politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron wins by an estimated 65.5 to 34.5%
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Well today just happens to be the 193rd anniversary of the premiere performance of Beethoven's ninth.Big_G_NorthWales said:Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.
Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country0 -
Yet Betfair has LP<35% as clear favourite with very good odds on >35%?HYUFD said:99% in
Macron 63.1%
Le Pen 36.9%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Blimey FN representative for North America. That's a smaller club than the Hartlepool Corbyn fanclub.0
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It'll be close imo, but Macron will be about 65.5% due to Paris.IanB2 said:
Yet Betfair has LP<35% as clear favourite with very good odds on >35%?HYUFD said:99% in
Macron 63.1%
Le Pen 36.9%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
For someone whose career was built on freeing Britain from the yoke of foreign influence, he spends most of his time sticking his nose into the affairs of other countries.The_Apocalypse said:
At CPAC he was talking about 'exciting elections in Europe this year.' It looks like none of them will actually go the way he wants them to when all is said and done.Stark_Dawning said:
Why does he think it's any of his business?Theuniondivvie said:Stop it Nigel, I've had far too much to drink already.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/8613222659248619520 -
about 82% of the votes are in. it will be very close on the 35% bandIanB2 said:
Yet Betfair has LP<35% as clear favourite with very good odds on >35%?HYUFD said:99% in
Macron 63.1%
Le Pen 36.9%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Brilliant choice of music in that dramatic entrance. They ended by singing La Marseillaise.Big_G_NorthWales said:Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.
Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country
The message is simple. I'm French and European. May not be music to many ears in Britain.0 -
Ignore this. It's not 99% of votes. 99 western isles with London to come.IanB2 said:
Yet Betfair has LP<35% as clear favourite with very good odds on >35%?HYUFD said:99% in
Macron 63.1%
Le Pen 36.9%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Well for sure I am not French no matter how you cut itsurbiton said:
Brilliant choice of music in that dramatic entrance. They ended by singing La Marseillaise.Big_G_NorthWales said:Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.
Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country
The message is simple. I'm French and European. May not be music to many ears in Britain.0 -
Fascist sympathisers and opportunists are not the real France. The real France is the France that carried on fighting with the Allies until the end - the resistance and the Free French.foxinsoxuk said:
We last fought the French in Nov 42 in Operation Torch. There were significant casualties on both sides.Disraeli said:
"Enemy" .......FFS man, we have been Allies against the "bad guys" for over a 100 years!HYUFD said:
The oldest enemy of Britain and especially England is France, we tend to do exactly the opposite of what they do eg when they had Mitterand we had Thatcher and Major, when they had Chirac and Sarkozy we had Blair and Brown, when they had Hollande and Macron we had Cameron and MayPulpstar said:People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.
Our last major conflict was the Napoleonic War over 200 years ago.
Vive La France!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/bookreviews/6121052/Englands-Last-War-Against-France-Fighting-Vichy-1940-1942.html
Now if you want a bit more of a grey area, try Italy which actually (and understandably) actually did a 180% turn and helped the Allies. Though I am convinced that the vast majority of Italians never wanted to be involved with Germany in the first place (though that could be bias on my part because I love Italy also).0 -
Ok thx. Clearly the betting markets expect her share to fall.OUT said:
Ignore this. It's not 99% of votes. 99 western isles with London to come.IanB2 said:
Yet Betfair has LP<35% as clear favourite with very good odds on >35%?HYUFD said:99% in
Macron 63.1%
Le Pen 36.9%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
The word Liberalism, can and has meant so many different things to different people at different times, Thant it is now best hyphenated i.e. classical liberalism social liberalism. That is partly why the word Libertarianism was created, and some Of us self identify that way rather than just liberal.Cyclefree said:
Liberalism in the French context is not the same as liberalism in the UK. There is very little tradition of classic liberalism in French politics. Don't assume that the same word means the same thing in a different context.foxinsoxuk said:
It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.Quincel said:
Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.Pulpstar said:People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.
I have never been so jealous of the French.
What I do find odd is that Macron is on record as saying that he does not think there is any such thing as French culture or even French art. A curious thing for a French politician to say. And how do you "include" people into a country if you do not think there is something for them to be included into.
