politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manif
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Labour would worsen the deficit and their higher taxes would slow growth and lead to a brain drain, Corbyn would weaken border controls and immigration policy and go soft on ISISbigjohnowls said:
You think the country will go bankrupt? The IFS think there is a £9bn black hole in Labs manifesto dont they, chicken feed.HYUFD said:
For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budgetbigjohnowls said:For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone with a house ...................
Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?0 -
If Corbyn got in the banks may well all eventually be in state handsCyan said:
Whereas Tory MPs? Oh wait, some of them have a private income or they use their time in Westminster to develop business contacts before moving on and up.Alice_Aforethought said:As Nick Palmer said downthread all Labour MPs care about is keeping their seats.
Ha! If it was clear that a Labour win would bankrupt the country, the banks would SUPPORT Labour. There are still some juicy assets here that creditors would love to seize. Some are even in state hands.HYUFD said:For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said.
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May's Tories? F... em, I hope they get their arses handed to them. I'll have my free puppy please, and my state leccy and my nationalised train network. I'll have all the freebies and someone else can pay later when I'm gone. The war on Corbyn isn't working, let's give up.0
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Very TrueIanB2 said:
What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.MarkSenior said:
Yesterday Yougov showed almost equal numbers moving from Con to Lab and vice versa and Lib Dem to Lab and vice versa . The only significant moves were UKIP to Con and a smaller Con to Lib Dem move all since 2015MarqueeMark said:
But are they? Isn't it more that Labour are hoovering up the LibDems and Greens and Commies and Don't Usually Vote, and the Tories are losing votes to Don't Knows?David_Evershed said:
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?YBarddCwsc said:
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.David_Evershed said:Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.0 -
Ben Wallace was attacking Corbyn this morningAlastairMeeks said:
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Where? BF have Labour majority at 30.SeanT said:Betting odds.
Labour are now 6/1 to WIN the election. What were they before? 12/1?
20/1?
A Hung Parliament is now just 13/20 -
Can you email her back and ask her what the fuck she thinks she's playing at then?TudorRose said:
She can't be that busy - she just sent me an email.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
On the whole I think that's a good thing. War is bad and there should always be a reluctance to go that route. Maybe more important, however, there are few if any circumstances where Corbyn would ever consider committing troops to war.GIN1138 said:
"Disengage" is one thing but there are absolutely no circumstances where he would ever commit troops to war...FF43 said:Actually that's a good speech by Jeremy Corbyn. A good take on supporting those that aim to keep us safe. I don't think I go along with his linkage between terrorism and our foreign policy, but he has a point that military operations have consequences, so you need to think carefully about them. Corbyn's instinct is to disengage, but the same instinct is driving Brexit. A lot of people go along with it.
Funnily enough, that I disagree with his argument that there is a strong linkage between our foreign attacks and terrorist activity on our soil, actually strengthens his main point that more military action abroad will not lead to a safer environment here.
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That's because Mummy will club them senseless if they cross her. She may later decide they were right all along, but they won't then be forgiven or reinstated.dyedwoolie said:
Yet they sit on their hands and wait for mummy.Pulpstar said:
Yes. Corbyn has brought this up.dyedwoolie said:Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror.
He is grotesque.
Fallon and co need to take the gloves off.
Frankly they deserve to lose this. We don't deserve Corbyn though.
I'm reminded of the comedian Dave Allen's experience of his first day at proper school aged five. He was met by a terrifying Mother Superior who bellowed at him "Now are you going to be a good little boy?" Over her shoulder on a wall he could see an effigy of a bloke nailed to two planks of wood and he thought "You're ****ing right I'm going to be a good little boy."
That's Mrs May's cabinet, that is.0 -
If you've read Dominic Cummings account of the campaign you will discover the exact opposite was true.IanB2 said:
And so it was. But it's the old one about not having to outrun the tiger.TGOHF said:
The "Leave" campaign was portrayed as "amateurish" and "non existent" by many sage experts on here right up until the exit poll.ThreeQuidder said:
The 2015 campaign was portrayed as a disaster at the time, too...GIN1138 said:Back in the 1987 general election campaign there were quite a few polls with the Con lead down to between 4-7%.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1983-1987
Kinnock was generally perceived to have had a good campaign and Thatcher a poor campaign.
