politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The jaws of victory. The Conservatives’ faltering campaign
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The jaws of victory. The Conservatives’ faltering campaign
The wheels have come off the wagon for Team Theresa. Just two weeks ago the blue team’s lead looked more fearsome than the north face of the Eiger. Theresa May looked to be cruising to victory and the saboteurs were on track to be crushed. The stocks were sold; the press was squared: the middle class was quite prepared. But the middle class were emphatically not prepared for the Tories’ social care policy, which seems to have gone down like rat poison with those voters who are potentially affected by it.
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third?0
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and first0
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and second0
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Diane? Is that you?paulyork64 said:third?
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Second like Labour after disqualifications,.0
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FPTPaulM said:
Are you allowed to bet// change spread positions during the embargo period ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I should be getting the embargoed copy about two hours in advance.Scrapheap_as_was said:
"if"TheScreamingEagles said:
Well if the Tory lead is less than 25% with ComRes tonight, I've got a rather awesome headline planned.Scrapheap_as_was said:Looking forward to a new avatar later... which newspaper might oblige this election?
That'll give me some time to come up with a decent headline.
The consensus was that it was a bad idea: although there doesn't appear to be a legal regime in place, the pollster won't be happy0 -
It would be hilarious if Labour win.0
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ha. i guessed wrong!nunu said:
Diane? Is that you?paulyork64 said:third?
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No, its someone who looks like Diane, sounds like Diane, espouses Diane policies - but isn't Diane.....nunu said:
Diane? Is that you?paulyork64 said:third?
On topic. Yes, Mr Meeks, the Tories need to raise their game and sharpish.0 -
The Tory share has gone from 41-42% before the election was called to 43-44% now (pending tonight's polls).
I really don't see the problem.0 -
The Labour share has gone from ~25% to ~35%.ThreeQuidder said:The Tory share has gone from 41-42% before the election was called to 43-44% now (pending tonight's polls).
I really don't see the problem.0 -
BA cancel all flights before 6pm from Heathrow and Gatwick0
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'Remain campaign which sought to stress stability and being sensible' LOL0
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38% in one poll indicating that not only is Corbyn doing better than Miliband which is what we were discussing last week ... but potentially Corbyn is doing better than Cameron!Danny565 said:
The Labour share has gone from ~25% to ~35%.ThreeQuidder said:The Tory share has gone from 41-42% before the election was called to 43-44% now (pending tonight's polls).
I really don't see the problem.0 -
Sky have already found someone exhibiting the blitz spirit at Heathrow lol0
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On late Spring Bank Holiday weekend; there must be chaos at the airports.dyedwoolie said:BA cancel all flights before 6pm from Heathrow and Gatwick
BA still tight lipped as to whether it's a system failure or a cyber attack.0 -
wow! that's embarrassing.dyedwoolie said:BA cancel all flights before 6pm from Heathrow and Gatwick
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Sky reporting chaos and, somewhat distastefully, carnageIanB2 said:
On late Spring Bank Holiday weekend; there must be chaos at the airports.dyedwoolie said:BA cancel all flights before 6pm from Heathrow and Gatwick
BA still tight lipped as to whether it's a system failure or a cyber attack.0 -
The Tories have rested on their laurels too much so far in this campaign. I think they thought that Labour would implode and they could just sit back and watch.
The thing is, with the benefit of hindsight that looked to be a very risky strategy. Labours manifesto was always going to be populist and headline-grabbing. They needed to be able to explain why it was a bad idea to pursue these policies. Instead they've relied on leadership qualities, which I guess is a plus for them but has the disadvantage of being somewhat vacuous when it comes to the crunch.
What they need to do now in the remaining week and a half is really step it up, go on Brexit, immigration and national security, the three areas where Labour is most vulnerable.0 -
And even his real nemesis, Blair, did in 2005. Not that I think Labour will get 38%, mind.Philip_Thompson said:
38% in one poll indicating that not only is Corbyn doing better than Miliband which is what we were discussing last week ... but potentially Corbyn is doing better than Cameron!Danny565 said:
The Labour share has gone from ~25% to ~35%.ThreeQuidder said:The Tory share has gone from 41-42% before the election was called to 43-44% now (pending tonight's polls).
I really don't see the problem.0 -
Neither do I. But then I didn't think we'd leave the EU or Trump would be President, so what do I know?Essexit said:
And even his real nemesis, Blair, did in 2005. Not that I think Labour will get 38%, mind.Philip_Thompson said:
38% in one poll indicating that not only is Corbyn doing better than Miliband which is what we were discussing last week ... but potentially Corbyn is doing better than Cameron!Danny565 said:
The Labour share has gone from ~25% to ~35%.ThreeQuidder said:The Tory share has gone from 41-42% before the election was called to 43-44% now (pending tonight's polls).
