another_richard said:

I wonder if OGH has ever thought of offering PB as a giant focus group to politicians.

We would be a better and cheaper sounding board than their arselicking spads.

I was thinking that very thought moments ago.

How do so many fuckwits get so far in politics? Is it because the sane amongst us can't be arsed?

Beverley_C said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

Scott_P said:

CarlottaVance said:

Commission negotiating documents which are shared with EU Member States, the European Council, the European Parliament, the Council, national parliaments, and the United Kingdom will be released to the public

PMSL

And then there is this.... "A French lawyer ... Julien Fouchet ... [a] European law specialist from Bordeaux wants to challenge the validity of the EU negotiations on the basis the procedure was flawed ...
It will call for the cancellation of the Brexit negotiating directives drafted by the EU, which are due to be adopted on 22 May, on the basis the referendum breached the rights of the UK citizens who were denied the vote. "

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-talks-illegal-uk-expats-british-abroad-not-vote-french-lawyer-julien-fouchet-european-a7745216.html

Meaningless, since the referendum was advisory only.

In fact, the Supreme Court saved Theresa's bacon. She was insisting going ahead without a parliamentary vote.

Yes, but the other side of the coin is that, regardless of our legal system, the Commission has to follow the EU's legal system. We need two sides to negotiate.

All the treaty required is that A50 was declared "in accordance with its own constitutional requirements". That has been done.

Barnesian said:

Bob__Sykes said:

And I think the Neil interview tonight could actually be more brutal than it might have been half an hour ago.

In more reflective terms I remember us pb Tories getting all terribly excited on Bigotgate Day but it didn't result in a wipeout for Brown; it hardly had any traction at all with the voting public. This might blow over too.

Andrew Neil, who will be now preparing for this interview, has a big problem.

It is in his power to utterly destroy May's reputation credibility and leave the way open for a minority government led by Corbyn.

Or pull his punches and destroy his own reputation and credibility.

What is he to do?

He'll go really hard on Mrs May, as he should.

He'll also be going really hard on Mr Corbyn, and a u-turn on social care is small beer compared to support for the IRA.

Couple of points.

Democracy in action I guess, the people have blown a raspberry and the (current) powers that be have gone into an emergency handbrake turn. So "good" in that narrow sense.

You give the impression (even unwittingly, and out of good intentions) of threatening people's homes in this country, and you won't last to the next news cycle. It engendered a "flight or fight" response - all parties will note that.

By far the most shambolic few days I can ever remember in any general election. Ever, from anyone. Even fictional.

This what happens when govts think they have no serious opposition. Sloppy proposals come out. It was "brave", it does try to tackle something that we all need to resolve, and this will now shoot right up the agenda for whoever is in No 10 on June 9th. But you do not insert into your manifesto very complex policy and detail like this on the hoof 21 days before an election.

Whoever is responsible in Tory HQ is, I assume, searching the sits vac for a whelk stall to run.

Meanwhile Labour are running up the country's bar bill like a drunk that's left his wallet at home but still wants to buy everyone a round.

chestnut said:

The Tories are not losing votes to Labour - they are losing some to 'not sure' and 'might not bother'. They are fortunate that UKIP are not around.

Definitely not true unless people are fibbing on the doorstep

another_richard said:

I wonder if OGH has ever thought of offering PB as a giant focus group to politicians.

We would be a better and cheaper sounding board than their arselicking spads.

True, the reactions on here are so quick and the political mix ensures that all sides of the argument get an airing.

TGOHF said:

isam said:

970 comments about this U turn/disaster for TM the PM, but no betting advice?

Deep down the frothers know its not going to change the result much.

I backed under 177.5 Labour seats on Betfair at EVS trying to swim against the tide, it was tipped up as shrewd to be on under 160 not a fortnight ago.

Mind you its 11/10 now!

logical_song said:

another_richard said:

I wonder if OGH has ever thought of offering PB as a giant focus group to politicians.

We would be a better and cheaper sounding board than their arselicking spads.

