politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on GE2017 looking a bit more competitive and TMay’s “soci
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The problem with that is that if all politicians follow the route you suggest then no one will ever dare deal with some of the fundamental problems facing the country. They will all just cave at the first sign of opposition. That is no way to govern a country.SeanT said:
It's not "standing up to the pressure", it's releasing a policy in such a cack-handed, self-harming away that is actually imperils your chances of winning an election (certainly in a satisfactory way)Pong said:
It's deeply frustrating.IanB2 said:
That is the one tragic thing. Public services desperately need proper funding, and there is sense in trying to tap into some of the windfall wealth of older property owners. To their credit the LibDems were the first to explore this with their Mansion Tax, Labour had a brave attempt with its estate levy - both savagely and cynically attacked by the Tories, of course - and now even the Tories are prepared to look at it. Inter-generational unfairness will be impossible to deliver if everything has to be paid for by the working age population, or the cost shunted off into the future.Peter_the_Punter said:
That is a heartrending post, Pong, and one with which I can only agree, with great sadness.Pong said:Jeez.
The conservative retired homeowners party haven't got a hope in hell of addressing intergenerational unfairness.
The baby boomers will be protected from the costs of brexit.
The young will pay.
Puts all this GE crap into perspective. Thanks.
Yes, the Tories have made a complete hash of handling the issue from start to finish (or middle, which is probably where we are). But let's not lose sight of the bigger picture.
It's a perfect example of why our political system is too short term and adversarial to tackle the big issues in any sort of sensible way.
There are good people in all parties (possibly barring UKIP!) who get it - and I think TM is one of them. As we've seen today, she just can't stand up to the pressure.
The self inflicted wound is real, the bleeding was significant, the best that can be done is bandage and staunch, and hobble on, hoping for better. You can't just let it bleed out.
She has gone back to being evasive and duplicitous, which is much better.
In the end the policy was sensible and should have been fought for, not dumped as soon as anyone complained about it.0 -
Well it hasn't been dropped entirely, and I suspect the cap will be a fine balance between revenue and reaction.Richard_Tyndall said:
The problem with that is that if all politicians follow the route you suggest then no one will ever dare deal with some of the fundamental problems facing the country. They will all just cave at the first sign of opposition. That is no way to govern a country.SeanT said:
It's not "standing up to the pressure", it's releasing a policy in such a cack-handed, self-harming away that is actually imperils your chances of winning an election (certainly in a satisfactory way)Pong said:
It's deeply frustrating.IanB2 said:
That is the one tragic thing. Public services desperately need proper funding, and there is sense in trying to tap into some of the windfall wealth of older property owners. To their credit the LibDems were the first to explore this with their Mansion Tax, Labour had a brave attempt with its estate levy - both savagely and cynically attacked by the Tories, of course - and now even the Tories are prepared to look at it. Inter-generational unfairness will be impossible to deliver if everything has to be paid for by the working age population, or the cost shunted off into the future.Peter_the_Punter said:
That is a heartrending post, Pong, and one with which I can only agree, with great sadness.Pong said:Jeez.
The conservative retired homeowners party haven't got a hope in hell of addressing intergenerational unfairness.
The baby boomers will be protected from the costs of brexit.
The young will pay.
Puts all this GE crap into perspective. Thanks.
Yes, the Tories have made a complete hash of handling the issue from start to finish (or middle, which is probably where we are). But let's not lose sight of the bigger picture.
It's a perfect example of why our political system is too short term and adversarial to tackle the big issues in any sort of sensible way.
There are good people in all parties (possibly barring UKIP!) who get it - and I think TM is one of them. As we've seen today, she just can't stand up to the pressure.
The self inflicted wound is real, the bleeding was significant, the best that can be done is bandage and staunch, and hobble on, hoping for better. You can't just let it bleed out.
She has gone back to being evasive and duplicitous, which is much better.
In the end the policy was sensible and should have been fought for, not dumped as soon as anyone complained about it.0 -
I think it's more a case of modifying a badly drafted policy than an outright reversal. The principle that property as well as savings should count towards the payment of care costs is maintained. It's a principle which I would support: I believe it was a columnist for this morning's FT who said that there wasn't much to be said for high property prices, but the potential for them to be tapped to pay for care costs was one of the few positives.Pong said:
It's deeply frustrating.IanB2 said:
That is the one tragic thing. Public services desperately need proper funding, and there is sense in trying to tap into some of the windfall wealth of older property owners. To their credit the LibDems were the first to explore this with their Mansion Tax, Labour had a brave attempt with its estate levy - both savagely and cynically attacked by the Tories, of course - and now even the Tories are prepared to look at it. Inter-generational unfairness will be impossible to deliver if everything has to be paid for by the working age population, or the cost shunted off into the future.Peter_the_Punter said:
That is a heartrending post, Pong, and one with which I can only agree, with great sadness.Pong said:Jeez.
The conservative retired homeowners party haven't got a hope in hell of addressing intergenerational unfairness.
The baby boomers will be protected from the costs of brexit.
