politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories heading for 124 seat majority according to spread betti
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If the Conservatives are losing ground slightly in places like Kensington and Battersea, they'll be gaining extra ground in Labour Leave seats.another_richard said:
Gaining ground at the expense of Tories in what is by some way the most Remain Conservative constituency and is also safe enough to allow scope for a protest vote.dyedwoolie said:
Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masseMarkSenior said:
Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .dyedwoolie said:
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 mayMarkSenior said:Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
It's on Rentouls twitter
Carshalton is likely to be different.0 -
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8677439623369850880 -
Huppert wins Cambridge and he could be the dark horse for the leadership..TheScreamingEagles said:Let that sink in.
A stop Brexit candidate in a near 80% Remain constituency is polling more than twice the Lib Dem figure.
Tim Farron, you are a child doing an adult's job.0 -
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5 attacks foiled in the past 10 weeks!!!!
MI5 have 500 investigations ongoing and 3000 suspects. When Andy Burnham equates this attack on Manchester to murder of Jo Cox he is talking utter bullshit.0 -
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.another_richard said:
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8677439623369850880 -
This was shared by one of my nutjob friends on facebook earlier..JonCisBack said:
A lot of lefty nutjob conspiracy theorists are frothing and complaining about the terror attack being orchestrated by the Tories to stop their man sweeping into power.rottenborough said:
All results keep Corbyn, he 'aint going until there's a hard left person on the next ticket.TGOHF said:172 doesn't keep Corbo in a job.
Need another Con gaffe or two.
But surely it will be the perfect excuse to keep him as Labour leader at least - "he was gaining in the polls before Manchester" that sort of meme?
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/05/23/man22/
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They really would be the yoghurt knitting sandals party then.TGOHF said:
Huppert wins Cambridge and he could be the dark horse for the leadership..TheScreamingEagles said:Let that sink in.
A stop Brexit candidate in a near 80% Remain constituency is polling more than twice the Lib Dem figure.
Tim Farron, you are a child doing an adult's job.0 -
NiceJohnLoony said:As I was walking to the minute's silence in Croydon this morning, I found that my brain was spontaneously writing a song, to the tune of "Umi Yukaba":
We're all Manchester
We are all Manchester
Today, yesterday,
Tomorrow, and forever.
Today, we remember;
Tomorrow, we will strive;
We never will give in.0 -
Taps mic...Sniff sniff...FAKE NEWWWWS...ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Trump and the yanks getting both barrels on Sky News0
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They don't. Clegg is definitely vulnerable but he isn't THAT vulnerable. Anyway I've clovered the seat (Except the Tories) and it acts as a hedge against my weighted low overall seat position.paulyork64 said:
wow. they are way out of line there. best price elsewhere is 2/7. I wonder what they think they know.tlg86 said:
Paddy's offering a 44% return in two weeks if you're so confident of Clegg holding on.MarkSenior said:
Dream Ontlg86 said:
It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.MarkSenior said:
ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .tlg86 said:
That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.dyedwoolie said:
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 mayMarkSenior said:Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
It's on Rentouls twitter
Plus you get me working to help the bet on Saturday.0 -
And, frankly,he had the opportunity to ask for other offences to be taken into consideration.JohnLoony said:
The point of prosecuting suspected criminals is to bring them to justice for the crimes which they are accused of committing, so that they can be punished accordingly, whether by imprisonment or otherwise.AlastairMeeks said:Unless the allegations against him this time are far worse than last time, I really can't see the point of this. He's already been tried and served a lengthy sentence:
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I've had a nibble on the reds at 13/2.Pulpstar said:
They don't. Clegg is definitely vulnerable but he isn't THAT vulnerable. Anyway I've clovered the seat (Except the Tories) and it acts as a hedge against my weighted low overall seat position.paulyork64 said:
