politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov has CON lead BELOW what it was at GE2015
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Deep breaths Rob, deep breaths....TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Sunday.
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in!
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I'm sure one of the polls in the final three weeks will be about right.The_Apocalypse said:I can't wait until the 8th June - to see whether these polls are really true, or whether we are heading for another polling disaster.
It's made what has been so far a very boring election a bit exciting.
The trick is going to be figuring out which one.0 -
I doubt this will cheer you up Max, but coaxing the Tories to move in a more radical direction was certainly one of my objectives when I voted for Corbyn.MaxPB said:We've gone from a 20+ point lead to a 5 point lead. All since Theresa released Timothy's manifesto. These policies are a disaster for our party. We are not the party of energy caps, higher taxes on risk takers or property theft. Fighting this battle on Ed Miliband's turf is a disaster. Theresa needs to beg Oliver Letwin's to come back and rewrite the manifesto over the long weekend and re-reveal it on Tuesday.
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The breakfast plan probably will be a 'small fry'...Pong said:
The breakfast plan seems to be uncosted garbage, although it's small fry in the scheme of things. The IFS will almost certainly find some other holes, too. We'll see how serious they are.RobD said:
I'm hoping the IFS manifesto analysis tomorrow provides a nice pivot onto manifesto costings. Although who knows, there may be a bigger whole in the Tory one!!kle4 said:Well I'm off. Tories need a narrative, as mattyneth says, and yet the only suggestion seems to be the one they keep saying will happen and make all the difference, bring up Corbyn's IRA stuff. Too late. Labour are bouncing right now, Tories need to knock them back, have some big leads restored, or they risk a further unravelling as it seems more bad news is to come.
The tories main problem is they've quietly conceded on austerity.
...I'll get my coat.0 -
See the edit.RobD said:
Deep breaths Rob, deep breaths....TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Sunday.
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in!0 -
Why should he? What is in it for him? Humiliate at haste repent at leisure and all that.LadyBucket said:It will be interesting to see if George Osborne puts aside his childish vendetta against the PM and goes after Corbyn.
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I wouldn't bother.TMA1 said:
You have a funny way of showing it. You mention inheritance tax. Is it not labour who propose to raise IHT. Their Manifesto clearly shows that they would lower IHT threshold - ie collect more money of yoy when you are safely dead. And they make no suggestion that they make any allowance for inflation. But you seek to tar Mrs May with this brush wheras she and the Tories actually plan to inclrease the threshold so a couples allowance would be £1 million.TheScreamingEagles said:
Then your thinking is deficient.TMA1 said:
So where does increasing the minimum amount to be left from 24k to 100k fit in with this analysis? Or does analysys fail you when discussing Mrs May? I am left thinking you prefer Abbotts way with figures.TheScreamingEagles said:
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.rkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
Are you sure about your mathemetical abilities?
Clown_Crash_HQ and myself -- both of whom have had recent experience of the social care system -- have been trying to explain how the present system works,
No-one is interested.
If they are on the right, they want to scream 'Dementia Tax" because they believe there shouldn't be a social care system. If they are on the left, they want to scream 'Dementia Tax' because they see it can damage the Tories.
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TheScreamingEagles said:
See the edit.RobD said:
Deep breaths Rob, deep breaths....TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Sunday.
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in! And these are all expected Saturday night? 0 -
RodCrosby would be able to tell.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm sure one of the polls in the final three weeks will be about right.The_Apocalypse said:I can't wait until the 8th June - to see whether these polls are really true, or whether we are heading for another polling disaster.
It's made what has been so far a very boring election a bit exciting.
The trick is going to be figuring out which one.
Does anyone know what he's doing these days.
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I can see Labour voters tactically voting LD but fewer of the remaining LD voters voting Labour and most UKIP voters going Tory, so that means there could be a large swing to the LDs in Tory-LD Remain seats and a big swing to the Tories in Tory-Labour Leave seats and almost no change in Tory-Labour Remain seats and a small swing to the Tories in Tory-LD Leave seatsBarnesian said:
Quite. Sarah Olney won the Richmond Park by election in part because almost all Labour supporters voted for her, unlike in 2015 when they certainly abandoned the LibDems.rcs1000 said:
In 1997, the LibDems dropped 1% from their 1992 total to 16.8%. Yet they increased their seat count by almost 150%. Why? Tactical voting.Philip_Thompson said:
Tactical voting in whose favour?rcs1000 said:
I would be very interested in seeing some polling evidence of whether tactical voting is returning. That could be the difference between 150 seat majority and a 25 seat one.HYUFD said:
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labourkle4 said:Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
2 party voting seems to be returning, both parties are dramatically up leaving fewer third party votes to squeeze tactically.
Last year in Scotland, the LibDems lost share in the constituency portion of the Holyrood vote, yet doubled their number of seats, and came close in Caithness, Sutherland & Ross, and managed an impressive 15% bump in Argyll & Bute. Why? Tactical voting.
If Labour voters in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Bath, Lewes, etc., choose to vote tactically for the LibDems - which they backed away from in 2015 - then those seats could be lost, even with the LDs on just 10%.0 -
Not sure what happened to my previous answer but here goes again...TheKitchenCabinet said:But YouGov has a panel of 800,000 people in the UK, and that has been developed over many years. You would need a huge number of people to take part in this secret infiltration operation, and it would take a long time. And what would it achieve, given that the discrepancy with phone polls would be obvious? And that only a tiny part of the electorate obsess over opinion polls anyway?
800,000 sounds impressive but the actual number of respondents will be very low and has been trending lower over time because people are less inclined to do surveys etc. The polling companies have to get a certain number of people to respond to make the poll "credible" so they will poll until they do. As I said before, standards in the industry have been cut because margins are under pressure as ad hoc research is seen as less valuable. Thus, it is likely that the polling companies are becoming reliant on a smaller number of active respondents.
The key is what I said about they need to get the numbers up to make a survey credible. For all the talk about random samples and high standards etc, if you are under time pressure and your response rate is dropping, you start relying on a smaller number of respondents, which makes it easier to influence.
