politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The jaws of victory. The Conservatives’ faltering campaign

F1: fascinating qualifying, but I wish I'd put more on Raikkonen to win at 27. And my set-up hedge at 5 now looks rather long.

isam said:

You know what would be really nice? If one of the billionaires in the UK built a load of free hospitals/care homes for the elderly. Aren't there a load of big old country manors that could be put to better use?

Actually you have half a point there. Our billionaires are far "tighter" than billionaires say in the States who are far more philanthropic.

MarkHopkins said:

Thorpe_Bay said:

Theresa may lets a suspect, reported by own family & community, travel freely to Libya & Syria & back & then murder. And this site think JC is a risk?

Look at your own leader before throwing stones.

Ok let's look:-

TMay has put more money into the security services, Diane Abbott wants them disbanded.

TMay lost a friend to IRA bombing, John McDonnell congratulated their bombing.

Corbyn supported the IRA and their aims. TMay does not support terrorists.

Don't throw stones at other sides until you've got your own house in order.

FOCUS JUST ON THERESA MAYS RECORD.
FACT
Theresa may was home secretary for 7 years and every year broke her promise on immigration. More people came in than came in. She failed to secure our borders.
FACT
Theresa may cut police numbers as home secretary.
FACT
Theresa May has no idea who is here, who isn't, where people go and who they have met.
FACT
She supported the removal of Saddam Hussein.
FACT
She supported the removal of Colonel Gaddafi
FACT
She told us that remaining in the EU was the only option as it would jeopardise our national security
FACT
There is no evidence that putting more money into the security services like the NHS makes the service better.

PLEASE
Do not reply by talking about the otherside. We're talking about our house, our party and our representatives. Theresa May is a conservative. You're a conservative. i'm a Conservative. She is a neo-liberal conservative that is obsessed with her career and has failed the test to secure the border, maintain enough police offices on our streets and made the wrong votes on every foreign policy decision this country has faced.

Freggles said:

isam said:

Pong said:

On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?

Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.

No?

Why should people w dementia have to pay for healthcare at all is my question

It's social care that they are paying for, which was never part of the NHS.

If the person has severe health needs as a result of dementia or anything else their care is free (It's called Continuing Health Care).
The difference between health and social care is often contentious but it hinges on the severity, complexity, frequency etc of the needs

So when you are too ill to look after yourself then you should be under health care, trying to rob people by pretending that for some it is social care and not health care is a disgrace. They are ill and need hospitalised. All teh weaselly Tory words will not change the fact that either everybody should get it or they should all pay for their own, some people shoudl not pay multiple times for being sensible whilst wasters get taken by the hand and spoon fed someone elses money. Remove it from Tax / NI and make insurance compulsory.

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.

1) The Government don't set the terrorist threat level

2) British Airways is nothing to do with the government,

3) The BA is issue is an IT issue isn't it?

Wrong - whilst the Government is independently advised, it is they, via the COBRA committee meeting earlier, who actually took the decision and indeed announced it.

Wrong - since when have attacks on life critical IT systems not been properly classified as terrorist acts? I'd have thought as a lawyer that you'd have readily understood that.

No, it is JTAC that sets the threat level, it is independent of the government. The government merely announced it. We went through this the other day.

So you'd consider the ransomware attack on the NHS as a terrorist attack, as opposed to a cybercrime?

Corbyn's apologists say his associations with the IRA are already factored in. Possible. However, he was caught telling an outright lie -

https://order-order.com/2017/05/27/iain-dale-reads-guidos-corbyn-ira-list-diane-abbott/

The 'man of principle' suddenly becomes a squirming liar under forensic cross examination. That will harm Corbyn.

Norm said:

isam said:

You know what would be really nice? If one of the billionaires in the UK built a load of free hospitals/care homes for the elderly. Aren't there a load of big old country manors that could be put to better use?

Actually you have half a point there. Our billionaires are far "tighter" than billionaires say in the States who are far more philanthropic.