The young will pay.
Puts all this GE crap into perspective. Thanks.
Yes, the Tories have made a complete hash of handling the issue from start to finish (or middle, which is probably where we are). But let's not lose sight of the bigger picture.
It's a perfect example of why our political system is too short term and adversarial to tackle the big issues in any sort of sensible way.
There are good people in all parties (possibly barring UKIP!) who get it - and I think TM is one of them. As we've seen today, she just can't stand up to the pressure.
Labour, of course, have played this issue unusually well. But has anyone noticed how like the SNP they are becoming? Free tuition fees and the defence of inherited property wealth on one hand. Most of George Osborne's program of benefit cuts upheld on the other. Faux progressive stances masking middle class welfarism.
The big difference, of course, being that the SNP can pay for most of their goodies out of Barnett subsidy. Labour has to find the money from tax and borrowing - until businesses get fed up of investing in Britain and the high earners start to emigrate, at which point the screw of higher income tax and national insurance would doubtless start to be applied further and further down the wage scale...0 -
But it's the truth. What a monumental unforced error.Luckyguy1983 said:
Hugely unprofessional.TheScreamingEagles said:Still think is the story of the day
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/866684809741037573
Just remember in 2015 that sources close to Sir Lynton NEVER EVER complained about Dave or the campaign.
So that's a yuuuuge intervention.0 -
I agree, the trouble is Conservative policy since roughly 1987 has been built around spoiling middle class baby boomers. How do you tell them it's payback time.Richard_Tyndall said:
The problem with that is that if all politicians follow the route you suggest then no one will ever dare deal with some of the fundamental problems facing the country. They will all just cave at the first sign of opposition. That is no way to govern a country.SeanT said:
It's not "standing up to the pressure", it's releasing a policy in such a cack-handed, self-harming away that is actually imperils your chances of winning an election (certainly in a satisfactory way)Pong said:
It's deeply frustrating.IanB2 said:
That is the one tragic thing. Public services desperately need proper funding, and there is sense in trying to tap into some of the windfall wealth of older property owners. To their credit the LibDems were the first to explore this with their Mansion Tax, Labour had a brave attempt with its estate levy - both savagely and cynically attacked by the Tories, of course - and now even the Tories are prepared to look at it. Inter-generational unfairness will be impossible to deliver if everything has to be paid for by the working age population, or the cost shunted off into the future.Peter_the_Punter said:
That is a heartrending post, Pong, and one with which I can only agree, with great sadness.Pong said:Jeez.
The conservative retired homeowners party haven't got a hope in hell of addressing intergenerational unfairness.
The baby boomers will be protected from the costs of brexit.
The young will pay.
Puts all this GE crap into perspective. Thanks.
Yes, the Tories have made a complete hash of handling the issue from start to finish (or middle, which is probably where we are). But let's not lose sight of the bigger picture.
It's a perfect example of why our political system is too short term and adversarial to tackle the big issues in any sort of sensible way.
There are good people in all parties (possibly barring UKIP!) who get it - and I think TM is one of them. As we've seen today, she just can't stand up to the pressure.
The self inflicted wound is real, the bleeding was significant, the best that can be done is bandage and staunch, and hobble on, hoping for better. You can't just let it bleed out.
She has gone back to being evasive and duplicitous, which is much better.
In the end the policy was sensible and should have been fought for, not dumped as soon as anyone complained about it.0 -
Thanks Tyke .We are in bad shape now in sixth league and still awaiting new ground.Sorry for your loss at Wembley .Tykejohnno said:
Congrats on FA trophy.Yorkcity said:Time to send Michael Fallon out again with his back stabbing agenda.
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Well, what is one supposed to make of an 8% swing between two surveys conducted relatively close together? It *might* actually be right, but it does look a bit dodgy. Have the interests of such a substantial proportion of the electorate changed that quickly? Has the electorate grown that volatile? Again, perhaps they have, but it does look a little bit strange.foxinsoxuk said:
A "rogue poll" has always been one that a PB poster disagrees with!Black_Rook said:The Welsh numbers feed into my scepticism about YouGov. Wobbling about all over the place. Am much more inclined to take ICM seriously - they've been very consistent up until today, and the picture they present - of the Tories holding more-or-less stable whilst the anti-Tory vote coalesces around Labour - makes considerably more sense.
Meanwhile, been watching the local news this evening. Anglia are doing a trip down the A10, stopping off at a different town each day to interview people about the election. Today they started off in Downham Market, a town in Norfolk quite a long way from London, which is neither particularly wealthy nor poor. The main subjects raised by the townsfolk were jobs and Brexit. Little sign of a rebellion over elderly care in a place where there aren't too many huge inheritances at stake.0 -
Would be quite amusing if, after everything, the numbers are as they were in 2015.SeanT said:Can we get some PB predix and opinions?
What counts as a disastrous, must-resign result for TMay, what is pretty poor, but maybe survivable, etc?
My thoughts: any result where she actually loses seats, or - heaven forfend - she loses her majority, is a must resign. Though I can see her struggling on for a few months.