We know what the result was in the end though...
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There's still 12/1 on Betfair for Lab most seats, and the hung parliament is 9/1.SeanT said:Betting odds.
Labour are now 6/1 to WIN the election. What were they before? 12/1?
20/1?
A Hung Parliament is now just 13/2
Sounds like bookies are reacting to weight of money from the Corbynistas, which means there's probably some value on the other side. Both the indicated bets are arb-able on the exchange.0 -
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/Presentations/Carl Emmerson, 2017 General Election, manifesto analysis.pdf
The international comparison charts on pages 6 & 10 are interesting.
Cornynite economics really isn't very radical at all.0 -
Maggie had her Norman and her Cecil and in her early days her Willie to field this shit - TM seems to lack a charismatic and articulate right hand man.Alice_Aforethought said:
At a guess: because May is a vacillating, indecisive, but ruthless control freak, nobody's allowed to say anything unless it's cleared with her first.dyedwoolie said:Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror.
He is grotesque.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.0 -
Tory majority of 30-40 seats, I should say, rather than gains, to clarify.WhisperingOracle said:
The last two weeks will see a lot of new dynamics - the snoozy "done deal " of an election with a comfortable majority, in a comfortably sunny, post-Brexit summer for Tory voters - suddenly reversed and made into an apparently more active struggle - plus the press exercising its familiar propagandising role, now made even easier in the wake of a national tragedy.Pulpstar said:My office v worried about Corbyn winning, my colleague's husband will cry if he does !
Result - Tory win of 30-40 seats ( at an average guess ) .0 -
And I'm copyrighting the war on Corbyn isn't working.
I'll be rich0 -
Yougov showed a small net gain from Labour by the Tories and from the Tories by the LDs and from the LDs by Labour and from UKIP by Labour. The biggest net gain remained from UKIP to ToryIanB2 said:
What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.MarkSenior said:
Yesterday Yougov showed almost equal numbers moving from Con to Lab and vice versa and Lib Dem to Lab and vice versa . The only significant moves were UKIP to Con and a smaller Con to Lib Dem move all since 2015MarqueeMark said:
But are they? Isn't it more that Labour are hoovering up the LibDems and Greens and Commies and Don't Usually Vote, and the Tories are losing votes to Don't Knows?David_Evershed said:
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?YBarddCwsc said:
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.David_Evershed said:Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.0 -
Agree, although you put it better. Until May tells everyone exactly what to say, nobody says anything at all.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.0
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Labour seems to want to be in the single market to the extent that it is possible. In effect, that would probably mean shadowing it, rather than being a part of it. One of the reasons the left has always wanted out of it in the past is precisely because it makes state ownership much harder.SeanT said:
Yeah, whatever, yawn, it would be nice if someone answered the question. It seems quite important to me.SouthamObserver said:
Isn't one of the rules of Brexit that the UK gets to do whatever it likes?SeanT said:Has anyone worked out whether Labour's apparent desire to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union (their wording is slightly vague) is compatible with their desire to nationalise everything?
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For months we have pontificated on PB about whether Corbyn was a secret agent plant by the Tories who has been a sleeper for 30 years.Carolus_Rex said:
Can you email her back and ask her what the fuck she thinks she's playing at then?TudorRose said:
She can't be that busy - she just sent me an email.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.TheScreamingEagles said:
But no, it appears May is a hard left Labour plant who has been a sleeper for 30 years.0 -
I don't exclude them; I made the point only because a Labour MP opined that Labour MPs care only about remaining MPs.Cyan said:
Whereas Tory MPs?Alice_Aforethought said:As Nick Palmer said downthread all Labour MPs care about is keeping their seats.