Mrs Thatcher was said to be surprised and disappointed that the new 1980s millionaires were not more philanthropic. Her invocation of the Good Samaritan was meant both ways. George Osborne on the other hand removed tax incentives to philanthropy.

Thorpe_Bay said:

MarkHopkins said:

Thorpe_Bay said:

Theresa may lets a suspect, reported by own family & community, travel freely to Libya & Syria & back & then murder. And this site think JC is a risk?

Look at your own leader before throwing stones.

Ok let's look:-

TMay has put more money into the security services, Diane Abbott wants them disbanded.

TMay lost a friend to IRA bombing, John McDonnell congratulated their bombing.

Corbyn supported the IRA and their aims. TMay does not support terrorists.

Don't throw stones at other sides until you've got your own house in order.

FOCUS JUST ON THERESA MAYS RECORD.
....
PLEASE
Do not reply by talking about the otherside. We're talking about our house, our party and our representatives. Theresa May is a conservative. You're a conservative. i'm a Conservative. She is a neo-liberal conservative that is obsessed with her career and has failed the test to secure the border, maintain enough police offices on our streets and made the wrong votes on every foreign policy decision this country has faced.

"i'm a Conservative"

Yes, of course you are.

rcs1000 said:

Thorpe_Bay said:

FACT
Theresa May has no idea who is here, who isn't, where people go and who they have met.

Maybe we should all carry compulsory trackers so the government knows where we all are at any point in time.

iPhones for all !

MarkHopkins said:

Thorpe_Bay said:

MarkHopkins said:

Thorpe_Bay said:

Theresa may lets a suspect, reported by own family & community, travel freely to Libya & Syria & back & then murder. And this site think JC is a risk?

Look at your own leader before throwing stones.

Ok let's look:-

TMay has put more money into the security services, Diane Abbott wants them disbanded.

TMay lost a friend to IRA bombing, John McDonnell congratulated their bombing.

Corbyn supported the IRA and their aims. TMay does not support terrorists.

Don't throw stones at other sides until you've got your own house in order.

FOCUS JUST ON THERESA MAYS RECORD.
....
PLEASE
Do not reply by talking about the otherside. We're talking about our house, our party and our representatives. Theresa May is a conservative. You're a conservative. i'm a Conservative. She is a neo-liberal conservative that is obsessed with her career and has failed the test to secure the border, maintain enough police offices on our streets and made the wrong votes on every foreign policy decision this country has faced.

"i'm a Conservative"

Yes, of course you are.

Yes I beleive him.

Pops up on the forum two weeks before the election and we get 21 posts in a few hours all attacking the Conservatives.. natural Tory I would say.

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/868451810276773891

And Mike's busy and I'll be covering the polls tonight.

So I'm expecting a quiet, uneventful night.

From a similar point two year ago:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/25/the-first-of-tonights-three-polls-has-the-tories-still-ahead/

isam said:

You know what would be really nice? If one of the billionaires in the UK built a load of free hospitals/care homes for the elderly. Aren't there a load of big old country manors that could be put to better use?

The Duke of Westminster did that. Stanford Hall.

ThreeQuidder said:

The Tory share has gone from 41-42% before the election was called to 43-44% now (pending tonight's polls).

I really don't see the problem.

No good burying your head in sand.

The tories will win but by god they seem to be trying not to.

Norm said:

isam said:

You know what would be really nice? If one of the billionaires in the UK built a load of free hospitals/care homes for the elderly. Aren't there a load of big old country manors that could be put to better use?

Actually you have half a point there. Our billionaires are far "tighter" than billionaires say in the States who are far more philanthropic.

You could move the inverted commas from "tighter" and put them around "our". Most London-resident billionaires worth more than £5bn are foreigners. Are there any who aren't, now that Gerald Grosvenor has died, other than the Monaco-domiciled Reuben brothers?

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/868451810276773891

And Mike's busy and I'll be covering the polls tonight.

So I'm expecting a quiet, uneventful night.

From a similar point two year ago:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/25/the-first-of-tonights-three-polls-has-the-tories-still-ahead/

Without wanting to break confidences, I've been texting someone in the polling industry about two years ago.