25-50 seat majority: very poor, yet perfectly survivable, but many Tories will feel swindled, and it will feel like a defeat
50-80: meh, not great, she is a bit damaged, but people will forget, Brexit next
Over 80: she's almost Boadicea, nice one Theresa, despite the wobbles
Over 120: Fuckyeah0 -
I think rhondda should me more like 1/3 than the 4/5, 4/6 on offer. I'm annoyed I missed the even better prices.Pulpstar said:
Fair play on that one. I'm on the other side but Rhondda and Yns Mons even better Lab bets in my opinion.valleyboy said:I did tell you days ago that Gower was back in play. On these figures it reverts to Labour. Hope you got on at 6/1 like I did.
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Well, I have to eat my words about Theresa May last week re decisiveness. Like the NI rises, this is an totally unforced error and the U-turn suggests a lack of a backbone.
That said, I still remain unconvinced about the apocalyptic narrative coming out from some posters on here. We still see a solid Tory lead in the polls, even though it is down from the 20-point highs of earlier in the campaign. I still think we are going to be seeing a majority touching at 100. The U-turn is highly embarrassing but probably was the only way of killing the narrative at this stage.
I still suspect the Tories will end up with a winning margin of at least 10% with some significant swings in certain seats. However, this latest misfire does suggest that if Labour can get their act together in the next parliament, they could do rather well in 2022, as it suggests that they will be facing a government that could seriously make a hash of things.0 -
It would I still think a 150 Maj for the blues.Still a forgone conclusion.Not as boring as seeing Celtic win the league every year as I thought it would be when the election was announced.KentRising said:
Would be quite amusing if, after everything, the numbers are as they were in 2015.SeanT said:Can we get some PB predix and opinions?
What counts as a disastrous, must-resign result for TMay, what is pretty poor, but maybe survivable, etc?
My thoughts: any result where she actually loses seats, or - heaven forfend - she loses her majority, is a must resign. Though I can see her struggling on for a few months.
25-50 seat majority: very poor, yet perfectly survivable, but many Tories will feel swindled, and it will feel like a defeat
50-80: meh, not great, she is a bit damaged, but people will forget, Brexit next
Over 80: she's almost Boadicea, nice one Theresa, despite the wobbles
Over 120: Fuckyeah0 -
I reckon the truth is somewhere between the two most recent yougovs, what is consistent is the big squeeze on Plaid, UKIP and the Lib Dems.Danny565 said:The YouGov Wales poll has 7% of the 2015 Tory vote going over to Labour. Compared to 5% of the 2015 Lab vote going the other way.
Labour also getting a respectable 29% of the Welsh Leave vote (as well as 57% of the Remain vote).
Politics moving back to the big two in Wales and England.0 -
Just getting on a plane back from Rome so missing the big interview, but all the evidence so far is that there's no change in the Tory share is, which is holding steady at 45-46% give or take MoE. And that's plenty for a comfortable majority.0
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I think the apocalyptic narrative is because posters have had a foretaste of how she will behave when we get down to the business end of Brexit. Black Wednesday on steroids is coming up at some point.numbertwelve said:That said, I still remain unconvinced about the apocalyptic narrative coming out from some posters on here.
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Losing the majority/sub 12 seat majority = She has to go, and will go.SeanT said:Can we get some PB predix and opinions?
What counts as a disastrous, must-resign result for TMay, what is pretty poor, but maybe survivable, etc?
My thoughts: any result where she actually loses seats, or - heaven forfend - she loses her majority, is a must resign. Though I can see her struggling on for a few months.
25-50 seat majority: very poor, yet perfectly survivable, but many Tories will feel swindled, and it will feel like a defeat
50-80: meh, not great, she is a bit damaged, but people will forget, Brexit next
Over 80: she's almost Boadicea, nice one Theresa, despite the wobbles
Over 120: Fuckyeah
Majority 12 - 50 = Embarrassing the closer it is to 12, she'll be forced out during the next Parliament against her will. Remember she was targeting places like Leeds East, West Bromwich East, and Bolsover. Will feel like a missed opportunity. Especially when the campaign started the Tories were at 50%, 25% ahead of Labour
51-99 = Big enough to keep her opponents quiet, she'll only go if Brexit deal is a disaster
100-150 = The Thatcher de nos jours
151-200 = Blairesque
201+ = Boadicea
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She'd be okay from a public opinion point of view but her party would be out to kill her off: to have been thinking a majority of 80+, practically 2021/22 in the bag as well, and then to come in with only a majority of 17 (?) again.....the knives would be out.SeanT said:
Yes, but do you think she could survive that? I think she would try, but in the end she'd be seen as too wounded to continue.KentRising said:
Would be quite amusing if, after everything, the numbers are as they were in 2015.SeanT said:Can we get some PB predix and opinions?
What counts as a disastrous, must-resign result for TMay, what is pretty poor, but maybe survivable, etc?
