Just a 2% Labour to Conservative swing in a 60:40 Remain stronghold.
My rough and ready model of differential swing from the other day might not be too bad.
It suggests SW London is more positive for the LDs than most of the PB pundits have been predicting.
I don't think that's a safe assumption. Inner city London is exactly where I'd expect to see the Lib Dems increasing their vote share. There are a lot of very disgruntled Remain voters in these parts. Moderate and temperate voters like me often get their ears bent by them.
You may well be right - indeed the Inner/Outer point is one I made yesterday. In which case the pro-LD swing in Inner London must be dramatic (which supports various anecdotal reports from PB'ers and their acquaintances) and good news for Simon Hughes at least.
Plenty of disgruntled over my dead body Lab voters where I have canvassed who look set to head over to the LDs more as a ABLBNC vote than any other reason.
Edit: Cons remainers, meanwhile, look likely to head over to LDs also as NCBCVLs.
Was Sturgeon wrong or did Theresa May already know the CPS decision?
Why would the CPS tell her of a decision three to four weeks before announcing it?
Yeah, therefore it's quite possible that Tessy in her 'ignorance' factored in possible prosecutions in her GE decision.
I still don't buy that. Why would she call the election for after the deadline if she was worried about convictions? Surely she would have called it for May 4th.
'Tessy definitely didn't know in advance how the investigation into electoral fraud would pan out, but that definitely had no bearing on her calling a snap election. Definitely.'
Cake, be warned, you will be possessed and consumed.
If she didn't know in advance how it would pan out, and it did have bearing, why did she call for the election to be held *after* the deadline?
It's entirely possible it had no bearing on the decision, but influenced the precise timing, even if May believed that the risk of charges being brought was extremely slim.
@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.
If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.
Happily all those responsible for the 2015 election, Cameron, Osborne and the Chumocracy have been given the sack so we can all breath a sigh of relief!
@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
Almost a funny from Farron ....
He should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?
The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.
If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.
Happily all those responsible for the 2015 election Cameron, Osborne and the Chumocracy have been given the sack so we can all breath a sigh of relief!
Paul Mason @paulmasonnews CPS confirms: UK electoral law unenforcable. While labour movement accounts for every penny, billionaires can buy any election they want
Given the relatively small sums involved, shouldn't that be 'millionaires' ?
@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
Eric Pickles: n Dec, LibDems were fined £20k for not declaring 307 items of spending; LibDems referred to Met Police for a criminal investigation.
Just a 2% Labour to Conservative swing in a 60:40 Remain stronghold.
My rough and ready model of differential swing from the other day might not be too bad.
It suggests SW London is more positive for the LDs than most of the PB pundits have been predicting.
I don't think that's a safe assumption. Inner city London is exactly where I'd expect to see the Lib Dems increasing their vote share. There are a lot of very disgruntled Remain voters in these parts. Moderate and temperate voters like me often get their ears bent by them.
You may well be right - indeed the Inner/Outer point is one I made yesterday. In which case the pro-LD swing in Inner London must be dramatic (which supports various anecdotal reports from PB'ers and their acquaintances) and good news for Simon Hughes at least.
Plenty of disgruntled over my dead body Lab voters where I have canvassed who look set to head over to the LDs more as a ABLBNC vote than any other reason.
Edit: Cons remainers, meanwhile, look likely to head over to LDs also as NCBCVLs.
This is a genuine thing. Mayllennial's. Milifandom was just a joke. The Marx brothers at the top of Labour are just a joke. But May is resonating in the most astounding ways
This is interesting, and potentially important. The biggest voting gap the Tories have has historically been young women. If May is attracting them over then the polling for Tories will certainly move in her favour going forwards.
Must say, for what it's worth, I agree with Mr. Sandpit. Were I a spread bettor, I would not sell the SNP at 43.
Speaking of such things, here's a repost of stuff from yesterday.
F1: to commemorate the excellent and wonderful Verstappen tip last year, I've put a very, very small amount on Perez at 41 and Hulkenberg at 126 respectively to get on the podium. These are slightly silly bets, but do have a modicum of reasoning, besides the anniversary of arguably the greatest fluke tip in the site's history.
Spain is very hard to pass on, and Hulkenberg's been qualifying strongly (I think he started 6th last time). If there's trouble ahead, he could stand to benefit ahead of many others. Perez, if tyre degradation is excessive, is very good at managing them and drives well on tight circuits.
