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  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Sporting, the precious darlings, have resumed coverage of their GE markets, with their spread prices unchanged from before.

    Well quite, - probably the soundest voice we’ll hear on today’s events.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TOPPING said:

    Plenty of disgruntled over my dead body Lab voters where I have canvassed who look set to head over to the LDs more as a ABLBNC vote than any other reason.

    Edit: Cons remainers, meanwhile, look likely to head over to LDs also as NCBCVLs.
    Anyone but Lionel Blair's Nephew Charlie?

    November cricket brings cold vegetarian lunches?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,043
    RobD said:

    If she didn't know in advance how it would pan out, and it did have bearing, why did she call for the election to be held *after* the deadline?
    It's entirely possible it had no bearing on the decision, but influenced the precise timing, even if May believed that the risk of charges being brought was extremely slim.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    If push came to shove, yes.
    Well you've got bigger balls than I have!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"

    Almost a funny from Farron ....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,341
    Kate Hoey is THE inner city London bet imo.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,903
    edited May 2017
    JackW said:

    The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.

    If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.

    Happily all those responsible for the 2015 election, Cameron, Osborne and the Chumocracy have been given the sack so we can all breath a sigh of relief! :smiley:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,806
    JackW said:

    Almost a funny from Farron ....
    He should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,081
    Pulpstar said:

    Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)

    No chance.

    Yep - UKIP closer to 2% in London. Tories understated in poll IMHO.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,806
    GIN1138 said:

    Happily all those responsible for the 2015 election Cameron, Osborne and the Chumocracy have been given the sack so we can all breath a sigh of relief! :smiley:
    Sir Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina say hello.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,043

    Paul Mason @paulmasonnews
    CPS confirms: UK electoral law unenforcable. While labour movement accounts for every penny, billionaires can buy any election they want

    Given the relatively small sums involved, shouldn't that be 'millionaires' ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811
    Anorak said:

    Anyone but Lionel Blair's Nephew Charlie?

    November cricket brings cold vegetarian lunches?
    In one!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"

    Eric Pickles: n Dec, LibDems were fined £20k for not declaring 307 items of spending; LibDems referred to Met Police for a criminal investigation.
  • PatrickPatrick Posts: 225
    saddo said:

    This is a genuine thing. Mayllennial's. Milifandom was just a joke. The Marx brothers at the top of Labour are just a joke. But May is resonating in the most astounding ways

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/the-maylennials-are-young-women-who-love-theresa-may-and?utm_term=.fb7j7y3w8B#.ax09dwzegM

    This is interesting, and potentially important. The biggest voting gap the Tories have has historically been young women. If May is attracting them over then the polling for Tories will certainly move in her favour going forwards.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,514
    Betting Post

    Must say, for what it's worth, I agree with Mr. Sandpit. Were I a spread bettor, I would not sell the SNP at 43.

    Speaking of such things, here's a repost of stuff from yesterday.

    F1: to commemorate the excellent and wonderful Verstappen tip last year, I've put a very, very small amount on Perez at 41 and Hulkenberg at 126 respectively to get on the podium. These are slightly silly bets, but do have a modicum of reasoning, besides the anniversary of arguably the greatest fluke tip in the site's history.

    Spain is very hard to pass on, and Hulkenberg's been qualifying strongly (I think he started 6th last time). If there's trouble ahead, he could stand to benefit ahead of many others. Perez, if tyre degradation is excessive, is very good at managing them and drives well on tight circuits.

    A slightly more serious bet to consider is Raikkonen each way at 13 for the win. He drove very well last time (had the pace for pole but screwed it up) and last year was better than Vettel in every session of Spain.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,731
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"

    So, if you don't want to look a hypocrite you'll be paying back that £2.4m from Michael Brown then eh Tim? If you want to claim that spirit of the law moral high-ground.

    The Liberal Democrats. Smug, hypocritical bastards since....forever.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,390
    edited May 2017
    felix said:

    Eric Pickles: n Dec, LibDems were fined £20k for not declaring 307 items of spending; LibDems referred to Met Police for a criminal investigation.


