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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At 11am the Crown Prosecution Service announces what it is doi

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Looks like it was more #FakeNews from Channel 4 then?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Scott_P said:

    Jason said:

    Who has the biggest downer today - Smithson or Crick?

    Who sold Tory seats on the spreads on the basis this info would drop during the campaign?
    That would be me! I sold at 387 and I'm left hoping that 21st Century Socialism will sweep across the nation....!

    I'm glad I laid Marine last weekend to balance the books (did I really just write that?)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    RobD said:

    BBC - It's understood a decison on whether to bring charges re South Thanet will be made before the election, possibly next week

    Could still be rather awkward. A week before the GE would be rather unhelpful to say the least, taking a leaf out of Comey's book.

    Do we know if the Thanet claims are specifically different? I thought it was all battle busses?
    20k of hotel bills it seems....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    I think we're looking forward to the next PB thread on it too.
    It'll be after the one with the 22 smiling Mays for the recent ICM poll :smiley:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    mwadams said:

    scotslass said:

    Truly remarkable - the CPS believe that the returns were inacurate, the Electoral Commission fines the Tories but now no proceedings on the basis that none of these agents and candidates really know what was going on.

    Really. What happened to the notion that ignorance of the law is no defence?

    That is not what the press release says. The standard of evidence for the Electoral Commission is to demonstrate that there was a breach of the regulations, for which they were fined. However, the standard of evidence for a criminal prosecution is much higher - it has to be proven that there was deliberate intent to knowingly breach the regulations.

    The press release does not say that the agents and candidates did not know what was going - it says that they believed that these expenses could be allocated centrally, not locally, and so they did not report them. This made the returns "inaccurate" and subject to an EC fine, but there clearly weren't any "hoho, if we pretend we think these are central expenses we can avoid reporting them, bwahahah" emails; so no criminal prosecution.
    Faisal Islam (no fan of the Tories) just said on Sky that he had seen leaked emails where candidates / agents repeatedly asked CCHQ is this local or national spending with CCHQ replying national.
    wot I said.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,006

    The key issue here really is the notion of local vs national spending is virtually impossible to work out in this digital age (and one where moving people around the country is trivial).

    The authorities really need to consider how to adjust the rules for the modern age.

    I totally agree. The whole idea of their being a clear difference between local and national spending really doesn't exist any more. I honestly can't think of any easy way of making that distinction, so it would make more sense to come up with a new approach to determining permissible levels of spending.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Off topic on May's appearance on the One Show. Philip May actually came across quite well, he seemed pretty on ease on camera (more than May herself, strangely), and likable. Complete fluff but can only help her image. Presumably though the BBC are obligated to offer appearances to the other major party leaders to appear with their partners?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    BBC - It's understood a decison on whether to bring charges re South Thanet will be made before the election, possibly next week

    Could still be rather awkward. A week before the GE would be rather unhelpful to say the least, taking a leaf out of Comey's book.

    Do we know if the Thanet claims are specifically different? I thought it was all battle busses?
    The suggestion in Thanet is there was a massive massive overspend in lots of different ways e.g Crick has claimed Tory individuals were located for long periods in hotels in the seat but Tories didn't record it as such.

    In these other seats, it wasn't even clear there was any overspend even if you said battle buses were in proportion local spending.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253

    IanB2 said:

    Just a 2% Labour to Conservative swing in a 60:40 Remain stronghold.

    My rough and ready model of differential swing from the other day might not be too bad.

    It suggests SW London is more positive for the LDs than most of the PB pundits have been predicting.
    There are a lot of very disgruntled Remain voters in these parts. Moderate and temperate voters like me often get their ears bent by them.
    I'm just trying to envisage what that might look like..

    Given your comments on Leave and to Leavers on here, how much worse can it get?!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,728
    That's a very good result for Labour in London, but implies that the swings against them in places like the North East and West Midlands will be enormous.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    RobD said:

    I think we're looking forward to the next PB thread on it too.
    It'll be after the one with the 22 smiling Mays for the recent ICM poll :smiley:
    there was an icm poll? ......
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    walterw said:

    franklyn

    'So 14 police forces have the time and manpower to investigate possible technical infringements of electoral law, but are too busy to investigate a major outbreak of violent crime (20 cases a day) by moped gangs in London.'