wow. they are way out of line there. best price elsewhere is 2/7. I wonder what they think they know.tlg86 said:
Paddy's offering a 44% return in two weeks if you're so confident of Clegg holding on.MarkSenior said:
Dream Ontlg86 said:
It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.MarkSenior said:
ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .tlg86 said:
That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.dyedwoolie said:
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 mayMarkSenior said:Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
It's on Rentouls twitter
Plus you get me working to help the bet on Saturday.0 -
On topic I do not believe that the spreads are at all predictive. They are a current understanding of the likelihood of the result by those who have enough money to be betting on the result.0
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£2 reds @ 25-1; £48.78 Clegg @ 4-9 (Both bet limits in case yr wondering)paulyork64 said:
I've had a nibble on the reds at 13/2.Pulpstar said:
They don't. Clegg is definitely vulnerable but he isn't THAT vulnerable. Anyway I've clovered the seat (Except the Tories) and it acts as a hedge against my weighted low overall seat position.paulyork64 said:
wow. they are way out of line there. best price elsewhere is 2/7. I wonder what they think they know.tlg86 said:
Paddy's offering a 44% return in two weeks if you're so confident of Clegg holding on.MarkSenior said:
Dream Ontlg86 said:
It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.MarkSenior said:
ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .tlg86 said:
That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.dyedwoolie said:
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 mayMarkSenior said:Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
It's on Rentouls twitter
Plus you get me working to help the bet on Saturday.0 -
Re the PM after the GE market:
If May gets a tiny majority and decides to resign she won't drive to Buckingham Palace on 9 June just as Cameron didn't the day after the EU ref. She would remain PM whilst Con chose a new leader - and thus she would be the winner of the "PM after the GE" market.
Ditto if there is a Con minority Government supported by DUP etc.
So, in my view, May to be PM after the GE is more likely than a Con Majority.
When the Exit Poll came out in 2015 showing 316 Con seats, Cameron was heavy odds on to be PM. Surely May would be in the same situation.0 -
They are predictive of what these people believe will happen. Nothing more.Nemtynakht said:On topic I do not believe that the spreads are at all predictive. They are a current understanding of the likelihood of the result by those who have enough money to be betting on the result.
They are, by their very nature, a self-selecting, small sample.0 -
Yep.MikeL said:Re the PM after the GE market:
If May gets a tiny majority and decides to resign she won't drive to Buckingham Palace on 9 June just as Cameron didn't the day after the EU ref. She would remain PM whilst Con chose a new leader - and thus she would be the winner of the "PM after the GE" market.
Ditto if there is a Con minority Government supported by DUP etc.
So, in my view, May to be PM after the GE is more likely than a Con Majority.0 -
The spreads underestimated the Blues in 2015.Nemtynakht said:On topic I do not believe that the spreads are at all predictive. They are a current understanding of the likelihood of the result by those who have enough money to be betting on the result.
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Comparing the Remain vote in the Conservative battleground constituencies in London:Sean_F said:
If the Conservatives are losing ground slightly in places like Kensington and Battersea, they'll be gaining extra ground in Labour Leave seats.another_richard said:
Gaining ground at the expense of Tories in what is by some way the most Remain Conservative constituency and is also safe enough to allow scope for a protest vote.dyedwoolie said:
Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masseMarkSenior said:
Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .dyedwoolie said:
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 mayMarkSenior said:Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
It's on Rentouls twitter
Carshalton is likely to be different.
Hampstead 77%
Tooting 75%
Richmond 73%
Ealing C 71%
Westminster N 67%
Twickenham 66%
Kingston 59%
Brentford 57%
Harrow W 57%
Enfield N 51%
Croydon C 50%
Sutton 49%
Eltham 48%
Ilford N 48%
Erith 46%
Carshalton 44%
Dagenham 30%
The majority are more Leave than the London average.0 -
Based on experience of constituency polls last time round, I think the Survation Battersea poll is probably best filed in the bin. Quite apart from anything else, the Stop Brexit indy ain't gonna get 17%.
