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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation phone poll has CON lead down 10 points in a week to

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    Mr. Eagles, so was Caracalla.

    Mr. Observer, I think you're misidentifying the flaw. It's stupidity.

    Even if you believe this policy is right, the lack of preparation to defend obvious attacks a few weeks before an election that she called herself is reminiscent of the financial idiocy of people selling SIVs and CDOs without even understanding what they were.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256



    Conservatives now 1.06 on the Moist Seats market.

    :+1::D:D

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    Jason said:

    I bet the Tories wish they could all climb into a time machine right about now and go back to last Thursday morning. Dear oh dear, what a fucking mess.

    Yes!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ok, Brexiteers, what odds are you offering on Freedom of Movement and single market membership from "strong and Stable" Tezza now?
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Having been brave to attach a large barnacle to the boat in the middle of the General Election, it now seems they are going to try and remove it asap...

    Not impressed. This could alter my vote.... oh hang on, I haven't got one.

    This kipper is a laugh isn't he...

    https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/866602441231540225
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    TGOHF said:

    So thanks to pressure from the left, the middle classes's inheritances are safe ?

    Strange times.

    Indeed, my mum and dad were pretty pissed off too, but thanks to the left, they'll be able to allow me to buy my Ferrari in 20odd years time.

    Thanks lefties!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    Scott_P said:

    Ok, Brexiteers, what odds are you offering on Freedom of Movement and single market membership from "strong and Stable" Tezza now?

    Chance of single market membership? Must be near zero, surely?
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Osborne doesn't know what a u-turn is, no wonder he was a bad politician.
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    midwinter said:

    You have to laugh. One incompetent marxist fool, one inept spineless fool and Farron. Wow. What a choice

    There's always Nuttal and the job-sharing greens.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    midwinter said:

    You have to laugh. One incompetent marxist fool, one inept spineless fool and Farron. Wow. What a choice

    Maybe Brussels could arrange for a technocratic government to take over as our elected politicians clearly aren't up to managing Brexit.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Theresa is for turning.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    Mr. Woolie, the alternative is Corbyn.

    At least Corbyn is consistent and sticks to what he believes in.
    Always been a big fan of trident, has he? :p
    :D
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    midwinter said:

    You have to laugh. One incompetent marxist fool, one inept spineless fool and Farron. Wow. What a choice

    Exactly.

    Thankfully it is only an election. Imagine if any of these people were trying to do something like negotiate a deal that will affect the country for the foreseeable future and affect all its political and trade relationships ....
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    camel said:

    midwinter said:

    You have to laugh. One incompetent marxist fool, one inept spineless fool and Farron. Wow. What a choice

    There's always Nuttal and the job-sharing greens.

    They are begiining to look like political geniuses compared to U turn Tessie and co.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,904
    kyf_100 said:

    So, a spread bet on what the cap will be: opening mid-price £150k?

    100k, to make it easy to remember. "Whatever happens, you will never spend more than 100k on care, and whatever happens, you will always have at least 100k to pass on to your loved ones."
    4 days ago Jeremy Hunt, health secretary, said the Conservative party dropped its previous plan for a cap on care costs after concluding that it would be unfair.

    Now its Tippex time

    Strong and Stable my Arse
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ok, Brexiteers, what odds are you offering on Freedom of Movement and single market membership from "strong and Stable" Tezza now?

    Chance of single market membership? Must be near zero, surely?
    Chance of actually pulling the trigger to leave the single market? Also near zero. It's an odd dilemma.
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Think a dead cat is required. Scrap workers on South Georgia would do the trick.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,753

    midwinter said:

    You have to laugh. One incompetent marxist fool, one inept spineless fool and Farron. Wow. What a choice

    Maybe Brussels could arrange for a technocratic government to take over as our elected politicians clearly aren't up to managing Brexit.
    Lead by Blair, Mandelson and Clegg?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    TGOHF said:

    So thanks to pressure from the left, the middle classes's inheritances are safe ?

