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The ORB Poll for S Telegraph which was carried out BEFORE CON manifesto launch Con 46Lab 34LD 7UKIP 7
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Comments
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Thirst.0
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Second like the Tories0
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Better than thought in reduction, if still 'low' compared to some others, but still convincing lead. Honestly I haven't seen that much coverage of this issue on the main news (eg BBC), so it'll need more pressing from Labour to see if they can force a bigger drop - this issue is their best chance to get Tories sub-10.0
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The LD share is shocking.0
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I've just voted.0
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Honestly I'd feel more comfortable with a bit large Tory lead, one so that Corbyn will get a result that he cannot defend and so will be forced out, and two, because I have high hopes of winning hundreds if the Hull seats go Blue, and I need a really big Tory majority for that.0
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As I replied to Sunil, I would really like to see Theresa May's approval ratings end of next week. As the Prime Minister, she will still be leading and that too because she is faced by Corbyn.
Ironically, they are both lucky to have each other as opponents.0 -
You do realise these are both pre-manifesto fieldwork?kle4 said:Better than thought in reduction, if still 'low' compared to some others, but still convincing lead. Honestly I haven't seen that much coverage of this issue on the main news (eg BBC), so it'll need more pressing from Labour to see if they can force a bigger drop - this issue is their best chance to get Tories sub-10.
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I did not - saw one said before, silly eyes filled in the other as after.Ishmael_Z said:
You do realise these are both pre-manifesto fieldwork?kle4 said:Better than thought in reduction, if still 'low' compared to some others, but still convincing lead. Honestly I haven't seen that much coverage of this issue on the main news (eg BBC), so it'll need more pressing from Labour to see if they can force a bigger drop - this issue is their best chance to get Tories sub-10.
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Hope OGH isn't trolling ahead of the next 2 polls ready to put "but ones taken after the manifesto show etc....... such fun.0
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Woo, the Saturday night polling thread!
First up, ORB: Oh no, only the same lead Blair got in 1997.0 -
Eight minutes to go (if the 9:30 prediction was accurate)!0
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That's why you love my threads with their sober analysis, free of trolling, and replete with awesome betting tips.Scrapheap_as_was said:Hope OGH isn't trolling ahead of the next 2 polls ready to put "but ones taken after the manifesto show etc....... such fun.
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My source tells me 9.30pm or shortly thereafter.RobD said:Eight minutes to go (if the 9:30 prediction was accurate)!
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There's going to an awful lot of disappointed Tories here if the polls haven't narrowed. No, that's not a deliberate mistake - I actually believe it.0
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I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.0
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He's set it up too obviously ....TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why you love my threads with their sober analysis, free of trolling, and replete with awesome betting tips.Scrapheap_as_was said:Hope OGH isn't trolling ahead of the next 2 polls ready to put "but ones taken after the manifesto show etc....... such fun.
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Yes, no regular PB thread writer has mastered my ability to be subtle.Scrapheap_as_was said:
He's set it up too obviously ....TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why you love my threads with their sober analysis, free of trolling, and replete with awesome betting tips.Scrapheap_as_was said:Hope OGH isn't trolling ahead of the next 2 polls ready to put "but ones taken after the manifesto show etc....... such fun.
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The suspense in here over the incoming polls.
It's going to be a damb squib0 -
kle4 said:
Honestly I'd feel more comfortable with a bit large Tory lead, one so that Corbyn will get a result that he cannot defend and so will be forced out, and two, because I have high hopes of winning hundreds if the Hull seats go Blue, and I need a really big Tory majority for that.
The Labour voters who vote Labour despite their hatred of Corbyn will be like the Labour MPs who put him on the ballot in the 1st place...
Regretting their decision when Corbyn remains and annihilates what's left of the party.
Sane Labour members ironically need Labour to be monstered in this election. They need a Tory landslide. But can sit on their hands and accept it?
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I think you're right - we were briefed before the budget many on the right would not like it, and I think some will be annoyed if the lead did not take a small hit as a result. That the social care stuff has stirred up the opposition as well, for all they have only a vague aim to counter it with, makes that even more likely, helpfully.Jason said:There's going to an awful lot of disappointed Tories here if the polls haven't narrowed. No, that's not a deliberate mistake - I actually believe it.
