The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
Calm down dear.
Come and see how popular she is on the doorstep.
Why is that not showing in the polls anymore when it was before?
Read the yougov tables please, she is still well ahead of Corbyn it is just Corbyn is winning over the few remaining leftie Liberals not much to do with May at all
I had a few voters tell me they liked May when I canvassed for the locals
That had been replaced by vitriol towards her for wanting to steal my house pre Manchester.
Out for first time tomorrow post Manchester but colleagues tell me today was very positive for LAB.
As a poster said earlier on this thread I projected previously a maj of 50. I think now it will be around maj 20 because of an incompetent campaign but we will still win
I wonder how long May would last as Tory leader if she only gets a majority of 20?
Given the inept campaign she's ran, a majority of less than 50 would put her survivability in doubt. Even if she wins, all this election has succeeded in doing is destroying her image of competence.
Still when the Brexit negotiations go wrong, she'll make a useful sacrifice.
Credit where it is due.This bomber was shopped by friends and by mosque.
It was not them who turned a blind eye.
Do we actually know that?
I think the phrase 'a blind eye' is a bit offensive, actually. Anyone who has to make a medical diagnosis should know how difficult this.
Medical tests do not diagnose with 100 per cent efficiency. If there is a false negative is that called 'turning a blind eye'.
The Manchester suicide bomber was repeatedly flagged to the authorities over his extremist views, but was not stopped by officers, it emerged Wednesday night. as reported two years ago “because he thought he was involved in extremism and terrorism”.
Mohammed Shafiq, chief executive of the Ramadhan Foundation, said: “People in the community expressed concerns about the way this man was behaving and reported it in the right way using the right channels.
“They did not hear anything since.”
Two friends of Abedi also became so worried they separately telephoned the police counter-terrorism hotline five years ago and again last year.
“They had been worried that ‘he was supporting terrorism’ and had expressed the view that ‘being a suicide bomber was ok’,” a source told the BBC.
Akram Ramadan, 49, part of the close-knit Libyan community in south Manchester, said Abedi had been banned from Didsbury Mosque after he had confronted the Imam who was delivering an anti-extremist sermon.
Mr Ramadan said he understood that Abedi had been placed on a “watch list” because the mosque reported him to the authorities for his extremist views.
A well-placed source at Didsbury Mosque confirmed it had contacted the Home Office’s Prevent anti-radicalisation programme as a result.
A US official also briefed that members of Abedi’s own family had contacted British police saying that he was “dangerous”, but again the information does not appear to have been acted upon.
As a poster said earlier on this thread I projected previously a maj of 50. I think now it will be around maj 20 because of an incompetent campaign but we will still win
I wonder how long May would last as Tory leader if she only gets a majority of 20?
Given the inept campaign she's ran, a majority of less than 50 would put her survivability in doubt. Even if she wins, all this election has succeeded in doing is destroying her image of competence.
Still when the Brexit negotiations go wrong, she'll make a useful sacrifice.
The greatest irony would be if there were a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party, and if May's stance on Brexit made it impossible for her to remain prim minister.
Credit where it is due.This bomber was shopped by friends and by mosque.
It was not them who turned a blind eye.
Do we actually know that?
I think the phrase 'a blind eye' is a bit offensive, actually. Anyone who has to make a medical diagnosis should know how difficult this.
Medical tests do not diagnose with 100 per cent efficiency. If there is a false negative is that called 'turning a blind eye'.
The Manchester suicide bomber was repeatedly flagged to the authorities over his extremist views, but was not stopped by officers, it emerged Wednesday night. as reported two years ago “because he thought he was involved in extremism and terrorism”.
Mohammed Shafiq, chief executive of the Ramadhan Foundation, said: “People in the community expressed concerns about the way this man was behaving and reported it in the right way using the right channels.
“They did not hear anything since.”
Two friends of Abedi also became so worried they separately telephoned the police counter-terrorism hotline five years ago and again last year.
“They had been worried that ‘he was supporting terrorism’ and had expressed the view that ‘being a suicide bomber was ok’,” a source told the BBC.
Akram Ramadan, 49, part of the close-knit Libyan community in south Manchester, said Abedi had been banned from Didsbury Mosque after he had confronted the Imam who was delivering an anti-extremist sermon.
Mr Ramadan said he understood that Abedi had been placed on a “watch list” because the mosque reported him to the authorities for his extremist views.
A well-placed source at Didsbury Mosque confirmed it had contacted the Home Office’s Prevent anti-radicalisation programme as a result.
A US official also briefed that members of Abedi’s own family had contacted British police saying that he was “dangerous”, but again the information does not appear to have been acted upon.
So it was Mays fault until 2016 and Amber Rudds since then I guess?
Only in the sense that they are the responsible ministers.
It is only sensible to have a case review to learn lessons. Clearly the security services misjudged the risk. Wise to learn the lessons.
We'll never know, but it would be interesting to learn just where this guy ranked on their watchlist. Was it right at the threshold, or near the bottom.
She's worse than Gordon Brown, at least he wasn't stupid enough to actually call an early election.
This site is absolute comedy tonight.
I'm loving it!
Total blind panic!! It's hilarious. There'll be much rowing back when the results are announced.
I don't row back, I just admit to being a fool with a spine like a jacob's cream cracker when it comes to the strength of my convictions.
I truly have tried not to over estimate Labour this time, like I always do, but it is proving very hard when they are regularly polling in the mid 30s, making beating Ed M in vote share at least looking a given at this stage.
I do wonder what Corbyn's survival-level result is. Both in terms of preventing the PLP moving against him, and in retaining support among the grass-roots. Beating EdM's vote share may be enough for the latter, not the former. Beating EdM on seats likewise. I think he'd at least have to reduce the size of the Tory majority to stand any chance of preventing a challenge from the PLP, and possibly do more than that.
He was being confronted with the possibility of Lab close to 150 a month ago. If they get over 200 he's safe as houses if he wants, he would legitimately say he might have done even better if he didn't have people like Woodcock coming out at the start saying he was terrible.
I think I might have mentioned this the other day, but he has a decent chance of beating Blair '05 for vote share, and certain Brown '10. If he can say he did better than Blair, I can't see the membership kicking him out...
I think that Corbyn is now safe. He will be even safer following his statesmanlike speech on foreign policy tomorrow (which he rehearsed in his Chatham House speech) and his persuasive interview with Andrew Neil tomorrow evening, (which will be in stark contrast to TMay's effort).
