politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manif
Comments
-
IFS on Labour's tuition fees plan. They say universities will have 30% less funding per year per student by 2021-22.0
-
Two words (and there are others...): Stroll, Palmer.Sandpit said:
No SC is a great bet, was a good value loser last year in the rain and the forecast is for the sun to shine on Sunday.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, I believe you saw (and derided
) my 6.5 No Safety Car bet.
I think it's astonishing that Vettel is 1.9 to win and Raikkonen 19 (down to 19.5 on Betfair, I put a little on him at 27).
If the Ferrari *is* the fastest car, then 19 for Raikkonen to win each way is worth consideration.
0 -
They say momentum is everything in politics. This chart doesn't look good for May.Sunil_Prasannan said:Whistling innocently
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/8680234902339993610 -
That was fox hunting.ThreeQuidder said:
It wasn't the centrepiece of the manifesto. Not even close.rottenborough said:
The doorstep feedback last weekend, and any internal polling, must have been astonishingly bad for May to u-turn on the centrepiece of her manifesto.RobD said:
Ok, and I think both BJO and Danny reported a very negative response on the issue.Pulpstar said:
Marquee Mark very positive for Kevin Foster in the bay, David Herdson generally positive in Wakefield - but dementia tax had been raised.RobD said:
Do you recall what David Henderson and Marquee Mark reported?Pulpstar said:
@Danny565 did last night. But no idea where.isam said:
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?RobD said:
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info.Mortimer said:
SOme of us are unworried - Tory maj c.100.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
David Herdson is West Yokshire, and Marquee Mark Torbay.0 -
The Tories need a good strategy to highlight Corbyn's terrorist links. They need to gang republicanism on him, as the stuff I am seeing on Facebook has him as the architect of peace in Northern Ireland. He is also believes you can negotiate with islamists which is clearly nonsense. They need clear messaging on this and they need to probably go a bit over the top so that labour squeal and draw attention to it. I would suggest they need a dossier of security risks by Corbyn / McDonnell / Abbott, so that they can get them to rebut what is not true.
Secondly and it might be too late due to postal voting but they need to stress that he is only opposed to social care proposals as he wants to apply wealth taxes against property values and you can't do both.0 -
Tuition fees always were a disaster, a massive act of intergenerational theft. And now they've got us on the verge of Jeremy Fing Corbyn.0
-
Martin Boon reporting on a Twitter that this weekends polls will be interesting. Make of that what you will0
-
At the moment, even with the latest polls, Theresa May will still be Prime Minister a fortnight from now.Brom said:After hanging my hat on the good polls in recent weeks it would be somewhat myopic of me to ignore this 5 pointer, and indeed I expect closer polls to come. However as someone who will vote neither Corbyn or May (but with a preference for the latter), here are 10 reasons as to why the PB Tories should not be ‘weak and wobbly’ this weekend. *Long Post Klaxon*
1. The biggest fundamental is the ‘leadership question’. Despite Corbyn making some progress and May drifting towards neutral level, the gap remains sizeable. Ultimately in 2015 the Presidential style question in polling was a greater pointer to the result than party numbers.
2. Corbyn is toxic. All polling suggests this, and it is backed up on the doorstep. Large sections of the population – the rich, the elderly, the armed forces and business owners will by and large not touch him. He is probably fishing in a pool that 40% of the voters inhabit, and though doing well he surely cannot breach this barrier.
3. Lynton Crosby. The man is a winner and knows exactly what makes voters tick, he knows how to squeeze out the vote and when to attack. He will have a firm hold over the campaign and will not let Nick Timothy or anyone else make any sizeable mistakes. Does anyone else really think he could be outwitted by Seamus Milne and co?
4. Shy Tories. We know the polls usually underweight the Tories at the expense of Labour (exception 1983). I’ve noticed a number of prominent people who have been critical of Corbyn in the past move on to battering Trump instead. I think the reason for this is simply because the Momentum army is attacking anyone on facebook/twitter who dare criticize Dear Leader. This is leading to a lot of voters keeping their heads down until polling day.
