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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation phone poll has CON lead down 10 points in a week to

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934

    So they won't tell us what the threshold will be for losing Winter Fuel Allowance. And now they say there will be a cap for the Dementia Tax, but won't say what it is.

    Most people can just assume that they will lose their WFH and that the cap will be more than the value of their home, so they will still get screwed twice-over by The Nasty Party.

    This really could end in disaster for TM.

    If she had any sense she would have said £78k cap will stay but be extended to care at home
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    I reckon she's u-turned now because she's got that interview with Andrew Neil at 7.30pm tonight.

    That would have been rather brutal 30 mins of TV for her

    Now the questions are going to be all about why these proposals are better than the Dilnot proposals. Hope they've done their homework.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    George Osborne is a loser.

    At least Theresa May is out there fighting (and hopefully still winning) where-as Osborne is just a washed up has-been throwing rocks from the sidelines.

    He propelled the Tories into Government.
    And the Uk out of the EU.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Laura K with a tough question but the Corbynites won't credit her for it...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    And the Uk out of the EU.

    If a single Tweet can shift Tezza this much, he may yet keep us in... :smile:
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,327
    "Nobody is going to have to pay for their care... while they're alive."
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    But no answer on the cap value. Hm..
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:


    So he will lose his house but get some money? He has three siblings none of whom have any rights to the house (they all agreed that).

    I do not think he will be voting Tory

    Why does he believe that someone less fortunate than himself should pay for his mother's care?
    You are missing the point. People, in general, do not think in the abstract. They first of all think how something will affect them and those nearest and dearest to them. Very few think, "Well... it will be hell for me, but the country will benefit so that is OK"

    He has already given his job to help her and become a full time carer and his siblings are helping as they can so he is already paying for her care and she may still need to go to a home and if she does then all this sacrifice will have the added insult of making him homeless.

    Do you think that he is going to sign up for a policy like that? Regardless of what it does for the economy or public finances?
    People like free stuff.

    The country can't afford it.

    There is no way that the taxpayer should subsidise my parents' care, for example.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Claire_Phipps: Importantly, Theresa May hasn't said what this totally-didn't-just-make-this-up-on-the-spot cap on social care costs will be
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,046
    Has TMay u-turned or not?

    She's so crap that she can't even do a u-turn properly. Jeez!
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    George Osborne is a loser.

    At least Theresa May is out there fighting (and hopefully still winning) where-as Osborne is just a washed up has-been throwing rocks from the sidelines.

    He propelled the Tories into Government. And Tezza looks like she might reverse that
    Actually Cameron and Osborne nearly blew the 2010 election. Against Gordon Brown and the worst recession since the 1930's...
    Trouble was the voters remembered the last Tory government and what the right did to them then. Quite amazing how many seats they won really. Still think Tessie will get a majority?
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Charles said:


    So he will lose his house but get some money? He has three siblings none of whom have any rights to the house (they all agreed that).

    I do not think he will be voting Tory

    Why does he believe that someone less fortunate than himself should pay for his mother's care?
    You are missing the point. People, in general, do not think in the abstract. They first of all think how something will affect them and those nearest and dearest to them. Very few think, "Well... it will be hell for me, but the country will benefit so that is OK"

    He has already given his job to help her and become a full time carer and his siblings are helping as they can so he is already paying for her care and she may still need to go to a home and if she does then all this sacrifice will have the added insult of making him homeless.

    Do you think that he is going to sign up for a policy like that? Regardless of what it does for the economy or public finances?
    What do you think the present policy is?

    I can tell you.

    If she needs to go in a home tomorrow, then the flat will be have to be sold to pay the care home bills.
    That is not the point. The election will not be won or lost on the current policy, it will be on the perception of the new policy because that is what is in the headlines.

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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,110
    Sandpit said:

    When was the last time a plane flew from Riyadh to Tel Aviv?

    WW2 probably when the RAF had a presence at both.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MattChorley: "Isn't this a manifesto of chaos?"
    @RobNisbetSky pours some more fuel on the fire of Sky's feud with No10
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    RobD said:

    I reckon she's u-turned now because she's got that interview with Andrew Neil at 7.30pm tonight.