True, the reactions on here are so quick and the political mix ensures that all sides of the argument get an airing.

i think some of us on here were saying this was a disaster within about ten secs of her speaking about it during her launch.

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Cyan said:

If it has been utterly destroyed, the Tories are out. If anything a major party says can start to look paper-thin quickly, it's a promise from a sitting government that things are going to be OK when living conditions and expectations have fallen for years.

Not so, for the very obvious reason that Theresa May and the Tories are the only game in town. Labour aren't even pretending to be a credible alternative government.

I suspect Labour's ever-growing list of spending promises will not do it any good.

There's a tipping point where people switch from being greedy to being suspicious and then cynical and then angry.

The trick is to make the maximum number of promises that people will believe but not to go so far you start losing more votes from the extra promises than they bring in.

The IFS manifesto review tomorrow wil be interesting especially on tax raising, including corporation tax

bigjohnowls said:

MarqueeMark said:

bigjohnowls said:

MarqueeMark said:

bigjohnowls said:

Yvette Cooper‏Verified account @YvetteCooperMP 2m2 minutes ago
More
So it's an optional cap at unspecified level to be included in a future consultation? Can't even do a competent u-turn. Still a #dementiatax

It still has more detail than Labour's position on care costs....

Thats true. As long as that continues for next 17 days job done.

Oh, I think Labour's position might just come under scrutiny next.... and their hypocrisy.

You told me this was a none issue at the Weekend so your view doesnt count

It won't be me asking the questions.

And not a non-issue - just brave, to do what is fair.

If Corbyn's Labour had a positive, easily-understood alternative, he might have been able to make some hay. But if you are worried about your inheritance, you are even more worried about how COrbyn's Labour are looking at umpteen ways to milk you.

I also find it a tad ironic that you are cheer-leading for a party full of people who had more sympathy with the aims of the attacker on that Tunisian beach, than you, holed up in that hotel.

Ishmael_Z said:

1006th btw, is this the longest evah thread?

No, I remember one that hit 1350. There may have been even longer ones.

Ishmael_Z said:

1006th btw, is this the longest evah thread?

Nope. We got over 2,000 when I did the 2015 exit poll thread.

chestnut said:

The Tories are not losing votes to Labour.

Yes, they are. Or at least, losing votes they would have had; I've not seen any Con(2015) to Lab switching.

bobajobPB said:

I am starting to think that Theresa May is a Corbynista plant. Not in his wildest dreams could Big Jezza have imagined how pisspoor a campaigner she would be.

They knew what they were doing when they kept her away from a televised debate that's for sure.

bigjohnowls said:

Ministers now saying they were only talking about Dilnot's cap when they rejected it

So the cap is greater than £78k then.

Of course. The question is how much bigger.

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

dyedwoolie said:

I'm not even sure this u turn solves the issue. People aren't concerned about a cap, they are pissed at the prospect of having to pay at all. Whatever the realities of the situation, they are trying to sell a cup of sick. Should have avoided.

Exactly. A lot of the problem wasn't the plan, it was highlighting (and therefore taking ownership of) the existing set up.

Hmm. Remember: most people only listen to the soundbites and the headlines. They don't do political detail.

What's the big story of today? - TORY U-TURN. That precise phrase is trending number one on Twitter. So everyone will now think "Oh that horrible Tory policy has been ditched", and their anger will abate. TORY U-TURN is the meme that the Tories want out there, and they want it constantly repeated, and Labour are doing that job for them.

It won't be nice for Tory egos, but TORY U-TURN will drain the poison of DEMENTIA TAX - another simple, slightly deceitful and very powerful meme.

HMS TMay has taken some incoming, she's not holed below the waterline, yet.

It may also bring into play labour and lib dems proposals, their cap, and how they would pay for it

Pulpstar said:

Carolus_Rex said:

And what is Lynton Crosby up to? Has somebody put something in his tea, or are they just not listening to him?

Manifesto was never put in front of Lynton I bet before publication. He'd have spotted this a mile off.