IF - and let's make that a big IF for now - YouGov gets the final result seriously wrong, then their entire business model is stuffed.0 -
U-turns are sometimes necessary to avoid a car-crash.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's all about PERCEPTIONS.TMA1 said:
You have a funny way of showing it. You mention inheritance tax. Is it not labour who propose to raise IHT. Their Manifesto clearly shows that they would lower IHT threshold - ie collect more money of yoy when you are safely dead. And they make no suggestion that they make any allowance for inflation. But you seek to tar Mrs May with this brush wheras she and the Tories actually plan to inclrease the threshold so a couples allowance would be £1 million.TheScreamingEagles said:
Then your thinking is deficient.TMA1 said:
So where does increasing the minimum amount to be left from 24k to 100k fit in with this analysis? Or does analysys fail you when discussing Mrs May? I am left thinking you prefer Abbotts way with figures.TheScreamingEagles said:
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.rkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
Are you sure about your mathemetical abilities?
You know it was a crap idea, because of the u-turn.
As Sir David Butler pointed out, when was the last time a party u-turned on their manifesto during a campaign.
As I pointed several times last week, I was quite supportive of principles behind the social care changes, they needed some refinement.0 -
Could be the one they don't publish because it looks unbelievable. :-(Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm sure one of the polls in the final three weeks will be about right.The_Apocalypse said:I can't wait until the 8th June - to see whether these polls are really true, or whether we are heading for another polling disaster.
It's made what has been so far a very boring election a bit exciting.
The trick is going to be figuring out which one.0 -
That suggests these poll movements are analogous to the Cleggasm - young people telling pollsters they will vote for the trendy new thing, but not actually bothering to turn up to the polling station.Quincel said:
It isn't one poll, though. There's been a rash of polls showing a sharp tightening of the race.Sandpit said:LOL at the hysterical over-reaction to one poll.
Con Majority is now out to 1.15 on Betfair though, so worth a top up, and tomorrow we have the joy of Corbyn's speech blaming Britain for terrorism followed by him sitting down with Andrew Neil - someone who's seen everything before and isn't going to pull any punches.
Night all!
What doesn't make any sense to me is Copeland and the locals. The Tories got magnificent results, don't tell me that was from voters who weren't paying attention yet. And the boost for Labour in the current polling is from young and non-voters - not old voters defecting due to #DementiaTax.
Why have these voters suddenly woken up when they didn't mere weeks ago?0 -
The central position might have slipped from 45-46% to 44-45%. Colour me unimpressed.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Had you waited a few minutes before posting that (at 9.06pm)....ThreeQuidder said:
Other than a bounce when May called the GE, the Tory rating has been remarkably stable. As ever, look at the share, not the lead.Wulfrun_Phil said:
If in your view the Labour campaign has been poor, the Tory one so far has to be judged as truly dire, given the change in the polls since things kicked off.leomckinstry said:If any of these things had happened to previous Labour leaders, they would have been crucified. But we have become so desensitized to Corbyn's extremism and incompetence that none of this seems to matter. Expectations are so low that he is being given an easy ride.
If we start seeing lots of polls at 41-43%, I'll naturally revisit this. No reason to do so yet, though.0 -
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You know what, I'd love to see a poll with the Tories up. Just one? Please?
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Sporting still haven't moved their Seat Spreads for the Tories or Labour. IG are down 1 seat on the Tories at 385 - 391 and up 1 seat on Labour at 171 - 176. Nerves of steel is what I call it .... In continuing to forecast a Tory majority of upwards of 120 seats, their clients clearly have a very different take on things compared with your average PBer. With that in mind and unlike OGH, I've decided against lumping any further money on the spreads, at least for now. But I haven't chickened out altogether - sticking a nifty 50 on Hills' <388.5 Tory Seats (equivalent to a Tory majority of <126 seats at 5/6 and I've also grabbed a tenner's worth of their 326 - 350 Tory seat band at a tasty 10/1 as I referred to upthread.
DYOR.0 -
Labour still has a man problem.Danny565 said:Tories ahead with men 45% to 32%.
Labour ahead with women 43% to 40%.0 -
25-49 year olds ... many of whose only chance to own a house will be to inherit it from their elderly parents. A chance May (in perception at least) just torpedoed. We're doomed.Danny565 said:Tories ahead with men 45% to 32%.
Labour ahead with women 43% to 40%.
Labour have a stonking lead with 18-24-year-olds, but also a healthy 17-point lead with 25-49-year-olds (a HUGE swing with that age bracket since the start of the election). The Tories are still pretty much as strong as ever with the 65+ age bracket, a 48-point lead.0 -
What does TMA1 stand for ?TMA1 said:
This despite spending more on MI5 and the security services? Despite Corbyn wanting to leave NATO? Despite Corbyn speaking on behalf of terrorists wherever he can find them and urging us to wave a white flag in response to the black one?MonikerDiCanio said:
May, ex-Home Secretary and current PM, has tried to dodge responsibility and outrageously has tried to smear her opponent Corbyn as a security risk. The British public is expressing its disgust.peter_from_putney said:Just wondering what impact the Manchester tragedy might be having and the extent to which this might continue through until 8 June.
Where do you get your ideas from? There seems to be little logic to them.
Theresa May arselicker 1 ?0 -
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The last time I couldn't bear to vote for one of the main parties was in 1997. Then I voted Official Monster Raving Loony. This time there is no candidate in my constituency. Where is the loony when you need one?0
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MonikerDiCanio
As you may all have noticed I am neither an admirer of Corbyn nor a Labour supporter. I do not think that Corbyn can win this election or even draw it.
However I would be cheering from the rafters if yet another Lynton Crosby smear campaign comes unstuck.0 -
BREAKING: Diane Abbott new Senior Data Analyst at YouGov0
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Yes, I think one might straggle over to Sunday morning.RobD said:TheScreamingEagles said:
See the edit.RobD said:
Deep breaths Rob, deep breaths....TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Sunday.
