What's known as chutzpah! On a more parochial level yesterday I bought some sunglasses from a shop which seemed very cheap by French standards so I asked the shopkeeper if they were OK. He said 'of course. It's got the EU stamp on it!'
LOL, but presumably the UK would have introduced parallel legislation on airfares if the EU hadn't.
I am looking forward to mobile calls costing no more than in the UK when I head off for the Pyrenees next week. Not confident that will survive brexit.
Comments
I was very annoyed I couldn't pay for parking by card anywhere!
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7g7/mm23
Her children must have fathers though, and perhaps it is the need for family support that keeps her local. It is certainly a precarious existence. If she gets pregnant again...
So avoid these airlines as well as BA (Bloody Awful) in future!!
No sane person flies at school break weekends. Take the Red Funnel to the Isle of Wight instead!
1) Outsource the work to where the workers are cheaper
2) Bring in workers who are cheaper
Strangely the obsession with cutting costs with cheap foreign workers never applies at executive level.
and yet you support the uninterrupted import of low cost labour which plays to short term profits and stops investment.
There were nearly none for either side in the referendum though, it does not mean much.
This story is not going to end well but I'd be interested to know how many people on average earnings are needed to pay the tax to keep her living in London.
Delta had a fault where because the power system switchgear detected a high voltage it prevented the backup generators coming online in order to save equipment from shorting out. Which is the right thing to do if you really care about that equipment, but the wrong thing to do if the cost of that equipment is much less than the cost of total power failure and you can safely isolate the damaged equipment. It's a bit like letting your building burn down to avoid water damage from sprinklers.
You know as well as me that constituency MPs are merely cannon fodder. They are mainly concerned about their seat. The aim of Jezza is not personal advancement, but to remake the Labour Party in his Trot image. He'll step down once and if that is achieved. If he came to power, constituency MPs would be bystanders while his aim is achieved. They wouldn't bring down their own government no matter what Jezza did.
Kinnock saw the danger, even Blair did, but I'm not sure about Ed.
Jezza only has to get lucky once.
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/869088251822428160
We never learn the lessons.
The obvious unanswered question is if she can't run a half decent election campaign God help us when she starts trying to extricate us from Europe with two morons by her side.
Being in France at the moment it's easy to see how intertwined our countries really are
I wonder too whether the Manchester tragedy pointed up the Tory habit of wasting time and resources for the benefit of party rather than country? First the destructive Referendum now an unnecessary election.
'For the Many Not the Few' isn't a bad slogan. They could have added the strapline
'Not Another One!'
"If the local Lab candidate is antiCorbyn then that is a strong reason to vote for them. It may make all the difference in the post election leadership."
That would mean one vote against Corbyn in the Party leadership election. Among half a million?
Edward Garnier was another, but he has stepped down. Harborough now gets some blow in wanting a safe seat.
The Daily Mail is advising its readers to make us of EU law to ensure they get compensation from BA.
https://twitter.com/boehmlasse/status/868914012926472192
To win by getting out the vote, the vote needs to be there to begin with.
"Mr. Blue, I'm having some difficulty believing Labour are on 37%."
No one inspires. Labour have offered some 'comfortable' policies. Roger may be able to advise, but I've noticed many adverts now run the line ..."You deserve it." I assumed that was just for the Snowflake generation but maybe not.
Mr. Jonathan, would they, or would the PLP/SNP line up behind him?
I wouldn't have said this a month ago. A lot of these votes are Corbyn votes. McDonnell / Abbott etc. would not have got these votes.
One thing Corbyn & co. has taught us. Do not be scared of the Tory press. Have a radical manifesto and get on with it.
But the malign effects of BTL and falling home ownership can be traced back to it.
Any MP showing anti-Corbyn colours or as it could be, anti-PM colour, would be hounded by the new 'Forces of Hell'. As John Cleese nearly said in The Life of Brian, "They'd have to really, really hate Corbyn".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6DHRFuCEwA
What you don't hear though are any references to wealth creation - all we have is 'take it from them and give it to you' posturing.
The sooner the Patrick Party is created the better.
Mr. Roger, that's not self-esteem. It's an entitlement complex.
It led to "I want, I want, I want" and politicians willing to pander to it.
Give a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
The early election, and Labour's resurgence means that theey are safe for 5 years, and it means more moderate MPs survive as with only 1 or 2 exceptions all sitting MPs and prior candidates were renominated.
A 100 Corbyn gains to have a majority is near impossible, but a strong showing may well help bury the hatchet in Labour. A radical manifesto will not have been a disaster, and a 2022 majority possible under a leader with less baggage. Corbyn will be too old for the next election and a more unifying leader can takevover with honour satisfied on both sides.
Don't be surprised if he doesn't last the week, this looks like a monumental screwup that's going to cost an estimated £200m. Outsourcing most of their IT services might have saved 10% of what they've lost this week, before they start on the immeasurable lost goodwill of tens of thousands of unhappy customers.
'Somebody's broken an embargo'
I agree with Nick Palmer that a deal whereby a candidate from his wing of the party gets on the ballot is in everyone's interest. Just please let it not be Diane Abbott.
It might be just my imagination but there seem to have been a few of these outages based on power feeds recently, including one just last week affecting some council services. One hopes it is only coincidence and not hacking of one sort or another.
I am looking forward to mobile calls costing no more than in the UK when I head off for the Pyrenees next week. Not confident that will survive brexit.