    That would have been rather brutal 30 mins of TV for her

    Now the questions are going to be all about why these proposals are better than the Dilnot proposals. Hope they've done their homework.
    Wouldn't count on it on current form.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307

    So they won't tell us what the threshold will be for losing Winter Fuel Allowance. And now they say there will be a cap for the Dementia Tax, but won't say what it is.

    Most people can just assume that they will lose their WFH and that the cap will be more than the value of their home, so they will still get screwed twice-over by The Nasty Party.

    The WFA means test was actually supported by most voters according to yougov it was the social care plans which were the killer, capping the amount paid on care bills would not reverse all the damage but it should lance the boil
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    midwinter said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    George Osborne is a loser.

    At least Theresa May is out there fighting (and hopefully still winning) where-as Osborne is just a washed up has-been throwing rocks from the sidelines.
    May is inept and spineless. Period.
    It certainly looks that way. This has secured the worst of both worlds for her. If you moot something unpopular but necessary, you can argue that it's nasty but necessary. If you then abandon it you've taken the popularity hit for no discernible gain whatever.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Strong and Stable...

    @IanDunt: She's Remain then Leave. She says there won't be election then there will. She wants to break a manifesto commitment on tax then retain it.

    1. There's the small matter of the referendum which Leave won.

    2. She wanted to secure a mandate for Brexit negotiations.

    3. All this social care stuff is a **** up no getting away from that. Still if they show they are listening to people's concerns this election can be salvaged....
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255
    TGOHF said:

    So thanks to pressure from the left, the middle classes's inheritances are safe ?

    Strange times.

    Safe to be plundered by Labour's wealth tax and other taxes, you mean.

    Labour does not want you spending your own money on yourself because they want to grab it instead. This is the point which the Tories ought, if they had any sense, be ramming home.

    All those give-aways (another one this morning) and nationalisations and borrowing all add up and they cannot be paid for by the 1% as Labour claim.

    So add up all the spending and tell people that this will cost each and every one of us so much per annum, so much in extra tax. This is how much Labour will cost you - because they will. And it will not be just the rich who pay but each and every one of us, down to tthe students saaddled with extra debt and unable to find jobs because zero hours contracts have been abolished or because firms are not hiring.

    Labour's manifesto is uncosted and unserious promises not the hard choices which have to be made. May may be rubbish at politics but asking the well off to contribute to their own care is sensible.

    If people get hysterical at this and vote in Corbyn instead, imagine the hysteria when they see what a spendthrift and incompetent Marxist-inspired government will do.

    Ironically, I think May may have done this in order to get past the two previous criticisms made of her: (a) nothing on social care and (b) trying to do things not in the manifesto. People really should be grown up enough to realise that your savings and assets are what should be used first when times are hard.

    Still Corbyn is available for those who aren't grown ups.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    When was the last time a plane flew from Riyadh to Tel Aviv?

    WW2 probably when the RAF had a presence at both.
    @MajorCBS: For the history books. Air Force One flight from Riyadh to Tel Aviv first direct AF1 flight from KSA to Israel. @POTUS @netanyahu
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    SURBITON SAID

    'If he had said he was against Trident, you would have lapped it up. Now he has said unequivocally he supports Trident, you dismiss that. Basically, you are an alt-Right headbanger.'


    You are out of order and need to retract that last accusation
    .
    Insulting someone when you are losing is the sign of weakness.

    Use a better argument rather than insult a huge part of the British public who support the nuclear defence of our Country,

    But so many of the people who say that seek to deny other countries the right to do the same.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    murali_s said:

    Has TMay u-turned or not?

    She's so crap that she can't even do a u-turn properly. Jeez!

    She's O-turning - Junker maybe right !
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @krishgm: "have not changed the principles in the manifesto....we have clarified" says Theresa May under questioning, after clear u-turn
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Jeremy Corbyn might just beat Tony Blair's winning 35.2% (UK-wide) vote share in 2005.

    I wonder if that will serve as a psychological and political landmark - tricky to depose him among his supporters if he does "better than Blair"...
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    When was the last time a plane flew from Riyadh to Tel Aviv?