I really don't see the problem.0 -
Oh dear......
The Shadow Home Secretary's remarks appeared to contradict Mr Corbyn's assertion yesterday that he had never met with the Republican terrorist group.
The Labour leader has come under fire for his past association with militant Republicans, including inviting convicted IRA terrorists to the House of Commons just weeks after the Brighton bombing in 1984.
In an interview on the BBC last night, Mr Corbyn insisted he had "never met the IRA" and had done his best to help negotiate a peaceful solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland.
But this morning Ms Abbott appeared to contradict that assertion, telling LBC radio: "I think that his understanding is he met with them in their capacity as activists in Sinn Fein."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/jeremy-corbyn-thinks-real-evil-western-intervention-not-isil/0 -
The conservative campaign is an embarrassment and it is quite funny watching the disaster unfold. But the fact is that people won't vote for Corbyn in the places that count, and there is no evidence emerging to the contrary. No evidence of a pro corbyn wave in nuneaton, swindon, Thurrock etc.0
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My guess is we're looking at a majority of around 60-80 at the moment. I thought that 90+ was nailed on but the wobble suggests the Tories will fall short of a true landslide. We'll see what tonight's polls say but I agree that it is the likely good performance in the midland marginals that are helping the Tories at the moment.nielh said:The conservative campaign is an embarrassment and it is quite funny watching the disaster unfold. But the fact is that people won't vote for Corbyn in the places that count, and there is no evidence emerging to the contrary. No evidence of a pro corbyn wave in nuneaton, swindon, Thurrock etc.
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Isn't there a risk that this ends up like the Remain Campaign just rehashing all their old stories about "the economic chaos of Brexit"? Namely that those stories have already been done to death, and there's nothing new to report or to catch the public's attention. Towards the end of the EU referendum, even Remain-supporting media stopped giving big coverage to "another economic expert/study predicts Brexit to be disaster", because they'd already run those stories a cajillion times and they'd got bored of it.numbertwelve said:
What they need to do now in the remaining week and a half is really step it up, go on Brexit, immigration and national security, the three areas where Labour is most vulnerable.
Where the Tories got lucky in 2015 was that the SNP surge (and the knock-on consequences for parliamentary arithmetic / government) provided the Tories with new material to talk about right up until polling day.0 -
On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
Is Corbyn an idiot? Why the f... would you allow yourself to be filmed in a shirt and slacks with shoes trying, badly, to kick a football about with the kids? It just looks pathetic and lame and completely unstatesmanlike. He's not Boris, he can't get away with idiocy.
He wants to be PM, not uncle Jeremy who is good fun at Christmas.0 -
I think it's a bit different, particularly on immigration. It's an emotive issue and Labour are still very weak there. Whereas remain was having to attack from the head rather than the heart, if you will.Danny565 said:
Isn't there a risk that this ends up like the Remain Campaign just rehashing all their old stories about "the economic chaos of Brexit"? Namely that those stories have already been done to death, and there's nothing new to report or to catch the public's attention. Towards the end of the EU referendum, even Remain-supporting media stopped giving big coverage to "another economic expert/study predicts Brexit to be disaster", because they'd already run those stories a cajillion times and they'd got bored of it.numbertwelve said:
What they need to do now in the remaining week and a half is really step it up, go on Brexit, immigration and national security, the three areas where Labour is most vulnerable.
Where the Tories got lucky in 2015 was that the SNP surge (and the knock-on consequences for parliamentary arithmetic / government) provided the Tories with new material to talk about right up until polling day.0 -
FPT:
I think the size of the majority, assuming she keeps one, is going to be relevant only to the extent it helps or impedes her passing a BrExit settlement. If the Tories get a majority of 40, and having now got the right manifesto get all the legislation through parliament and the lords without too much of a problem, and assuming the end result is more or less acceptable to the party and the bulk of the country, May will be sitting pretty.WhisperingOracle said:
Yes, and of these, if it's not between 4 - 8 % , I'll be very surprised.peter_from_putney said:There seems to be a consensus amongst PBers that this evening's might prove a defining point in the GE campaign.
Attempting to come up with my own interpretation of what these might tell us, I concluded that a Tory lead of:
< 3% means a hung Parliament resulting in the probability of Corbyn becoming PM with SNP and LibDem support. May quits.
