Con Majority is now out to 1.15 on Betfair though, so worth a top up, and tomorrow we have the joy of Corbyn's speech blaming Britain for terrorism followed by him sitting down with Andrew Neil - someone who's seen everything before and isn't going to pull any punches.
Night all!
It isn't one poll, though. There's been a rash of polls showing a sharp tightening of the race.
What doesn't make any sense to me is Copeland and the locals. The Tories got magnificent results, don't tell me that was from voters who weren't paying attention yet. And the boost for Labour in the current polling is from young and non-voters - not old voters defecting due to #DementiaTax.
Why have these voters suddenly woken up when they didn't mere weeks ago?
Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labour
I would be very interested in seeing some polling evidence of whether tactical voting is returning. That could be the difference between 150 seat majority and a 25 seat one.
Tactical voting in whose favour?
2 party voting seems to be returning, both parties are dramatically up leaving fewer third party votes to squeeze tactically.
In 1997, the LibDems dropped 1% from their 1992 total to 16.8%. Yet they increased their seat count by almost 150%. Why? Tactical voting.
Last year in Scotland, the LibDems lost share in the constituency portion of the Holyrood vote, yet doubled their number of seats, and came close in Caithness, Sutherland & Ross, and managed an impressive 15% bump in Argyll & Bute. Why? Tactical voting.
If Labour voters in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Bath, Lewes, etc., choose to vote tactically for the LibDems - which they backed away from in 2015 - then those seats could be lost, even with the LDs on just 10%.
Is that you being sarcastic Mr Nabavi or are you really worried ?
Worried? Not exactly, I have enough faith in British voters to think that there's not a snowflake's chance in hell that nearly 4 out of 10 of them seriously want Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott running the country.
But it does seem very likely that Theresa May has made a rookie error with the presentation of the social care changes - not her first rookie error, of course, but this one is serious. I think we can wave goodbye to the idea of a landslide, so I've just sold on the spreads at 384.
Just wondering what impact the Manchester tragedy might be having and the extent to which this might continue through until 8 June.
May, ex-Home Secretary and current PM, has tried to dodge responsibility and outrageously has tried to smear her opponent Corbyn as a security risk. The British public is expressing its disgust.
I see the others are down two to 6% - does that mean the SNP are doing badly in this poll?
Considering that they accounted for almost 5% of the total vote last time it along with the Greens on almost 4% plus 1% for PC + others it shows either the SNP or the Greens are polling very poorly and the Green lack of candidates will see their share fall off quite a bit anyway. It might be that Labour are getting back a few voters from the SNP as well as the Greens in Scotland (Corbyn is not viewed so negatively by the Scottish public as down south) which could make a couple more seats interesting in Scotland outside the challenges of the LDs and Tories to the Nats.
Indeed I have been poking about in seats where SNP are in a 2 horse race with SLAB, and where Corbynism may well be popular. Parts of Glasgow for example. There were massive SNP surges before in 2015, but are they fading?
I actually think that if Labour had stood one or 2 more prominent people for say Paisley and Renfrew S. (Mhairi Black's seat) they might of had a good chance in the West but I think that while they are likely to reduce some majorities into the 4-6K range, I don't see to much success in terms of gains. (10k+ is a tough ask to overturn) They are more likely to see improvement and possible gains in and around Edinburgh in places like East Lothian, Midlothian and Edinburgh N although the lack of a Green candidate in the last one will make the SNP that bit safer this time around. It is, as Alistair has stated before, going to come down to how many SNP supporters turnout this time considering that we had a higher than the rest of the country 71% turnout overall last time - mainly down to the Nationalist surge. I get the impression that they are not nearly as enthused as in 2015. If they really struggle to get the voters to the polls, and Glaswegians are notoriously poor when it comes to voting, then there could be an upset in 2 weeks time.
Just wondering what impact the Manchester tragedy might be having and the extent to which this might continue through until 8 June.
May, ex-Home Secretary and current PM, has tried to dodge responsibility and outrageously has tried to smear her opponent Corbyn as a security risk. The British public is expressing its disgust.
Maybe, but the Tories did better in the 24-25 May fieldwork than 22 May polling.
Just wondering what impact the Manchester tragedy might be having and the extent to which this might continue through until 8 June.