As a poster said earlier on this thread I projected previously a maj of 50. I think now it will be around maj 20 because of an incompetent campaign but we will still win
I wonder how long May would last as Tory leader if she only gets a majority of 20?
Given the inept campaign she's ran, a majority of less than 50 would put her survivability in doubt. Even if she wins, all this election has succeeded in doing is destroying her image of competence.
Still when the Brexit negotiations go wrong, she'll make a useful sacrifice.
The greatest irony would be if there were a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party, and if May's stance on Brexit made it impossible for her to remain prim minister.
The Tories would split before they put a soft Brexiteer in as leader at the moment
As a poster said earlier on this thread I projected previously a maj of 50. I think now it will be around maj 20 because of an incompetent campaign but we will still win
I wonder how long May would last as Tory leader if she only gets a majority of 20?
Given the inept campaign she's ran, a majority of less than 50 would put her survivability in doubt. Even if she wins, all this election has succeeded in doing is destroying her image of competence.
Still when the Brexit negotiations go wrong, she'll make a useful sacrifice.
The greatest irony would be if there were a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party, and if May's stance on Brexit made it impossible for her to remain prim minister.
The Tories would split before they put a soft Brexiteer in as leader at the moment
And none of the minority parties outside NI would support a hard Brexiteer.
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a disaster area policy that has legitimised nationalisation.
Calm down dear.
Come and see how popular she is on the doorstep.
Why is that not showing in the polls anymore when it was before?
Read the yougov tables please, she is still well ahead of Corbyn it is just Corbyn is winning over the few remaining leftie Liberals not much to do with May at all
I had a few voters tell me they liked May when I canvassed for the locals
That had been replaced by vitriol towards her for wanting to steal my house pre Manchester.
Out for first time tomorrow post Manchester but colleagues tell me today was very positive for LAB.
In terms of net moves on tonight's poll though there is still small net movement since 2015 from Labour to the Tories, just Labour is getting bigger net movement since 2015 from the LDs, UKIP is the biggest net mover of all to the Tories but not as much as it was before last weekend and Manchester
Lovely jubbly, a big narrowing of the polls for the media to get hysterically stuck into, and which will now embolden the Labour Leadership. Those claims by opponents that May was heading for a North Korean level majority are now going to look a bit hollow too, suddenly the polls would indicate that the result is not cut and dried. I now expect a ramping up of the threat of a 'coalition of chaos' which could put our Brexit negociations, among other things, at risk.
I have made no secret from day one that I am not a big fan of Theresa May, and I have also raised doubts about her Leadership style. Right now I suggest that the campaign team don't panic, and keep to their strategy campaign grid. But once the GE is done and dusted, then changes need to be made, May has got to find herself a George Osborne figure within her Cabinet who is going to have her back, but also be able to stand up to her and be prepared to disagree with her when needed, and fast! And she has got to make sure that she starts becoming more of a team player in her own Cabinet, and she allows that Osborne figure to have clear seniority over that non elected clique that May has surrounded herself with and bunckered down with for years on vital issues of policy etc. May needs to have a reshuffle fast, and she needs to replace a lot of the underperformers in her Cabinet with some of the real talent she unceremonously booted back to the backbenches when she became Leader.
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch, and both these issues were certainly registering negatively with a few folk I know. And these are the kind of mistakes that could have been avoided had May had a more diverse and talented pool of Cabinet Ministers she actually engaged with and kept in the loop. And finally, cooking up a manifesto of policies with your unelected inner clique and then expecting your elected Cabinet or backbenchers to go out and sell them in the media and on the doorsteps without proper consultation is a recipe for disaster.
Way back when May became Leader she immediately brought up bringing back grammar schools, next thing, her Education Minister is not available for QuestionTime and a recently sacked junior Minister who clearly doesn't agree with the policy is then left loyally trying to bat this toxic issue away. May now needs to start practicing within her own Cabinet the same kind of trusted 'devolved' working relationship she has developed with Ruth Davidson. I worry that May and her clique deliberately filled her Cabinet, not with a pool of Conservative Ministerial talent, but only those that were never in danger of setting the heather on fire and therefore outshining her...
Did anyone see the video clip of Donald Trump brusquely pushing aside the Prime Minister of Montenegro in order to place himself in prime position? Even more bizarre was the "Il Duce" expression of self satisfaction on his face, having done so. Quite apart from his appallingly bad manners, one was forced to seriously question his sanity. https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Trump+Montenegro
If I were May I would hold a rally in the north on Monday and announce an absolute travel ban on all travel to and from Libya and Syria until those nations are returned to stability and freed from ISIS, exceptions only for the media and aid agencies
On the basis of one subsample? Not to mention that would be a hugely controversial move which would alienate far more voters than it attracts. It'd be social care x100.
Wrong, a huge 66% of voters with yougov want a ban on Brits visiting Syria without permission being allowed back into the UK. Leftie urban liberals would hate it, everyone else May needs to win would love it
As a poster said earlier on this thread I projected previously a maj of 50. I think now it will be around maj 20 because of an incompetent campaign but we will still win
I wonder how long May would last as Tory leader if she only gets a majority of 20?
Given the inept campaign she's ran, a majority of less than 50 would put her survivability in doubt. Even if she wins, all this election has succeeded in doing is destroying her image of competence.
Still when the Brexit negotiations go wrong, she'll make a useful sacrifice.
The greatest irony would be if there were a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party, and if May's stance on Brexit made it impossible for her to remain prim minister.
The Tories would split before they put a soft Brexiteer in as leader at the moment
A split of the Tory party and a general re-alignment of the UK political scene would be a good move.
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch
May's policy on fox hunting is identical to Cameron's.
Just seen the YouGov. Doesn't tally at all with canvassing tonight. Pre-Manchester, the social care proposals genuinely were an issue; today, I didn't get anything of the sort.
At the very least, we should exercise considerable scepticism about a poll which at the moment is well out of line with the rest of the industry.
Wakefield or Hemsworth if I may ask ?
As a minor anecdote nobody where I work has mentioned social care.
Wakefield. An ex-council estate in Horbury to be precise.
If it was Clifton Road, my son tells me he's canvassing there for Mary tomorrow I believe. It will be interesting to see if he finds the same.
As a poster said earlier on this thread I projected previously a maj of 50. I think now it will be around maj 20 because of an incompetent campaign but we will still win
I wonder how long May would last as Tory leader if she only gets a majority of 20?
