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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    isam said:

    Maybe the country needs a leaver in charge, someone who the majority agree with from the start

    Makes sense in theory until you look at the potential candidates.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,823
    I thought that we were supposed to need a Corbyn-led Coalition in order to get Chaos?
    Huh.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017

    All the tories had to put in the manifesto was brexit, bins and immigration target...That is all they had to do....

    How much mileage have they got with the message they've chosen? People's perception of "Look at us: we're strong and stable" could suddenly flip. They could appear superficial, self-regarding, arrogant, with a dollop of craziness, and with an opinion of themselves that simply isn't shared by the country. They do seem to be stuck in the past. That's not a good look.

    There is the argument that opinions don't change much in the last two weeks. But if there is an exception to that rule, it could be when a sitting government's self-description as ever so STRONG and STABLE suddenly looks hollow.

    Pushing xenophobia may be all they've got. I am not sure Brexit will help them much. If they lose enough votes from the 48%, they are f***ed.

    People may start to realise that the main reason they called the election wasn't to avoid difficulties during Brexit negotiations, but to avoid getting defeated in a Labour landslide after a post-Brexit horrendous fall in living standards.
    And don't forget "The Sun says [the Labour leader] is a traitor". Could this be the first election since 1974 when British people say no to that vile rag?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    I haven't watched it but if she did this, Theresa May truly is crap

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/866619307010252800
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    75% of OAPs own homes of average value £240k. 70% of us will need care. Therefore, 52% face losing their homes under Tory Dementia Tax plan.

    Brilliant Labour arithmetic, ignoring both the figures (70% of us will need how much care?), and the policy (no-one loses their home under the Tory social care plan).

    Do you actually believe all the rubbish you post on this, or are you trolling?
    Guess!!

    Your glorious leader is both weak and wobbly and a House Snatcher.

    Get over it.

    How much has this policy come up in your canvassing.

    Number one issue by a mile in mine.

    Off out doing some more this tea time will see if people still think its still important.
    My guess is that you don't believe all the rubbish you post on this. But then, I always try to give people the benefit of the doubt.
    Do you believe Mays strong and stable mantra has just been utterly destroyed?


    Strong and unstable?

    Weak but stable?

    Weak and unstable?



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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,327
    edited May 2017

    Not only is TM badly damaged by this but her inner circle with Timothy at its core is too. What credibility will he now carry with the parliamentry party? Dementia tax man.
    Shambolic

    Her strident comments about Juncker interfering in the election were arguably aimed at getting Martin Selmayr sacked, so it will be unfortunate if she starts the negotiations without her right-hand man instead.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    Yvette Cooper‏Verified account @YvetteCooperMP 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    So it's an optional cap at unspecified level to be included in a future consultation? Can't even do a competent u-turn. Still a #dementiatax
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Social care wrecked the landslide, the u turn might wreck the majority. Awful awful stuff from the blues. It's simply not possible to drive voters into Corbyn's arms, until you do it.
    She's weak and frit.

    This is crazy talk. Average 12 point poll lead = landslide. That might be cut but how is Corbyn going to get 40% and take away her majority?
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Sean

    Sophie Walker.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Can anyone remind me why Mrs May called this early election ?

    She changed her mind, Mr Eagles, as she always does.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307
    edited May 2017
    Cyan said:

    All the tories had to put in the manifesto was brexit, bins and immigration target...That is all they had to do....

    How much mileage have they got with the message they've chosen? People's perception of "Look at us: we're strong and stable" could suddenly flip. They could appear superficial, self-regarding, arrogant, with a dollop of craziness, and with an opinion of themselves that simply isn't shared by the country. They do seem to be stuck in the past, and that's not a good look.

    There is the argument that opinions don't change much in the last two weeks. But if there is an exception to that rule, it could be when a sitting government's self-description as ever so STRONG and STABLE suddenly looks hollow.