May, ex-Home Secretary and current PM, has tried to dodge responsibility and outrageously has tried to smear her opponent Corbyn as a security risk. The British public is expressing its disgust.
I find myself finally in the position of being angry at basically every single party, truly angry.
Labour for choosing Corbyn and likely voting in their millions for him to be PM and Abbott Home Secretary, too many it would seem to get rid of him. Tories for running such a poor campaign Corbyn will remain in place and they'll have wasted months that could have been spent on Brexit negotiations for nothing LDs for failing to take advantage of either of the above to make any marked improvement UKIP for being generally useless Greens for being generally nonsense SNP for being too successful for my liking
Today I was in Milan, having lunch overlooking the Duomo with senior partners from the a couple of the largest accounting and law firms in Italy. One was from the North, and one from the South.
It's hard, in the UK, to realise just how broken Italy is. Even compared to France, it is a bureaucratic nightmare, with appalling demographics, a f*cked up political system, rampant corruption and a sclerotic labour market. Both men despaired of positive change.
One felt that the only option was for Italy to leave the EU, so it would be forced to take responsibility for its actions. The other saw the EU as the only possible salvation for Italy, forcing it to change all the things that were wrong with the country.
Neither were Bepe Grillo supporters, largely on the basis that Beppe Grillo's current pitch to the Italian people is that there is stagnation due to lack of cheap internet access is (to use my phrase) away with the fairies.
If the EU/Eurozone is to fall apart, Italy will be the catalyst.
But was it the northerner or the southerner who wanted to leave the EU ?
The Southerner. I'm not going to say any more, because otherwise it would be quite easy to identify him.
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
This is all well and good, but wasn't it true 6 months ago too. Poll leads were big then.
Yes, but most people had not seen Corbyn or May then. Only read about the devil and the Mother of the Nation.
Maybe, but in Copeland there was saturation campaigning. Didn't help Labour.
If this is going sour for the Tories I hope it's because on careful reflection enough people were repelled Theresa May's interchangability with UKIP and her bearhug with Brexit.
Also, the canvassing we did earlier wouldn't suggest Manchester will have much impact on votes. Only one person mentioned it at all, and that was actually in quite a negative way towards May: "we had no terrorist attacks in Britain for years, and suddenly she gets in and we have 2 within a few months". Which even I thought was a bit unfair!
If anyone was warming up for a Labour bounce, Jez is going to give a speech tomorrow telling us how the terrorism is all our own fault, innit.
Or say intervening in Iraq and Libya hasn't helped. It is the same point Farage made. He may even throw in a Tory majority might mean troops in Syria. It is hardly groundbreaking.
Wondering what chance a Labour poll lead between now and polling day.
Improbable but no longer impossible. We might have a South Thanet criminal charge to come - if the lead was still in the mid teens, I doubt it would gain traction, but with the Tories on the slide...
why are the polls taken so seriously? They were wrong in 2015. What has changed?
What had changed, before the last week or so, was that people thought the Tory lead in the polls was too big to be an error. So the polls would be indicating the winner of the election even if they weren't very accurate.
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Then you should examine the way you interpret your historical data as it appears to need some revision. Incidentally ICM from April 2016 shows the Tories with a 5 point lead and Ukip still polling mid teens....just saying.
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
Also, the canvassing we did earlier wouldn't suggest Manchester will have much impact on votes.
I can imagine a lot of people very consciously not letting it impact their vote, rejecting the thought of doing so even if the get a bit concerned about their choice.
In which case what arrests the Tory slide and sees them recover? A bad performance by Corbyn against Neill? The man has had a good few weeks and surely knows every bit of dirt Neill might throw at him, and has been receiving attacks for years, there's no guarantee he cocks up.
If this is going sour for the Tories I hope it's because on careful reflection enough people were repelled by her interchangability with UKIP and her bearhug with Brexit.
In reality though I suspect an outlier
I think that is wrong roger,it seems that the tories flirting with social conservatism has done more harm,it seems.
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
May is making NET GAINs from 2015 Labour in tonight's poll, the Corbyn gains are mainly from LD 2015 voters and a few UKIP, it is those few UKIP May needs to target on a socially conservative platform, she has not lost any laissez-faire libertarians to Corbyn
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
Calm down dear.
Come and see how popular she is on the doorstep.
Why is that not showing in the polls anymore when it was before?