    Strange times.

    If May really is so weak she cannot withstand pressure from the left then she should not be anywhere near power.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015

    kyf_100 said:

    So, a spread bet on what the cap will be: opening mid-price £150k?

    100k, to make it easy to remember. "Whatever happens, you will never spend more than 100k on care, and whatever happens, you will always have at least 100k to pass on to your loved ones."
    4 days ago Jeremy Hunt, health secretary, said the Conservative party dropped its previous plan for a cap on care costs after concluding that it would be unfair.

    Now its Tippex time

    Strong and Stable my Arse
    Ah, at least those millionaires have the majority of their assets protected. Makes you feel all warm inside, doesn't it? :smiley:
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Brom said:

    Osborne doesn't know what a u-turn is, no wonder he was a bad politician.

    Tax credits u-turn.

    Was the beginning of the end for him.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: PM up now with lots of expectation of a partial U turn or clarification on social care manifesto promise
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Brom said:

    Osborne doesn't know what a u-turn is, no wonder he was a bad politician.

    I think we should be beginning to realise just how lucky we were to have Dave and George post 2010. Imagine where we would be with the current crop of clowns.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    TGOHF said:

    So thanks to pressure from the left, the middle classes's inheritances are safe ?

    Strange times.

    Suspect they heard it going down badly with tory voters in the south on the door step.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015

    TGOHF said:

    So thanks to pressure from the left, the middle classes's inheritances are safe ?

    Strange times.

    If May really is so weak she cannot withstand pressure from the left then she should not be anywhere near power.

    Suspect it wasn't that what did it, rather reaction within her own party.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Quite a thing to have to backtrack on a manifesto during a campaign if that's what she does
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    OK, I may now be revising my
    "Tories are definitely going to get a massive majority guaranteed fact" stance now
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,963

    kyf_100 said:

    So, a spread bet on what the cap will be: opening mid-price £150k?

    100k, to make it easy to remember. "Whatever happens, you will never spend more than 100k on care, and whatever happens, you will always have at least 100k to pass on to your loved ones."
    4 days ago Jeremy Hunt, health secretary, said the Conservative party dropped its previous plan for a cap on care costs after concluding that it would be unfair.

    Now its Tippex time

    Strong and Stable my Arse
    The EU is the big winner here. Even if May secures a decent-ish majority she looks weak and indecisive and easily pushed around.

    If I were Labour I'd be hammering that point home for the next two and a half weeks.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    So thanks to pressure from the left, the middle classes's inheritances are safe ?

    Strange times.

    If May really is so weak she cannot withstand pressure from the left then she should not be anywhere near power.

    Suspect it wasn't that what did it, rather reaction within her own party.
    no no - it was the kippers...
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    midwinter said:

    You have to laugh. One incompetent marxist fool, one inept spineless fool and Farron. Wow. What a choice

    Exactly.

    Thankfully it is only an election. Imagine if any of these people were trying to do something like negotiate a deal that will affect the country for the foreseeable future and affect all its political and trade relationships ....
    A comforting prospect. Nice to know our PM elect is made of stern stuff.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    For anyone who thinks things could not get worse: what hasn't been dwelt on is that you only get the benefit of the last £100,000 being ringfenced if you need a carer because you are ill (with dementia or whatever); if you have care simply because you are old and weak (but otherwise healthy) you don't. Lovely discussions between the LA and the recently bereaved on the lines of "Sorry love, your mum was a bit confused and incontinent, but not confused and incontinent enough to count as dementia."

    This whole area is so incredibly difficult. We save during our life - principally - to ensure that we can afford to live when we are no longer able to work. But thanks to a multi-decade housing boom, parents are often sitting on massive amounts of "equity", and the children want to inherit. (Not least because they are typically sitting on large mortgages.)
    Also worth remembering that the Bank of Mum & Dad is now one of the top mortgage lenders - the last thing folks need is having to pay back Mum & Dad unexpectedly !!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953

    Good luck! But satire aside, the point is that no party can successfully push more than one message at once. As Richard observes, it's a difficult choice for them.