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in! And these are all expected Saturday night?0 -
They claim their response rate is 35-50%:MarqueeMark said:
Not sure what happened to my previous answer but here goes again...TheKitchenCabinet said:But YouGov has a panel of 800,000 people in the UK, and that has been developed over many years. You would need a huge number of people to take part in this secret infiltration operation, and it would take a long time. And what would it achieve, given that the discrepancy with phone polls would be obvious? And that only a tiny part of the electorate obsess over opinion polls anyway?
800,000 sounds impressive but the actual number of respondents will be very low and has been trending lower over time because people are less inclined to do surveys etc. The polling companies have to get a certain number of people to respond to make the poll "credible" so they will poll until they do. As I said before, standards in the industry have been cut because margins are under pressure as ad hoc research is seen as less valuable. Thus, it is likely that the polling companies are becoming reliant on a smaller number of active respondents.
https://data.cdrc.ac.uk/dataset/yougov-survey-data0 -
Tycho Magnetic Anomaly 1MonikerDiCanio said:
What does TMA1 stand for ?TMA1 said:
This despite spending more on MI5 and the security services? Despite Corbyn wanting to leave NATO? Despite Corbyn speaking on behalf of terrorists wherever he can find them and urging us to wave a white flag in response to the black one?MonikerDiCanio said:
May, ex-Home Secretary and current PM, has tried to dodge responsibility and outrageously has tried to smear her opponent Corbyn as a security risk. The British public is expressing its disgust.peter_from_putney said:Just wondering what impact the Manchester tragedy might be having and the extent to which this might continue through until 8 June.
Where do you get your ideas from? There seems to be little logic to them.
Theresa May arselicker 1 ?0 -
Just seen the YouGov. Doesn't tally at all with canvassing tonight. Pre-Manchester, the social care proposals genuinely were an issue; today, I didn't get anything of the sort.
At the very least, we should exercise considerable scepticism about a poll which at the moment is well out of line with the rest of the industry.0 -
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Against the Tories everywhere.foxinsoxuk said:
Well, it all depends who the tactical vote is against.Barnesian said:
A big return to tactical voting would explain the figures and invalidate the Baxter type models.rcs1000 said:
I would be very interested in seeing some polling evidence of whether tactical voting is returning. That could be the difference between 150 seat majority and a 25 seat one.HYUFD said:
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labourkle4 said:Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
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Looks like I'm off to Canada then....0
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Cant even do a proper U TurnSunil_Prasannan said:
U-turns are sometimes necessary to avoid a car-crash.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's all about PERCEPTIONS.TMA1 said:
You have a funny way of showing it. You mention inheritance tax. Is it not labour who propose to raise IHT. Their Manifesto clearly shows that they would lower IHT threshold - ie collect more money of yoy when you are safely dead. And they make no suggestion that they make any allowance for inflation. But you seek to tar Mrs May with this brush wheras she and the Tories actually plan to inclrease the threshold so a couples allowance would be £1 million.TheScreamingEagles said:
Then your thinking is deficient.TMA1 said:
So where does increasing the minimum amount to be left from 24k to 100k fit in with this analysis? Or does analysys fail you when discussing Mrs May? I am left thinking you prefer Abbotts way with figures.TheScreamingEagles said:
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.rkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
Are you sure about your mathemetical abilities?
You know it was a crap idea, because of the u-turn.
As Sir David Butler pointed out, when was the last time a party u-turned on their manifesto during a campaign.
As I pointed several times last week, I was quite supportive of principles behind the social care changes, they needed some refinement.
House theft for most still likely when TMICIPM0 -
63%? Starting to a pattern in these polls. Hmmmm.nunu said:
Of course this might be the election in which they vote, and the observation earlier that the Labour movement in TNS comes from those who didn't vote in the Referendum might be a leading indicator in the opposite direction than what you might think: "those older bastards did me over Brexit, I'm voting this time". But I wouldn't bet on it (literally).0 -
I'm not a big fan of bank holiday polls - the next 'sensible' polls won't be for another week.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, I think one might straggle over to Sunday morning.RobD said:TheScreamingEagles said:
See the edit.RobD said:
Deep breaths Rob, deep breaths....TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Sunday.
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in! And these are all expected Saturday night?0 -
They loved that tuition fees pledge.nunu said:0 -
A high proportion of those would be inheritors would be in southern England.blueblue said:
25-49 year olds ... many of whose only chance to own a house will be to inherit it from their elderly parents. A chance May (in perception at least) just torpedoed. We're doomed.Danny565 said:Tories ahead with men 45% to 32%.
Labour ahead with women 43% to 40%.
Labour have a stonking lead with 18-24-year-olds, but also a healthy 17-point lead with 25-49-year-olds (a HUGE swing with that age bracket since the start of the election). The Tories are still pretty much as strong as ever with the 65+ age bracket, a 48-point lead.0 -
But all you do in your writings is reinforce those perceptions instead of rebutting them. Clearly old people with assets have more to fear from Corbyn than May -- its spelled out in their manifesto (and been clearly pointed out by the conservatives) - - and old people with no or limited assets have nothing to fear from May since the allowance has been increased. And of course unlike now, no one would lose any assets at all as long as they remained alive.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's all about PERCEPTIONS.TMA1 said:
You have a funny way of showing it. You mention inheritance tax. Is it not labour who propose to raise IHT. Their Manifesto clearly shows that they would lower IHT threshold - ie collect more money of yoy when you are safely dead. And they make no suggestion that they make any allowance for inflation. But you seek to tar Mrs May with this brush wheras she and the Tories actually plan to inclrease the threshold so a couples allowance would be £1 million.TheScreamingEagles said:
Then your thinking is deficient.TMA1 said:
So where does increasing the minimum amount to be left from 24k to 100k fit in with this analysis? Or does analysys fail you when discussing Mrs May? I am left thinking you prefer Abbotts way with figures.TheScreamingEagles said:
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.rkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
Are you sure about your mathemetical abilities?
You know it was a crap idea, because of the u-turn.