He said what's different is that the polls largely had the Tories and Labour neck and neck, and any leads were within the MOE.

This time the story is the apparent fall in the Tory lead/rise in Labour's share of the vote.

Tonight the issue for us is this, was the YouGov poll an outlier or a harbinger, the decline in Mrs May's ratings makes me think harbinger.

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.

1) The Government don't set the terrorist threat level

2) British Airways is nothing to do with the government,

3) The BA is issue is an IT issue isn't it?

Wrong - since when have attacks on life critical IT systems not been properly classified as terrorist acts? I'd have thought as a lawyer that you'd have readily understood that

1) In what way is the BA system 'life critical'?
2) What evidence do you have for 'attack'? When faced with a choice between 'cock up' and 'conspiracy' I know which is more likely.....

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.

1) The Government don't set the terrorist threat level

2) British Airways is nothing to do with the government,

3) The BA is issue is an IT issue isn't it?

Wrong - whilst the Government is independently advised, it is they, via the COBRA committee meeting earlier, who actually took the decision and indeed announced it.

Wrong - since when have attacks on life critical IT systems not been properly classified as terrorist acts? I'd have thought as a lawyer that you'd have readily understood that.

No, it is JTAC that sets the threat level, it is independent of the government. The government merely announced it. We went through this the other day.

So you'd consider the ransomware attack on the NHS as a terrorist attack, as opposed to a cybercrime?

You have chosen to ignore the words "life critical" which I used in this context.

How is the BA issue life critical?

People are having their flights cancelled, frustrating yes, life critical? I mean really?

As an aside, I keep on telling people British Airways is the shitest airline in the world.

They pretend to be a Premier League airline, but they are more pub league

MikeL said:

Norm said:

As Matthew Parris in the Times and Peter the Punter indeed wrote earlier here the "Brexit" election has so far been about anything else except Brexit. Labour though played a clever card in accepting we are leaving the EU albeit preferring a softer route out. It has made it hard for the Tories to make capital or reset the election on to that subject. The LDs in contrast by focussing on a second referendum as their main platform have nuked themselves. We do though need to have a proper debate about the way forward and I sincerely hope that occurs in the next ten days.

Maybe Con should try to frighten Leave supporters by saying "We won't actually leave under Corbyn" - which could well be true in the sense that a Corbyn Minority Government would be dependent on SNP / LD - neither of whom want to leave.

Con need a clear simple selling point - Leave supporters thinking only Con will actually leave the EU would be a very powerful one.

You are not going to make Brexit into a big issue for people in this election. But by all means try! CON do need a USP but...the time has gone.

CarlottaVance said:

dyedwoolie said:

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.

1) The Government don't set the terrorist threat level

2) British Airways is nothing to do with the government,

3) The BA is issue is an IT issue isn't it?

Wrong - whilst the Government is independently advised, it is they, via the COBRA committee meeting earlier, who actually took the decision and indeed announced it.

Wrong - since when have attacks on life critical IT systems not been properly classified as terrorist acts? I'd have thought as a lawyer that you'd have readily understood that.

There is no evidence that BA has been attacked. And people being late for their holiday is not life critical.

I suspect IT folks are taking the weekend to upgrade systems - I've just been on the phone to my Hosting company coz website is down.....server upgrade.....

Ditto.

MarkHopkins said:

Thorpe_Bay said:

MarkHopkins said:

Thorpe_Bay said:

Theresa may lets a suspect, reported by own family & community, travel freely to Libya & Syria & back & then murder. And this site think JC is a risk?

Look at your own leader before throwing stones.

Ok let's look:-

TMay has put more money into the security services, Diane Abbott wants them disbanded.

TMay lost a friend to IRA bombing, John McDonnell congratulated their bombing.

Corbyn supported the IRA and their aims. TMay does not support terrorists.

Don't throw stones at other sides until you've got your own house in order.

