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Comments
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Well quite, - probably the soundest voice we’ll hear on today’s events.peter_from_putney said:Sporting, the precious darlings, have resumed coverage of their GE markets, with their spread prices unchanged from before.
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Anyone but Lionel Blair's Nephew Charlie?TOPPING said:
Plenty of disgruntled over my dead body Lab voters where I have canvassed who look set to head over to the LDs more as a ABLBNC vote than any other reason.IanB2 said:
You may well be right - indeed the Inner/Outer point is one I made yesterday. In which case the pro-LD swing in Inner London must be dramatic (which supports various anecdotal reports from PB'ers and their acquaintances) and good news for Simon Hughes at least.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that's a safe assumption. Inner city London is exactly where I'd expect to see the Lib Dems increasing their vote share. There are a lot of very disgruntled Remain voters in these parts. Moderate and temperate voters like me often get their ears bent by them.IanB2 said:
It suggests SW London is more positive for the LDs than most of the PB pundits have been predicting.AlastairMeeks said:Just a 2% Labour to Conservative swing in a 60:40 Remain stronghold.
My rough and ready model of differential swing from the other day might not be too bad.
Edit: Cons remainers, meanwhile, look likely to head over to LDs also as NCBCVLs.
November cricket brings cold vegetarian lunches?0 -
It's entirely possible it had no bearing on the decision, but influenced the precise timing, even if May believed that the risk of charges being brought was extremely slim.RobD said:
If she didn't know in advance how it would pan out, and it did have bearing, why did she call for the election to be held *after* the deadline?Theuniondivvie said:
'Tessy definitely didn't know in advance how the investigation into electoral fraud would pan out, but that definitely had no bearing on her calling a snap election. Definitely.'RobD said:
I still don't buy that. Why would she call the election for after the deadline if she was worried about convictions? Surely she would have called it for May 4th.Theuniondivvie said:
Yeah, therefore it's quite possible that Tessy in her 'ignorance' factored in possible prosecutions in her GE decision.RobD said:
Why would the CPS tell her of a decision three to four weeks before announcing it?DecrepitJohnL said:
Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?CarlottaVance said:
Cake, be warned, you will be possessed and consumed.0 -
Well you've got bigger balls than I have!TheScreamingEagles said:
If push came to shove, yes.Sandpit said:
You'd sell at 43?TheScreamingEagles said:
Should have listened to me.Sandpit said:
That is rather annoying, I was kinda hoping it would drop ten seats this morning! There's a lot of potential downside buying at 401.peter_from_putney said:Sporting, the precious darlings, have resumed coverage of their GE markets, with their spread prices unchanged from before.
My tip of the day. Sell the SNP.
There's not much potential downside to that bet.0 -
Almost a funny from Farron ....Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
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Kate Hoey is THE inner city London bet imo.0
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Happily all those responsible for the 2015 election, Cameron, Osborne and the Chumocracy have been given the sack so we can all breath a sigh of relief!JackW said:The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.
If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.
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He should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?JackW said:
Almost a funny from Farron ....Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
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Sir Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina say hello.GIN1138 said:
Happily all those responsible for the 2015 election Cameron, Osborne and the Chumocracy have been given the sack so we can all breath a sigh of relief!JackW said:The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.
If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.0 -
Given the relatively small sums involved, shouldn't that be 'millionaires' ?CarlottaVance said:Paul Mason @paulmasonnews
CPS confirms: UK electoral law unenforcable. While labour movement accounts for every penny, billionaires can buy any election they want
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In one!Anorak said:
Anyone but Lionel Blair's Nephew Charlie?TOPPING said:
Plenty of disgruntled over my dead body Lab voters where I have canvassed who look set to head over to the LDs more as a ABLBNC vote than any other reason.IanB2 said:
You may well be right - indeed the Inner/Outer point is one I made yesterday. In which case the pro-LD swing in Inner London must be dramatic (which supports various anecdotal reports from PB'ers and their acquaintances) and good news for Simon Hughes at least.AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think that's a safe assumption. Inner city London is exactly where I'd expect to see the Lib Dems increasing their vote share. There are a lot of very disgruntled Remain voters in these parts. Moderate and temperate voters like me often get their ears bent by them.IanB2 said:
It suggests SW London is more positive for the LDs than most of the PB pundits have been predicting.AlastairMeeks said:Just a 2% Labour to Conservative swing in a 60:40 Remain stronghold.
