So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?
Very low, even allowing for the fact that in the Tory Party, you don't 'challenge' for the leadership. It's not 1990.
The problem that May has is that she's not really suited to electioneering. That skillset, however, is very different from the one needed to run a government or lead negotiations.
She also really REALLY needs to widen her circle of advisors. She HAS to learn from this disaster. Get out of the bunker, put Timothy and Hill back in their box, get some smart people who will answer back or correct her.
This debacle all comes from her reliance on a tiny group of wonks that have been with her for yonks. Not healthy.
True. And worse, her advisors don't have the broad policy or political background that a LotO would take into No 10. The demands of the Home Office are much more limited, not only in policy (obviously) but also in political leadership. That applies to the private office as much as to the politician.
It's time for the PB Tories to take over! DH can be PM, RobD can have 'spreadsheet Phil's' job and SeanT gets to do foreign affairs! TSE can be Lynton if he wants....
So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?
Very low, even allowing for the fact that in the Tory Party, you don't 'challenge' for the leadership. It's not 1990.
The problem that May has is that she's not really suited to electioneering. That skillset, however, is very different from the one needed to run a government or lead negotiations.
She also really REALLY needs to widen her circle of advisors. She HAS to learn from this disaster. Get out of the bunker, put Timothy and Hill back in their box, get some smart people who will answer back or correct her.
This debacle all comes from her reliance on a tiny group of wonks that have been with her for yonks. Not healthy.
True. And worse, her advisors don't have the broad policy or political background that a LotO would take into No 10. The demands of the Home Office are much more limited, not only in policy (obviously) but also in political leadership. That applies to the private office as much as to the politician.
It's time for the PB Tories to take over! DH can be PM, RobD can have 'spreadsheet Phil's' job and SeanT gets to do foreign affairs! TSE can be Lynton if he wants....
@bigjohnowls Theresa May isn't nailed on if you're finding door after door of Con -> Lab switchers though (In Dronfield say). Are you ?
No Derby North is where I have done most canvassing CW has gone from no hope to could be close. Must have had around 100 direct Tory 15 to Labour 17 promises due to the Dementia Tax
Done some in New Whittington that saw quite a bit of switching too but more from LD.
All I have done in Dronfield is some NHS stalls and Engels stance on fracking still means she is toast IMO
I know you don't agree with the policy and I respect that, but it may help if you understand what £72k cap means and what the current situation regarding 'house seizure' is. People are already having to sell their homes to fund care while they are still alive and if your assets amount to a little over £23k you will be expected to fund your own care. When my father was in care you would still have to contribute on a sliding scale if you had assets left between about £14.5k and £23k. Since he died I believe this lower limit has been raised to around £16k. Even if you are fully funded by your local authority most of your pension income (state and private) will be taken to pay for personal care. You will be left with sufficient to pay for existing commitments such as life assurance policies and funeral plans plus an amount to pay for sundries such as toiletries, hairdressing and chiropody.
I know from being a regular reader of PB that your own circumstances are difficult and that you stand to be affected by the change to home-based care that will assess your home as an asset and that this must be alarming.
I am not a party-political person and find things about all parties which are deeply off-putting. If I had to describe myself as anything it would be what my Marxist school-friend described me as 40 years ago: a Grimondite Liberal. I'm afraid it was the LibDems uncritical devotion to th EU that stopped me voting for them.
I think Norman Lamb is a good chap who has given careful thought to social care and mental health. I hope he keeps his seat.
'If he had said he was against Trident, you would have lapped it up. Now he has said unequivocally he supports Trident, you dismiss that. Basically, you are an alt-Right headbanger.'
You are out of order and need to retract that last accusation . Insulting someone when you are losing is the sign of weakness.
Use a better argument rather than insult a huge part of the British public who support the nuclear defence of our Country,
But so many of the people who say that seek to deny other countries the right to do the same.
Absolutely! Because its not in the interest of our Country to allow those other countries the right to do the same.
You do understand those people are interested what is best for our Country don't you? Or is that an alien concept?
You appear not to see the moral hypocrisy in seeking to deny to the citizens of other countries the same security that we demand for ourselves!
Comments
https://twitter.com/montie/status/866632596612100097
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/866631728105914375
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/866633265351970816
Done some in New Whittington that saw quite a bit of switching too but more from LD.
All I have done in Dronfield is some NHS stalls and Engels stance on fracking still means she is toast IMO
I know you don't agree with the policy and I respect that, but it may help if you understand what £72k cap means and what the current situation regarding 'house seizure' is. People are already having to sell their homes to fund care while they are still alive and if your assets amount to a little over £23k you will be expected to fund your own care. When my father was in care you would still have to contribute on a sliding scale if you had assets left between about £14.5k and £23k. Since he died I believe this lower limit has been raised to around £16k. Even if you are fully funded by your local authority most of your pension income (state and private) will be taken to pay for personal care. You will be left with sufficient to pay for existing commitments such as life assurance policies and funeral plans plus an amount to pay for sundries such as toiletries, hairdressing and chiropody.
https://www.saga.co.uk/money/care-funding-advice/what-you-need-to-know-about-care-home-fees
https://www.royallondon.com/about/media/news/2017/march/half-the-value-of-your-home-at-risk-from-average-care-home-stay/
I know from being a regular reader of PB that your own circumstances are difficult and that you stand to be affected by the change to home-based care that will assess your home as an asset and that this must be alarming.
I am not a party-political person and find things about all parties which are deeply off-putting. If I had to describe myself as anything it would be what my Marxist school-friend described me as 40 years ago: a Grimondite Liberal. I'm afraid it was the LibDems uncritical devotion to th EU that stopped me voting for them.
I think Norman Lamb is a good chap who has given careful thought to social care and mental health. I hope he keeps his seat.