politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At 11am the Crown Prosecution Service announces what it is doi
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Damp squib it is.0
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Sky News: No charges, but one investigation remains open.0
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Bah! As I expected0
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People are confusing weight and mass.0
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There goes the last hope for labour.
Big plus for the conservatives0 -
I predict lots of conspiracy theories will be tweeted in the coming hours.0
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OGH and TSE breathe a huge sigh of relief as they don't have to worry about that anymore....0
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Surely Hampstead can't go Tory. What will the luvies do?chestnut said:..
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I hope not, another major inquiry would sound the death knell for many a polling firm.FrancisUrquhart said:I still think we are heading for polling disaster inquiry MK II....I just can't believe that a) basically half the nation will vote Tory and b) that Jezza might perform better than Brown or Miliband.
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Thanet doesn't have to be done before June 8, they got a year extension on June 11 last year0
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I strongly suspect that Labour are hoovering up pointless Green votes in places like Hackney and Islington whilst losing them in more marginal suburban seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
The current state of the parties in London, according to YouGov’s study of 1,040 Londoners, is Labour on 41 per cent, down from their 43 per cent at the 2015 election, and Theresa May’s Conservatives on 36 per cent, up from 34.isam said:twitter.com/standardnews/status/862244286028492801
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Well there's one still outstanding. The one where I was expecting charges.Slackbladder said:OGH and TSE breathe a huge sigh of relief as they don't have to worry about that anymore....
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Huh...the open file has only just been received from Kent Police? I thought Thanet was one of the first out of the blocks?0
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Poor old Smithson, what a shame. That kills the third thread in a row he had lined up.isam said:0 -
To me it's not her views as such that are a problem, but the competence of someone working in regulatory compliance who posts such things publicly on Facebook has to be questionable.Charles said:There's a difference between a politician/hanger-on and someone who is supposed to act independently in a potentially criminal investigation.
What would you think if a judge had made derogatory comments 5 years ago about one of your clients? Would you be happy that their views might have "long ago been abandoned"?0 -
I guess Theresa May doesn't need to fire the Chief Exec of the CPS now?
EDIT: Karl McCartney MP says she does need to at the Electoral Commission!
“It is clear that those who lead the Electoral Commission who followed and allowed this action to take place are politically-motivated and biased – actions that have rendered this organisation wholly unfit-for-purpose. In these circumstances, the positions of the Executive Team and Senior Management Group – from the Chief Executive down to her side-kick, Louise Edwards, who has spearheaded many, if not all, of these one-sided enquiries – are now untenable and I believe that they should resign forthwith.”0 -
I'm confused. Surely we've just discovered the show was run by a communist Corbynite and yet there are no charges? It's almost as if the entire public sector is not an anti-Tory conspiracy.CarlottaVance said:0 -
"One file, from Kent Police, was only recently received by the CPS, and remains under consideration. No inference as to whether any criminal charge may or may not be authorised in relation to this file should be drawn from this fact and we will announce our decision as soon as possible once we have considered the evidence in this matter."0
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TheScreamingEagles said:
Well there's one still outstanding. The one where I was expecting charges.Slackbladder said:OGH and TSE breathe a huge sigh of relief as they don't have to worry about that anymore....
Only because it was late, not because charges are expected.
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Anywhere were a lot of people earn more than £80K is gone in London.chestnut said:
I strongly suspect that Labour are hoovering up pointless Green votes in places like Hackney and Islington whilst losing them in more marginal suburban seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
The current state of the parties in London, according to YouGov’s study of 1,040 Londoners, is Labour on 41 per cent, down from their 43 per cent at the 2015 election, and Theresa May’s Conservatives on 36 per cent, up from 34.isam said:twitter.com/standardnews/status/862244286028492801
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Great work by Michael Crick.0
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I hope we can all give 3 cheers and let's have no smears against the judiciary doing its job.0
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I guess the fear for the Tories is that is announced say ohhh like a week before the GE....because isn't the time running out on that one?TheScreamingEagles said:"One file, from Kent Police, was only recently received by the CPS, and remains under consideration. No inference as to whether any criminal charge may or may not be authorised in relation to this file should be drawn from this fact and we will announce our decision as soon as possible once we have considered the evidence in this matter."
