politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories heading for 124 seat majority according to spread betti

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What some police officers have been dealing with in Greater Manchester today

https://twitter.com/GMPMiddleton/status/867771197232164864

Sounds like one of Heston's recipes gone wrong? Posting it through your neighbour's letterbox when the recipe goes wrong is, however, proper naughty.

Deliveroo mixup.

IanB2 said:

woody662 said:

Shame it's illegal to report sampling of postal votes. Soooo interesting.

In practice it is pretty much impossible to do, anyhow, since the papers are verified face down.

Last few verifications I did we were instructed to do it face up. Which surprised me, as I was sure it is supposed to be face down. Is the face down rule just for postal votes?

Morris_Dancer said:

Ms. Apocalypse, which constituency is that?

Mr. Cumbria, boo! I bet the Fish Finger would've been brill.

Battersea

Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.

IanB2 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs

I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.

Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

woody662 said:

Shame it's illegal to report sampling of postal votes. Soooo interesting.

In practice it is pretty much impossible to do, anyhow, since the papers are verified face down.

Last few verifications I did we were instructed to do it face up. Which surprised me, as I was sure it is supposed to be face down. Is the face down rule just for postal votes?

The rules are that postal votes are verified face down (since the object is to confirm the voter's ID whilst preserving the secrecy of their vote) whilst polling station votes are verified face up (to keep secret the ballot paper ID numbers on the back).

Sending people to observe postal vote verifications is a waste of time, and most of the time the parties don't bother. Now and again some young activist gets sent just in case, and if s/he is lucky he catches a glimpse of three or four papers as they are pulled out of envelopes before being turned face down. When s/he gets back to HQ she is pumped for information by people desperately keen for any sign as to how things are going, so says something along the lines of "well, I didn't see much, but the few papers I saw seemed very Tory" (or whatever). Chinese whispers does the rest and pretty soon the story that "the Tories have won the postal vote" is circulating amongst activists.

It's always bulls**t and best ignored.

The only way you can assess the postal vote is to do a good tally of the verification of polling station votes (which if done well can count a majority of them) and then compare your tally with the declared result, the discrepancy being due to the postal votes.

Mr. D, if Corbyn stays and the PLP won't split, we may have another terrible choice at the next election. A saner alternative on the left would be a good thing.

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

What does this mean?

Talk about missing the point:

https://twitter.com/PA/status/867732493973299200

Richard_Tyndall said:

Completed a Yougov VI poll this afternoon.

Messages seem to come up on PB saying that someone or other has taken part in a poll with considerable regularity. It's no wonder they have trouble coming up with the right answers sometimes if they rely on such unrepresentative samples.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

https://twitter.com/robdalby/status/867792016100532224

Ms. Apocalypse, the joke is that *everyone* here gets accused of being a PB Tory [NB different to being a Conservative]. Happened to Greens, Kippers etc etc etc.

I'd quite like an alternative to May. The problem I have is that the alternatives are even worse.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

What does this mean?

I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm

I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

What does this mean?

I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm

I'm going to guess it's more attacking the other party, than announcing their own policy, for it to be regarded as the truce well and truly off.

Just guessing but a Tory attack on Corbyn's terrorist sympathising history.

If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867792630821920769

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

What does this mean?

I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm

I'm going to guess it's more attacking the other party, than announcing their own policy, for it to be regarded as the truce well and truly off.

Just guessing but a Tory attack on Corbyn's terrorist sympathising history.

Not sure that wouldn't be a mistake so close to the terrible event.

calum said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867792630821920769

Sounds like Labout attack then - they are only ones with hard-core idealogy. I suppose could be LibDems saying leaving EU caused Manchester?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

What does this mean?

I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm

I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.

YouGov have released some polling, conducted Mon and Tuesday of this week

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867781690449678336
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867780304903094272

Thanks to Nick Timothy putting a Nimitz class sized barnacle on the Tory boat, I fear the Blue meanies might have to throw a dead lion onto the table

Anyway, too humid so I'm off.

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.

Fear? It is something to be rejoiced.

You have a funny view of democracy if you think that seeing a party that typically attracts the support of 10-20% of British voters being reduced to fewer than 9 out of 650 MPs is a good thing.

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Ms. Apocalypse, cheers.

I do fear the Lib Dems may go backwards at this election.

Fear? It is something to be rejoiced.

You have a funny view of democracy if you think that seeing a party that typically attracts the support of 10-20% of British voters being reduced to fewer than 9 out of 650 MPs is a good thing.

Looks like it is on course to get less than 10% now though.

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

It's a poll?

I assumed it was (wrongly, it seems).