    WW2 probably when the RAF had a presence at both.
    @MajorCBS: For the history books. Air Force One flight from Riyadh to Tel Aviv first direct AF1 flight from KSA to Israel. @POTUS @netanyahu
    First direct AF1 flight not first direct flight.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    edited May 2017
    Phew. Damage limitation but this has blown out of the water any further use of 'strong and stable' and attacking labours manifesto as 'a shambles '. Perhaps not a bad thing then.

    At worst though this could at a stroke fatally undermine all the goodwill and strong ratings TM had built up. With labours shameless targeting of student votes on registration deadline day with their ridiculously unaffordable tuition fees bribe, I really do think we need to contemplate JC as PM as no longer beyond the realms of possibility.....
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    RobD said:

    But no answer on the cap value. Hm..

    YEEEEEEESSSSS excellent news for Labour doorstep.


    The Tories are still stealing your house


    Weak and Wobbly

    Excellent question from Crick


    TM going down like a bag of sick at her U Turn Presser
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @janemerrick23: "Doesn't this show you're really weak and wobbly not strong and stable," asks @MichaelLCrick.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Poor politics this.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    RobD said:

    But no answer on the cap value. Hm..

    YEEEEEEESSSSS excellent news for Labour doorstep.


    The Tories are still stealing your house


    Weak and Wobbly

    Excellent question from Crick


    TM going down like a bag of sick at her U Turn Presser
    Isn't that a tad disingenuous, especially given the current system?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    A brief read around a number of football related sites which were a great indicator of Brexit shows them all discussing the IRA - not social care.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @krishgm: Theresa May has now been asked twice where the new cap is and has twice ignored it. Starting to look like she doesn't know

    @Claire_Phipps: I know it's blah to cite The Thick Of It but this is the episode where they pretend they've announced a policy they didn't actually announce
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2017
    justin124 said:

    SURBITON SAID

    'If he had said he was against Trident, you would have lapped it up. Now he has said unequivocally he supports Trident, you dismiss that. Basically, you are an alt-Right headbanger.'


    You are out of order and need to retract that last accusation
    .
    Insulting someone when you are losing is the sign of weakness.

    Use a better argument rather than insult a huge part of the British public who support the nuclear defence of our Country,

    But so many of the people who say that seek to deny other countries the right to do the same.
    Absolutely! Because its not in the interest of our Country to allow those other countries the right to do the same.

    You do understand those people are interested what is best for our Country don't you? Or is that an alien concept?
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    And I think the Neil interview tonight could actually be more brutal than it might have been half an hour ago.

    In more reflective terms I remember us pb Tories getting all terribly excited on Bigotgate Day but it didn't result in a wipeout for Brown; it hardly had any traction at all with the voting public. This might blow over too.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Mayhem.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    midwinter said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    George Osborne is a loser.

    At least Theresa May is out there fighting (and hopefully still winning) where-as Osborne is just a washed up has-been throwing rocks from the sidelines.

    He propelled the Tories into Government. And Tezza looks like she might reverse that
    Actually Cameron and Osborne nearly blew the 2010 election. Against Gordon Brown and the worst recession since the 1930's...
    Trouble was the voters remembered the last Tory government and what the right did to them then. Quite amazing how many seats they won really. Still think Tessie will get a majority?
    If she can lance the boil on this social care stuff and get the focus back to Brexit 24/7 a large majority is still possible, yes.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    WHATS THE CAP?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @krishgm: "nothing has changed! nothing has changed!" says increasingly stressed looking Theresa May

    @janemerrick23: May is now showing a bit of irritation - "nothing has changed, nothing has changed," she says, arms going up in the air
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    So Osborn got it wrong again trying to stick the boot in and it was just a price cap. Either way it is sloppy stuff and should have been thought through before the manifesto was published.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Sandpit said:

    Good luck! But satire aside, the point is that no party can successfully push more than one message at once. As Richard observes, it's a difficult choice for them.

    The smartest approach would be to try to elide the fightback on the social care policy with their main campaign message (remember 'strong and stable', anyone?). For a textbook example of how to do that, listen to Ken Clarke's interview on yesterday's R4 World this Weekend.