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We'll probably still end up with something that's branded as Brexit although fuck knows what it will actually be.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
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Not sure I've seen any leavers think there is any danger of Labour winning - seems to be a few wets.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
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Net migration from the EU, especially Eastern Europe fell and net migration overall fell. Outside the EU May could start with a travel and immigration ban from Libya and SyriaSouthamObserver said:
Net migration fell; immigration didn't. From outside the EU - the bit we control - it went up.HYUFD said:
Immigration fell in figures yesterday, Corbyn will stop bombing ISIS and open the floodgatesbigjohnowls said:
In what way are you safer?kjohnw said:
yesbigjohnowls said:
Shall I put you down as a maybe!!kjohnw said:
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour winbigjohnowls said:An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Do you feel safer now than in 2010?
Fewer police. army,navy RAF all cut
Higher immigration NHS less able to respond emergency services cut
Libya war made it a terrorist haven.
I do not understand why you feel safer seems completely irrational to me
Can you explain?0 -
One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.0 -
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I voted Remain but Labour's policy on Europe hardly seems appealing.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
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That would be enough for her to be able to see of the hard line Brexiteers - if she wants to.WhisperingOracle said:
Tory majority of 30-40 seats, I should say, rather than gains, to clarify.WhisperingOracle said:
The last two weeks will see a lot of new dynamics - the snoozy "done deal " of an election with a comfortable majority, in a comfortably sunny, post-Brexit summer for Tory voters - suddenly reversed and made into an apparently more active struggle - plus the press exercising its familiar propagandising role, now made even easier in the wake of a national tragedy.Pulpstar said:My office v worried about Corbyn winning, my colleague's husband will cry if he does !
Result - Tory win of 30-40 seats ( at an average guess ) .0 -
The Tories would win 10 SNP Scottish seats with yougov too which would increase their majority by 20 overallWhisperingOracle said:
The last two weeks will see a lot of new dynamics - the snoozy "done deal " of an election with a comfortable majority, in a comfortably sunny, post-Brexit summer for Tory voters - suddenly reversed and made into an apparently more active struggle - plus the press exercising its familiar propagandising role, now made even easier in the wake of a national tragedy.Pulpstar said:My office v worried about Corbyn winning, my colleague's husband will cry if he does !
Result - Tory win of 30-40 seats ( at an average guess ) .0 -
Also until her last years in power Maggie would at least listen to criticism and get advice from people outside her inner circle, even if she didn't always follow it. There is no sign of Mrs May doing that, and the people in her inner circle aren't nearly as good.Norm said:
Maggie had her Norman and her Cecil and in her early days her Willie to field this shit - TM seems to lack a charismatic and articulate right hand man.Alice_Aforethought said:
At a guess: because May is a vacillating, indecisive, but ruthless control freak, nobody's allowed to say anything unless it's cleared with her first.dyedwoolie said:Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror.
He is grotesque.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.0 -
and tuition fees. That will definitely have cut through with young people. They will probably vote on that alone.bobajobPB said:One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.0 -
I don't seriously entertain the prospect of Labour winning. The Conservatives winning by less than they ought, making way for Gove to be PM in the future is a tantalising prospect though.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
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It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
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Why?Dura_Ace said:We'll probably still end up with something that's branded as Brexit although fuck knows what it will actually be.
If the British public reject the "Brexit means Brexit" candidate at the ballot box, using Brexiteer logic "the will of the people" is obviously that we should not Brexit...
ROFLtime0 -
Brexit and immigration cut they know that and what they want are tougher border controlsbobajobPB said:One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.0 -
Fair point, yes that is well known among younger groups I guess (and parents of young people).rottenborough said:
and tuition fees. That will definitely have cut through with young people. They will probably vote on that alone.bobajobPB said:One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.0 -
I didn't vote at all in the EU referendum. I was wholly unimpressed by both campaigns and thought both their positions equally unworthy of support.0
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Clinton vs Trump; Remain vs Leave; Better Together vs the SNP. Corbyn has learned that relentless attacks on the other side don't always work; you need a positive message instead, or at least as well.