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I guess there's about a million odd votes there, plus the associated far left fringeschestnut said:
I strongly suspect that Labour are hoovering up pointless Green votes in places like Hackney and Islington whilst losing them in more marginal suburban seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
The current state of the parties in London, according to YouGov’s study of 1,040 Londoners, is Labour on 41 per cent, down from their 43 per cent at the 2015 election, and Theresa May’s Conservatives on 36 per cent, up from 34.isam said:twitter.com/standardnews/status/862244286028492801
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Story of this election is going to be the Labour vote holding up very well in certain areas of the country, but going off a cliff in other areas.isam said:0 -
It's ruined TSE's masterfully hyperbolic thread header -
'Corbyn to win by landslide thanks to Tory election fraud'.0 -
That's a fair point.williamglenn said:
To me it's not her views as such that are a problem, but the competence of someone working in regulatory compliance who posts such things publicly on Facebook has to be questionable.Charles said:There's a difference between a politician/hanger-on and someone who is supposed to act independently in a potentially criminal investigation.
What would you think if a judge had made derogatory comments 5 years ago about one of your clients? Would you be happy that their views might have "long ago been abandoned"?
But it seems to me that someone in her role has to be *seen* to be impartial as well as actually being impartial0 -
The decision to bill the expenditure centrally was surely taken at Tory HQ, with the local guys being essentially clueless? At worst they may have asked and perhaps were told not to worry about it by HQ. Tory HQ may have had a lucky escape, other than the fine.0
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Oh dear, poor Mark "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus" Pack will be so crestfallen:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/02/mark-pack-on-the-major-event-that-could-yet-derail-this-election/
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Labour looks set to lose at least four seats in London where the Ukip collapse is boosting the Conservatives, an exclusive Evening Standard analysis of the General Election fight in the capital reveals today.
A new YouGov poll of Londoners reveals Jeremy Corbyn’s party has gone into reverse in his home city since the 2015 election, slipping from a nine-point lead over the Conservatives to a gap of five points.
Our analysis of key seats, based on polling plus intelligence on the ground, suggests five London seats will change hands on June 8 - while another four are on a knife-edge.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-labour-to-lose-at-least-four-london-seats-as-party-goes-into-reverse-in-the-capital-a3535221.html0 -
Indeed but not a black swan of any sort now surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well there's one still outstanding. The one where I was expecting charges.Slackbladder said:OGH and TSE breathe a huge sigh of relief as they don't have to worry about that anymore....
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Crick is not having a good week...CommanderShepard said:Great work by Michael Crick.
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He hasn't had a good few years...we had the conspiracy over the Tories doing something dodgy with data in Crewe, we had his backing potty mouth minister which all went a bit squiffy, and now this.CommanderShepard said:Great work by Michael Crick.
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11 June.FrancisUrquhart said:
I guess the fear for the Tories is that is announced say ohhh like a week before the GE....because isn't the time running out on that one?TheScreamingEagles said:"One file, from Kent Police, was only recently received by the CPS, and remains under consideration. No inference as to whether any criminal charge may or may not be authorised in relation to this file should be drawn from this fact and we will announce our decision as soon as possible once we have considered the evidence in this matter."
Why might explain the timing of the election
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No, a communist Corbynite took it this far and once an independent organisation got it handed to them it stopped there.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'm confused. Surely we've just discovered the show was run by a communist Corbynite and yet there are no charges? It's almost as if the entire public sector is not an anti-Tory conspiracy.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The black swan was white after all.0
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Questions remain however, - CPS leaks to Michael Crick and what remains of his career...Sandpit said:Sky News: No charges, but one investigation remains open.
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splutter....Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, poor Mark "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus" Pack will be so crestfallen:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/02/mark-pack-on-the-major-event-that-could-yet-derail-this-election/0 -
The central party (along with other parties) got massive fines from the electoral commission for their own crap accounting at the last election.IanB2 said:The decision to bill the expenditure centrally was surely taken at Tory HQ, with the local guys being essentially clueless. At worst they may have asked and been told not to worry about it by HQ. Someone centrally should have had been in front of CPS and Tory HQ has had a lucky escape.
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Good old mens rea0
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So no boost for the LDs then and ironically given the only case left where charges may be brought is Thanet South the only party Crick might have boosted is UKIP who have perhaps been kept on life support as a result of this newsScrapheap_as_was said:0 -
Not remotely surprised, as I said from the time they were mooted. And I say this as someone who had some inside track on what has been going on. These "charges" were a result of very poor journalism from Crick - he did not seem to know that the individuals on the BattleBus were personally paying £50 a day for their accommodation - and some very pathetic attempts by losing candidates to smear their opponents with, frankly, rubbish claims.
They should have been chucked out on day one, but I suppose for the sake of transparency, they had to be looked at, so as not to have possibility of "cover-up" or "favour" being bandied around. But the cost has been massive. I have been told it was £1.5m to investigate one claim alone.