5. The marginals. We know the Tories have been working hard in swing seats (anywhere with Labour 8k majority or next). They have the information to target the exact voters they need. Their voter efficiency will be considerably better than Labour, who we expect to build up huge leads in urban areas. There is nothing to suggest the Labour campaign in Coventry, Fleetwood or Chester has anywhere near the same level or organisation to it. The squeezing of the minor parties will benefit the Tories here, and even a slightly small lead than the 7 points in 2015 should lead to more seats with the higher vote share.
But point 3 is questionable. Lynton Crosby does not walk on water, and lost the London Mayoralty with Zac and GE 2005 for Howard (and possibly 2010 as well). 2015 imo owed more to Messina than Crosby (and perhaps a robust interpretation of electoral law) but even the most generous interpretation must be that Crosby's record is at best mixed.0 -
Actually it was speculation that they will be interesting, but just posted this "I told you so; it's just that the weekend came early!". Ummm0
-
Deleted.-1
-
Fucking hell, Farron really is a pathetic little weasel of a loser. Any non-idiotic Lib Dem leader of the last twenty years would have agreed with Corbyn's very reasonable points that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that aiding and abetting jihadis in Syria and Libya might not be a recipe for making us safer at home.
I love the panicking hard right media like Tim Shipman desperately trying to equate the Tories with Britain. Newsflash - a lot of people think the Tories are destroying everything they love about this country, and that the patriotic answer is to try and get them the hell out of government.
Weak and Wobbly May's Conservatives - best friend of sunni jihadis everywhere.0 -
-
Certainly brings out the bed wetters.isam said:Why do people take the opinion polls so seriously? Every time one shows anything, they analyse exactly what would happen if the poll was accurate, despite knowing that it probably isn't. Seems like just something to do
We could save time waiting by just not having polls but instead running a program that randomly picks numbers and gives them to parties, then discuss what would happen if it were the result
But its good for betting.
0 -
-
So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.0 -
The HE sector is already making quite big cuts to staff (170 announced by Manchester recently) and 30% less funding can only really be saved through further job losses. For me the issue with tuition fees relates to the use of public funding for private gains; surely Corbyn is opposed to that?RobD said:IFS on Labour's tuition fees plan. They say universities will have 30% less funding per year per student by 2021-22.
0 -
Crosby lost Canada too. The guy is overrated.0
-
It's just a huge middle-class bung. They are the ones that would have previously repaid their loan, but are now going to be given a grant instead.TudorRose said:
The HE sector is already making quite big cuts to staff (170 announced by Manchester recently) and 30% less funding can only really be saved through further job losses. For me the issue with tuition fees relates to the use of public funding for private gains; surely Corbyn is opposed to that?RobD said:IFS on Labour's tuition fees plan. They say universities will have 30% less funding per year per student by 2021-22.
0 -
I agree - essentially, May appeared without trace.DecrepitJohnL said:But when you write TMay not living up to expectations one has to ask what was it in May's at best unremarkable stint at the Home Office, where she cut police numbers but not immigration (or even non-EU immigration) that led to raised expectations?
Did you not see the warning signs in the leadership election where May evinced no great vision but was last minister standing after Gove blew up both Boris's and his own campaigns -- and even then she had to be saved by a backroom stitch-up from an election against Andrea (who?) Leadsom.
She is ruthless, but essentially unprincipled. I don't mean that as a euphemism for "horrible", but in the literal sense that she holds no principles or views especially dear, and hence will assume or abandon any policy position, as seems convenient. There is no sense at all that she sought power to do or accomplish anything in particular, so now she has it she just aims to look a bit different to her predecessors within a right-of-centreish wrapper.
So we have seen from her:
- that Leave would be a disaster (2016) followed by vote for me if you want to Leave properly; - a manifesto commitment on self-employed NI in 2015, followed by its abandonment in 2017, followed by its instant reversal;
- monstering of Ed Miliband's 2015 energy price cap policy followed by adoption of it in 2017; and most recently,
- same-day capitulation on social care.