Given the inept campaign she's ran, a majority of less than 50 would put her survivability in doubt. Even if she wins, all this election has succeeded in doing is destroying her image of competence.
Still when the Brexit negotiations go wrong, she'll make a useful sacrifice.
The greatest irony would be if there were a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party, and if May's stance on Brexit made it impossible for her to remain prim minister.
The Tories would split before they put a soft Brexiteer in as leader at the moment
And none of the minority parties outside NI would support a hard Brexiteer.
UKIP certainly would, along with as you say the DUP and maybe even 1 or 2 Labour MPs who backed Leave
If I were May I would hold a rally in the north on Monday and announce an absolute travel ban on all travel to and from Libya and Syria until those nations are returned to stability and freed from ISIS, exceptions only for the media and aid agencies
On the basis of one subsample? Not to mention that would be a hugely controversial move which would alienate far more voters than it attracts. It'd be social care x100.
Wrong, a huge 66% of voters with yougov want a ban on Brits visiting Syria without permission being allowed back into the UK. Leftie urban liberals would hate it, everyone else May needs to win would love it
Did anyone see the video clip of Donald Trump brusquely pushing aside the Prime Minister of Montenegro in order to place himself in prime position? Even more bizarre was the "Il Duce" expression of self satisfaction on his face, having done so. Quite apart from his appallingly bad manners, one was forced to seriously question his sanity.
He really showed his true colours there. My wife couldn't believe her eyes. "Did you see that! My God - did you see that!"
The only people "whose fault" the bombing was is the plotters and bomber themselves.
That is a different question from could more have been done to prevent the attack. (in my view I think the security forces missed key chances, but there should be a review).
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch
May's policy on fox hunting is identical to Cameron's.
The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....
Snigger.
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay from fanbois.
Despite being one of the most ardent supporters of SDP Theresa on here? Come off it. You've dug yourself into a position and now you want to justify it despite all the mounting evidence that she's not very good and not really a proper Tory. Not a single Tory member I know is in favour of state intervention in the energy markets, other than to increase competition. It's a
Why is that not showing in the polls anymore when it was before?
Read the yougov tables please, she is still well ahead of Corbyn it is just Corbyn is winning over the few remaining leftie Liberals not much to do with May at all
I had a few voters tell me they liked May when I canvassed for the locals
That had been replaced by vitriol towards her for wanting to steal my house pre Manchester.
Out for first time tomorrow post Manchester but colleagues tell me today was very positive for LAB.
In terms of net moves on tonight's poll though there is still small net movement since 2015 from Labour to the Tories, just Labour is getting bigger net movement since 2015 from the LDs, UKIP is the biggest net mover of all to the Tories but not as much as it was before last weekend and Manchester
Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?
If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.
Very good point. I have been thinking that all week. Plus public sector workers, all of whom have been promised big pay rises. Look at the adulatory reception for Corbyn a fortnight ago when he addressed the Headteachers' Conference.
Jezza does have an appeal Brown and Ed lacked
He is radical appears to be genuine and not awkward
Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?
If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.
Very good point. I have been thinking that all week. Plus public sector workers, all of whom have been promised big pay rises. Look at the adulatory reception for Corbyn a fortnight ago when he addressed the Headteachers' Conference.
Jezza does have an appeal Brown and Ed lacked
He is radical appears to be genuine and not awkward
He will pile up votes in Lab areas
Will not appeal as much elsewhere and
TMICIPM with a comfortable majority.
That does seem to be a reasonable hypothesis.
An interesting question, for those familiar with the inner workings of the Tory party, is whether she will be able to stick with using just her two advisers after the election? Is Timothy now untenable? One would think that a certain number of representations from senior MPs would have to weigh heavily on her mind.
Wasn't the 'dementia tax' actually the brainchild of John Godfrey, director of the No 10 Policy Unit ? Or at least that's what the Times said a few days back.
Interestingly, he used to work for Legal & General, which might suggest a certain motivation behind the idea...
Did anyone see the video clip of Donald Trump brusquely pushing aside the Prime Minister of Montenegro in order to place himself in prime position? Even more bizarre was the "Il Duce" expression of self satisfaction on his face, having done so. Quite apart from his appallingly bad manners, one was forced to seriously question his sanity.
He really showed his true colours there. My wife couldn't believe her eyes. "Did you see that! My God - did you see that!"
He's a child. We should NOT be sharing intelligence with that thing.
As a poster said earlier on this thread I projected previously a maj of 50. I think now it will be around maj 20 because of an incompetent campaign but we will still win
I wonder how long May would last as Tory leader if she only gets a majority of 20?
Given the inept campaign she's ran, a majority of less than 50 would put her survivability in doubt. Even if she wins, all this election has succeeded in doing is destroying her image of competence.
Still when the Brexit negotiations go wrong, she'll make a useful sacrifice.
The greatest irony would be if there were a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party, and if May's stance on Brexit made it impossible for her to remain prim minister.
The Tories would split before they put a soft Brexiteer in as leader at the moment
And none of the minority parties outside NI would support a hard Brexiteer.
UKIP certainly would, along with as you say the DUP and maybe even 1 or 2 Labour MPs who backed Leave
I meant parties that are going to be represented in parliament, obviously.
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
Brexit sold change, Remain sold more of the same. Trump sold change, Clinton sold more of the same. Corbyn sells change, May sells more of the same.
Sometimes some people get sick of bran flakes and buy coco pops for a change.
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch
May's policy on fox hunting is identical to Cameron's.
It was stupid to flag it up though.
By answering a direct question? How should she have answered?
If I were May I would hold a rally in the north on Monday and announce an absolute travel ban on all travel to and from Libya and Syria until those nations are returned to stability and freed from ISIS, exceptions only for the media and aid agencies
I wonder how many isis fan boys travel to Syria under the guise of aid.
If he was not picked up, it was not because of lack of action by the community.
I am aware that there are press reports, and statements of people who know people who reported him.
I am asking whether that has been confirmed by the police & security services.
The police are not going to confirm that are they. Neither should they.
The bomber was identified very quickly, and raided promptly.
There certainly was a file on him. He was seemingly considered lower risk (and of course that does not mean zero risk!). Any system of sieving information will produce both false positives and false negatives, but when there is such an obvious false negative a review of the case for lessons learned is very sensible indeed.
