Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!
Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!
If this polls turns out accurate, TMay won't have the MPs to do ANYTHING. It's gonna be chaos. I wonder if we will even Brexit. If the Soft Brexit/Remain MPs in the Commons unite, they could scupper everything she tries to do, until she yields.
That would at least be a positive outcome for the country.
A month ago, Mrs May had a circa 50% lead over Corbyn in the net favourability ratings.
Now that lead is circa 15%.
She's lost 35% in a month.
This is surely the key - people are often saying 'ignore headline voting intention, look at the leadership and economy ratings'. Well if it is not a walkover on that anymore, then I guess it won't be a landslide to May.
Goddamnit, I've got bets on Labour performing what seemed like optimistically a few weeks ago, now I'm in danger of losing our for being pessimistic!
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
To be honest Max, the more you moan the more popular Mrs May is in Lab/Tory marginals.
The Tory party is greater than Mayfair he shies and low tax libertarians...
You are completely and utterly blinkered. I have no idea why. We've gone from a 20+ point lead to a 5 point lead. All since Theresa released Timothy's manifesto. These policies are a disaster for our party. We are not the party of energy caps, higher taxes on risk takers or property theft. Fighting this battle on Ed Miliband's turf is a disaster. Theresa needs to beg Oliver Letwin's to come back and rewrite the manifesto over the long weekend and re-reveal it on Tuesday.
I guess you're doing as much campaigning with real voters as I am, right?
Seriously Max, get out of your hedgie bubble, talk to voters in Lab/Con marginals. You will sleep an awful lot better.
Hard to campaign from Zurich!
You're buying you're head in the sand. It's time to get back to our roots and stop bloody fannying about with this SDP rubbish.
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
So where does increasing the minimum amount to be left from 24k to 100k fit in with this analysis? Or does analysys fail you when discussing Mrs May? I am left thinking you prefer Abbotts way with figures.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!
Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!
And what are we now my right-wing friend? The Tories have doomed us all over the last 2 years!
Austerity and pain for the masses while the rich and powerful get away with it?
Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
So where does increasing the minimum amount to be left from 24k to 100k fit in with this analysis? Or does analysys fail you when discussing Mrs May? I am left thinking you prefer Abbotts way with figures.
The data shows that there has been an improvement in the figures for both Theresa May and the Conservatives, while Labour and Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers have dipped slightly. But notably, Theresa May and the Conservatives’ favourability ratings have not returned to their previous, higher levels and Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s ratings have not fallen to their previous, lower levels.
A blip has meant that the Tory fall and Labour rise halted and reversed very slightly, and presumably the new normal means the fall and rise will resume soon.
Ultimately Brexit was won on a manifesto of anti- free market, protectionism and sweeties for all with someone else paying. No surprise that after being told the economy isn't important people are going for Corbyn.
It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.
Would you accept that Corbyn appears to be doing better than you expected? What would you see as an impressive result for Corbyn (I know you don't like him - but what do you think he should be pleased with?)
More seats than Ed. If he does that, he stays and will be vindicated.
What about more seats than Ed but larger Tory majority?
Possible because of SNP losses to Tories.
It's ironic actually that one of the key arguments for Corbyn electability was that left wing policies were needed in Scotland. That doesn't seem to have worked out.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
Twitter last time, then betting odds, now polls. I can readily believe it
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
And YouGov is the easiest to influence.
I find it hard to believe they are that easily influenced.
I see the others are down two to 6% - does that mean the SNP are doing badly in this poll?
Considering that they accounted for almost 5% of the total vote last time it along with the Greens on almost 4% plus 1% for PC + others it shows either the SNP or the Greens are polling very poorly and the Green lack of candidates will see their share fall off quite a bit anyway. It might be that Labour are getting back a few voters from the SNP as well as the Greens in Scotland (Corbyn is not viewed so negatively by the Scottish public as down south) which could make a couple more seats interesting in Scotland outside the challenges of the LDs and Tories to the Nats.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You d
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that.
Well frankly I hope you are right. I don't care for a massive Tory majority, but a Labour surge is not helpful right now, with them in the grip of Corbynism, and a Tory landslide would be preferable to no change or even, gods forbid, a Labour win right now. I'd have preferred a LD surge, but there you go.
Although it must be pointed out 'the polls are rigged' has been the Corbynista rallying cry for ages.
Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
I'm a lefty
Timothy isn't a leftie.
Lefties generally aren't for bringing back grammars for a start.
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!
But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
We'll see what the phone polls say.
I'm generally not convinced yougov has been *infiltrated* or whatever. Yougov know huge amounts about their panel and will be going out of their way to get a representative sample.