    Pushing xenophobia may be all they've got. I am not sure Brexit will help them much. If they lose enough votes from the 48%, they are f***ed.
    And don't forget "The Sun says [the Labour leader] is a traitor". Could this be the first election since 1974 when British people say no to that vile rag?
    No, the u turn is embarrassing in the short term but in the long term puts the 100 seat majority back in play
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Brom said:

    Social care wrecked the landslide, the u turn might wreck the majority. Awful awful stuff from the blues. It's simply not possible to drive voters into Corbyn's arms, until you do it.
    She's weak and frit.

    This is crazy talk. Average 12 point poll lead = landslide. That might be cut but how is Corbyn going to get 40% and take away her majority?
    Because her whole usp has just exploded in her face, and she pulled the pin.
    The seat markets will move hard this week.
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    PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    mwadams said:

    OT: The YouGov survey I did this morning contained two questions about the affordability of the Con and Lab manifestos - I've not been asked that before. I was also asked whether I liked to have a gherkin in my burger. #random

    Next Chancellor John McDonald's?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    HYUFD said:

    Cyan said:

    All the tories had to put in the manifesto was brexit, bins and immigration target...That is all they had to do....

    How much mileage have they got with the message they've chosen? People's perception of "Look at us: we're strong and stable" could suddenly flip. They could appear superficial, self-regarding, arrogant, with a dollop of craziness, and with an opinion of themselves that simply isn't shared by the country. They do seem to be stuck in the past, and that's not a good look.

    There is the argument that opinions don't change much in the last two weeks. But if there is an exception to that rule, it could be when a sitting government's self-description as ever so STRONG and STABLE suddenly looks hollow.

    Pushing xenophobia may be all they've got. I am not sure Brexit will help them much. If they lose enough votes from the 48%, they are f***ed.

    twitter.com/RossFootball/status/866614939036864513

    And don't forget "The Sun says [the Labour leader] is a traitor". Could this be the first election since 1974 when British people say no to that vile rag?
    No, the u turn is embarrassing in the short term but in the long term puts the 100 seat majority back in play
    Thank buggery we are still 16 days out.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I certainly didn't expect PB Tories to be spitting their dummies out during this campaign.

    Poor old Theresa what a shame
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Social care wrecked the landslide, the u turn might wreck the majority. Awful awful stuff from the blues. It's simply not possible to drive voters into Corbyn's arms, until you do it.
    She's weak and frit.

    This is crazy talk. Average 12 point poll lead = landslide. That might be cut but how is Corbyn going to get 40% and take away her majority?
    Because her whole usp has just exploded in her face, and she pulled the pin.
    The seat markets will move hard this week.
    Yeah course they will. Tories in their droves are currently running to vote Labour. lol
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    SCON's attempt to distract by nurse story from last night's debate is now unraveling:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/foodbank-nurse-who-put-nicola-10473725
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,823
    The danger here is if this impacts May's leadership ratings and leader satisfaction levels. That's one of the underlying drivers of what actually ends up happening on polling day.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307

    Social care wrecked the landslide, the u turn might wreck the majority. Awful awful stuff from the blues. It's simply not possible to drive voters into Corbyn's arms, until you do it.
    She's weak and frit.

    No, the u turn puts the landslide back in play, even though it will now be more 100 at best rather than 150+
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    I've decided to spoil my ballot paper by writing 'Bring back Dave and George'

    Just not sure which constituency to do it in.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @patrickwintour: Mail will be annoyed. It loyally backed Dementia Tax, even though ran counter to entire ideology. Now May retreats and Mail looks foolish.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    75% of OAPs own homes of average value £240k. 70% of us will need care. Therefore, 52% face losing their homes under Tory Dementia Tax plan.

    Brilliant Labour arithmetic, ignoring both the figures (70% of us will need how much care?), and the policy (no-one loses their home under the Tory social care plan).

    Do you actually believe all the rubbish you post on this, or are you trolling?
    Guess!!

    Your glorious leader is both weak and wobbly and a House Snatcher.

    Get over it.

    How much has this policy come up in your canvassing.

    Number one issue by a mile in mine.