My rough and ready model of differential swing from the other day might not be too bad.
Edit: Cons remainers, meanwhile, look likely to head over to LDs also as NCBCVLs.
November cricket brings cold vegetarian lunches?0 -
Eric Pickles: n Dec, LibDems were fined £20k for not declaring 307 items of spending; LibDems referred to Met Police for a criminal investigation.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
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This is interesting, and potentially important. The biggest voting gap the Tories have has historically been young women. If May is attracting them over then the polling for Tories will certainly move in her favour going forwards.saddo said:This is a genuine thing. Mayllennial's. Milifandom was just a joke. The Marx brothers at the top of Labour are just a joke. But May is resonating in the most astounding ways
https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/the-maylennials-are-young-women-who-love-theresa-may-and?utm_term=.fb7j7y3w8B#.ax09dwzegM
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Betting Post
Must say, for what it's worth, I agree with Mr. Sandpit. Were I a spread bettor, I would not sell the SNP at 43.
Speaking of such things, here's a repost of stuff from yesterday.
F1: to commemorate the excellent and wonderful Verstappen tip last year, I've put a very, very small amount on Perez at 41 and Hulkenberg at 126 respectively to get on the podium. These are slightly silly bets, but do have a modicum of reasoning, besides the anniversary of arguably the greatest fluke tip in the site's history.
Spain is very hard to pass on, and Hulkenberg's been qualifying strongly (I think he started 6th last time). If there's trouble ahead, he could stand to benefit ahead of many others. Perez, if tyre degradation is excessive, is very good at managing them and drives well on tight circuits.
A slightly more serious bet to consider is Raikkonen each way at 13 for the win. He drove very well last time (had the pace for pole but screwed it up) and last year was better than Vettel in every session of Spain.0 -
So, if you don't want to look a hypocrite you'll be paying back that £2.4m from Michael Brown then eh Tim? If you want to claim that spirit of the law moral high-ground.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
The Liberal Democrats. Smug, hypocritical bastards since....forever.
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felix said:
Eric Pickles: n Dec, LibDems were fined £20k for not declaring 307 items of spending; LibDems referred to Met Police for a criminal investigation.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
Paging Mark Pack.0 -
Yep, all parties have been fined by the EC for their sloppy accounting. The Commission needs to clarify the rules urgently to avoid the same mistakes again. It would be sensible to have EC lawyers on a duty rota to handle and clarify enquiries from parties during the campaign, rather than end up with the police and CPS dealing with it two years later.Scott_P said:
@EricPickles: In Dec, LibDems were fined £20k for not declaring 307 items of spending; LibDems referred to Met Police for a criminal investigation.RobD said:Haven't other parties too?
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I do hope that this case at least makes people file their expenses properly. If nothing else, that will deaden the false hopes of people who can't possibly hope to win elections without the other side being disqualified.0
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I've said it before, we should abolish constituency spending limits.
All the parties should be given a national spending limit, and it is up to them where they spend it.0 -
Yeh, 4% max.Pulpstar said:Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)
No chance.0 -
The correct approach for the Tories to take, Bill Wragg at 11:52
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/10/general-election-2017-tory-mps-expenses-one-show-politics-live
and the wrong approach, Karl McCartney at 11:43. He should keep his mouth shut.0 -
Candidate deadlines tommorow, we might be able to discern more or less the UKIP max from that alone.logical_song said:
Yeh, 4% max.Pulpstar said:Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)
No chance.0 -
Sounds about right.JackW said:The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.
If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.
In Russia Crick would be found dead in a ditch or enjoying a pot of polonium tea. In the UK we should celebrate robust journalistic investigations.
Conservatives nicked a draw in injury time. Hardly a Champion League Final win.
And the same defence would not be entirely credible if they pull the same trick again this time around. Electoral law is probably a little more enforceable than Paul Mason believes.0 -
It certainly is.TheScreamingEagles said:
He should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?JackW said:
Almost a funny from Farron ....Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
Shocking graphics.0 -
They are just on the payroll... They aren't dishing out money etc.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina say hello.GIN1138 said:
Happily all those responsible for the 2015 election Cameron, Osborne and the Chumocracy have been given the sack so we can all breath a sigh of relief!JackW said:The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.
If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.0 -
Not all Tories are graceless twats.JackW said:The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.
If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.
In Russia Crick would be found dead in a ditch or enjoying a pot of polonium tea. In the UK we should celebrate robust journalistic investigations.