    Hopefully we get to find out how many police hours were wasted & what this nonsense has cost the taxpayer.

    14 police forces should not be investigating any sort of crime in London.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Jezza pitch, 50% increase in Corporation Tax...for ewucation.

    They're just making things up now, in the certain knowledge that they'll never have to ever actually do anything. (C) LibDems, Greens, UKIP.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Steven_Swinford: Jeremy Corbyn is questioning the CPS decision not to prosecute Tory MPs, saying that 'laws must be enforced so money can't buy power' #GE17

    @Maomentum_: The CPS should have respected Jeremy's mandate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    RobD said:

    I think we're looking forward to the next PB thread on it too.
    It'll be after the one with the 22 smiling Mays for the recent ICM poll :smiley:
    there was an icm poll? ......
    ;)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

    5-7 May, if you were serious :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Jezza - RIGGGGGGGEDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD SYTEM.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    IanB2 said:

    YouGov London poll: Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)

    So, Corbyn’s £80K wage and £450K homes tax raid going down a treat in London then..?
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Not a good week for Mr Crick. I have to agree the media look crestfallen at the loss of a massive story, so they are concentrating on South Thanet, which I believe is a different case.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Ruth Davidson finding it very difficult to retract from her position that Boris Johnson is a lying shit. Or to deny that Theresa May has surrounded herself with Brexiteers. It's embarrassing to listen to.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    edited May 2017
    Moderated
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Jason said:

    This does bring into question C4's impartiality, and the amount of time and effort they put into this story. Some serious and searching questions have to be asked of a national, subsidised broadcaster.

    BBC, Sky, etc, look like they're attending a wake at the moment.

    The EC fines show it was a real story.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356

    I think we're looking forward to the next PB thread on it too.
    I expect the next thread will be on the YouGov poll
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    I wonder if Team Twat opinions formed by reading the Canary will be get an airing?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253

    Oh dear, poor Mark "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus" Pack will be so crestfallen:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/02/mark-pack-on-the-major-event-that-could-yet-derail-this-election/

    That is almost as good as the Sion Simon article.
    Shortly there will be a CPS announcement, which will not affect the Government's majority.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    It must have been so painful for Midlife Crisis Mason to do Newsnight every night....not just to go wibble wibble wibble wibble the Tories.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Sean_F said:

    That's a very good result for Labour in London, but implies that the swings against them in places like the North East and West Midlands will be enormous.

    London living on another planet as usual...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,530

    mwadams said:

    scotslass said:

    Truly remarkable - the CPS believe that the returns were inacurate, the Electoral Commission fines the Tories but now no proceedings on the basis that none of these agents and candidates really know what was going on.

    Really. What happened to the notion that ignorance of the law is no defence?

    That is not what the press release says. The standard of evidence for the Electoral Commission is to demonstrate that there was a breach of the regulations, for which they were fined. However, the standard of evidence for a criminal prosecution is much higher - it has to be proven that there was deliberate intent to knowingly breach the regulations.

    The press release does not say that the agents and candidates did not know what was going - it says that they believed that these expenses could be allocated centrally, not locally, and so they did not report them. This made the returns "inaccurate" and subject to an EC fine, but there clearly weren't any "hoho, if we pretend we think these are central expenses we can avoid reporting them, bwahahah" emails; so no criminal prosecution.
    Faisal Islam (no fan of the Tories) just said on Sky that he had seen leaked emails where candidates / agents repeatedly asked CCHQ is this local or national spending with CCHQ replying national.
    Poor Faisal looked completely distraught, the nasty CPS took away the story he had planned to talk about all day.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2017
    scotslass said:

    Moderated

    I think you need to be careful on your choice of wording.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    I think we're looking forward to the next PB thread on it too.
    I expect the next thread will be on the YouGov poll
    I'm sure it will be, I've seen the LD change....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257

    Jason said:

    This does bring into question C4's impartiality, and the amount of time and effort they put into this story. Some serious and searching questions have to be asked of a national, subsidised broadcaster.