Absolute bollocks, as Emily Thornberry might say.

Why is Crosby thought of as infallible on here?

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

dyedwoolie said:

I'm not even sure this u turn solves the issue. People aren't concerned about a cap, they are pissed at the prospect of having to pay at all. Whatever the realities of the situation, they are trying to sell a cup of sick. Should have avoided.

Exactly. A lot of the problem wasn't the plan, it was highlighting (and therefore taking ownership of) the existing set up.

Hmm. Remember: most people only listen to the soundbites and the headlines. They don't do political detail.

What's the big story of today? - TORY U-TURN. That precise phrase is trending number one on Twitter. So everyone will now think "Oh that horrible Tory policy has been ditched", and their anger will abate. TORY U-TURN is the meme that the Tories want out there, and they want it constantly repeated, and Labour are doing that job for them.

It won't be nice for Tory egos, but TORY U-TURN will drain the poison of DEMENTIA TAX - another simple, slightly deceitful and very powerful meme.

HMS TMay has taken some incoming, she's not holed below the waterline, yet.

U-TURN can be good, as you say. "PARTIAL AND UNCLEAR U-TURN WHICH THEY SAY ISN'T A U-TURN", not so much.

williamglenn said:

PeterMannion said:

So predictable

2 u-turns in 2 months, I look forward to the next 2 years...

The big one will be over a second EU referendum. There's no other way to get off the massive hook the government is on.

The LDs complete failure this election on a second referendum platform means that is now dead, if May wins it is Brexit and no free movement, no single market membership and no €100 billion to the EU

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

The Tories are not losing votes to Labour - they are losing some to 'not sure' and 'might not bother'. They are fortunate that UKIP are not around.

Exactly, and many of them will still turn out and vote Tory. It is the opposite of the Labour DNV effect.

Sorry the Conservatives are losing pensioners votes to Labour directly over the WFA .

Sandpit said:

He'll also be going really hard on Mr Corbyn, and a u-turn on social care is small beer compared to support for the IRA.

Really? The thing about 1983 and 1992 when the Tories also ran very negative campaigns against the leader of the opposition was that they focused on the opposition manifesto.

In 2017 the IRA isn't even mentioned in the Labour manifesto, which isn't surprising since it hasn't existed for many years. Moreover, practically everyone thinks that the eventual cooperation between Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness was a good thing, and much better than people getting killed. Ken Livingstone was actually right when he said there would come a day when IRA leaders would shake hands with the queen. Never mind that Corbyn talked crap about the IRA in the 1980s, or even that they were a murderous gangster organisation (which they were) - who cares?

I'd be really surprised if the "Corbyn IRA" line from the Tories was properly tested in focus groups against other issues.

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

isam said:

970 comments about this U turn/disaster for TM the PM, but no betting advice?

Look at the next PM markets. And TM exit dates

I have no idea about the Next PM market. There's a good article to be written after the GE about it but so much depends on the result and the reshuffle (assuming there is one), not to mention the timing of a vacancy. There is no Tory heir apparent at the moment.

Out of curiosity may I ask where you were canvassing the other day ?

Which other day? I've been out a lot this last month.

isam said:

MarqueeMark said:

bigjohnowls said:

MarqueeMark said:

bigjohnowls said:

MarqueeMark said:

bigjohnowls said:

Yvette Cooper‏Verified account @YvetteCooperMP 2m2 minutes ago
More
So it's an optional cap at unspecified level to be included in a future consultation? Can't even do a competent u-turn. Still a #dementiatax

It still has more detail than Labour's position on care costs....

Thats true. As long as that continues for next 17 days job done.

Oh, I think Labour's position might just come under scrutiny next.... and their hypocrisy.

You told me this was a none issue at the Weekend so your view doesnt count

It won't be me asking the questions.

And not a non-issue - just brave, to do what is fair.

If Corbyn's Labour had a positive, easily-understood alternative, he might have been able to make some hay. But if you are worried about your inheritance, you are even more worried about how COrbyn's Labour are looking at umpteen ways to milk you.

