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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manif

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  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...

    A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.

    Brexit and immigration cut they know that and what they want are tougher border controls
    Brexit means brexit? It's a trite, inane phrase. It's not a policy.
    We are finding out during this election campaign that while Brexit means Brexit, Brexit also means Brexit, which seems to have come as a surprise to some.

    I can't understand why.
    You are quite wrong, Alastair. It is the revelation that Brexit means Brexit that wrongfooted most people. I had expected Brexit to mean Brexit but I too got that wrong. It does mean Brexit after all.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Brom said:

    Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.

    She's at the G7.
    She can't take time out 5 or 10 minutes to make a statement? I have little confidence in her if she cannot deal with one issue leave alone 27 other countries and various sub national parliaments when negotiating Brexit.
    She might of course wait until later today so its fresh for the Andrew Neil interview/10 o' clock news. I'm pretty sure she's contactable and up to speed.
    Is she awake?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.

    She's at the G7.
    She can't take time out 5 or 10 minutes to make a statement? I have little confidence in her if she cannot deal with one issue leave alone 27 other countries and various sub national parliaments when negotiating Brexit.
    Why interrupt the chatter on your appeaser enemy when his disgusting speech is all over the media ?
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Theresa May: "Who governs?"
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    I've just been VI'd by YouGov.
    Also included a 'How will you vote in Hertsmere?' question.

    LOL another pb Conservative polled by Yougov , their samples are really representative of the whole electorate aren't they ?
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    At Betfair, what happens if two parties tie for most seats? Do both backers and layers lose, or what? (I've asked them, but they're taking ages to reply.)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    No she is delivering the Brexit most Leavers want ie which puts immigration and sovereignty first

    No, she isn't. And may never at this rate
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712

    Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.

    She's at the G7.
    "We fight on. We fight to win."
    Those were the days!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    dyingswan said:

    If , as Corbyn argues there is a direct correlation between involvement in foreign wars and jihadi terrorism can he or one of his supporters on here please remind us of the part played by Belgium and Sweden in war.

    Not that I'm a Corbyn supporter, but I'd presume that the Jihadis view themselves as fighters against repression by Christians as a whole rather than by individual nations, in much the same way as we frequently lump Muslims together as a single entity.
    Exactly. And most of the terrorists are home-grown people creating incidents near to where they live, in environments with which they are familiar and where they are more likely to succeed. That Western foreign policy is helping to fuel their recruitment is not contradictory; there is no central mastermind organising where these attacks take place.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    edited May 2017
    I'm a Remainer Conservative voter, and yes I would be cacking myself if Corbyn won. A country run by Corbyn's vision and on that manifesto would be a disaster.

    A massive Keynesian spending splurge (Keynes argued for doing that when the economy needed it but also advocated saving during the good times also to help pay for it, we don't have that right now) that we would have to grow a money rainforest to pay for.

    I also wouldn't feel safe at all living under a Corbyn run Britain with his policies on shoot-to-kill and his soft stance on terrorism and defending the nation.

    Oh and a return to giving power to the Unions that crippled this country in the 70's.

    I had mixed views on May always have, but she's a survivor from what was seen as a career killer in the Home Office (how many political scalps has that office taken?). So I gave her the benefit of the doubt.

    But Lackluster performances at PMQ's against a leader that got annihilated by Cameron pretty much every week made me take notice. And since then I have not at all been impressed especially with that manifesto and then whole talk about raising taxes before the campaign launched. Then I hear all the rumors about her being too hands on and Brown like wanting to control everything, not a good sign.

    I still think she will win probably at best say a majority in the 50's though it could be less than that. Unthinkable a few weeks or months ago and there will be questions asked about her and the campaign if that is the way it plays out.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has f*cked this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    Mrs May has promised a Brexit that will improve the living standards of millions of ordinary Britons. She will be judged on her delivery of that.

    No she is delivering the Brexit most Leavers want ie which puts immigration and sovereignty first
    She has delivered sod all. As you know full well. You are a good poster but your slavish, sycophantic role reversal on this issue is taxing, to say the least.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited May 2017
    TGOHF said:

    Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.

    She's at the G7.
    She can't take time out 5 or 10 minutes to make a statement? I have little confidence in her if she cannot deal with one issue leave alone 27 other countries and various sub national parliaments when negotiating Brexit.
    Why interrupt the chatter on your appeaser enemy when his disgusting speech is all over the media ?
    She has done nothing to address Corbyn's points. Either befuddled, ill or lying in a dark corner sucking her thumb. Weak and wobbly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone with a house ...................

    For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budget
    You think the country will go bankrupt? The IFS think there is a £9bn black hole in Labs manifesto dont they, chicken feed.

    Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?
    Labour would worsen the deficit and their higher taxes would slow growth and lead to a brain drain, Corbyn would weaken border controls and immigration policy and go soft on ISIS
    BOOM time is almost here !!!! Infrastructure spending, School repaired, Council houses to be built and MONEY is CHEAP. Cheapest in 300 years.
    Money is only cheap because we've been reducing the deficit through austerity. For nations woth out of control deficits they aren't trying to control money is EXPENSIVE.
    And even with this "cheap" money, we are still spending £50bn a year paying interest on our debts.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has f*cked this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    Mrs May has promised a Brexit that will improve the living standards of millions of ordinary Britons. She will be judged on her delivery of that.

    No she is delivering the Brexit most Leavers want ie which puts immigration and sovereignty first

    We'll see. Most Leavers are not all Leavers - and there were an awful lot of Remainers too. Most of them have accepted the result, but will not necessarily accept what it leads to.

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has screwed this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    The deeper you dig into the Labour manifesto you realise it's just a fantasy. "Taxes will have to rise to their highest level ever".