    However, not many politicians are class acts like Ken Clarke, and it's difficult to do without getting very wordy and sounding defensive.
    Yes, I think you're right. But saying "OK, OK, we'll put a cap on it already, details after the election, calm down ffs" doesn't do it. What will happen is that people will start picking holes in the cap (cf. Beverley and Dyedwoolie instantly on this thread) and we'll still be arguing about it for a couple more days. I think the media will get bored and move on by Wednresday, but that's five days on the subject.

    The thing is that it's complicated. Offer a simple answer and its gets picked apart. Offer a complicated answer and it sounds defensive. Ken Clarke has a natural authority that helps him do it, but not many politicians do.
    You're right. Tories need to get out there and defend the policy.
    Anything close to looking like a u-turn on it now is the worst of all worlds.

    The policy is right, as it was when it was proposed. Get out there and sell it.
    The risk in doing that is that you have to be 100% sure that the leadership won't backtrack, otherwise you end up defending something that's both unpopular and no longer policy.
    Wow what a surprise not .All the PB Tories will now tell us they agree with Mays change of heart.You have a brain you can say something against the great leader.Nio wonder I m not a member of a political party because you have to parrot whatever your leader says .
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307

    So can we now put an end to the ridiculous Theresa May is the new Thatcher meme.

    Because the Lady is for turning.

    If the Iron Lady had turned on the poll tax she might have kept her job
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    WHATS THE CAP?

    I didn't quite catch that?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    And while Tories flounder, labour announce more unfunded sweeties....Free uni all from September including current students....If this doesn't get them to the ballot box what will?

    I saw this coming ages ago, but Tories don't seem to have any response.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Guardian student journalist hasn't a clue what she's asking
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    HYUFD said:

    So can we now put an end to the ridiculous Theresa May is the new Thatcher meme.

    Because the Lady is for turning.

    If the Iron Lady had turned on the poll tax she might have kept her job
    Not to mention when Maggie was at her best (79-87) she did regularly U-Turn...
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    calum said:
    Except under the current system, a lot of people are forced to sell their homes and who would actually face a lower cap under the Tories. Except the table doesn't include those people.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,327
    May angrily repeating that 'nothing has changed' while simultaneously backtracking is awful presentationally. She seems to find debating and campaigning to be an excruciating waste of her time.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    Interesting difference between Tory activists & Labour ones - the former applaud the answer to a tricky question, the latter boo the question....
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,046
    Mr. City, not sure you've been paying attention to the thread.

    Just got some election literature from the Labour chap. I do think this seat (Morley and Outwood) might be closer than others believe.

    Mr. Sykes, I partly agree. This is more serious, but for a lot of people it, frankly, won't matter. For those for whom it does, it will matter a great deal.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465

    Am I alone in finding the 'four nations' rhetoric slightly odd? The UK contains two nations, a principality, and a province.

    Nations are groups of people. As such, Britain does have four primary nations (in addition to British). Britain also has four internal countries, which are broadly synchronous with the nations but the terminology as to how to describe them is hopelessly confused - hence your comment.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    Brom said:

    So Osborn got it wrong again trying to stick the boot in and it was just a price cap. Either way it is sloppy stuff and should have been thought through before the manifesto was published.

    It should never have been in the manifesto...
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Oy.... who nicked my barnacles post on here..

    https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/866611727701618688
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    How do you think Labour are going to blow this cast iron PR opportunity?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Well, if you're going to do a U-turn, better to do it quickly, I guess.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuardianAnushka: Guardian's @jessicaelgot points out that basis of the policy still same, in that dementia patients get v different deal to cancer patients

    @esmesky: "Nothing has changed" the Prime Minister tells journalist 3 times "we haven't changed the principles of the manifesto #socialcare

    Has she even bolloxed the U-turn?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    Well, if you're going to do a U-turn, better to do it quickly, I guess.

    Quick? :smiley:
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176

    Jeremy Corbyn might just beat Tony Blair's winning 35.2% (UK-wide) vote share in 2005.

    I wonder if that will serve as a psychological and political landmark - tricky to depose him among his supporters if he does "better than Blair"...

    It would be slightly hilarious if Labour moderates still can't unseat him - because he actually becomes PM and starts implementing lunatic leftie policies. :-) Thoughts from Mrs Beckett then should that happen?