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
Calm down dear.
Come and see how popular she is on the doorstep.
Keep telling yourself that, if it helps you sleep at night. I'm beginning to Jez proof my investments.
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
Calm down dear.
Come and see how popular she is on the doorstep.
Why is that not showing in the polls anymore when it was before?
They are canvassing voters, and Corbyn is getting his big surge from non-voters?
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
Calm down dear.
Come and see how popular she is on the doorstep.
Why is that not showing in the polls anymore when it was before?
Read the yougov tables please, she is still well ahead of Corbyn it is just Corbyn is winning over the few remaining leftie Liberals not much to do with May at all
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
Calm down dear.
Come and see how popular she is on the doorstep.
Keep telling yourself that, if it helps you sleep at night. I'm beginning to Jez proof my investments.
The doorstep tells me this poll isn't right - an outlier.
And yet... it has tightened; the Tory campaign has been poor; and they've gambled everything on strong and stable Tezza, but she's been wooden and suffered a needless policy humiliation.
A campaigner she is not. I wonder if Tories regret she didn't have a training bout with Leadsome last year? She's ring rusty to say the least.
Also, the canvassing we did earlier wouldn't suggest Manchester will have much impact on votes. Only one person mentioned it at all, and that was actually in quite a negative way towards May: "we had no terrorist attacks in Britain for years, and suddenly she gets in and we have 2 within a few months". Which even I thought was a bit unfair!
The polling does show voters want a ban on travel to Syria and tougher law and order and internment policies
Many of us are no doubt overreacting, but I do think some are underreacting as well - I dare say that the idea of Corbyn as PM being so apparently ridiculous was in part a factor behind Labour being so far behind at the start, as many assumed he must be so awful it wasn't worth considering, or that the Tory score was boosted by people who made that initial calculation of May vs Corbyn. But now people seem to have reassessed a bit, and if things look close, maybe some will be 'Maybe Labour aren't so crazy now after all - they're doing even better than 2015, or 2010, it must be ok to vote for them again'.
I have a poor punditry crystal ball...and it says...that if the Tories win well...history will say they'd have lost but for Manchester...a Falklands Effect they'll say...
But YouGov has a panel of 800,000 people in the UK, and that has been developed over many years. You would need a huge number of people to take part in this secret infiltration operation, and it would take a long time. And what would it achieve, given that the discrepancy with phone polls would be obvious? And that only a tiny part of the electorate obsess over opinion polls anyway?
Not sure what happened to my previous answer but here goes again...
800,000 sounds impressive but the actual number of respondents will be very low and has been trending lower over time because people are less inclined to do surveys etc. The polling companies have to get a certain number of people to respond to make the poll "credible" so they will poll until they do. As I said before, standards in the industry have been cut because margins are under pressure as ad hoc research is seen as less valuable. Thus, it is likely that the polling companies are becoming reliant on a smaller number of active respondents.
The key is what I said about they need to get the numbers up to make a survey credible. For all the talk about random samples and high standards etc, if you are under time pressure and your response rate is dropping, you start relying on a smaller number of respondents, which makes it easier to influence.
First time poster, long time lurker! Seems to me (and most of you as well) that Cons simply cannot gain a narrative, and Corbyn continues to ride the crest of the wave. 'Dementia tax' and now police numbers keeps the Lab on front foot. No one is talking about Labour's uncosted manifesto.
The gap could, and probably will, get closer in the next few days IMO. What a mess May has made of this.
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
Calm down dear.
Come and see how popular she is on the doorstep.
Why is that not showing in the polls anymore when it was before?
The polls showed undecideds going Tory before the campaign proper got going. Now they're showing LDs going Labour and new convert Tories largely flipping back to undecided.
Amongst Tory voters she remains popular, and amongst all voters she remains far more popular than any Tory leader in government for the past 20 years...
I find myself finally in the position of being angry at basically every single party, truly angry.
Labour for choosing Corbyn and likely voting in their millions for him to be PM and Abbott Home Secretary, too many it would seem to get rid of him. Tories for running such a poor campaign Corbyn will remain in place and they'll have wasted months that could have been spent on Brexit negotiations for nothing LDs for failing to take advantage of either of the above to make any marked improvement UKIP for being generally useless Greens for being generally nonsense SNP for being too successful for my liking
SNP seeing a 12% swing to the Tories on tonight's poll, by far the biggest swing of anywhere in the UK from 2015 is to Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives
Just wondering what impact the Manchester tragedy might be having and the extent to which this might continue through until 8 June.