    The smartest approach would be to try to elide the fightback on the social care policy with their main campaign message (remember 'strong and stable', anyone?). For a textbook example of how to do that, listen to Ken Clarke's interview on yesterday's R4 World this Weekend.

    However, not many politicians are class acts like Ken Clarke, and it's difficult to do without getting very wordy and sounding defensive.
    Yes, I think you're right. But saying "OK, OK, we'll put a cap on it already, details after the election, calm down ffs" doesn't do it. What will happen is that people will start picking holes in the cap (cf. Beverley and Dyedwoolie instantly on this thread) and we'll still be arguing about it for a couple more days. I think the media will get bored and move on by Wednresday, but that's five days on the subject.

    The thing is that it's complicated. Offer a simple answer and its gets picked apart. Offer a complicated answer and it sounds defensive. Ken Clarke has a natural authority that helps him do it, but not many politicians do.
    You're right. Tories need to get out there and defend the policy.
    Anything close to looking like a u-turn on it now is the worst of all worlds.

    The policy is right, as it was when it was proposed. Get out there and sell it.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,819
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:
    Can George Osborne be any less helpful.

    It's a CLARIFICATION.
    Remember - one doesn't issue a clarification to make oneself clear; one issues a clarification to put oneself in the clear
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    I'm glad Paddy has limited my stakes on most of these constituency bets now tbh.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JasonFarrellSky: Corbyn welcomes "U-turn on social care" from Conservatives.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    except the mail were supporting it (the mail on sunday didnt)

    https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/866604302646771712
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Sandpit said:

    Good luck! But satire aside, the point is that no party can successfully push more than one message at once. As Richard observes, it's a difficult choice for them.

    The smartest approach would be to try to elide the fightback on the social care policy with their main campaign message (remember 'strong and stable', anyone?). For a textbook example of how to do that, listen to Ken Clarke's interview on yesterday's R4 World this Weekend.

    However, not many politicians are class acts like Ken Clarke, and it's difficult to do without getting very wordy and sounding defensive.
    Yes, I think you're right. But saying "OK, OK, we'll put a cap on it already, details after the election, calm down ffs" doesn't do it. What will happen is that people will start picking holes in the cap (cf. Beverley and Dyedwoolie instantly on this thread) and we'll still be arguing about it for a couple more days. I think the media will get bored and move on by Wednresday, but that's five days on the subject.

    The thing is that it's complicated. Offer a simple answer and its gets picked apart. Offer a complicated answer and it sounds defensive. Ken Clarke has a natural authority that helps him do it, but not many politicians do.
    You're right. Tories need to get out there and defend the policy.
    Anything close to looking like a u-turn on it now is the worst of all worlds.

    The policy is right, as it was when it was proposed. Get out there and sell it.
    The risk in doing that is that you have to be 100% sure that the leadership won't backtrack, otherwise you end up defending something that's both unpopular and no longer policy.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Alistair said:

    OK, I may now be revising my
    "Tories are definitely going to get a massive majority guaranteed fact" stance now

    Is "Claw hammered" going to become the antidote phrase to "nailed on"?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jessicaelgot: PM says there were "hysterical warnings" about Brexit by politicians which voters in Wales chose to ignore. Is she describing herself?

    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/866604971931959296
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,806

    Good luck! But satire aside, the point is that no party can successfully push more than one message at once. As Richard observes, it's a difficult choice for them.

    The smartest approach would be to try to elide the fightback on the social care policy with their main campaign message (remember 'strong and stable', anyone?). For a textbook example of how to do that, listen to Ken Clarke's interview on yesterday's R4 World this Weekend.