A country is more than simply a geographical entity.
As Seamus Heaney put it in 2013:
“We are not simply a credit rating or an economy but a history and a culture, a human population rather than a statistical phenomenon.”
Surely that applies - in spades - to France?
I don't know a great deal about Macron, but the way you describe him he is sounding more and more like a Librarian to me.
Obviously the economically liberal AND Socially liberal, but more deeply what you quote him saying about art and culture, suggests he understands individualism on a more fundamental level. But hay I may be wrong.0 -
Though I would have preferred Melenchon or Hamon to this Blairite!The_Apocalypse said:0 -
Listening to the reporting it does seem to give a picture of a very divided country0
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France never wanted the UK in the EU in the first place, which is why De Gaulle vetoed UK entry into the EU. There is no love lost between France and the UK and there will be none in the Brexit talks eithersurbiton said:
Brilliant choice of music in that dramatic entrance. They ended by singing La Marseillaise.Big_G_NorthWales said:Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.
Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country
The message is simple. I'm French and European. May not be music to many ears in Britain.0 -
maquereau homophoneTheScreamingEagles said:
Oh, I love the French language.chrisb said:
https://twitter.com/GeraldineAmiel/status/861322920341233666TheScreamingEagles said:Surely a Royale with cheese?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/861320437363593216
But don't tell anyone.
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I have to ask: did you mean Librarian or Libertarian?BigRich said:
The word Liberalism, can and has meant so many different things to different people at different times, Thant it is now best hyphenated i.e. classical liberalism social liberalism. That is partly why the word Libertarianism was created, and some Of us self identify that way rather than just liberal.Cyclefree said:
Liberalism in the French context is not the same as liberalism in the UK. There is very little tradition of classic liberalism in French politics. Don't assume that the same word means the same thing in a different context.foxinsoxuk said:
It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.Quincel said:
Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.Pulpstar said:People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.
I have never been so jealous of the French.
What I do find odd is that Macron is on record as saying that he does not think there is any such thing as French culture or even French art. A curious thing for a French politician to say. And how do you "include" people into a country if you do not think there is something for them to be included into.
A country is more than simply a geographical entity.
As Seamus Heaney put it in 2013:
“We are not simply a credit rating or an economy but a history and a culture, a human population rather than a statistical phenomenon.”
Surely that applies - in spades - to France?
I don't know a great deal about Macron, but the way you describe him he is sounding more and more like a Librarian to me.
Obviously the economically liberal AND Socially liberal, but more deeply what you quote him saying about art and culture, suggests he understands individualism on a more fundamental level. But hay I may be wrong.
I hope it was Librarian...0 -
I don't think it will be.gettingbetter said:
about 82% of the votes are in. it will be very close on the 35% bandIanB2 said:
Yet Betfair has LP<35% as clear favourite with very good odds on >35%?HYUFD said:99% in
Macron 63.1%
Le Pen 36.9%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Almost everything bar Paris & met. cities left to report. Looks like 30-35 is the winner.0
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The context for his comments was against claims to French culture being used to divide people from each other. He was promoting values of multiculturalism that are somewhat unfashionable in these shores now. I found the last debate between Le Pen and Macron fascinating because despite the insults, there was a real battle of visions between the two candidates. This wasn't politicians manufacturing differences. Anyway, here's the full quote:Cyclefree said:Liberalism in the French context is not the same as liberalism in the UK. There is very little tradition of classic liberalism in French politics. Don't assume that the same word means the same thing in a different context.
What I do find odd is that Macron is on record as saying that he does not think there is any such thing as French culture or even French art. A curious thing for a French politician to say. And how do you "include" people into a country if you do not think there is something for them to be included into.
A country is more than simply a geographical entity.
As Seamus Heaney put it in 2013:
“We are not simply a credit rating or an economy but a history and a culture, a human population rather than a statistical phenomenon.”
Surely that applies - in spades - to France?