May, ex-Home Secretary and current PM, has tried to dodge responsibility and outrageously has tried to smear her opponent Corbyn as a security risk. The British public is expressing its disgust.
It's not one poll. Perhaps it is overreaction to multiple polls showing a trend of big reductions in the Tory lead, but until there's evidence to the contrary - and so far the only evidence, from the campaign, is anecdote on the doorstep (admittedly the locals seemed to indicate a poor chance for Labour, but then as we are often told, people vote differently in locals vs national) - unless one just doesn't believe the polls, it seems apt to react to Labour surging into something approaching contention.
First time poster, long time lurker! Seems to me (and most of you as well) that Cons simply cannot gain a narrative, and Corbyn continues to ride the crest of the wave. 'Dementia tax' and now police numbers keeps the Lab on front foot. No one is talking about Labour's uncosted manifesto.
The gap could, and probably will, get closer in the next few days IMO. What a mess May has made of this.
Welcome, for some reasons it says you have zero posts. Spooky.
Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labour
I would be very interested in seeing some polling evidence of whether tactical voting is returning. That could be the difference between 150 seat majority and a 25 seat one.
A big return to tactical voting would explain the figures and invalidate the Baxter type models.
She's worse than Gordon Brown, at least he wasn't stupid enough to actually call an early election.
This site is absolute comedy tonight.
I'm loving it!
Total blind panic!! It's hilarious. There'll be much rowing back when the results are announced.
I don't row back, I just admit to being a fool with a spine like a jacob's cream cracker when it comes to the strength of my convictions.
I truly have tried not to over estimate Labour this time, like I always do, but it is proving very hard when they are regularly polling in the mid 30s, making beating Ed M in vote share at least looking a given at this stage.
Con Majority is now out to 1.15 on Betfair though, so worth a top up, and tomorrow we have the joy of Corbyn's speech blaming Britain for terrorism followed by him sitting down with Andrew Neil - someone who's seen everything before and isn't going to pull any punches.
Night all!
It isn't one poll, though. There's been a rash of polls showing a sharp tightening of the race.
Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labour
That is not quite true . On this poll Labour gain around 42 2015 LD voters but lose around 39 2015 Lab voters to them . Conservatives gain around 43 2015 Labor voters but lose around 40 2015 Con voters to them . It is all marginal movements going in all directions except UKIP to everyone and a small net movement from Con to Lib Dem .
The biggest net movement is over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters to Tory, as you say a smaller net movement from Labour to Tory and Tory to LD and LD to Labour and UKIP to Labour
I find myself finally in the position of being angry at basically every single party, truly angry.
Labour for choosing Corbyn and likely voting in their millions for him to be PM and Abbott Home Secretary, too many it would seem to get rid of him. Tories for running such a poor campaign Corbyn will remain in place and they'll have wasted months that could have been spent on Brexit negotiations for nothing LDs for failing to take advantage of either of the above to make any marked improvement UKIP for being generally useless Greens for being generally nonsense SNP for being too successful for my liking
SNP seeing a 12% swing to the Tories on tonight's poll, by far the biggest swing of anywhere in the UK from 2015 is to Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives
Yeah, but any amount of success for the SNP is too much for my liking you see.
why are the polls taken so seriously? They were wrong in 2015. What has changed?
They would hope to have fixed their issues. And what else have we got?
I may be wrong, but I never got the impression they had clearly identified the source of error and fixed it. It seems more like a new best guess, but is the new guess really any more accurate than the old one? And I suppose if it's inaccurate it's just as likely to favour one party as the other.
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
May is making NET GAINs from 2015 Labour in tonight's poll, the Corbyn gains are mainly from LD 2015 voters and a few UKIP, it is those few UKIP May needs to target on a socially conservative platform, she has not lost any laissez-faire libertarians to Corbyn
If any of these things had happened to previous Labour leaders, they would have been crucified. But we have become so desensitized to Corbyn's extremism and incompetence that none of this seems to matter. Expectations are so low that he is being given an easy ride.
If in your view the Labour campaign has been poor, the Tory one so far has to be judged as truly dire, given the change in the polls since things kicked off.