    BBC, Sky, etc, look like they're attending a wake at the moment.

    The EC fines show it was a real story.
    For each party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    The way this is playing out does suggest that proceedings in the South Thanet case may be more likely than not, with that case separated out to put some distance between it and the locations where the judgement is that no wrongdoing can be proven?
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195

    Oh dear, poor Mark "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus" Pack will be so crestfallen:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/02/mark-pack-on-the-major-event-that-could-yet-derail-this-election/

    That was a terrible article - the notion that elections had been 'rigged' was quite ridiculous. Such an assertion wouldn't have been correct even if charges had been brought.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    The bright side of this sorry saga is seeing so many 'progressives' who claim to be liberal, and sticklers for the application of the law, throwing their toys out of the pram because the law has been correctly applied.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253

    Off topic on May's appearance on the One Show. Philip May actually came across quite well, he seemed pretty on ease on camera (more than May herself, strangely), and likable. Complete fluff but can only help her image. Presumably though the BBC are obligated to offer appearances to the other major party leaders to appear with their partners?

    People love fluff. Voters love fluff.

    Why else are BakeOff, X-factor, and celebrity magazines are so popular?

    This is an election. Voters feeling politicians are also human helps empathy, and therefore getting votes.

    And all that matters to politicians is maximising votes, and getting them in the right places. There are no prizes for "how".
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,728

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov London poll: Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)

    So, Corbyn’s £80K wage and £450K homes tax raid going down a treat in London then..?
    These days, London has a clear left wing majority.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    "Gareth Thomas in Harrow West and Karen Buck in Westminster North are both in range of Conservative guns if Labour has a bad night."


    Labour are 3/1 to hold Harrow West and 11/4 to hold Westminster North. Seems very generous.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?
    Why would the CPS tell her of a decision three to four weeks before announcing it?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    IanB2 said:

    Just a 2% Labour to Conservative swing in a 60:40 Remain stronghold.

    My rough and ready model of differential swing from the other day might not be too bad.

    It suggests SW London is more positive for the LDs than most of the PB pundits have been predicting.
    I don't think that's a safe assumption. Inner city London is exactly where I'd expect to see the Lib Dems increasing their vote share. There are a lot of very disgruntled Remain voters in these parts. Moderate and temperate voters like me often get their ears bent by them.
    You may well be right - indeed the Inner/Outer point is one I made yesterday. In which case the pro-LD swing in Inner London must be dramatic (which supports various anecdotal reports from PB'ers and their acquaintances) and good news for Simon Hughes at least.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    The way this is playing out does suggest that proceedings in the South Thanet case may be more likely than not, with that case separated out to put some distance between it and the locations where the judgement is that no wrongdoing can be proven?


    No you can't say that:

    "One file, from Kent Police, was only recently received by the CPS, and remains under consideration. No inference as to whether any criminal charge may or may not be authorised in relation to this file should be drawn from this fact and we will announce our decision as soon as possible once we have considered the evidence in this matter."

    http://www.cps.gov.uk/news/latest_news/cps-statement-on-election-expenses/
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786

    Jezza - RIGGGGGGGEDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD SYTEM.

    He much prefers the state show-trial system of beloved south american countries clearly.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    Off topic on May's appearance on the One Show. Philip May actually came across quite well, he seemed pretty on ease on camera (more than May herself, strangely), and likable. Complete fluff but can only help her image. Presumably though the BBC are obligated to offer appearances to the other major party leaders to appear with their partners?

    Corbyn has been offered but declined invitation for his wife
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448

    The bright side of this sorry saga is seeing so many 'progressives' who claim to be liberal, and sticklers for the application of the law, throwing their toys out of the pram because the law has been correctly applied.

    Perhaps the CPS are "enemies of the people" ? :smiley:
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    The bright side of this sorry saga is seeing so many 'progressives' who claim to be liberal, and sticklers for the application of the law, throwing their toys out of the pram because the law has been correctly applied.