I also find it a tad ironic that you are cheer-leading for a party full of people who had more sympathy with the aims of the attacker on that Tunisian beach, than you, holed up in that hotel.

All shootings are wrong, whether they be Islamic terrorists killing British holidaymakers, or tragedies like the death of Osama Bin Laden

Thank you for calling the show, Jeremy from North London there.....

https://twitter.com/ChurchofSatan/status/866453928535236608

SandyRentool said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SandyRentool said:

bobajobPB said:

Bob__Sykes said:

And I think the Neil interview tonight could actually be more brutal than it might have been half an hour ago.

In more reflective terms I remember us pb Tories getting all terribly excited on Bigotgate Day but it didn't result in a wipeout for Brown; it hardly had any traction at all with the voting public. This might blow over too.

Mrs Duffy was in fact a bigot so Gordo was only telling the truth.

Something we agree on!

Transcript:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/28/gordon-brown-gillian-duffy-transcript

Could you highlight the exact words that show her to be a bigot? Bearing in mind Brown himself withdrew the allegation.

"Where are they all flocking from?"

At the time I said that I was sure Brown had misheard her and was embarrassed that a Labour voter had used the f word on live TV

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?

Very low, even allowing for the fact that in the Tory Party, you don't 'challenge' for the leadership. It's not 1990.

The problem that May has is that she's not really suited to electioneering. That skillset, however, is very different from the one needed to run a government or lead negotiations.

She also really REALLY needs to widen her circle of advisors. She HAS to learn from this disaster. Get out of the bunker, put Timothy and Hill back in their box, get some smart people who will answer back or correct her.

This debacle all comes from her reliance on a tiny group of wonks that have been with her for yonks. Not healthy.

True. And worse, her advisors don't have the broad policy or political background that a LotO would take into No 10. The demands of the Home Office are much more limited, not only in policy (obviously) but also in political leadership. That applies to the private office as much as to the politician.

It's time for the PB Tories to take over! DH can be PM, RobD can have 'spreadsheet Phil's' job and SeanT gets to do foreign affairs! TSE can be Lynton if he wants....

HYUFD said:

dyedwoolie said:

I'm not even sure this u turn solves the issue. People aren't concerned about a cap, they are pissed at the prospect of having to pay at all. Whatever the realities of the situation, they are trying to sell a cup of sick. Should have avoided.

Politically it was bad but financially we have to pay more for personal social care at home, not just residential care, it was just a sledgehammer was used to crack a nut, hence the u turn

What is really needed is a cross party consensus on this subject.

"A cross-party commission should be set up to review the future of the NHS and social care in England, a trio of former health ministers say.
Ex-health secretaries Stephen Dorrell and Alan Milburn and Lib Dem MP Norman Lamb say without radical change, the future looks bleak.
Mr Lamb will raise the issue in Parliament on Wednesday, warning that the systems could crash without action."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35233346

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

dyedwoolie said:

I'm not even sure this u turn solves the issue. People aren't concerned about a cap, they are pissed at the prospect of having to pay at all. Whatever the realities of the situation, they are trying to sell a cup of sick. Should have avoided.

Exactly. A lot of the problem wasn't the plan, it was highlighting (and therefore taking ownership of) the existing set up.

Hmm. Remember: most people only listen to the soundbites and the headlines. They don't do political detail.

What's the big story of today? - TORY U-TURN. That precise phrase is trending number one on Twitter. So everyone will now think "Oh that horrible Tory policy has been ditched", and their anger will abate. TORY U-TURN is the meme that the Tories want out there, and they want it constantly repeated, and Labour are doing that job for them.

It won't be nice for Tory egos, but TORY U-TURN will drain the poison of DEMENTIA TAX - another simple, slightly deceitful and very powerful meme.

HMS TMay has taken some incoming, she's not holed below the waterline, yet.