    Off out doing some more this tea time will see if people still think its still important.
    My guess is that you don't believe all the rubbish you post on this. But then, I always try to give people the benefit of the doubt.
    Do you believe Mays strong and stable mantra has just been utterly destroyed?
    Yes, of course.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Social care wrecked the landslide, the u turn might wreck the majority. Awful awful stuff from the blues. It's simply not possible to drive voters into Corbyn's arms, until you do it.
    She's weak and frit.

    This is crazy talk. Average 12 point poll lead = landslide. That might be cut but how is Corbyn going to get 40% and take away her majority?
    Because her whole usp has just exploded in her face, and she pulled the pin.
    The seat markets will move hard this week.
    Yeah course they will. Tories in their droves are currently running to vote Labour. lol
    That's the story of the last week certainly. Look at Labour's vote intention
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Scott_P said:

    Commission negotiating documents which are shared with EU Member States, the European Council, the European Parliament, the Council, national parliaments, and the United Kingdom will be released to the public

    PMSL
    And then there is this.... "A French lawyer ... Julien Fouchet ... [a] European law specialist from Bordeaux wants to challenge the validity of the EU negotiations on the basis the procedure was flawed ...
    It will call for the cancellation of the Brexit negotiating directives drafted by the EU, which are due to be adopted on 22 May, on the basis the referendum breached the rights of the UK citizens who were denied the vote. "


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-talks-illegal-uk-expats-british-abroad-not-vote-french-lawyer-julien-fouchet-european-a7745216.html
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    Scott_P said:

    Commission negotiating documents which are shared with EU Member States, the European Council, the European Parliament, the Council, national parliaments, and the United Kingdom will be released to the public

    PMSL
    And then there is this.... "A French lawyer ... Julien Fouchet ... [a] European law specialist from Bordeaux wants to challenge the validity of the EU negotiations on the basis the procedure was flawed ...
    It will call for the cancellation of the Brexit negotiating directives drafted by the EU, which are due to be adopted on 22 May, on the basis the referendum breached the rights of the UK citizens who were denied the vote. "


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-talks-illegal-uk-expats-british-abroad-not-vote-french-lawyer-julien-fouchet-european-a7745216.html
    Meaningless, since the referendum was advisory only.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BNP on the "Daily Politics" ....

    Second Car Crash TV Today .....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307
    murali_s said:

    Sadly so true TSE. What is David Cameron doing now? The country needs him now...
    If Cameron came back he would lose all the Kippers May has won without winning any from Corbyn, he was right for pre Brexit not post Brexit
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Maybe the country needs a leaver in charge, someone who the majority agree with from the start

    Makes sense in theory until you look at the potential candidates.
    Farage as Tory leader would win a landslide!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,327

    Scott_P said:

    Commission negotiating documents which are shared with EU Member States, the European Council, the European Parliament, the Council, national parliaments, and the United Kingdom will be released to the public

    PMSL
    And then there is this.... "A French lawyer ... Julien Fouchet ... [a] European law specialist from Bordeaux wants to challenge the validity of the EU negotiations on the basis the procedure was flawed ...
    It will call for the cancellation of the Brexit negotiating directives drafted by the EU, which are due to be adopted on 22 May, on the basis the referendum breached the rights of the UK citizens who were denied the vote. "
    It's irrelevant. The referendum was the political reason why we invoked Article 50, not the constitutional reason.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    We do really need to know the clarification for the means test limit for the freeze the elderly WFA cut . Will it hurt just millionaire pensioners , wealthy pensioners or include many who struggle to just get by .
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Scott_P said:
    Can't imagine who taught Osborne this magnificent level of trolling.
    He is having a lovely time, not had such fun since the Buller piss-up after the House bumped Oriel at Torpids*. But he has this morning ruled himself out of any chance of a return to the party, I think. Not helpful.

    * Graduates of also-ran "universities" will not understand this.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,927
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: So..4 days after Tory manifesto announced scrapping planned social care cap - it is now an option for consultation

    With Brexit and all it entails we need a PM that is prepared to take tough decisions not one who panics royally and changes her mind at the first sign of a negative reaction.

    No doubt the PB Tories will find their justifications but really does it bode well for the country? I think we are in for a few years of timid, dithery leadership - which of course what many May observers predicted at the time she became leader.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    I think this is taking Tories4Corbyn a bit far.....