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/862251989807357953
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RobD said:

    Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?
    Why would the CPS tell her of a decision three to four weeks before announcing it?
    That's the point. Saying the election was not called because of the pending cases implies prior knowledge. If there was no such leak (or direction) then the chances remain high that fear of prosecution was a motivating factor in calling a snap election.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Roger said:

    Ruth Davidson finding it very difficult to retract from her position that Boris Johnson is a lying shit. Or to deny that Theresa May has surrounded herself with Brexiteers. It's embarrassing to listen to.

    Ruth favours independence should Boris ever takeover !!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,989

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov London poll: Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)

    So, Corbyn’s £80K wage and £450K homes tax raid going down a treat in London then..?
    Actually, Lab are +4 on the last poll, against Con +2 (LD and Grn being squeezed, seemingly). The main drop in the Lab share happened much earlier.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    RobD said:

    Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?
    Why would the CPS tell her of a decision three to four weeks before announcing it?
    That's the point. Saying the election was not called because of the pending cases implies prior knowledge. If there was no such leak (or direction) then the chances remain high that fear of prosecution was a motivating factor in calling a snap election.
    I don't think it implies that, because the decision could have been made totally independent of any CPS action.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,773
    The only surprise is that anyone is surprised.

    The Tories have more money and better organisation than Labour. They are also more popular. The latter matters most.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited May 2017
    Jason said:

    This does bring into question C4's impartiality, and the amount of time and effort they put into this story. Some serious and searching questions have to be asked of a national, subsidised broadcaster.

    BBC, Sky, etc, look like they're attending a wake at the moment.

    Michael Crick's remit is to hunt out wrong doing and hypocricy and he does it well. It reduces the humour when he takes it too far by getting the police involved and also makes it too tabloid. But it's nothing to do with impartiality.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Looking at Yougov's London form in 2015 and 2016 it wouldn't be a surprise to see that a five point poll lead is really somehwere between one and three.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    GIN1138 said:

    The bright side of this sorry saga is seeing so many 'progressives' who claim to be liberal, and sticklers for the application of the law, throwing their toys out of the pram because the law has been correctly applied.

    Perhaps the CPS are "enemies of the people" ? :smiley:
    I think they are jolly good chaps/chapettes . :smiley:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    Anyway, let this whole sorry episode be a reminder to all candidates to have the invoices for their Facebook page ready to submit....

    FFS.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Was Sturgeon wrong

    Invariably...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    scotslass said:

    Moderated

    The bluster of Salmond and Sturgeon is what's embarrassing - a year ago observers such as David Allan Green were saying the chances of charges were remote.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,369
    RobD said:

    Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?
    Why would the CPS tell her of a decision three to four weeks before announcing it?
    Yeah, therefore it's quite possible that Tessy in her 'ignorance' factored in possible prosecutions in her GE decision.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2017

    The bright side of this sorry saga is seeing so many 'progressives' who claim to be liberal, and sticklers for the application of the law, throwing their toys out of the pram because the law has been correctly applied.

    The Corbynite Twitter-monkeys are screeching at maximum volume and flinging their shit in all directions. It's hilarious.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    Roger said:

    Jason said:

    This does bring into question C4's impartiality, and the amount of time and effort they put into this story. Some serious and searching questions have to be asked of a national, subsidised broadcaster.

    BBC, Sky, etc, look like they're attending a wake at the moment.

    Michael Crick's remit is to hunt out wrong doing and hypocricy and he does it well. It reduces the humour when he takes it too far by getting the police involved and also makes it too tabloid. But it's nothing to do with impartiality.
    Funny though, how in his world, those on the left are invariably saints and those on the right invariably the sinners....

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Roger said:

    Jason said:

    This does bring into question C4's impartiality, and the amount of time and effort they put into this story. Some serious and searching questions have to be asked of a national, subsidised broadcaster.

    BBC, Sky, etc, look like they're attending a wake at the moment.