    However, not many politicians are class acts like Ken Clarke, and it's difficult to do without getting very wordy and sounding defensive.
    Yes, I think you're right. But saying "OK, OK, we'll put a cap on it already, details after the election, calm down ffs" doesn't do it. What will happen is that people will start picking holes in the cap (cf. Beverley and Dyedwoolie instantly on this thread) and we'll still be arguing about it for a couple more days. I think the media will get bored and move on by Wednresday, but that's five days on the subject.

    The thing is that it's complicated. Offer a simple answer and its gets picked apart. Offer a complicated answer and it sounds defensive. Ken Clarke has a natural authority that helps him do it, but not many politicians do.
    The more basic problem is that the term "Dementia Tax" is sticking. Even people use it, who know it isn't really a tax on dementia. It's a lot like the Poll Tax - a policy that was drummed up on the spur of the moment without any consultation and which the Conservatives in that case as well felt they had to double down on.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,753
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,904
    U Turn however incompetent it looks should do the trick

    Lab has peaked IMO TMICIPM
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm glad Paddy has limited my stakes on most of these constituency bets now tbh.

    Glad I've stuck with Scottish Constituencies in the main as I think they will be buffeted by forces mostly unconnected by the national stage.

    The Scot Leaders debate was almost entirely devolved matters.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    nunu said:

    TGOHF said:

    So thanks to pressure from the left, the middle classes's inheritances are safe ?

    Strange times.

    Suspect they heard it going down badly with tory voters in the south on the door step.
    And in the south it makes no bloody difference. In the Midlands marginals its a good policy.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    What took the Tories so long.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    From the article someone posted earlier. Thought this was interesting.

    It helps to look at the numbers. Around one in 10 elderly people will need to spend more than £100,000 on their care costs, with some facing costs as high as £300,000. But the median wealth of people in their seventies, the age when they are most likely to need social care, is only around £150,000. Under the Conservative reforms, the majority of elderly people who need extensive care towards the end of their life would not face any significant out-of-pocket payments. The state would end up providing for them.

    So the median person in their 70s pays around 1/3 of care costs. At the top end, people have to pay up to £300,000 (which is at, worst, 75% of their wealth).

    Doesn't seem unreasonable to me. Perhaps a way to improve the politics would be to include, say, a cap on £500,000 on care spending that any individual will need to pay? I don't know the numbers, but presumably that wouldn't end up being a huge commitment for the government?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-tory-manifesto-pensioners-a7747196.html

    May needs to be all over this tonight. I don't want to go all SeanT, but this is make or break time!
    I agree. This is turning toxic.

    I wanted the cap. Looks like that has gone.

    So, I want some guarantees on what exactly this deferment of the payment until death means. For example, three different Cabinet ministers talked about this as a positive. Each time, and I was listening carefully, they said "and a spouse would be protected".

    What about partners? Civil or otherwise.

    Tories like marriage. Are we actually seeing a backdoor method to increase marriage? Surely not in 2017?
    What about my brother-in-law who has moved in with his mum to look after after her? He is not a spouse or a civil partner but has a 49% share in her property (she has the other 51%)
    Then only the 51% is liable for the costs. Presumably there is detail to be worked out, but typically you would expect that the government would have a right to sell the house once his mother passes on. (Any coinvestment like this would include the right to force a sale). He would receive 49% + at least £100K (assuming no other dependents)
    So he will lose his house but get some money? He has three siblings none of whom have any rights to the house (they all agreed that).

    I do not think he will be voting Tory
    Why does he believe that someone less fortunate than himself should pay for his mother's care?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,904
    TM minor parties/ major parties mix up
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    FF43 said:

    Good luck! But satire aside, the point is that no party can successfully push more than one message at once. As Richard observes, it's a difficult choice for them.

    The smartest approach would be to try to elide the fightback on the social care policy with their main campaign message (remember 'strong and stable', anyone?). For a textbook example of how to do that, listen to Ken Clarke's interview on yesterday's R4 World this Weekend.