If it should gods forbid show an increase in the lead - despite angry pensioners, disappointed right wingers, and wavering new Tories leaving in disgust - then add it to the list of things about the electorate and polling i know longer understand.0 -
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.0 -
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
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Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.0
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Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
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To add that the current threshold is £23k, and most councils will have you sell your home while you're alive to pay the care bills.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.0 -
It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
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Don''t remind me.Scrapheap_as_was said:
It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
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I am a big fan of Erdington conservatism so far.Sandpit said:Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.
Not only is it grown up, sensible and about self sufficiency, it's strategically brilliant as it allows for a decent majority to be secured.0 -
You support the dippers, kle?kle4 said:
Don''t remind me.Scrapheap_as_was said:
It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
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They don't realise yet that Twitter isn't a ground game.Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
Remember that poor student and his his ten bags of sand on JC the Messiah from earlier in the week?0 -
Alas, yes.Jason said:
You support the dippers, kle?kle4 said:
Don''t remind me.Scrapheap_as_was said:
It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
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To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.Scrapheap_as_was said:
It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.0 -
Yep - although the council in our case gave us time to sort out power of attorney so we could actually do that.Sandpit said:
To add that the current threshold is £23k, and most councils will have you sell your home while you're alive to pay the care bills.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
In a strange twist of fate she died the day before the power of attorney actually arrived in post.
Then straight on to probate.0 -
Unless they happen to be unlucky enough to live in the south.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.0 -
tick tock....0
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You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?0 -
As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.
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Unfortunately whenever I heard a statement like that now I just think of Cat Smith and the 'achievement' of losing Copeland.TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.Scrapheap_as_was said:
It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
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Labour Liverpool.....Scrapheap_as_was said:
It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
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Yep. There are some things May is proposing that I am not happy with at all. But this is one policy I think is very sensible indeed even though personally I am one of those who will probably lose out from it.Mortimer said:
I am a big fan of Erdington conservatism so far.Sandpit said:Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.
Not only is it grown up, sensible and about self sufficiency, it's strategically brilliant as it allows for a decent majority to be secured.0 -
If you can't beat Boro at home, you don't deserve the top four. You'll beat them, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.Scrapheap_as_was said:
It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.0 -
We've got a top 4, nay a title winning first XI, but we've not got the squad depth.kle4 said:
Unfortunately whenever I heard a statement like that now I just think of Cat Smith and the 'achievement' of losing Copeland.TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.Scrapheap_as_was said:
It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
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Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.kyf_100 said:
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
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First ..... again!0
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PB football thread is going to be great fun tomorrow afternoon, taking two hours away from politics.The_Apocalypse said:
As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.
I'm a Liverpool fan, so will probably be behind the sofa for most of it!0 -
Should the rich be pleased Jeremy cares about passing on their wealth?nunu said:
Unless they happen to be unlucky enough to live in the south.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
Strange because Jezza and his trots want to soak the rich0 -
same bloody effect.Floater said:
Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.kyf_100 said:
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?0 -
Steady on. You've had a decent season finishing in the top four - but a title winning first XI? No, I don't think so.TheScreamingEagles said:
We've got a top 4, nay a title winning first XI, but we've not got the squad depth.kle4 said:
Unfortunately whenever I heard a statement like that now I just think of Cat Smith and the 'achievement' of losing Copeland.TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.Scrapheap_as_was said:
It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
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Ironically, the Tories will be against the perception thing.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
I remember in 1983 Labour in their manifesto had higher rates for high earners. It was not £80k but around the level where HRT started, when one woman said this worried her. Another woman told her that her husband did not earn anywhere near that figure, so why was she worried.
She replied, "but, he could".
The same woman today probably would say we worked for it all our lives and now they are going to take it away. Right or wrong, it is highly emotive.
If I were a Labour canvasser, I would gently drop in the word "theft" and move to the next door.
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https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/865996363414339584
Interesting, and consistent with the Lib Dems' crap position in the polls. And Bath a key LD target, too.
It would be wrong to change ones' view of the situation based on one person's opinion, but this guy seems to talk sense. Perhaps I am wrong and the Yellow team really are doing as badly in the country as the polls suggest?0 -
What is the Labour policy on paying for Social Care?0
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Ah the Diane Abbott school of mathematics I see :-)peter_from_putney said:First ..... again!
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We Liverpool fans seem as over-represented here as LDs.Sandpit said:
PB football thread is going to be great fun tomorrow afternoon, taking two hours away from politics.The_Apocalypse said:
As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.