U-TURN can be good, as you say. "PARTIAL AND UNCLEAR U-TURN WHICH THEY SAY ISN'T A U-TURN", not so much.

This is a good u-turn, as long as the cap is something that people can feel is not ridiculous, such as £500K or whatever.

She says it will be consulted on so no doubt Dilnot and other experts will present their views

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/ChurchofSatan/status/866453928535236608

It does look like one weird version of Family Fortunes.

Fingers on buzzers....

TudorRose said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?

Very low, even allowing for the fact that in the Tory Party, you don't 'challenge' for the leadership. It's not 1990.

The problem that May has is that she's not really suited to electioneering. That skillset, however, is very different from the one needed to run a government or lead negotiations.

She also really REALLY needs to widen her circle of advisors. She HAS to learn from this disaster. Get out of the bunker, put Timothy and Hill back in their box, get some smart people who will answer back or correct her.

This debacle all comes from her reliance on a tiny group of wonks that have been with her for yonks. Not healthy.

True. And worse, her advisors don't have the broad policy or political background that a LotO would take into No 10. The demands of the Home Office are much more limited, not only in policy (obviously) but also in political leadership. That applies to the private office as much as to the politician.

It's time for the PB Tories to take over! DH can be PM, RobD can have 'spreadsheet Phil's' job and SeanT gets to do foreign affairs! TSE can be Lynton if he wants....

Who plays Priti?

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?

Very low, even allowing for the fact that in the Tory Party, you don't 'challenge' for the leadership. It's not 1990.

The problem that May has is that she's not really suited to electioneering. That skillset, however, is very different from the one needed to run a government or lead negotiations.

She also really REALLY needs to widen her circle of advisors. She HAS to learn from this disaster. Get out of the bunker, put Timothy and Hill back in their box, get some smart people who will answer back or correct her.

This debacle all comes from her reliance on a tiny group of wonks that have been with her for yonks. Not healthy.

True. And worse, her advisors don't have the broad policy or political background that a LotO would take into No 10. The demands of the Home Office are much more limited, not only in policy (obviously) but also in political leadership. That applies to the private office as much as to the politician.

A very sharp observation. Plus, I assume she wasn't part of the inner circle for either election 2015 or the EU Referendum?

TudorRose said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?

Very low, even allowing for the fact that in the Tory Party, you don't 'challenge' for the leadership. It's not 1990.

The problem that May has is that she's not really suited to electioneering. That skillset, however, is very different from the one needed to run a government or lead negotiations.

She also really REALLY needs to widen her circle of advisors. She HAS to learn from this disaster. Get out of the bunker, put Timothy and Hill back in their box, get some smart people who will answer back or correct her.

This debacle all comes from her reliance on a tiny group of wonks that have been with her for yonks. Not healthy.

True. And worse, her advisors don't have the broad policy or political background that a LotO would take into No 10. The demands of the Home Office are much more limited, not only in policy (obviously) but also in political leadership. That applies to the private office as much as to the politician.

It's time for the PB Tories to take over! DH can be PM, RobD can have 'spreadsheet Phil's' job and SeanT gets to do foreign affairs! TSE can be Lynton if he wants....

Someone a few days called me 'A pound shop Lynton Crosby'

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

dyedwoolie said:

I'm not even sure this u turn solves the issue. People aren't concerned about a cap, they are pissed at the prospect of having to pay at all. Whatever the realities of the situation, they are trying to sell a cup of sick. Should have avoided.

Exactly. A lot of the problem wasn't the plan, it was highlighting (and therefore taking ownership of) the existing set up.

Hmm. Remember: most people only listen to the soundbites and the headlines. They don't do political detail.

What's the big story of today? - TORY U-TURN. That precise phrase is trending number one on Twitter. So everyone will now think "Oh that horrible Tory policy has been ditched", and their anger will abate. TORY U-TURN is the meme that the Tories want out there, and they want it constantly repeated, and Labour are doing that job for them.

It won't be nice for Tory egos, but TORY U-TURN will drain the poison of DEMENTIA TAX - another simple, slightly deceitful and very powerful meme.