The pb Tories calling for one more round of Corbyn-bashing haven't.0 -
The Tories are still 95% on course for a majority, but the chances of a landslide have receded somewhat (I'm not counting anything out in today's surreal political landscape).
As a very critical supporter of Corbyn less because of the man himself (though I think he is having a decent campaign) but because I want the electorate to have a genuine choice of a decent centre-left party that has rediscovered its soul, I'll be very happy if May basically stands still though.
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Yes it has, and without any help at all from Labour. They did it to themselves.SouthamObserver said:
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
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BorisNorm said:
Maggie had her Norman and her Cecil and in her early days her Willie to field this shit - TM seems to lack a charismatic and articulate right hand man.Alice_Aforethought said:
At a guess: because May is a vacillating, indecisive, but ruthless control freak, nobody's allowed to say anything unless it's cleared with her first.dyedwoolie said:Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror.
He is grotesque.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.0 -
Ah "wets". Can the Tory campaign use that boarding-school, Flashman, don't-have-feelings word more, please?TGOHF said:
Not sure I've seen any leavers think there is any danger of Labour winning - seems to be a few wets.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
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Does anyone else find Barry Gardiner an oily toad?0
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Well, she did want Dementia Tax placed centre stage in her manifesto. And she has got what she wanted.bobajobPB said:One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
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Sorry don't buy that. The smartest thing Corbyn did was to rule out a second referendum thereby helping to negate the EU as an election issue. OK Lab Brexit would be softish but there we go - plenty of Tories such as myself can live with that. The pro EU Lib Dems are stuffed and will be lucky to hang on to five seats.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
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I agree that is their thinking, but given that energy and rail (for example) are nationalised widely in other wealthy European nations, it can't presumably be that much of a barrier?SouthamObserver said:
Labour seems to want to be in the single market to the extent that it is possible. In effect, that would probably mean shadowing it, rather than being a part of it. One of the reasons the left has always wanted out of it in the past is precisely because it makes state ownership much harder.SeanT said:
Yeah, whatever, yawn, it would be nice if someone answered the question. It seems quite important to me.SouthamObserver said:
Isn't one of the rules of Brexit that the UK gets to do whatever it likes?SeanT said:Has anyone worked out whether Labour's apparent desire to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union (their wording is slightly vague) is compatible with their desire to nationalise everything?
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Positive message? All Corbyn has done over the last week is slam Tory social care and police and foreign policiesDecrepitJohnL said:Clinton vs Trump; Remain vs Leave; Better Together vs the SNP. Corbyn has learned that relentless attacks on the other side don't always work; you need a positive message instead, or at least as well.
The pb Tories calling for one more round of Corbyn-bashing haven't.0 -
Yup, every time May says "I am going to get a good deal" there will be an audible chorus of "Dementia Tax".SouthamObserver said:It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.
Even if she gets a 50 odd majority, the headbangers will be restless0 -
Corbyn has been very visible and the policies have had tremendous cut-through.bobajobPB said:One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
May has been invisible (campaign-wise) and the policies have had zero cut-througj other than the "Dementia Tax".
The Tory campaign has been terrible and I bet they now wish they'd never called the election.0 -
Lynton Crosby still the infallible oracle that some on here portray him as?
Tories will still win comfortably BTW0 -
Nevertheless SO's facts are right also.HYUFD said:
Net migration from the EU, especially Eastern Europe fell and net migration overall fell. Outside the EU May could start with a travel and immigration ban from Libya and SyriaSouthamObserver said:
Net migration fell; immigration didn't. From outside the EU - the bit we control - it went up.HYUFD said:
Immigration fell in figures yesterday, Corbyn will stop bombing ISIS and open the floodgatesbigjohnowls said:
In what way are you safer?kjohnw said:
yesbigjohnowls said:
Shall I put you down as a maybe!!kjohnw said:
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour winbigjohnowls said:An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Do you feel safer now than in 2010?
Fewer police. army,navy RAF all cut
Higher immigration NHS less able to respond emergency services cut
Libya war made it a terrorist haven.