If I were May I would hold a rally in the north on Monday and announce an absolute travel ban on all travel to and from Libya and Syria until those nations are returned to stability and freed from ISIS, exceptions only for the media and aid agencies
I wonder how many isis fan boys travel to Syria under the guise of aid.
You could easily get around that by saying only those already registered as aid workers and with full background checks would be allowed to go to those 2 areas
Portillo on the money yet again on This Week. The fuss over social care was not fuss over social care, it was fuss from the middle aged & middle class, angry that the state weren't guaranteeing their inheritance
If I were May I would hold a rally in the north on Monday and announce an absolute travel ban on all travel to and from Libya and Syria until those nations are returned to stability and freed from ISIS, exceptions only for the media and aid agencies
On the basis of one subsample? Not to mention that would be a hugely controversial move which would alienate far more voters than it attracts. It'd be social care x100.
Wrong, a huge 66% of voters with yougov want a ban on Brits visiting Syria without permission being allowed back into the UK. Leftie urban liberals would hate it, everyone else May needs to win would love it
That's different from an outright ban from everyone from those countries. The visa system should be keeping the bad people out from those countries.
It needs to be something drastic and dramatic, end of, BBC news tonight was full of voters saying they had had enough of talk and wanted action, tinkering with visas is not enough, at a bare minimum it needs to be a ban on anyone returning from either Syria or Libya who did not have full clearance before going and could account with evidence for every day of their visit
If I were May I would hold a rally in the north on Monday and announce an absolute travel ban on all travel to and from Libya and Syria until those nations are returned to stability and freed from ISIS, exceptions only for the media and aid agencies
I wonder how many isis fan boys travel to Syria under the guise of aid.
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch
May's policy on fox hunting is identical to Cameron's.
It was stupid to flag it up though.
By answering a direct question? How should she have answered?
As any politician would do,when they don't want to give a direct answer. Which is most of the time. Have you not listened to any political interviews ?
Portillo on the money yet again on This Week. The fuss over social care was not fuss over social care, it was fuss from the middle aged & middle class, angry that the state weren't guaranteeing their inheritance
The polling evidence supports that, May is getting higher support from over 65s than Cameron did with yougov but significantly lower support from the under 50s
Portillo on the money yet again on This Week. The fuss over social care was not fuss over social care, it was fuss from the middle aged & middle class, angry that the state weren't guaranteeing their inheritance
As a poster said earlier on this thread I projected previously a maj of 50. I think now it will be around maj 20 because of an incompetent campaign but we will still win
I wonder how long May would last as Tory leader if she only gets a majority of 20?
Given the inept campaign she's ran, a majority of less than 50 would put her survivability in doubt. Even if she wins, all this election has succeeded in doing is destroying her image of competence.
Still when the Brexit negotiations go wrong, she'll make a useful sacrifice.
The greatest irony would be if there were a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party, and if May's stance on Brexit made it impossible for her to remain prim minister.
The Tories would split before they put a soft Brexiteer in as leader at the moment
And none of the minority parties outside NI would support a hard Brexiteer.
UKIP certainly would, along with as you say the DUP and maybe even 1 or 2 Labour MPs who backed Leave
I meant parties that are going to be represented in parliament, obviously.
The DUP certainly will be, Field and Hoey will likely be re elected and who knows if UKIP will gain S Thanet if more evidence emerges?
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch
May's policy on fox hunting is identical to Cameron's.
It was stupid to flag it up though.
By answering a direct question? How should she have answered?
As any politician would do,when they don't want to give a direct answer. Which is most of the time. Have you not listened to any political interviews ?
No doubt she would have been criticised for that too.
If Corbyn ends up getting close in this election, it will be a terrible indictment of a political system that punishes politicians for being straight, honest and realistic.
So, just been out and chatting to the girls in my office. Posh, privately educated, 26 year old, whom I assumed would be a Tory, is a 100% Corbynista. It seems that all the girls are. Is this a thing? Hmm.
So, just been out and chatting to the girls in my office. Posh, privately educated, 26 year old, whom I assumed would be a Tory, is a 100% Corbynista. It seems that all the girls are. Is this a thing? Hmm.
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch
May's policy on fox hunting is identical to Cameron's.
And May will have to bin a fox hunting bill for exactly the same reasons that Cameron did, so why the hell bother to bring back this toxic and divisive policy? Do you really think that all those new Conservative MPs elected since 2010 are going to welcome this, and even if May was to bind them to it she would be making a mistake.
If I were May I would hold a rally in the north on Monday and announce an absolute travel ban on all travel to and from Libya and Syria until those nations are returned to stability and freed from ISIS, exceptions only for the media and aid agencies
I wonder how many isis fan boys travel to Syria under the guise of aid.
Portillo on the money yet again on This Week. The fuss over social care was not fuss over social care, it was fuss from the middle aged & middle class, angry that the state weren't guaranteeing their inheritance
Yeah, he strongly defended the policy again today.
So, just been out and chatting to the girls in my office. Posh, privately educated, 26 year old, whom I assumed would be a Tory, is a 100% Corbynista. It seems that all the girls are. Is this a thing? Hmm.
It is my experience that the more privately educated a young person has been, the more lefty they are. It's the guilt.
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch
May's policy on fox hunting is identical to Cameron's.
It was stupid to flag it up though.
By answering a direct question? How should she have answered?
As any politician would do,when they don't want to give a direct answer. Which is most of the time. Have you not listened to any political interviews ?
No doubt she would have been criticised for that too.
Unlikely to have made any headlines, though.
It's not an issue I care greatly about either way, but politicians have to think carefully about how they wish to spend their political capital. May recently has given the impression of someone who thinks hers unlimited.
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch
May's policy on fox hunting is identical to Cameron's.
It was stupid to flag it up though.
By answering a direct question? How should she have answered?
As any politician would do,when they don't want to give a direct answer. Which is most of the time. Have you not listened to any political interviews ?
No doubt she would have been criticised for that too.
If Corbyn ends up getting close in this election, it will be a terrible indictment of a political system that punishes politicians for being straight, honest and realistic.
Did you watch TMay's interview with ANeil? She spent 25 minutes avoiding every question.
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch
May's policy on fox hunting is identical to Cameron's.
And May will have to bin a fox hunting bill for exactly the same reasons that Cameron did, so why the hell bother to bring back this toxic and divisive policy?
She was asked a question!!!!