4% - 5% means a tiny Tory majority, unlikely to survive a full 5 year term. May clings on as PM. Labour certain to win next time, with or without Corbyn who looks certain to continue as their Leader.
6% - 7% means an adequate working majority of 40 - 60 seats but May considerably weakened as PM and possibly replaced within 2 - 3 years.
8% -9% means a 60 - 80 majority but still a disappointing result for the Tories who had hoped for at least a 120 seat majority. Nevertheless calling of GE by May was arguably justified.
>10% means why all the fuss as regards the polls? And it's Goodnight Vienna as regards Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott, etc.
Conversely if she gets a massive majority, completely screws the pooch on BrExit, and we get an end result which infuriates the party and the country, she is still toast. If she has 400 MPs in parliament, it still only takes 60MPs furious with her and her settlement to start the process of replacing her.
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Astonishing, and in any 'normal' campaign, such revelations and remarks would be fatal for any serious candidate. But, as we all keep saying, this is the era of Trump and Brexit.CarlottaVance said:Oh dear......
The Shadow Home Secretary's remarks appeared to contradict Mr Corbyn's assertion yesterday that he had never met with the Republican terrorist group.
The Labour leader has come under fire for his past association with militant Republicans, including inviting convicted IRA terrorists to the House of Commons just weeks after the Brighton bombing in 1984.
In an interview on the BBC last night, Mr Corbyn insisted he had "never met the IRA" and had done his best to help negotiate a peaceful solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland.
But this morning Ms Abbott appeared to contradict that assertion, telling LBC radio: "I think that his understanding is he met with them in their capacity as activists in Sinn Fein."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/jeremy-corbyn-thinks-real-evil-western-intervention-not-isil/
Although I don't recall Trump ever saying he supported the cause of terrorism to achieve peace.
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Irrelevant, really. If the Tories end up at 43% they will have a comfortable majority whether Labour get 25% or 35%.Danny565 said:
The Labour share has gone from ~25% to ~35%.ThreeQuidder said:The Tory share has gone from 41-42% before the election was called to 43-44% now (pending tonight's polls).
I really don't see the problem.0 -
I think the Tories agree with you, but can't sell it electorally.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
Theresa may lets a suspect, reported by own family & community, travel freely to Libya & Syria & back & then murder. And this site think JC is a risk?
Look at your own leader before throwing stones.0 -
Because it's double/triple taxation effectively, and it also encourages said wealthy elderly homeowners will be minded to gift/spend their wealth earlier in their lives, so the state doesn't get their money upon on their death.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
What is the odds on a massive polling fiasco to make the Austria Presidential Elections like a byword for reliability ?Philip_Thompson said:
38% in one poll indicating that not only is Corbyn doing better than Miliband which is what we were discussing last week ... but potentially Corbyn is doing better than Cameron!Danny565 said:
The Labour share has gone from ~25% to ~35%.ThreeQuidder said:The Tory share has gone from 41-42% before the election was called to 43-44% now (pending tonight's polls).
I really don't see the problem.0 -
.....but she didn't wave him off at the airport, did she?Thorpe_Bay said:Theresa may lets a suspect, reported by own family & community, travel freely to Libya & Syria & back & then murder. And this site think JC is a risk?
Look at your own leader before throwing stones.0 -
Corbyn met Sinn Fein, not the IRA. Old news, however convincing the Venn diagrams. It's a question of hats, as Bernard explained to Jim Hacker.CarlottaVance said:Oh dear......
The Shadow Home Secretary's remarks appeared to contradict Mr Corbyn's assertion yesterday that he had never met with the Republican terrorist group.
The Labour leader has come under fire for his past association with militant Republicans, including inviting convicted IRA terrorists to the House of Commons just weeks after the Brighton bombing in 1984.
In an interview on the BBC last night, Mr Corbyn insisted he had "never met the IRA" and had done his best to help negotiate a peaceful solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland.
But this morning Ms Abbott appeared to contradict that assertion, telling LBC radio: "I think that his understanding is he met with them in their capacity as activists in Sinn Fein."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/jeremy-corbyn-thinks-real-evil-western-intervention-not-isil/0 -
The difference is that the Remain campaign, in the public mind, was being run by Cameron - who'd spent the last 10 years blaming the EU for everything and saying we would be fine if we left. So when he changed his mind his warnings weren't credible.Danny565 said:
Isn't there a risk that this ends up like the Remain Campaign just rehashing all their old stories about "the economic chaos of Brexit"? Namely that those stories have already been done to death, and there's nothing new to report or to catch the public's attention. Towards the end of the EU referendum, even Remain-supporting media stopped giving big coverage to "another economic expert/study predicts Brexit to be disaster", because they'd already run those stories a cajillion times and they'd got bored of it.numbertwelve said:
What they need to do now in the remaining week and a half is really step it up, go on Brexit, immigration and national security, the three areas where Labour is most vulnerable.0 -
Good luck with that one on the doorsteps!DecrepitJohnL said:
Corbyn met Sinn Fein, not the IRA. Old news, however convincing the Venn diagrams. It's a question of hats, as Bernard explained to Jim Hacker.CarlottaVance said:Oh dear......