    However, not many politicians are class acts like Ken Clarke, and it's difficult to do without getting very wordy and sounding defensive.
    Yes, I think you're right. But saying "OK, OK, we'll put a cap on it already, details after the election, calm down ffs" doesn't do it. What will happen is that people will start picking holes in the cap (cf. Beverley and Dyedwoolie instantly on this thread) and we'll still be arguing about it for a couple more days. I think the media will get bored and move on by Wednresday, but that's five days on the subject.

    The thing is that it's complicated. Offer a simple answer and its gets picked apart. Offer a complicated answer and it sounds defensive. Ken Clarke has a natural authority that helps him do it, but not many politicians do.
    The more basic problem is that the term "Dementia Tax" is sticking. Even people use it, who know it isn't really a tax on dementia. It's a lot like the Poll Tax - a policy that was drummed up on the spur of the moment without any consultation and which the Conservatives in that case as well felt they had to double down on.
    And it was the perception of trialling the Poll Tax in Scotland that contributed to the Tories becoming toxic there for a generation. Now it seems their approach is to insulate Wales and Scotland and test out their policies on England.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    She is on the attack.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Well this is all going well isn't it.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sandpit said:

    nunu said:

    TGOHF said:

    So thanks to pressure from the left, the middle classes's inheritances are safe ?

    Strange times.

    Suspect they heard it going down badly with tory voters in the south on the door step.
    And in the south it makes no bloody difference. In the Midlands marginals its a good policy.
    A small swing to the Libdems of 4% would mean they GAIN Bath, there are lots of seats like that in the south west, plus london.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,926
    If she is U-turning I assume ICM is going to be brutal for the Tories when it's released shortly.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,904
    Not heard the U Turn yet
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: From Standard front page, looks like social care u-turn is coming in the form of an on the record Jeremy Hunt quote
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015

    She is on the attack.

    No explicit mention of the cap though? Unless it is to come...
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    isamisam Posts: 41,014
    edited May 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    Mr. Woolie, the alternative is Corbyn.

    At least Corbyn is consistent and sticks to what he believes in.
    Always been a big fan of trident, has he? :p
    :D
    He used to be an active supporter of the IRA and now he is trying to pretend he met with people from both sides of the argument

    Jezza's a sell out!!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015

    Not heard the U Turn yet

    Oh... here it is now.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: That T May U-turn in full: "That consultation will include an absolute limit on the amount people have to pay for their care costs."
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    How many times is she going to say 'fake claims by Jeremy Corbyn'? She can't blame Corbyn for the backlash.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    There.. that wasn't so difficult.

    Jeez.
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Sandpit said:

    nunu said:

    TGOHF said:

    So thanks to pressure from the left, the middle classes's inheritances are safe ?

    Strange times.

    Suspect they heard it going down badly with tory voters in the south on the door step.
    And in the south it makes no bloody difference. In the Midlands marginals its a good policy.
    Not everyone in the south lives in a mansion. Wht on earth should we pay more for our houses and then pay more in dementia tax. It's unfair, poorly presented and worst of all incredibly stupid.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    That was a u-turn I think. The cap is back, but it will be high
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,904
    Reading from a piece of paper and there it is a maximum amount but we do not know how much.


    Will not go away unless more specific


    When is the U turn on this U turn
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    FF43 said:

    Good luck! But satire aside, the point is that no party can successfully push more than one message at once. As Richard observes, it's a difficult choice for them.

    The smartest approach would be to try to elide the fightback on the social care policy with their main campaign message (remember 'strong and stable', anyone?). For a textbook example of how to do that, listen to Ken Clarke's interview on yesterday's R4 World this Weekend.

    However, not many politicians are class acts like Ken Clarke, and it's difficult to do without getting very wordy and sounding defensive.
    Yes, I think you're right. But saying "OK, OK, we'll put a cap on it already, details after the election, calm down ffs" doesn't do it. What will happen is that people will start picking holes in the cap (cf. Beverley and Dyedwoolie instantly on this thread) and we'll still be arguing about it for a couple more days. I think the media will get bored and move on by Wednresday, but that's five days on the subject.