A political attack by either main party this soon after Manchester may backfire spectacularly.

saddo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

What does this mean?

I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm

I'm going to guess it's more attacking the other party, than announcing their own policy, for it to be regarded as the truce well and truly off.

Just guessing but a Tory attack on Corbyn's terrorist sympathising history.

My money's on an uber smear job, that this far out comes from the comrades.

Crosby will keep his powder try until the last week and until there are decent reads post Manchester

Comrades on the other hand should be pretty desperate if they actually want to win and believe all their bubble propaganda

Yeah the second Tweet now makes me think Comrades too. Tories would be attacking the other parties hardcore ideology not using their own.

IanB2 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

IanB2 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs

I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.

Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!

Since they're not going to win Battersea, it doesn't really matter either way.

Personally (as a LibDem) I think the campaign so far has been pitiful. But, looking on the bright side, if Brexit does go seriously bad, we are at least very well positoned to mop up the "we told you so" vote in a few years' time.

I agree on both points.
I also think that the LibDems would be well advised to not go full-on "Let's rejoin the EU", but instead to propose that links are strengthened with Europe in a major way - for example, signing up to the single market.

Salami tactics are the key if the LibDems want to get the UK back in the EU fold (bearing in mind that greater integration would be required to rejoin in the future, such as committing to the Euro).

calum said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867792630821920769

Given that Mr Cole is of the right wing and works for the Sun, that reference to 'hard core ideology' suggests it's someone on the left that's about to unleash a verbal attack.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

What does this mean?

I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm

I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.

YouGov have released some polling, conducted Mon and Tuesday of this week

htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867781690449678336
htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867780304903094272

Thanks to Nick Timothy putting a Nimitz class sized barnacle on the Tory boat, I fear the Blue meanies might have to throw a dead lion onto the table

Theresa May decided to include it!

And the Tory manifesto was not all about spend spend spend, of course more negative policies cut through.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

What does this mean?

I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm

I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.

YouGov have released some polling, conducted Mon and Tuesday of this week

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867781690449678336
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867780304903094272

Thanks to Nick Timothy putting a Nimitz class sized barnacle on the Tory boat, I fear the Blue meanies might have to throw a dead lion onto the table

Depends how you define positive, reducing immigration, going ahead with Brexit and means testing winter fuel allowance are all backed in polling

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

What does this mean?

I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm

I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.

YouGov have released some polling, conducted Mon and Tuesday of this week

htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867781690449678336
htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867780304903094272

Thanks to Nick Timothy putting a Nimitz class sized barnacle on the Tory boat, I fear the Blue meanies might have to throw a dead lion onto the table

Theresa May decided to include it!

And the Tory manifesto was not all about spend spend spend, of course more negative policies cut through.

She's not very good.

She needs to fire Rasputin PDQ

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

IanB2 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs

I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.

Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!

Since they're not going to win Battersea, it doesn't really matter either way.

Personally (as a LibDem) I think the campaign so far has been pitiful. But, looking on the bright side, if Brexit does go seriously bad, we are at least very well positoned to mop up the "we told you so" vote in a few years' time.

You'd think so, but many thought they'd be well placed to mop up the continuity remain vote and they haven't, and people don't always reward those they perhaps should, after making a mistake.

The problem the LibDems have is that, despite all their obsession with tick-box positive discrimination, the party hierarchy is even more captured by a small group of middle class central and south west Londoners than is Labour. The national campaign is essentially assuming every seat is like Richmond.

Think there is a special Question Time from Manc at 10pm, presumably that's pre recorded, something may be coming in that which breaks the truce.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I don't like the sound of this...

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/867787818134904833

What does this mean?

I assume one of the parties has story/policy to announce, they've briefed the media now, and embargoed it until 10pm

I can't believe the blue team will go for reds for security matters at this point so more inclined to believe someone in the reds or yellows is going all 'mark senior'.... total guess though.

YouGov have released some polling, conducted Mon and Tuesday of this week

htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867781690449678336
htts://twitter.com/YouGov/status/867780304903094272

Thanks to Nick Timothy putting a Nimitz class sized barnacle on the Tory boat, I fear the Blue meanies might have to throw a dead lion onto the table

Theresa May decided to include it!

And the Tory manifesto was not all about spend spend spend, of course more negative policies cut through.

She's not very good.

She needs to fire Rasputin PDQ

Thanet South will give her the perfect reason....

Could be nothing, but:
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/867794169590407168

If Labour are going to go all political on this then it is going to backfire hugely.

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

It's a poll?

I assumed it was (wrongly, it seems).

I'm sure there'll be one at some point, which will be tagged as shocking, so the point still stands.