    Michael Crick's remit is to hunt out wrong doing and hypocricy and he does it well. It reduces the humour when he takes it too far by getting the police involved and also makes it too tabloid. But it's nothing to do with impartiality.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/862028699771731969
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356

    Roger said:

    Jason said:

    This does bring into question C4's impartiality, and the amount of time and effort they put into this story. Some serious and searching questions have to be asked of a national, subsidised broadcaster.

    BBC, Sky, etc, look like they're attending a wake at the moment.

    Michael Crick's remit is to hunt out wrong doing and hypocricy and he does it well. It reduces the humour when he takes it too far by getting the police involved and also makes it too tabloid. But it's nothing to do with impartiality.
    Funny though, how in his world, those on the left are invariably saints and those on the right invariably the sinners....

    Andrew Mitchell would vehemently disagree with you
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    This is a genuine thing. Mayllennial's. Milifandom was just a joke. The Marx brothers at the top of Labour are just a joke. But May is resonating in the most astounding ways

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/the-maylennials-are-young-women-who-love-theresa-may-and?utm_term=.fb7j7y3w8B#.ax09dwzegM
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    RobD said:

    Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?
    Why would the CPS tell her of a decision three to four weeks before announcing it?
    Yeah, therefore it's quite possible that Tessy in her 'ignorance' factored in possible prosecutions in her GE decision.
    I still don't buy that. Why would she call the election for after the deadline if she was worried about convictions? Surely she would have called it for May 4th.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Roger said:

    Jason said:

    This does bring into question C4's impartiality, and the amount of time and effort they put into this story. Some serious and searching questions have to be asked of a national, subsidised broadcaster.

    BBC, Sky, etc, look like they're attending a wake at the moment.

    Michael Crick's remit is to hunt out wrong doing and hypocricy and he does it well. It reduces the humour when he takes it too far by getting the police involved and also makes it too tabloid. But it's nothing to do with impartiality.
    Some of what you say is true, but it will now come across as a witch hunt. Crick over egged the pudding by a considerable margin.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Anorak said:

    The Corbynite Twitter-monkeys are screeching at maximum volume and flinging their shit in all directions. It's hilarious.

    They have an excuse for Jezza not resigning
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    calum said:

    Roger said:

    Ruth Davidson finding it very difficult to retract from her position that Boris Johnson is a lying shit. Or to deny that Theresa May has surrounded herself with Brexiteers. It's embarrassing to listen to.

    Ruth favours independence should Boris ever takeover !!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/ruth-davidson-believes-scottish-tories-would-break-away-if-boris/
    I think we'd all want to be somewhere else
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    As predicted.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,991

    The bright side of this sorry saga is seeing so many 'progressives' who claim to be liberal, and sticklers for the application of the law, throwing their toys out of the pram because the law has been correctly applied.

    I disagree.
    It's fairly depressing that so many relatively intelligent people have no faith in the criminal justice system - or are allowing their political opinions completely to obscure their judgment.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,728
    Artist said:

    "Gareth Thomas in Harrow West and Karen Buck in Westminster North are both in range of Conservative guns if Labour has a bad night."


    Labour are 3/1 to hold Harrow West and 11/4 to hold Westminster North. Seems very generous.

    I think the Conservatives will gain Harrow West, and Labour will hold Westminster North.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,216
    Oh well.

    Next.
  • Roger said:

    Jason said:

    This does bring into question C4's impartiality, and the amount of time and effort they put into this story. Some serious and searching questions have to be asked of a national, subsidised broadcaster.

    BBC, Sky, etc, look like they're attending a wake at the moment.

    Michael Crick's remit is to hunt out wrong doing and hypocricy and he does it well. It reduces the humour when he takes it too far by getting the police involved and also makes it too tabloid. But it's nothing to do with impartiality.
    Funny though, how in his world, those on the left are invariably saints and those on the right invariably the sinners....

    This whole saga wont move one vote. Those who believe the Tories are guilty would always have voted anyone but the Tories. To those Ex UKIP and Labour voters who are going to vote for Theresa May on June 8th it won't even register as an event and if it does it will be on the what a waste of police time spectrum.
  • Sporting, the precious darlings, have resumed coverage of their GE markets, with their spread prices unchanged from before.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just a 2% Labour to Conservative swing in a 60:40 Remain stronghold.