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets):
https://www.ig.com/uk/general-election-2017
Currently slightly different to the SPIN and SpreadEx prices:
Con 386-392
Lab 170-175
LD 13-15.5
SNP 43.5-46.50 -
lovely.Pulpstar said:
£2 reds @ 25-1; £48.78 Clegg @ 4-9 (Both bet limits in case yr wondering)paulyork64 said:
I've had a nibble on the reds at 13/2.Pulpstar said:
They don't. Clegg is definitely vulnerable but he isn't THAT vulnerable. Anyway I've clovered the seat (Except the Tories) and it acts as a hedge against my weighted low overall seat position.paulyork64 said:
wow. they are way out of line there. best price elsewhere is 2/7. I wonder what they think they know.tlg86 said:
Paddy's offering a 44% return in two weeks if you're so confident of Clegg holding on.MarkSenior said:
Dream Ontlg86 said:
It depends if you believe the national polls. They show the Lib Dems holding on to around 60 to 65% of their 2015 vote. It's no good if it's being replaced with votes in places like this. Clegg is in big trouble.MarkSenior said:
ermm Lib Dems plus 7% on last GE , methinks you are somewhat blinkered .tlg86 said:
That's a pretty dreadful poll for the Lib Dems.dyedwoolie said:
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 mayMarkSenior said:Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
It's on Rentouls twitter
Plus you get me working to help the bet on Saturday.0 -
Jesus Trump is on the verge of dismantling NATO here0
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Lol can't watch - give us some cluesdyedwoolie said:Jesus Trump is on the verge of dismantling NATO here
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He's droning on about money being owed by countries not meeting 2%, etc etcPulpstar said:
Lol can't watch - give us some cluesdyedwoolie said:Jesus Trump is on the verge of dismantling NATO here
Also saying NATO needs to look at immigration0 -
Training camp of the shrewdest betting brains!Richard_Nabavi said:Based on experience of constituency polls last time round, I think the Survation Battersea poll is probably best filed in the bin. Quite apart from anything else, the Stop Brexit indy ain't gonna get 17%.
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets):
https://www.ig.com/uk/general-election-2017
Currently slightly different to the SPIN and SpreadEx prices:
Con 386-392
Lab 170-175
LD 13-15.5
SNP 43.5-46.5
Lab under 177.5 at 11/10 Betfair0 -
Fun's not over with that, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.another_richard said:
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8677439623369850880 -
Otherwise known as a defined contribution pensionRichard_Nabavi said:
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets): 0 -
It saddens me that I expect some of my acquaintances to share similar. I had a classic earlier where in 2 posts there was one about how couldn't get costs right in there manifesto, and then subsequently one about a conspiracy in Manchester. I always expect people to tend towards incompetence.JonnyJimmy said:
This was shared by one of my nutjob friends on facebook earlier..JonCisBack said:
A lot of lefty nutjob conspiracy theorists are frothing and complaining about the terror attack being orchestrated by the Tories to stop their man sweeping into power.rottenborough said:
All results keep Corbyn, he 'aint going until there's a hard left person on the next ticket.TGOHF said:172 doesn't keep Corbo in a job.
Need another Con gaffe or two.
But surely it will be the perfect excuse to keep him as Labour leader at least - "he was gaining in the polls before Manchester" that sort of meme?
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/05/23/man22/
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Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?kle4 said:
Fun's not over with that, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.another_richard said:
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8677439623369850880 -
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8677439623369850880 -
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?kle4 said:
Fun's not over with that, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.another_richard said:
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.0 -
Mens rea. Mens rea.kle4 said:
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?kle4 said:
Fun's not over with that, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.another_richard said:
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
If charges are brought will be another tough few days for Nick Timothy.0 -
Tories looked good value to me in B&I...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Nick Timothy's beard is definitely longer than 5 inches.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mens rea. Mens rea.kle4 said:
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?kle4 said:
Fun's not over with that, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.another_richard said:
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
If charges are brought will be another tough few days for Nick Timothy.0 -
The locals clearly didn't correct your irrational exuberance, I seeMarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088 0 -
No change there then. Failed MP failed leadership bid. Useless leadership campaign.FrancisUrquhart said:5 attacks foiled in the past 10 weeks!!!!