I'm a Liverpool fan, so will probably be behind the sofa for most of it!0 -
its a strange tax that effectively would give my wife a bigger inheritance......nunu said:
same bloody effect.Floater said:
Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.kyf_100 said:
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
So, no0 -
I think you guys will get Top 4, I can't see you not beating Middlesborough.Sandpit said:
PB football thread is going to be great fun tomorrow afternoon, taking two hours away from politics.The_Apocalypse said:
As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.
I'm a Liverpool fan, so will probably be behind the sofa for most of it!0 -
To be confirmed.alex. said:What is the Labour policy on paying for Social Care?
In its first years, our service will require an additional £3 billion of public funds every year, enough to place a maximum limit on lifetime personal contributions to care costs, raise the asset threshold below which people are entitled to state support, and provide free end of life care. There are different ways the necessary monies can be raised. We will seek consensus on a cross-party basis about how it should be funded, with options including wealth taxes, an employer care contribution or a new social care levy0 -
You are pleased that you have a £450,000 to support you in your old age, and that you'll have plenty to pass on to your children.kyf_100 said:
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?0 -
What would you prefer to call it? A death duty? A charge on any poor sod unlucky enough to lose their marbles? A mugging of grannies who've worked hard and saved all their lives? An assault on the small c conservative lower middle classes?Floater said:
Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.kyf_100 said:
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
Answers on the back of a postcard, please.0 -
You're very happy that if the worst happens, your kids will still inherit £100k rather than £23k, and over the moon that you no longer have to inflict on your descendants the shit of disposing of your home and possessions while you're still alive.kyf_100 said:
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?0 -
There is no threshold currently for Social Care at home which is what 80% of Social Care claimants receive.Sandpit said:
To add that the current threshold is £23k, and most councils will have you sell your home while you're alive to pay the care bills.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
The house doesnt count as an Asset0 -
I thought Liverpool had a chance earlier in the season. Their squad is a bit thin, but I tend to agree that they're not quite as good as everyone thought. Next season will be a big test for Klopp, finishing in the Top Four should not be considered success for a club like Liverpool.Jason said:
Steady on. You've had a decent season finishing in the top four - but a title winning first XI? No, I don't think so.TheScreamingEagles said:
We've got a top 4, nay a title winning first XI, but we've not got the squad depth.kle4 said:
Unfortunately whenever I heard a statement like that now I just think of Cat Smith and the 'achievement' of losing Copeland.TheScreamingEagles said:
To be fair the injuries we've had, getting fourth would be a real achievement.Scrapheap_as_was said:
It's Liverpool making a horlicks of getting 4th isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is a bit Spursy?Scrapheap_as_was said:
One of many....... just wait for the red team boasting about their superior ground game.... there's thousands of emJason said:
Lol, yes, I agree. Forever known as The Saturday of Hysteria. Or The Of Saturday Hysteria - TOSH.bobajobPB said:I fear for the mental health of our PB Tory friends. Any decent human would want a decent Tory score in YouGov, if only to spare the nation's mattress supply.
0 -
I bought a bar of chocolate this morning and had to pay every bloody penny of the price out of my own pocket. Bloody Chocolate Tax.nunu said:
same bloody effect.Floater said:
Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.kyf_100 said:
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?0 -
Labour voters who hate Jeremy Corbyn, but are voting Labour because he can't win will just be increasing the likelihood that they will be giving themselves a future choice in an election between Corbyn and the Conservatives (only then in a position where he might actually win).0
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Oh absolutely. Anything that gets the idea that the race is narrowing into the news is to the advantage of the Conservatives.SeanT said:As an aside, I did theorize a few days ago that what the Tories need is a faintly terrifying poll, showing Labour within striking distance, so everyone gets the collywobbles, and decides to
opt for Theresa, Despite Everything, for Fear of Jeremy.
People like my lefty journalist friend, who has gone back to Labour coz he thinks Jez can't possibly win. And wants to halt a Tory landslide.
If he thought Jez *could* win, he would abstain, or even vote Tory.0 -
Chances are it doesn't play out for me at all because there is a 5 in 6 chance that I won't need long term care (according to Mr. Meeks' figures in this morning's thread).kyf_100 said:
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?0 -
Emily Thornberry at Gower today. Labour throwing the kitchen sink at it. I did say a few days ago to watch that one for a shock. I got on at 6/1 Labour.0
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Ditto. In fact I'd possibly lose out twice - but my parents (neither of which went to uni and one of which grew up on one of the poorest council estates in Wales) have been lucky enough to experience massive house price inflation and I've been lucky enough to start and grow a successful business. I don't expect to get an easy ride; rainy days are what rainy day money is for.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. There are some things May is proposing that I am not happy with at all. But this is one policy I think is very sensible indeed even though personally I am one of those who will probably lose out from it.Mortimer said:
I am a big fan of Erdington conservatism so far.Sandpit said:Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.