My thoughts: any result where she actually loses seats, or - heaven forfend - she loses her majority, is a must resign. Though I can see her struggling on for a few months.
25-50 seat majority: very poor, yet perfectly survivable, but many Tories will feel swindled, and it will feel like a defeat
50-80: meh, not great, she is a bit damaged, but people will forget, Brexit next
Over 80: she's almost Boadicea, nice one Theresa, despite the wobbles
Over 120: Fuckyeah0 -
I suspect anything below a majority of 50 probably means her days are numbered. Not immediately, because that would be distracting from Brexit. But there would be a tacit acknowledgement that the leadership will probably change before the next election.SeanT said:Can we get some PB predix and opinions?
What counts as a disastrous, must-resign result for TMay, what is pretty poor, but maybe survivable, etc?
My thoughts: any result where she actually loses seats, or - heaven forfend - she loses her majority, is a must resign. Though I can see her struggling on for a few months.
25-50 seat majority: very poor, yet perfectly survivable, but many Tories will feel swindled, and it will feel like a defeat
50-80: meh, not great, she is a bit damaged, but people will forget, Brexit next
Over 80: she's almost Boadicea, nice one Theresa, despite the wobbles
Over 120: Fuckyeah
From 50-80, I agree with your analysis. I think she can recover from that.0 -
It's possible the Wales poll was reflecting a Rhodri Morgan sympathy vote, in which case the swing could reverse back just as quickly.Black_Rook said:
Well, what is one supposed to make of an 8% swing between two surveys conducted relatively close together? It *might* actually be right, but it does look a bit dodgy. Have the interests of such a substantial proportion of the electorate changed that quickly? Has the electorate grown that volatile? Again, perhaps they have, but it does look a little bit strange.foxinsoxuk said:
A "rogue poll" has always been one that a PB poster disagrees with!Black_Rook said:The Welsh numbers feed into my scepticism about YouGov. Wobbling about all over the place. Am much more inclined to take ICM seriously - they've been very consistent up until today, and the picture they present - of the Tories holding more-or-less stable whilst the anti-Tory vote coalesces around Labour - makes considerably more sense.
Meanwhile, been watching the local news this evening. Anglia are doing a trip down the A10, stopping off at a different town each day to interview people about the election. Today they started off in Downham Market, a town in Norfolk quite a long way from London, which is neither particularly wealthy nor poor. The main subjects raised by the townsfolk were jobs and Brexit. Little sign of a rebellion over elderly care in a place where there aren't too many huge inheritances at stake.0 -
I guess the silver lining in the Yougov Wales for Lib Dems is that Ceredigion is most likely safe. But Cardiff Central looks a distant prospect now.0
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When would the Tories have the opportunity to get rid of her, though? During the Brexit negotiations? Doesn't sound feasible to me.SeanT said:
Yes, but do you think she could survive that? I think she would try, but in the end she'd be seen as too wounded to continue.KentRising said:
Would be quite amusing if, after everything, the numbers are as they were in 2015.SeanT said:Can we get some PB predix and opinions?
What counts as a disastrous, must-resign result for TMay, what is pretty poor, but maybe survivable, etc?
My thoughts: any result where she actually loses seats, or - heaven forfend - she loses her majority, is a must resign. Though I can see her struggling on for a few months.
25-50 seat majority: very poor, yet perfectly survivable, but many Tories will feel swindled, and it will feel like a defeat
50-80: meh, not great, she is a bit damaged, but people will forget, Brexit next
Over 80: she's almost Boadicea, nice one Theresa, despite the wobbles
Over 120: Fuckyeah0 -
Bit of that, and some natural variationchrisb said:
It's possible the Wales poll was reflecting a Rhodri Morgan sympathy vote, in which case the swing could reverse back just as quickly.Black_Rook said:
Well, what is one supposed to make of an 8% swing between two surveys conducted relatively close together? It *might* actually be right, but it does look a bit dodgy. Have the interests of such a substantial proportion of the electorate changed that quickly? Has the electorate grown that volatile? Again, perhaps they have, but it does look a little bit strange.foxinsoxuk said:
A "rogue poll" has always been one that a PB poster disagrees with!Black_Rook said:The Welsh numbers feed into my scepticism about YouGov. Wobbling about all over the place. Am much more inclined to take ICM seriously - they've been very consistent up until today, and the picture they present - of the Tories holding more-or-less stable whilst the anti-Tory vote coalesces around Labour - makes considerably more sense.
Meanwhile, been watching the local news this evening. Anglia are doing a trip down the A10, stopping off at a different town each day to interview people about the election. Today they started off in Downham Market, a town in Norfolk quite a long way from London, which is neither particularly wealthy nor poor. The main subjects raised by the townsfolk were jobs and Brexit. Little sign of a rebellion over elderly care in a place where there aren't too many huge inheritances at stake.