MI5 have 500 investigations ongoing and 3000 suspects. When Andy Burnham equates this attack on Manchester to murder of Jo Cox he is talking utter bullshit.0 -
Leadsom? Warm? Reliable? After her meltdown during the leadership election?Pong said:Thatcher was a different woman in a different era.
Forget the words/policy positions for a moment, just go on the vibe;
May isn't warm and relatable, in same the way as - say - leadsom or lucas is.0 -
Its the only constituency where I have money on the Conservatives at odds on.Pulpstar said:
Tories looked good value to me in B&I...TheScreamingEagles said:
Edit: Apart from Clacton.0 -
Is that latin for 'Tories bought the election'?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mens rea. Mens rea.kle4 said:
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?kle4 said:
Fun's not over with that, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.another_richard said:
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
In all seriousness, given it seems quantifiably more extreme than the other examples, probably harder to argue simple cluelessness, and easier to argue intent, but of course the reality may be tricker than what it seems.
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Did Mens Rea die in vain?kle4 said:
Is that latin for 'Tories bought the election'?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mens rea. Mens rea.kle4 said:
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?kle4 said:
Fun's not over with that, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.another_richard said:
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
In all seriousness, given it seems quantifiably more extreme than the other examples, probably harder to argue simple cluelessness, and easier to argue intent, but of course the reality may be tricker than what it seems.0 -
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8677439623369850880 -
Survived by her younger brother, Chris.Sean_F said:
Did Mens Rea die in vain?kle4 said:
Is that latin for 'Tories bought the election'?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mens rea. Mens rea.kle4 said:
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?kle4 said:
Fun's not over with that, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.another_richard said:
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
In all seriousness, given it seems quantifiably more extreme than the other examples, probably harder to argue simple cluelessness, and easier to argue intent, but of course the reality may be tricker than what it seems.0 -
I expect by this time next week, Labour will be going full throttle on "their" NHS and police numbers. I'm not sure people are in the mood, if my bus-stop conversations are anything to go by.0
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Probably, just like that woman who died to give us free rights in Britain, Margo Carter or something.Sean_F said:
Did Mens Rea die in vain?kle4 said:
Is that latin for 'Tories bought the election'?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mens rea. Mens rea.kle4 said:
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?kle4 said:
Fun's not over with that, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.another_richard said:
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
In all seriousness, given it seems quantifiably more extreme than the other examples, probably harder to argue simple cluelessness, and easier to argue intent, but of course the reality may be tricker than what it seems.0 -
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LD leaflet in Devizes today all about the NHS and social care. Which in fairnesss does dare mention they want to raise income tax to pay for changes.LadyBucket said:I expect by this time next week, Labour will be going full throttle on "their" NHS and police numbers. I'm not sure people are in the mood, if my bus-stop conversations are anything to go by.
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Yes, IG are 2/3 seats more bullish than Sporting/Spreadex on the Tories and 2 seats more bearish on Labour .... which can be handy if you're looking to narrow the spreads.Richard_Nabavi said:Based on experience of constituency polls last time round, I think the Survation Battersea poll is probably best filed in the bin. Quite apart from anything else, the Stop Brexit indy ain't gonna get 17%.
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets):
https://www.ig.com/uk/general-election-2017
Currently slightly different to the SPIN and SpreadEx prices:
Con 386-392
Lab 170-175
LD 13-15.5
SNP 43.5-46.5
Speaking of which, IG are operating a five seat spread on Labour, compared with 6 seats from the other 2 firms.
Until IG entered the GE Seats markets in 2015, both its much smaller competitors were offering TEN SEAT spreads on both the main parties .... talk about taking candy off a baby!0 -
One of the easier predictions in this election.ThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8677439623369850880 -
might need a head startSquareRoot said:
cometh the hour, cometh the man.ThreeQuidder said:
It sucks.Cyclefree said:I am SHOCKED.