Conservatives nicked a draw in injury time. Hardly a Champion League Final win.
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/862253933850439680
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Indeed. Be magnanimous in victoryRichard_Nabavi said:The correct approach for the Tories to take, Bill Wragg at 11:52
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/10/general-election-2017-tory-mps-expenses-one-show-politics-live
and the wrong approach, Karl McCartney at 11:43. He should keep his mouth shut.0 -
How many constituencies in London are UKIP going to be standing in?logical_song said:
Yeh, 4% max.Pulpstar said:Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)
No chance.
And who are would-be UKIP voters going to vote for when they turn up to the polling booth to find themselves thwarted in that aspiration?0 -
You would think so, but it's quite an old population, isn't it? And it was blue until 1997.Gallowgate said:Just can't really imagine Tynemouth going blue.
I guess the big question is where do UKIP voters in a constituency like that go - do they head over to the Tories or would they rather just stay at home?
I don't fancy it at evens at all. But there could be a few shocks like this on the night...0 -
Mr. Eagles, an interesting side-effect of such a move, which may help the law both be enforced and clear, would be to make it easier for smaller parties to break through, as they could focus national level resources in a small number of seats.0
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Advice for June 8th?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Be magnanimous in victoryRichard_Nabavi said:The correct approach for the Tories to take, Bill Wragg at 11:52
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/10/general-election-2017-tory-mps-expenses-one-show-politics-live
and the wrong approach, Karl McCartney at 11:43. He should keep his mouth shut.
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I could live with that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, an interesting side-effect of such a move, which may help the law both be enforced and clear, would be to make it easier for smaller parties to break through, as they could focus national level resources in a small number of seats.
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Although independents would be buggered, unless national spend doesn't take into account the number of seats you stand in (which would be very advantageous to the SNP)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, an interesting side-effect of such a move, which may help the law both be enforced and clear, would be to make it easier for smaller parties to break through, as they could focus national level resources in a small number of seats.
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Yup, there's only one thing worse than a sore loser, a sore winner.RobD said:
Advice for June 8th?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Be magnanimous in victoryRichard_Nabavi said:The correct approach for the Tories to take, Bill Wragg at 11:52
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/10/general-election-2017-tory-mps-expenses-one-show-politics-live
and the wrong approach, Karl McCartney at 11:43. He should keep his mouth shut.0 -
General Election 2015: VauxhallAlastairMeeks said:
How many constituencies in London are UKIP going to be standing in?logical_song said:
Yeh, 4% max.Pulpstar said:Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)
No chance.
And who are would-be UKIP voters going to vote for when they turn up to the polling booth to find themselves thwarted in that aspiration?
UKIP Ace Nnorom 1,385 2.9
LOL0 -
I'd pity the poor souls living in marginals, were that to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:I've said it before, we should abolish constituency spending limits.
All the parties should be given a national spending limit, and it is up to them where they spend it.0 -
Panelbase doesn't show much movement in response to May's jingoism on the steps of Downing Street.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/8622614131501711360 -
You strangely forgot about Asil Nadir.MarqueeMark said:
So, if you don't want to look a hypocrite you'll be paying back that £2.4m from Michael Brown then eh Tim? If you want to claim that spirit of the law moral high-ground.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
The Liberal Democrats. Smug, hypocritical bastards since....forever.
Conservatives. Smug, hypercritical bastards since.... forever .... eating babies too0 -
It is a sign of a healthy democracy that the DPP knew that if she had brought charges in the expenses saga, Theresa May couldn't do a James Comey on her.
Be grateful we live in such a country.0 -
No difference in your stance either.williamglenn said:Panelbase doesn't show much movement in response to May's jingoism on the steps of Downing Street.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/8622614131501711360 -
Hard not to be smug when you are enjoying a meal as delicious as thatJackW said:
You strangely forgot about Asil Nadir.MarqueeMark said:
So, if you don't want to look a hypocrite you'll be paying back that £2.4m from Michael Brown then eh Tim? If you want to claim that spirit of the law moral high-ground.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
The Liberal Democrats. Smug, hypocritical bastards since....forever.