I do not understand why you feel safer seems completely irrational to me
Can you explain?0 -
Indeed perhaps he's keeping his powder dry until next week.HYUFD said:
BorisNorm said:
Maggie had her Norman and her Cecil and in her early days her Willie to field this shit - TM seems to lack a charismatic and articulate right hand man.Alice_Aforethought said:
At a guess: because May is a vacillating, indecisive, but ruthless control freak, nobody's allowed to say anything unless it's cleared with her first.dyedwoolie said:Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror.
He is grotesque.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.0 -
All my three are firm Corbynites, much to my distress. But they feel - probably quite justifiably - that they have no real stake in society as it currently works. Corbyn is a genuine anti-establishment figure, with a genuine anti-establishment message. We live in anti-establishment times.rottenborough said:
and tuition fees. That will definitely have cut through with young people. They will probably vote on that alone.bobajobPB said:One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
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Amber Rudd smacking Jezza down on Sky0
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Corbyn's 'smarter way' in dealing with terrorists = APPEASEMENT0
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of course they will - still these polls have given those that will lose in the election a weekend of comfort blankets - let them enjoy it.PeterMannion said:Lynton Crosby still the infallible oracle that some on here portray him as?
Tories will still win comfortably BTW0 -
@PennyMordaunt: Corbyn's comments todays fail the judgement test on every front: ignorant, wrong, hypocritical and tasteless. Really sad for HM opposition.0
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You mean the Fallon who went to Syria to congratulate Assad on winning his election with 99% of the votes. That Fallon ?rottenborough said:0 -
If May wins she has a mandate to take the UK out of the single market and end free movement and reduce payments to the EU, what the EU thinks is irrelevant, the British people will have rejected soft Brexit and some form of WTO terms are inevitableSouthamObserver said:
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
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relax the sun is shining it's a bank holiday weekend . all the tories are off on their hols . this week has been gcse week for most families . politics is a distant thought barring the sad events in manchester. we panicked in 2015 with EdM on the scene . Corbyn makes him look like a tory. No when June the 8th arrives the country will make it clear they do not want a socialist experiment in the 21st century UK . we need to give more attention to the leadership and best PM ratings they give a more accurate prediction of election outcome than the polls especially You Gov labour infiltrated panelsSeanT said:
If Brexit leads to a Labour majority government, led by Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell, I will officially regret my LEAVE vote. But not unless and until.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
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My point was that we are reaching the point where anti-Tory tactical voting could be key.HYUFD said:
Yougov showed a small net gain from Labour by the Tories and from the Tories by the LDs and from the LDs by Labour and from UKIP by Labour. The biggest net gain remained from UKIP to ToryIanB2 said:
What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.MarkSenior said:
Yesterday Yougov showed almost equal numbers moving from Con to Lab and vice versa and Lib Dem to Lab and vice versa . The only significant moves were UKIP to Con and a smaller Con to Lib Dem move all since 2015MarqueeMark said:
But are they? Isn't it more that Labour are hoovering up the LibDems and Greens and Commies and Don't Usually Vote, and the Tories are losing votes to Don't Knows?David_Evershed said:
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?YBarddCwsc said:
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.David_Evershed said:Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
There is no way from the national VI polls to tell the difference between a) a UNS towards Labour away from the LibDems, UKIP and Greens and b) a swing towards whichever candidate in each seat stands the best chance of beating the Tory0 -
Indeed - which shows how weak and unstable they actually are. They'll still get past Jezza, but God help us all after that.Alice_Aforethought said:
Yes it has, and without any help at all from Labour. They did it to themselves.SouthamObserver said:
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
0 -
These polls have also given them a lifetime of 'we were closing the gap but Manchester/Andrew Neil/MSM/Zionists/whatever'.TGOHF said:
of course they will - still these polls have given those that will lose in the election a weekend of comfort blankets - let them enjoy it.PeterMannion said:Lynton Crosby still the infallible oracle that some on here portray him as?
