politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov has CON lead BELOW what it was at GE2015
Comments
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The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.0
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Much as I would like to avoid a Tory victory, I think some Tory posters are getting ahead of themselves here.
I find it extremely hard to envisage anything slimmer than a 10, 20, 30 - 40 seat Tory majority at the very least.0 -
See Brexit. Having your cake and eating it is the new normal. Wages will go up, spending will go up, taxes will go down, immigration will fall, Britain will lead the world, the EU will give us what we want. The voters have the taste for rejecting reality.kle4 said:
It's not hope, it's a fantasy. Unfortunately people are going for that fantasy.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
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Doesn't matter. Fantasy is still better than misery! Much better!!kle4 said:
It's not hope, it's a fantasy. Unfortunately people are going for that fantasy.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
(If only Labour had a decent leader, the election would be in the bag now. Instead they have Corbyn!)0 -
Don't upset the RoonsMarqueeMark said:In two weeks, the count at Sunderland will be racing to prove that YouGov is Roguey McRogueface.....
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I hope Michael Lewis writes a vanity fair article about the irrational inexuberance of PBTories.MaxPB said:
You keep telling yourself that rubbish. May is legitimising Corbyn. That's why Labour are surging, along with frankly stupid policies like house theft.Mortimer said:
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
It would be fascinating.0 -
Oh dear, Mrs. May: What have you done?0
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Since when have I ever said we should have a right wing libertarian policy platform? I might believe in in personally but I know it will never win. I just don't think we need to become the party of Ed Miliband in order to win. We literally could have printed a one page manifesto with the words "Brexit means Brexit" on it several times and we would have won. But May and Timothy are a bunch of SDP tossers who want to extend the state into every facet of people's lives whether they like it or not. No thanks.Mortimer said:
It's called power. Right wing libertarians have never experienced it because it goes down like a bucket of cold sick.MaxPB said:
Indeed. May's sycophants can't see it, but this is a disaster for the Tory party. Big state Conservatives. Whatever next.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - the new consensus is that the state is a force for good. May has to deliver.MaxPB said:
But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.HYUFD said:
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!SeanT said:
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.0 -
Yougov tables now out, Tories still making a small net gain from Labour, 9% of 2015 Labour voters voting Tory and 7% of 2015 Tories voting Labour. Labour gains are almost all coming from 2015 LDs, 35% of whom are now voting Labour and also Corbyn is now winning 13% of 2015 UKIP voters, with 55% going Tory
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcfgflapq2/TimesResults_170525_VI_Trackers_Terrorism_W.pdf0 -
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....blueblue said:The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Snigger.0 -
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Mortimer - I want quite desperately to believe you, but the polls aren't lying - there ain't no fucking landslide here.Mortimer said:
I hope Michael Lewis writes a vanity fair article about the irrational inexuberance of PBTories.MaxPB said:
You keep telling yourself that rubbish. May is legitimising Corbyn. That's why Labour are surging, along with frankly stupid policies like house theft.Mortimer said:
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
It would be fascinating.0 -
If Corbyn takes Labour forward, clearly people like me will have been proved wrong. I don't think I will be. And I think I'll turn out to be right about Mrs May, too.kle4 said:Labour seats with 10000 majorities under threat my arse. The Labour moderates and sceptics will be smashed if these latest scores are even close.
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Is the correct analogy for this election Attlee in 1945?
How did Churchill, a war hero, the very definition of a strong, stable leader, lose, after leading the UK to victory against the Germans?
People wanted change.
Their wartime experience had taught them that society was broken and looking after your fellow man was more important than anything else. They were tired of war. They wanted to see society transformed.
2017 isn't an exact analogy, but in many respects leavers have "won" the war against the EU. But many believe society is still broken.
Brexit was as much a vote against the inequities of the neo-liberal consensus and the way living standards have declined sharply for the poorest members of our society.