The absence of principle ends up looking like vacillating indecision. She is not really PM material at all, IMHO. She is a sort of a vicious jelly.0 -
If that happens my wife is out of a job, and her career is over in private schools. Great.Bob__Sykes said:So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.0 -
surbiton said:
Dan Hodges, you are voting Tory. Now fuck off !Scrapheap_as_was said:It's like neither party wants to win the election / have the Brexit 'bag'
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/868009169571516416
0 -
-
Corbo's unwavering support for Adams and the IRA certainly delayed the IRA's surrender.JWisemann said:Fucking hell, Farron really is a pathetic little weasel of a loser. Any non-idiotic Lib Dem leader of the last twenty years would have agreed with Corbyn's very reasonable points that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that aiding and abetting jihadis in Syria and Libya might not be a recipe for making us safer at home.
0 -
Are you in Cambridge again this time ?TGOHF said:
Corbo's unwavering support for Adams and the IRA certainly delayed the IRA's surrender.JWisemann said:Fucking hell, Farron really is a pathetic little weasel of a loser. Any non-idiotic Lib Dem leader of the last twenty years would have agreed with Corbyn's very reasonable points that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that aiding and abetting jihadis in Syria and Libya might not be a recipe for making us safer at home.
0 -
Dogs bark and cats miaow and Bob's the pb Cassandra. All is right with the world.Bob__Sykes said:So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.0 -
Is there any polling on the 30-35% of people who don't usually vote, and whether they are suddenly Corbyn fans?
The conventional wisdom that the campaign doesn't change anything seems to be wrong this time, is it non-voters who are becoming engaged? There do seem to be a lot of people who have no experience (some might say clue) and who are appearing in the VI figures now....
Con-Lab switchers since 2015 makes no sense to me, although a lot of what we're seeing is incomprehensible :-(
When's the next poll?
0 -
-
The purpose of the election campaign is, well, the election at the end and the result, and opinion polls claim to be able to measure public opinion so that one can foretell what the result will be. Of course people will find them interesting.isam said:Why do people take the opinion polls so seriously? Every time one shows anything, they analyse exactly what would happen if the poll was accurate, despite knowing that it probably isn't. Seems like just something to do
We could save time waiting by just not having polls but instead running a program that randomly picks numbers and gives them to parties, then discuss what would happen if it were the result
And, they're not as inaccurate as they are sometimes made out to be. They can't often have been more than ten points out.
If we didn't have the opinion polls people might still be taking seriously the idea that Farron could rally the Remainers to create a Lib Dem surge.0 -
Am in on the Cambridge betting ? No Huppert looks too short.Pulpstar said:
Are you in Cambridge again this time ?TGOHF said:
Corbo's unwavering support for Adams and the IRA certainly delayed the IRA's surrender.JWisemann said:Fucking hell, Farron really is a pathetic little weasel of a loser. Any non-idiotic Lib Dem leader of the last twenty years would have agreed with Corbyn's very reasonable points that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that aiding and abetting jihadis in Syria and Libya might not be a recipe for making us safer at home.
I'd say Red signs are outnumbering orange by 2-1 at present.
Unless we have shy LDs.0 -
Well Stroll has already taken the opportunity to bin it.Nigelb said:
Two words (and there are others...): Stroll, Palmer.Sandpit said:
No SC is a great bet, was a good value loser last year in the rain and the forecast is for the sun to shine on Sunday.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, I believe you saw (and derided
) my 6.5 No Safety Car bet.
I think it's astonishing that Vettel is 1.9 to win and Raikkonen 19 (down to 19.5 on Betfair, I put a little on him at 27).
If the Ferrari *is* the fastest car, then 19 for Raikkonen to win each way is worth consideration.
Take a look at last year's race by the way - the Monganesque marshals are rather good, with literally dozens of cranes, trolleys, jack and other ways of moving stuck cars out of the way. Last year there were no safety cars except for the start behind it in the rain, every incident was dealt with by the VSC. We'll only see the actual SC for a multi car pile up or if a medical car needs to be deployed (they always send both) as when young Max went straight to the scene of a very fast accident at Ste Dévote in 2015.