    The thing is that it's complicated. Offer a simple answer and its gets picked apart. Offer a complicated answer and it sounds defensive. Ken Clarke has a natural authority that helps him do it, but not many politicians do.
    The more basic problem is that the term "Dementia Tax" is sticking. Even people use it, who know it isn't really a tax on dementia. It's a lot like the Poll Tax - a policy that was drummed up on the spur of the moment without any consultation and which the Conservatives in that case as well felt they had to double down on.
    Actually, the Poll Tax went through a lot of development - though fatally among policy wonks and the like. Willlam Waldegrave's memoirs are very good on it.

    If it's retained, I suspect that like the Bedroom Tax, the phrase will fall into disuse because it's not a tax and it's not obvious when it's being paid (ironically, unlike the Community Charge, which *was* a tax and should always have been labelled as such).

    However, it won't fall into use over the next three weeks.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: So..4 days after Tory manifesto announced scrapping planned social care cap - it is now an option for consultation
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @joncstone: Theresa May describes accurate descriptions of her social care policy as "Jeremy Corbyn’s fake claims"

    @davies_will: And off she went with a Trumpetty Trump - Trump, Trump, Trump twitter.com/joncstone/stat…
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    A non u turn u turnbexause she hasn't given a figure. What's the Point? It could be half a million or 50 grand. Idiot.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,926
    Scott_P said:
    George Osborne is a loser.

    At least Theresa May is out there fighting (and hopefully still winning) where-as Osborne is just a washed up has-been throwing rocks from the sidelines.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    RobD said:

    There.. that wasn't so difficult.

    Jeez.

    obviously follow up question is what is the cap though.... the media will be all over that now... fox not quite shot...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015

    RobD said:

    There.. that wasn't so difficult.

    Jeez.

    obviously follow up question is what is the cap though.... the media will be all over that now... fox not quite shot...
    I was going to say you must assume they are prepared for that question, but who knows :o
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,904
    GIN1138 said:

    If she is U-turning I assume ICM is going to be brutal for the Tories when it's released shortly.

    No 16% lead surely
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015

    GIN1138 said:

    If she is U-turning I assume ICM is going to be brutal for the Tories when it's released shortly.

    No 16% lead surely
    More expectations management? :p
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    George Osborne is a loser.

    At least Theresa May is out there fighting (and hopefully still winning) where-as Osborne is just a washed up has-been throwing rocks from the sidelines.
    May is inept and spineless. Period.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Charles said:


    So he will lose his house but get some money? He has three siblings none of whom have any rights to the house (they all agreed that).

    I do not think he will be voting Tory

    Why does he believe that someone less fortunate than himself should pay for his mother's care?
    You are missing the point. People, in general, do not think in the abstract. They first of all think how something will affect them and those nearest and dearest to them. Very few think, "Well... it will be hell for me, but the country will benefit so that is OK"

    He has already given his job to help her and become a full time carer and his siblings are helping as they can so he is already paying for her care and she may still need to go to a home and if she does then all this sacrifice will have the added insult of making him homeless.

    Do you think that he is going to sign up for a policy like that? Regardless of what it does for the economy or public finances?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Theresa May standing in front of a slogan saying "Forward, together", neither word of which feels particularly apt at the moment.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: That T May U-turn in full: "That consultation will include an absolute limit on the amount people have to pay for their care costs."

    Yes.... The Conservatives like going in for consultations, don`t they? Then they ignore them afterwards, and carry on doing what they had in mind in the first place. We need more than "a consultation" from Mrs May.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    Scott_P said:

    @joncstone: Theresa May describes accurate descriptions of her social care policy as "Jeremy Corbyn’s fake claims"

    Such "hysterical warnings" will just undermine the rest of their anti-Corbyn campaign.
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    SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    I would be extremely disappointed if the Tories reverse this policy though, from what I can see, this is only being suggested by a newspaper editor with a vendetta against May.