Not only is it grown up, sensible and about self sufficiency, it's strategically brilliant as it allows for a decent majority to be secured.0 -
We are guaranteed an Europa Cup spot unless we win the .... Europa Cup.The_Apocalypse said:
As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.0 -
I have some experience of Liverpool fans, as my old neighbour was one of them. He was more delusional than any politico I have ever met in my life. I often wondered what happened to him. He's probably in a straight jacket in a lunatic asylum, gibbering 'it...could...be...our...year...'kle4 said:
We Liverpool fans seem as over-represented here as LDs.Sandpit said:
PB football thread is going to be great fun tomorrow afternoon, taking two hours away from politics.The_Apocalypse said:
As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.
I'm a Liverpool fan, so will probably be behind the sofa for most of it!0 -
Out of interest, how much does social care at home cost on an annual basis?bigjohnowls said:
There is no threshold currently for Social Care at home which is what 80% of Social Care claimants receive.Sandpit said:
To add that the current threshold is £23k, and most councils will have you sell your home while you're alive to pay the care bills.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
The house doesnt count as an Asset0 -
Um, I like Merseyrail and its Southern Railway-style 3rd rail electrification (and not too dissimilar to the Tube's 4th rail).kle4 said:
We Liverpool fans seem as over-represented here as LDs.Sandpit said:
PB football thread is going to be great fun tomorrow afternoon, taking two hours away from politics.The_Apocalypse said:
As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.
I'm a Liverpool fan, so will probably be behind the sofa for most of it!0 -
It is to create a National Care Service, for which 3 billion pounds is allocated from sources to be identified.alex. said:What is the Labour policy on paying for Social Care?
There are 300,000 elderly in care homes at the moment. Average care homes fees per year are 30k. Paying just for those in care homes (and so not home care) will cost 9 billion pounds.
(I am quite interested in a National Care Service, but Labour don't seem to have put much thought into how much it would cost, and where the money would come from).
0 -
Oh absolutely. But your typical voter's level of political analysis is not that deep.alex. said:Labour voters who hate Jeremy Corbyn, but are voting Labour because he can't win will just be increasing the likelihood that they will be giving themselves a future choice in an election between Corbyn and the Conservatives (only then in a position where he might actually win).
It's like chess, I suppose. Almost anyone can understand the basics, but few players are much good at (or even bother) thinking more than one or two moves ahead.0 -
There is a difference between liking something and caring enough about something that you change your vote on the back of a reaction one way or another to something.Sandpit said:Remember that the working class Midlands focus group actually liked the care policy.
An example is rail nationalisation. A lot of people want it, but typically transport only scores 3% or so when people are asked to name their top three issues.
It's pensioners who are the people who are really going to care enough to change their vote if the perception sticks that the Conservatives are really having a go at pensioners. Probably also those approaching the ever receding state pension age (eg. in the case of WASPI women)
0 -
Opinion polls.... must have opinion polls...0
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Currently 41% of people with dementia (or their families) pay their care home costs in full. That is around £30,000 a year on average. In almost all cases it is necessary to sell the person's home to pay for it.kyf_100 said:
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?
0 -
As I put it on the last thread:kle4 said:
To be confirmed.alex. said:What is the Labour policy on paying for Social Care?
In its first years, our service will require an additional £3 billion of public funds every year, enough to place a maximum limit on lifetime personal contributions to care costs, raise the asset threshold below which people are entitled to state support, and provide free end of life care. There are different ways the necessary monies can be raised. We will seek consensus on a cross-party basis about how it should be funded, with options including wealth taxes, an employer care contribution or a new social care levy
But in their own manifesto, they said (to paraphrase):
1. Let's kick the can a little more.
2. Let's be adults about this difficult subject.
Now what we see is:
1. Let's just have the State pay for it.
2. #DEMENTIATAX OMG EEVIL BABYEATERS!!!!!!