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/866621839774285824
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Acc to Britain Elects there is a welsh poll due.. any news?
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    Scott_P said:
    That's the problem with caps, they benefit the wealthy, but that doesn't meant that the public prefer a fairer system. Consumer behaviour is ruled by this sort of inefficient risk avoidance, people are willing to pay quite a premium to avoid low probability risks whilst simultaneously ignoring more pressing needs. If consumers behaved rationally businesses would be a lot less profitable.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934

    mwadams said:

    OT: The YouGov survey I did this morning contained two questions about the affordability of the Con and Lab manifestos - I've not been asked that before. I was also asked whether I liked to have a gherkin in my burger. #random

    Next Chancellor John McDonald's?
    More chance of Ronald

    TMICIPM (increased majority)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    My colleague is still voting for 'her' - one of the "extra" brexit ref voters as against GE2015.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307

    Brom said:

    Brom said:

    Social care wrecked the landslide, the u turn might wreck the majority. Awful awful stuff from the blues. It's simply not possible to drive voters into Corbyn's arms, until you do it.
    She's weak and frit.

    This is crazy talk. Average 12 point poll lead = landslide. That might be cut but how is Corbyn going to get 40% and take away her majority?
    Because her whole usp has just exploded in her face, and she pulled the pin.
    The seat markets will move hard this week.
    Yeah course they will. Tories in their droves are currently running to vote Labour. lol
    That's the story of the last week certainly. Look at Labour's vote intention
    The main movement is 2015 LD to Labour actually, the Tories are still net gainers from Labour since 2015 but over the weekend saw a slight net loss to the LDs, over 60% of 2015 UKIP still voting 2017 Tory
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,799
    Ishmael_Z said:

    bobajobPB said:

    And I think the Neil interview tonight could actually be more brutal than it might have been half an hour ago.

    In more reflective terms I remember us pb Tories getting all terribly excited on Bigotgate Day but it didn't result in a wipeout for Brown; it hardly had any traction at all with the voting public. This might blow over too.

    Mrs Duffy was in fact a bigot so Gordo was only telling the truth.
    Something we agree on!
    Transcript:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/28/gordon-brown-gillian-duffy-transcript

    Could you highlight the exact words that show her to be a bigot? Bearing in mind Brown himself withdrew the allegation.
    "Where are they all flocking from?"
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @patrickwintour: Mail will be annoyed. It loyally backed Dementia Tax, even though ran counter to entire ideology. Now May retreats and Mail looks foolish.

    Actually, they'll probably claim the U-turn was their idea.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Yvette Cooper‏Verified account @YvetteCooperMP 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    So it's an optional cap at unspecified level to be included in a future consultation? Can't even do a competent u-turn. Still a #dementiatax

    It still has more detail than Labour's position on care costs....
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    mwadams said:

    OT: The YouGov survey I did this morning contained two questions about the affordability of the Con and Lab manifestos - I've not been asked that before. I was also asked whether I liked to have a gherkin in my burger. #random

    Next Chancellor John McDonald's?
    More chance of Ronald

    TMICIPM (increased majority)
    TMIGBM2

    Gordon Brown Mark 2
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    matt said:

    Aren't you planning to move to Ireland? I'd have a look at the politicians there if I were you.

    I never said I was moving Ireland, just that I was sorting out my citizenship and getting my passport sorted. The whole EU is my oyster.

    The assumption in this parish is that because I was sorting out Irish citizenship then I was going there. Whoops!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307
    Scott_P said:

    So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?

    Next to zero, the 100 seat majority is back in play
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739

    Yvette Cooper‏Verified account @YvetteCooperMP 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    So it's an optional cap at unspecified level to be included in a future consultation? Can't even do a competent u-turn. Still a #dementiatax

    It still has more detail than Labour's position on care costs....
    Yes, but unfortunately that is the best spin that can be put on it.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    bobajobPB said:

    And I think the Neil interview tonight could actually be more brutal than it might have been half an hour ago.