A slightly more serious bet to consider is Raikkonen each way at 13 for the win. He drove very well last time (had the pace for pole but screwed it up) and last year was better than Vettel in every session of Spain.
@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
So, if you don't want to look a hypocrite you'll be paying back that £2.4m from Michael Brown then eh Tim? If you want to claim that spirit of the law moral high-ground.
The Liberal Democrats. Smug, hypocritical bastards since....forever.
@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
Eric Pickles: n Dec, LibDems were fined £20k for not declaring 307 items of spending; LibDems referred to Met Police for a criminal investigation.
@EricPickles: In Dec, LibDems were fined £20k for not declaring 307 items of spending; LibDems referred to Met Police for a criminal investigation.
Yep, all parties have been fined by the EC for their sloppy accounting. The Commission needs to clarify the rules urgently to avoid the same mistakes again. It would be sensible to have EC lawyers on a duty rota to handle and clarify enquiries from parties during the campaign, rather than end up with the police and CPS dealing with it two years later.
I do hope that this case at least makes people file their expenses properly. If nothing else, that will deaden the false hopes of people who can't possibly hope to win elections without the other side being disqualified.
The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.
If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.
In Russia Crick would be found dead in a ditch or enjoying a pot of polonium tea. In the UK we should celebrate robust journalistic investigations.
Conservatives nicked a draw in injury time. Hardly a Champion League Final win.
Sounds about right. And the same defence would not be entirely credible if they pull the same trick again this time around. Electoral law is probably a little more enforceable than Paul Mason believes.
@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
Almost a funny from Farron ....
He should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?
The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.
If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.
Happily all those responsible for the 2015 election Cameron, Osborne and the Chumocracy have been given the sack so we can all breath a sigh of relief!
Sir Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina say hello.
They are just on the payroll... They aren't dishing out money etc.
The smell of hubris from PB Tories hangs in the air.
If the Conservatives hadn't been incompetent about their dodgy election expenses then Crick wouldn't have had a story. You messed up. He found out and reported upon it.
In Russia Crick would be found dead in a ditch or enjoying a pot of polonium tea. In the UK we should celebrate robust journalistic investigations.
Conservatives nicked a draw in injury time. Hardly a Champion League Final win.
You would think so, but it's quite an old population, isn't it? And it was blue until 1997.
I guess the big question is where do UKIP voters in a constituency like that go - do they head over to the Tories or would they rather just stay at home?
I don't fancy it at evens at all. But there could be a few shocks like this on the night...
Mr. Eagles, an interesting side-effect of such a move, which may help the law both be enforced and clear, would be to make it easier for smaller parties to break through, as they could focus national level resources in a small number of seats.
Mr. Eagles, an interesting side-effect of such a move, which may help the law both be enforced and clear, would be to make it easier for smaller parties to break through, as they could focus national level resources in a small number of seats.
Mr. Eagles, an interesting side-effect of such a move, which may help the law both be enforced and clear, would be to make it easier for smaller parties to break through, as they could focus national level resources in a small number of seats.
Although independents would be buggered, unless national spend doesn't take into account the number of seats you stand in (which would be very advantageous to the SNP)
@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
So, if you don't want to look a hypocrite you'll be paying back that £2.4m from Michael Brown then eh Tim? If you want to claim that spirit of the law moral high-ground.
The Liberal Democrats. Smug, hypocritical bastards since....forever.
You strangely forgot about Asil Nadir.
Conservatives. Smug, hypercritical bastards since.... forever .... eating babies too
It is a sign of a healthy democracy that the DPP knew that if she had brought charges in the expenses saga, Theresa May couldn't do a James Comey on her.
@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
So, if you don't want to look a hypocrite you'll be paying back that £2.4m from Michael Brown then eh Tim? If you want to claim that spirit of the law moral high-ground.
The Liberal Democrats. Smug, hypocritical bastards since....forever.
You strangely forgot about Asil Nadir.
Conservatives. Smug, hypercritical bastards since.... forever .... eating babies too
Hard not to be smug when you are enjoying a meal as delicious as that
Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)
No chance.
Yeh, 4% max.
Candidate deadlines tommorow, we might be able to discern more or less the UKIP max from that alone.
We know of several seats where UKIP aren't standing, but I guess by tomorrow we'll know how many deposits they've managed to raise. I think it could be in the double figures, in which case around 3/4 of their current poll support could still go elsewhere when the voters realise there isn't a ukip candidate to vote for.
The bright side of this sorry saga is seeing so many 'progressives' who claim to be liberal, and sticklers for the application of the law, throwing their toys out of the pram because the law has been correctly applied.