The Shadow Home Secretary's remarks appeared to contradict Mr Corbyn's assertion yesterday that he had never met with the Republican terrorist group.
The Labour leader has come under fire for his past association with militant Republicans, including inviting convicted IRA terrorists to the House of Commons just weeks after the Brighton bombing in 1984.
In an interview on the BBC last night, Mr Corbyn insisted he had "never met the IRA" and had done his best to help negotiate a peaceful solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland.
But this morning Ms Abbott appeared to contradict that assertion, telling LBC radio: "I think that his understanding is he met with them in their capacity as activists in Sinn Fein."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/jeremy-corbyn-thinks-real-evil-western-intervention-not-isil/0 -
Do you consider that the same rules should apply to Scots who currently pay absolutely nothing towards their social care, irrespective of their personal wealth. Is this fair and equitable?Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
Correct, but the whole drive of the Conservatives has been to inflate property value then promise property owners it will be protected. This is a whirlwind they are now preparing to reap after sowing the wind.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
A gold star for Mr Meeks for getting in the phrase "that seminal film There's Something About Mary".
Outside of porn films, I'm not sure that there are any other literally seminal films.0 -
He never expected to be leader hence always felt safe cosying up to terrorists and willing the defeat of Britain in Ireland. Now he is leader, he has to acknowledge that past and apologise for it. I don't think he'll be getting much DUP support for a rainbow coalition tbf.DecrepitJohnL said:
Corbyn met Sinn Fein, not the IRA. Old news, however convincing the Venn diagrams. It's a question of hats, as Bernard explained to Jim Hacker.CarlottaVance said:Oh dear......
The Shadow Home Secretary's remarks appeared to contradict Mr Corbyn's assertion yesterday that he had never met with the Republican terrorist group.
The Labour leader has come under fire for his past association with militant Republicans, including inviting convicted IRA terrorists to the House of Commons just weeks after the Brighton bombing in 1984.
In an interview on the BBC last night, Mr Corbyn insisted he had "never met the IRA" and had done his best to help negotiate a peaceful solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland.
But this morning Ms Abbott appeared to contradict that assertion, telling LBC radio: "I think that his understanding is he met with them in their capacity as activists in Sinn Fein."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/jeremy-corbyn-thinks-real-evil-western-intervention-not-isil/0 -
We can never know bit I wonder if May left it too late ? Perhaps she would have done better if The Vote had been on May 4th ?0
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No the ones without wealth should not be allowed to have lived the high life and expect sensible people who scrimped and saved to fund them. What a pathetic attitude.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
+ Thisnielh said:The conservative campaign is an embarrassment and it is quite funny watching the disaster unfold. But the fact is that people won't vote for Corbyn in the places that count, and there is no evidence emerging to the contrary. No evidence of a pro corbyn wave in nuneaton, swindon, Thurrock etc.
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Ok let's look:-Thorpe_Bay said:Theresa may lets a suspect, reported by own family & community, travel freely to Libya & Syria & back & then murder. And this site think JC is a risk?
Look at your own leader before throwing stones.
TMay has put more money into the security services, Diane Abbott wants them disbanded.
TMay lost a friend to IRA bombing, John McDonnell congratulated their bombing.
Corbyn supported the IRA and their aims. TMay does not support terrorists.
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Another absolute thick idiot , what do you think all the taxation and NI is for. They pay by teh bucketload, I pay thousands a month on the off chance I need care I don't expect them to rob me again.peter_from_putney said:
Do you consider that the same rules should apply to Scots who currently pay absolutely nothing towards their social care, irrespective of their personal wealth. Is this fair and equitable?Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
Sounds like it is quite likely given what we are hearing about how non-voters are breaking but given how high the stakes are I would be more comfortable if we weren't relying upon that.AlsoIndigo said:
What is the odds on a massive polling fiasco to make the Austria Presidential Elections like a byword for reliability ?Philip_Thompson said:
38% in one poll indicating that not only is Corbyn doing better than Miliband which is what we were discussing last week ... but potentially Corbyn is doing better than Cameron!Danny565 said:
The Labour share has gone from ~25% to ~35%.ThreeQuidder said:The Tory share has gone from 41-42% before the election was called to 43-44% now (pending tonight's polls).