All this writing down.
Whatever happened to the oral tradition?0 -
Given the likes of Google and Facebook have AI that can identity people in photos, you would think companies would use a similar service to check against user sent content.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh Em Gee
twitter.com/walkers_crisps/status/867751447819157505
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Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8677439623369850880 -
Prima facie, res ipsa loquitur.Sean_F said:
Did Mens Rea die in vain?kle4 said:
Is that latin for 'Tories bought the election'?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mens rea. Mens rea.kle4 said:
According to RobD the deadline to charge is mere days before GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Will we get a charging decision before the general election?kle4 said:
Fun's not over with that, of course.TheScreamingEagles said:
After the fun with election expenses, the Tories wouldn't go there.another_richard said:
CCHQ should have funded some 'Stop Brexit' candidates in Richmond, Twickenham, Bath, Southport and anywhere else they're competing with the LibDems.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
If even half of what is rumoured about Tory shenanigans in Thanet are true, it's hard to see how there won't be a charge, but we shall see. So close to the GE would definitely be politically awkward.
In all seriousness, given it seems quantifiably more extreme than the other examples, probably harder to argue simple cluelessness, and easier to argue intent, but of course the reality may be tricker than what it seems.0 -
It's all about voter efficiency.MarkSenior said:
Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
Plus, there's more Leave constituencies than Remain constituencies.0 -
0
-
Yes, spreads reflect received wisdom of the above group. This site is surely a key driver in the betting markets in this country and looking back through the threads prior to last election the polls were never settled.TheScreamingEagles said:
The spreads underestimated the Blues in 2015.Nemtynakht said:On topic I do not believe that the spreads are at all predictive. They are a current understanding of the likelihood of the result by those who have enough money to be betting on the result.
Reviewing the site you would have predicted around a parity in votes with the particularly keen narrative of the Yougov daily - the graph in the attached shows what I mean
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/final-call-conservatives-and-labour-tied/
0 -
I won't ask how they will consummate the marriage.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I've found a future wife for Sunil
twitter.com/TheSun/status/8677601746558402560 -
The one MP I would dearly love to see unceremoniously booted out on his ear on June8th/9th is the hideous Jack Dromey.
His reliance on the votes of people he clearly utterly detests is sickening.0 -
They can afford to hold seats in inner London with reduced majorities if they are piling up votes in target seats in the north and midlands...MarkSenior said:
Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8677439623369850880 -
If only she had fallen in love with Baker Street tube station...FrancisUrquhart said:
I won't ask how they will consummate the marriage.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I've found a future wife for Sunil
twitter.com/TheSun/status/8677601746558402560 -
The election is becoming more about dementia and security than Leave/RemainTheScreamingEagles said:
It's all about voter efficiency.MarkSenior said:
Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
Plus, there's more Leave constituencies than Remain constituencies.0 -
Bigamy!TheScreamingEagles said:I think I've found a future wife for Sunil
twitter.com/TheSun/status/8677601746558402560 -
And while Hampstead is very Remain, the residents are not that keen on Corbyn's brand of socialism.another_richard said:
Comparing the Remain vote in the Conservative battleground constituencies in London:Sean_F said:
If the Conservatives are losing ground slightly in places like Kensington and Battersea, they'll be gaining extra ground in Labour Leave seats.another_richard said:
Gaining ground at the expense of Tories in what is by some way the most Remain Conservative constituency and is also safe enough to allow scope for a protest vote.dyedwoolie said:
Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masseMarkSenior said:
Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .dyedwoolie said:
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 mayMarkSenior said:Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
It's on Rentouls twitter
Carshalton is likely to be different.