We've seen a decade of austerity. People haven't forgotten that it was the bankers who were bailed out, too big to fail.
For over 30 years we've always been told "There is no alternative," over and over and over again.
Well, now there is an alternative. Jeremy Corbyn. A radical alternative who promises to reshape society and make it fairer for all.
If Brexit was actually a protest vote agaisnt neo-liberalism, against the rising inequality in society, as well as the feeling that 'whoever you vote for, they're all part of the same establishment', isn't Corbyn the perfect candidate to tap into those votes?
What does Theresa May promise? Fox hunting, home snatching, more austerity, more slow, managed decline.
Have we gone from TINA to TITA, to "THIS is the alternative" and his name is Jeremy Corbyn?
Will Manchester make people even more convinced that now is the time for compassion, for fairness, for change?
The Brexit war is won - will the war on the home front be an Attlee style realignment, if not now then in 2022?
It's the only rational explanation I can think of for Labour's sustained surge in the polls.0 -
Tories lead by a whopping 67% to 19% with over 65s but Labour lead by a large 59% to 22% with 18 to 24s
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcfgflapq2/TimesResults_170525_VI_Trackers_Terrorism_W.pdf0 -
How about this for total drama and chaos?
Hung parliament. Both TM and JC face simultaneous leadership challenges.0 -
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Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.0
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Speak to people who are campaigning in Con Lab marginals.blueblue said:
Mortimer - I want quite desperately to believe you, but the polls aren't lying - there ain't no fucking landslide here.Mortimer said:
I hope Michael Lewis writes a vanity fair article about the irrational inexuberance of PBTories.MaxPB said:
You keep telling yourself that rubbish. May is legitimising Corbyn. That's why Labour are surging, along with frankly stupid policies like house theft.Mortimer said:
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
It would be fascinating.
You'll sleep a lot easier.
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Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.Mortimer said:
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....blueblue said:The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Snigger.0 -
It's Crap versus Crap for the Crap cup!SouthamObserver said:
If Corbyn takes Labour forward, clearly people like me will have been proved wrong. I don't think I will be. And I think I'll turn out to be right about Mrs May, too.kle4 said:Labour seats with 10000 majorities under threat my arse. The Labour moderates and sceptics will be smashed if these latest scores are even close.
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Tory lead lower with ABC1s, 41% to 38%, than it is with C2DEs, 45% to 37%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcfgflapq2/TimesResults_170525_VI_Trackers_Terrorism_W.pdf0 -
On the spread markets. Sporting are being very sporting with unchanged prices:
Tory: 384 - 390
Lab : 172 - 178
Spreadex have suspended their markets.
If you believe this latest poll, Hills' 326 - 350 Tory seats looks like very fair value at 10/1.
But DYOR.0 -
The cabinet.The_Apocalypse said:0 -
Not you too?Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, Mrs. May: What have you done?
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If a survey has 1500 respondents, let's say, then a 100 people influx can have a disproportionate impact on numbers very very quickly. It really does not take that many people to change the numbers. And you only have to see the reaction on here to see it can have an effect.rkrkrk said:
Betting markets aren't very pro Corbyn are they?Essexit said:
I don't know if it's fair to call it conspiracy; Momentum definitely did suggest influencing betting markets at least. But it's not likely I grant you.rkrkrk said:
It's vastly more likely that the polls are just wrong. They've overestimated students voting or shy tories or something like that. I'd cling on to that rather than conspiracy if I were you?Essexit said:
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
...or am I just clutching at straws?
I was referring to the infiltration of polling companies which seems far fetched to me.
You have to remember the ad hoc part of the market research industry, which is essentially what these polling companies are in, are under a lot of pressure, costs have been cut significantly and, quite frankly, standards are likely to have dropped.-1 -
"Marxists get up early to further their cause. We need to get up even earlier to defend our freedom."blueblue said:The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
- M. H. Thatcher, 1978.0 -
This is all well and good, but wasn't it true 6 months ago too. Poll leads were big then.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.0 -
Naturally, but that is pretty pathetic considering how they got their hopes up, and problematic for those who want Corbyn out.WhisperingOracle said:Much as I would like to avoid a Tory victory, I think some Tory posters are getting ahead of themselves here.