Also I say this quietly but I'm wondering if Yougov has some severe panel effects of the politically overinterested - the politically uninterested are far more Brexity I think, even than leavers on the Yougov Panel. They'll generally be a bit more Tory methinsk..0 -
Soon as she fails.Jason said:
When would the Tories have the opportunity to get rid of her, though? During the Brexit negotiations? Doesn't sound feasible to me.SeanT said:
Yes, but do you think she could survive that? I think she would try, but in the end she'd be seen as too wounded to continue.KentRising said:
Would be quite amusing if, after everything, the numbers are as they were in 2015.SeanT said:Can we get some PB predix and opinions?
What counts as a disastrous, must-resign result for TMay, what is pretty poor, but maybe survivable, etc?
My thoughts: any result where she actually loses seats, or - heaven forfend - she loses her majority, is a must resign. Though I can see her struggling on for a few months.
25-50 seat majority: very poor, yet perfectly survivable, but many Tories will feel swindled, and it will feel like a defeat
50-80: meh, not great, she is a bit damaged, but people will forget, Brexit next
Over 80: she's almost Boadicea, nice one Theresa, despite the wobbles
Over 120: Fuckyeah0 -
Boris is charming certainly - but I'd say is far more ruthless and calculating than Godfrey.Chris said:
You may be right. In suggesting Wilson I'd seen her as grey and ineffectual.Monksfield said:
May is clearly Mainwaring... Incompetent and blustery..rkrkrk said:
Theresa is clearly Captain May-nwaring. As some have noticed:Chris said:
Wouldn't it be more fun to identify politicians as members of the Dad's Army cast?Jason said:
Looks like we have not one, but two characters from Dad's Army now - Corporal Jones (Sean T), and now Private Frazer.dyedwoolie said:
I don't think she will. I think the games up and it's gonna be a 2001 result - little change, but a collapse in confidence in her and Brussels planning an extra 50 billion bill.SouthamObserver said:
She'll win easily. And that's when her - and our - troubles will really begin.dyedwoolie said:
Shes awful on any level. So is Jezza. And Tim. It's a paucity of talent.Ishmael_Z said:
You are confident she won't u-turn on the u-turn?dyedwoolie said:The u turn was a huge mistake. She should have taken the hit and moved the headlines on
"These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others".
She'll probably fall over the line with the help of Brexiteers but will look like an idiot for calling the election. On the other hand, maybe the electorate will say you know what? Screw this,. And vote for something odd.
Theresa May as Sergeant Wilson, Nigel Farage as Private Walker, Tim Farron as the Verger (obviously) and so on? Still trying to figure out where Jeremy Corbyn fits in.
Hammond almost reminds me of Arthur le mesurier...
https://www.thedailysatire.co.uk/single-post/2017/05/22/Day-32-33-Mums-Army-Tries-Not-to-Panic?
I'd cast Corbyn as Godfrey.
Private Godfrey perhaps= Boris Johnson thirty years on.0 -
Given 80 was an Boadicea-like for performance for SeanT, what would a 200 majority be?TheScreamingEagles said:
Losing the majority/sub 12 seat majority = She has to go, and will go.SeanT said:Can we get some PB predix and opinions?
What counts as a disastrous, must-resign result for TMay, what is pretty poor, but maybe survivable, etc?
My thoughts: any result where she actually loses seats, or - heaven forfend - she loses her majority, is a must resign. Though I can see her struggling on for a few months.
25-50 seat majority: very poor, yet perfectly survivable, but many Tories will feel swindled, and it will feel like a defeat
50-80: meh, not great, she is a bit damaged, but people will forget, Brexit next
Over 80: she's almost Boadicea, nice one Theresa, despite the wobbles
Over 120: Fuckyeah
Majority 12 - 50 = Embarrassing the closer it is to 12, she'll be forced out during the next Parliament against her will. Remember she was targeting places like Leeds East, West Bromwich East, and Bolsover. Will feel like a missed opportunity. Especially when the campaign started the Tories were at 50%, 25% ahead of Labour
51-99 = Big enough to keep her opponents quiet, she'll only go if Brexit deal is a disaster
100-150 = The Thatcher de nos hours
151-200 = Blairesque
201+ = Boadicea
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Time to get the popcorn out.0
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prediction: when all is said and done this will wake them out of their complacency and they will uo their game now. No more campaigining in Bolsover ffs. 80 seat majority.SeanT said:Can we get some PB predix and opinions?
What counts as a disastrous, must-resign result for TMay, what is pretty poor, but maybe survivable, etc?
My thoughts: any result where she actually loses seats, or - heaven forfend - she loses her majority, is a must resign. Though I can see her struggling on for a few months.
25-50 seat majority: very poor, yet perfectly survivable, but many Tories will feel swindled, and it will feel like a defeat
50-80: meh, not great, she is a bit damaged, but people will forget, Brexit next
Over 80: she's almost Boadicea, nice one Theresa, despite the wobbles
Over 120: Fuckyeah
A very good result, well worth it.
majority of 20-40 she will be weakened as her backbenchers will control her now demanding hard brexit, may have to quit within a couple of years.
40-70 meh, she will survive but disappointing considering the opposition, will feel like a defeat.
80-100 Victory! a strong hand in Brexit.