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited May 2017
    Barnesian said:

    I've just been VI'd by YouGov.
    Also included a 'How will you vote in Hertsmere?' question.

    Ditto here. With the names of the four candidates standing in Richmond Park.

    I think it is forcing out the tactical voting answers which increases Labour share and decreases LibDem share but increases the chances of more Labour AND LibDem seats.
    There will not be more Labour seats because the UKIP vote going Tory in Labour Leave seats will outweigh any LDs going Labour in Tory Remain seats. There may be more LD seats as there are only 2 LD Leave seats and more Tory Remain seats which they could win through Labour tactical voting. The Tories are also making a small net gain from Labour with yougov and a small net loss to the LDs relative to 2015
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    This is fun...

    Tories take Sheffield Hallam....

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/868072474449260545
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone with a house ...................

    For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budget
    You think the country will go bankrupt? The IFS think there is a £9bn black hole in Labs manifesto dont they, chicken feed.

    Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?
    Labour would worsen the deficit and their higher taxes would slow growth and lead to a brain drain, Corbyn would weaken border controls and immigration policy and go soft on ISIS
    BOOM time is almost here !!!! Infrastructure spending, School repaired, Council houses to be built and MONEY is CHEAP. Cheapest in 300 years.
    Money is only cheap because we've been reducing the deficit through austerity. For nations woth out of control deficits they aren't trying to control money is EXPENSIVE.
    If Labour get in Gilt yields will rocket...they wont be able to control that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone with a house ...................

    For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budget
    You think the country will go bankrupt? The IFS think there is a £9bn black hole in Labs manifesto dont they, chicken feed.

    Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?
    Labour would worsen the deficit and their higher taxes would slow growth and lead to a brain drain, Corbyn would weaken border controls and immigration policy and go soft on ISIS
    BOOM time is almost here !!!! Infrastructure spending, School repaired, Council houses to be built and MONEY is CHEAP. Cheapest in 300 years.
    Money is only cheap because we've been reducing the deficit through austerity. For nations woth out of control deficits they aren't trying to control money is EXPENSIVE.
    Money will get cheaper still, as inflation rises above interest rates.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.

    She's at the G7.
    She can't take time out 5 or 10 minutes to make a statement? I have little confidence in her if she cannot deal with one issue leave alone 27 other countries and various sub national parliaments when negotiating Brexit.
    She's not going to interrupt the G7 to make political statements as leader of her party, only if she has to say something urgent as PM.

    She'll return from Italy tonight, meanwhile the media, IFS and a few Labour MPs are giving Corbyn enough rope to hang himself.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Fallon strong against a full frontal Burley mauling
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has f*cked this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    Mrs May has promised a Brexit that will improve the living standards of millions of ordinary Britons. She will be judged on her delivery of that.

    No she is delivering the Brexit most Leavers want ie which puts immigration and sovereignty first

    We'll see. Most Leavers are not all Leavers - and there were an awful lot of Remainers too. Most of them have accepted the result, but will not necessarily accept what it leads to.

    No the Leavers she has won over are all hard Brexiteers direct from UKIP
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    IanB2 said:

    TudorRose said:

    The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.
    She can't be that busy - she just sent me an email.
    Can you email her back and ask her what the fuck she thinks she's playing at then?
    Dear Mr or Ms Rose,

    I will be out of the office in Sicily starting today returning next week. During this time I will have no access to emails as MI6 confiscate my phone so that I can ignore SMS messages from Donald. If you need immediate assistance during my absence, please contact Mr N. Timothy on Monday, at bignick@no10.gov.uk.

    Otherwise I will respond to your emails as soon as possible upon my return.

    Warm Regards,

    Theresa
    It actually says;

    The last few days have been some of the most difficult that we have faced as a nation. All acts of terrorism are cowardly attacks on innocent people, but the attack in Manchester stands out for its appalling, sickening cowardice.

    We experienced the worst of humanity in Manchester, but we also saw the best. The cowardice of the attacker met the bravery of the emergency services and the people of Manchester. The attempt to divide us met countless acts of kindness that brought people closer together. And in the days ahead, those must be the things we remember.

    As I said on the steps of Number 10, our country and our way of life will always prevail. And in just under two weeks’ time millions of us will go to the polls, exercising our democratic right to vote.

    Our local campaigns resumed yesterday – and our national campaign today. Our candidates and volunteers will be knocking on doors across the country, talking to voters about the issues facing Britain.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    perdix said:

    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has screwed this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    The deeper you dig into the Labour manifesto you realise it's just a fantasy. "Taxes will have to rise to their highest level ever".

    The deeper you dig into the Conservative manifesto, you realise they've dropped the commitments not to raise tax, but they've not said what taxes they will raise or by how much.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    This is fun...

    Tories take Sheffield Hallam....

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/868072474449260545

    Modesty prevents me from mentioning the PBer who first flagged up Con gain Hallam, at 16/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has f*cked this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    Mrs May has promised a Brexit that will improve the living standards of millions of ordinary Britons. She will be judged on her delivery of that.

    No she is delivering the Brexit most Leavers want ie which puts immigration and sovereignty first
    She has delivered sod all. As you know full well. You are a good poster but your slavish, sycophantic role reversal on this issue is taxing, to say the least.
    I voted Remain I have no great desire for it but the polling was clear that Leave voters put immigration control and regaining sovereignty first ahead of economics, for Remain voters it was mainly economics which was key
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Rafael Behr just succinctly demolished Corbyn's speech and approach to foreign policy - 'kind of an elaborate hand wringing'. Barry Gardiner's face told you everything you needed to know. He looked like he'd literally just shat his pants.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    Fallon strong against a full frontal Burley mauling

    'Burley mauling' - the ultimate oxymoron!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    Dura_Ace said:

    We'll probably still end up with something that's branded as Brexit although fuck knows what it will actually be.