Mr Dancer and I are not saying the bet will win, we're saying it should be 6/4 or 2/1, rather than the 6/1 it's priced at.0 -
No no your own voteTGOHF said:
Am in on the Cambridge betting ? No Huppert looks too short.Pulpstar said:
Are you in Cambridge again this time ?TGOHF said:
Corbo's unwavering support for Adams and the IRA certainly delayed the IRA's surrender.JWisemann said:Fucking hell, Farron really is a pathetic little weasel of a loser. Any non-idiotic Lib Dem leader of the last twenty years would have agreed with Corbyn's very reasonable points that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that aiding and abetting jihadis in Syria and Libya might not be a recipe for making us safer at home.
I'd say Red signs are outnumbering orange by 2-1 at present.
Unless we have shy LDs. 0 -
You'd think so but I've heard nothing from any party in this campaign about his nutty beliefs. Most people are unaware of them. He is getting away with murder.MarqueeMark said:
I really do hope the masses get to listen to what Cobyn thinks now. He'll be squashed like a bug.bigjohnowls said:
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.0 -
Long time lurker, first time commentator.
What has surprised me with the terrible Tory campaign is how little the economy has featured. The Tories winning USP has been that they will take the necessary tough economic decisions. So they win when the economic argument is that 'Labour wreaked the economy; Conservatives will fix it" or, when in government, "The economy is recovering; don't let Labour wreak it". When times are good (1997) people feel free to vote for Labour's free kittens for all.
So May should have framed the election that Brexit is happening but its an economic risk needing tough choices which would have made Corbyn's give away seem utterly irresponsible. Instead we got 'Strong and Stable' but no risk. So the tough cuts in the Manifesto just look mean rather than necessary. If the economy is fine they let's spend like drunken sailors.
As to why I think she wanted to distance herself from the Cameron/Osbourne playbook forgetting they won.0 -
Chances of Lab overall majority is nil in 2017 so it would be Corbyn at the beck and whim of the Scottish separatists.Bob__Sykes said:So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.0 -
-
I wouldn't underestimate how many voted for Brexit to give Cameron and the establishment a kicking. It would be entirely consistent to then vote for Corbyn for the same reasons.Fenster said:Despite the polls, the fundamental problem for Labour is that 17.4m people voted for Brexit last year, largely in working class areas. It will take an enormous amount of voter cognitive dissonance for those voters to vote for Corbyn.
0 -
Has she put her foot in her mouth?Scott_P said:0 -
Welcome, @MinnieBannister!0
-
That doesn't make me feel better...Norm said:
Chances of Lab overall majority is nil in 2017 so it would be Corbyn at the beck and whim of the Scottish separatists.Bob__Sykes said:So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.0 -
An O-turn = doughnuts. get her on top gear now.calum said:
Betting wise. opportunities in westminster north depending on how much you believe the latest polls. most bookies have cut the reds with paddys/betfair now 4/7 Con gain. But Laddys/Coral and still 7/2 Labour Hold. I've gone in again on the latter. DYOR.0 -
I'm not saying don't have them, I just wonder why people discuss the consequences of each one when they are released when you could discuss those consequences each day anyway.OblitusSumMe said:
The purpose of the election campaign is, well, the election at the end and the result, and opinion polls claim to be able to measure public opinion so that one can foretell what the result will be. Of course people will find them interesting.isam said:Why do people take the opinion polls so seriously? Every time one shows anything, they analyse exactly what would happen if the poll was accurate, despite knowing that it probably isn't. Seems like just something to do
We could save time waiting by just not having polls but instead running a program that randomly picks numbers and gives them to parties, then discuss what would happen if it were the result
And, they're not as inaccurate as they are sometimes made out to be. They can't often have been more than ten points out.
If we didn't have the opinion polls people might still be taking seriously the idea that Farron could rally the Remainers to create a Lib Dem surge.
You could say that people are taking seriously the idea that Corbyn could rally the students to create a Labour govt only because of the polls!0 -
Miss (?) Bannister, welcome to pb.com.
I agree. May's underwhelming, authoritarian, meddling, has had a horrendous campaign and squandered 10-15 points of lead or so.