100+ God I hope not. If she was this arrogant and complacent with a majority of 20 she will be unbearable with one this big.0 -
UKIP party election broadcast - piss poor.0
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If it is looking like WTO and even most Leavers accept that will be a disaster, then she might be forced out then, replaced by someone like Gove who might be more pragmatic, a sort of only Nixon could go to China moment.SeanT said:
It all depends on the bulk of opinion in the Parliamentary Tory party after this GE. If the majority of Tory MPs would prefer a Soft Brexit, and Single Market, then TMay is in trouble if she goes for Hard Brexit.Jason said:
When would the Tories have the opportunity to get rid of her, though? During the Brexit negotiations? Doesn't sound feasible to me.SeanT said:
Yes, but do you think she could survive that? I think she would try, but in the end she'd be seen as too wounded to continue.KentRising said:
Would be quite amusing if, after everything, the numbers are as they were in 2015.SeanT said:Can we get some PB predix and opinions?
What counts as a disastrous, must-resign result for TMay, what is pretty poor, but maybe survivable, etc?
My thoughts: any result where she actually loses seats, or - heaven forfend - she loses her majority, is a must resign. Though I can see her struggling on for a few months.
25-50 seat majority: very poor, yet perfectly survivable, but many Tories will feel swindled, and it will feel like a defeat
50-80: meh, not great, she is a bit damaged, but people will forget, Brexit next
Over 80: she's almost Boadicea, nice one Theresa, despite the wobbles
Over 120: Fuckyeah
But maybe there will be a Hard Brexit maj within Tory ranks. Who the F knows.0 -
Ok .... The PM mounts the scaffold ....0
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"There's only one poll that counts...."
Yawn.0 -
I wonder if she will U-tern about holding an early General Election next?0
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Q1) What Theresa can't say: Labour is munching the left wing vote.0
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tory majority over 100 is still odds on everywhere. money to be made if you think that's incorrect and they fail to get there.nunu said:
prediction: when all is said and done this will wake them out of their complacency and they will uo their game now. No more campaigining in Bolsover ffs. 80 seat majority.SeanT said:Can we get some PB predix and opinions?
What counts as a disastrous, must-resign result for TMay, what is pretty poor, but maybe survivable, etc?
My thoughts: any result where she actually loses seats, or - heaven forfend - she loses her majority, is a must resign. Though I can see her struggling on for a few months.
25-50 seat majority: very poor, yet perfectly survivable, but many Tories will feel swindled, and it will feel like a defeat
50-80: meh, not great, she is a bit damaged, but people will forget, Brexit next
Over 80: she's almost Boadicea, nice one Theresa, despite the wobbles
Over 120: Fuckyeah
A very good result, well worth it.
majority of 20-40 she will be weakened as her backbenchers will control her now demanding hard brexit, may have to quit within a couple of years.
40-70 meh, she will survive but disappointing considering the opposition, will feel like a defeat.
80-100 Victory! a strong hand in Brexit.
100+ God I hope not. If she was this arrogant and complacent with a majority of 20 she will be unbearable with one this big.0 -
T May coming across well I think.0
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May just needs a competent performance against Neil..0
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Bwahaha. The look on her face...0
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Think Jim hacker. Trying not to.0
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Well Mrs May isn't far off being one of them (baby boomers) having been born in 1956.Monksfield said:(snipped)
I agree, the trouble is Conservative policy since roughly 1987 has been built around spoiling middle class baby boomers. How do you tell them it's payback time.
If it's impossible to get relevant policies into the manifesto for fear that Mr Corbyn will end up PM, she's likely to have a fight with the Lords I should think. Many of them will be real baby boomers.0 -
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The way the labels for their key policy points came up in a different order from the narrator's reading them out was nifty; it kept the interest.JackW said:
It was brilliant.Pulpstar said:UKIP party election broadcast - piss poor.
How could it be anything other with His Imperial Deity Nuttall on camera.
The references to "ordinary decent people" reminded me of a party that used to campaign many years gone by.
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So Jeremy Corbyn is writing the manifesto. Loooll0
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Corbyn "sneak into no 10". How dare he?0
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Several surely ....MarqueeMark said:0 -
May: "You can ignore it or you can play politics with it." Errr....0
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TM annoyed people "playing politics" during her coronation, sorry General Election campaign.0
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Monksfield said:
(snipped)
I agree, the trouble is Conservative policy since roughly 1987 has been built around spoiling middle class baby boomers. How do you tell them it's payback time.
It was Labour that brought in all the pensioner perks...
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This is once again embarrassing.0
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Theresa going on and on about no-one will have to pay in their lifetime, not have to move out, protecting their £100,000....