HMS TMay has taken some incoming, she's not holed below the waterline, yet.

I agree. This is a bad day at the office for May, but will be forgotten by end of the week as we move onto other matters.

I think some will be blowing raspberries and taking the piss for a bit longer than that.

On the bright side, the stories highlighting the risk of losing 6 seats might lead to a Corbyn Govt now don't look quite as far fetched....

cunning I call it...

and hopefully finally something will be done on social care funding post election.

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

dyedwoolie said:

I'm not even sure this u turn solves the issue. People aren't concerned about a cap, they are pissed at the prospect of having to pay at all. Whatever the realities of the situation, they are trying to sell a cup of sick. Should have avoided.

Exactly. A lot of the problem wasn't the plan, it was highlighting (and therefore taking ownership of) the existing set up.

Hmm. Remember: most people only listen to the soundbites and the headlines. They don't do political detail.

What's the big story of today? - TORY U-TURN. That precise phrase is trending number one on Twitter. So everyone will now think "Oh that horrible Tory policy has been ditched", and their anger will abate. TORY U-TURN is the meme that the Tories want out there, and they want it constantly repeated, and Labour are doing that job for them.

It won't be nice for Tory egos, but TORY U-TURN will drain the poison of DEMENTIA TAX - another simple, slightly deceitful and very powerful meme.

HMS TMay has taken some incoming, she's not holed below the waterline, yet.

He who fights and runs away
Lives to fight another day.

I think I am glad she has done it, but this is no one's finest hour.

Sure. It's a botch job, a stupid, avoidable mess, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.

I've come to my senses and realised that No, I couldn't ever vote for him. No matter how shit the Tories might be. And there IS a real risk, if the trend continues, that he could be leader of the largest party, and thus PM, in Coalition with Sturgeon. The worst of all worlds.

We have to hold our noses and give TMay the job.

Lab - most seats has dropped to 15.5 on BF.

No chance TMICIPM (Increased Majority) Nailed On.

From my point of view betting wise anything under 399.5 seats will pay for 6 months social care under current rules or 2.5 weeks under Tory proposals

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

dyedwoolie said:

I'm not even sure this u turn solves the issue. People aren't concerned about a cap, they are pissed at the prospect of having to pay at all. Whatever the realities of the situation, they are trying to sell a cup of sick. Should have avoided.

Exactly. A lot of the problem wasn't the plan, it was highlighting (and therefore taking ownership of) the existing set up.

Hmm. Remember: most people only listen to the soundbites and the headlines. They don't do political detail.

What's the big story of today? - TORY U-TURN. That precise phrase is trending number one on Twitter. So everyone will now think "Oh that horrible Tory policy has been ditched", and their anger will abate. TORY U-TURN is the meme that the Tories want out there, and they want it constantly repeated, and Labour are doing that job for them.

It won't be nice for Tory egos, but TORY U-TURN will drain the poison of DEMENTIA TAX - another simple, slightly deceitful and very powerful meme.

HMS TMay has taken some incoming, she's not holed below the waterline, yet.

U-TURN can be good, as you say. "PARTIAL AND UNCLEAR U-TURN WHICH THEY SAY ISN'T A U-TURN", not so much.

All people will hear is the words "TORY U-TURN". Which is all they want to hear, as they REALLY don't want to vote for Jeremy. They want an excuse to forgive their bumbling prime minister, and trust her again, as the alternative is too scary and bearded.

When was the last time a party with a leader who was perceived to be bumbling got re-elected?

And if people engage their intellects, which many won't, they'll realise that any more U-turns that would be welcome from the Tories will be much harder to extract if they win the election.

rottenborough said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

rottenborough said:

bigjohnowls said:

Ministers now saying they were only talking about Dilnot's cap when they rejected it

So the cap is greater than £78k then.

Of course. The question is how much bigger.

and is the same definition applying re hotel costs not counting towards the cap or not....