I find it extremely hard to envisage anything slimmer than a 10, 20, 30 - 40 seat Tory majority at the very least.0 -
Labour lead in London by 48% to 36% and the North by 48% to 37%. The Tories lead in the South by 51% to 30% and the Midlands/Wales by 46% to 39%. In Scotland though the Tories have hit 30% with the SNP on 41% and Labour on 22%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcfgflapq2/TimesResults_170525_VI_Trackers_Terrorism_W.pdf0 -
Touché.SouthamObserver said:
See Brexit. Having your cake and eating it is the new normal. Wages will go up, spending will go up, taxes will go down, immigration will fall, Britain will lead the world, the EU will give us what we want. The voters have the taste for rejecting reality.kle4 said:
It's not hope, it's a fantasy. Unfortunately people are going for that fantasy.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
£350m a week for the NHS anyone? More of that please...0 -
Chris Mullin's Very British Coup turns out to be documentary rather than a novel.0
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Is that you being sarcastic Mr Nabavi or are you really worried ?Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, Mrs. May: What have you done?
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Apparently people were not truly thinking about the options then. They are now, and are Trump like going for the promise of change. He should still fall short, but the arrogance of the Tories has made May look very very stupid.Quincel said:
This is all well and good, but wasn't it true 6 months ago too. Poll leads were big then.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.0 -
Cameroons so upset with what has happened to Dave and George that they will vote Corbyn to spite May.The_Apocalypse said:
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Aren't the respondents randomly chosen?TheKitchenCabinet said:
If a survey has 1500 respondents, let's say, then a 100 people influx can have a disproportionate impact on numbers very very quickly. It really does not take that many people to change the numbers. And you only have to see the reaction on here to see it can have an effect.rkrkrk said:
Betting markets aren't very pro Corbyn are they?Essexit said:
I don't know if it's fair to call it conspiracy; Momentum definitely did suggest influencing betting markets at least. But it's not likely I grant you.rkrkrk said:
It's vastly more likely that the polls are just wrong. They've overestimated students voting or shy tories or something like that. I'd cling on to that rather than conspiracy if I were you?Essexit said:
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
...or am I just clutching at straws?
I was referring to the infiltration of polling companies which seems far fetched to me.
You have to remember the ad hoc part of the market research industry, which is essentially what these polling companies are in, are under a lot of pressure, costs have been cut significantly and, quite frankly, standards are likely to have dropped.
Not sure I'm understanding fully what you are saying...
Or do you mean that momentum have persuaded polling companies to keep calling their supporters?
In which case why the surge over time?0 -
She's worse than Gordon Brown, at least he wasn't stupid enough to actually call an early election.Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, Mrs. May: What have you done?