Other than a bounce when May called the GE, the Tory rating has been remarkably stable. As ever, look at the share, not the lead.
Had you waited a few minutes before posting that (at 9.06pm)....
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
This is all well and good, but wasn't it true 6 months ago too. Poll leads were big then.
No it wasn't. Inflation has only just seen a big spike and economic growth slowed from 0.7 in Q4 to 0.2 in Q1.
why are the polls taken so seriously? They were wrong in 2015. What has changed?
They would hope to have fixed their issues. And what else have we got?
I may be wrong, but I never got the impression they had clearly identified the source of error and fixed it. It seems more like a new best guess, but is the new guess really any more accurate than the old one? And I suppose if it's inaccurate it's just as likely to favour one party as the other.
Labour have a stonking lead with 18-24-year-olds, but also a healthy 17-point lead with 25-49-year-olds (a HUGE swing with that age bracket since the start of the election). The Tories are still pretty much as strong as ever with the 65+ age bracket, a 48-point lead.
She's worse than Gordon Brown, at least he wasn't stupid enough to actually call an early election.
This site is absolute comedy tonight.
I'm loving it!
I'm just spitballing ideas out for potential threads I might write for Sunday.
I suspect this is not the weekend to write threads more than 6 hours in advance.
Hey, TSE! Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. WVAP! Fry half a city with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, RPGs, phased plasma pulse rifles! We got sonic electronic ball-breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks...
Wondering what chance a Labour poll lead between now and polling day.
Near zero, Yougov shows the Tories have made a net gain from Labour since 2015 even tonight, the Corbyn gains are entirely due to over a third of 2015 LDs and a few UKIP switching to Labour and there are not enough left from them to squeeze
Actually that means if the Tories lost the net gain they've made from Labour then there's every chance of a Labour lead!
Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labour
I would be very interested in seeing some polling evidence of whether tactical voting is returning. That could be the difference between 150 seat majority and a 25 seat one.
A big return to tactical voting would explain the figures and invalidate the Baxter type models.
Well, it all depends who the tactical vote is against.
Well I'm off. Tories need a narrative, as mattyneth says, and yet the only suggestion seems to be the one they keep saying will happen and make all the difference, bring up Corbyn's IRA stuff. Too late. Labour are bouncing right now, Tories need to knock them back, have some big leads restored, or they risk a further unravelling as it seems more bad news is to come.
In the meantime, I've taken some bets to try to cover the possibility Labour do even better than thought. 50-70 majority predicted at the start of the campaign for the Tories, still very plausible, but a bit less than that now just as likely as a bit over that.
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
May is making NET GAINs from 2015 Labour in tonight's poll, the Corbyn gains are mainly from LD 2015 voters and a few UKIP, it is those few UKIP May needs to target on a socially conservative platform, she has not lost any laissez-faire libertarians to Corbyn
That is not true , see my post at 11.03
It is true actually, as even your own post admitted the Tories are making small net gains from Labour while Corbyn is making net gains from the LDs and picking up about 1.5 UKIP voters for every 5 going to the Tories
Con Majority is now out to 1.15 on Betfair though, so worth a top up, and tomorrow we have the joy of Corbyn's speech blaming Britain for terrorism followed by him sitting down with Andrew Neil - someone who's seen everything before and isn't going to pull any punches.
Night all!
It isn't one poll, though. There's been a rash of polls showing a sharp tightening of the race.
Look at the share, not the lead.
Labour were struggling to maintain 30% when the locals happened, now almost 35%. Over same 3 weeks Tories have gone from ~46% to ~44%.
Hmm, I do see your point to some extent. But that still suggests a modest Tory win - and a fairly rapid trend against them.
Well I'm off. Tories need a narrative, as mattyneth says, and yet the only suggestion seems to be the one they keep saying will happen and make all the difference, bring up Corbyn's IRA stuff. Too late. Labour are bouncing right now, Tories need to knock them back, have some big leads restored, or they risk a further unravelling as it seems more bad news is to come.
I'm hoping the IFS manifesto analysis tomorrow provides a nice pivot onto manifesto costings. Although who knows, there may be a bigger whole in the Tory one!!
She's worse than Gordon Brown, at least he wasn't stupid enough to actually call an early election.