Indeed. One of the problems they have now, is that people have rapidly been bought up to speed on the issue that very few voters had thought about before.

In my own case, I am seeing my solicitor later in the week!

Yes. This is the killer fact. Few knew of this issue outside of Westminster and the wonks and fewer still were going to worry about it before June 8th. As soon as it became general knowledge that your house was up for grabs no amount of logic was going to sway folk. Flight or fight. The policy was not bonkers per se at all but as soon as you point out people's houses are in play (even if the detail says that's exactly what you are avoiding happening), it's pure raw emotional response.

bigjohnowls said:

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

dyedwoolie said:

I'm not even sure this u turn solves the issue. People aren't concerned about a cap, they are pissed at the prospect of having to pay at all. Whatever the realities of the situation, they are trying to sell a cup of sick. Should have avoided.

Exactly. A lot of the problem wasn't the plan, it was highlighting (and therefore taking ownership of) the existing set up.

Hmm. Remember: most people only listen to the soundbites and the headlines. They don't do political detail.

What's the big story of today? - TORY U-TURN. That precise phrase is trending number one on Twitter. So everyone will now think "Oh that horrible Tory policy has been ditched", and their anger will abate. TORY U-TURN is the meme that the Tories want out there, and they want it constantly repeated, and Labour are doing that job for them.

It won't be nice for Tory egos, but TORY U-TURN will drain the poison of DEMENTIA TAX - another simple, slightly deceitful and very powerful meme.

HMS TMay has taken some incoming, she's not holed below the waterline, yet.

He who fights and runs away
Lives to fight another day.

I think I am glad she has done it, but this is no one's finest hour.

Sure. It's a botch job, a stupid, avoidable mess, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.

I've come to my senses and realised that No, I couldn't ever vote for him. No matter how shit the Tories might be. And there IS a real risk, if the trend continues, that he could be leader of the largest party, and thus PM, in Coalition with Sturgeon. The worst of all worlds.

We have to hold our noses and give TMay the job.

Lab - most seats has dropped to 15.5 on BF.

No chance TMICIPM (Increased Majority) Nailed On.

From my point of view betting wise anything under 399.5 seats will pay for 6 months social care under current rules or 2.5 weeks under Tory proposals

This guy is good!

SeanT said:

MarqueeMark said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?

Very low, even allowing for the fact that in the Tory Party, you don't 'challenge' for the leadership. It's not 1990.

The problem that May has is that she's not really suited to electioneering. That skillset, however, is very different from the one needed to run a government or lead negotiations.

She also really REALLY needs to widen her circle of advisors. She HAS to learn from this disaster. Get out of the bunker, put Timothy and Hill back in their box, get some smart people who will answer back or correct her.

This debacle all comes from her reliance on a tiny group of wonks that have been with her for yonks. Not healthy.

True. And worse, her advisors don't have the broad policy or political background that a LotO would take into No 10. The demands of the Home Office are much more limited, not only in policy (obviously) but also in political leadership. That applies to the private office as much as to the politician.

A very sharp observation. Plus, I assume she wasn't part of the inner circle for either election 2015 or the EU Referendum?

Dominic Cummings should be at the heart of the Tory election machine. His Leave campaign was genius.

Labour Leave should be at the heart of the Tory election machine - they were much better than this!

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/ChurchofSatan/status/866453928535236608

Did they ask Donald if he was up for fondling some globes ?

The public must surely start becoming deeply suspicious of Corbyn's brazen attampts at bribery today, writing off billions of pounds of debts and promising policies, on student loans/maintenance fees, costing an eye watering 11 billion quid. He is chucking around money that he does not have and will never have, because it will go straight onto the tab.

On top of all the other fantastic promises, why oh why oh why hasn't their manifesto been dismantled piece by piece? I believe it has not come under anything like the scrutiny it would have if people genuinely believed they could be the next government. This has to change, because even if there is a million to one chance of Corbyn becoming PM, the consequences must be explained in great detail.