Tories will still win comfortably BTW0 -
He may see this as a chance to wield the dagger again, if she wins by only 25...Norm said:
Indeed perhaps he's keeping his powder dry until next week.HYUFD said:
BorisNorm said:
Maggie had her Norman and her Cecil and in her early days her Willie to field this shit - TM seems to lack a charismatic and articulate right hand man.Alice_Aforethought said:
At a guess: because May is a vacillating, indecisive, but ruthless control freak, nobody's allowed to say anything unless it's cleared with her first.dyedwoolie said:Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror.
He is grotesque.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.
She may not have (m?)any friends, if she's a cold control freak.0 -
Not that I'm a Corbyn supporter, but I'd presume that the Jihadis view themselves as fighters against repression by Christians as a whole rather than by individual nations, in much the same way as we frequently lump Muslims together as a single entity.dyingswan said:If , as Corbyn argues there is a direct correlation between involvement in foreign wars and jihadi terrorism can he or one of his supporters on here please remind us of the part played by Belgium and Sweden in war.
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May is on 42% precisely because of immigration, if she agreed to soft Brexit now all those extra voters would return to UKIP and Corbyn may well get a hung parliament and a coalition of chaosSeanT said:
I am forced to agree. TMay is appalling. All this Ed Miliband energy cap shit, I hate it. AND it hasn't even worked, politically, that's the incredible thing. She thought she could park her tanks on the lefty lawn, but everyone in Labour just moved even further left, taking millions of voters with them.SouthamObserver said:
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
So she has single-handedly ratcheted our politics wildly to the left. You should be happy.
Meanwhile she has proved inept at low politicking, and bad at strategy, and stupid at stuff like students and the Single Market. Her big thing was lowering immigration, yet it can't be that important to voters as 38% of them are happy with maximum immigration under Corbs.
She and her team have misread this in every which way. Even if she wins it will go down as the worst campaign ever, and the auguries for Brexit are BAD.
Nul points, Ms May. And she walks in a stupid way and does weird grimaces which make me wince. And she wears big flappy tartan trousers like a fucking 6 foot clown crossed with a castrated heron.
Oh God we're all doomed. DOOMED.
If I wasn't in love with a very beautiful 21 year old, I might be quite depressed.
I'm going out now.0 -
I wonder how much influence he actually has on this campaign though. I don't get the impression that May will listen to him as readily as Cameron did, and he was drafted in quite late. As he puts it himself, you can't fatten a pig on market day.PeterMannion said:Lynton Crosby still the infallible oracle that some on here portray him as?
Tories will still win comfortably BTW
Anyway he's not infallible. Goldsmith still lost despite having Crosby on board.0 -
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The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.
How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?
The social care U-turn has screwed this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?
What were they thinking?0 -
Yep - and the British people will just shrug their shoulders and say, "yep, that's what we voted for, it's all our fault, we deserve all the economic and financial pain that has ensued". Of course they will :-DHYUFD said:
If May wins she has a mandate to take the UK out of the single market and end free movement and reduce payments to the EU, what the EU thinks is irrelevant, the British people will have rejected soft Brexit and some form of WTO terms are inevitableSouthamObserver said:
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.AlastairMeeks said:Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
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Labour have always had a positive message. All the Tories have got is "Corbyn eats babies".DecrepitJohnL said:Clinton vs Trump; Remain vs Leave; Better Together vs the SNP. Corbyn has learned that relentless attacks on the other side don't always work; you need a positive message instead, or at least as well.
The pb Tories calling for one more round of Corbyn-bashing haven't.
The Tories don't even have a positive message on how to deal with terrorism. As for Brexit, it was a long-term split in the right, including in the Tory party, that caused Brexit, and the main right-wing party hasn't got a clue what to do next. "Red White and Blue Brexit" is about as contentful as "Up Yer Arse Brexit", and about as contemptuous towards the population.
Labour's positive message is there. But they also need to use the weapon of negativity more. Let's hope they can do it in an effective way.0 -
More Labour candidates less than happy with Corbyn's speech:
https://twitter.com/MikeGapes/status/8680197994603806720 -
Well, looking at the YouGov internals, I've done the following exercise:
- Looked at the expected turnout - they have over 75% (!)