FOCUS JUST ON THERESA MAYS RECORD.
....
PLEASE
Do not reply by talking about the otherside. We're talking about our house, our party and our representatives. Theresa May is a conservative. You're a conservative. i'm a Conservative. She is a neo-liberal conservative that is obsessed with her career and has failed the test to secure the border, maintain enough police offices on our streets and made the wrong votes on every foreign policy decision this country has faced.

"i'm a Conservative"

Yes, of course you are.

Excuse me I campaigned hard on the streets for Rebecca Harris. Let me tell you there are few voters in Essex that support a pro-remain tory, who supports cuts in police numbers, who refused to control our borders and who believes in neo-liberal policies.

Blair, Cameron and May have one thing in common.
All Pro-EU
All support open borders
All support bombing other nations.

I have huge respect for Nigel Farage. He should get a knighthood for what he's done for this country. Make no mistake the biggest risk to our country is neo-liberal politicians that keep making the same mistakes time and time again.

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/868451810276773891

And Mike's busy and I'll be covering the polls tonight.

So I'm expecting a quiet, uneventful night.

From a similar point two year ago:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/25/the-first-of-tonights-three-polls-has-the-tories-still-ahead/

Without wanting to break confidences, I've been texting someone in the polling industry about two years ago.

He said what's different is that the polls largely had the Tories and Labour neck and neck, and any leads were within the MOE.

This time the story is the apparent fall in the Tory lead/rise in Labour's share of the vote.

Tonight the issue for us is this, was the YouGov poll an outlier or a harbinger, the decline in Mrs May's ratings makes me think harbinger.

I've just been You-Gov'd; unusually they actually presented me with a list of the candidates standing in my constituency. This, I assume, is to cut down on UKIP/Green voters who don't have a candidate. If they are doing it by constituency then perhaps they will have a better idea of seat numbers than simply the raw share of vote.

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/868451810276773891

And Mike's busy and I'll be covering the polls tonight.

So I'm expecting a quiet, uneventful night.

From a similar point two year ago:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/25/the-first-of-tonights-three-polls-has-the-tories-still-ahead/

the decline in Mrs May's ratings makes me think harbinger.

The YouGov ratings showed an increase post-Manchester, while Corbyn's fell.

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/868451810276773891

And Mike's busy and I'll be covering the polls tonight.

So I'm expecting a quiet, uneventful night.

From a similar point two year ago:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/25/the-first-of-tonights-three-polls-has-the-tories-still-ahead/

Without wanting to break confidences, I've been texting someone in the polling industry about two years ago.

He said what's different is that the polls largely had the Tories and Labour neck and neck, and any leads were within the MOE.

This time the story is the apparent fall in the Tory lead/rise in Labour's share of the vote.

Tonight the issue for us is this, was the YouGov poll an outlier or a harbinger, the decline in Mrs May's ratings makes me think harbinger.

I've just been You-Gov'd; unusually they actually presented me with a list of the candidates standing in my constituency. This, I assume, is to cut down on UKIP/Green voters who don't have a candidate. If they are doing it by constituency then perhaps they will have a better idea of seat numbers that simply the raw share of vote.

Yup, YouGov, ComRes, ICM, and a few others are now asking constituency specific VI for that very reason.

Poster watch :
Paul Blomfield Sheffield central huge amount of boards in the s11 area near cemetary road.

Totley grange drive where I'm delivering soft Tory remain squeeze leaflets for Clegg. 2 Labour houses no other boards in the 67 house delivery.
Couple of lib dem 2 Tory boards on Baslow road so far

Pulpstar said:

Poster watch :
Paul Blomfield Sheffield central huge amount of boards in the s11 area near cemetary road.

Totley grange drive where I'm delivering soft Tory remain squeeze leaflets for Clegg. 2 Labour houses no other boards in the 67 house delivery.
Couple of lib dem 2 Tory boards on Baslow road so far

Told you they were worried about losing Sheffield Central.

Question for voters
Do you support Open borders? No
Well you can't vote for Theresa May as she was home secretary for 7 years and failed to control immigration.

And I get told I'm not a Conservative. Look in the mirror and just say "I'm voting for someone who for 7 years has left our countries borders open and done nothing about it. Yes she calls herself a Conservative.