Hampstead 77%
Tooting 75%
Richmond 73%
Ealing C 71%
Westminster N 67%
Twickenham 66%
Kingston 59%
Brentford 57%
Harrow W 57%
Enfield N 51%
Croydon C 50%
Sutton 49%
Eltham 48%
Ilford N 48%
Erith 46%
Carshalton 44%
Dagenham 30%
The majority are more Leave than the London average.0 -
She seems more pen-pal material – Although I’d recommend DrBlue gets a PO.Box number.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I've found a future wife for Sunil
ttps://twitter.com/TheSun/status/8677601746558402560 -
RAF crew write 'love from Manchester' on bomb destined for Islamic State target
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/25/raf-crew-write-love-manchester-bomb-destined-islamic-state/0 -
Edit 2010Nemtynakht said:
Yes, spreads reflect received wisdom of the above group. This site is surely a key driver in the betting markets in this country and looking back through the threads prior to last election the polls were never settled.TheScreamingEagles said:
The spreads underestimated the Blues in 2015.Nemtynakht said:On topic I do not believe that the spreads are at all predictive. They are a current understanding of the likelihood of the result by those who have enough money to be betting on the result.
Reviewing the site you would have predicted around a parity in votes with the particularly keen narrative of the Yougov daily - the graph in the attached shows what I mean
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/final-call-conservatives-and-labour-tied/
Peter Kellner's final prediction is good for a laugh though.0 -
Maybe she can take advice from this guy.FrancisUrquhart said:
I won't ask how they will consummate the marriage.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I've found a future wife for Sunil
twitter.com/TheSun/status/8677601746558402560 -
You have nothing to fear then, Mark. We expect to see decent Lib Dem gains, right?MarkSenior said:
The election is becoming more about dementia and security than Leave/RemainTheScreamingEagles said:
It's all about voter efficiency.MarkSenior said:
Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
Plus, there's more Leave constituencies than Remain constituencies.0 -
The libdem figure must be cheering you up then!MarkSenior said:
Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8677439623369850880 -
You say bigamy, I say serial monogamy.ThreeQuidder said:
Bigamy!TheScreamingEagles said:I think I've found a future wife for Sunil
twitter.com/TheSun/status/8677601746558402560 -
So the Lib Dem will hoover up all those seats they lost to the Tories in 2015 thanks to the dementia tax?MarkSenior said:
The election is becoming more about dementia and security than Leave/RemainTheScreamingEagles said:
It's all about voter efficiency.MarkSenior said:
Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
Plus, there's more Leave constituencies than Remain constituencies.0 -
It does look as if living in the 21st Century is all far too much for some people. Perhaps, being charitable, its something to do with being bombarded by radio waves a relatively recent phenomenon, which are frying the cognitive areas of the brain of the thin skulled. Or perhaps resonances are being set up in the heads of the thick skulled?JonnyJimmy said:
This was shared by one of my nutjob friends on facebook earlier..JonCisBack said:
A lot of lefty nutjob conspiracy theorists are frothing and complaining about the terror attack being orchestrated by the Tories to stop their man sweeping into power.rottenborough said:
All results keep Corbyn, he 'aint going until there's a hard left person on the next ticket.TGOHF said:172 doesn't keep Corbo in a job.
Need another Con gaffe or two.
But surely it will be the perfect excuse to keep him as Labour leader at least - "he was gaining in the polls before Manchester" that sort of meme?
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/05/23/man22/0 -
So far Walkers have tweeted out so far Gary Lineker holding up pictures of, inter alia, Rolf Harris, Fred West, Josef Fritzl, and Peter Sutcliffe.
https://twitter.com/JamesLiamCook/status/8677560471754874880 -
Corbyn will be complainign about this. He would rather we love bomb IS. There's nothing a cuppa and a few digestive biccies can't solve.FrancisUrquhart said:RAF crew write 'love from Manchester' on bomb destined for Islamic State target
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/25/raf-crew-write-love-manchester-bomb-destined-islamic-state/0 -
When have I said they would ?TheScreamingEagles said:
So the Lib Dem will hoover up all those seats they lost to the Tories in 2015 thanks to the dementia tax?MarkSenior said:
The election is becoming more about dementia and security than Leave/RemainTheScreamingEagles said:
It's all about voter efficiency.MarkSenior said:
Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
Plus, there's more Leave constituencies than Remain constituencies.0 -
Is Nick Timothy in charge of Walkers social media campaign ?0
-
Corbyns love bomb - that sounds like an innuendo0
-
The two are not mutually exclusive. Brexit, Corbyn and Scotland are likely to make this the most non-UNS election since WWII.MarkSenior said:
Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8677439623369850880 -
The Don's house training still needs a bit of work.