The way this matter has been bandied around for political advantage has been less than edifying. I trust people will now have the decency to let it drop, acknowledging that each of those candidates facing these questions has come out the process with nothing to answer for. Sure, there were failings, but each of the parties has had these - and been fined accordingly.0 -
More of a dead duckScrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but not a black swan of any sort now surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well there's one still outstanding. The one where I was expecting charges.Slackbladder said:OGH and TSE breathe a huge sigh of relief as they don't have to worry about that anymore....
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This has certainly shot C4's fox. Can't wait to see the mood on the news tonight. Has Crick gone into hiding?0
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No, not now that there'll be no decision during the campaign period.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but not a black swan of any sort now surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well there's one still outstanding. The one where I was expecting charges.Slackbladder said:OGH and TSE breathe a huge sigh of relief as they don't have to worry about that anymore....
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Respect to the CPS for doing this properly, by boring press release, and let us trust they would have done the same if charges were being brought. But many, including me, were appalled by their conduct in relation to the unlovely "Creases" Huhne, and said so. The point is not a partisan one.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'm confused. Surely we've just discovered the show was run by a communist Corbynite and yet there are no charges? It's almost as if the entire public sector is not an anti-Tory conspiracy.CarlottaVance said:0 -
That is almost as good as the Sion Simon article.Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, poor Mark "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus" Pack will be so crestfallen:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/02/mark-pack-on-the-major-event-that-could-yet-derail-this-election/0 -
'Always said that Louise Edwards is marvellously wise and judicious, won't hear a word against her, judgment of Solomon, sagacious, shrewd etc, etc'
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Nice to have it confirmed David Cameron and George Osborne won the 2015 general election fairly and squarely.0
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So this story turns out to just be crickbait then.
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There was clearly administrative failings. However that is far different from criminal intent.Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, poor Mark "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus" Pack will be so crestfallen:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/02/mark-pack-on-the-major-event-that-could-yet-derail-this-election/0 -
He also made some sweeping generalizations in loads of seats. He basically said here is my guess-estimate of what it would have cost for these people and then if I stick all that bill onto the local spending the Tories overspent.MarqueeMark said:Not remotely surprised, as I said from the time they were mooted. And I say this as someone who had some inside track on what has been going on. These "charges" were a result of very poor journalism from Crick - he did not seem to know that the individuals on the BattleBus were personally paying £50 a day for their accommodation - and some very pathetic attempts by losing candidates to smear their opponents with, frankly, rubbish claims.
They should have been chucked out on day one, but I suppose for the sake of transparency, they had to be looked at, so as not to have possibility of "cover-up" or "favour" being bandied around. But the cost has been massive. I have been told it was £1.5m to investigate one claim alone.
The way this matter has been bandied around for political advantage has been less than edifying. I trust people will now have the decency to let it drop, acknowledging that each of those candidates facing these questions has come out the process with nothing to answer for. Sure, there were failings, but each of the parties has had these - and been fined accordingly.0 -
but this was the reason for the May U-turn wasn't it, she was about to see 30 MPs banged up?AlastairMeeks said:The black swan was white after all.
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I rather suspect it's more that the timing of the election explains the date of the announcement.Charles said:
11 June.FrancisUrquhart said:
I guess the fear for the Tories is that is announced say ohhh like a week before the GE....because isn't the time running out on that one?TheScreamingEagles said:"One file, from Kent Police, was only recently received by the CPS, and remains under consideration. No inference as to whether any criminal charge may or may not be authorised in relation to this file should be drawn from this fact and we will announce our decision as soon as possible once we have considered the evidence in this matter."
Why might explain the timing of the election0 -
"People should be aware that making false claims about a candidate’s personal character and conduct is an electoral offence"0
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I have spoken to my nanotech guys about violin sizes, but they said something about the Planck length being an absolute lower bound.Richard_Nabavi said:Oh dear, poor Mark "we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus" Pack will be so crestfallen:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/02/mark-pack-on-the-major-event-that-could-yet-derail-this-election/0 -
The Greens managed just over 1m votes in England - but 700,000 of them are in London, East England, SE and SW.DanSmith said:
Story of this election is going to be the Labour vote holding up very well in certain areas of the country, but going off a cliff in other areas.isam said:
Corbyn will be pulling these in - but they are almost all stuck in ultra-safe, urban Labour seats or ultra-safe, suburban Tory seats.