What is Conservative about open borders and letting anyone in?

Thorpe_Bay said:

Question for voters
Do you support Open borders? No
Well you can't vote for Theresa May as she was home secretary for 7 years and failed to control immigration.

And I get told I'm not a Conservative. Look in the mirror and just say "I'm voting for someone who for 7 years has left our countries borders open and done nothing about it. Yes she calls herself a Conservative.

What is Conservative about open borders and letting anyone in?

Who are you going to vote for?

Honestly, I find the current Tory panic amusing, not the least in that it's exposing some of the cracks in the coalition. Fighting an election entirely by screeching IRA every time Corbyn appears is at best blue meat for the base and at worst possibly counterproductive. Especially as the Corbyn call on some foreign policy choices of the last 20 years has been demonstrably right.

But I can't believe the Tories won't still get a very workable majority in June 2017. And be utterly thrashed in 2022.

This election isn't about the fact of Brexit. We've declared Article 50. It's going ahead. It's now about delivering an outcome where the choices approximately are a messy and long drawn out compromise or walking away with nothing. It's not surprising parties don't want to talk about it. The Lib Dems did, but not too their advantage.

Thorpe_Bay said:

Question for voters
Do you support Open borders? No
Well you can't vote for Theresa May as she was home secretary for 7 years and failed to control immigration.

And I get told I'm not a Conservative. Look in the mirror and just say "I'm voting for someone who for 7 years has left our countries borders open and done nothing about it. Yes she calls herself a Conservative.

What is Conservative about open borders and letting anyone in?

If you're going to astroturf, at least get your facts right.

She was Home Secretary for six years.

Thorpe_Bay said:

Question for voters
Do you support Open borders? No
Well you can't vote for Theresa May as she was home secretary for 7 years and failed to control immigration.

And I get told I'm not a Conservative. Look in the mirror and just say "I'm voting for someone who for 7 years has left our countries borders open and done nothing about it. Yes she calls herself a Conservative.

What is Conservative about open borders and letting anyone in?

And how would they close them (whatever that actually means) whilst being EU members?

SandyRentool said:

marke09 said:

SophyRidge On Sunday‏Verified account @RidgeOnSunday 8m8 minutes ago

4 Scottish leaders on the show tmrw LIVE in Glasgow. If @British_Airways can't fix its PCs, one of them might have to be presenter... #Ridge

Sophy needs to book herself a berth on the sleeper. Perhaps Sunil could give her some tips?

(Auto correct just changed Sophy to 'so physical'!)

That wasn't an auto correct, that was a Freudian

HaroldO said:

Jason said:

Corbyn's apologists say his associations with the IRA are already factored in. Possible. However, he was caught telling an outright lie -

https://order-order.com/2017/05/27/iain-dale-reads-guidos-corbyn-ira-list-diane-abbott/

The 'man of principle' suddenly becomes a squirming liar under forensic cross examination. That will harm Corbyn.

Yep, it's not the IRA talks that is the big problem it is now the fibbing about it.

Getting a politician to squirm is what interviewers live for, they got May on the care costs and now they have a new target.

Paxman must be licking his lips in anticipation.

First question to Corbyn - 'did you meet members of the IRA, yes or no?' If he says 'no', Paxman produces Guido's damning list and reads out the evidence.

I wonder if his advisers have told him to stick with the 'I thought they were acting on behalf of Sinn Fein, honest I did, gov, I did it all for peace, honest'.

Corbyn's chickens have come home to roost. Finally.

SandyRentool said:

marke09 said:

SophyRidge On Sunday‏Verified account @RidgeOnSunday 8m8 minutes ago

4 Scottish leaders on the show tmrw LIVE in Glasgow. If @British_Airways can't fix its PCs, one of them might have to be presenter... #Ridge

Sophy needs to book herself a berth on the sleeper. Perhaps Sunil could give her some tips?

(Auto correct just changed Sophy to 'so physical'!)