This site is absolute comedy tonight.
I'm loving it!
Total blind panic!! It's hilarious. There'll be much rowing back when the results are announced.
What's your prediction if I may ask ? You did get the referendum and IIRC 2015 correct.
Looking at the marginals there's a lot in your part of the country - 3 in Birmingham, 2 in Coventry, 2 in Walsall, 2 in Wolverhampton, 2 in Stoke, Dudley N and NuL.
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
So where does increasing the minimum amount to be left from 24k to 100k fit in with this analysis? Or does analysys fail you when discussing Mrs May? I am left thinking you prefer Abbotts way with figures.
Then your thinking is deficient.
You have a funny way of showing it. You mention inheritance tax. Is it not labour who propose to raise IHT. Their Manifesto clearly shows that they would lower IHT threshold - ie collect more money of yoy when you are safely dead. And they make no suggestion that they make any allowance for inflation. But you seek to tar Mrs May with this brush wheras she and the Tories actually plan to inclrease the threshold so a couples allowance would be £1 million. Are you sure about your mathemetical abilities?
I find myself finally in the position of being angry at basically every single party, truly angry.
Labour for choosing Corbyn and likely voting in their millions for him to be PM and Abbott Home Secretary, too many it would seem to get rid of him. Tories for running such a poor campaign Corbyn will remain in place and they'll have wasted months that could have been spent on Brexit negotiations for nothing LDs for failing to take advantage of either of the above to make any marked improvement UKIP for being generally useless Greens for being generally nonsense SNP for being too successful for my liking
SNP seeing a 12% swing to the Tories on tonight's poll, by far the biggest swing of anywhere in the UK from 2015 is to Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives
Yeah, but any amount of success for the SNP is too much for my liking you see.
Yes, well they will not disappear overnight but this would be the first real swing against the SNP in a national election since the referendum so would be significant
On Yougov yes but on Kantar TNS the swing is the other way ie from Tory to SNP. Indeed on Kantar the SNP win the lot - all 59.
The point is that on sub samples you stake your money and takes your choice. Just one thing however. It seems hardly likely that the Tory Party manifesto is collapsing everywhere except in Scotland!
On Yougov yes but on Kantar TNS the swing is the other way ie from Tory to SNP. Indeed on Kantar the SNP win the lot - all 59.
The point is that on sub samples you stake your money and takes your choice. Just one thing however. It seems hardly likely that the Tory Party manifesto is collapsing everywhere except in Scotland!
Yougov also did a full Scottish poll, not a subsample, which showed similar results and their final 2015 poll had the SNP on 49% so I will take them over a Kantar subsample. Indeed Yougov was far more accurate in its 2015 general election Scottish polling than its UK polling
Well I'm off. Tories need a narrative, as mattyneth says, and yet the only suggestion seems to be the one they keep saying will happen and make all the difference, bring up Corbyn's IRA stuff. Too late. Labour are bouncing right now, Tories need to knock them back, have some big leads restored, or they risk a further unravelling as it seems more bad news is to come.
I'm hoping the IFS manifesto analysis tomorrow provides a nice pivot onto manifesto costings. Although who knows, there may be a bigger whole in the Tory one!!
The breakfast plan seems to be uncosted garbage, although it's small fry in the scheme of things. The IFS will almost certainly find some other holes, too. We'll see how serious they are.
The tories main problem is they've quietly conceded on austerity.
Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labour
I would be very interested in seeing some polling evidence of whether tactical voting is returning. That could be the difference between 150 seat majority and a 25 seat one.
Tactical voting in whose favour?
2 party voting seems to be returning, both parties are dramatically up leaving fewer third party votes to squeeze tactically.
In 1997, the LibDems dropped 1% from their 1992 total to 16.8%. Yet they increased their seat count by almost 150%. Why? Tactical voting.
Last year in Scotland, the LibDems lost share in the constituency portion of the Holyrood vote, yet doubled their number of seats, and came close in Caithness, Sutherland & Ross, and managed an impressive 15% bump in Argyll & Bute. Why? Tactical voting.
If Labour voters in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Bath, Lewes, etc., choose to vote tactically for the LibDems - which they backed away from in 2015 - then those seats could be lost, even with the LDs on just 10%.
Quite. Sarah Olney won the Richmond Park by election in part because almost all Labour supporters voted for her, unlike in 2015 when they certainly abandoned the LibDems.