    In more reflective terms I remember us pb Tories getting all terribly excited on Bigotgate Day but it didn't result in a wipeout for Brown; it hardly had any traction at all with the voting public. This might blow over too.

    Mrs Duffy was in fact a bigot so Gordo was only telling the truth.
    Something we agree on!
    Transcript:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/28/gordon-brown-gillian-duffy-transcript

    Could you highlight the exact words that show her to be a bigot? Bearing in mind Brown himself withdrew the allegation.
    "Where are they all flocking from?"
    Nope.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,327
    Scott_P said:

    So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?

    If it follows the pattern of most EU negotiations May will be toppled after being seen to be too soft on Brussels, and a new hard-line leader will then sign up to even more punitive terms.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    Acc to Britain Elects there is a welsh poll due.. any news?

    due at 4pm Prof Roger Scully has alrady seen the reults and has tweeted you could say blimey to the results
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    Do you believe Mays strong and stable mantra has just been utterly destroyed?

    Yes, of course.
    If it has been utterly destroyed, the Tories are out. If anything a major party says can start to look paper-thin quickly, it's a promise from a sitting government that things are going to be OK when living conditions and expectations have fallen for years.

    And I thought this election would be boring...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Quite high.

    HYUFD said:

    Next to zero

    One of you is right :smiley:
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?

    Quite high.

    However if she manages to stop the bleeding of voters to Labour, with her U-turn, she should still get a decent majority, around 50-80, enough to have made the election worthwhile (just about), and she will survive.
    I agree with that. But remember some of the bleeding started before the manifesto launch.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307

    We do really need to know the clarification for the means test limit for the freeze the elderly WFA cut . Will it hurt just millionaire pensioners , wealthy pensioners or include many who struggle to just get by .

    Polling wise the Tories don't, voters in weekend polls backed the WFA means test just opposed the social care changes as they were
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    calum said:

    SCON's attempt to distract by nurse story from last night's debate is now unraveling:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/foodbank-nurse-who-put-nicola-10473725

    Cybernats have got previous on this:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/cybernats-target-foodbank-manager-for-shaming-snp-1-3828763
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    Can anyone remind me why Mrs May called this early election ?

    To get Osborne off the back benches?

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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Commission negotiating documents which are shared with EU Member States, the European Council, the European Parliament, the Council, national parliaments, and the United Kingdom will be released to the public

    PMSL
    And then there is this.... "A French lawyer ... Julien Fouchet ... [a] European law specialist from Bordeaux wants to challenge the validity of the EU negotiations on the basis the procedure was flawed ...
    It will call for the cancellation of the Brexit negotiating directives drafted by the EU, which are due to be adopted on 22 May, on the basis the referendum breached the rights of the UK citizens who were denied the vote. "


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-talks-illegal-uk-expats-british-abroad-not-vote-french-lawyer-julien-fouchet-european-a7745216.html
    Meaningless, since the referendum was advisory only.
    It would be irrelevant even if the vote had been legally binding. Parliament has the constitutional right to determine who has the vote and who does not.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    Scott_P said:

    @patrickwintour: Mail will be annoyed. It loyally backed Dementia Tax, even though ran counter to entire ideology. Now May retreats and Mail looks foolish.

    Actually, they'll probably claim the U-turn was their idea.
    That's what the Mail does. "A Leader that listens. Mail campaign wins clarification."
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934

    Yvette Cooper‏Verified account @YvetteCooperMP 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    So it's an optional cap at unspecified level to be included in a future consultation? Can't even do a competent u-turn. Still a #dementiatax

    It still has more detail than Labour's position on care costs....
    Thats true. As long as that continues for next 17 days job done.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Scott_P said:

    Commission negotiating documents which are shared with EU Member States, the European Council, the European Parliament, the Council, national parliaments, and the United Kingdom will be released to the public