«You can't simply place our culture under house arrest. Then you wouldn't have a culture of all sorts. You wouldn't have this wonderful French wealth because you would have to deny a part of it. In any case there isn't a French culture. There is culture in France. A culture that is diverse and is multifaceted. I don't want to exclude particular authors, musicians and artists on the grounds that they come from somewhere else.»0 -
66.5 i reckonPulpstar said:
I don't think it will be.gettingbetter said:
about 82% of the votes are in. it will be very close on the 35% bandIanB2 said:
Yet Betfair has LP<35% as clear favourite with very good odds on >35%?HYUFD said:99% in
Macron 63.1%
Le Pen 36.9%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0
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I'm British and European.surbiton said:
Brilliant choice of music in that dramatic entrance. They ended by singing La arrangementBig_G_NorthWales said:Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.
Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country
The message is simple. I'm French and European. May not be music to many ears in Britain.
Just as I don't have to vote Tory to be a British patriot I don't have to be in favour of the EU to be a proud European.
Only the small-minded or the illiberal think that a country or continent can only be represented by one particular political party or political/bureaucratic arrangement.0 -
What are the terms of the bet? I'm curious but missed it.isam said:
@foxinsoxuk seems confident he is on the right side of it... but wont up the stakes. I will increase them by any amount he likes, and the offer is open to everybody else on the sitePulpstar said:
No lol I think you're definitely on the right side of that bet :>isam said:
Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?Pulpstar said:
Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.Quincel said:
Hartlepool too, surely.Pulpstar said:
Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.foxinsoxuk said:
Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?The_Apocalypse said:
Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.Disraeli said:
That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.The_Apocalypse said:https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056
Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.
Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
Next.0 -
Add 3.5 onto that and I'd be buying myself a nice new watch tomorrow.bigjohnowls said:
66.5 i reckonPulpstar said:
I don't think it will be.gettingbetter said:
about 82% of the votes are in. it will be very close on the 35% bandIanB2 said:
Yet Betfair has LP<35% as clear favourite with very good odds on >35%?HYUFD said:99% in
Macron 63.1%
Le Pen 36.9%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Will UKIP get 15% in any constituency?Philip_Thompson said:
What are the terms of the bet? I'm curious but missed it.isam said:
@foxinsoxuk seems confident he is on the right side of it... but wont up the stakes. I will increase them by any amount he likes, and the offer is open to everybody else on the sitePulpstar said:
No lol I think you're definitely on the right side of that bet :>isam said:
Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?Pulpstar said:
Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.Quincel said:
Hartlepool too, surely.Pulpstar said:
Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.foxinsoxuk said:
Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?The_Apocalypse said:
Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.Disraeli said:
That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.The_Apocalypse said:https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056
Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.
Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
Next.0 -
The first gaffe. A sad night for Francophiles.Big_G_NorthWales said:Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.
Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country0 -
The market thinks so. It's shortened right back again.Chameleon said:Almost everything bar Paris & met. cities left to report. Looks like 30-35 is the winner.
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Good for you.Cyclefree said:
I'm British and European.surbiton said:
Brilliant choice of music in that dramatic entrance. They ended by singing La arrangementBig_G_NorthWales said:Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.
Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country
The message is simple. I'm French and European. May not be music to many ears in Britain.
Just as I don't have to vote Tory to be a British patriot I don't have to be in favour of the EU to be a proud European.
Only the small-minded or the illiberal think that a country or continent can only be represented by one particular political party or political/bureaucratic arrangement.0 -
Fysics_Teacher said:
I have to ask: did you mean Librarian or Libertarian?BigRich said:
The word Liberalism, can and has meant so many different things to different people at different times, Thant it is now best hyphenated i.e. classical liberalism social liberalism. That is partly why the word Libertarianism was created, and some Of us self identify that way rather than just liberal.Cyclefree said:
Liberalism in the French context is not the same as liberalism in the UK. There is very little tradition of classic liberalism in French politics. Don't assume that the same word means the same thing in a different context.foxinsoxuk said:
It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.Quincel said:
Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.Pulpstar said:People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.
I have never been so jealous of the French.
What I do find odd is that Macron is on record as saying that he does not think there is any such thing as French culture or even French art. A curious thing for a French politician to say. And how do you "include" people into a country if you do not think there is something for them to be included into.
A country is more than simply a geographical entity.