SandyRentool said:

marke09 said:

SophyRidge On Sunday‏Verified account @RidgeOnSunday 8m8 minutes ago

4 Scottish leaders on the show tmrw LIVE in Glasgow. If @British_Airways can't fix its PCs, one of them might have to be presenter... #Ridge

Sophy needs to book herself a berth on the sleeper. Perhaps Sunil could give her some tips?

(Auto correct just changed Sophy to 'so physical'!)

SandyRentool said:

marke09 said:

SophyRidge On Sunday‏Verified account @RidgeOnSunday 8m8 minutes ago

4 Scottish leaders on the show tmrw LIVE in Glasgow. If @British_Airways can't fix its PCs, one of them might have to be presenter... #Ridge

Sophy needs to book herself a berth on the sleeper. Perhaps Sunil could give her some tips?

(Auto correct just changed Sophy to 'so physical'!)

she has set up a poll on her twitter account asking which one of the four should be presenter -so far Ruth is favourite

Corbyn getting a lot of TV coverage inthe next few days - heis on Peston on Sunday, The Channel4/SKY News debate onMonday and The One SHow on Tuesday

Jason said:

HaroldO said:

Jason said:

Corbyn's apologists say his associations with the IRA are already factored in. Possible. However, he was caught telling an outright lie -

https://order-order.com/2017/05/27/iain-dale-reads-guidos-corbyn-ira-list-diane-abbott/

The 'man of principle' suddenly becomes a squirming liar under forensic cross examination. That will harm Corbyn.

Yep, it's not the IRA talks that is the big problem it is now the fibbing about it.

Getting a politician to squirm is what interviewers live for, they got May on the care costs and now they have a new target.

Paxman must be licking his lips in anticipation.

First question to Corbyn - 'did you meet members of the IRA, yes or no?' If he says 'no', Paxman produces Guido's damning list and reads out the evidence.

I wonder if his advisers have told him to stick with the 'I thought they were acting on behalf of Sinn Fein, honest I did, gov, I did it all for peace, honest'.

Corbyn's chickens have come home to roost. Finally.

Are you at the Billy Mill roundabout yet Jason?

Jason said:

HaroldO said:

Jason said:

Corbyn's apologists say his associations with the IRA are already factored in. Possible. However, he was caught telling an outright lie -

https://order-order.com/2017/05/27/iain-dale-reads-guidos-corbyn-ira-list-diane-abbott/

The 'man of principle' suddenly becomes a squirming liar under forensic cross examination. That will harm Corbyn.

Yep, it's not the IRA talks that is the big problem it is now the fibbing about it.

Getting a politician to squirm is what interviewers live for, they got May on the care costs and now they have a new target.

Paxman must be licking his lips in anticipation.

First question to Corbyn - 'did you meet members of the IRA, yes or no?' If he says 'no', Paxman produces Guido's damning list and reads out the evidence.

I wonder if his advisers have told him to stick with the 'I thought they were acting on behalf of Sinn Fein, honest I did, gov, I did it all for peace, honest'.

Corbyn's chickens have come home to roost. Finally.

Oh, interested in Corbyn's links to the IRA are you? Well why didn't you mention it before?


/s

https://twitter.com/election_data/status/868448182212194304

marke09 said:

Corbyn getting a lot of TV coverage inthe next few days - heis on Peston on Sunday, The Channel4/SKY News debate onMonday and The One SHow on Tuesday

...and only the snippets about his IRA associations will be shown on the main news on the BBC and ITV. He's made it a story by lying to Andrew Neil.

He could not bring himself to condemn the IRA, because it would have meant condemning himself. Lying about it is even worse.

Miss Vance, also interesting all show the Conservatives in third.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I knew he was tall, but just how fecking tall is Daniel Kawczynski

https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/868462183973355521

Ha, blocked.
Don't remember ever interacting with him, but no doubt it would have been a tribute to his sterling (geddit) efforts to encourage UK-Saudi relations.