    PMSL
    And then there is this.... "A French lawyer ... Julien Fouchet ... [a] European law specialist from Bordeaux wants to challenge the validity of the EU negotiations on the basis the procedure was flawed ...
    It will call for the cancellation of the Brexit negotiating directives drafted by the EU, which are due to be adopted on 22 May, on the basis the referendum breached the rights of the UK citizens who were denied the vote. "
    It's irrelevant. The referendum was the political reason why we invoked Article 50, not the constitutional reason.
    It may not be irrelevant if the EU Commission is unable to negotiate with the UK. I do not see it as a Brexit-reversal mechanism, more like a spanner-in-the-works sort of thing.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Maybe the country needs a leaver in charge, someone who the majority agree with from the start

    Makes sense in theory until you look at the potential candidates.
    Farage as Tory leader would win a landslide!
    ... for Labour?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Cyan said:


    If it has been utterly destroyed, the Tories are out. If anything a major party says can start to look paper-thin quickly, it's a promise from a sitting government that things are going to be OK when living conditions and expectations have fallen for years.

    Not so, for the very obvious reason that Theresa May and the Tories are the only game in town. Labour aren't even pretending to be a credible alternative government.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyan said:

    All the tories had to put in the manifesto was brexit, bins and immigration target...That is all they had to do....

    How much mileage have they got with the message they've chosen? People's perception of "Look at us: we're strong and stable" could suddenly flip. They could appear superficial, self-regarding, arrogant, with a dollop of craziness, and with an opinion of themselves that simply isn't shared by the country. They do seem to be stuck in the past, and that's not a good look.

    There is the argument that opinions don't change much in the last two weeks. But if there is an exception to that rule, it could be when a sitting government's self-description as ever so STRONG and STABLE suddenly looks hollow.

    Pushing xenophobia may be all they've got. I am not sure Brexit will help them much. If they lose enough votes from the 48%, they are f***ed.

    twitter.com/RossFootball/status/866614939036864513

    And don't forget "The Sun says [the Labour leader] is a traitor". Could this be the first election since 1974 when British people say no to that vile rag?
    No, the u turn is embarrassing in the short term but in the long term puts the 100 seat majority back in play
    Thank buggery we are still 16 days out.
    Yes, better to get it done now than leave it until eve of poll especially with postals about to go out for many
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    Can anyone remind me why Mrs May called this early election ?

    To get Osborne off the back benches?

    Bet he's kicking himself right now!
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Maybe the country needs a leaver in charge, someone who the majority agree with from the start

    Makes sense in theory until you look at the potential candidates.
    Farage as Tory leader would win a landslide!
    ... for Labour?
    Whoever he was leader of
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    We do really need to know the clarification for the means test limit for the freeze the elderly WFA cut . Will it hurt just millionaire pensioners , wealthy pensioners or include many who struggle to just get by .

    No, we don't.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    970 comments about this U turn/disaster for TM the PM, but no betting advice?
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Scott_P said:

    @patrickwintour: Mail will be annoyed. It loyally backed Dementia Tax, even though ran counter to entire ideology. Now May retreats and Mail looks foolish.

    Goodness, when the Daily Mail starts getting disoriented things are coming along nicely! There were signs of this a few years ago when they kind of backed a radical fightback by students. The Tories have relied for decades on "F*** you - I'm all right, Jack". Now perhaps people are realising that the young, the elderly, the sick and the indebted are NOT all right, Jack.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Yvette Cooper‏Verified account @YvetteCooperMP 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    So it's an optional cap at unspecified level to be included in a future consultation? Can't even do a competent u-turn. Still a #dementiatax

    It still has more detail than Labour's position on care costs....
    Thats true. As long as that continues for next 17 days job done.
    Oh, I think Labour's position might just come under scrutiny next.... and their hypocrisy.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,471
    I accept the social care announcement was inept but the policy itself is not.

    The move to cap costs together with the reaffirmation of the policy is likely to limit the damage, and the prospect of Corbyn likely to see a reasonable majority.