    Well I say hilarious - in a "we're all completely fucked over but still..." sort of way....
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    So can we now put an end to the ridiculous Theresa May is the new Thatcher meme.

    Because the Lady is for turning.

    If the Iron Lady had turned on the poll tax she might have kept her job
    Your greeting desperate now with your syophantic nonsense.You and others were telling us all! For the past few days how good this manifesto commitment was.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Alistair said:

    How do you think Labour are going to blow this cast iron PR opportunity?

    Well Corbyn's just described the IRA as 'brave', so theres that.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:


    Safe to be plundered by Labour's wealth tax and other taxes, you mean.

    Labour does not want you spending your own money on yourself because they want to grab it instead. This is the point which the Tories ought, if they had any sense, be ramming home.
    ...

    Still Corbyn is available for those who aren't grown ups.

    Corbyn is a shambles and Mrs May is beginning to look like a shambles, or at least a serial u-turner. Farron is a non-entity.

    It is sometimes said that we get the politicians we deserve... do we really deserve this lot?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So can we now put an end to the ridiculous Theresa May is the new Thatcher meme.

    Because the Lady is for turning.

    If the Iron Lady had turned on the poll tax she might have kept her job
    Not to mention when Maggie was at her best (79-87) she did regularly U-Turn...
    Yes, she only became so rigid and stubborn towards the end and as a former PM, when she won elections she would listen if she needed to
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,991

    And I think the Neil interview tonight could actually be more brutal than it might have been half an hour ago.

    In more reflective terms I remember us pb Tories getting all terribly excited on Bigotgate Day but it didn't result in a wipeout for Brown; it hardly had any traction at all with the voting public. This might blow over too.

    She's facing Jeremy Corbyn. She can't lose. But this is extraordinary weakness and shows a complete lack of preparation and attention to detail from the person who is supposed to secure a good Brexit deal. It's very worrying indeed.

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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Charles said:


    So he will lose his house but get some money? He has three siblings none of whom have any rights to the house (they all agreed that).

    I do not think he will be voting Tory

    Why does he believe that someone less fortunate than himself should pay for his mother's care?
    You are missing the point. People, in general, do not think in the abstract. They first of all think how something will affect them and those nearest and dearest to them. Very few think, "Well... it will be hell for me, but the country will benefit so that is OK"

    He has already given his job to help her and become a full time carer and his siblings are helping as they can so he is already paying for her care and she may still need to go to a home and if she does then all this sacrifice will have the added insult of making him homeless.

    Do you think that he is going to sign up for a policy like that? Regardless of what it does for the economy or public finances?
    What do you think the present policy is?

    I can tell you.

    If she needs to go in a home tomorrow, then the flat will be have to be sold to pay the care home bills.
    That is not the point. The election will not be won or lost on the current policy, it will be on the perception of the new policy because that is what is in the headlines.

    Sorry, my mistake. I thought we were talking about people, & what would happen to them rather than political point-scoring.

    Under the current system (which is likely to be in place for some years no matter who wins the election), if the mother needs residential care, then the flat is sold and care home fees are due until she owns less than 23k.

    Under May’s system, then the flat is sold and care home fees are due until she owns 100k.

    Under Corbyn’s system, I believe a National Care service will be established by the end of 5 years, and no money is payable, though there will be tax rises of an unspecified amount to pay for this.

    For the particular case you quoted, in which the mother only owns 51 per cent of the property, May’s proposals are probably the best of the bunch.

    If the mother owned 100 per cent of the house, then that might not be the case.

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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    Yorkcity said:

    Wow what a surprise not .All the PB Tories will now tell us they agree with Mays change of heart.You have a brain you can say something against the great leader.Nio wonder I m not a member of a political party because you have to parrot whatever your leader says .

    You might want to read posts from earlier today, and over the weekend, "PB Tories" were talking about a cap on maximum payments. So if they agree with May it's because she is now proposing to do what they suggested, not because they are blindly following the leader.

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    wills66wills66 Posts: 103



    At worst though this could at a stroke fatally undermine all the goodwill and strong ratings TM had built up. With labours shameless targeting of student votes on registration deadline day with their ridiculously unaffordable tuition fees bribe, I really do think we need to contemplate JC as PM as no longer beyond the realms of possibility.....