As Sir David Butler pointed out, when was the last time a party u-turned on their manifesto during a campaign.
As I pointed several times last week, I was quite supportive of principles behind the social care changes, they needed some refinement.
Anyway... its getting late.
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It's very rare for polls to be published on Friday or Sunday nights...RobD said:TheScreamingEagles said:
See the edit.RobD said:
Deep breaths Rob, deep breaths....TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Sunday.
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in! And these are all expected Saturday night?0 -
Leads of 8 and 9 aren't that out of line with one of 5, albeit the Lab figure is very high.david_herdson said:Just seen the YouGov. Doesn't tally at all with canvassing tonight. Pre-Manchester, the social care proposals genuinely were an issue; today, I didn't get anything of the sort.
At the very least, we should exercise considerable scepticism about a poll which at the moment is well out of line with the rest of the industry.0 -
I know there are some Star Trek fans on here, so I'll just leave this here in case it all goes pear-shaped, the Tories snatch a devastating defeat from the jaws of certain victory... and Theresa May becomes Gul Dukat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP0brMrR_QE0 -
We live in unusual times, ThreeQuidder (Labour on 38%, for example).ThreeQuidder said:
It's very rare for polls to be published on Friday or Sunday nights...RobD said:TheScreamingEagles said:
See the edit.RobD said:
Deep breaths Rob, deep breaths....TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Sunday.
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in! And these are all expected Saturday night?
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The Corbasm may have more staying power. Diane Abbott would be able to give us a definitive answer (though she might get the numbers wrong by an order of magnitude or two).OblitusSumMe said:
That suggests these poll movements are analogous to the Cleggasm - young people telling pollsters they will vote for the trendy new thing, but not actually bothering to turn up to the polling station.Quincel said:
It isn't one poll, though. There's been a rash of polls showing a sharp tightening of the race.Sandpit said:LOL at the hysterical over-reaction to one poll.
Con Majority is now out to 1.15 on Betfair though, so worth a top up, and tomorrow we have the joy of Corbyn's speech blaming Britain for terrorism followed by him sitting down with Andrew Neil - someone who's seen everything before and isn't going to pull any punches.
Night all!
What doesn't make any sense to me is Copeland and the locals. The Tories got magnificent results, don't tell me that was from voters who weren't paying attention yet. And the boost for Labour in the current polling is from young and non-voters - not old voters defecting due to #DementiaTax.
Why have these voters suddenly woken up when they didn't mere weeks ago?0 -
Wakefield or Hemsworth if I may ask ?david_herdson said:Just seen the YouGov. Doesn't tally at all with canvassing tonight. Pre-Manchester, the social care proposals genuinely were an issue; today, I didn't get anything of the sort.
At the very least, we should exercise considerable scepticism about a poll which at the moment is well out of line with the rest of the industry.
As a minor anecdote nobody where I work has mentioned social care.0 -
I would, but not very much. Although Labour are committed to Leaving, so it'd be weird for that to be the motivator.ab195 said:
63%? Starting to a pattern in these polls. Hmmmm.nunu said:
Of course this might be the election in which they vote, and the observation earlier that the Labour movement in TNS comes from those who didn't vote in the Referendum might be a leading indicator in the opposite direction than what you might think: "those older bastards did me over Brexit, I'm voting this time". But I wouldn't bet on it (literally).0 -
Two will show 5% Con Leads (maybe even lower) the rest between 5-10%.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Saturday (and maybe as many as six)
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in!
Gradually the gap will start to widen next week.
I'm not sure people have really focused on the general election at all yet (seems mad to say just two weeks from polling day)
I think the final week or so will see a strong swing back to the Tories...0 -
You mean Weyoun?blueblue said:I know there are some Star Trek fans on here, so I'll just leave this here in case it all goes pear-shaped, the Tories snatch a devastating defeat from the jaws of certain victory... and Theresa May becomes Gul Dukat.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP0brMrR_QE
"Time to start packing!" 0 -
Speaking as a proud 25-49 year old, I'd much rather have sensible rents and stable house prices @ 3x earnings. Screw our generation's inheritances, based on luck of the genes.blueblue said:
25-49 year olds ... many of whose only chance to own a house will be to inherit it from their elderly parents. A chance May (in perception at least) just torpedoed. We're doomed.Danny565 said:Tories ahead with men 45% to 32%.
Labour ahead with women 43% to 40%.
Labour have a stonking lead with 18-24-year-olds, but also a healthy 17-point lead with 25-49-year-olds (a HUGE swing with that age bracket since the start of the election). The Tories are still pretty much as strong as ever with the 65+ age bracket, a 48-point lead.0 -
This election seems close enough to be worth giving it a nudge. I wonder what Fancy Bear has got on May.0
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I do wonder what Corbyn's survival-level result is. Both in terms of preventing the PLP moving against him, and in retaining support among the grass-roots. Beating EdM's vote share may be enough for the latter, not the former. Beating EdM on seats likewise. I think he'd at least have to reduce the size of the Tory majority to stand any chance of preventing a challenge from the PLP, and possibly do more than that.kle4 said:
I don't row back, I just admit to being a fool with a spine like a jacob's cream cracker when it comes to the strength of my convictions.SouthamObserver said:
Total blind panic!! It's hilarious. There'll be much rowing back when the results are announced.The_Apocalypse said:
This site is absolute comedy tonight.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's worse than Gordon Brown, at least he wasn't stupid enough to actually call an early election.Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, Mrs. May: What have you done?
I'm loving it!
I truly have tried not to over estimate Labour this time, like I always do, but it is proving very hard when they are regularly polling in the mid 30s, making beating Ed M in vote share at least looking a given at this stage.0 -
It's a great line, but no, I mean Dukat - watch to the end!RobD said:
You mean Weyoun?blueblue said:I know there are some Star Trek fans on here, so I'll just leave this here in case it all goes pear-shaped, the Tories snatch a devastating defeat from the jaws of certain victory... and Theresa May becomes Gul Dukat.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP0brMrR_QE
"Time to start packing!"0 -
Ah, trusty swing back.GIN1138 said:
Two will show 5% Con Leads (maybe even lower) the rest between 5-10%.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Saturday (and maybe as many as six)
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in!