    I think addressing the issue was brave and has put it in the public domain
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Commission negotiating documents which are shared with EU Member States, the European Council, the European Parliament, the Council, national parliaments, and the United Kingdom will be released to the public

    PMSL
    And then there is this.... "A French lawyer ... Julien Fouchet ... [a] European law specialist from Bordeaux wants to challenge the validity of the EU negotiations on the basis the procedure was flawed ...
    It will call for the cancellation of the Brexit negotiating directives drafted by the EU, which are due to be adopted on 22 May, on the basis the referendum breached the rights of the UK citizens who were denied the vote. "


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-talks-illegal-uk-expats-british-abroad-not-vote-french-lawyer-julien-fouchet-european-a7745216.html
    Meaningless, since the referendum was advisory only.
    In fact, the Supreme Court saved Theresa's bacon. She was insisting going ahead without a parliamentary vote.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    We do really need to know the clarification for the means test limit for the freeze the elderly WFA cut . Will it hurt just millionaire pensioners , wealthy pensioners or include many who struggle to just get by .

    No, we don't.
    Well many elderly pensioners need to know if they are likely to freeze next winter . You heartless Tories may not care .
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    edited May 2017
    isam said:

    970 comments about this U turn/disaster for TM the PM, but no betting advice?

    Delyn / Vale of Clwyd at mirror odds. Delwyn is around 8% margin for Labour and a target; Vale of Clwyd is Tory held.

    3 unit Vale of Clwyd Tory @ 1-4
    1 units Delwyn @ 4-1 Labour

    Maybe
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    calum said:

    SCON's attempt to distract by nurse story from last night's debate is now unraveling:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/foodbank-nurse-who-put-nicola-10473725

    Looking at the photos I am surprised the SNP backtracked so quickly on this last night - positively Mayesque lack of resolve.

    And a lesson that what happens on facebook, stays on facebook but also absolutely everywhere else.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Maybe the country needs a leaver in charge, someone who the majority agree with from the start

    Makes sense in theory until you look at the potential candidates.
    Farage as Tory leader would win a landslide!
    He wouldn't NOW, but certainly if he looked like David Cameron and spoke with the same accent he would already be prime minister.

    Yvette Cooper‏Verified account @YvetteCooperMP 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    So it's an optional cap at unspecified level to be included in a future consultation? Can't even do a competent u-turn. Still a #dementiatax

    It still has more detail than Labour's position on care costs....
    Thats true. As long as that continues for next 17 days job done.
    Oh, I think Labour's position might just come under scrutiny next.... and their hypocrisy.
    How strong and stable is it to do a U-turn during an election campaign? One Gillian Duffy moment or similar, and they're out. "But Corbyn said something about the IRA" - well who gives a toss?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934

    Yvette Cooper‏Verified account @YvetteCooperMP 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    So it's an optional cap at unspecified level to be included in a future consultation? Can't even do a competent u-turn. Still a #dementiatax

    It still has more detail than Labour's position on care costs....
    Thats true. As long as that continues for next 17 days job done.
    Oh, I think Labour's position might just come under scrutiny next.... and their hypocrisy.
    You told me this was a none issue at the Weekend so your view doesnt count
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    PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    So predictable

    2 u-turns in 2 months, I look forward to the next 2 years...
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Soon after the GE was announced, I commented on here that I was afraid that Mr Corbyn was going to end up as PM and asked if anyone could show me his route to No.10. Nobody could (or at least, nobody did).

    Actually, I'm quite sorry to see the Conservatives have taken up my challenge.

    Good afternoon, everybody.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    Scott_P said:

    So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?

    Very low, even allowing for the fact that in the Tory Party, you don't 'challenge' for the leadership. It's not 1990.

    The problem that May has is that she's not really suited to electioneering. That skillset, however, is very different from the one needed to run a government or lead negotiations.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    970 comments about this U turn/disaster for TM the PM, but no betting advice?

    Deep down the frothers know its not going to change the result much.


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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    Reading it at the moment - excellent! Though Grant is a bit old to play Thorpe (by about two decades...)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    970 comments about this U turn/disaster for TM the PM, but no betting advice?