    We will Brexit. That ship has sailed and will eventually be becalmed in the Sea of Mediocrity. We will pay out shedloads of cash to buy back some of the influence we have lost. We will haggle over many years eventually cobbling together a deal of sorts, which will be a better than nothing but not as good as before. We will accept it and will spend our time simultaneously trying to undermine, disregard and co-opt our EU friends. We will be largely ignored by third parties who are aware the EU is the only show in town.

    That's assuming the EU holds together. If it collapses into a heap of dust due to its contradictions, the picture will be very different.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    perdix said:

    The deeper you dig into the Labour manifesto you realise it's just a fantasy. "Taxes will have to rise to their highest level ever".

    Thatcher cut the top rate of income tax from 83% to 60% to 40%.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?

    They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
    So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
    There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
    What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.
    Yougov showed a small net gain from Labour by the Tories and from the Tories by the LDs and from the LDs by Labour and from UKIP by Labour. The biggest net gain remained from UKIP to Tory
    My point was that we are reaching the point where anti-Tory tactical voting could be key.

    There is no way from the national VI polls to tell the difference between a) a UNS towards Labour away from the LibDems, UKIP and Greens and b) a swing towards whichever candidate in each seat stands the best chance of beating the Tory
    We know that 400 seats voted Leave and in most of those the UKIP vote is going Tory, we know 200 seats voted Remain and in most of those the LD vote is going Labour with some Labour votes going LD in LD target seats. I therefore expect the Tories to have a better performance in terms of Labour seat gains than their lead in the national popular vote
    I think it is misleading to label a seat as "Leave" or "Remain" if the result was within say 10% of 50/50 which many were.

    There is a large anti-Tory centre-left group which is tactically voting and is not put off by the Corbyn factor. Some might even be beginning to admire him.

    There is also a sizable wealthy centre-right group that is very anti-Brexit.

    And now there is another group. Just About Managing in their 40s or 50s who are relying on eventually inheriting their parents' wealth who are saying WTF!!

    This is shaping up for the perfect storm for the Tories.

    Nevertheless I still expect them to get an overall majority. But it could be another Cameron style over confident misjudgment on Theresa's part.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299

    Fallon strong against a full frontal Burley mauling

    Mind bleach
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    perdix said:

    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has screwed this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    The deeper you dig into the Labour manifesto you realise it's just a fantasy. "Taxes will have to rise to their highest level ever".

    The odd thing is - it isn't a fantasy.

    With the exception of the triple lock (perhaps), it's perfectly viable.

    We'd have a moderately more European tax/spend ratio.

    Corbyn isn't a very good marxist.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Bit nostalgic for DC, sleeves rolled up on a Cornish peninsula, campaigning hard until the very last. The current Tory campaign is about an energetic as ME.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    edited May 2017
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has f*cked this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    Mrs May has promised a Brexit that will improve the living standards of millions of ordinary Britons. She will be judged on her delivery of that.

    No she is delivering the Brexit most Leavers want ie which puts immigration and sovereignty first

    We'll see. Most Leavers are not all Leavers - and there were an awful lot of Remainers too. Most of them have accepted the result, but will not necessarily accept what it leads to.

    No the Leavers she has won over are all hard Brexiteers direct from UKIP

    Delivering the Leave they want will not necessarily play well with the vast majority of voters who are not former UKIP supporters. There is no doubt May will win and probably win very well. It's what happens after that which is interesting. Your view that voters will happily accept any Brexit outcome that reduces immigration is not one that I share. We shall see.

  • Upto 71% of voter registration requests on final day were duplicates https://www.lgcplus.com/7018273.article
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    This is fun...

    Tories take Sheffield Hallam....

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/868072474449260545

    Modesty prevents me from mentioning the PBer who first flagged up Con gain Hallam, at 16/1
    I have labour at 9/1 :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    What happened to the Thanet South case?
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    I do admire the Tories here who are calm and resolute under fire. I am wibbly wobbly all over the place because of the developing "situation".
    I am obviously not officer class.
    " Steady the Blues"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Pong said:

    perdix said:

    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has screwed this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    The deeper you dig into the Labour manifesto you realise it's just a fantasy. "Taxes will have to rise to their highest level ever".

    The odd thing is - it isn't a fantasy.

    With the exception of the triple lock (perhaps), it's perfectly viable.

    We'd have a moderately more European tax/spend ratio.

    Corbyn isn't a very good marxist.
    Indeed. He spent last weekend arguing that rich property owners should be allowed to pass on more to their children.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Upto 71% of voter registration requests on final day were duplicates https://www.lgcplus.com/7018273.article

    lol .
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702
    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...

    A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.

    Brexit and immigration cut they know that and what they want are tougher border controls
    Brexit means brexit? It's a trite, inane phrase. It's not a policy.
    We are finding out during this election campaign that while Brexit means Brexit, Brexit also means Brexit, which seems to have come as a surprise to some.

    I can't understand why.
    You are quite wrong, Alastair. It is the revelation that Brexit means Brexit that wrongfooted most people. I had expected Brexit to mean Brexit but I too got that wrong. It does mean Brexit after all.
    I thought it meant BrExit

    Have I got that wrong

    Definitely not voting Labour if it means Brexit instead

    Corbyn can fook right off
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Pong said:

    perdix said:

    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has screwed this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    The deeper you dig into the Labour manifesto you realise it's just a fantasy. "Taxes will have to rise to their highest level ever".

    The odd thing is - it isn't a fantasy.