By the way, I thought May actually did pretty well in that speech. She had to do something, I suppose, and I guess even a U turn, embarrassing as it is, will be worth the short term damage in the end.

This last few days has rocked the Tories to the core, there's no point denying that now, but Corbyn & co offer them all the ammunition they could ever wish for in an opposition party, and they have to - must do - and I believe will do - expalin to the public what the catastrophc consequences of a Corbyn government would do to this country.

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

dyedwoolie said:

I'm not even sure this u turn solves the issue. People aren't concerned about a cap, they are pissed at the prospect of having to pay at all. Whatever the realities of the situation, they are trying to sell a cup of sick. Should have avoided.

Exactly. A lot of the problem wasn't the plan, it was highlighting (and therefore taking ownership of) the existing set up.

Hmm. Remember: most people only listen to the soundbites and the headlines. They don't do political detail.

What's the big story of today? - TORY U-TURN. That precise phrase is trending number one on Twitter. So everyone will now think "Oh that horrible Tory policy has been ditched", and their anger will abate. TORY U-TURN is the meme that the Tories want out there, and they want it constantly repeated, and Labour are doing that job for them.

It won't be nice for Tory egos, but TORY U-TURN will drain the poison of DEMENTIA TAX - another simple, slightly deceitful and very powerful meme.

HMS TMay has taken some incoming, she's not holed below the waterline, yet.

He who fights and runs away
Lives to fight another day.

I think I am glad she has done it, but this is no one's finest hour.

Sure. It's a botch job, a stupid, avoidable mess, but the alternative is Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn.

I've come to my senses and realised that No, I couldn't ever vote for him. No matter how shit the Tories might be. And there IS a real risk, if the trend continues, that he could be leader of the largest party, and thus PM, in Coalition with Sturgeon. The worst of all worlds.

We have to hold our noses and give TMay the job.

No we don't , you vote for a donkey wearing a blue rosette if you want and get a government of asses Many think the country deserves better

I thought the Bow Group were a Right Wing Think Tank

https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/866213350799179777

welshowl said:

rottenborough said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

rottenborough said:

bigjohnowls said:

Ministers now saying they were only talking about Dilnot's cap when they rejected it

So the cap is greater than £78k then.

Of course. The question is how much bigger.

and is the same definition applying re hotel costs not counting towards the cap or not....

Indeed. One of the problems they have now, is that people have rapidly been bought up to speed on the issue that very few voters had thought about before.

In my own case, I am seeing my solicitor later in the week!

Yes. This is the killer fact. Few knew of this issue outside of Westminster and the wonks and fewer still were going to worry about it before June 8th. As soon as it became general knowledge that your house was up for grabs no amount of logic was going to sway folk. Flight or fight. The policy was not bonkers per se at all but as soon as you point out people's houses are in play (even if the detail says that's exactly what you are avoiding happening), it's pure raw emotional response.

I certainly had no idea there was such a lottery in local councils and whether they snatched your home immediately, or deferred the snatch until you die.

Richard_Nabavi said:

TudorRose said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?

Very low, even allowing for the fact that in the Tory Party, you don't 'challenge' for the leadership. It's not 1990.

The problem that May has is that she's not really suited to electioneering. That skillset, however, is very different from the one needed to run a government or lead negotiations.

She also really REALLY needs to widen her circle of advisors. She HAS to learn from this disaster. Get out of the bunker, put Timothy and Hill back in their box, get some smart people who will answer back or correct her.

This debacle all comes from her reliance on a tiny group of wonks that have been with her for yonks. Not healthy.

True. And worse, her advisors don't have the broad policy or political background that a LotO would take into No 10. The demands of the Home Office are much more limited, not only in policy (obviously) but also in political leadership. That applies to the private office as much as to the politician.

It's time for the PB Tories to take over! DH can be PM, RobD can have 'spreadsheet Phil's' job and SeanT gets to do foreign affairs! TSE can be Lynton if he wants....

SeanT Minister for Women & Equalities, surely?

He can combine it with his foreign affairs...