It's likely to lead to increased inefficiency in the Labour vote.0 -
I spy OGH filing away his copy of the Contempt of Court Act 1981
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YouGov London poll: Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)0
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More of a dead duckScrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed but not a black swan of any sort now surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well there's one still outstanding. The one where I was expecting charges.Slackbladder said:OGH and TSE breathe a huge sigh of relief as they don't have to worry about that anymore....
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All those £80k workers not happy...IanB2 said:YouGov London poll: Con 36% (+2), Lab 41% (-2), LibDem 14% (+6), UKIP 6% (-2), Green 3% (-2)
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https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/862246282550706176Theuniondivvie said:'Always said Louise Edwards is marvellously wise and judicious, won't hear a word against her, judgment of Solomon, sagacious, shrewd etc, etc'
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Truly remarkable - the CPS believe that the returns were inacurate, the Electoral Commission fines the Tories but now no proceedings on the basis that none of these agents and candidates really know what was going on.
Really. What happened to the notion that ignorance of the law is no defence?0 -
So as so often a drama made up by the over exuberance of Michael Crick0
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Not much reaction on the spreads. Midpoints atm: spin 398-157-17.5, spreadex 401-157-18.50
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CPS had to prove criminal intent.scotslass said:Truly remarkable - the CPS believe that the returns were inacurate, the Electoral Commission fines the Tories but now no proceedings on the basis that none of these agents and candidates really know what was going on.
Really. What happened to the notion that ignorance of the law is no defence?0 -
As I said, the "intent" was probably at the centre, rather than locally.scotslass said:Truly remarkable - the CPS believe that the returns were inacurate, the Electoral Commission fines the Tories but now no proceedings on the basis that none of these agents and candidates really know what was going on.
Really. What happened to the notion that ignorance of the law is no defence?0 -
The key issue here really is the notion of local vs national spending is virtually impossible to work out in this digital age (and one where moving people around the country is trivial).
The authorities really need to consider how to adjust the rules for the modern age.0 -
Who has the biggest downer today - Smithson or Crick?0
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Jezza pitch, 50% increase in Corporation Tax...for ewucation.0
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http://www.markpack.org.uk/130283/internet-speeds-up-the-killing-off-of-expense-controls-in-marginal-seats/FrancisUrquhart said:The key issue here really is the notion of local vs national spending is virtually impossible to work out in this digital age (and one where moving people around the country is trivial).
The authorities really need to consider how to adjust the rules for the modern age.0 -
Just a 2% Labour to Conservative swing in a 60:40 Remain stronghold.
My rough and ready model of differential swing from the other day might not be too bad.0 -
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I haven't been following the CPS story with any real interest, it all seemed like a bit of a dud, and a bit straw-grasping. I doubt any more than 1 in 50 voters has actually even been aware of this story at all.0
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Just as well Eck's fat face can accommodate lots of egg:
http://www.thenational.scot/politics/15239293.Alex_Salmond__May_knew_she_was_going_to_lose_Tory_MPs_to_the_expenses_scandal_____that_s_the_real_reason_we_re_having_an_election/?ref=mrb&lp=110 -
I think the IndyRef in Scotland was a far bigger decision sealer.Scrapheap_as_was said:
but this was the reason for the May U-turn wasn't it, she was about to see 30 MPs banged up?AlastairMeeks said:The black swan was white after all.
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What on earth are you wittering on about?Jason said:It's ruined TSE's masterfully hyperbolic thread header -
'Corbyn to win by landslide thanks to Tory election fraud'.0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Jezza pitch, 50% increase in Corporation Tax...for education.
Given the people around him, he probably thinks it's desperately needed.
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BBC - It's understood a decison on whether to bring charges re South Thanet will be made before the election, possibly next week
Could still be rather awkward. A week before the GE would be rather unhelpful to say the least, taking a leaf out of Comey's book.0 -
C4 news were certainly hyping it up at every opportunity.Paristonda said:I haven't been following the CPS story with any real interest, it all seemed like a bit of a dud, and a bit straw-grasping. I doubt any more than 1 in 50 voters has actually even been aware of this story at all.
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It suggests SW London is more positive for the LDs than most of the PB pundits have been predicting.AlastairMeeks said:Just a 2% Labour to Conservative swing in a 60:40 Remain stronghold.
My rough and ready model of differential swing from the other day might not be too bad.0 -
Crick having a very bad day. Not only have the CPS declined to prosecute*, but he's getting a slapping from fellow journos over his (seemingly false) claim that the Tories were demanding questions in advance of granting an interview with TM.