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ffs You are an intelligent person and you know damn well it is not house theft. Social care is near to collapse in many local authorities and at some point it will have to be addressed, or we can can just stick our heads ever deeper in the sand.MaxPB said:
You keep telling yourself that rubbish. May is legitimising Corbyn. That's why Labour are surging, along with frankly stupid policies like house theft.Mortimer said:
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.0 -
Only a fortnight ago there were widespread lamentations about how boring and predictable the election was. At least Nick Timothy has sorted out that difficulty.0
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Irrespective of what the polls say, I can't help feeling that on the day too many voters for whom life is ok will think an experiment in Corbynism is just not worth the risk.0
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The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!MaxPB said:
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.Mortimer said:
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....blueblue said:The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Snigger.0 -
I am wondering if that's the case. Weird how some election campaigns people don't change once they pay attention, but others...kle4 said:
Apparently people were not truly thinking about the options then. They are now, and are Trump like going for the promise of change. He should still fall short, but the arrogance of the Tories has made May look very very stupid.Quincel said:
This is all well and good, but wasn't it true 6 months ago too. Poll leads were big then.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.0 -
Yeah but that point could have been June 9th !Clown_Car_HQ said:
ffs You are an intelligent person and you know damn well it is not house theft. Social care is near to collapse in many local authorities and at some point it will have to be addressed, or we can can just stick our heads ever deeper in the sand.MaxPB said:
You keep telling yourself that rubbish. May is legitimising Corbyn. That's why Labour are surging, along with frankly stupid policies like house theft.Mortimer said:
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.0 -
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labourkle4 said:Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
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Cameron and May are not in the same league. He won the election for the Tories in 2015 - remember that! A.N. Other in charge of the Tories then and it would have been Ed Milliband as PM. I have a grudging respect for Cameron.glw said:
Cameroons so upset with what has happened to Dave and George that they will vote Corbyn to spite May.The_Apocalypse said:0 -
So glad I closed out my buy of Tory seats at 378 last week.0
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Totally off-topic.
Today I was in Milan, having lunch overlooking the Duomo with senior partners from the a couple of the largest accounting and law firms in Italy. One was from the North, and one from the South.
It's hard, in the UK, to realise just how broken Italy is. Even compared to France, it is a bureaucratic nightmare, with appalling demographics, a f*cked up political system, rampant corruption and a sclerotic labour market. Both men despaired of positive change.
One felt that the only option was for Italy to leave the EU, so it would be forced to take responsibility for its actions. The other saw the EU as the only possible salvation for Italy, forcing it to change all the things that were wrong with the country.
Neither were Bepe Grillo supporters, largely on the basis that Beppe Grillo's current pitch to the Italian people is that there is stagnation due to lack of cheap internet access is (to use my phrase) away with the fairies.
If the EU/Eurozone is to fall apart, Italy will be the catalyst.0 -
It's ok, Southam, it'll be alright on the nite.SouthamObserver said:
If Corbyn takes Labour forward, clearly people like me will have been proved wrong. I don't think I will be. And I think I'll turn out to be right about Mrs May, too.kle4 said:Labour seats with 10000 majorities under threat my arse. The Labour moderates and sceptics will be smashed if these latest scores are even close.
0 -
Brown would not have got 42%TheScreamingEagles said:
She's worse than Gordon Brown, at least he wasn't stupid enough to actually call an early election.Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, Mrs. May: What have you done?
0 -
Only because he was stupid enough to fall for your guy(osborne) little tax gift.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's worse than Gordon Brown, at least he wasn't stupid enough to actually call an early election.Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, Mrs. May: What have you done?
0 -
It's a new 100% IHT rate on dementia sufferers over £100k.Clown_Car_HQ said:
ffs You are an intelligent person and you know damn well it is not house theft. Social care is near to collapse in many local authorities and at some point it will have to be addressed, or we can can just stick our heads ever deeper in the sand.MaxPB said:
You keep telling yourself that rubbish. May is legitimising Corbyn. That's why Labour are surging, along with frankly stupid policies like house theft.Mortimer said:
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
It would have been better to abandon the triple lock entirely and have 5 years of 1% rises in order to pay for social care. It would have been more acceptable than any policy which involves a 100% effective tax rate of any kind (and probably would have saved more money than this will raise).0 -
I would be very interested in seeing some polling evidence of whether tactical voting is returning. That could be the difference between 150 seat majority and a 25 seat one.HYUFD said:
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labourkle4 said:Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
0 -
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.Mortimer said:
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!MaxPB said:
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.Mortimer said:
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....blueblue said:The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Snigger.0 -
There has to be something in this. Brexit was also an anti-establishment victory. It's a mystery to me why he's left it till an election was called before playing the Bernie Sanders card, but when you see Corbyn at rallies and in interviews now he suddenly seems to be the man of the people.JonathanD said:Brexit was a gateway drug to voting hard left.