The alternative, however, is even worse. Quite worried about how the election will turn out. Not only the result, but even if Corbyn loses, he might hang on.0 -
Finding any signs at all is relatively challenging! Where are you looking?Pulpstar said:
No no your own voteTGOHF said:
Am in on the Cambridge betting ? No Huppert looks too short.Pulpstar said:
Are you in Cambridge again this time ?TGOHF said:
Corbo's unwavering support for Adams and the IRA certainly delayed the IRA's surrender.JWisemann said:Fucking hell, Farron really is a pathetic little weasel of a loser. Any non-idiotic Lib Dem leader of the last twenty years would have agreed with Corbyn's very reasonable points that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that aiding and abetting jihadis in Syria and Libya might not be a recipe for making us safer at home.
I'd say Red signs are outnumbering orange by 2-1 at present.
Unless we have shy LDs.0 -
Yeah, the other day she wanted a final solution against MuslimsSandpit said:
Has she put her foot in her mouth?Scott_P said:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/23/manchester-attack-police-investigate-katie-hopkins-final-solution-tweet0 -
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etccalum said:
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.0 -
He's certainly getting away with supporting those who committed murder....Alice_Aforethought said:
You'd think so but I've heard nothing from any party in this campaign about his nutty beliefs. Most people are unaware of them. He is getting away with murder.MarqueeMark said:
I really do hope the masses get to listen to what Cobyn thinks now. He'll be squashed like a bug.bigjohnowls said:
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.0 -
Corbyn is not blaming Britain he is saying these outrageous Acts are pure evil.Fenster said:
Only a Moron would claim our Foreign policy hasnt contributed to making the world a less safe place and created more environments Libya for example where such Evil can flourish.
I remember Ken Clarke warning of this in the Iraq debate.
He was right. A Ken Clarke Tory Party would be miles ahead0 -
Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .0
-
Scott_P said:
Here, have a kitten....0 -
That, or this one was a bit of an outlier.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
0 -
Maajid Nawaz going mad at Corbyn's justification for terrorsim on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/868026712784871426
https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/8680283402209566730 -
Welcome @MinnieBannisterMinnieBannister said:Long time lurker, first time commentator.
What has surprised me with the terrible Tory campaign is how little the economy has featured. The Tories winning USP has been that they will take the necessary tough economic decisions. So they win when the economic argument is that 'Labour wreaked the economy; Conservatives will fix it" or, when in government, "The economy is recovering; don't let Labour wreak it". When times are good (1997) people feel free to vote for Labour's free kittens for all.
So May should have framed the election that Brexit is happening but its an economic risk needing tough choices which would have made Corbyn's give away seem utterly irresponsible. Instead we got 'Strong and Stable' but no risk. So the tough cuts in the Manifesto just look mean rather than necessary. If the economy is fine they let's spend like drunken sailors.
As to why I think she wanted to distance herself from the Cameron/Osbourne playbook forgetting they won.
You should have added "We'll all be murdered in our beds!"
0 -
We didn't act in Syria and Syria is going brilliantly. There are costs to inaction as well as action.bigjohnowls said:
Corbyn is not blaming Britain he is saying these outrageous Acts are pure evil.Fenster said:
Only a Moron would claim our Foreign policy hasnt contributed to making the world a less safe place and created more environments Libya for example where such Evil can flourish.
I remember Ken Clarke warning of this in the Iraq debate.
He was right. A Ken Clarke Tory Party would be miles ahead0 -
Even when May wins the election she has catastrophically damaged her image and power. Far better to have basked in the opinion poll adulation and used the threat of an early election to keep people in line rather than have exposed her weaknesses as a leader in this way.SouthamObserver said:
. It is amusing to see right wing Brexiteers suddenly beginning to contemplate that they may have started something they cannot control. Corbyn will lose handily, there could easily still be a Tory landslide, but the voting public is making it very clear it does not believe the Tories have all the answers. Far from it, in fact. That is going to make the next few years even more interesting than they already promised to be.RochdalePioneers said:What recent elections have shown us is that the public mood is fickle and can swing significantly as the campaign reaches the closing stages. In 2015 I was convinced Labour would win going off what we were hearing on the doors. Right up until the final week when "Milliband will be the SNP puppet" resonated hard. Tory voters came flooding back and surprised everyone including the Tories.