    With the exception of the triple lock (perhaps), it's perfectly viable.

    We'd have a moderately more European tax/spend ratio.

    Corbyn isn't a very good marxist.
    By the time the Tories have finished with their stealth taxes, new charges, and fiddling about with NI and tax reliefs etc. taxes are likely to finish significantly higher either way
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Pong said:

    Corbyn isn't a very good marxist.

    Corbyn is not any kind of Marxist. From the first page of the Labour manifesto:

    "Labour understands that the creation of wealth is a collective endeavour between workers, entrepreneurs, investors and government. Each contributes and each must share fairly in the rewards."

    That is not what Marxists believe.

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Ruth tying herself up in knots on immigration !

    https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/868045572334374912
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2017

    This is fun...

    Tories take Sheffield Hallam....

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/868072474449260545

    LDs gain Brighton Pavillion.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I do admire the Tories here who are calm and resolute under fire. I am wibbly wobbly all over the place because of the developing "situation".
    I am obviously not officer class.
    " Steady the Blues"

    Courage and shuffle the deck dear Fatty. Retire to the garden with a glass and enjoy the weather.

    Mr Curtice will be along with his exit poll before you know it with the tidings that the dreadful pinkos have been vanquished once more.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    Cyan said:

    Pong said:

    Corbyn isn't a very good marxist.

    Corbyn is not any kind of Marxist. From the first page of the Labour manifesto:

    "Labour understands that the creation of wealth is a collective endeavour between workers, entrepreneurs, investors and government. Each contributes and each must share fairly in the rewards."

    That is not what Marxists believe.

    Correct. The caricatures of his and his team's position on domestic economic policy are the least convincing. In other areas, the caricatures are somewhat nearer the truth.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    calum said:

    Ruth tying herself up in knots on immigration !

    Not really. She asked the question, why do immigrants to the UK find Scotland less attractive than England.

    Could it be nutters driving around telling people to leave, perhaps?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    TGOHF said:

    I do admire the Tories here who are calm and resolute under fire. I am wibbly wobbly all over the place because of the developing "situation".
    I am obviously not officer class.
    " Steady the Blues"

    Courage and shuffle the deck dear Fatty. Retire to the garden with a glass and enjoy the weather.

    Mr Curtice will be along with his exit poll before you know it with the tidings that the dreadful pinkos have been vanquished once more.
    HUZZAH!!!!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    This is fun...

    Tories take Sheffield Hallam....

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/868072474449260545

    LDs gain Brighton Pavillion.
    That would be impressive, given they aren't contesting it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Scott_P said:

    calum said:

    Ruth tying herself up in knots on immigration !

    Not really. She asked the question, why do immigrants to the UK find Scotland less attractive than England.

    Could it be nutters driving around telling people to leave, perhaps?
    Or the weather?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    In these troubled and divisive times I think we can all link arms and rejoice that Katie Hopkins has lost her job.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Cyan said:

    Pong said:

    Corbyn isn't a very good marxist.

    Corbyn is not any kind of Marxist. From the first page of the Labour manifesto:

    "Labour understands that the creation of wealth is a collective endeavour between workers, entrepreneurs, investors and government. Each contributes and each must share fairly in the rewards."

    That is not what Marxists believe.

    Correct. The caricatures of his and his team's position on domestic economic policy are the least convincing. In other areas, the caricatures are somewhat nearer the truth.
    Hmm. But they don't really believe what they have written in the manifesto do they?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702

    This is fun...

    Tories take Sheffield Hallam....

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/868072474449260545

    Modesty prevents me from mentioning the PBer who first flagged up Con gain Hallam, at 16/1
    Tories gain Chesrefield


    file in bin
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Or the weather?

    Hotter in Scotland than Spain. Again.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Jason said:

    Rafael Behr just succinctly demolished Corbyn's speech and approach to foreign policy - 'kind of an elaborate hand wringing'. Barry Gardiner's face told you everything you needed to know. He looked like he'd literally just shat his pants.

    WTF is he ?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2017
    On reflection I think the bit of Corbyn's speech that grates the most was when he addressed the armed forces and said 'You're doing your duty......'
    There was a disdain in his voice that was unmistakable.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Scott_P said:

    calum said:

    Ruth tying herself up in knots on immigration !

    Not really. She asked the question, why do immigrants to the UK find Scotland less attractive than England.

    Could it be nutters driving around telling people to leave, perhaps?
    Or the weather?
    Or the midges? You finally escape your mosquito-infested slum in Mogadishu to be bitten to within an inch of your life in Oban.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jessicaelgot: Tories and Lib Dems both keeping things quite low key even though campaign officially restarted. David Davis cancelled his speech....
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    The Mail and Sun will know they're facing a big test of their influence, now. Expect all the big guns to come out, as with the absolute blizzard of "IRA TRAITOR FAILS TO SING NATIONAL ANTHEM" propaganda pieces at exactly the moment Corbyn won the leadership, to set the tone on him early on.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    I do admire the Tories here who are calm and resolute under fire. I am wibbly wobbly all over the place because of the developing "situation".
    I am obviously not officer class.
    " Steady the Blues"

    Lol
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    This is fun...

    Tories take Sheffield Hallam....

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/868072474449260545

    Clegg gets 18%, Lab 33% and Con double Clegg's vote at 36%
    Doesn't seem likely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    This is fun...

    Tories take Sheffield Hallam....