I really don't see the problem.0 -
That's rather my point. On the doorstep, who cares? Corbyn's colourful friends in 1980s Irish nationalism are known to every voter who's glanced at a newspaper within the past few weeks and the people who care either weren't going to vote Labour anyway or can fudge it using the SF/IRA distinction or working for peace mantra. Maybe the Russian hackers can come up with something new in the next 10 days or so but time is running out.AlsoIndigo said:
Good luck with that one on the doorsteps!DecrepitJohnL said:
Corbyn met Sinn Fein, not the IRA. Old news, however convincing the Venn diagrams. It's a question of hats, as Bernard explained to Jim Hacker.CarlottaVance said:Oh dear......
The Shadow Home Secretary's remarks appeared to contradict Mr Corbyn's assertion yesterday that he had never met with the Republican terrorist group.
The Labour leader has come under fire for his past association with militant Republicans, including inviting convicted IRA terrorists to the House of Commons just weeks after the Brighton bombing in 1984.
In an interview on the BBC last night, Mr Corbyn insisted he had "never met the IRA" and had done his best to help negotiate a peaceful solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland.
But this morning Ms Abbott appeared to contradict that assertion, telling LBC radio: "I think that his understanding is he met with them in their capacity as activists in Sinn Fein."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/jeremy-corbyn-thinks-real-evil-western-intervention-not-isil/0 -
The oldeest adage in the book "One man's terrorist is one man's freedom fighter"...MarkHopkins said:
Ok let's look:-Thorpe_Bay said:Theresa may lets a suspect, reported by own family & community, travel freely to Libya & Syria & back & then murder. And this site think JC is a risk?
Look at your own leader before throwing stones.
TMay has put more money into the security services, Diane Abbott wants them disbanded.
TMay lost a friend to IRA bombing, John McDonnell congratulated their bombing.
Corbyn supported the IRA and their aims. TMay does not support terrorists.0 -
Bit of jizz throwing in Silence of the Lambs.TheScreamingEagles said:A gold star for Mr Meeks for getting in the phrase "that seminal film There's Something About Mary".
Outside of porn films, I'm not sure that there are any other literally seminal films.0 -
They are no saying there is no evidence of cyber attackdyedwoolie said:
Sky reporting chaos and, somewhat distastefully, carnageIanB2 said:
On late Spring Bank Holiday weekend; there must be chaos at the airports.dyedwoolie said:BA cancel all flights before 6pm from Heathrow and Gatwick
BA still tight lipped as to whether it's a system failure or a cyber attack.0 -
In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.0 -
The government don't set the alert level,peter_from_putney said:In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.
BA is nothing to do with security.0 -
Haven't seen that film in ages.Theuniondivvie said:
Bit of jizz throwing in Silence of the Lambs.TheScreamingEagles said:A gold star for Mr Meeks for getting in the phrase "that seminal film There's Something About Mary".
Outside of porn films, I'm not sure that there are any other literally seminal films.
Both There's Something About Mary and Dodgeball have had profound impacts on me.0 -
Why all this angst from Tories when Lord Ashcroft polls showing a majority of 142 ?0
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American PieTheuniondivvie said:
Bit of jizz throwing in Silence of the Lambs.TheScreamingEagles said:A gold star for Mr Meeks for getting in the phrase "that seminal film There's Something About Mary".
Outside of porn films, I'm not sure that there are any other literally seminal films.0 -
1) The Government don't set the terrorist threat levelpeter_from_putney said:In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.
2) British Airways is nothing to do with the government,
3) The BA is issue is an IT issue isn't it?0 -
Or not depending on the outcome, running about as scared as a Tory voter is not always the answer. bad guys will be laughing their socks off, a quick Boo and panic ensues.peter_from_putney said:In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.0 -
https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/868442606543523840IanB2 said:
They are no saying there is no evidence of cyber attackdyedwoolie said:
Sky reporting chaos and, somewhat distastefully, carnageIanB2 said:
On late Spring Bank Holiday weekend; there must be chaos at the airports.dyedwoolie said:BA cancel all flights before 6pm from Heathrow and Gatwick
BA still tight lipped as to whether it's a system failure or a cyber attack.0 -
As Matthew Parris in the Times and Peter the Punter indeed wrote earlier here the "Brexit" election has so far been about anything else except Brexit. Labour though played a clever card in accepting we are leaving the EU albeit preferring a softer route out. It has made it hard for the Tories to make capital or reset the election on to that subject. The LDs in contrast by focussing on a second referendum as their main platform have nuked themselves. We do though need to have a proper debate about the way forward and I sincerely hope that occurs in the next ten days.0
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Not my impression in marginal seats in Greater Nottingham. But DYOR.viewcode said:
+ Thisnielh said:The conservative campaign is an embarrassment and it is quite funny watching the disaster unfold. But the fact is that people won't vote for Corbyn in the places that count, and there is no evidence emerging to the contrary. No evidence of a pro corbyn wave in nuneaton, swindon, Thurrock etc.