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning:
1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all
2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society.
3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters
4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn0 -
-
Are we still expecting a decisive attack on Corbyn in the last two weeks? (12 days and counting...)MarqueeMark said:
He's certainly getting away with supporting those who committed murder....Alice_Aforethought said:
You'd think so but I've heard nothing from any party in this campaign about his nutty beliefs. Most people are unaware of them. He is getting away with murder.MarqueeMark said:
I really do hope the masses get to listen to what Cobyn thinks now. He'll be squashed like a bug.bigjohnowls said:
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.SouthamObserver said:
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.Chris said:
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.SouthamObserver said:Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.0 -
Ha! You've got me there.isam said:You could say that people are taking seriously the idea that Corbyn could rally the students to create a Labour govt only because of the polls!
I do think this is likely to be a repeat of 2010 and a whole bunch of people who are currently telling the pollsters they will vote Corbyn will mistake liking memes on facebook with marking their cross at the polling booth.0 -
-
Jesus H I sure hope so.OblitusSumMe said:
Ha! You've got me there.isam said:You could say that people are taking seriously the idea that Corbyn could rally the students to create a Labour govt only because of the polls!
I do think this is likely to be a repeat of 2010 and a whole bunch of people who are currently telling the pollsters they will vote Corbyn will mistake liking memes on facebook with marking their cross at the polling booth.0 -
Mr. Harrow, even before the self-harming manifesto of May, I was saying the Conservatives should be hammering Corbyn over that.
They've screwed the campaign up badly. Even if they win, the margin will be much smaller than it should've been.0 -
Charles Clarke made exactly that point on Newnsight yesterday - I was quite impressed by his contribution; knowledgeable, calm and well-reasoned. The fact that I felt that way is a fairly damning indictment of the current batch of politicians; of all persuasions.Fenster said:
We didn't act in Syria and Syria is going brilliantly. There are costs to inaction as well as action.bigjohnowls said:
Corbyn is not blaming Britain he is saying these outrageous Acts are pure evil.Fenster said:
Only a Moron would claim our Foreign policy hasnt contributed to making the world a less safe place and created more environments Libya for example where such Evil can flourish.
I remember Ken Clarke warning of this in the Iraq debate.
He was right. A Ken Clarke Tory Party would be miles ahead0 -
As the pollsters will tell you, I represent a demographic they find hard to contact, Northern working class Tories, the ethnic minority demographic.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
That's why I get so many invites, that and I live in the most polled constituency in the last general election.0 -
I don't think they would agree that they surrendered.TGOHF said:
Corbo's unwavering support for Adams and the IRA certainly delayed the IRA's surrender.JWisemann said:Fucking hell, Farron really is a pathetic little weasel of a loser. Any non-idiotic Lib Dem leader of the last twenty years would have agreed with Corbyn's very reasonable points that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that aiding and abetting jihadis in Syria and Libya might not be a recipe for making us safer at home.
0 -
Probably not as bad as the destruction of their lucrative foreign student fees base, when May goes all out for a sub 100,000 migrant number.rkrkrk said:
Eek. That's bad.RobD said:IFS on Labour's tuition fees plan. They say universities will have 30% less funding per year per student by 2021-22.
Unless she has ruled out students and I missed it.0 -
For those Remainers who think Brexit will be a disaster - just imagine a post-Brexit Britain with Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbot at the helm...
5 million unemployed, anyone?0 -
Seems that TSE and other pb Conservatives were not polled in the latest poll so yes a bit of an oulier .RobD said:
That, or this one was a bit of an outlier.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB2di69FmhEMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, could you explain what you mean by that?