    It increases the worst case scenario from the estate only receiving £23,000 to only receiving £100,000 so, if you insist on calling it a tax, that tax burden has just reduced by £77,000

    Anyone who cares about this issue already knows this and anyone who doesn't, well it's not going to change their vote is it?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,753
    So they won't tell us what the threshold will be for losing Winter Fuel Allowance. And now they say there will be a cap for the Dementia Tax, but won't say what it is.

    Most people can just assume that they will lose their WFH and that the cap will be more than the value of their home, so they will still get screwed twice-over by The Nasty Party.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    George Osborne is a loser.

    At least Theresa May is out there fighting (and hopefully still winning) where-as Osborne is just a washed up has-been throwing rocks from the sidelines.

    He propelled the Tories into Government. And Tezza looks like she might reverse that
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Couple of North welsh odds that are massively internally out of sync:

    Back the Tories at 1-4 in Value of Clwyd (SkyBet), and Labour in Delyn at 4-1 (Bet365)
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,904
    When is a U Turn not a U Turn

    When it leaves people completely in doubt how much the Dementia Tax Maximum spend will be.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,926
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: So..4 days after Tory manifesto announced scrapping planned social care cap - it is now an option for consultation

    That's all the manifesto should ever have said. We will "consult" , we'll have a "royal commission and act on its findings" etc.

    Nothing more needed to be said.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    Get in there Theresa!
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    So they won't tell us what the threshold will be for losing Winter Fuel Allowance. And now they say there will be a cap for the Dementia Tax, but won't say what it is.

    Most people can just assume that they will lose their WFH and that the cap will be more than the value of their home, so they will still get screwed twice-over by The Nasty Party.

    well that's bollocks - the £100k minimum stands
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @stuartmillar159: Impressive that May can go straight from social care U-turn to claiming that only she is capable of getting a good Brexit deal
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    GIN1138 said:

    If she is U-turning I assume ICM is going to be brutal for the Tories when it's released shortly.

    How is ICM due "shortly" to be affected by today's events? The worst that can happen is, it shows a tory surge and enthusiastic cross-party support for dementia tax. I think we can rule that out.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    I reckon she's u-turned now because she's got that interview with Andrew Neil at 7.30pm tonight.

    That would have been rather brutal 30 mins of TV for her
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    Am I alone in finding the 'four nations' rhetoric slightly odd? The UK contains two nations, a principality, and a province.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    I reckon she's u-turned now because she's got that interview with Andrew Neil at 7.30pm tonight.

    That would have been rather brutal 30 mins of TV for her

    yup
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Charles said:


    So he will lose his house but get some money? He has three siblings none of whom have any rights to the house (they all agreed that).

    I do not think he will be voting Tory

    Why does he believe that someone less fortunate than himself should pay for his mother's care?
    You are missing the point. People, in general, do not think in the abstract. They first of all think how something will affect them and those nearest and dearest to them. Very few think, "Well... it will be hell for me, but the country will benefit so that is OK"

    He has already given his job to help her and become a full time carer and his siblings are helping as they can so he is already paying for her care and she may still need to go to a home and if she does then all this sacrifice will have the added insult of making him homeless.

    Do you think that he is going to sign up for a policy like that? Regardless of what it does for the economy or public finances?
    What do you think the present policy is?

    I can tell you.

    If she needs to go in a home tomorrow, then the flat will be have to be sold to pay the care home bills.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Strong and Stable...

    @IanDunt: She's Remain then Leave. She says there won't be election then there will. She wants to break a manifesto commitment on tax then retain it.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Weak and Wobbly rules
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,926
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    George Osborne is a loser.

    At least Theresa May is out there fighting (and hopefully still winning) where-as Osborne is just a washed up has-been throwing rocks from the sidelines.

    He propelled the Tories into Government. And Tezza looks like she might reverse that
    Actually Cameron and Osborne nearly blew the 2010 election. Against Gordon Brown and the worst recession since the 1930's...
This discussion has been closed.