Jesus, I despair. We should not - ever, ever, ever - criticise a politician for giving a straight answer to a direct question. If we do, politicians will never answer questions and we will be worse off.
Portillo on the money yet again on This Week. The fuss over social care was not fuss over social care, it was fuss from the middle aged & middle class, angry that the state weren't guaranteeing their inheritance
Yeah, he strongly defended the policy again today.
Too late it's a complete dud
Trust me this still has the potential to lose May the election. She has to say what the limit on spending is.
Game on, eh? The most significant point is that Corbyn matched May's net favourability rating before the bomb, and although everyone sensible accepts that it was right for Mrs May to have a prominent and statesmanlike role after the bomb, it hasn't really changed things that much, as I think Fox and Big John were the only ones here to predict.
The Labour leadership elections have a lesson here. What happened then was that Corbyn enthused enormous numbers of people with a politely-expressed, positive, change message, and his opponents campaigned almost entirely on the basis that they weren't Corbyn. The perception that his approach only attracted motley Trots is simply mistaken - it had widespread appeal and now he's getting more direct exposure that appeal is extending across the wider electorate. The Tory platform of "do something confusing over social care and otherwise just bash Corbyn" is backfiring badly, and if as reported we are about to have two weeks more Corbyn-bashing it won't work.The Tories need to find a positive reason to vote for them.
Portillo on the money yet again on This Week. The fuss over social care was not fuss over social care, it was fuss from the middle aged & middle class, angry that the state weren't guaranteeing their inheritance
I didn't see it, but - yes he's completely right. They're making lots of noise, but they'll vote conservative anyway when it comes down to it. Bluff 'em.
The best advice for May is to ignore pretty much all of the advice on this thread.
Go full on for the JAM vote.
It's her own party holding her back. This u-turny compromisey approach is actually the most dangerous for her - leaving the ex-Lab/UKIP/JAM C2DE vote unconvinced and reminded she's a tory - and her own side having tasted blood and worried she isn't one of them.
Think through your policy, put it forward with conviction and then demand your party falls into line.
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch
May's policy on fox hunting is identical to Cameron's.
And May will have to bin a fox hunting bill for exactly the same reasons that Cameron did,
Because the SNP will intervene in an England only matter?
If I were May I would hold a rally in the north on Monday and announce an absolute travel ban on all travel to and from Libya and Syria until those nations are returned to stability and freed from ISIS, exceptions only for the media and aid agencies
I wonder how many isis fan boys travel to Syria under the guise of aid.
No. Nothing in there suggests he supports isis. There probably are examples, but not that one.
Young Muslim doctor from East London, charged w helping ISIS abduct John Cantlie, struck off and now making propaganda videos attacking western intervention on YouTube from Syria?
Portillo on the money yet again on This Week. The fuss over social care was not fuss over social care, it was fuss from the middle aged & middle class, angry that the state weren't guaranteeing their inheritance
I didn't see it, but - yes he's completely right. They're making lots of noise, but they'll vote conservative anyway when it comes down to it. Bluff 'em.
The best advice for May is to ignore pretty much all of the advice on this thread.
Go full on for the JAM vote.
It's her own party holding her back. This u-turny compromisey approach is actually the most dangerous for her - leaving the ex-Lab/UKIP/JAM C2DE vote unconvinced and reminded she's a tory - her own side having tasted blood and worried she isn't.
The U-turn was needed to reassure some of those middle aged, it is tougher border control polices and action on terrorists returning from Syria and Libya which will shore up the JAMS
Portillo on the money yet again on This Week. The fuss over social care was not fuss over social care, it was fuss from the middle aged & middle class, angry that the state weren't guaranteeing their inheritance
I didn't see it, but - yes he's completely right. They're making lots of noise, but they'll vote conservative anyway when it comes down to it. Bluff 'em.
The best advice for May is to ignore pretty much all of the advice on this thread.
Go full on for the JAM vote.
It's her own party holding her back. This u-turny compromisey approach is actually the most dangerous for her - leaving the ex-Lab/UKIP/JAM C2DE vote unconvinced and reminded she's a tory - her own side having tasted blood and worried she isn't.
You one of those who'd recommend TM keeps her eye on the vote share rather than the lead? Still in the mid 40s....
Game on, eh? The most significant point is that Corbyn matched May's net favourability rating before the bomb, and although everyone sensible accepts that it was right for Mrs May to have a prominent and statesmanlike role after the bomb, it hasn't really changed things that much, as I think Fox and Big John were the only ones here to predict.
The Labour leadership elections have a lesson here. What happened then was that Corbyn enthused enormous numbers of people with a politely-expressed, positive, change message, and his opponents campaigned almost entirely on the basis that they weren't Corbyn. The perception that his approach only attracted motley Trots is simply mistaken - it had widespread appeal and now he's getting more direct exposure that appeal is extending across the wider electorate. The Tory platform of "do something confusing over social care and otherwise just bash Corbyn" is backfiring badly, and if as reported we are about to have two weeks more Corbyn-bashing it won't work.The Tories need to find a positive reason to vote for them.
Ey up! Check my posts – I also predicted it would change sod all! Admittedly I forecast a Tory landslide prior to the bomb and a landslide after.
Game on, eh? The most significant point is that Corbyn matched May's net favourability rating before the bomb, and although everyone sensible accepts that it was right for Mrs May to have a prominent and statesmanlike role after the bomb, it hasn't really changed things that much, as I think Fox and Big John were the only ones here to predict.
The Labour leadership elections have a lesson here. What happened then was that Corbyn enthused enormous numbers of people with a politely-expressed, positive, change message, and his opponents campaigned almost entirely on the basis that they weren't Corbyn. The perception that his approach only attracted motley Trots is simply mistaken - it had widespread appeal and now he's getting more direct exposure that appeal is extending across the wider electorate. The Tory platform of "do something confusing over social care and otherwise just bash Corbyn" is backfiring badly, and if as reported we are about to have two weeks more Corbyn-bashing it won't work.The Tories need to find a positive reason to vote for them.
The Tories are actually making a small net gain from Labour since 2015 and a small net loss to the LDs, it is Tory gains from UKIP which have slowed in the latest yougov and Corbyn is even picking up a few kippers himself, the Tories do need to find a positive reason to win those voters back ie toughening up rhetoric on young men going to Syria and Libya to fight for ISIS or get trained by ISIS and ensuring that if they do so they are not allowed to return
So, just been out and chatting to the girls in my office. Posh, privately educated, 26 year old, whom I assumed would be a Tory, is a 100% Corbynista. It seems that all the girls are. Is this a thing? Hmm.