Ultimately Brexit was won on a manifesto of anti- free market, protectionism and sweeties for all with someone else paying. No surprise that after being told the economy isn't important people are going for Corbyn.
It's mainly 50+ sector of the electorate who regard Corbyn as unelectable. Younger people know very little about the IRA, the Cold War etc. and WW2 is something they did in school, not something that ever came close to touching their lives. Looking at what's happening right now, rather than what happened years ago, the logic of spending millions on drone strikes in the Middle East while cutting back on police in Greater Manchester is difficult to argue.0 -
This isn't the on I filled out earlier; it had none of these supplementals.0
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Did Nick Timothy write an article which said ' Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase their majority' a few weeks ago.0
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Yes, it is 5* that is the real danger for the EU not FNrcs1000 said:Totally off-topic.
Today I was in Milan, having lunch overlooking the Duomo with senior partners from the a couple of the largest accounting and law firms in Italy. One was from the North, and one from the South.
It's hard, in the UK, to realise just how broken Italy is. Even compared to France, it is a bureaucratic nightmare, with appalling demographics, a f*cked up political system, rampant corruption and a sclerotic labour market. Both men despaired of positive change.
One felt that the only option was for Italy to leave the EU, so it would be forced to take responsibility for its actions. The other saw the EU as the only possible salvation for Italy, forcing it to change all the things that were wrong with the country.
Neither were Bepe Grillo supporters, largely on the basis that Beppe Grillo's current pitch to the Italian people is that there is stagnation due to lack of cheap internet access is (to use my phrase) away with the fairies.
If the EU/Eurozone is to fall apart, Italy will be the catalyst.0 -
Wondering what chance a Labour poll lead between now and polling day.0
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Fantasy tends to sell better than misery. (See Brexit). Otherwise advertising wouldn't exist.kle4 said:
It's not hope, it's a fantasy. Unfortunately people are going for that fantasy.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
0 -
Why not? They thought Brexit was worth the risk.steve_garner said:Irrespective of what the polls say, I can't help feeling that on the day too many voters for whom life is ok will think an experiment in Corbynism is just not worth the risk.
0 -
My understanding is that Yougov pick randomly from a pool of hundreds* of thousands. I just don't believe it would be possible to infiltrate and influence that pool without it being blatantly obvious to Yougov what was happening. I find the idea that Momentum or any other grouping could influence the polls in that way to be extremely far fetched.
*Edited in light of Chris's more accurate number inn the following post.0 -
But YouGov has a panel of 800,000 people in the UK, and that has been developed over many years. You would need a huge number of people to take part in this secret infiltration operation, and it would take a long time. And what would it achieve, given that the discrepancy with phone polls would be obvious? And that only a tiny part of the electorate obsess over opinion polls anyway?TheKitchenCabinet said:
If a survey has 1500 respondents, let's say, then a 100 people influx can have a disproportionate impact on numbers very very quickly. It really does not take that many people to change the numbers. And you only have to see the reaction on here to see it can have an effect.rkrkrk said:
Betting markets aren't very pro Corbyn are they?Essexit said:
I don't know if it's fair to call it conspiracy; Momentum definitely did suggest influencing betting markets at least. But it's not likely I grant you.rkrkrk said:
It's vastly more likely that the polls are just wrong. They've overestimated students voting or shy tories or something like that. I'd cling on to that rather than conspiracy if I were you?Essexit said:
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
...or am I just clutching at straws?
I was referring to the infiltration of polling companies which seems far fetched to me.0 -
The way things are heading she won't eitherHYUFD said:
Brown would not have got 42%TheScreamingEagles said:
She's worse than Gordon Brown, at least he wasn't stupid enough to actually call an early election.Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, Mrs. May: What have you done?
0 -
Been saying that for a while. Utterly chaotic and too big to fail. A real nightmare for the EZ.rcs1000 said:Totally off-topic.