As Seamus Heaney put it in 2013:
“We are not simply a credit rating or an economy but a history and a culture, a human population rather than a statistical phenomenon.”
Surely that applies - in spades - to France?
I don't know a great deal about Macron, but the way you describe him he is sounding more and more like a Librarian to me.
Obviously the economically liberal AND Socially liberal, but more deeply what you quote him saying about art and culture, suggests he understands individualism on a more fundamental level. But hay I may be wrong.
I hope it was Librarian...
LOL, the curses of Dyslexia sticks again!! it was meant to be Libertarian, but I admit Librarian would have been more amusing.
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Cyclefree said:
I'm British and European.surbiton said:
Brilliant choice of music in that dramatic entrance. They ended by singing La arrangementBig_G_NorthWales said:Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.
Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country
The message is simple. I'm French and European. May not be music to many ears in Britain.
Just as I don't have to vote Tory to be a British patriot I don't have to be in favour of the EU to be a proud European.
Only the small-minded or the illiberal think that a country or continent can only be represented by one particular political party or political/bureaucratic arrangement.
Hear! Hear!0 -
What are the odds?isam said:
Will UKIP get 15% in any constituency?Philip_Thompson said:
What are the terms of the bet? I'm curious but missed it.isam said:
@foxinsoxuk seems confident he is on the right side of it... but wont up the stakes. I will increase them by any amount he likes, and the offer is open to everybody else on the sitePulpstar said:
No lol I think you're definitely on the right side of that bet :>isam said:
Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?Pulpstar said:
Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.Quincel said:
Hartlepool too, surely.Pulpstar said:
Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.foxinsoxuk said:
Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?The_Apocalypse said:
Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.Disraeli said:
That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.The_Apocalypse said:https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056
Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.
Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
Next.0 -
Even moneyPhilip_Thompson said:
What are the odds?isam said:
Will UKIP get 15% in any constituency?Philip_Thompson said:
What are the terms of the bet? I'm curious but missed it.isam said:
@foxinsoxuk seems confident he is on the right side of it... but wont up the stakes. I will increase them by any amount he likes, and the offer is open to everybody else on the sitePulpstar said:
No lol I think you're definitely on the right side of that bet :>isam said:
Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?Pulpstar said:
Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.Quincel said:
Hartlepool too, surely.Pulpstar said:
Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.foxinsoxuk said:
Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?The_Apocalypse said:
Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.Disraeli said:
That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.The_Apocalypse said:https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056
Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.
Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
Next.0 -
And only the bloody-minded think that leaving the prevailing political manifestation of European identity to make a futile point about sovereignty has anything to do with patriotism.Cyclefree said:
I'm British and European.surbiton said:
Brilliant choice of music in that dramatic entrance. They ended by singing La arrangementBig_G_NorthWales said:Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.
Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country
The message is simple. I'm French and European. May not be music to many ears in Britain.
Just as I don't have to vote Tory to be a British patriot I don't have to be in favour of the EU to be a proud European.
Only the small-minded or the illiberal think that a country or continent can only be represented by one particular political party or political/bureaucratic arrangement.0 -
If it is 66.5 I could buy a new watch too. But it would be from Argos and not v nice at all.Chameleon said:
Add 3.5 onto that and I'd be buying myself a nice new watch tomorrow.bigjohnowls said:
66.5 i reckonPulpstar said:
I don't think it will be.gettingbetter said:
about 82% of the votes are in. it will be very close on the 35% bandIanB2 said:
Yet Betfair has LP<35% as clear favourite with very good odds on >35%?HYUFD said:99% in
Macron 63.1%
Le Pen 36.9%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Good to see Betfair settled Next President promptly.0
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Tim Farron has crossed off a friend from the Christmas card list.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-07/tim-farron-denies-he-was-a-thatcher-fan-as-a-teenager/0 -
Back in November, I was on Macron at 25/1. Thanks PB!!!!! Vive La France0
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The batches coming in are around 75% Macron. That'll increase as slow old Paris comes in to in the 80s. Plenty, the estimate was correct.bigjohnowls said:
66.5 i reckonPulpstar said:
I don't think it will be.gettingbetter said:
about 82% of the votes are in. it will be very close on the 35% bandIanB2 said:
Yet Betfair has LP<35% as clear favourite with very good odds on >35%?HYUFD said:99% in
Macron 63.1%
Le Pen 36.9%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Is there a market on who makes the most cringeworthy humblebrag regarding betting success on the French presidency?0
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QUite sure the exit has underestimated Macron. He will end up just over 66%.0
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ThreeQuidder said:
Good to see Betfair settled Next President promptly.