They aren't idiots.
It's a comfortable explanation for those who dislike corbyn - With respect, I'll disregard it for betting purposes.
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
Housing and debts as well.
Although these issues affect people the more the younger they are.
I think people are perhaps a little high on GE news at the moment and need to take a day or two to calm down, that is what I am doing. Plus spending some of my unexpected payrise. See you in a few days everyone....(not that I expect anyone to notice, but I need the ego boost).
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
I'm a lefty
Timothy isn't a leftie.
Lefties generally aren't for bringing back grammars for a start.
People do not fit easily on a left right spectrum. I don't know about this chap - for starter's May decides whether to include things, so she believes these offerings too - but it is quite possible for someone to support, say, Grammars, while simultaneously holding very far left views in other areas. Unusual, perhaps, ideologically inconsistent, perhaps, but people don't fit into holes.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
We'll see what the phone polls say.
I'm generally not convinced yougov has been *infiltrated* or whatever. Yougov know huge amounts about their panel and will be going out of their way to get a representative sample.
They aren't idiots.
They are not idiots, but all the polling companies are somewhat desperate for those to answer their surveys. There has been a noticeable decline in enthusiasm so volunteers are welcome and, given the sizes, it does not take too many to influence the numbers.
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!
But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.
If Tories fight Corbyn purely on a laissez-faire platform Corbyn could even win, they need to hammer home immigration, crime and law and order which is where the voters want a more rightwing agenda
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!
But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.
Yep - the new consensus is that the state is a force for good. May has to deliver.
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.
Troublesome thing for the Tories is it looks like bad news just keeps dripping out. I cannot see them getting back to leads in the mid 10s, they are shooting for double figures at best - which would be sizable for them, but very far down on what they thought they'd get after the first week.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...
...or am I just clutching at straws?
It's vastly more likely that the polls are just wrong. They've overestimated students voting or shy tories or something like that. I'd cling on to that rather than conspiracy if I were you?
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
I'm a lefty
Timothy isn't a leftie.
Lefties generally aren't for bringing back grammars for a start.
The Tories had a big poll lead after their grammars policy, a plurality of voters back it and a majority of Tories, a few more grammars is not the problem, indeed Cameron suffered his biggest fall in the polls in opposition when he came out against grammars
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.
Yep - his unequivocal backing for Brexit is a disaster for them.
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
It's not hope, it's a fantasy. Unfortunately people are going for that fantasy.
The data shows that there has been an improvement in the figures for both Theresa May and the Conservatives, while Labour and Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers have dipped slightly. But notably, Theresa May and the Conservatives’ favourability ratings have not returned to their previous, higher levels and Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s ratings have not fallen to their previous, lower levels.
A blip has meant that the Tory fall and Labour rise halted and reversed very slightly, and presumably the new normal means the fall and rise will resume soon.
But the Con lead of 5% is after that turnaround in favour of Con.
On 22 May, Con lead would probably have been about 2%.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
We'll see what the phone polls say.
I'm generally not convinced yougov has been *infiltrated* or whatever. Yougov know huge amounts about their panel and will be going out of their way to get a representative sample.
They aren't idiots.
It's a comfortable explanation for those who dislike corbyn - With respect, I'll disregard it for betting purposes.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...
...or am I just clutching at straws?
It's vastly more likely that the polls are just wrong. They've overestimated students voting or something like that. I'd cling on to that rather than conspiracy if I were you?
It's even more likely that the polls are right at this moment. TM really isn't very good.
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.
Yep - his unequivocal backing for Brexit is a disaster for them.
Nah - but offering everyone free university places (or is he going to cap places?) and beefing up union powers means IMF bailout like the 70s...
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!
But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.
Yep - the new consensus is that the state is a force for good. May has to deliver.
Indeed. May's sycophants can't see it, but this is a disaster for the Tory party. Big state Conservatives. Whatever next.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...
...or am I just clutching at straws?
It's vastly more likely that the polls are just wrong. They've overestimated students voting or shy tories or something like that. I'd cling on to that rather than conspiracy if I were you?
I don't know if it's fair to call it conspiracy; Momentum definitely did suggest influencing betting markets at least. But it's not likely I grant you.
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.
Ultimately Brexit was won on a manifesto of anti- free market, protectionism and sweeties for all with someone else paying. No surprise that after being told the economy isn't important people are going for Corbyn.
Corbyn would be a disaster as PM but I have to say I would find it hilarious if rich free market Leavers found that far from Brexit turning us into Singapore it turned us into Venezuela instead!!