Today I was in Milan, having lunch overlooking the Duomo with senior partners from the a couple of the largest accounting and law firms in Italy. One was from the North, and one from the South.
It's hard, in the UK, to realise just how broken Italy is. Even compared to France, it is a bureaucratic nightmare, with appalling demographics, a f*cked up political system, rampant corruption and a sclerotic labour market. Both men despaired of positive change.
One felt that the only option was for Italy to leave the EU, so it would be forced to take responsibility for its actions. The other saw the EU as the only possible salvation for Italy, forcing it to change all the things that were wrong with the country.
Neither were Bepe Grillo supporters, largely on the basis that Beppe Grillo's current pitch to the Italian people is that there is stagnation due to lack of cheap internet access is (to use my phrase) away with the fairies.
If the EU/Eurozone is to fall apart, Italy will be the catalyst.0 -
Near zero, Yougov shows the Tories have made a net gain from Labour since 2015 even tonight, the Corbyn gains are entirely due to over a third of 2015 LDs and a few UKIP switching to Labour and there are not enough left from them to squeezeJonathan said:Wondering what chance a Labour poll lead between now and polling day.
0 -
Tactical voting in whose favour?rcs1000 said:
I would be very interested in seeing some polling evidence of whether tactical voting is returning. That could be the difference between 150 seat majority and a 25 seat one.HYUFD said:
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labourkle4 said:Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
2 party voting seems to be returning, both parties are dramatically up leaving fewer third party votes to squeeze tactically.0 -
Much less after Corbyn's disastrous decision tonight, probably.Jonathan said:Wondering what chance a Labour poll lead between now and polling day.
Corbyn's unorthodox strengths, that have led to this surprising position, are also connected to his unorthodox weakness ; luckily, for the Tories.0 -
Maybe, but that cannot be certain given apparently people don't think it is that much of a risk - it isn't as though the Lab score is increasing while Corbyn's remain at their terrible lows, apparently his have improved a great deal, people are not worried about him, as much, as they were, which will limit how many cannot go through with it.steve_garner said:Irrespective of what the polls say, I can't help feeling that on the day too many voters for whom life is ok will think an experiment in Corbynism is just not worth the risk.
0 -
If anyone was warming up for a Labour bounce, Jez is going to give a speech tomorrow telling us how the terrorism is all our own fault, innit.0
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So glad I sold the Tories on SPIN at 393 last Saturday and 284 tonightTheScreamingEagles said:So glad I closed out my buy of Tory seats at 378 last week.
0 -
LOL at the hysterical over-reaction to one poll.
Con Majority is now out to 1.15 on Betfair though, so worth a top up, and tomorrow we have the joy of Corbyn's speech blaming Britain for terrorism followed by him sitting down with Andrew Neil - someone who's seen everything before and isn't going to pull any punches.
Night all!0 -
Some chill pills needed on here. Lots of tory voters pre manifesto are saying they'll abstain. A week to calm down and think about the prospect of Corbyn and they will be out to vote. Labour score is probably being increased by people who won't in the end vote. Majority of over 100, don't panic.0
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Just bare Con Maj looks a magnificent bet if, like me, you are a poll denier.woody662 said:
Conservative majority of over 100, I sold Lib Dem seats at 23 and will be letting that ride.peter_from_putney said:
But where's the best value?woody662 said:Some magnificent betting opportunities available tomorrow, time to raid the piggy bank.
0 -
Actually that means if the Tories lost the net gain they've made from Labour then there's every chance of a Labour lead!HYUFD said:
Near zero, Yougov shows the Tories have made a net gain from Labour since 2015 even tonight, the Corbyn gains are entirely due to over a third of 2015 LDs and a few UKIP switching to Labour and there are not enough left from them to squeezeJonathan said:Wondering what chance a Labour poll lead between now and polling day.