    Look at the next PM markets. And TM exit dates :smile:
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Commission negotiating documents which are shared with EU Member States, the European Council, the European Parliament, the Council, national parliaments, and the United Kingdom will be released to the public

    PMSL
    And then there is this.... "A French lawyer ... Julien Fouchet ... [a] European law specialist from Bordeaux wants to challenge the validity of the EU negotiations on the basis the procedure was flawed ...
    It will call for the cancellation of the Brexit negotiating directives drafted by the EU, which are due to be adopted on 22 May, on the basis the referendum breached the rights of the UK citizens who were denied the vote. "


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-talks-illegal-uk-expats-british-abroad-not-vote-french-lawyer-julien-fouchet-european-a7745216.html
    Meaningless, since the referendum was advisory only.
    In fact, the Supreme Court saved Theresa's bacon. She was insisting going ahead without a parliamentary vote.
    Yes, but the other side of the coin is that, regardless of our legal system, the Commission has to follow the EU's legal system. We need two sides to negotiate.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,327

    So predictable

    2 u-turns in 2 months, I look forward to the next 2 years...

    The big one will be over a second EU referendum. There's no other way to get off the massive hook the government is on.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jamesrbuk: Prediction: expect writeups of Nick Timothy to suddenly get a *lot* less favourable
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, I'm annoyed now. The policy is popular in the marginals, any suggestion of a cap on care costs is just pandering to the media outrage. I thought Theresa had the balls to go on this and stick to it.

    I agree with you about the policy being better than what we have now.

    I suspect (from May’s point of view) a U-turn, or clarification, is right.

    The media need their pound of flesh.
    So she's now upset everyone who's just spent four days defending this, and given ammunition to everyone that thinks she isn't strong and stable.

    Should have stuck with it.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,170
    I wonder if OGH has ever thought of offering PB as a giant focus group to politicians.

    We would be a better and cheaper sounding board than their arselicking spads.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    The Tories are not losing votes to Labour - they are losing some to 'not sure' and 'might not bother'. They are fortunate that UKIP are not around.

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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    What an utter disaster. Not only has she capitulated to media pressure (which ruins the 'strong and stable' and 'tough but necessary' campaign themes); by not stating what the cap will be, she ensures that this farrago will run and run.

    Maybe working on a collective farm won't be so bad. Like a gap year on a kibbutz, for the rest of your life.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    Wales might be a Lib -> Lab swing ?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465

    Reading it at the moment - excellent! Though Grant is a bit old to play Thorpe (by about two decades...)
    Thorpe looked a lot older than he was though. He could have passed for 60 by the time he resigned.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    chestnut said:

    The Tories are not losing votes to Labour - they are losing some to 'not sure' and 'might not bother'. They are fortunate that UKIP are not around.

    Exactly.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    National Insurance Rise

    Workers on company boards

    Holding an election

    The Dementia Tax

    Strong and Stable Leader or Weak and Wobbly Leader?
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    So what are the odds that May scrapes through this election with a small majority, then is immediately challenged for the leadership by the headbangers who think she is going to screw up Brexit as badly as this?

    Very low, even allowing for the fact that in the Tory Party, you don't 'challenge' for the leadership. It's not 1990.

    The problem that May has is that she's not really suited to electioneering. That skillset, however, is very different from the one needed to run a government or lead negotiations.
    She also really REALLY needs to widen her circle of advisors. She HAS to learn from this disaster. Get out of the bunker, put Timothy and Hill back in their box, get some smart people who will answer back or correct her.

    This debacle all comes from her reliance on a tiny group of wonks that have been with her for yonks. Not healthy.
    And what is Lynton Crosby up to? Has somebody put something in his tea, or are they just not listening to him?
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    matt said:

    Aren't you planning to move to Ireland? I'd have a look at the politicians there if I were you.

    I never said I was moving Ireland, just that I was sorting out my citizenship and getting my passport sorted. The whole EU is my oyster.

    The assumption in this parish is that because I was sorting out Irish citizenship then I was going there. Whoops!
    Ah, one of the plastic paddies (even if you are from Ulster). All the benefits, none of the tax and religious bigotry.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I'm not even sure this u turn solves the issue. People aren't concerned about a cap, they are pissed at the prospect of having to pay at all. Whatever the realities of the situation, they are trying to sell a cup of sick. Should have avoided.
This discussion has been closed.