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Don't hold your breath, it will be cottonwool all the wayNorm said:As Matthew Parris in the Times and Peter the Punter indeed wrote earlier here the "Brexit" election has so far been about anything else except Brexit. Labour though played a clever card in accepting we are leaving the EU albeit preferring a softer route out. It has made it hard for the Tories to make capital or refocus the election on to that subject. The LDs in contrast by focussing on a second referendum as their main platform have nuked themselves. We do though need to have a proper debate about the way forward and I sincerely hope that occurs in the next ten days.
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The "other men" don't really get to vote much in this election.murali_s said:
The oldeest adage in the book "One man's terrorist is one man's freedom fighter"...MarkHopkins said:
Ok let's look:-Thorpe_Bay said:Theresa may lets a suspect, reported by own family & community, travel freely to Libya & Syria & back & then murder. And this site think JC is a risk?
Look at your own leader before throwing stones.
TMay has put more money into the security services, Diane Abbott wants them disbanded.
TMay lost a friend to IRA bombing, John McDonnell congratulated their bombing.
Corbyn supported the IRA and their aims. TMay does not support terrorists.0 -
Surely the key question then is how many of the 30ish million people that are casting a vote next week will see them as terrorists, and how many as freedom fighters, since most of them will be over 50 I think I have an inkling...murali_s said:
The oldeest adage in the book "One man's terrorist is one man's freedom fighter"...MarkHopkins said:
Ok let's look:-Thorpe_Bay said:Theresa may lets a suspect, reported by own family & community, travel freely to Libya & Syria & back & then murder. And this site think JC is a risk?
Look at your own leader before throwing stones.
TMay has put more money into the security services, Diane Abbott wants them disbanded.
TMay lost a friend to IRA bombing, John McDonnell congratulated their bombing.
Corbyn supported the IRA and their aims. TMay does not support terrorists.
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I don't think, if push came to shove, any of us would like to be solely reliant on Lord Ashcroft polls for our forecasting.Yorkcity said:Why all this angst from Tories when Lord Ashcroft polls showing a majority of 142 ?
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In the case of Dogeball, I'm guessing it's the wrench that had the impact?TheScreamingEagles said:
Haven't seen that film in ages.Theuniondivvie said:
Bit of jizz throwing in Silence of the Lambs.TheScreamingEagles said:A gold star for Mr Meeks for getting in the phrase "that seminal film There's Something About Mary".
Outside of porn films, I'm not sure that there are any other literally seminal films.
Both There's Something About Mary and Dodgeball have had profound impacts on me.0 -
Why should people w dementia have to pay for healthcare at all is my questionPong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
They do not get it I think they prefer to take houses away from people.They will also set up a new industry in valuing the property and selling it as quickly as possible probably in a fire sale to their mates at lower than market value.malcolmg said:
Another absolute thick idiot , what do you think all the taxation and NI is for. They pay by teh bucketload, I pay thousands a month on the off chance I need care I don't expect them to rob me again.peter_from_putney said:
Do you consider that the same rules should apply to Scots who currently pay absolutely nothing towards their social care, irrespective of their personal wealth. Is this fair and equitable?Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
That and Patches O'HoullihanThreeQuidder said:
In the case of Dogeball, I'm guessing it's the wrench that had the impact?TheScreamingEagles said:
Haven't seen that film in ages.Theuniondivvie said:
Bit of jizz throwing in Silence of the Lambs.TheScreamingEagles said:A gold star for Mr Meeks for getting in the phrase "that seminal film There's Something About Mary".
Outside of porn films, I'm not sure that there are any other literally seminal films.
Both There's Something About Mary and Dodgeball have had profound impacts on me.0 -
True. Nevertheless Jeremy Corbyn will make a better prime minister of the UK than Donald Trump president of the United States. LOL. A vote for Corbyn is almost certainly a less damaging outcome for the country than a vote to leave the EU. (I do accept a trade off of damaging outcomes is meaningless)FF43 said:It would be hilarious if Labour win.