    My rough and ready model of differential swing from the other day might not be too bad.

    It suggests SW London is more positive for the LDs than most of the PB pundits have been predicting.
    I don't think that's a safe assumption. Inner city London is exactly where I'd expect to see the Lib Dems increasing their vote share. There are a lot of very disgruntled Remain voters in these parts. Moderate and temperate voters like me often get their ears bent by them.
    You may well be right - indeed the Inner/Outer point is one I made yesterday. In which case the pro-LD swing in Inner London must be dramatic (which supports various anecdotal reports from PB'ers and their acquaintances) and good news for Simon Hughes at least.
    Plenty of disgruntled over my dead body Lab voters where I have canvassed who look set to head over to the LDs more as a ABLBNC vote than any other reason.

    Edit: Cons remainers, meanwhile, look likely to head over to LDs also as NCBCVLs.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    David Allen Green @davidallengreen
    But not to anyone with knowledge of electoral law.
    BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking
    Replying to @BBCBreaking
    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn "surprised" at CPS decision not to bring charges over Tory 2015 spending on battle buses
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,369
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?
    Why would the CPS tell her of a decision three to four weeks before announcing it?
    Yeah, therefore it's quite possible that Tessy in her 'ignorance' factored in possible prosecutions in her GE decision.
    I still don't buy that. Why would she call the election for after the deadline if she was worried about convictions? Surely she would have called it for May 4th.
    'Tessy definitely didn't know in advance how the investigation into electoral fraud would pan out, but that investigation definitely had no bearing on her calling a snap election. Definitely.'

    Cake, be warned, you will be possessed and consumed.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Scott_P said:

    Anorak said:

    The Corbynite Twitter-monkeys are screeching at maximum volume and flinging their shit in all directions. It's hilarious.

    They have an excuse for Jezza not resigning
    I'm not sure they need an excuse, so lost to political reality* are they.

    *or any kind of reality, for that matter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,530

    Sporting, the precious darlings, have resumed coverage of their GE markets, with their spread prices unchanged from before.

    That is rather annoying, I was kinda hoping it would drop ten seats this morning! There's a lot of potential downside buying at 401.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    edited May 2017

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?
    Why would the CPS tell her of a decision three to four weeks before announcing it?
    Yeah, therefore it's quite possible that Tessy in her 'ignorance' factored in possible prosecutions in her GE decision.
    I still don't buy that. Why would she call the election for after the deadline if she was worried about convictions? Surely she would have called it for May 4th.
    'Tessy definitely didn't know in advance how the investigation into electoral fraud would pan out, but that definitely had no bearing on her calling a snap election. Definitely.'

    Cake, be warned, you will be possessed and consumed.
    If she didn't know in advance how it would pan out, and it did have bearing, why did she call for the election to be held *after* the deadline?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356
    Sandpit said:

    Sporting, the precious darlings, have resumed coverage of their GE markets, with their spread prices unchanged from before.

    That is rather annoying, I was kinda hoping it would drop ten seats this morning! There's a lot of potential downside buying at 401.
    Should have listened to me.

    My tip of the day. Sell the SNP.

    There's not much potential downside to that bet.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Scott_P said:
    "Ever more clearer"......Scottish education these days.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Sandpit said:

    Sporting, the precious darlings, have resumed coverage of their GE markets, with their spread prices unchanged from before.

    That is rather annoying, I was kinda hoping it would drop ten seats this morning! There's a lot of potential downside buying at 401.
    Aren't you a tad worried that May might dissolve the Tory party and create a new "May's Team Party"? :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"

    Haven't other parties too?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Scott_P said:
    The economic outlook, Brexit troubles, and the opportunity were always the most credible reasons.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,530

    Sandpit said:

    Sporting, the precious darlings, have resumed coverage of their GE markets, with their spread prices unchanged from before.

    That is rather annoying, I was kinda hoping it would drop ten seats this morning! There's a lot of potential downside buying at 401.
    Should have listened to me.

    My tip of the day. Sell the SNP.