A big Labour attack on Tory police cuts, emphasizing their promise - notwithstanding Diane Abbott's maths - to recruit 3000 extra officers. Fits the Corbyn free-spending agenda.

Freggles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

IanB2 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs

I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.

Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!

Which poll is being discussed here?

There's a constituency poll downthread about the impact of a 'stop brexit' candidate in (I think) Battersea.

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

Pong said:

The_Apocalypse said:

If this poll shows Labour seriously closing in the Conservatives (I presume that's what he's implying now thinking about it) then WTH? I won't even know what to say about May anymore.

Alternatively, it could be a v bad poll for Labour, but would that be newsworthy?

It may not be a poll.

The tories going for Corbyn's jugular is my guess.

I recon Lynton's decided a massive partisan *terrorism* fight will work in TM's favour.

Cole's second tweet talks about a hard code ideology. That doesn't sound like the Tories. But what do I know!

Labour going after the Tories on Libya?

"We (and especially our wicked leaders) are at fault for acts of terrorism against us" would be entirely in keeping with the Far Left world view. The so-called Stop the War Coalition (former chairman: Mr J Corbyn) has been taking that line for many years.

That seems likely, is certainly ideological and fits the parameters presented.

Morris_Dancer said:

Anyway, too humid so I'm off.

As a northerner you should at least try and enjoy it, whilst it lasts.

AlastairMeeks said:

MikeL said:

YouGov:

Con policies well thought through - 19
Con policies not well thought through - 54

Those numbers are horrendous. I'm suprised so many on here regard the election result as a foregone conclusion.

It's almost as though - more or less unprecedentedly - the Conservatives had done a screeching u turn on a flagship manifesto policy.

well, you might well think that.

Here's my wild speculation.

Labour and Corbyn going for Mrs May tonight on the following narrative

Mrs May's police cuts, coupled with that 2015 interview, opportunities failed to catch him, and the intervention in Libya in 2011, the Manchester attack is May's arrogance/fault

Freggles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

IanB2 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs

I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.

Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!

Which poll is being discussed here?

It was posted earlier in the thread - it's a Survation poll, polling Battersea.

Sandpit said:

Could be nothing, but:
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/867794169590407168

Hopefully just some idiot who thinks parking on any of the London bridges is a good idea.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Here's my wild speculation.

Labour and Corbyn going for Mrs May tonight on the following narrative

Mrs May's police cuts, coupled with that 2015 interview, opportunities failed to catch him, and the intervention in Libya in 2011, the Manchester attack is May's arrogance/fault

The Tories then simply quote Abbott as wanting to disband the security services, and ask who the voters trust more on security issues.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Here's my wild speculation.

Labour and Corbyn going for Mrs May tonight on the following narrative

Mrs May's police cuts, coupled with that 2015 interview, opportunities failed to catch him, and the intervention in Libya in 2011, the Manchester attack is May's arrogance/fault

In the Sun though? I wonder if they've found one of the Corynistas's saying that but not 'openly' .... if it's a full frontal 'assault' then that's Labour going 'all in' or shit or bust, I'd suggest & I'd have said too soon but we'll see.

Freggles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

IanB2 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I'm cackling that the Stop Brexit candidate is polling 9% more than the LDs

I'd venture the suggestion that, confronted on your PC or mobile device's screen with three names that most voters won't have heard of plus the familiar party names, and a fourth that clearly contains a message/policy, does magnify significantly the proportion of people who would click the "anti Brexit" candidate in an area like Battersea. The take away from this is that, in this atypical Inner London seat at least, concern about Brexit is still a very salient issue.

I don't believe the percentage of people clicking against this candidate in an online poll will translate into the same number of real votes when people come to fill in their ballot papers.

Well, hopefully for the LD's sake you're right!

Which poll is being discussed here?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Final-Battersea-Tables-090517CCCH-5c0d3h-2205.pdf

bigjohnowls said:

ManchesterKurt said:

Think there is a special Question Time from Manc at 10pm, presumably that's pre recorded, something may be coming in that which breaks the truce.

Cant see it from this list of panelists TBH

https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/867777358283120642

Interesting panel, without any fringe parties. Could be a very somber QT.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Here's my wild speculation.

Labour and Corbyn going for Mrs May tonight on the following narrative

Mrs May's police cuts, coupled with that 2015 interview, opportunities failed to catch him, and the intervention in Libya in 2011, the Manchester attack is May's arrogance/fault

If they do Crosby has a free pass to dump Corbyn's entire terrorist sympathising history all over his head in the last fortnight, not to mention Osborne actually protected police funding in 2015 and if Corbyn had his way there would be an open border and we would not be bombing ISIS