Gradually the gap will start to widen next week.
I'm not sure people have really focused on the general election at all yet (seems mad to say just two weeks from polling day)
I think the final week or so will see a strong swing back to the Tories... 0 -
My grandfather was Gort's personal driver during the Battle of France.Theuniondivvie said:
Manstein, Gamelin or Gort?Sunil_Prasannan said:
France, 1940TheWhiteRabbit said:If you want a laugh, imagine SeanT as a military man, perhaps Command-in-Chief.
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It is an absolutely dreadful poll for us but we had this in 1983, 1987 and 1992. Labour have not got 38% since 2001 and won't get it thus time. The maximum they will get is 33%.
As a poster said earlier on this thread I projected previously a maj of 50. I think now it will be around maj 20 because of an incompetent campaign but we will still win
See you tomorrow!0 -
Worse still, she tried to pretend that it WASN'T a u-turn which everyone knew most assuredly that it was. She should count herself very fortunate that Brillo didn't ask her why it was that the English & Welsh faced this financial penalty whilst the Scots don't pay a penny piece towards their social care.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's all about PERCEPTIONS.TMA1 said:
You have a funny way of showing it. You mention inheritance tax. Is it not labour who propose to raise IHT. Their Manifesto clearly shows that they would lower IHT threshold - ie collect more money of yoy when you are safely dead. And they make no suggestion that they make any allowance for inflation. But you seek to tar Mrs May with this brush wheras she and the Tories actually plan to inclrease the threshold so a couples allowance would be £1 million.TheScreamingEagles said:
Then your thinking is deficient.TMA1 said:
So where does increasing the minimum amount to be left from 24k to 100k fit in with this analysis? Or does analysys fail you when discussing Mrs May? I am left thinking you prefer Abbotts way with figures.TheScreamingEagles said:
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.rkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
Are you sure about your mathemetical abilities?
You know it was a crap idea, because of the u-turn.
As Sir David Butler pointed out, when was the last time a party u-turned on their manifesto during a campaign.
As I pointed several times last week, I was quite supportive of principles behind the social care changes, they needed some refinement.0 -
Hah, yeah!blueblue said:
It's a great line, but no, I mean Dukat - watch to the end!RobD said:
You mean Weyoun?blueblue said:I know there are some Star Trek fans on here, so I'll just leave this here in case it all goes pear-shaped, the Tories snatch a devastating defeat from the jaws of certain victory... and Theresa May becomes Gul Dukat.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP0brMrR_QE
"Time to start packing!"0 -
Credit where it is due.This bomber was shopped by friends and by mosque.isam said:
It was not them who turned a blind eye.0 -
-
He was being confronted with the possibility of Lab close to 150 a month ago. If they get over 200 he's safe as houses if he wants, he would legitimately say he might have done even better if he didn't have people like Woodcock coming out at the start saying he was terrible.MyBurningEars said:
I do wonder what Corbyn's survival-level result is. Both in terms of preventing the PLP moving against him, and in retaining support among the grass-roots. Beating EdM's vote share may be enough for the latter, not the former. Beating EdM on seats likewise. I think he'd at least have to reduce the size of the Tory majority to stand any chance of preventing a challenge from the PLP, and possibly do more than that.kle4 said:
I don't row back, I just admit to being a fool with a spine like a jacob's cream cracker when it comes to the strength of my convictions.SouthamObserver said:
Total blind panic!! It's hilarious. There'll be much rowing back when the results are announced.The_Apocalypse said:
This site is absolute comedy tonight.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's worse than Gordon Brown, at least he wasn't stupid enough to actually call an early election.Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, Mrs. May: What have you done?
I'm loving it!
I truly have tried not to over estimate Labour this time, like I always do, but it is proving very hard when they are regularly polling in the mid 30s, making beating Ed M in vote share at least looking a given at this stage.0 -
Well maybe just enough to hedge.....kle4 said:
I would, but not very much. Although Labour are committed to Leaving, so it'd be weird for that to be the motivator.ab195 said:
63%? Starting to a pattern in these polls. Hmmmm.nunu said:
Of course this might be the election in which they vote, and the observation earlier that the Labour movement in TNS comes from those who didn't vote in the Referendum might be a leading indicator in the opposite direction than what you might think: "those older bastards did me over Brexit, I'm voting this time". But I wouldn't bet on it (literally).
We know they are committed to leaving but does the average student? Or might they be projecting things they want but he isn't promising onto him, having seen stuff like the student loans promise? Either way if more of them voted Nick Clegg would have had 90 seats in 2010. And he didn't.
It'd be hilarious if Labour won but the PLP asked the Queen to send for Benn or Cooper.0 -
IIRC Stodge suggested that people wouldn't pay proper attention to the election until after the bank holiday.GIN1138 said:
Two will show 5% Con Leads (maybe even lower) the rest between 5-10%.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Saturday (and maybe as many as six)
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in!
Gradually the gap will start to widen next week.
I'm not sure people have really focused on the general election at all yet (seems mad to say just two weeks from polling day)
I think the final week or so will see a strong swing back to the Tories...0 -
It was a pretty blatant one at that, a shame if that was what it finally took to get young people to vote.another_richard said:0 -
How is that consistent with the change in the opinion polls since the start?another_richard said:
IIRC Stodge suggested that people wouldn't pay proper attention to the election until after the bank holiday.GIN1138 said:
Two will show 5% Con Leads (maybe even lower) the rest between 5-10%.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Saturday (and maybe as many as six)
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in!
Gradually the gap will start to widen next week.