- Gone through the raw churn (including those to D/K, WNV); those who voted last time should overwhelmingly dominate the actual turnout on June 8th.
- Followed the old ICM process of returning 50% of D/K to whoever they voted for in 2015.
- Added in the 18-19 year-olds as 2/7ths of the 18-24 bracket as genuine voters who won't have voted last time.
This produces (from exactly the same respondents):
Con 45%
Lab 35%
LD 10%
UKIP 4%
Turnout 66.4%
This is not to say "these are the 'real' figures"; it just underlines how much the assumptions and turnout adjustments can affect the numbers.
(I still have very real discomfort with the sampling response levels and the difficulty that all pollsters keep having at getting a decent mixed sample without having to resort to constant weighting up or down of the same brackets every time)
It implies that about 6% of Conservative respondents, 20% of Labour respondents, and 10% of Lib Dem respondents are from the "Did Not Vote Last Time" brigade. Which is one that almost always lives up to the name (last June was the only time I can think of in my lifetime that they didn't live up to the name).
They may turn out after all in a fortnight, but I don't rate that as a high probability.0 -
No, she didn't.rottenborough said:
Well, she did want Dementia Tax placed centre stage in her manifesto. And she has got what she wanted.bobajobPB said:One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.0 -
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We know that 400 seats voted Leave and in most of those the UKIP vote is going Tory, we know 200 seats voted Remain and in most of those the LD vote is going Labour with some Labour votes going LD in LD target seats. I therefore expect the Tories to have a better performance in terms of Labour seat gains than their lead in the national popular voteIanB2 said:
My point was that we are reaching the point where anti-Tory tactical voting could be key.HYUFD said:
Yougov showed a small net gain from Labour by the Tories and from the Tories by the LDs and from the LDs by Labour and from UKIP by Labour. The biggest net gain remained from UKIP to ToryIanB2 said:
What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.MarkSenior said:
Yesterday Yougov showed almost equal numbers moving from Con to Lab and vice versa and Lib Dem to Lab and vice versa . The only significant moves were UKIP to Con and a smaller Con to Lib Dem move all since 2015MarqueeMark said:
But are they? Isn't it more that Labour are hoovering up the LibDems and Greens and Commies and Don't Usually Vote, and the Tories are losing votes to Don't Knows?David_Evershed said:
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?YBarddCwsc said:
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.David_Evershed said:Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
There is no way from the national VI polls to tell the difference between a) a UNS towards Labour away from the LibDems, UKIP and Greens and b) a swing towards whichever candidate in each seat stands the best chance of beating the Tory0 -
Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.0
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Dear Mr or Ms Rose,Carolus_Rex said:
Can you email her back and ask her what the fuck she thinks she's playing at then?TudorRose said:
She can't be that busy - she just sent me an email.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.TheScreamingEagles said:
I will be out of the office in Sicily starting today returning next week. During this time I will have no access to emails as MI6 confiscate my phone so that I can ignore SMS messages from Donald. If you need immediate assistance during my absence, please contact Mr N. Timothy on Monday, at bignick@no10.gov.uk.
Otherwise I will respond to your emails as soon as possible upon my return.
Warm Regards,
Theresa
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Mrs May has promised a Brexit that will improve the living standards of millions of ordinary Britons. She will be judged on her delivery of that.Pong said:The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.
How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?
The social care U-turn has f*cked this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?
What were they thinking?
0 -
Brexit means brexit? It's a trite, inane phrase. It's not a policy.HYUFD said:
Brexit and immigration cut they know that and what they want are tougher border controlsbobajobPB said:One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.0 -
I've just been VI'd by YouGov.
Also included a 'How will you vote in Hertsmere?' question.
0 -
It is noticeable that the Tories have found out that "strong and stable" rhymes perfectly with "Not very able"0
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She's at the G7.old_labour said:Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.
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Shes chairing the G7 in sicily. Might look a bit odd to pop out and electioneer.old_labour said:Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.