    Paging Mark Pack.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Scott_P said:

    @EricPickles: In Dec, LibDems were fined £20k for not declaring 307 items of spending; LibDems referred to Met Police for a criminal investigation.
    Yep, all parties have been fined by the EC for their sloppy accounting. The Commission needs to clarify the rules urgently to avoid the same mistakes again. It would be sensible to have EC lawyers on a duty rota to handle and clarify enquiries from parties during the campaign, rather than end up with the police and CPS dealing with it two years later.
  • I do hope that this case at least makes people file their expenses properly. If nothing else, that will deaden the false hopes of people who can't possibly hope to win elections without the other side being disqualified.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,806
    I've said it before, we should abolish constituency spending limits.

    All the parties should be given a national spending limit, and it is up to them where they spend it.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)

    No chance.

    Yeh, 4% max.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    The correct approach for the Tories to take, Bill Wragg at 11:52

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/10/general-election-2017-tory-mps-expenses-one-show-politics-live

    and the wrong approach, Karl McCartney at 11:43. He should keep his mouth shut.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,341

    Yeh, 4% max.
    Candidate deadlines tommorow, we might be able to discern more or less the UKIP max from that alone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,043
    JackW said:

    The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.

    If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.

    In Russia Crick would be found dead in a ditch or enjoying a pot of polonium tea. In the UK we should celebrate robust journalistic investigations.

    Conservatives nicked a draw in injury time. Hardly a Champion League Final win.

    Sounds about right.
    And the same defence would not be entirely credible if they pull the same trick again this time around. Electoral law is probably a little more enforceable than Paul Mason believes.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    He should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?
    It certainly is.

    Shocking graphics.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,903
    edited May 2017

    Sir Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina say hello.
    They are just on the payroll... They aren't dishing out money etc.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,475
    JackW said:

    The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.

    If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.

    In Russia Crick would be found dead in a ditch or enjoying a pot of polonium tea. In the UK we should celebrate robust journalistic investigations.

    Conservatives nicked a draw in injury time. Hardly a Champion League Final win.

    Not all Tories are graceless twats.

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/862253933850439680

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,806

    The correct approach for the Tories to take, Bill Wragg at 11:52

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/10/general-election-2017-tory-mps-expenses-one-show-politics-live

    and the wrong approach, Karl McCartney at 11:43. He should keep his mouth shut.

    Indeed. Be magnanimous in victory
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Yeh, 4% max.
    How many constituencies in London are UKIP going to be standing in?

    And who are would-be UKIP voters going to vote for when they turn up to the polling booth to find themselves thwarted in that aspiration?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955

    Just can't really imagine Tynemouth going blue.

    You would think so, but it's quite an old population, isn't it? And it was blue until 1997.

    I guess the big question is where do UKIP voters in a constituency like that go - do they head over to the Tories or would they rather just stay at home?

    I don't fancy it at evens at all. But there could be a few shocks like this on the night...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,514
    Mr. Eagles, an interesting side-effect of such a move, which may help the law both be enforced and clear, would be to make it easier for smaller parties to break through, as they could focus national level resources in a small number of seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,390

    Indeed. Be magnanimous in victory
    Advice for June 8th? :p
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,806

    Mr. Eagles, an interesting side-effect of such a move, which may help the law both be enforced and clear, would be to make it easier for smaller parties to break through, as they could focus national level resources in a small number of seats.

    I could live with that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,390

    Mr. Eagles, an interesting side-effect of such a move, which may help the law both be enforced and clear, would be to make it easier for smaller parties to break through, as they could focus national level resources in a small number of seats.

    Although independents would be buggered, unless national spend doesn't take into account the number of seats you stand in (which would be very advantageous to the SNP)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,806
    RobD said:

    Advice for June 8th? :p
    Yup, there's only one thing worse than a sore loser, a sore winner.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,341

    How many constituencies in London are UKIP going to be standing in?

    And who are would-be UKIP voters going to vote for when they turn up to the polling booth to find themselves thwarted in that aspiration?
    General Election 2015: Vauxhall
    UKIP Ace Nnorom 1,385 2.9

    LOL
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    I've said it before, we should abolish constituency spending limits.

    All the parties should be given a national spending limit, and it is up to them where they spend it.

    I'd pity the poor souls living in marginals, were that to happen.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,034
    Panelbase doesn't show much movement in response to May's jingoism on the steps of Downing Street.