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/868072474449260545

    LDs gain Brighton Pavillion.
    Putting up a candidate would help them along a little...
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited May 2017

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    Corbyn's approach to terrorism - 'a kind of elaborate hand wringing'. Said by a Guardian columnist.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    QTWTAIY

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/manchester-attack-will-knitted-lefts-explanation-election-defeat/

    "COFFEE HOUSE
    Will Corbyn’s supporters blame their election defeat on the Manchester attack?
    Nick Cohen"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    The Mail and Sun will know they're facing a big test of their influence, now. Expect all the big guns to come out, as with the absolute blizzard of "IRA TRAITOR FAILS TO SING NATIONAL ANTHEM" propaganda pieces at exactly the moment Corbyn won the leadership, to set the tone on him early on.
    People have heard it for 2 years, though. There are diminishing marginal returns on this. How about some positive reasons to vote Conservative?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has f*cked this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    Mrs May has promised a Brexit that will improve the living standards of millions of ordinary Britons. She will be judged on her delivery of that.

    No she is delivering the Brexit most Leavers want ie which puts immigration and sovereignty first

    We'll see. Most Leavers are not all Leavers - and there were an awful lot of Remainers too. Most of them have accepted the result, but will not necessarily accept what it leads to.

    No the Leavers she has won over are all hard Brexiteers direct from UKIP

    Delivering the Leave they want will not necessarily play well with the vast majority of voters who are not former UKIP supporters. There is no doubt May will win and probably win very well. It's what happens after that which is interesting. Your view that voters will happily accept any Brexit outcome that reduces immigration is not one that I share. We shall see.

    We know from yougov that Labour has a comfortable lead with Remainers while over 60% of Leavers ate voting Tory, people are already making their choice
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176

    This is fun...

    Tories take Sheffield Hallam....

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/868072474449260545

    LDs gain Brighton Pavillion.
    Con pushing a third of the vote in Bootle and Bolsover becomes a fairly safe Tory held marginal.

    Think we can file this under junk and move on....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    We have to assume she wanted this to go viral...

    https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/868074244764299264

    Lucky there are no selfies of her with the current First Minister. Or the previous one.

    Oh...
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    edited May 2017

    If Labour get in Gilt yields will rocket...they wont be able to control that.

    The genie is out of the bottle I'm afraid, a sovereign currency issuer has absolute control over gilt yields, it can buy them with printed money, as Brown, Osborne, and so on, did willingly, (including rolling the interest paid to the Bank of England back into the national accounts and treating it as a windfall).

    Beyond a certain point doing this (particularly if you're in a boom or a recession caused by something other than a credit collapse, demand shock, or crisis of overproduction) means your currency collapses and people start demanding payment for imported goods in their own, or another hard, currency, but that's the constraint now, gilt yields themselves - completely fixable.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone with a house ...................

    For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budget
    You think the country will go bankrupt? The IFS think there is a £9bn black hole in Labs manifesto dont they, chicken feed.

    Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?
    Labour would worsen the deficit and their higher taxes would slow growth and lead to a brain drain, Corbyn would weaken border controls and immigration policy and go soft on ISIS
    BOOM time is almost here !!!! Infrastructure spending, School repaired, Council houses to be built and MONEY is CHEAP. Cheapest in 300 years.
    Money is only cheap because we've been reducing the deficit through austerity. For nations woth out of control deficits they aren't trying to control money is EXPENSIVE.
    Bugger all ! Money has been cheap since end of 2008 - all over the world ! The German and French yield curves are actually well below ours.

    Our current "cheap" money is relatively expensive. Labour's manifesto only has a small amount of extra borrowing. Most of the pledges are matched by taxation.

    Are the Tory pledges fully costed ? Let's start with the Social Care scheme............? You can't even tell the cost because the line has not been drawn yet.
  • TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    surbiton said:

    You mean the Fallon who went to Syria to congratulate Assad on winning his election with 99% of the votes. That Fallon ?
    He went as part of an all party delegation way back in 2007. They did not congratulate anybody on anything.

    And Corbyn visited Assad in 2009, a visit organised by an anti Israel group and led by that well known anti jew Baroness Tong. I do not know if Corbyn congratulated anybody but when he got back he chose to write, in the Morning Star of course, that the Balfour Declaration was 'infamous' and 'once again the Israeli tail wags the US dog'.

    Corbyn is a regular buyer/ reader of the Morning Star, not just Canary. He said that the Morning Star was ''the most precious and only voice we have in the daily media.''
    https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-751f-Your-support-is-what-makes-this-paper-so-different#.WSgcnGjyvIU
    ''I look forward to working with Ben in promoting socialism''
    https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-d46e-New-editor-hailed-by-leading-lefties#.WSgc0WjyvIU

    'Socialism' BTW is that mechanism whereby lefty governments take money off people who have it and give it away to anybody willing to piss it u the wall.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    dixiedean said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    The Mail and Sun will know they're facing a big test of their influence, now. Expect all the big guns to come out, as with the absolute blizzard of "IRA TRAITOR FAILS TO SING NATIONAL ANTHEM" propaganda pieces at exactly the moment Corbyn won the leadership, to set the tone on him early on.
    People have heard it for 2 years, though. There are diminishing marginal returns on this. How about some positive reasons to vote Conservative?
    Vote for misery, vote for May.

    Nothing positive to look forward under a May government. That is the flaw at the heart of her campaign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?

    They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
    So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
    There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
    What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.
    Yougov showed a small net gain from Labour by the Tories and from the Tories by the LDs and from the LDs by Labour and from UKIP by Labour. The biggest net gain remained from UKIP to Tory
    My point was that we are reaching the point where anti-Tory tactical voting could be key.

    There is no way from the national VI polls to tell ating the Tory
    We know that 400 seats voted Leave and in most of those the UKIP vote pular vote
    I think it is misleading to label a seat as "Leave" or "Remain" if the result was within say 10% of 50/50 which many were.