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
So where does increasing the minimum amount to be left from 24k to 100k fit in with this analysis? Or does analysys fail you when discussing Mrs May? I am left thinking you prefer Abbotts way with figures.
Then your thinking is deficient.
You have a funny way of showing it. You mention inheritance tax. Is it not labour who propose to raise IHT. Their Manifesto clearly shows that they would lower IHT threshold - ie collect more money of yoy when you are safely dead. And they make no suggestion that they make any allowance for inflation. But you seek to tar Mrs May with this brush wheras she and the Tories actually plan to inclrease the threshold so a couples allowance would be £1 million. Are you sure about your mathemetical abilities?
It's all about PERCEPTIONS.
You know it was a crap idea, because of the u-turn.
As Sir David Butler pointed out, when was the last time a party u-turned on their manifesto during a campaign.
As I pointed several times last week, I was quite supportive of principles behind the social care changes, they needed some refinement.
The moderate tone makes it seem more reasonable than the things his fellow travellers spew. It could be popular, god forbid - they'll have tested it, I have no doubt.
Just wondering what impact the Manchester tragedy might be having and the extent to which this might continue through until 8 June.
May, ex-Home Secretary and current PM, has tried to dodge responsibility and outrageously has tried to smear her opponent Corbyn as a security risk. The British public is expressing its disgust.
This despite spending more on MI5 and the security services? Despite Corbyn wanting to leave NATO? Despite Corbyn speaking on behalf of terrorists wherever he can find them and urging us to wave a white flag in response to the black one?
Where do you get your ideas from? There seems to be little logic to them.
why are the polls taken so seriously? They were wrong in 2015. What has changed?
They would hope to have fixed their issues. And what else have we got?
I may be wrong, but I never got the impression they had clearly identified the source of error and fixed it. It seems more like a new best guess, but is the new guess really any more accurate than the old one? And I suppose if it's inaccurate it's just as likely to favour one party as the other.
That's why i said 'hope'.
Sure. I just think a lot of caution is needed, considering the polls got the lead wrong by 6-7 points last time, and we don't really know whether the revised methodologies are any more accurate.
Comments
What doesn't make any sense to me is Copeland and the locals. The Tories got magnificent results, don't tell me that was from voters who weren't paying attention yet. And the boost for Labour in the current polling is from young and non-voters - not old voters defecting due to #DementiaTax.
Why have these voters suddenly woken up when they didn't mere weeks ago?
Last year in Scotland, the LibDems lost share in the constituency portion of the Holyrood vote, yet doubled their number of seats, and came close in Caithness, Sutherland & Ross, and managed an impressive 15% bump in Argyll & Bute. Why? Tactical voting.
If Labour voters in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Bath, Lewes, etc., choose to vote tactically for the LibDems - which they backed away from in 2015 - then those seats could be lost, even with the LDs on just 10%.
But it does seem very likely that Theresa May has made a rookie error with the presentation of the social care changes - not her first rookie error, of course, but this one is serious. I think we can wave goodbye to the idea of a landslide, so I've just sold on the spreads at 384.
They are more likely to see improvement and possible gains in and around Edinburgh in places like East Lothian, Midlothian and Edinburgh N although the lack of a Green candidate in the last one will make the SNP that bit safer this time around.
It is, as Alistair has stated before, going to come down to how many SNP supporters turnout this time considering that we had a higher than the rest of the country 71% turnout overall last time - mainly down to the Nationalist surge. I get the impression that they are not nearly as enthused as in 2015.
If they really struggle to get the voters to the polls, and Glaswegians are notoriously poor when it comes to voting, then there could be an upset in 2 weeks time.
He might be the greatest traitor this country has seen since Kim Philby.
Labour for choosing Corbyn and likely voting in their millions for him to be PM and Abbott Home Secretary, too many it would seem to get rid of him.
Tories for running such a poor campaign Corbyn will remain in place and they'll have wasted months that could have been spent on Brexit negotiations for nothing
LDs for failing to take advantage of either of the above to make any marked improvement
UKIP for being generally useless
Greens for being generally nonsense
SNP for being too successful for my liking
This whole situation confuses me.