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
May needs to announce tax cuts now! Yes. it will be seen as panicking, but it will work. Rather then this home-snatching rubbish. Does she not know who her base is! She should be at 47/48% against Corbyn and he shouldn't anywhere near 38%.
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!
But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.
Yep - the new consensus is that the state is a force for good. May has to deliver.
Indeed. May's sycophants can't see it, but this is a disaster for the Tory party. Big state Conservatives. Whatever next.
It's called power. Right wing libertarians have never experienced it because it goes down like a bucket of cold sick.
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
The second wobble is always better than the first
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...
...or am I just clutching at straws?
It's vastly more likely that the polls are just wrong. They've overestimated students voting or shy tories or something like that. I'd cling on to that rather than conspiracy if I were you?
I don't know if it's fair to call it conspiracy; Momentum definitely did suggest influencing betting markets at least. But it's not likely I grant you.
Betting markets aren't very pro Corbyn are they? I was referring to the infiltration of polling companies which seems far fetched to me.
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!). Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes. Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message. Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change. Pro-Leave people ought to get that. Still think majority of 100 for May. However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.
You keep telling yourself that rubbish. May is legitimising Corbyn. That's why Labour are surging, along with frankly stupid policies like house theft.
I see the others are down two to 6% - does that mean the SNP are doing badly in this poll?
Considering that they accounted for almost 5% of the total vote last time it along with the Greens on almost 4% plus 1% for PC + others it shows either the SNP or the Greens are polling very poorly and the Green lack of candidates will see their share fall off quite a bit anyway. It might be that Labour are getting back a few voters from the SNP as well as the Greens in Scotland (Corbyn is not viewed so negatively by the Scottish public as down south) which could make a couple more seats interesting in Scotland outside the challenges of the LDs and Tories to the Nats.
Indeed I have been poking about in seats where SNP are in a 2 horse race with SLAB, and where Corbynism may well be popular. Parts of Glasgow for example. There were massive SNP surges before in 2015, but are they fading?
Comments
Goddamnit, I've got bets on Labour performing what seemed like optimistically a few weeks ago, now I'm in danger of losing our for being pessimistic!
You're buying you're head in the sand. It's time to get back to our roots and stop bloody fannying about with this SDP rubbish.
Austerity and pain for the masses while the rich and powerful get away with it?
Implies almost certainly that Con lead would have been even lower on 22 May.
But it does look like Corbyn is going to keep control of Labour.
No pro Tory propaganda from me.
A blip has meant that the Tory fall and Labour rise halted and reversed very slightly, and presumably the new normal means the fall and rise will resume soon.
Ultimately Brexit was won on a manifesto of anti- free market, protectionism and sweeties for all with someone else paying. No surprise that after being told the economy isn't important people are going for Corbyn.
Hmm. I'll re-evaluate when we have more polls.
Possible because of SNP losses to Tories.
It's ironic actually that one of the key arguments for Corbyn electability was that left wing policies were needed in Scotland. That doesn't seem to have worked out.
It was an utterly shit manifesto
He was the one who kept asking for more polls.
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
It might be that Labour are getting back a few voters from the SNP as well as the Greens in Scotland (Corbyn is not viewed so negatively by the Scottish public as down south) which could make a couple more seats interesting in Scotland outside the challenges of the LDs and Tories to the Nats.
Although it must be pointed out 'the polls are rigged' has been the Corbynista rallying cry for ages.
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/867675624709660672
Timothy isn't a leftie.
Lefties generally aren't for bringing back grammars for a start.
...or am I just clutching at straws?
I'm generally not convinced yougov has been *infiltrated* or whatever. Yougov know huge amounts about their panel and will be going out of their way to get a representative sample.
They aren't idiots.
It's a comfortable explanation for those who dislike corbyn - With respect, I'll disregard it for betting purposes.
I'll give you a clue - it wasn't our man in Zurich.
And Mike's busy that night, which means I'm editing PB, and we all know what that means.
I'm calling it now, we'll have a poll with Labour ahead on Saturday night.
Although these issues affect people the more the younger they are.
See you in a few days everyone....(not that I expect anyone to notice, but I need the ego boost).
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/03/21/fresh-polling-shows-britain-doesn-t-want-a-hard-brexit -
I wonder what movement we might see in the polls if the final stages of the campaign were dominated by the hard vs soft argument.
Will Labour use it? Or perhaps UKIP?
Plays the strong, silent card which initially polls well but is then found out when voters realise they actually have a tin ear and can't connect.
But she'll still best Corbyn because geography.
They're going to have armed guards on trains? They could operate the doors.
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On 22 May, Con lead would probably have been about 2%.
I was referring to the infiltration of polling companies which seems far fetched to me.