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/862261413150171136
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    So, if you don't want to look a hypocrite you'll be paying back that £2.4m from Michael Brown then eh Tim? If you want to claim that spirit of the law moral high-ground.

    The Liberal Democrats. Smug, hypocritical bastards since....forever.

    You strangely forgot about Asil Nadir.

    Conservatives. Smug, hypercritical bastards since.... forever .... eating babies too
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,806
    It is a sign of a healthy democracy that the DPP knew that if she had brought charges in the expenses saga, Theresa May couldn't do a James Comey on her.

    Be grateful we live in such a country.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Panelbase doesn't show much movement in response to May's jingoism on the steps of Downing Street.

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/862261413150171136

    No difference in your stance either.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,390
    JackW said:

    You strangely forgot about Asil Nadir.

    Conservatives. Smug, hypercritical bastards since.... forever .... eating babies too
    Hard not to be smug when you are enjoying a meal as delicious as that :smiley:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Pulpstar said:

    Candidate deadlines tommorow, we might be able to discern more or less the UKIP max from that alone.
    We know of several seats where UKIP aren't standing, but I guess by tomorrow we'll know how many deposits they've managed to raise. I think it could be in the double figures, in which case around 3/4 of their current poll support could still go elsewhere when the voters realise there isn't a ukip candidate to vote for.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,806

    NEW THREAD

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Indeed. Be magnanimous in victory
    Not being up before the beak is hardly a "victory".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,806
    Anorak said:

    I'd pity the poor souls living in marginals, were that to happen.
    Let them eat cake They can always move.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,514
    Mr. D, hmm, probably. Depends how deep their pockets are.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Panelbase doesn't show much movement in response to May's jingoism on the steps of Downing Street.

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/862261413150171136

    Thinking Brexit is wrong and thinking Junckers is a self-important dickhead needing a slapping down are not exclusive positions.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    felix said:

    Indeed its like the article 50 case all over again :)
    CPS: Enemies of the People.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,043

    Betting Post

    Must say, for what it's worth, I agree with Mr. Sandpit. Were I a spread bettor, I would not sell the SNP at 43.

    Speaking of such things, here's a repost of stuff from yesterday.

    F1: to commemorate the excellent and wonderful Verstappen tip last year, I've put a very, very small amount on Perez at 41 and Hulkenberg at 126 respectively to get on the podium. These are slightly silly bets, but do have a modicum of reasoning, besides the anniversary of arguably the greatest fluke tip in the site's history.

    Spain is very hard to pass on, and Hulkenberg's been qualifying strongly (I think he started 6th last time). If there's trouble ahead, he could stand to benefit ahead of many others. Perez, if tyre degradation is excessive, is very good at managing them and drives well on tight circuits.

    A slightly more serious bet to consider is Raikkonen each way at 13 for the win. He drove very well last time (had the pace for pole but screwed it up) and last year was better than Vettel in every session of Spain.

    I have a small amount on Raikkonen at 22 to take pole...I'm not quite sure why Mercedes should still be favourites in Spain. Hope being placed in the upgrade of gearbox, etc ?
  • Huh...the open file has only just been received from Kent Police? I thought Thanet was one of the first out of the blocks?

    Probably relates to certain witness statements now being more forthcoming.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,833

    He should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?
    Certainly - it should be a battle-TRAIN!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,341
    Good job there are no rules like that on politics and betting... I think...
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Update from Labour's most marginal seat in London: Ealing Central & Acton. Rupa Huq's latest election missive is almost solely aimed at potential Lab-LD switchers, which suggests to me the canvassing returns are showing that this is her main problem. St. Vince has, of course, given her his blessing and to be fair the LD candidate is an uninspiring retread who was prosecuted last year for failing to pay his council tax. That along with today's polling has made me reassess her chances from 0% to around 15%. Still looks like a clear Tory gain, though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811

    Update from Labour's most marginal seat in London: Ealing Central & Acton. Rupa Huq's latest election missive is almost solely aimed at potential Lab-LD switchers, which suggests to me the canvassing returns are showing that this is her main problem. St. Vince has, of course, given her his blessing and to be fair the LD candidate is an uninspiring retread who was prosecuted last year for failing to pay his council tax. That along with today's polling has made me reassess her chances from 0% to around 15%. Still looks like a clear Tory gain, though.

    See my post on the other thread
This discussion has been closed.