Monksfield said:

Jason said:

HaroldO said:

Jason said:

Corbyn's apologists say his associations with the IRA are already factored in. Possible. However, he was caught telling an outright lie -

https://order-order.com/2017/05/27/iain-dale-reads-guidos-corbyn-ira-list-diane-abbott/

The 'man of principle' suddenly becomes a squirming liar under forensic cross examination. That will harm Corbyn.

Yep, it's not the IRA talks that is the big problem it is now the fibbing about it.

Getting a politician to squirm is what interviewers live for, they got May on the care costs and now they have a new target.

Paxman must be licking his lips in anticipation.

First question to Corbyn - 'did you meet members of the IRA, yes or no?' If he says 'no', Paxman produces Guido's damning list and reads out the evidence.

I wonder if his advisers have told him to stick with the 'I thought they were acting on behalf of Sinn Fein, honest I did, gov, I did it all for peace, honest'.

Corbyn's chickens have come home to roost. Finally.

Are you at the Billy Mill roundabout yet Jason?

I'd like to see the positive case for voting Tory at the election rather than just simply 'Corbyn is terrible' something which has already been established.

Thorpe_Bay said:

blueblue said:

Thorpe_Bay said:

Question for voters
Do you support Open borders? No
Well you can't vote for Theresa May as she was home secretary for 7 years and failed to control immigration.

And I get told I'm not a Conservative. Look in the mirror and just say "I'm voting for someone who for 7 years has left our countries borders open and done nothing about it. Yes she calls herself a Conservative.

What is Conservative about open borders and letting anyone in?

What Conservative could contemplate letting Corbyn in? Then you'll see what REAL open borders are all about.

Your voting for an MP not a president.

The mp is who you vote for. They make a real difference. They advocate for the interests of the community.

Complete rubbish - the PM dictates Government policy over 90% of the time. We've had a quasi-presidential system in the UK for decades.

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I knew he was tall, but just how fecking tall is Daniel Kawczynski

https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/868462183973355521

Ha, blocked.
Don't remember ever interacting with him, but no doubt it would have been a tribute to his sterling (geddit) efforts to encourage UK-Saudi relations.

I'm still proud of my blocking by Dan Hannan when he said Vote Leave had never raised immigration much during the EU ref campaign.

MikeL said:

Inserting Con 42, Lab 39, LD 9, UKIP 2, Green 2 into Baxter gives a Con majority of 4.

This seems very surprising given that a lead of 6.6% in 2015 only gave a majority of 12 - it implies Con would only lose a net 4 seats.

Can anyone explain this?

Can anyone give an objective analysis of whether it's likely to be right or wrong (ie not just Con supporters saying it's right and Lab supporters saying it's wrong).

My expectation would be that a left wing candidate is more likely to pile up votes in traditionally strong Labour areas and be vulnerable in marginal seats, which would make the Tory vote more efficient by comparison. But what do I know.

SandyRentool said:

Chris said:

"On the other side of the fence, Theresa May needs urgently to remind the public what she considers to be her USP for this election."

In the words of Alastair Sim in The Happiest Days of Your Life - can't you see she's trying to think of one?

To differentiate herself from Corbyn, May should pitch up wearing a bowler hat and singing The Sash.

That is reserved for Ruthie and her chums

Yorkcity said:

Why all this angst from Tories when Lord Ashcroft polls showing a majority of 142 ?

A long time ago I used to do Maths questions - for Exams etc. The angst is that the analysis offered by his grace seems to be essentially correct but the reality will always be that there might be some 1=2 errors in the working which we haven't noticed. Lord Ashcroft also has a track record of not getting these things right.

No campaign is ever perfect and I don't mean that as an understatement. They can veer off in the weirdest directions for little logical reason. For instance the social services policy, vilified a week ago is now seen to have some merit. BUT it was at Green Paper level and that was never / could never be explained.

I don't like the one person campaign myself - just reinforces the Spitting Image thing about Mrs T and the vegetables - at least the vegetables had names !

There is obviously a very wide margin for the possible majority and I think 136 is about the maximum reasonable expectation. But for me the key is 90 because that is where I think Westmorland swings Tory.