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Sounds like Tim might have been the original #MaggieThatcherFandr_spyn said:Tim Farron has crossed off a friend from the Christmas card list.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-07/tim-farron-denies-he-was-a-thatcher-fan-as-a-teenager/
Whatever happen MTF on here anyway?
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Will Jezza be "working" with Macron? When and on what one wonders...The_Apocalypse said:0 -
I've learnt a new word. Thank youisam said:Is there a market on who makes the most cringeworthy humblebrag regarding betting success on the French presidency?
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The Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) for week ending 7th May 2017.
8 polls, average:
Con 46.88 (+0.55)
Lab 28.50 (+0.39)
LD 9.75 (-0.47)
UKIP 6.75 (+0.08)
Tory lead 18.38 (+0.16)
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I'll pass thanks. I expect UKIP will fail to get 4% nationally but there may be the odd seat where they scrape 18%. I'd shake on a tenner evens odds at 20% if you're interested?isam said:
Even moneyPhilip_Thompson said:
What are the odds?isam said:
Will UKIP get 15% in any constituency?Philip_Thompson said:
What are the terms of the bet? I'm curious but missed it.isam said:
@foxinsoxuk seems confident he is on the right side of it... but wont up the stakes. I will increase them by any amount he likes, and the offer is open to everybody else on the sitePulpstar said:
No lol I think you're definitely on the right side of that bet :>isam said:
Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?Pulpstar said:
Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.Quincel said:
Hartlepool too, surely.Pulpstar said:
Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.foxinsoxuk said:
Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?The_Apocalypse said:
Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.Disraeli said:
That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.The_Apocalypse said:https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056
Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.
Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
Next.0 -
Well, that is a better list of what is in his CV and looks promising. I like the "Getting to yes" "getting past no" and "The power of a positive no" or as I would prefer to tell Juncker right now, "F*** off!"MTimT said:
He is the author of one of the prime texts on negotiation, Getting to Yes, and has written multiple other books on negotiation, including 'Getting Past No: Negotiating with Difficult People', and 'The Power of A Positive No'BenedictWhite said:
I'm not sure the CV as listed would help here though.
Having been a negotiator with the FCO for a number of years before going to business school where I studied his work, I can attest that I found many of the ideas from the academic study of negotiation analysis to have been profoundly useful, and wish I had known them earlier. Subsequently, in dealing with the Iraqis and their wmd programmes, I found his works again extremely useful and practical in dealing with Tariq Aziz, Gen Amer Rashid and Comical Ali.
I have no doubt that British Civil Servants could find a lot to learn from this gentleman.
0 -
I looked at that sentence and once I got thru the clauses I had to ask: are you seriously proposing the Queen cannot represent the UK? (...a country...can[not] only be represented by one...political/bureaucratic arrangement...). I assume this wasn't the interpretation you meant.Cyclefree said:Only the small-minded or the illiberal think that a country or continent can only be represented by one particular political party or political/bureaucratic arrangement.
0 -
I know, and I sympathise as my spelling is sufficiently bad that I frequently have to turn to my students to ask them how to spell a word on the board. Autocorrect is a real double-edged sword, but I would be stuffed without it.BigRich said:Fysics_Teacher said:
I have to ask: did you mean Librarian or Libertarian?BigRich said:
The word Liberalism, can and has meant so many different things to different people at different times, Thant it is now best hyphenated i.e. classical liberalism social liberalism. That is partly why the word Libertarianism was created, and some Of us self identify that way rather than just liberal.Cyclefree said:
Liberalism in the French context is not the same as liberalism in the UK. There is very little tradition of classic liberalism in French politics. Don't assume that the same word means the same thing in a different context.foxinsoxuk said:
It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.Quincel said:
Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.Pulpstar said:People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.