It is my experience that the more privately educated a young person has been, the more lefty they are. It's the guilt.
That might well be true @KentRising – a fair point.
So, just been out and chatting to the girls in my office. Posh, privately educated, 26 year old, whom I assumed would be a Tory, is a 100% Corbynista. It seems that all the girls are. Is this a thing? Hmm.
This is encouraging for Con - in the sense that many of these people won't vote on the day if historical precedent stands.
It's a hope - but Corbyn's fired up his base to extreme levels by promising them the earth. Meanwhile, we're counting on the Tory base to stop him ... and May's demoralised them by promising to take away what they have
By the way, one slight shred of hope for the LibDems:
YouGov still has them capturing 8% of the 2015 Lab vote. My guess would be that this is concentrated in Tory/LD marginals, where Labour voters are tactically getting behind them. COULD get them a few gains.
I'm expecting a barrage of polls on Saturday night.
And Mike's busy that night.....
If we see crossover, the site will crash.
Moniker's transformation into a Corbynista is one of the more remarkable developments of this campaign. I dare say THE most remarkable – should be headline news.
Portillo on the money yet again on This Week. The fuss over social care was not fuss over social care, it was fuss from the middle aged & middle class, angry that the state weren't guaranteeing their inheritance
I didn't see it, but - yes he's completely right. They're making lots of noise, but they'll vote conservative anyway when it comes down to it. Bluff 'em.
The best advice for May is to ignore pretty much all of the advice on this thread.
Go full on for the JAM vote.
It's her own party holding her back. This u-turny compromisey approach is actually the most dangerous for her - leaving the ex-Lab/UKIP/JAM C2DE vote unconvinced and reminded she's a tory - her own side having tasted blood and worried she isn't.
The U-turn was needed to reassure some of those middle aged, it is tougher border control polices and action on terrorists returning from Syria and Libya which will shore up the JAMS
The middle aged (in reality, it's more the 50+'s) don't need reassuring. They're going to vote conservative whatever happens.
The JAMs are TM's new constituency that she has to seal the deal with. They need actual jam, which is bloody expensive because there are so many of them.
The jam can only come from her older, wealthier supporters through policies like the dementia tax.
Portillo on the money yet again on This Week. The fuss over social care was not fuss over social care, it was fuss from the middle aged & middle class, angry that the state weren't guaranteeing their inheritance
I didn't see it, but - yes he's completely right. They're making lots of noise, but they'll vote conservative anyway when it comes down to it. Bluff 'em.
The best advice for May is to ignore pretty much all of the advice on this thread.
Go full on for the JAM vote.
It's her own party holding her back. This u-turny compromisey approach is actually the most dangerous for her - leaving the ex-Lab/UKIP/JAM C2DE vote unconvinced and reminded she's a tory - her own side having tasted blood and worried she isn't.
The U-turn was needed to reassure some of those middle aged, it is tougher border control polices and action on terrorists returning from Syria and Libya which will shore up the JAMS
The middle aged (in reality, it's more the 50+'s) don't need reassuring. They're going to vote conservative whatever happens.
The JAMs are TM's new constituency that she has to seal the deal with. They need actual jam, which is bloody expensive because there are so many of them.
The jam can only come from her older, wealthier supporters through policies like the dementia tax.
There is no more jam to give them, they already have a higher living wage, a raised threshold for the basic rate etc, what they want is tougher border controls, that has to be the focus for the Tories now
Portillo on the money yet again on This Week. The fuss over social care was not fuss over social care, it was fuss from the middle aged & middle class, angry that the state weren't guaranteeing their inheritance
I didn't see it, but - yes he's completely right. They're making lots of noise, but they'll vote conservative anyway when it comes down to it. Bluff 'em.
The best advice for May is to ignore pretty much all of the advice on this thread.
Go full on for the JAM vote.
It's her own party holding her back. This u-turny compromisey approach is actually the most dangerous for her - leaving the ex-Lab/UKIP/JAM C2DE vote unconvinced and reminded she's a tory - her own side having tasted blood and worried she isn't.
You one of those who'd recommend TM keeps her eye on the vote share rather than the lead? Still in the mid 40s....
Game on, eh? The most significant point is that Corbyn matched May's net favourability rating before the bomb, and although everyone sensible accepts that it was right for Mrs May to have a prominent and statesmanlike role after the bomb, it hasn't really changed things that much, as I think Fox and Big John were the only ones here to predict.
The Labour leadership elections have a lesson here. What happened then was that Corbyn enthused enormous numbers of people with a politely-expressed, positive, change message, and his opponents campaigned almost entirely on the basis that they weren't Corbyn. The perception that his approach only attracted motley Trots is simply mistaken - it had widespread appeal and now he's getting more direct exposure that appeal is extending across the wider electorate. The Tory platform of "do something confusing over social care and otherwise just bash Corbyn" is backfiring badly, and if as reported we are about to have two weeks more Corbyn-bashing it won't work.The Tories need to find a positive reason to vote for them.
The Tories are actually making a small net gain from Labour since 2015 and a small net loss to the LDs, it is Tory gains from UKIP which have slowed in the latest yougov and Corbyn is even picking up a few kippers himself, the Tories do need to find a positive reason to win those voters back ie toughening up rhetoric on young men going to Syria and Libya to fight for ISIS or get trained by ISIS and ensuring that if they do so they are not allowed to return
It's some of the northern UKIP vote going back to Labour; they want Brexit but they also like a bit of nationalisation as well.
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!
But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.
Yep - the new consensus is that the state is a force for good. May has to deliver.
Indeed. May's sycophants can't see it, but this is a disaster for the Tory party. Big state Conservatives. Whatever next.
It's called power. Right wing libertarians have never experienced it because it goes down like a bucket of cold sick.
I prefer Max's libertarian politics, given a forced choice. Your brand of spending on meddling is the chilled vomit to which you allude. From a leftie POV, if we are going to spend taxpayers' money, let's put public services into public hands, not shovel it all on nanny state snooping.