    She U-turned on having the election itself and her personal ratings survived that. I have no idea how many u-turns need to happen before it starts to fail.

    I've long thought that election campaigns have little impact on how people vote (a conclusion I came to after being so very convinced that Brown's Gillian Duffy moment would resoundingly reduce Labour's vote in the working class north, and being wrong) they are really just several weeks for people to find excuses to justify the voting decision that've already made.

    I have money on a sub-50 seat majority and have had for a long time.

    WillS.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048

    Well, if you're going to do a U-turn, better to do it quickly, I guess.

    Is this quick ?

    I suggested to pull the handbrake Thursday night - my internal spidey senses utterly tingled.
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    PendduPenddu Posts: 265

    Am I alone in finding the 'four nations' rhetoric slightly odd? The UK contains two nations, a principality, and a province.

    I wont comment on NI but Wales IS a nation - has not been a Principality since 1536.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited May 2017

    Jeremy Corbyn might just beat Tony Blair's winning 35.2% (UK-wide) vote share in 2005.

    I wonder if that will serve as a psychological and political landmark - tricky to depose him among his supporters if he does "better than Blair"...

    It would be slightly hilarious if Labour moderates still can't unseat him - because he actually becomes PM and starts implementing lunatic leftie policies. :-) Thoughts from Mrs Beckett then should that happen?

    Well I say hilarious - in a "we're all completely fucked over but still..." sort of way....
    If we do get some sort of minority Corbyn government... Chances are we'll have to have yet another bloody election in the Autumn or early next year.

    God help us all!!!!!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    May needs an answer today...

    @cerismith: So... Is this cap going to be the £85K rumoured pre manifesto, the £72K consulted on in 2015, or the £35k Dilnot proposed in 2011?
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    edited May 2017
    next up - labour klaxons on icm and in wales just to build the wobbly story yet further?....

    hoorar for my holiday soon and hope sanity returned by when i get back!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    Hopefully we'll get SeanT's calm analysis on this soon.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Well, if you're going to do a U-turn, better to do it quickly, I guess.

    Is this quick ?

    I suggested to pull the handbrake Thursday night - my internal spidey senses utterly tingled.
    If it had been done Thursday night it could have been more believable as a clarification too.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    If you think Mrs May is having a tricky day:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/866612157735108609
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,307
    edited May 2017
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    So can we now put an end to the ridiculous Theresa May is the new Thatcher meme.

    Because the Lady is for turning.

    If the Iron Lady had turned on the poll tax she might have kept her job
    Your greeting desperate now with your syophantic nonsense.You and others were telling us all! For the past few days how good this manifesto commitment was.
    For those in residential care it still is good, for those needing home personal care it needed amending
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    GIN1138 said:

    Brom said:

    So Osborn got it wrong again trying to stick the boot in and it was just a price cap. Either way it is sloppy stuff and should have been thought through before the manifesto was published.

    It should never have been in the manifesto...
    It's a good policy, it's a just policy and yet you have Labour defending a policy that only hurts the well off. We have a social care crisis and nothing will change if there are not brave ideas. Even the public were not that adverse to it so I have no idea why she even bothered capping it.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    Alistair said:

    How do you think Labour are going to blow this cast iron PR opportunity?

    Corbyn's called the IRA brave.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    What level is the Cap?

    How much will the U Turn cost?

    How will the gap be filled?

    "When I shot myself in the foot with a stupid policy that nasty man Mr Corbyn didnt throw himself at my feet to stop the bullet"

    FFS this is now the main issue for next few days at most.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Scott_P said:

    May needs an answer today...

    @cerismith: So... Is this cap going to be the £85K rumoured pre manifesto, the £72K consulted on in 2015, or the £35k Dilnot proposed in 2011?

    Suspect they are desperately trying to do the numbers. What a shambles!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,108
    Okay, I'm annoyed now. The policy is popular in the marginals, any suggestion of a cap on care costs is just pandering to the media outrage. I thought Theresa had the balls to go on this and stick to it.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Well, if you're going to do a U-turn, better to do it quickly, I guess.

    Is this quick ?