    There is a large anti-Tory centre-left group which is tactically voting and is not put off by the Corbyn factor. Some might even be beginning to admire him.

    There is also a sizable wealthy centre-right group that is very anti-Brexit.

    And now there is another group. Just About Managing in their 40s or 50s who are relying on eventually inheriting their parents' wealth who are saying WTF!!

    This is shaping up for the perfect storm for the Tories.

    Nevertheless I still expect them to get an overall majority. But it could be another Cameron style over confident misjudgment on Theresa's part.
    In most Labour Leave marginal seats the UKIP vote alone ould tip the balance to the Tories even if no movement at all from Labour to Tory and yougov shows the Tories still making a small net gain from Labour even if they are making a small net loss to the LDs. The LD vote in Labour Leave seats is too small for Labour to get much benefit from tactical voting. All those middle aged inheritance hopefuls got a big Tory inheritance tax cut last year which McDonnell would reverse and of course care costs will now be capped
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS

    For anyone with a house ...................

    For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budget
    You think the country will go bankrupt? The IFS think there is a £9bn black hole in Labs manifesto dont they, chicken feed.

    Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?
    Labour would worsen the deficit and their higher taxes would slow growth and lead to a brain drain, Corbyn would weaken border controls and immigration policy and go soft on ISIS
    BOOM time is almost here !!!! Infrastructure spending, School repaired, Council houses to be built and MONEY is CHEAP. Cheapest in 300 years.
    Money is only cheap because we've been reducing the deficit through austerity. For nations woth out of control deficits they aren't trying to control money is EXPENSIVE.
    Bugger all ! Money has been cheap since end of 2008 - all over the world ! The German and French yield curves are actually well below ours.

    Our current "cheap" money is relatively expensive. Labour's manifesto only has a small amount of extra borrowing. Most of the pledges are matched by taxation.

    Are the Tory pledges fully costed ? Let's start with the Social Care scheme............? You can't even tell the cost because the line has not been drawn yet.
    The IFS have been a lot more scathing on the tax increase and their proposed yields.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    We have to assume she wanted this to go viral...

    https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/868074244764299264

    Lucky there are no selfies of her with the current First Minister. Or the previous one.

    Oh...

    In her case fungal. A suitably hideous poster girl for the Nats.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    This is fun...

    Tories take Sheffield Hallam....

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/868072474449260545

    Clegg gets 18%, Lab 33% and Con double Clegg's vote at 36%
    Doesn't seem likely.
    The latest Labour leaflets in Hallam have the usual bar charts with an arrow pointing at the Conservatives saying Only Labour can beat the Lib Dems here !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    o/t hold the front page

    vincent janssen has scored for spurs - again,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    calum said:

    Ruth tying herself up in knots on immigration !

    https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/868045572334374912

    As the economy is shrinking under the SNP and taxes rising she said
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    Yesterday I thought this was a big mistake from Corbyn.
    Now I'm not so certain. Everything the Mail is saying they probably would have said anyway.
    At least he's got out in front of it and had a crack at getting a few soundbites in.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.

    How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?

    The social care U-turn has f*cked this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?

    What were they thinking?

    Mrs May has promised a Brexit that will improve the living standards of millions of ordinary Britons. She will be judged on her delivery of that.

    No she is delivering the Brexit most Leavers want ie which puts immigration and sovereignty first

    We'll see. Most Leavers are not all Leavers - and there were an awful lot of Remainers too. Most of them have accepted the result, but will not necessarily accept what it leads to.

    No the Leavers she has won over are all hard Brexiteers direct from UKIP

    Delivering the Leave they want will not necessarily play well with the vast majority of voters who are not former UKIP supporters. There is no doubt May will win and probably win very well. It's what happens after that which is interesting. Your view that voters will happily accept any Brexit outcome that reduces immigration is not one that I share. We shall see.

    I'm afraid you're right.
    That's why we need a safety valve in case Brexit goes disastrously wrong. One possibility would be Farron's referendum on the negotiated deal, but I suspect that there will be other methods if it becomes too unpopular, maybe a vote of no confidence would do it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    I do admire the Tories here who are calm and resolute under fire. I am wibbly wobbly all over the place because of the developing "situation".
    I am obviously not officer class.
    " Steady the Blues"

    I'm not particularly a Tory, but this election has gone from being boring and uninteresting to very exciting and LOLworthy.

    Before a week or so ago, it was just the case of whether this Labour bigwig or that Labour no-hoper would be losing their seats. Interesting from a betting point of view, but not enough to get me really going.

    Now we're looking at a situation where someone - or many people - are going to have eggs on their faces. Whether it's May for comprehensively losing a commanding leave, or Labour losing heavily after raising expectations, or the pollsters mucking up again, it's undoubtedly much more interesting.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    The far left should really be voting lib dem;

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/Presentations/Rob Joyce, 2017 General Election, manifesto analysis.pdf

    The chart on page 18!

    Neither the tories NOR labour are offering jam for the JAMS.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?

    They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
    So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
    There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
    What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.
    Yougov showed a small net gain from Labour by the Tories and from the Tories by the LDs and from the LDs by Labour and from UKIP by Labour. The biggest net gain remained from UKIP to Tory
    My point was that we are reaching the point where anti-Tory tactical voting could be key.

    There is no way from the national VI polls to tell ating the Tory
    We know that 400 seats voted Leave and in most of those the UKIP vote pular vote
    I think it is misleading to label a seat as "Leave" or "Remain" if the result was within say 10% of 50/50 which many were.

    There is a large anti-Tory centre-left group which is tactically voting and is not put off by the Corbyn factor. Some might even be beginning to admire him.

    There is also a sizable wealthy centre-right group that is very anti-Brexit.