https://twitter.com/SteveKopack/status/8677585718822584320 -
Or a euphemism for a mob of violent AntiFaNemtynakht said:Corbyns love bomb - that sounds like an innuendo
0 -
MarkSenior is just talking about Tory voters.Jason said:
You have nothing to fear then, Mark. We expect to see decent Lib Dem gains, right?MarkSenior said:
The election is becoming more about dementia and security than Leave/RemainTheScreamingEagles said:
It's all about voter efficiency.MarkSenior said:
Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
Plus, there's more Leave constituencies than Remain constituencies.0 -
I find that surprising; surely Glenda wasn't a million miles away in ideology and [quick google] - is a fan...rcs1000 said:
And while Hampstead is very Remain, the residents are not that keen on Corbyn's brand of socialism.another_richard said:
Comparing the Remain vote in the Conservative battleground constituencies in London:Sean_F said:
If the Conservatives are losing ground slightly in places like Kensington and Battersea, they'll be gaining extra ground in Labour Leave seats.another_richard said:
Gaining ground at the expense of Tories in what is by some way the most Remain Conservative constituency and is also safe enough to allow scope for a protest vote.dyedwoolie said:
Sounds about right. Not much movement in London except LD gaining somewhat at the expense of the Tories who gobbled their 2015 votes en masseMarkSenior said:
Yes with named candidates sample size only 503 . Fieldwork before the Labour boost in polls and pre Manchester of course .dyedwoolie said:
Con 48 Lab 38 Lib Dem 11, fieldwork 9-10 mayMarkSenior said:Anyone mentioned the Survation constituency poll for Battersea ?
It's on Rentouls twitter
Carshalton is likely to be different.
Hampstead 77%
Tooting 75%
Richmond 73%
Ealing C 71%
Westminster N 67%
Twickenham 66%
Kingston 59%
Brentford 57%
Harrow W 57%
Enfield N 51%
Croydon C 50%
Sutton 49%
Eltham 48%
Ilford N 48%
Erith 46%
Carshalton 44%
Dagenham 30%
The majority are more Leave than the London average.0 -
lol!TheScreamingEagles said:So far Walkers have tweeted out so far Gary Lineker holding up pictures of, inter alia, Rolf Harris, Fred West, Josef Fritzl, and Peter Sutcliffe.
https://twitter.com/JamesLiamCook/status/867756047175487488
Poor Gary. He sold his soul to walkers.0 -
Strangely, I have been to a Santa Fe station, not her Santa Fe, but the one in New MexicoTheScreamingEagles said:I think I've found a future wife for Sunil
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/867760174655840256
0 -
We have a station in the UK that might be suitable for her....Barking.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I've found a future wife for Sunil
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/8677601746558402560 -
But you believe in theMarkSenior said:
When have I said they would ?TheScreamingEagles said:
So the Lib Dem will hoover up all those seats they lost to the Tories in 2015 thanks to the dementia tax?MarkSenior said:
The election is becoming more about dementia and security than Leave/RemainTheScreamingEagles said:
It's all about voter efficiency.MarkSenior said:
Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
Plus, there's more Leave constituencies than Remain constituencies.Tooth FairyLibDems!0 -
Bring back the Like button please.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But you believe in theMarkSenior said:
When have I said they would ?TheScreamingEagles said:
So the Lib Dem will hoover up all those seats they lost to the Tories in 2015 thanks to the dementia tax?MarkSenior said:
The election is becoming more about dementia and security than Leave/RemainTheScreamingEagles said:
It's all about voter efficiency.MarkSenior said:
Thought the Conservatives were supposed to be gaining seats not holding them with reduced majoritiesThreeQuidder said:
It would say Con HOLD Battersea...MarkSenior said:
As the Conservatives would be down 8 and Lib Dems up 3 it says rather more about Mrs Weak and Wobbly than Tim Farrontlg86 said:
Implies that the Lib Dem message has not got across. Or that Farron is a bit rubbish.TheScreamingEagles said:Hmm.