(That all said you are a good bloke – nothing personal, @Mortimer)
The Tories are actually making a small net gain from Labour since 2015 and a small net loss to the LDs, it is Tory gains from UKIP which have slowed in the latest yougov and Corbyn is even picking up a few kippers himself, the Tories do need to find a positive reason to win those voters back ie toughening up rhetoric on young men going to Syria and Libya to fight for ISIS or get trained by ISIS and ensuring that if they do so they are not allowed to return
This is a slightly delicate operation because if they push the UKIP themes too far, they risk their UKIP switchers going back to UKIP. (Where they're running.)
Lovely jubbly, a big narrowing of the polls for the media to get hysterically stuck into, and which will now embolden the Labour Leadership. Those claims by opponents that May was heading for a North Korean level majority are now going to look a bit hollow too, suddenly the polls would indicate that the result is not cut and dried. I now expect a ramping up of the threat of a 'coalition of chaos' which could put our Brexit negociations, among other things, at risk.
I have made no secret from day one that I am not a big fan of Theresa May, and I have also raised doubts about her Leadership style. Right now I suggest that the campaign team don't panic, and keep to their strategy campaign grid. But once the GE is done and dusted, then changes need to be made, May has got to find herself a George Osborne figure within her Cabinet who is going to have her back, but also be able to stand up to her and be prepared to disagree with her when needed, and fast! And she has got to make sure that she starts becoming more of a team player in her own Cabinet, and she allows that Osborne figure to have clear seniority over that non elected clique that May has surrounded herself with and bunckered down with for years on vital issues of policy etc. May needs to have a reshuffle fast, and she needs to replace a lot of the underperformers in her Cabinet with some of the real talent she unceremonously booted back to the backbenches when she became Leader.
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch, and both these issues were certainly registering negatively with a few folk I know. And these are the kind of mistakes that could have been avoided had May had a more diverse and talented pool of Cabinet Ministers she actually engaged with and kept in the loop. And finally, cooking up a manifesto of policies with your unelected inner clique and then expecting your elected Cabinet or backbenchers to go out and sell them in the media and on the doorsteps without proper consultation is a recipe for disaster.
Way back when May became Leader she immediately brought up bringing back grammar schools, next thing, her Education Minister is not available for QuestionTime and a recently sacked junior Minister who clearly doesn't agree with the policy is then left loyally trying to bat this toxic issue away. May now needs to start practicing within her own Cabinet the same kind of trusted 'devolved' working relationship she has developed with Ruth Davidson. I worry that May and her clique deliberately filled her Cabinet, not with a pool of Conservative Ministerial talent, but only those that were never in danger of setting the heather on fire and therefore outshining her...
This is encouraging for Con - in the sense that many of these people won't vote on the day if historical precedent stands.
It's a hope - but Corbyn's fired up his base to extreme levels by promising them the earth. Meanwhile, we're counting on the Tory base to stop him ... and May's demoralised them by promising to take away what they have
Time to start looking at some of the attractive seat markets for potential Labour gains from Tories, lads!
I'd start with Battersea; the poll earlier today had them only 8% behind as of 10th May, at a time when Labour were still 16-18% behind in the national polls.
Brighton Kemptown is an obvious one IMO. Labour needs a 1% swing, and 10% voted LibDem or Green last time. And if you had to pick a couple of places where Corbyn has an obvious appeal, they'd be Brighton and Cambridge.
Contrary argument is that there was also a UKIP candidate who got 8%, and Labour did work it really hard last time already.
Lovely jubbly, a big narrowing of the polls for the media to get hysterically stuck into, and which will now embolden the Labour Leadership. Those claims by opponents that May was heading for a North Korean level majority are now going to look a bit hollow too, suddenly the polls would indicate that the result is not cut and dried. I now expect a ramping up of the threat of a 'coalition of chaos' which could put our Brexit negociations, among other things, at risk.
I have made no secret from day one that I am not a big fan of Theresa May, and I have also raised doubts about her Leadership style. Right now I suggest that the campaign team don't panic, and keep to their strategy campaign grid. But once the GE is done and dusted, then changes need to be made, May has got to find herself a George Osborne figure within her Cabinet who is going to have her back, but also be able to stand up to her and be prepared to disagree with her when needed, and fast! And she has got to make sure that she starts becoming more of a team player in her own Cabinet, and she allows that Osborne figure to have clear seniority over that non elected clique that May has surrounded herself with and bunckered down with for years on vital issues of policy etc. May needs to have a reshuffle fast, and she needs to replace a lot of the underperformers in her Cabinet with some of the real talent she unceremonously booted back to the backbenches when she became Leader.
snip
Way back when May became Leader she immediately brought up bringing back grammar schools, next thing, her Education Minister is not available for QuestionTime and a recently sacked junior Minister who clearly doesn't agree with the policy is then left loyally trying to bat this toxic issue away. May now needs to start practicing within her own Cabinet the same kind of trusted 'devolved' working relationship she has developed with Ruth Davidson. I worry that May and her clique deliberately filled her Cabinet, not with a pool of Conservative Ministerial talent, but only those that were never in danger of setting the heather on fire and therefore outshining her...
TLDR
Sorry @fitalass – drunk and impatient. Have now read. Good post! Apologies.
Time to start looking at some of the attractive seat markets for potential Labour gains from Tories, lads!
I'd start with Battersea; the poll earlier today had them only 8% behind as of 10th May, at a time when Labour were still 16-18% behind in the national polls.
Brighton Kemptown is an obvious one IMO. Labour needs a 1% swing, and 10% voted LibDem or Green last time. And if you had to pick a couple of places where Corbyn has an obvious appeal, they'd be Brighton and Cambridge.
Contrary argument is that there was also a UKIP candidate who got 8%, and Labour did work it really hard last time already.
As it's late at night, and Shadsy is probably asleep, I'll agree that Cambridge and Brighton Kemptown look like value.
Right good night all, time to retire. And unexpected development, coming back from the pub to see this poll. May has a fortnight to sort it out, but Corbyn is completely out campaigning her, so far. Let's see how he goes on tomorrow, at the Neil interview.
Key piece of info now is total electorate vs total electorate at 2016 EU Ref and 2015 GE.
If up by significant amount (say at the very least 1m, and probably more like 1.5m+) then implies many more young people have registered and young turnout (as % of population) may well be up significantly - favouring Lab.
But if electorate isn't up significantly - implies young turnout won't be up - implying Matt Singh analysis more likely to hold.