Indeed its like the article 50 case all over again
Must say, for what it's worth, I agree with Mr. Sandpit. Were I a spread bettor, I would not sell the SNP at 43.
Speaking of such things, here's a repost of stuff from yesterday.
F1: to commemorate the excellent and wonderful Verstappen tip last year, I've put a very, very small amount on Perez at 41 and Hulkenberg at 126 respectively to get on the podium. These are slightly silly bets, but do have a modicum of reasoning, besides the anniversary of arguably the greatest fluke tip in the site's history.
Spain is very hard to pass on, and Hulkenberg's been qualifying strongly (I think he started 6th last time). If there's trouble ahead, he could stand to benefit ahead of many others. Perez, if tyre degradation is excessive, is very good at managing them and drives well on tight circuits.
A slightly more serious bet to consider is Raikkonen each way at 13 for the win. He drove very well last time (had the pace for pole but screwed it up) and last year was better than Vettel in every session of Spain.
I have a small amount on Raikkonen at 22 to take pole...I'm not quite sure why Mercedes should still be favourites in Spain. Hope being placed in the upgrade of gearbox, etc ?
@SkyNewsBreak: Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron says "the Conservative Party driven a battlebus and horses right the way through the spirit of the law"
Almost a funny from Farron ....
He should have been asked, does he consider the Tory Battlebus a sin?
Update from Labour's most marginal seat in London: Ealing Central & Acton. Rupa Huq's latest election missive is almost solely aimed at potential Lab-LD switchers, which suggests to me the canvassing returns are showing that this is her main problem. St. Vince has, of course, given her his blessing and to be fair the LD candidate is an uninspiring retread who was prosecuted last year for failing to pay his council tax. That along with today's polling has made me reassess her chances from 0% to around 15%. Still looks like a clear Tory gain, though.
Update from Labour's most marginal seat in London: Ealing Central & Acton. Rupa Huq's latest election missive is almost solely aimed at potential Lab-LD switchers, which suggests to me the canvassing returns are showing that this is her main problem. St. Vince has, of course, given her his blessing and to be fair the LD candidate is an uninspiring retread who was prosecuted last year for failing to pay his council tax. That along with today's polling has made me reassess her chances from 0% to around 15%. Still looks like a clear Tory gain, though.
Comments
November cricket brings cold vegetarian lunches?
Betting PostMust say, for what it's worth, I agree with Mr. Sandpit. Were I a spread bettor, I would not sell the SNP at 43.
Speaking of such things, here's a repost of stuff from yesterday.
F1: to commemorate the excellent and wonderful Verstappen tip last year, I've put a very, very small amount on Perez at 41 and Hulkenberg at 126 respectively to get on the podium. These are slightly silly bets, but do have a modicum of reasoning, besides the anniversary of arguably the greatest fluke tip in the site's history.
Spain is very hard to pass on, and Hulkenberg's been qualifying strongly (I think he started 6th last time). If there's trouble ahead, he could stand to benefit ahead of many others. Perez, if tyre degradation is excessive, is very good at managing them and drives well on tight circuits.
A slightly more serious bet to consider is Raikkonen each way at 13 for the win. He drove very well last time (had the pace for pole but screwed it up) and last year was better than Vettel in every session of Spain.
The Liberal Democrats. Smug, hypocritical bastards since....forever.
Paging Mark Pack.
All the parties should be given a national spending limit, and it is up to them where they spend it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/10/general-election-2017-tory-mps-expenses-one-show-politics-live
and the wrong approach, Karl McCartney at 11:43. He should keep his mouth shut.
And the same defence would not be entirely credible if they pull the same trick again this time around. Electoral law is probably a little more enforceable than Paul Mason believes.
Shocking graphics.
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/862253933850439680
And who are would-be UKIP voters going to vote for when they turn up to the polling booth to find themselves thwarted in that aspiration?
I guess the big question is where do UKIP voters in a constituency like that go - do they head over to the Tories or would they rather just stay at home?
I don't fancy it at evens at all. But there could be a few shocks like this on the night...
UKIP Ace Nnorom 1,385 2.9
LOL
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/862261413150171136
Conservatives. Smug, hypercritical bastards since.... forever .... eating babies too
Be grateful we live in such a country.
NEW THREAD
http://www.scotsman.com/regions/dumfries-borders/annan-chairman-and-new-snp-councillor-faces-football-bet-charge-1-4441382