* Not that this is a declaration of innocence, or anywhere close to it.0 -
So 14 police forces have the time and manpower to investigate possible technical infringements of electoral law, but are too busy to investigate a major outbreak of violent crime (20 cases a day) by moped gangs in London.
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That is not what the press release says. The standard of evidence for the Electoral Commission is to demonstrate that there was a breach of the regulations, for which they were fined. However, the standard of evidence for a criminal prosecution is much higher - it has to be proven that there was deliberate intent to knowingly breach the regulations.scotslass said:Truly remarkable - the CPS believe that the returns were inacurate, the Electoral Commission fines the Tories but now no proceedings on the basis that none of these agents and candidates really know what was going on.
Really. What happened to the notion that ignorance of the law is no defence?
The press release does not say that the agents and candidates did not know what was going - it says that they believed that these expenses could be allocated centrally, not locally, and so they did not report them. This made the returns "inaccurate" and subject to an EC fine, but there clearly weren't any "hoho, if we pretend we think these are central expenses we can avoid reporting them, bwahahah" emails; so no criminal prosecution.
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If so, LOL at the unintended consequences: CPS responsible for the beginning of the Thousand Year Reich because, subject to caveats about predictions and counterfactuals, there is no way that a 2020 election would have produced the outcome which this one is going to.Scrapheap_as_was said:
but this was the reason for the May U-turn wasn't it, she was about to see 30 MPs banged up?AlastairMeeks said:The black swan was white after all.
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Boom, boom...MarkHopkins said:
So this story turns out to just be crickbait then.0 -
This does bring into question C4's impartiality, and the amount of time and effort they put into this story. Some serious and searching questions have to be asked of a national, subsidised broadcaster.
BBC, Sky, etc, look like they're attending a wake at the moment.0 -
"Perhaps the CPS will decide not to prosecute. The CPS could come to a different view of the facts than the Commission. Or decide that although they think the law was broken that the only charges they can proceed on require proving a dishonest motivation and that won’t be possible. Certainly possible, but by no means certain."
I don't know who Mark Pack is but the quote above shows he did not leave himself out on a limb.0 -
I don't think that's a safe assumption. Inner city London is exactly where I'd expect to see the Lib Dems increasing their vote share. There are a lot of very disgruntled Remain voters in these parts. Moderate and temperate voters like me often get their ears bent by them.IanB2 said:
It suggests SW London is more positive for the LDs than most of the PB pundits have been predicting.AlastairMeeks said:Just a 2% Labour to Conservative swing in a 60:40 Remain stronghold.
My rough and ready model of differential swing from the other day might not be too bad.0 -
Do we know if the Thanet claims are specifically different? I thought it was all battle busses?FrancisUrquhart said:BBC - It's understood a decison on whether to bring charges re South Thanet will be made before the election, possibly next week
Could still be rather awkward. A week before the GE would be rather unhelpful to say the least, taking a leaf out of Comey's book.0 -
Milne = Wykehamist, which would lead to the conclusion that there is such a thing as too much education.MarkHopkins said:FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza pitch, 50% increase in Corporation Tax...for education.
Given the people around him, he probably thinks it's desperately needed.0 -
Faisal Islam (no fan of the Tories) just said on Sky that he had seen leaked emails where candidates / agents repeatedly asked CCHQ is this local or national spending with CCHQ replying national.mwadams said:
That is not what the press release says. The standard of evidence for the Electoral Commission is to demonstrate that there was a breach of the regulations, for which they were fined. However, the standard of evidence for a criminal prosecution is much higher - it has to be proven that there was deliberate intent to knowingly breach the regulations.scotslass said:Truly remarkable - the CPS believe that the returns were inacurate, the Electoral Commission fines the Tories but now no proceedings on the basis that none of these agents and candidates really know what was going on.
Really. What happened to the notion that ignorance of the law is no defence?
The press release does not say that the agents and candidates did not know what was going - it says that they believed that these expenses could be allocated centrally, not locally, and so they did not report them. This made the returns "inaccurate" and subject to an EC fine, but there clearly weren't any "hoho, if we pretend we think these are central expenses we can avoid reporting them, bwahahah" emails; so no criminal prosecution.0 -
franklyn
'So 14 police forces have the time and manpower to investigate possible technical infringements of electoral law, but are too busy to investigate a major outbreak of violent crime (20 cases a day) by moped gangs in London.'
Hopefully we get to find out how many police hours were wasted & what this nonsense has cost the taxpayer.
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I think we're looking forward to the next PB thread on it too.Scrapheap_as_was said:0