    There's not much potential downside to that bet.
    You'd sell at 43?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356
    From a Director of Populus Polls. Chortle

    https://twitter.com/LaurenceThinks/status/862257426669723652
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?
    Why would the CPS tell her of a decision three to four weeks before announcing it?
    Yeah, therefore it's quite possible that Tessy in her 'ignorance' factored in possible prosecutions in her GE decision.
    I still don't buy that. Why would she call the election for after the deadline if she was worried about convictions? Surely she would have called it for May 4th.
    'Tessy definitely didn't know in advance how the investigation into electoral fraud would pan out, but that definitely had no bearing on her calling a snap election. Definitely.'

    Cake, be warned, you will be possessed and consumed.
    If she didn't know in advance how it would pan out, and it did have bearing, why did she call for the election to be held *after* the deadline?
    To avoid having charges laid just a week after the election? If CPS action was a factor, the election would need to be after the deadline to allow new candidates to be chosen.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Scott P

    I have looked at the Salmond clip you have posted. What exactly is wrong with it?

    His target seems to be the reappointed Tory campaign team directing the party who have already been fined by the Electoral Commission for the last election. That is true.

    Are you or any of your fellow travellers seriously suggesting that the Tory high command did not see the CPS process as a risk to their campaign?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Haven't other parties too?

    @EricPickles: In Dec, LibDems were fined £20k for not declaring 307 items of spending; LibDems referred to Met Police for a criminal investigation.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.

    If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.

    In Russia Crick would be found dead in a ditch or enjoying a pot of polonium tea. In the UK we should celebrate robust journalistic investigations.

    Conservatives nicked a draw in injury time. Hardly a Champion League Final win.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sporting, the precious darlings, have resumed coverage of their GE markets, with their spread prices unchanged from before.

    That is rather annoying, I was kinda hoping it would drop ten seats this morning! There's a lot of potential downside buying at 401.
    Should have listened to me.

    My tip of the day. Sell the SNP.

    There's not much potential downside to that bet.
    You'd sell at 43?
    If push came to shove, yes.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    edited May 2017

    The bright side of this sorry saga is seeing so many 'progressives' who claim to be liberal, and sticklers for the application of the law, throwing their toys out of the pram because the law has been correctly applied.

    I think you are imagining this somewhat, or overegging it at the very least.

    Do you not think it should have at least been investigated? Or is anything the Tories do fine by you?


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,636
    Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)

    No chance.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    The bright side of this sorry saga is seeing so many 'progressives' who claim to be liberal, and sticklers for the application of the law, throwing their toys out of the pram because the law has been correctly applied.

    Indeed its like the article 50 case all over again :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Paul Mason @paulmasonnews
    CPS confirms: UK electoral law unenforcable. While labour movement accounts for every penny, billionaires can buy any election they want
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Sean_F said:

    Artist said:

    "Gareth Thomas in Harrow West and Karen Buck in Westminster North are both in range of Conservative guns if Labour has a bad night."


    Labour are 3/1 to hold Harrow West and 11/4 to hold Westminster North. Seems very generous.

    I think the Conservatives will gain Harrow West, and Labour will hold Westminster North.
    Can't see Karen Buck holding on. Lib Dems at rock bottom and are bound to steal one or two thousand off the reds.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?
    Why would the CPS tell her of a decision three to four weeks before announcing it?
    Yeah, therefore it's quite possible that Tessy in her 'ignorance' factored in possible prosecutions in her GE decision.
    I still don't buy that. Why would she call the election for after the deadline if she was worried about convictions? Surely she would have called it for May 4th.
    'Tessy definitely didn't know in advance how the investigation into electoral fraud would pan out, but that definitely had no bearing on her calling a snap election. Definitely.'

    Cake, be warned, you will be possessed and consumed.
    If she didn't know in advance how it would pan out, and it did have bearing, why did she call for the election to be held *after* the deadline?
    To avoid having charges laid just a week after the election? If CPS action was a factor, the election would need to be after the deadline to allow new candidates to be chosen.
    Given the anticipated size of the majority, I doubt the prospect of that would have bothered her!
This discussion has been closed.