0 -
Ah. Sometimes trying to be deliberately controversial crosses the line into being gratuitously offensiveTheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, the other day she wanted a final solution against MuslimsSandpit said:
Has she put her foot in her mouth?Scott_P said:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/23/manchester-attack-police-investigate-katie-hopkins-final-solution-tweet0 -
I was polled in this YouGov poll.MarkSenior said:
Seems that TSE and other pb Conservatives were not polled in the latest poll so yes a bit of an oulier .RobD said:
That, or this one was a bit of an outlier.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
So you're wrong.0 -
I'm shocked!TheScreamingEagles said:
I was polled in this YouGov poll.MarkSenior said:
Seems that TSE and other pb Conservatives were not polled in the latest poll so yes a bit of an oulier .RobD said:
That, or this one was a bit of an outlier.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
So you're wrong.0 -
Poetic justice for robotic reactionary Hopkins.calum said:0 -
Ah yes but if your views are not typical of that ethnic minority demographic , constantly sampling you will instigate a systematic error into their polls .TheScreamingEagles said:
As the pollsters will tell you, I represent a demographic they find hard to contact, Northern working class Tories, the ethnic minority demographic.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
That's why I get so many invites, that and I live in the most polled constituency in the last general election.0 -
-
lol, what? You can only poll people of an ethnic minority who hold the view of the majority of that minority?MarkSenior said:
Ah yes but if your views are not typical of that ethnic minority demographic , constantly sampling you will instigate a systematic error into their polls .TheScreamingEagles said:
As the pollsters will tell you, I represent a demographic they find hard to contact, Northern working class Tories, the ethnic minority demographic.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
That's why I get so many invites, that and I live in the most polled constituency in the last general election.0 -
She is a gobby publicity-seeking whore, but I would not have sacked her. She represents a strand of public opinion.calum said:0 -
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.JonCisBack said:
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etccalum said:
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them0 -
Isn't that Corbyn's new slogan, unless we get out of Syria, Iraq, Libya, Gibraltar, Northern Ireland and TimbuktuDisraeli said:
Welcome @MinnieBannister
You should have added "We'll all be murdered in our beds!"0 -
So you are polled in every Yougov poll , no wonder they are not representative of the country as a whole .TheScreamingEagles said:
I was polled in this YouGov poll.MarkSenior said:
Seems that TSE and other pb Conservatives were not polled in the latest poll so yes a bit of an oulier .RobD said:
That, or this one was a bit of an outlier.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
So you're wrong.0 -
I think that's quite likely but after it gets to 3 million parliament will reverse the Referendum and we'll all live happily ever after.....MarqueeMark said:For those Remainers who think Brexit will be a disaster - just imagine a post-Brexit Britain with Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbot at the helm...
5 million unemployed, anyone?0 -
Which also explains why the LibDim figure is over-inflated.MarkSenior said:
So you are polled in every Yougov poll , no wonder they are not representative of the country as a whole .TheScreamingEagles said:
I was polled in this YouGov poll.MarkSenior said:
Seems that TSE and other pb Conservatives were not polled in the latest poll so yes a bit of an oulier .RobD said:
That, or this one was a bit of an outlier.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
So you're wrong.0 -
No.MarkSenior said:
So you are polled in every Yougov poll , no wonder they are not representative of the country as a whole .TheScreamingEagles said:
I was polled in this YouGov poll.MarkSenior said:
Seems that TSE and other pb Conservatives were not polled in the latest poll so yes a bit of an oulier .RobD said:
That, or this one was a bit of an outlier.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
So you're wrong.
0 -
Mr. Meeks, cheers for posting that.
Worth noting that whilst immigration was a major issue it was far from the only one. Also, the country would be just as divided had it been 52-48 the other way, only the political and media class would've been more unified.
Mr. Labour, she does... but final solution is beyond the pale, I think.0 -
Jeremy Corbyn will take his original slot on Friday 26th May at 7pm, in what was originally meant to be the last of the interviews, while Nuttall, Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron's episodes will take place over the following days.
On 28th May at 6pm, Neil will interview SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon.