I'm not sure people have really focused on the general election at all yet (seems mad to say just two weeks from polling day)
I think the final week or so will see a strong swing back to the Tories...0 -
0
-
Nah, that award goes to the triple lock.another_richard said:0 -
Their parents can downsize and transfer some of the money from the sale to help their children get a house, plus May has at least introduced a cap now on care costsblueblue said:
25-49 year olds ... many of whose only chance to own a house will be to inherit it from their elderly parents. A chance May (in perception at least) just torpedoed. We're doomed.Danny565 said:Tories ahead with men 45% to 32%.
Labour ahead with women 43% to 40%.
Labour have a stonking lead with 18-24-year-olds, but also a healthy 17-point lead with 25-49-year-olds (a HUGE swing with that age bracket since the start of the election). The Tories are still pretty much as strong as ever with the 65+ age bracket, a 48-point lead.0 -
They deserve the red card.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Watching Theresa May's election campaign, it is awfully like watching the England cricket team in the 90s, those collapses. Like when England collapsed from 147/4 to 150 a/o, thanks largely due to a gritty single from Devon Malcolm0
-
I think I might have mentioned this the other day, but he has a decent chance of beating Blair '05 for vote share, and certain Brown '10. If he can say he did better than Blair, I can't see the membership kicking him out...kle4 said:
He was being confronted with the possibility of Lab close to 150 a month ago. If they get over 200 he's safe as houses if he wants, he would legitimately say he might have done even better if he didn't have people like Woodcock coming out at the start saying he was terrible.MyBurningEars said:
I do wonder what Corbyn's survival-level result is. Both in terms of preventing the PLP moving against him, and in retaining support among the grass-roots. Beating EdM's vote share may be enough for the latter, not the former. Beating EdM on seats likewise. I think he'd at least have to reduce the size of the Tory majority to stand any chance of preventing a challenge from the PLP, and possibly do more than that.kle4 said:
I don't row back, I just admit to being a fool with a spine like a jacob's cream cracker when it comes to the strength of my convictions.SouthamObserver said:
Total blind panic!! It's hilarious. There'll be much rowing back when the results are announced.The_Apocalypse said:
This site is absolute comedy tonight.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's worse than Gordon Brown, at least he wasn't stupid enough to actually call an early election.Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, Mrs. May: What have you done?
I'm loving it!
I truly have tried not to over estimate Labour this time, like I always do, but it is proving very hard when they are regularly polling in the mid 30s, making beating Ed M in vote share at least looking a given at this stage.0 -
So successful a bribe it's now the policy of everyone except the Tories, IIRC.Pong said:
Nah, that award goes to the triple lock.another_richard said:0 -
RobD said:
Hah, yeah!blueblue said:
It's a great line, but no, I mean Dukat - watch to the end!RobD said:
You mean Weyoun?blueblue said:I know there are some Star Trek fans on here, so I'll just leave this here in case it all goes pear-shaped, the Tories snatch a devastating defeat from the jaws of certain victory... and Theresa May becomes Gul Dukat.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP0brMrR_QE
"Time to start packing!"
Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott - the Pah-Wraiths.RobD said:
Hah, yeah!blueblue said:
It's a great line, but no, I mean Dukat - watch to the end!RobD said:
You mean Weyoun?blueblue said:I know there are some Star Trek fans on here, so I'll just leave this here in case it all goes pear-shaped, the Tories snatch a devastating defeat from the jaws of certain victory... and Theresa May becomes Gul Dukat.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP0brMrR_QE
"Time to start packing!"0 -
Wakefield. An ex-council estate in Horbury to be precise.another_richard said:
Wakefield or Hemsworth if I may ask ?david_herdson said:Just seen the YouGov. Doesn't tally at all with canvassing tonight. Pre-Manchester, the social care proposals genuinely were an issue; today, I didn't get anything of the sort.
At the very least, we should exercise considerable scepticism about a poll which at the moment is well out of line with the rest of the industry.
As a minor anecdote nobody where I work has mentioned social care.0 -
I'll let Stodge answer thatRobD said:
How is that consistent with the change in the opinion polls since the start?another_richard said:
IIRC Stodge suggested that people wouldn't pay proper attention to the election until after the bank holiday.GIN1138 said:
Two will show 5% Con Leads (maybe even lower) the rest between 5-10%.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting at least four polls on Saturday (and maybe as many as six)
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in!
Gradually the gap will start to widen next week.
I'm not sure people have really focused on the general election at all yet (seems mad to say just two weeks from polling day)
I think the final week or so will see a strong swing back to the Tories...
0 -
Is Boris going to come in like Goughy, hit two morale raising sixes then give an easy catch?TheScreamingEagles said:Watching Theresa May's election campaign, it is awfully like watching the England cricket team in the 90s, those collapses. Like when England collapsed from 147/4 to 150 a/o, thanks largely due to a gritty single from Devon Malcolm
0 -
Do we actually know that?foxinsoxuk said:
Credit where it is due.This bomber was shopped by friends and by mosque.isam said:
It was not them who turned a blind eye.
I think the phrase 'a blind eye' is a bit offensive, actually. Anyone who has to make a medical diagnosis should know how difficult this.
Medical tests do not diagnose with 100 per cent efficiency. If there is a false negative is that called 'turning a blind eye'.0 -
Stop talking about Star Trek, I want to go to bed.0
-
What better time to watch a few more episodes...TheScreamingEagles said:Stop talking about Star Trek, I want to go to bed.
0 -
I like the idea of Theresa May being the Prim Minister.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
There are all sorts of iffy numbers in the subsamples. Now, it might be that they're right. It might be that the imbalances cancel each other out. But Labour at 30% across the South of England outside London? Seems extremely high.kle4 said:
Leads of 8 and 9 aren't that out of line with one of 5, albeit the Lab figure is very high.david_herdson said:Just seen the YouGov. Doesn't tally at all with canvassing tonight. Pre-Manchester, the social care proposals genuinely were an issue; today, I didn't get anything of the sort.
At the very least, we should exercise considerable scepticism about a poll which at the moment is well out of line with the rest of the industry.0 -
Brexit sold change, Remain sold more of the same.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
Trump sold change, Clinton sold more of the same.
Corbyn sells change, May sells more of the same.