In reality though I suspect an outlier
Improbable but no longer impossible. We might have a South Thanet criminal charge to come - if the lead was still in the mid teens, I doubt it would gain traction, but with the Tories on the slide...
I'm loving it!
Now ...
Come and see how popular she is on the doorstep.
I suspect this is not the weekend to write threads more than 6 hours in advance.
In which case what arrests the Tory slide and sees them recover? A bad performance by Corbyn against Neill? The man has had a good few weeks and surely knows every bit of dirt Neill might throw at him, and has been receiving attacks for years, there's no guarantee he cocks up.
That means a Hung parliament, GET ON!!!
And yet... it has tightened; the Tory campaign has been poor; and they've gambled everything on strong and stable Tezza, but she's been wooden and suffered a needless policy humiliation.
A campaigner she is not. I wonder if Tories regret she didn't have a training bout with Leadsome last year? She's ring rusty to say the least.
2 weeks ago ................................................................30%
Last week ....................................................................35|%
Today .........................................................................38%
June 8th we demand a recount!!!
Only joking TMICIPM
Not sure what happened to my previous answer but here goes again...
800,000 sounds impressive but the actual number of respondents will be very low and has been trending lower over time because people are less inclined to do surveys etc. The polling companies have to get a certain number of people to respond to make the poll "credible" so they will poll until they do. As I said before, standards in the industry have been cut because margins are under pressure as ad hoc research is seen as less valuable. Thus, it is likely that the polling companies are becoming reliant on a smaller number of active respondents.
The key is what I said about they need to get the numbers up to make a survey credible. For all the talk about random samples and high standards etc, if you are under time pressure and your response rate is dropping, you start relying on a smaller number of respondents, which makes it easier to influence.
The gap could, and probably will, get closer in the next few days IMO. What a mess May has made of this.
Absolute complacency and blind panic.
Amongst Tory voters she remains popular, and amongst all voters she remains far more popular than any Tory leader in government for the past 20 years...
I truly have tried not to over estimate Labour this time, like I always do, but it is proving very hard when they are regularly polling in the mid 30s, making beating Ed M in vote share at least looking a given at this stage.
Bought the Tories at 378 closed out at 396.
People trusting this poll and trend could do worse than take the 6/4 on Corbyn surviving until 2018 with PP.
The febrile atmosphere on here tonight might have something to do with a few bets placed at the start of the campaign?
Ave_It told everyone to calm down a few weeks ago and think about a 50 majority and he was right...
Labour ahead with women 43% to 40%.
Labour have a stonking lead with 18-24-year-olds, but also a healthy 17-point lead with 25-49-year-olds (a HUGE swing with that age bracket since the start of the election). The Tories are still pretty much as strong as ever with the 65+ age bracket, a 48-point lead.
RobD: Knock it off, Sunil!
In the meantime, I've taken some bets to try to cover the possibility Labour do even better than thought. 50-70 majority predicted at the start of the campaign for the Tories, still very plausible, but a bit less than that now just as likely as a bit over that.
Over same 3 weeks Tories have gone from ~46% to ~44%.
Hmm, I do see your point to some extent. But that still suggests a modest Tory win - and a fairly rapid trend against them.
Looking at the marginals there's a lot in your part of the country - 3 in Birmingham, 2 in Coventry, 2 in Walsall, 2 in Wolverhampton, 2 in Stoke, Dudley N and NuL.
Are you sure about your mathemetical abilities?
http://www.selfridges.com/GB/en/cat/gucci-jordaan-leather-loafers_5120-10004-0369654109/?previewAttribute=Wine
On Yougov yes but on Kantar TNS the swing is the other way ie from Tory to SNP. Indeed on Kantar the SNP win the lot - all 59.
The point is that on sub samples you stake your money and takes your choice. Just one thing however. It seems hardly likely that the Tory Party manifesto is collapsing everywhere except in Scotland!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40053427
The tories main problem is they've quietly conceded on austerity.
You know it was a crap idea, because of the u-turn.
As Sir David Butler pointed out, when was the last time a party u-turned on their manifesto during a campaign.
As I pointed several times last week, I was quite supportive of principles behind the social care changes, they needed some refinement.
It's made what has been so far a very boring election a bit exciting.
Where do you get your ideas from? There seems to be little logic to them.
All of whom I think will have done their fieldwork, Thursday and Friday.
Strap yourselves in!
Too late