The reality is that:
1. This will cost roughly 5p on income tax across all rates - they're not saying anything about this, just trying to add it to the other £60 something billion in uncosted expentidure in the Labour manifesto.
2. What happened to being adults about this difficult subject?
The Tory proposal might not be perfect, but let's all engage with the discussion to look at how it might be improved, rather than the screaming hysteria we've seen from certain quarters so far.0 -
The Magic Money Tree. Where else does Labour's money come from?YBarddCwsc said:
It is to create a National Care Service, for which 3 billion pounds is allocated from sources to be identified.alex. said:What is the Labour policy on paying for Social Care?
There are 300,000 elderly in care homes at the moment. Average care homes fees per year are 30k. Paying just for those in care homes (and so not home care) will cost 9 billion pounds.
(I am quite interested in a National Care Service, but Labour don't seem to have put much thought into how much it would cost, and where the money would come from).0 -
You're a United fan aren't you? I think you guys will beat Ajax as well.surbiton said:
We are guaranteed an Europa Cup spot unless we win the .... Europa Cup.The_Apocalypse said:
As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.
Sadly, I think Wenger is going to be leaving us on a low, which isn't what I wanted for him. Chelsea are definitely winning the FA Cup.0 -
Single digit lead Klaxon! 44/350
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Uff, that is a big change in a week.0
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@ShippersUnbound: YouGov poll for Sunday Times is significant because the fieldwork is all after the Tory manifesto came out. The care policy is unpopular0
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Cue the hysteria.............0
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44% still higher than Thatcher ever got, just Labour up tooTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Dirty, nasty, sleazy, panic-stricken Tories on the slide !TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
YouGov poll with changes since the midweek poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 35 (+3) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 3 (-3)0 -
Boom, called it 4 weeks ago.Scott_P said:
Still a bit strange to me - if you were tempted by May before, going Corbyn now even if you dislike this latest policy set seems odd.0 -
How many people do you reckon go to the shops and buy dementia?Ishmael_Z said:
I bought a bar of chocolate this morning and had to pay every bloody penny of the price out of my own pocket. Bloody Chocolate Tax.nunu said:
same bloody effect.Floater said:
Well, if they went to uni they should know its not a tax.kyf_100 said:
You are a working class woman in a marginal northern constituency. You were born on a council estate, but were the first person in your family to go to uni. You bought your first house - a little two up two down - in 1983 which, incidentally, was the first time you voted Tory. You worked hard in the 80s and 90s and moved up the property ladder.chrisb said:
Firstly because it's not whittled away to nothing, there's a £100k threshold, and secondly if they are that humble, the excess value of their home over that threshold is not likely to be that great.kyf_100 said:
why should people from humbler backgrounds, whose only asset is likely to be their home, see it whittled away to nothing while their more feckless peers get given care for free?Charles said:
Why should my parents be subsidised by people on average incomes?bigjohnowls said:
I agree with the removal of the Triple Locksurbiton said:
I could be persuaded that WFA is too generous.
To limit the latter to only 10% of Pensioners in receipt of pension credit guaranteed is a bit harsh though.
The Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher policy is just WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You are now approaching retirement and apart from your pension pot, your main asset is your home, which you love and cherish and you raised your two children in it. You hope to pass it on to them. It is worth 450,000. Your sister in law's uncle was diagnosed with dementia a few years ago so you have personal experience of how horrific dementia is.
How does the Dementia Tax play out for you?0 -
LO fecking L!!!SeanT said:I was right. Jesus fucking Christ
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/8660313010313420810 -
OUTLIER KLAXON0
-
Like Oscar Wilde, I am often quote myself, it adds splice to my conversation
From a few days ago
"I predict that at some point during the campaign, there'll be a poll - even 2 polls in succession - that appears temporarily to turn the picture upside down. And there will be joy on the left and gloom on the right. Then normality will reassert itself. "0 -
Let's not overreact to one poll. Let's see whether this is the start of a trend. I'm personally hoping that a trend of bad polls will have them re-thinking this policy.0
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I must say, I am shocked to find out that someone from Surbiton turned out to be a Man U fan.surbiton said:
We are guaranteed an Europa Cup spot unless we win the .... Europa Cup.The_Apocalypse said:
As an Arsenal fan, I feel the same way.TheScreamingEagles said:
I fully expect to be in the Europa league at 5pm tomorrow.
I have the same feeling in my waters that I did when we played Chelsea in April 2014.0
This discussion has been closed.