    I suggested to pull the handbrake Thursday night - my internal spidey senses utterly tingled.
    Not quick enough, certainly.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Scott_P said:

    May needs an answer today...

    @cerismith: So... Is this cap going to be the £85K rumoured pre manifesto, the £72K consulted on in 2015, or the £35k Dilnot proposed in 2011?

    Very true Scott.To be fair you are one who does not follow the leader come what may.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    That was truly weak and pathetic. It will surely have lost them more votes and failed to stem the wound. It's terrifying this woman and 'her team' are in charge.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, I'm annoyed now. The policy is popular in the marginals, any suggestion of a cap on care costs is just pandering to the media outrage. I thought Theresa had the balls to go on this and stick to it.

    Was it really? I thought the anecdotal evidence was equating it to a cup of cold sick?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    75% of OAPs own homes of average value £240k. 70% of us will need care. Therefore, 52% face losing their homes under Tory Dementia Tax plan.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255
    In a grim sort of way it would be amusing to see Corbyn as Prime Minister and the reaction of all those hyper-ventilating now when they see what Labour policies, Labour incompetence and Labour's lack of a moral compass mean for them.

    What a rubbish choice: a morally compromised Marxist idiot vs a hubristic and mediocre politician.

    Poor Britain.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339

    Alistair said:

    How do you think Labour are going to blow this cast iron PR opportunity?

    Corbyn's called the IRA brave.
    He is absolute filth.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760

    Alistair said:

    How do you think Labour are going to blow this cast iron PR opportunity?

    Corbyn's called the IRA brave.
    Ok not quite but near enough.

    https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/866607464061513728
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    I'm seriously considering spoiling my ballot on 8 June.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954

    Hopefully we'll get SeanT's calm analysis on this soon.

    Hopefully we'll get SeanT's calm analysis on this soon.

    Sean said she should U-Turn on Monday morning...

    He'll be pleased. ;)
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Yorkcity said:

    Scott_P said:

    May needs an answer today...

    @cerismith: So... Is this cap going to be the £85K rumoured pre manifesto, the £72K consulted on in 2015, or the £35k Dilnot proposed in 2011?

    Very true Scott.To be fair you are one who does not follow the leader come what may.
    If you've read this board over the past 4 days and detected "PB tories who follow the leader come what may" - could you identify one, with supporting quotes?
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    I am starting to think that Theresa May is a Corbynista plant. Not in his wildest dreams could Big Jezza have imagined how pisspoor a campaigner she would be.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    75% of OAPs own homes of average value £240k. 70% of us will need care. Therefore, 52% face losing their homes under Tory Dementia Tax plan.

    Assuming they have no other assets, and that they all need the same level of care?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876

    75% of OAPs own homes of average value £240k. 70% of us will need care. Therefore, 52% face losing their homes under Tory Dementia Tax plan.

    Links?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Scott_P said:

    @joncstone: Theresa May describes accurate descriptions of her social care policy as "Jeremy Corbyn’s fake claims"

    Such "hysterical warnings" will just undermine the rest of their anti-Corbyn campaign.
    The problem with this "fake claims" business is that she isn't like Trump either, who can without batting an eyelid describe night as day. Theresa May cannot pull that off.

    She will just look stupid. Unfortunately for her, she will also be compared with Trump.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, I'm annoyed now. The policy is popular in the marginals, any suggestion of a cap on care costs is just pandering to the media outrage. I thought Theresa had the balls to go on this and stick to it.

    I agree with you about the policy being better than what we have now.

    I suspect (from May’s point of view) a U-turn, or clarification, is right.

    The media need their pound of flesh.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    75% of OAPs own homes of average value £240k. 70% of us will need care. Therefore, 52% face losing their homes under Tory Dementia Tax plan.

    100% can stay in their homes until they die.

    100% can pass on £100k.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048

    Alistair said:

    How do you think Labour are going to blow this cast iron PR opportunity?

    Corbyn's called the IRA brave.
    Ok not quite but near enough.

    https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/866607464061513728
    Sorry but that isn't calling the IRA "brave", unless you're labelling the entire nationalist community in with the IRA. Now I know the Tories only got 34 votes in Belfast West, but still.
This discussion has been closed.