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CON lead down to 5% with @YouGov pic.twitter.com/udkAz2lgyv
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Corbynism has defeated me, I cannot predict or explain its extent of appeal.
Unless the polls shift away again to regularly back into the low tens at least, I'm changing my prediction to Labour 195-215. It's been said they would do that for weeks. Either it is not working or it is too late. The details are clear - people give May much higher scores than Corbyn, so she might well outperform the headline VI figure, but it won't be a wipeout for Labour even if she does, unless it is by almost doubling it.
Any attempt by the Tories to bring out the security stuff now will look desperate and a distraction technique, they waited too long.
My there are some wobbly jawed PBTories tonight.
Anyone who has worked the doorsteps in the last few elections can see how well Mrs May is going.
Outcome - Tory majority of 10-30.
( And I say all this as a variously Liberal Democat / Green / Labour voter ).
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/867848549127553024/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4967/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-tonight-s-one-local-by-election/p1
The Tory party is greater than Mayfair he shies and low tax libertarians...
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
So, let's see.
- We are told that General Election campaigns don't usually change things, that people have made their mind up way before
- In the last election, we were told that the best PM score was a more reliable metric than the raw party political stuff. May leads by a country mile.
- There is plenty of anecdotal data to show that JC is toxic with the WWC
- The Labour Uncut piece stated that, in places like the NE, canvassers were reporting that 1 in 3 2015 Labour voters were deserting the party. This from the same guy who stated a week before the 2015 GE that Labour was in trouble based on what could be gleaned from the early postal votes.
- Older people tend to vote and they remember the IRA etc etc.
Against that, we have the polls. If your Momentum people have decided that influencing the betting odds can change the narrative, then they were surely have worked out that getting yourself up with a polling company (which, let's be honest, they are desperate to have people sign up for them) also makes sense. I would bet money (and I have) that this is what is happening here.
You know what has been the number one topic I have found has come up time and time again post-Manchester? Immigration. As in "we let these people in, it is unbelievable", swiftly followed by "And Corbyn (and the Lib Dems) want to let in more!"
If anyone wants to have a bet it will be a Hung Parliament, please, please, please get in touch.....
I was considering voting Tory, as at least they were offering some realism, but given they'll win the seat anyway, I don't see that they deserve the small boost in vote percentage even my solitary vote would cause, with their complacent, arrogant campaigning which is ensuring Corbyn will remain as Labour leader.
Le Partie, C'est Moi!
(that said the Tory manifesto was shambolic - they deserve a knock)
And Smithson's predictable selection of polls for thread headers or not.
If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.
More generally, after the bombing it could take a while for the polls to settle, and/or for the polls to align with true voting intentions.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
Will YouGov 5% Con Lead in 2017 be remembered like the ICM 5% Lab lead in 1997?
A Labour rise like this cannot solely be down to social care crap, it really does seem that all that bitching in the press was holding them back and Corbyn was right all along, even if probably not by enough to actually win.
What a waste of an election.
once again;
Corbyn = Attlee ??!!
Lots of parallels.
Who are these doorstep people who say they won't vote labour under corbyn, and why are they living in a different world from whoever the pollsters contact?
More to the point what has appened to the LD share?
What would you see as an impressive result for Corbyn (I know you don't like him - but what do you think he should be pleased with?)
Seriously Max, get out of your hedgie bubble, talk to voters in Lab/Con marginals. You will sleep an awful lot better.
It shows.
Precisely why did Mrs May call this unnecessary election?
Now that lead is circa 15%.
She's lost 35% in a month.
It is a bit like all the hype that "Games of Thrones" gets with everyone in the media talking about it like the most important programme on TV. And then you find out it has fewer viewers than Hollyoaks....
But nothing to worry about, this is an outlier. You guys will win, maybe even win big.
Jeremy Corbyn is still crap!