Sometimes some people get sick of bran flakes and buy coco pops for a change.
0 -
The longest 'snap' election of all time.....0
-
Jezza does have an appeal Brown and Ed lackedleomckinstry said:
Very good point. I have been thinking that all week. Plus public sector workers, all of whom have been promised big pay rises. Look at the adulatory reception for Corbyn a fortnight ago when he addressed the Headteachers' Conference.blueblue said:Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?
If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.
He is radical appears to be genuine and not awkward
He will pile up votes in Lab areas
Will not appeal as much elsewhere and
TMICIPM with a comfortable majority.0 -
TLPs have a long term cost to the country.Pong said:
Nah, that award goes to the triple lock.another_richard said:
Corbyn's offering an immediate effect to people who have little.0 -
If I were May I would hold a rally in the north on Monday and announce an absolute travel ban on all travel to and from Libya and Syria until those nations are returned to stability and freed from ISIS, exceptions only for the media and aid agenciesnunu said:0 -
Absolutely. I gave a golf analogy the other night - using a driver to smash the ball into a lake when all she face to win was a short putt - but the cricket parallel is just as good. She refused to force the follow on, thinking a huge victory was certain, and is now 35 for 8 in her second innings, just 255 ahead .TheScreamingEagles said:Watching Theresa May's election campaign, it is awfully like watching the England cricket team in the 90s, those collapses. Like when England collapsed from 147/4 to 150 a/o, thanks largely due to a gritty single from Devon Malcolm
0 -
Nick Timothy is such a punchable name.0
-
That does seem to be a reasonable hypothesis.bigjohnowls said:
Jezza does have an appeal Brown and Ed lackedleomckinstry said:
Very good point. I have been thinking that all week. Plus public sector workers, all of whom have been promised big pay rises. Look at the adulatory reception for Corbyn a fortnight ago when he addressed the Headteachers' Conference.blueblue said:Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?
If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.
He is radical appears to be genuine and not awkward
He will pile up votes in Lab areas
Will not appeal as much elsewhere and
TMICIPM with a comfortable majority.0 -
On the basis of one subsample? Not to mention that would be a hugely controversial move which would alienate far more voters than it attracts. It'd be social care x100.HYUFD said:
If I were May I would hold a rally in the north on Monday and announce an absolute travel ban on all travel to and from Libya and Syria until those nations are returned to stability and freed from ISIS, exceptions only for the media and aid agenciesnunu said:0 -
5 times was he notified to the security services, including by friends and mosque:YBarddCwsc said:
Do we actually know that?foxinsoxuk said:
Credit where it is due.This bomber was shopped by friends and by mosque.isam said:
It was not them who turned a blind eye.
I think the phrase 'a blind eye' is a bit offensive, actually. Anyone who has to make a medical diagnosis should know how difficult this.
Medical tests do not diagnose with 100 per cent efficiency. If there is a false negative is that called 'turning a blind eye'.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/24/security-services-missed-five-opportunities-stop-manchester/
If he was not picked up, it was not because of lack of action by the community.0 -
The Manchester suicide bomber was repeatedly flagged to the authorities over his extremist views, but was not stopped by officers, it emerged Wednesday night.YBarddCwsc said:
Do we actually know that?foxinsoxuk said:
Credit where it is due.This bomber was shopped by friends and by mosque.isam said:
It was not them who turned a blind eye.
I think the phrase 'a blind eye' is a bit offensive, actually. Anyone who has to make a medical diagnosis should know how difficult this.
Medical tests do not diagnose with 100 per cent efficiency. If there is a false negative is that called 'turning a blind eye'.
Counter Terrorism agencies were facing questions after it emerged Salman Abedi told friends that “being a suicide bomber was okay”, prompting them to call the Government’s anti-terrorism hotline.
Sources suggest that authorities were informed of the danger posed by Abedi on at least five separate occasions in the five years prior to the attack on Monday night. .....
.....The missed opportunities to catch Abedi were beginning to mount up last night. The Telegraph has spoken to a community leader who said that Abedi was reported two years ago “because he thought he was involved in extremism and terrorism”.
Mohammed Shafiq, chief executive of the Ramadhan Foundation, said: “People in the community expressed concerns about the way this man was behaving and reported it in the right way using the right channels.
“They did not hear anything since.”
Two friends of Abedi also became so worried they separately telephoned the police counter-terrorism hotline five years ago and again last year.
“They had been worried that ‘he was supporting terrorism’ and had expressed the view that ‘being a suicide bomber was ok’,” a source told the BBC.
Akram Ramadan, 49, part of the close-knit Libyan community in south Manchester, said Abedi had been banned from Didsbury Mosque after he had confronted the Imam who was delivering an anti-extremist sermon.
Mr Ramadan said he understood that Abedi had been placed on a “watch list” because the mosque reported him to the authorities for his extremist views.
A well-placed source at Didsbury Mosque confirmed it had contacted the Home Office’s Prevent anti-radicalisation programme as a result.
A US official also briefed that members of Abedi’s own family had contacted British police saying that he was “dangerous”, but again the information does not appear to have been acted upon.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/24/security-services-missed-five-opportunities-stop-manchester/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
Nah, Boris = Beefy Botham!ab195 said:
Is Boris going to come in like Goughy, hit two morale raising sixes then give an easy catch?TheScreamingEagles said:Watching Theresa May's election campaign, it is awfully like watching the England cricket team in the 90s, those collapses. Like when England collapsed from 147/4 to 150 a/o, thanks largely due to a gritty single from Devon Malcolm
0 -
Independent hold in Shoeburyness
Ind 886
Con 830
Lab 381
UKIP 121
LDem 119
Green 480 -
another_richard said:
That does seem to be a reasonable hypothesis.bigjohnowls said:
Jezza does have an appeal Brown and Ed lackedleomckinstry said:
Very good point. I have been thinking that all week. Plus public sector workers, all of whom have been promised big pay rises. Look at the adulatory reception for Corbyn a fortnight ago when he addressed the Headteachers' Conference.blueblue said:Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?
If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.