This will be followed by Ukip's Paul Nuttall on 29th May at 7.30pm, and Lib Dem leader Tim Farron at 7pm on 1st June, according to the editor of the BBC's Daily & Sunday Politics Robbie Gibb.0 -
LOL , Nope you sample a different representative of that demographic in every poll to get a variety of views not the same person in every poll .RobD said:
lol, what? You can only poll people of an ethnic minority who hold the view of the majority of that minority?MarkSenior said:
Ah yes but if your views are not typical of that ethnic minority demographic , constantly sampling you will instigate a systematic error into their polls .TheScreamingEagles said:
As the pollsters will tell you, I represent a demographic they find hard to contact, Northern working class Tories, the ethnic minority demographic.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
That's why I get so many invites, that and I live in the most polled constituency in the last general election.0 -
It looks like that is what they do.MarkSenior said:
LOL , Nope you sample a different representative of that demographic in every poll to get a variety of views not the same person in every poll .RobD said:
lol, what? You can only poll people of an ethnic minority who hold the view of the majority of that minority?MarkSenior said:
Ah yes but if your views are not typical of that ethnic minority demographic , constantly sampling you will instigate a systematic error into their polls .TheScreamingEagles said:
As the pollsters will tell you, I represent a demographic they find hard to contact, Northern working class Tories, the ethnic minority demographic.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
That's why I get so many invites, that and I live in the most polled constituency in the last general election.0 -
Bigger, faster, less controllable cars - and some very inexperienced drivers. And a serious bunfight for position in the midfield.Sandpit said:
Well Stroll has already taken the opportunity to bin it.Nigelb said:
Two words (and there are others...): Stroll, Palmer.Sandpit said:
No SC is a great bet, was a good value loser last year in the rain and the forecast is for the sun to shine on Sunday.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, I believe you saw (and derided
) my 6.5 No Safety Car bet.
I think it's astonishing that Vettel is 1.9 to win and Raikkonen 19 (down to 19.5 on Betfair, I put a little on him at 27).
If the Ferrari *is* the fastest car, then 19 for Raikkonen to win each way is worth consideration.
Take a look at last year's race by the way - the Monganesque marshals are rather good, with literally dozens of cranes, trolleys, jack and other ways of moving stuck cars out of the way. Last year there were no safety cars except for the start behind it in the rain, every incident was dealt with by the VSC. We'll only see the actual SC for a multi car pile up or if a medical car needs to be deployed (they always send both) as when young Max went straight to the scene of a very fast accident at Ste Dévote in 2015.
Mr Dancer and I are not saying the bet will win, we're saying it should be 6/4 or 2/1, rather than the 6/1 it's priced at.
I take the point about the VSC, but not 100% convinced.0 -
Liam Fox or Diane Abbott in charge of Brexit is the political equivalent of Sophie's choice.MarqueeMark said:For those Remainers who think Brexit will be a disaster - just imagine a post-Brexit Britain with Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbot at the helm...
5 million unemployed, anyone?0 -
Happy Birthday, Jeremy!0
-
How ? I am a Lib Dem and have not been polled in any of these polls so clearly the Lib Dem figure is under stated !!!!TudorRose said:
Which also explains why the LibDim figure is over-inflated.MarkSenior said:
So you are polled in every Yougov poll , no wonder they are not representative of the country as a whole .TheScreamingEagles said:
I was polled in this YouGov poll.MarkSenior said:
Seems that TSE and other pb Conservatives were not polled in the latest poll so yes a bit of an oulier .RobD said:
That, or this one was a bit of an outlier.MarkSenior said:Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
So you're wrong.0 -
Mr. B, a safety car is odds on, I just think the odds are mispriced. We'll find out soon enough.0
-
Who LBC choose to employ is a commercial matter for them. I never listen to it anyway, largely because they specialise in empty vessels who make a lot of sound.0
-
I think it takes time for events to feed into the polls. Yougov is showing us social care and I reckon that will still be in some of the weekend numbers. The Tories now get to relaunch, go heavy on national security (perfect "excuse" to tweak manifesto) and the economy.
The papers will like the ensuing narrative as the momentum shifts to the Tories in the final ten days and the pollsters are off the hook as everyone will say "late swing".0 -
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year oldsSandpit said:
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.JonCisBack said:
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etccalum said:
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/867883835953881088
0 -
PROJECT FEAR 2: THE CORBYNINGMarqueeMark said:For those Remainers who think Brexit will be a disaster - just imagine a post-Brexit Britain with Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbot at the helm...
5 million unemployed, anyone?0