Should get the message across to those who haven't been paying much attention.0 -
Fake claims - trumpette time!0
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LOL First time in history a party has broken a Manifesto promise before the Election has taken place0
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Playing the 'sensible' and 'brave' card. Probably the best way to deal with it.0
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Her catchphrase is:
"Me or Jeremy Corbyn"
Repeating it endlessly.0 -
yeah, choose dullness...SeanT said:That's right Theresa. Bore 'em to death. Best way. You go girl.
https://youtu.be/RCxgqHqakXc
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But people like my Mother in law froth at the mouth at the thought she might not be able to leave her house to her kids. She will hate this.MarqueeMark said:Theresa going on and on about no-one will have to pay in their lifetime, not have to move out, protecting their £100,000....
Should get the message across to those who haven't been paying much attention.0 -
irregular verb:
I address concerns.
He plays politics.0 -
What will the future hold for polling if after this election it is found that there is still a problem with sampling? 4-5 years ago I used to fill in frequent surveys for YouGov to try to get my points up to £50 worth. After a while I started to get asked to do political polls quite regularly. It almost felt like a reward for ploughing through all the dreary stuff. Now I only do occasional surveys and have not been asked to do a political one for over three years. Perhaps my demographic is over-represented. Has anyone else found this?Pulpstar said:
Bit of that, and some natural variationchrisb said:
It's possible the Wales poll was reflecting a Rhodri Morgan sympathy vote, in which case the swing could reverse back just as quickly.Black_Rook said:
Well, what is one supposed to make of an 8% swing between two surveys conducted relatively close together? It *might* actually be right, but it does look a bit dodgy. Have the interests of such a substantial proportion of the electorate changed that quickly? Has the electorate grown that volatile? Again, perhaps they have, but it does look a little bit strange.foxinsoxuk said:
A "rogue poll" has always been one that a PB poster disagrees with!Black_Rook said:The Welsh numbers feed into my scepticism about YouGov. Wobbling about all over the place. Am much more inclined to take ICM seriously - they've been very consistent up until today, and the picture they present - of the Tories holding more-or-less stable whilst the anti-Tory vote coalesces around Labour - makes considerably more sense.
Meanwhile, been watching the local news this evening. Anglia are doing a trip down the A10, stopping off at a different town each day to interview people about the election. Today they started off in Downham Market, a town in Norfolk quite a long way from London, which is neither particularly wealthy nor poor. The main subjects raised by the townsfolk were jobs and Brexit. Little sign of a rebellion over elderly care in a place where there aren't too many huge inheritances at stake.
Also I say this quietly but I'm wondering if Yougov has some severe panel effects of the politically overinterested - the politically uninterested are far more Brexity I think, even than leavers on the Yougov Panel. They'll generally be a bit more Tory methinsk..0 -
I was hoping to see Andrew Neil interview the Prime Minister, what I'm getting instead is Andrew Neil interviewing a robot0
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Its just embarassingMarqueeMark said:Theresa going on and on about no-one will have to pay in their lifetime, not have to move out, protecting their £100,000....
Should get the message across to those who haven't been paying much attention.0 -
Your ability to answer this question may be in doubt Prime Minister.
Ouch.0 -
This.williamglenn said:
I think the apocalyptic narrative is because posters have had a foretaste of how she will behave when we get down to the business end of Brexit. Black Wednesday on steroids is coming up at some point.numbertwelve said:That said, I still remain unconvinced about the apocalyptic narrative coming out from some posters on here.
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Neil's style slightly different to Daily Politics.
Fractionally slower pace, gives slightly more room for her to answer.0 -
If you tell them you are a 100% Tory/ Lab/ Lib Dem, they only poll you once in a millennium. If you tell them you are a swing voter, I reckon you get polled all the time...Clown_Car_HQ said:
What will the future hold for polling if after this election it is found that there is still a problem with sampling? 4-5 years ago I used to fill in frequent surveys for YouGov to try to get my points up to £50 worth. After a while I started to get asked to do political polls quite regularly. It almost felt like a reward for ploughing through all the dreary stuff. Now I only do occasional surveys and have not been asked to do a political one for over three years. Perhaps my demographic is over-represented. Has anyone else found this?Pulpstar said:
Bit of that, and some natural variationchrisb said:
It's possible the Wales poll was reflecting a Rhodri Morgan sympathy vote, in which case the swing could reverse back just as quickly.Black_Rook said:
Well, what is one supposed to make of an 8% swing between two surveys conducted relatively close together? It *might* actually be right, but it does look a bit dodgy. Have the interests of such a substantial proportion of the electorate changed that quickly? Has the electorate grown that volatile? Again, perhaps they have, but it does look a little bit strange.foxinsoxuk said:
A "rogue poll" has always been one that a PB poster disagrees with!Black_Rook said:The Welsh numbers feed into my scepticism about YouGov. Wobbling about all over the place. Am much more inclined to take ICM seriously - they've been very consistent up until today, and the picture they present - of the Tories holding more-or-less stable whilst the anti-Tory vote coalesces around Labour - makes considerably more sense.
Meanwhile, been watching the local news this evening. Anglia are doing a trip down the A10, stopping off at a different town each day to interview people about the election. Today they started off in Downham Market, a town in Norfolk quite a long way from London, which is neither particularly wealthy nor poor. The main subjects raised by the townsfolk were jobs and Brexit. Little sign of a rebellion over elderly care in a place where there aren't too many huge inheritances at stake.