0 -
On topic Labour on 38%? Does anyone believe this?0
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Just wondering what impact the Manchester tragedy might be having and the extent to which this might continue through until 8 June.0
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Sold at 284? BraveMikeSmithson said:
So glad I sold the Tories on SPIN at 393 last Saturday and 284 tonightTheScreamingEagles said:So glad I closed out my buy of Tory seats at 378 last week.
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I think I'll be joining you.MikeSmithson said:
So glad I sold the Tories on SPIN at 393 last Saturday and 284 tonightTheScreamingEagles said:So glad I closed out my buy of Tory seats at 378 last week.
0 -
Really?Saltire said:Corbyn is not viewed so negatively by the Scottish public as down south
'The survey showed Corbyn had slumped to -56 per cent in Scotland, with 13 per cent of voters thinking he is doing well and 69 per cent thinking he is doing badly. This is down 21 points from November, when his net approval rating was at -35.
..Theresa May has a rating of -10 among all Scots.'
http://tinyurl.com/lnuwbse0 -
Indeed and the fact that over 400 seats voted Leave compared to over 200 Remain means May can win many Midlands and Northern marginal seats by squeezing the UKIP vote even if Corbyn wins huge majorities in inner London and Manchester and Liverpool etc. Plus Yougov tonight is also showing a large 12% swing from SNP to the Tories in Scotland meaning Ruth Davidson could win up to 10 SNP seats north of the borderrcs1000 said:
I would be very interested in seeing some polling evidence of whether tactical voting is returning. That could be the difference between 150 seat majority and a 25 seat one.HYUFD said:
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labourkle4 said:Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
0 -
A certainty, I think. Several of them.Jonathan said:Wondering what chance a Labour poll lead between now and polling day.
0 -
I hope for your sake there's a typo there somewhereMikeSmithson said:
So glad I sold the Tories on SPIN at 393 last Saturday and 284 tonightTheScreamingEagles said:So glad I closed out my buy of Tory seats at 378 last week.
0 -
But was it the northerner or the southerner who wanted to leave the EU ?rcs1000 said:Totally off-topic.
Today I was in Milan, having lunch overlooking the Duomo with senior partners from the a couple of the largest accounting and law firms in Italy. One was from the North, and one from the South.
It's hard, in the UK, to realise just how broken Italy is. Even compared to France, it is a bureaucratic nightmare, with appalling demographics, a f*cked up political system, rampant corruption and a sclerotic labour market. Both men despaired of positive change.
One felt that the only option was for Italy to leave the EU, so it would be forced to take responsibility for its actions. The other saw the EU as the only possible salvation for Italy, forcing it to change all the things that were wrong with the country.
Neither were Bepe Grillo supporters, largely on the basis that Beppe Grillo's current pitch to the Italian people is that there is stagnation due to lack of cheap internet access is (to use my phrase) away with the fairies.
If the EU/Eurozone is to fall apart, Italy will be the catalyst.
0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40053427
So Corbyn wants to talk about terrorism - what could go wrong?0 -
Did Nick Timothy steal your girlfriend, seriously?TheScreamingEagles said:Did Nick Timothy write an article which said ' Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase their majority' a few weeks ago.
0 -
Yes, but most people had not seen Corbyn or May then. Only read about the devil and the Mother of the Nation.Quincel said:
This is all well and good, but wasn't it true 6 months ago too. Poll leads were big then.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.0 -
Nope, means they're outpolling Tony in 2005DavidL said:On topic Labour on 38%? Does anyone believe this?
0 -
Time to start looking at some of the attractive seat markets for potential Labour gains from Tories, lads!
I'd start with Battersea; the poll earlier today had them only 8% behind as of 10th May, at a time when Labour were still 16-18% behind in the national polls.0 -
I must say that it's quite an accomplishment for Teresa May. Against a Labour leader as hopeless as Jez Corbyn, she's done so badly in the last few weeks that she's probably looking at a majority of only around 20-40 seats, and certainly not the "landslide" people have been banging on about.