0 -
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BOOM time is almost here !!!! Infrastructure spending, School repaired, Council houses to be built and MONEY is CHEAP. Cheapest in 300 years.HYUFD said:
Labour would worsen the deficit and their higher taxes would slow growth and lead to a brain drain, Corbyn would weaken border controls and immigration policy and go soft on ISISbigjohnowls said:
You think the country will go bankrupt? The IFS think there is a £9bn black hole in Labs manifesto dont they, chicken feed.HYUFD said:
For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budgetbigjohnowls said:For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone with a house ...................
Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?0 -
"We fight on. We fight to win."ThreeQuidder said:
She's at the G7.old_labour said:Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.
0 -
We are finding out during this election campaign that while Brexit means Brexit, Brexit also means Brexit, which seems to have come as a surprise to some.bobajobPB said:
Brexit means brexit? It's a trite, inane phrase. It's not a policy.HYUFD said:
Brexit and immigration cut they know that and what they want are tougher border controlsbobajobPB said:One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
I can't understand why.0 -
The time is now for May. In 2015, Cameron got a right kick up the arse for a lack lustre 2 weeks (much shorter campaign) and fired up the activists. May has done virtually nothing - when back from the G7 she needs to seize back the headlines with rallies - if she has it in her....0
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I wish there was more exposure of the different flavours of the Muslim faith and how much they all violently hate each other. It may start to feed the narrative about 'don't touch them with a barge pole'. In addition, looking at non EU immigration, I've never understood how family members have a right to come here. Why should Auntie Doris be allowed to come here and then get her cousin Edgar to come as well.0
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Union flag in the background as if that's a bad thing ...Scott_P said:0 -
And Corbyn's policy of appeasement is a kick in the teeth for all the muslims who are not nutjobs and who have not been radicalised.Sandpit said:More Labour candidates less than happy with Corbyn's speech:
https://twitter.com/MikeGapes/status/8680197994603806720 -
Ditto here. With the names of the four candidates standing in Richmond Park.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:I've just been VI'd by YouGov.
Also included a 'How will you vote in Hertsmere?' question.
I think it is forcing out the tactical voting answers which increases Labour share and decreases LibDem share but increases the chances of more Labour AND LibDem seats.0 -
She can't take time out 5 or 10 minutes to make a statement? I have little confidence in her if she cannot deal with one issue leave alone 27 other countries and various sub national parliaments when negotiating Brexit.ThreeQuidder said:
She's at the G7.old_labour said:Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.
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Money is only cheap because we've been reducing the deficit through austerity. For nations woth out of control deficits they aren't trying to control money is EXPENSIVE.surbiton said:
BOOM time is almost here !!!! Infrastructure spending, School repaired, Council houses to be built and MONEY is CHEAP. Cheapest in 300 years.HYUFD said:
Labour would worsen the deficit and their higher taxes would slow growth and lead to a brain drain, Corbyn would weaken border controls and immigration policy and go soft on ISISbigjohnowls said:
You think the country will go bankrupt? The IFS think there is a £9bn black hole in Labs manifesto dont they, chicken feed.HYUFD said:
For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budgetbigjohnowls said:For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone with a house ...................
Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?0 -
No she is delivering the Brexit most Leavers want ie which puts immigration and sovereignty firstSouthamObserver said:
Mrs May has promised a Brexit that will improve the living standards of millions of ordinary Britons. She will be judged on her delivery of that.Pong said:The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.
How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?
The social care U-turn has f*cked this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?
What were they thinking?0 -
She might of course wait until later today so its fresh for the Andrew Neil interview/10 o' clock news. I'm pretty sure she's contactable and up to speed.old_labour said:
She can't take time out 5 or 10 minutes to make a statement? I have little confidence in her if she cannot deal with one issue leave alone 27 other countries and various sub national parliaments when negotiating Brexit.ThreeQuidder said:
She's at the G7.old_labour said:Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.
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They voted for Brexit, not Brexit...AlastairMeeks said:We are finding out during this election campaign that while Brexit means Brexit, Brexit also means Brexit, which seems to have come as a surprise to some.
I can't understand why.0