Conservatives. Smug, hypercritical bastards since.... forever .... eating babies too 0 -
We know of several seats where UKIP aren't standing, but I guess by tomorrow we'll know how many deposits they've managed to raise. I think it could be in the double figures, in which case around 3/4 of their current poll support could still go elsewhere when the voters realise there isn't a ukip candidate to vote for.Pulpstar said:
Candidate deadlines tommorow, we might be able to discern more or less the UKIP max from that alone.logical_song said:
Yeh, 4% max.Pulpstar said:Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)
No chance.0 -
NEW THREAD
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Not being up before the beak is hardly a "victory".TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. Be magnanimous in victoryRichard_Nabavi said:The correct approach for the Tories to take, Bill Wragg at 11:52
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/10/general-election-2017-tory-mps-expenses-one-show-politics-live
and the wrong approach, Karl McCartney at 11:43. He should keep his mouth shut.0 -
Let them eat cake They can always move.Anorak said:
I'd pity the poor souls living in marginals, were that to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:I've said it before, we should abolish constituency spending limits.
All the parties should be given a national spending limit, and it is up to them where they spend it.0 -
Mr. D, hmm, probably. Depends how deep their pockets are.
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Thinking Brexit is wrong and thinking Junckers is a self-important dickhead needing a slapping down are not exclusive positions.williamglenn said:Panelbase doesn't show much movement in response to May's jingoism on the steps of Downing Street.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/8622614131501711360 -
CPS: Enemies of the People.felix said:
Indeed its like the article 50 case all over againRichard_Nabavi said:The bright side of this sorry saga is seeing so many 'progressives' who claim to be liberal, and sticklers for the application of the law, throwing their toys out of the pram because the law has been correctly applied.
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I have a small amount on Raikkonen at 22 to take pole...I'm not quite sure why Mercedes should still be favourites in Spain. Hope being placed in the upgrade of gearbox, etc ?Morris_Dancer said:Betting Post
Must say, for what it's worth, I agree with Mr. Sandpit. Were I a spread bettor, I would not sell the SNP at 43.
Speaking of such things, here's a repost of stuff from yesterday.
F1: to commemorate the excellent and wonderful Verstappen tip last year, I've put a very, very small amount on Perez at 41 and Hulkenberg at 126 respectively to get on the podium. These are slightly silly bets, but do have a modicum of reasoning, besides the anniversary of arguably the greatest fluke tip in the site's history.
Spain is very hard to pass on, and Hulkenberg's been qualifying strongly (I think he started 6th last time). If there's trouble ahead, he could stand to benefit ahead of many others. Perez, if tyre degradation is excessive, is very good at managing them and drives well on tight circuits.
A slightly more serious bet to consider is Raikkonen each way at 13 for the win. He drove very well last time (had the pace for pole but screwed it up) and last year was better than Vettel in every session of Spain.0 -
Probably relates to certain witness statements now being more forthcoming.FrancisUrquhart said:Huh...the open file has only just been received from Kent Police? I thought Thanet was one of the first out of the blocks?
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Certainly - it should be a battle-TRAIN!TheScreamingEagles said:
He should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?JackW said:
Almost a funny from Farron ....Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
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Newly elected SNP councillor charged in betting scandal.
http://www.scotsman.com/regions/dumfries-borders/annan-chairman-and-new-snp-councillor-faces-football-bet-charge-1-44413820 -
Good job there are no rules like that on politics and betting... I think...TheScreamingEagles said:Newly elected SNP councillor charged in betting scandal.
http://www.scotsman.com/regions/dumfries-borders/annan-chairman-and-new-snp-councillor-faces-football-bet-charge-1-44413820 -
Update from Labour's most marginal seat in London: Ealing Central & Acton. Rupa Huq's latest election missive is almost solely aimed at potential Lab-LD switchers, which suggests to me the canvassing returns are showing that this is her main problem. St. Vince has, of course, given her his blessing and to be fair the LD candidate is an uninspiring retread who was prosecuted last year for failing to pay his council tax. That along with today's polling has made me reassess her chances from 0% to around 15%. Still looks like a clear Tory gain, though.0
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See my post on the other threadThomasNashe said:Update from Labour's most marginal seat in London: Ealing Central & Acton. Rupa Huq's latest election missive is almost solely aimed at potential Lab-LD switchers, which suggests to me the canvassing returns are showing that this is her main problem. St. Vince has, of course, given her his blessing and to be fair the LD candidate is an uninspiring retread who was prosecuted last year for failing to pay his council tax. That along with today's polling has made me reassess her chances from 0% to around 15%. Still looks like a clear Tory gain, though.
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