As the weeks go on, it's looking more and more like a mistake calling the election. Nobody was baying for one, indeed the mood in the country was probably best encapsulated by Brenda in Bristol. May was queen of all she surveyed in her party and it was all about getting down to the tough work of Brexit. Calling that election? It was suddenly leaving the door ajar to events dear boy, and an electorate not entirely predictable, as shown by the 2015 GE and Ref 2016. She should have just left well alone.
Comments
That had been replaced by vitriol towards her for wanting to steal my house pre Manchester.
Out for first time tomorrow post Manchester but colleagues tell me today was very positive for LAB.
Given the inept campaign she's ran, a majority of less than 50 would put her survivability in doubt. Even if she wins, all this election has succeeded in doing is destroying her image of competence.
Still when the Brexit negotiations go wrong, she'll make a useful sacrifice.
It is only sensible to have a case review to learn lessons. Clearly the security services misjudged the risk. Wise to learn the lessons.
I just have less than a grand on Tories under 399.5 at EVS
I have made no secret from day one that I am not a big fan of Theresa May, and I have also raised doubts about her Leadership style. Right now I suggest that the campaign team don't panic, and keep to their strategy campaign grid. But once the GE is done and dusted, then changes need to be made, May has got to find herself a George Osborne figure within her Cabinet who is going to have her back, but also be able to stand up to her and be prepared to disagree with her when needed, and fast! And she has got to make sure that she starts becoming more of a team player in her own Cabinet, and she allows that Osborne figure to have clear seniority over that non elected clique that May has surrounded herself with and bunckered down with for years on vital issues of policy etc. May needs to have a reshuffle fast, and she needs to replace a lot of the underperformers in her Cabinet with some of the real talent she unceremonously booted back to the backbenches when she became Leader.
I was worried even before the social care policy was announced, grammar schools and foxhunting are simple toxic is large parts of the UK? There was a very good reason that Cameron kicked those two policies out of touch, and both these issues were certainly registering negatively with a few folk I know. And these are the kind of mistakes that could have been avoided had May had a more diverse and talented pool of Cabinet Ministers she actually engaged with and kept in the loop. And finally, cooking up a manifesto of policies with your unelected inner clique and then expecting your elected Cabinet or backbenchers to go out and sell them in the media and on the doorsteps without proper consultation is a recipe for disaster.
Way back when May became Leader she immediately brought up bringing back grammar schools, next thing, her Education Minister is not available for QuestionTime and a recently sacked junior Minister who clearly doesn't agree with the policy is then left loyally trying to bat this toxic issue away. May now needs to start practicing within her own Cabinet the same kind of trusted 'devolved' working relationship she has developed with Ruth Davidson. I worry that May and her clique deliberately filled her Cabinet, not with a pool of Conservative Ministerial talent, but only those that were never in danger of setting the heather on fire and therefore outshining her...
Did anyone see the video clip of Donald Trump brusquely pushing aside the Prime Minister of Montenegro in order to place himself in prime position? Even more bizarre was the "Il Duce" expression of self satisfaction on his face, having done so.
Quite apart from his appallingly bad manners, one was forced to seriously question his sanity.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Trump+Montenegro
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/867848549127553024?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4967/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-tonight-s-one-local-by-election/p1
That is a different question from could more have been done to prevent the attack. (in my view I think the security forces missed key chances, but there should be a review).
Or at least that's what the Times said a few days back.
Interestingly, he used to work for Legal & General, which might suggest a certain motivation behind the idea...
There certainly was a file on him. He was seemingly considered lower risk (and of course that does not mean zero risk!). Any system of sieving information will produce both false positives and false negatives, but when there is such an obvious false negative a review of the case for lessons learned is very sensible indeed.
https://youtu.be/blGKFC0tA_w
Have you not listened to any political interviews ?
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/07/meet-the-new-team-at-number-ten.html
Did anyone here actually know he was director of the No 10 policy unit ?
If Corbyn ends up getting close in this election, it will be a terrible indictment of a political system that punishes politicians for being straight, honest and realistic.
It's not an issue I care greatly about either way, but politicians have to think carefully about how they wish to spend their political capital. May recently has given the impression of someone who thinks hers unlimited.
Jesus, I despair. We should not - ever, ever, ever - criticise a politician for giving a straight answer to a direct question. If we do, politicians will never answer questions and we will be worse off.
I'm off to bed. Enough of this pathetic crap.
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/867872076706795520
Trust me this still has the potential to lose May the election. She has to say what the limit on spending is.
Clue anything over 100k and it reeks
The Labour leadership elections have a lesson here. What happened then was that Corbyn enthused enormous numbers of people with a politely-expressed, positive, change message, and his opponents campaigned almost entirely on the basis that they weren't Corbyn. The perception that his approach only attracted motley Trots is simply mistaken - it had widespread appeal and now he's getting more direct exposure that appeal is extending across the wider electorate. The Tory platform of "do something confusing over social care and otherwise just bash Corbyn" is backfiring badly, and if as reported we are about to have two weeks more Corbyn-bashing it won't work.The Tories need to find a positive reason to vote for them.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867838593548603393
Crossover 10 days away at the most.
The best advice for May is to ignore pretty much all of the advice on this thread.
Go full on for the JAM vote.
It's her own party holding her back. This u-turny compromisey approach is actually the most dangerous for her - leaving the ex-Lab/UKIP/JAM C2DE vote unconvinced and reminded she's a tory - and her own side having tasted blood and worried she isn't one of them.
Think through your policy, put it forward with conviction and then demand your party falls into line.
Whatever you do, don't bloody u-turn.
That might well be true @KentRising – a fair point.
YouGov still has them capturing 8% of the 2015 Lab vote. My guess would be that this is concentrated in Tory/LD marginals, where Labour voters are tactically getting behind them. COULD get them a few gains.
The JAMs are TM's new constituency that she has to seal the deal with. They need actual jam, which is bloody expensive because there are so many of them.
The jam can only come from her older, wealthier supporters through policies like the dementia tax.
(That all said you are a good bloke – nothing personal, @Mortimer)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcfgflapq2/TimesResults_170525_VI_Trackers_Terrorism_W.pdf
Contrary argument is that there was also a UKIP candidate who got 8%, and Labour did work it really hard last time already.
Goodnight.
If up by significant amount (say at the very least 1m, and probably more like 1.5m+) then implies many more young people have registered and young turnout (as % of population) may well be up significantly - favouring Lab.
But if electorate isn't up significantly - implies young turnout won't be up - implying Matt Singh analysis more likely to hold.