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@kjohnw not for the country
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Last night I tried to log onto my BA account, and it said that it would be offline until 3am due to an upgrade. The question is, was that just them hiding a cyber attack. Or did they duck up a systems upgrade.peter_from_putney said:In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.0 -
History has shown we should look at your canvass reports with a somewhat jaundiced eye, Nick!NickPalmer said:
Not my impression in marginal seats in Greater Nottingham. But DYOR.viewcode said:
+ Thisnielh said:The conservative campaign is an embarrassment and it is quite funny watching the disaster unfold. But the fact is that people won't vote for Corbyn in the places that count, and there is no evidence emerging to the contrary. No evidence of a pro corbyn wave in nuneaton, swindon, Thurrock etc.
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You know what would be really nice? If one of the billionaires in the UK built a load of free hospitals/care homes for the elderly. Aren't there a load of big old country manors that could be put to better use?0
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Labour's policy is soft BrExit, when they find out in a year's time that there is no Soft BrExit, only take-it-or-leave-it BrExit, and that the rest of the EU has had enough of us and doesnt want us back, then things get interesting.FF43 said:
True. Nevertheless Jeremy Corbyn will make a better prime minister of the UK than Donald Trump president of the United States. LOL. A vote for Corbyn is almost certainly a less damaging outcome for the country than a vote to leave the EU. (I do accept a trade off of damaging outcomes is meaningless)FF43 said:It would be hilarious if Labour win.
@kjohnw not for the country0 -
Their problem is that political parties can't easily step up 3 things at once. The media pick one, virtually ignore the others, and when you try to come back to them they say "oh, you said that before" and stick in somewhere on page 7. I think they have a strategic choice of whether to focus on what they'll do (Brexit, immigration) or the alleged defects of Mr Corbyn.numbertwelve said:The Tories have rested on their laurels too much so far in this campaign. I think they thought that Labour would implode and they could just sit back and watch.
The thing is, with the benefit of hindsight that looked to be a very risky strategy. Labours manifesto was always going to be populist and headline-grabbing. They needed to be able to explain why it was a bad idea to pursue these policies. Instead they've relied on leadership qualities, which I guess is a plus for them but has the disadvantage of being somewhat vacuous when it comes to the crunch.
What they need to do now in the remaining week and a half is really step it up, go on Brexit, immigration and national security, the three areas where Labour is most vulnerable.
A practical factor is that the freepost literature will have already been printed and should arrive in a week or so. Presumably the Tory ones are full of "strong and stable" stuff, which they've shut up about for obvious reasons this week. Do they try to revive it in campaigning and hope people forget the social care stuff?0 -
Yes. But the public won't have it. And then socialists like @bigjohnowls take to the street in defence of pensioners with multi-million pound homes.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
Has Ashcroft polling been largely ignored in this election? What is the time frame under which it operates?numbertwelve said:
I don't think, if push came to shove, any of us would like to be solely reliant on Lord Ashcroft polls for our forecasting.Yorkcity said:Why all this angst from Tories when Lord Ashcroft polls showing a majority of 142 ?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/
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Something About Mary is my all time fav film.0
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Or £200k homes.TOPPING said:
Yes. But the public won't have it. And then socialists like @bigjohnowls take to the street in defence of pensioners with multi-million pound homes.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
Massacring a score of teenage girls in England is just a " quick boo " for Braveheart MalcG.malcolmg said:
Or not depending on the outcome, running about as scared as a Tory voter is not always the answer. bad guys will be laughing their socks off, a quick Boo and panic ensues.peter_from_putney said:In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.0 -
This is the weekend quite a few banks and other organisations carrying out IT upgrades/maintenance.rcs1000 said:
Last night I tried to log onto my BA account, and it said that it would be offline until 3am due to an upgrade. The question is, was that just them hiding a cyber attack. Or did they duck up a systems upgrade.peter_from_putney said:In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.
I suspect it is an upgrade gone wrong0 -
According to BA, Edinburgh airport is coping because "they have a backup system in operation". Raises an obvious question about Heathrow and Gatwick?0
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a load ?isam said:You know what would be really nice? If one of the billionaires in the UK built a load of free hospitals/care homes for the elderly. Aren't there a load of big old country manors that could be put to better use?
The new a new hospital was estimated as around 600m (based on the cost of building the new QE Hospital in Birmingham). So a couple or so might be more realistic.0 -
Because when the NHS was set up it was for treatment only, not palliative/end-of-life care. And as we all know, the NHS is sacred and it is blasphemy to suggest changes.isam said:
Why should people w dementia have to pay for healthcare at all is my questionPong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
And Mike's busy and I'll be covering the polls tonight.CarlottaVance said:
So I'm expecting a quiet, uneventful night.0 -
More a question for BA. The other airlines don't have a problem.IanB2 said:According to BA, Edinburgh airport is coping because "they have a backup system in operation". Raises an obvious question about Heathrow and Gatwick?