Also I say this quietly but I'm wondering if Yougov has some severe panel effects of the politically overinterested - the politically uninterested are far more Brexity I think, even than leavers on the Yougov Panel. They'll generally be a bit more Tory methinsk..0 -
Yes, I agree. It is hard for people to lay a finger on her because she goes into dull bluster mode. But she's not doing herself any more harm, which is the whole aim of this interview.SeanT said:Doing OK on a sticky wicket. So far.
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We could do with an interest rate rise.The_Apocalypse said:
This.williamglenn said:
I think the apocalyptic narrative is because posters have had a foretaste of how she will behave when we get down to the business end of Brexit. Black Wednesday on steroids is coming up at some point.numbertwelve said:That said, I still remain unconvinced about the apocalyptic narrative coming out from some posters on here.
0 -
So is "a variety of sources", a Conservative "magic money tree?"0
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So when does May ask for a leaders debate?0
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pb is always good for obscure cultural references.
I'm hardly Theresa May's biggest fan but she seems to me to be doing fine. I can't for the life of me understand why any politician agrees to be interviewed by Andrew Neil.0 -
I'm saving "embarrassing" for Neil interviewing Corbyn on Friday.....bigjohnowls said:
Its just embarassingMarqueeMark said:Theresa going on and on about no-one will have to pay in their lifetime, not have to move out, protecting their £100,000....
Should get the message across to those who haven't been paying much attention.0 -
15 mins and I'm bored now. No content.0
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How much longer....Let's just get this over without any more feck ups0
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£8bn per head???0
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Andre Neill has realised he doesn't want PM Corbyn I reckon xD0
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is that it?
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He really is great.AlastairMeeks said:pb is always good for obscure cultural references.
I'm hardly Theresa May's biggest fan but she seems to me to be doing fine. I can't for the life of me understand why any politician agrees to be interviewed by Andrew Neil.0 -
0
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Just ask Cammo and ozzie and brown.....all ducked them I thinkAlastairMeeks said:pb is always good for obscure cultural references.
I'm hardly Theresa May's biggest fan but she seems to me to be doing fine. I can't for the life of me understand why any politician agrees to be interviewed by Andrew Neil.0 -
0
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We are probably heading for an environment of inflation exceeding interest rates, so even if the nominal rate is ticked up a fraction, in effect real rates will be negative.tlg86 said:
We could do with an interest rate rise.The_Apocalypse said:
This.williamglenn said:
I think the apocalyptic narrative is because posters have had a foretaste of how she will behave when we get down to the business end of Brexit. Black Wednesday on steroids is coming up at some point.numbertwelve said:That said, I still remain unconvinced about the apocalyptic narrative coming out from some posters on here.
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"We won't promise to lower taxes but you know we don't want to...honest...."0
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I prefer the term "Artificial Person" myself.TheScreamingEagles said:I was hoping to see Andrew Neil interview the Prime Minister, what I'm getting instead is Andrew Neil interviewing a robot
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Incredibly dull.The_Apocalypse said:
Mummy's got her hat back on.0 -
Immigration next?0
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May twice in a few months.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Just ask Cammo and ozzie and brown.....all ducked them I thinkAlastairMeeks said:pb is always good for obscure cultural references.
I'm hardly Theresa May's biggest fan but she seems to me to be doing fine. I can't for the life of me understand why any politician agrees to be interviewed by Andrew Neil.
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He is genuinely scary. So quick , so informed, brutal with waffle.AlastairMeeks said:pb is always good for obscure cultural references.
I'm hardly Theresa May's biggest fan but she seems to me to be doing fine. I can't for the life of me understand why any politician agrees to be interviewed by Andrew Neil.
She could be doing worse. I can't see Corbyn cope with this.0 -
How about boring and incompetentSeanT said:
We WANT a robot. Someone boring but competent. Ahem.TheScreamingEagles said:I was hoping to see Andrew Neil interview the Prime Minister, what I'm getting instead is Andrew Neil interviewing a robot
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The Nuclear bomb for Corbyn is going to be the Monarchy.
Will Andrew Neil explode it when he interviews Corbyn on Friday?0 -
Thanks Mr mason for the impartial coveragebigjohnowls said:0 -
Lot of bluster, very little facts.0
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You're a home owner, aren't you?IanB2 said:
We are probably heading for an environment of inflation exceeding interest rates, so even if the nominal rate is ticked up a fraction, in effect real rates will be negative.tlg86 said:
We could do with an interest rate rise.The_Apocalypse said:
This.williamglenn said:
I think the apocalyptic narrative is because posters have had a foretaste of how she will behave when we get down to the business end of Brexit. Black Wednesday on steroids is coming up at some point.numbertwelve said:That said, I still remain unconvinced about the apocalyptic narrative coming out from some posters on here.
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May lacks the ability to properly articulate and sell her vision I think.0
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This is putting her on the spot re. JAMS. Its mostly waffle0