What's that cliché about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?0 -
It's not one poll. Perhaps it is overreaction to multiple polls showing a trend of big reductions in the Tory lead, but until there's evidence to the contrary - and so far the only evidence, from the campaign, is anecdote on the doorstep (admittedly the locals seemed to indicate a poor chance for Labour, but then as we are often told, people vote differently in locals vs national) - unless one just doesn't believe the polls, it seems apt to react to Labour surging into something approaching contention.Sandpit said:LOL at the hysterical over-reaction to one poll.
0 -
Scotland is a different country.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed I have been poking about in seats where SNP are in a 2 horse race with SLAB, and where Corbynism may well be popular. Parts of Glasgow for example. There were massive SNP surges before in 2015, but are they fading?Saltire said:
Considering that they accounted for almost 5% of the total vote last time it along with the Greens on almost 4% plus 1% for PC + others it shows either the SNP or the Greens are polling very poorly and the Green lack of candidates will see their share fall off quite a bit anyway.tlg86 said:I see the others are down two to 6% - does that mean the SNP are doing badly in this poll?
It might be that Labour are getting back a few voters from the SNP as well as the Greens in Scotland (Corbyn is not viewed so negatively by the Scottish public as down south) which could make a couple more seats interesting in Scotland outside the challenges of the LDs and Tories to the Nats.0 -
Look, I'm an historian. I place more value in historical fact than hearsay and alternative futures from fanbois.midwinter said:
You can keep arguing that point. I'm telling you that if Dave had become Pm in 2016 under the same circumstances as the blessed Mrs M he would be considerably more than 5 points ahead of Corbyn.Mortimer said:
The Cameron project that tripped itself up after alienating up to 20% of the right? The Cameron project that trailed Corbyn's Labour in polls in April 3016? Do me a flavour!MaxPB said:
Against the worst Labour leader of all time. It's a fucking disaster. Dave would be 20 points up right now on a "Mr Brexit" campaign. He would not have made these stupid unforced errors.Mortimer said:
Nah - your not listening to the hedgie Osbornites. 43% is dreadful.....blueblue said:The one thing that's keeping me from going fucking insane is that the Tory score is still at a historic high of 43. And if that 43% are loyal now, after the car crash manifesto and May's wobble, then they've got to turn out on election day to stop a Corbyn government.
Snigger.0 -
For the first time in my life I will be spoiling my ballot since this election has become infantilised.Pulpstar said:
Yeah but that point could have been June 9th !Clown_Car_HQ said:
ffs You are an intelligent person and you know damn well it is not house theft. Social care is near to collapse in many local authorities and at some point it will have to be addressed, or we can can just stick our heads ever deeper in the sand.MaxPB said:
You keep telling yourself that rubbish. May is legitimising Corbyn. That's why Labour are surging, along with frankly stupid policies like house theft.Mortimer said:
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.0 -
That is not quite true . On this poll Labour gain around 42 2015 LD voters but lose around 39 2015 Lab voters to them . Conservatives gain around 43 2015 Labor voters but lose around 40 2015 Con voters to them . It is all marginal movements going in all directions except UKIP to everyone and a small net movement from Con to Lib Dem .HYUFD said:
The yougov figures show Corbyn is mainly winning 2015 LDs and some 2015 UKIP voters, the Tories are still making a net gain from Labourkle4 said:Ok but seriously, if there has not just been a polling cock up in the past week or so, how soft was the Tory support and Labour anti-corbynism? Tories are still polling high, really, albeit not as super high as they were, so have shed support, and if the polls are right then all the anti-corbyn labour people are returning with tails between their legs, and all the talk of vast Lab-UKIP_CON switchers was bullcrap.
0 -
lol - go on,rub it in ;-)Danny565 said:Time to start looking at some of the attractive seat markets for potential Labour gains from Tories, lads!
I'd start with Battersea; the poll earlier today had them only 8% behind as of 10th May, at a time when Labour were still 16-18% behind in the national polls.0