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Yawn , mentally unstable stalker makes up more horse manure. If only you could have a cyber attack.MonikerDiCanio said:
Massacring a score of teenage girls in England is just a " quick boo " for Braveheart MalcG.malcolmg said:
Or not depending on the outcome, running about as scared as a Tory voter is not always the answer. bad guys will be laughing their socks off, a quick Boo and panic ensues.peter_from_putney said:In view of British Airways' drastic action in cancelling all their flights this afternoon, was the Government wrong to reduce the perceived level terror threat so soon?
It would seem that might just possibly be the case.0 -
It's social care that they are paying for, which was never part of the NHS.isam said:
Why should people w dementia have to pay for healthcare at all is my questionPong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?
If the person has severe health needs as a result of dementia or anything else their care is free (It's called Continuing Health Care).
The difference between health and social care is often contentious but it hinges on the severity, complexity, frequency etc of the needs0 -
It's been said before but the change in policy will have no effect on pensioners. In fact if implemented it would reduce the effect on pensioners. The people who lose out are those set to inherit from them. Although if you were unlucky enough to have parents whose wealth was tied up in assets other than property then you were losing it anyway. I also think there is a perception issue with how much providing care in the home (which is what the changed policy effects) will actually cost. The real cost is in residential care, and the house is already factored into that.TOPPING said:
Yes. But the public won't have it. And then socialists like @bigjohnowls take to the street in defence of pensioners with multi-million pound homes.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0 -
What is the Tories' USP? Strength, stability, and a flavour of Brexit which they can't describe but which will bring strength and stability but mustn't be jeopardised by having a general election, not even a year later? I'm struggling even to define the flavour of Brexit that they are promising. Trust them, because they'll do whatever's best? They're who we need at the helm during times of trouble? Well-managed change? Why call an election then? It doesn't seem to hold together at all. The brand has been punctured.
Put that against tuition fees, care homes and rent control (just those three are very important to many people, far more so than Brexit and abstract promises), and then there is social housing, rail nationalisation too, and if people ask which party is the party of the NHS, well the colour of the NHS may be blue, but seriously! Labour's USP is social protection.
There may even be a "shy Labour" vote. The Labour livery looks a bit kitsch, and the Labour leader is softly-spoken - not in a Clint Eastwood way - and he has a neck beard. But social protection...yes, this is what people want. I know he's changed his position on some things, but he still exudes principle. Labour are reminiscent of Better Together during the indyref. They weren't very "in your face" at all, and they had far fewer banners up than the "Yes" campaign. They were perceived not as cool, not as something you wanted to shout your support for, but as right.
Brexit and immigration aren't important in this election. There would have to be one hell of a Cologne-type story.
Whingeing on about Corbyn and the IRA in the 1980s looks like weakness. And it has the big problem that if the Tories want to play this on personalities (or character) then their own leader gets looked at too. And her presentation looks superficial - the chunky necklaces, the shoes, the hairstyle - she's "That Bloody Woman", mark 2.
This could be the first time I place other than a tiny bet on an outcome I actually want. I'm thinking it might be sensible to wait for one or two more polls only.
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Maybe Con should try to frighten Leave supporters by saying "We won't actually leave under Corbyn" - which could well be true in the sense that a Corbyn Minority Government would be dependent on SNP / LD - neither of whom want to leave.Norm said:As Matthew Parris in the Times and Peter the Punter indeed wrote earlier here the "Brexit" election has so far been about anything else except Brexit. Labour though played a clever card in accepting we are leaving the EU albeit preferring a softer route out. It has made it hard for the Tories to make capital or reset the election on to that subject. The LDs in contrast by focussing on a second referendum as their main platform have nuked themselves. We do though need to have a proper debate about the way forward and I sincerely hope that occurs in the next ten days.
Con need a clear simple selling point - Leave supporters thinking only Con will actually leave the EU would be a very powerful one.0 -
**increases stock holding in Procter & Gamble**CarlottaVance said:0 -
I'm one of them (in a small way... it's not a Georgian manor house) and I agree completely. I should be subsidising others. I welcomed May's proposal from the start.Pong said:On social care - I'm struggling to understand why there should be a cap at all?
Elderly homeowners with significant housing wealth should be paying for their care & also subsidising elderly non-homeowners without wealth who need care.
No?0