Lib Dems up 3% since the GE, Con down 8%, and Lab down 8%
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/867743962336985088
Plus, there's more Leave constituencies than Remain constituencies.Tooth FairyLibDems!
0 -
There are still untradably wide really. Bring back Spreadfair..peter_from_putney said:
Yes, IG are 2/3 seats more bullish than Sporting/Spreadex on the Tories and 2 seats more bearish on Labour .... which can be handy if you're looking to narrow the spreads.Richard_Nabavi said:Based on experience of constituency polls last time round, I think the Survation Battersea poll is probably best filed in the bin. Quite apart from anything else, the Stop Brexit indy ain't gonna get 17%.
On the subject of the spreads, don't forget IGIndex (the world's largest spread-betting company, mainly handling serious bets in the financial markets):
https://www.ig.com/uk/general-election-2017
Currently slightly different to the SPIN and SpreadEx prices:
Con 386-392
Lab 170-175
LD 13-15.5
SNP 43.5-46.5
Speaking of which, IG are operating a five seat spread on Labour, compared with 6 seats from the other 2 firms.
Until IG entered the GE Seats markets in 2015, both its much smaller competitors were offering TEN SEAT spreads on both the main parties .... talk about taking candy off a baby!0 -
When do we start to get the tales of the postal vote turnouts.
& No sex during daylight hours in ramadan. Interesting piece of trivia I didn't know previously !0 -
Managed to fit in Bristol Stapleton Road to Severn Beach on Monday eveningSimonStClare said:
She seems more pen-pal material – Although I’d recommend DrBlue gets a PO.Box number.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I've found a future wife for Sunil
ttps://twitter.com/TheSun/status/867760174655840256 0 -
Do you know what the punishment for sex during Ramadan is?Pulpstar said:When do we start to get the tales of the postal vote turnouts.
& No sex during daylight hours in ramadan. Interesting piece of trivia I didn't know previously !
You have to either fast for a further two months or feed 60 poor people.0 -
Reading Republicans on Twitter victim blame the Guardian journalist is jaw dropping.0
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Not going to ask what Jesus did to justify his punishment of feeding the 5000.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you know what the punishment for sex during Ramadan is?Pulpstar said:When do we start to get the tales of the postal vote turnouts.
& No sex during daylight hours in ramadan. Interesting piece of trivia I didn't know previously !
You have to either fast for a further two months or feed 60 poor people.
0 -
That's hilarious.Pong said:
lol!TheScreamingEagles said:So far Walkers have tweeted out so far Gary Lineker holding up pictures of, inter alia, Rolf Harris, Fred West, Josef Fritzl, and Peter Sutcliffe.
https://twitter.com/JamesLiamCook/status/867756047175487488
Poor Gary. He sold his soul to walkers.0 -
I also see the Edinburgh South is Shadsy's 5th most bet on seat (by volume of bets). A lot of far, far braver people than I doing the betting there.0
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Good afternoon, everyone.0
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Tweeted congratulating a number of paedos and serial killers?RobD said:
Not going to ask what Jesus did to justify his punishment of feeding the 5000.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you know what the punishment for sex during Ramadan is?Pulpstar said:When do we start to get the tales of the postal vote turnouts.
& No sex during daylight hours in ramadan. Interesting piece of trivia I didn't know previously !
You have to either fast for a further two months or feed 60 poor people.0 -
Mr. Urquhart, he could go for 40 days and 40 nights.0