    And now there is another group. Just About Managing in their 40s or 50s who are relying on eventually inheriting their parents' wealth who are saying WTF!!

    This is shaping up for the perfect storm for the Tories.

    Nevertheless I still expect them to get an overall majority. But it could be another Cameron style over confident misjudgment on Theresa's part.
    In most Labour Leave marginal seats the UKIP vote alone ould tip the balance to the Tories even if no movement at all from Labour to Tory and yougov shows the Tories still making a small net gain from Labour even if they are making a small net loss to the LDs. The LD vote in Labour Leave seats is too small for Labour to get much benefit from tactical voting. All those middle aged inheritance hopefuls got a big Tory inheritance tax cut last year which McDonnell would reverse and of course care costs will now be capped
    The North is back with Labour.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    Jason said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    Corbyn's approach to terrorism - 'a kind of elaborate hand wringing'. Said by a Guardian columnist.
    Corbyn in 1940.

    "Chaps, clearly the War against Nazism isn't working. We've had to evacuate Dunkirk, and France is on the verge of collapse. Let's have a nice chat over tea with Herr Hitler!"
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480

    dixiedean said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    The Mail and Sun will know they're facing a big test of their influence, now. Expect all the big guns to come out, as with the absolute blizzard of "IRA TRAITOR FAILS TO SING NATIONAL ANTHEM" propaganda pieces at exactly the moment Corbyn won the leadership, to set the tone on him early on.
    People have heard it for 2 years, though. There are diminishing marginal returns on this. How about some positive reasons to vote Conservative?
    Vote for misery, vote for May.

    Nothing positive to look forward under a May government. That is the flaw at the heart of her campaign.
    Yes, and I think it will result in a limited press-aided win. All the ramifications of that for Brexit, as only a few people have mentioned here so far, might actually be the most relevant - and also might be one unexamined dynamic for the collection of support around Corbyn.

    Small majority, dent to an overconfident tory campaign , and the more hubristic ultra-Brexiteer Tories, might be subtly linked to a softer, more manageable, less reckless Brexit, in quite a few voters' minds.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    dixiedean said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    The Mail and Sun will know they're facing a big test of their influence, now. Expect all the big guns to come out, as with the absolute blizzard of "IRA TRAITOR FAILS TO SING NATIONAL ANTHEM" propaganda pieces at exactly the moment Corbyn won the leadership, to set the tone on him early on.
    People have heard it for 2 years, though. There are diminishing marginal returns on this. How about some positive reasons to vote Conservative?
    Vote for misery, vote for May.

    Nothing positive to look forward under a May government. That is the flaw at the heart of her campaign.
    It will probably still work. However, she is pissing away political capital like a newly furloughed sailor in a Dockside bar/brothel/casino.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    rkrkrk said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    Yesterday I thought this was a big mistake from Corbyn.
    Now I'm not so certain. Everything the Mail is saying they probably would have said anyway.
    At least he's got out in front of it and had a crack at getting a few soundbites in.
    The Conservative spin operation is attacking Corbyn on what they wanted him to say rather than what he actually said. I have to admit Corbyn has surprised me. He has managed to sound reasonable in a security speech and at the same come across as sympathetic to the victims, supportive of those that try to keep us safe and determined to boost protection to the extent it can be.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TMA1 said:

    surbiton said:

    You mean the Fallon who went to Syria to congratulate Assad on winning his election with 99% of the votes. That Fallon ?
    He went as part of an all party delegation way back in 2007. They did not congratulate anybody on anything.

    And Corbyn visited Assad in 2009, a visit organised by an anti Israel group and led by that well known anti jew Baroness Tong. I do not know if Corbyn congratulated anybody but when he got back he chose to write, in the Morning Star of course, that the Balfour Declaration was 'infamous' and 'once again the Israeli tail wags the US dog'.

    Corbyn is a regular buyer/ reader of the Morning Star, not just Canary. He said that the Morning Star was ''the most precious and only voice we have in the daily media.''
    https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-751f-Your-support-is-what-makes-this-paper-so-different#.WSgcnGjyvIU
    ''I look forward to working with Ben in promoting socialism''
    https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-d46e-New-editor-hailed-by-leading-lefties#.WSgc0WjyvIU

    'Socialism' BTW is that mechanism whereby lefty governments take money off people who have it and give it away to anybody willing to piss it u the wall.
    Your writing ability is, at best, apologetic and, at worst, downright crass. Just say that he should not have gone there if you are so much against dictator/terrorists.

    As for Corbyn, everyone knows he is a friend of the "terrorists". People like Martin McGuinness, who had lunch with the Queen.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    Yesterday I thought this was a big mistake from Corbyn.
    Now I'm not so certain. Everything the Mail is saying they probably would have said anyway.
    At least he's got out in front of it and had a crack at getting a few soundbites in.
    The Conservative spin operation is attacking Corbyn on what they wanted him to say rather than what he actually said. I have to admit Corbyn has surprised me. He has managed to sound reasonable in a security speech and at the same come across as sympathetic to the victims, supportive of those that try to keep us safe and determined to boost protection to the extent it can be.
    Yep , it was a Strong and Stable performance from Corbyn .
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Jason said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    Corbyn's approach to terrorism - 'a kind of elaborate hand wringing'. Said by a Guardian columnist.
    Corbyn in 1940.