He is radical appears to be genuine and not awkward
He will pile up votes in Lab areas
Will not appeal as much elsewhere and
TMICIPM with a comfortable majority.
An interesting question, for those familiar with the inner workings of the Tory party, is whether she will be able to stick with using just her two advisers after the election? Is Timothy now untenable? One would think that a certain number of representations from senior MPs would have to weigh heavily on her mind.another_richard said:
That does seem to be a reasonable hypothesis.bigjohnowls said:
Jezza does have an appeal Brown and Ed lackedleomckinstry said:
Very good point. I have been thinking that all week. Plus public sector workers, all of whom have been promised big pay rises. Look at the adulatory reception for Corbyn a fortnight ago when he addressed the Headteachers' Conference.blueblue said:Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?
If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.
He is radical appears to be genuine and not awkward
He will pile up votes in Lab areas
Will not appeal as much elsewhere and
TMICIPM with a comfortable majority.0 -
So it was Mays fault until 2016 and Amber Rudds since then I guess?TheScreamingEagles said:
The Manchester suicide bomber was repeatedly flagged to the authorities over his extremist views, but was not stopped by officers, it emerged Wednesday night.YBarddCwsc said:
Do we actually know that?foxinsoxuk said:
Credit where it is due.This bomber was shopped by friends and by mosque.isam said:
It was not them who turned a blind eye.
I think the phrase 'a blind eye' is a bit offensive, actually. Anyone who has to make a medical diagnosis should know how difficult this.
Medical tests do not diagnose with 100 per cent efficiency. If there is a false negative is that called 'turning a blind eye'.
Counter Terrorism agencies were facing questions after it emerged Salman Abedi told friends that “being a suicide bomber was okay”, prompting them to call the Government’s anti-terrorism hotline.
Sources suggest that authorities were informed of the danger posed by Abedi on at least five separate occasions in the five years prior to the attack on Monday night. .....
.....The missed opportunities to catch Abedi were beginning to mount up last night. The Telegraph has spoken to a community leader who said that Abedi was reported two years ago “because he thought he was involved in extremism and terrorism”.
Mohammed Shafiq, chief executive of the Ramadhan Foundation, said: “People in the community expressed concerns about the way this man was behaving and reported it in the right way using the right channels.
“They did not hear anything since.”
Two friends of Abedi also became so worried they separately telephoned the police counter-terrorism hotline five years ago and again last year.
“They had been worried that ‘he was supporting terrorism’ and had expressed the view that ‘being a suicide bomber was ok’,” a source told the BBC.
Akram Ramadan, 49, part of the close-knit Libyan community in south Manchester, said Abedi had been banned from Didsbury Mosque after he had confronted the Imam who was delivering an anti-extremist sermon.
Mr Ramadan said he understood that Abedi had been placed on a “watch list” because the mosque reported him to the authorities for his extremist views.
A well-placed source at Didsbury Mosque confirmed it had contacted the Home Office’s Prevent anti-radicalisation programme as a result.
A US official also briefed that members of Abedi’s own family had contacted British police saying that he was “dangerous”, but again the information does not appear to have been acted upon.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/24/security-services-missed-five-opportunities-stop-manchester/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
I am aware that there are press reports, and statements of people who know people who reported him.foxinsoxuk said:
5 times was he notified to the security services, including by friends and mosque:YBarddCwsc said:
Do we actually know that?foxinsoxuk said:
Credit where it is due.This bomber was shopped by friends and by mosque.isam said:
It was not them who turned a blind eye.
I think the phrase 'a blind eye' is a bit offensive, actually. Anyone who has to make a medical diagnosis should know how difficult this.
Medical tests do not diagnose with 100 per cent efficiency. If there is a false negative is that called 'turning a blind eye'.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/24/security-services-missed-five-opportunities-stop-manchester/
If he was not picked up, it was not because of lack of action by the community.
I am asking whether that has been confirmed by the police & security services.
0 -
Off topic, an interesting remembrance ceremony by Leicester schoolchildren to remember the dead of the Indian Labour Corps in WW1:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-400451220 -
Thanks.david_herdson said:
Wakefield. An ex-council estate in Horbury to be precise.another_richard said:
Wakefield or Hemsworth if I may ask ?david_herdson said:Just seen the YouGov. Doesn't tally at all with canvassing tonight. Pre-Manchester, the social care proposals genuinely were an issue; today, I didn't get anything of the sort.
At the very least, we should exercise considerable scepticism about a poll which at the moment is well out of line with the rest of the industry.
As a minor anecdote nobody where I work has mentioned social care.
0 -
He's clearly a liability, and he's embroiled in the Thanet South stuff. Hopefully he'll go, and May will involve the wider cabinet in the decision making process.ab195 said:another_richard said:
That does seem to be a reasonable hypothesis.bigjohnowls said:
Jezza does have an appeal Brown and Ed lackedleomckinstry said:
Very good point. I have been thinking that all week. Plus public sector workers, all of whom have been promised big pay rises. Look at the adulatory reception for Corbyn a fortnight ago when he addressed the Headteachers' Conference.blueblue said:Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?
If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.
He is radical appears to be genuine and not awkward
He will pile up votes in Lab areas
Will not appeal as much elsewhere and
TMICIPM with a comfortable majority.
An interesting question, for those familiar with the inner workings of the Tory party, is whether she will be able to stick with using just her two advisers after the election? Is Timothy now untenable? One would think that a certain number of representations from senior MPs would have to weigh heavily on her mind.another_richard said:
That does seem to be a reasonable hypothesis.bigjohnowls said:
Jezza does have an appeal Brown and Ed lackedleomckinstry said:
Very good point. I have been thinking that all week. Plus public sector workers, all of whom have been promised big pay rises. Look at the adulatory reception for Corbyn a fortnight ago when he addressed the Headteachers' Conference.blueblue said:Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?
If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.
He is radical appears to be genuine and not awkward
He will pile up votes in Lab areas
Will not appeal as much elsewhere and
TMICIPM with a comfortable majority.0