    "Chaps, clearly the War against Nazism isn't working. We've had to evacuate Dunkirk, and France is on the verge of collapse. Let's have a nice chat over tea with Herr Hitler!"
    That was a popular view, especially in the Conservative Party and even in the Cabinet.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited May 2017
    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    Yesterday I thought this was a big mistake from Corbyn.
    Now I'm not so certain. Everything the Mail is saying they probably would have said anyway.
    At least he's got out in front of it and had a crack at getting a few soundbites in.
    The Conservative spin operation is attacking Corbyn on what they wanted him to say rather than what he actually said. I have to admit Corbyn has surprised me. He has managed to sound reasonable in a security speech and at the same come across as sympathetic to the victims, supportive of those that try to keep us safe and determined to boost protection to the extent it can be.
    The whole Conservative campaign seems to have been predicated on what they assumed Corbyn would say.
    James Cleverly on 5 Live was hamstrung by an inability to string together a coherent sentence. However, he managed to say that the Head of MI5 was wrong about security, the Head of the police Federation was wrong about policing, and resorted to burbling about security comes from a strong economy.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited May 2017
    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    Yesterday I thought this was a big mistake from Corbyn.
    Now I'm not so certain. Everything the Mail is saying they probably would have said anyway.
    At least he's got out in front of it and had a crack at getting a few soundbites in.
    The Conservative spin operation is attacking Corbyn on what they wanted him to say rather than what he actually said. I have to admit Corbyn has surprised me. He has managed to sound reasonable in a security speech and at the same come across as sympathetic to the victims, supportive of those that try to keep us safe and determined to boost protection to the extent it can be.

    Corbyn just presented a prepared speech (written by someone cleverer than him) and will say anything if he thinks it will get his hands on the levers of power.

    His refusal to take questions shows how weak he really is on these issues.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Here's the guys that Jeremy wants to take for a quiet chat over tea and biscuits - but no tea and biscuits during the hours of daylight for the next 30 days, of course.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/islamic-state-calls-all-out-war-west-start-ramadan-manchester/

    “Muslim brothers in Europe who can’t reach the Islamic State lands, attack them in their homes, their markets, their roads and their forums,” the jihadist group said in a message entitled Where are the lions of war? and published on YouTube.

    Defending themselves after the suicide attack on Manchester Arena, which left 22 mostly children and teenagers dead, the group said: “Do not despise the work. Your targeting of the so-called innocents and civilians is beloved by us and the most effective, so go forth and may you get a great reward or martyrdom in Ramadan.”
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Jason said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    Corbyn's approach to terrorism - 'a kind of elaborate hand wringing'. Said by a Guardian columnist.
    Corbyn in 1940.

    "Chaps, clearly the War against Nazism isn't working. We've had to evacuate Dunkirk, and France is on the verge of collapse. Let's have a nice chat over tea with Herr Hitler!"
    That was a popular view, especially in the Conservative Party and even in the Cabinet.
    History shows however that we neither buckled, nor lost.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    Yesterday I thought this was a big mistake from Corbyn.
    Now I'm not so certain. Everything the Mail is saying they probably would have said anyway.
    At least he's got out in front of it and had a crack at getting a few soundbites in.
    The Conservative spin operation is attacking Corbyn on what they wanted him to say rather than what he actually said. I have to admit Corbyn has surprised me. He has managed to sound reasonable in a security speech and at the same come across as sympathetic to the victims, supportive of those that try to keep us safe and determined to boost protection to the extent it can be.
    Yep , it was a Strong and Stable performance from Corbyn .
    as a Corbynite you obviously disagree with the PLP then
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    kjohnw said:

    FF43 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Corbyn has gone down well with the Mail headline writers:

    "Making excuses for terrorism: Corbyn faces furious backlash over 'inappropriate and crass' bid to exploit Manchester bombing by blaming British Middle East military adventures"

    Yesterday I thought this was a big mistake from Corbyn.
    Now I'm not so certain. Everything the Mail is saying they probably would have said anyway.
    At least he's got out in front of it and had a crack at getting a few soundbites in.
    The Conservative spin operation is attacking Corbyn on what they wanted him to say rather than what he actually said. I have to admit Corbyn has surprised me. He has managed to sound reasonable in a security speech and at the same come across as sympathetic to the victims, supportive of those that try to keep us safe and determined to boost protection to the extent it can be.
    Yep , it was a Strong and Stable performance from Corbyn .
    as a Corbynite you obviously disagree with the PLP then
    Mark is a well known Liberal Democrat.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?

    They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
    So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
    There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
    What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.
    Yougov showed a small net gain from Labour by the Tories and from the Tories by the LDs and from the LDs by Labour and from UKIP by Labour. The biggest net gain remained from UKIP to Tory
    My point was that we are reaching the point where anti-Tory tactical voting could be key.

    There is no way from the national VI polls to tell ating the Tory
    We know that 400 seats voted Leave and in most of those the UKIP vote pular vote
    I think it is misleading to label a seat as "Leave" or "Remain" if the result was within say 10% of 50/50 which many were.
    In most Labour Leave marginal seats the UKIP vote alone ould tip the balance to the Tories even if no movement at all from Labour to Tory and yougov shows the Tories still making a small net gain from Labour even if they are making a small net loss to the LDs. The LD vote in Labour Leave seats is too small for Labour to get much benefit from tactical voting. All those middle aged inheritance hopefuls got a big Tory inheritance tax cut last year which McDonnell would reverse and of course care costs will now be capped
    But what if a fair bit of the kipper vote seeps back to where it came from?

    The isolationist, welfare state, anti liberal elite Britain of Jezza may well appeal to at least a proportion. After all Farage was very against our middle East interventions too. Not everyone wants a Singapore style Brexit.

    There are multiple incompatible Brexits conceivable:

    https://musealoudblog.wordpress.com/2016/07/29/answer-brexit-paradox-eu/

    importantly, Jezza is fighting on his own terrain. He is not so much anti or pro-Brexit as supremely unbothered by it as an issue. This is not the Brexit election May was looking for.
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