I have never been so jealous of the French.
What I do find odd is that Macron is on record as saying that he does not think there is any such thing as French culture or even French art. A curious thing for a French politician to say. And how do you "include" people into a country if you do not think there is something for them to be included into.
A country is more than simply a geographical entity.
As Seamus Heaney put it in 2013:
“We are not simply a credit rating or an economy but a history and a culture, a human population rather than a statistical phenomenon.”
Surely that applies - in spades - to France?
I don't know a great deal about Macron, but the way you describe him he is sounding more and more like a Librarian to me.
Obviously the economically liberal AND Socially liberal, but more deeply what you quote him saying about art and culture, suggests he understands individualism on a more fundamental level. But hay I may be wrong.
I hope it was Librarian...
LOL, the curses of Dyslexia sticks again!! it was meant to be Libertarian, but I admit Librarian would have been more amusing.0 -
Rivals yes but enemies, really.Disraeli said:
"Enemy" .......FFS man, we have been Allies against the "bad guys" for over a 100 years!HYUFD said:
The oldest enemy of Britain and especially England is France, we tend to do exactly the opposite of what they do eg when they had Mitterand we had Thatcher and Major, when they had Chirac and Sarkozy we had Blair and Brown, when they had Hollande and Macron we had Cameron and MayPulpstar said:People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.
Our last major conflict was the Napoleonic War over 200 years ago.
Vive La France!0 -
Precisely. Why doesn't Macron, just f-off and join the Tories.HYUFD said:
Though I would have preferred Melenchon or Hamon to this Blairite!The_Apocalypse said:
0 -
Really I had no idea what I was doing when a won some cash tonight, I just got lucky.isam said:Is there a market on who makes the most cringeworthy humblebrag regarding betting success on the French presidency?
0 -
Put the Tories +2 and Labour -2 and we're looking at a 20%+ Con victory on election night!Sunil_Prasannan said:The Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) for week ending 7th May 2017.
8 polls, average:
Con 46.88 (+0.55)
Lab 28.50 (+0.39)
LD 9.75 (-0.47)
UKIP 6.75 (+0.08)
Tory lead 18.38 (+0.16)
0 -
0
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I didn't know Macron was into jam making.GIN1138 said:
Will Jezza be "working" with Macron? When and on what one wonders...The_Apocalypse said:0 -
>99% of communes in
Macron 64.3%
Le Pen 35.7%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Scott Sinclair - Scottish footballer of the year - dear god, how bad must the game be up there?0
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Was it Thatchers Section 28 policy that Farron liked?dr_spyn said:Tim Farron has crossed off a friend from the Christmas card list.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-07/tim-farron-denies-he-was-a-thatcher-fan-as-a-teenager/0 -
Strongest batch yet for Macron, 78.7% !0
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Well it isn't so much Scottish Footballer of the Year, rather Celtic player of the year under a different name.chestnut said:Scott Sinclair - Scottish footballer of the year - dear god, how bad must the game be up there?
0 -
The thirteen year old you mean?Paristonda said:I hope this isn't anyone on the forum?!
https://twitter.com/ryxnf/status/8612997910991749120 -
Macron is certainly far too rightwing for Corbyn Labourrottenborough said:
Precisely. Why doesn't Macron, just f-off and join the Tories.HYUFD said:
Though I would have preferred Melenchon or Hamon to this Blairite!The_Apocalypse said:0 -
I think it's probably a bet but I'll hold on to see if @foxinsoxuk wants to up the stakes at 15%... he seems confident so he probably will when he sees thisPhilip_Thompson said:
I'll pass thanks. I expect UKIP will fail to get 4% nationally but there may be the odd seat where they scrape 18%. I'd shake on a tenner evens odds at 20% if you're interested?isam said:
Even moneyPhilip_Thompson said:
What are the odds?isam said:
Will UKIP get 15% in any constituency?Philip_Thompson said:
What are the terms of the bet? I'm curious but missed it.isam said:
@foxinsoxuk seems confident he is on the right side of it... but wont up the stakes. I will increase them by any amount he likes, and the offer is open to everybody else on the sitePulpstar said:
No lol I think you're definitely on the right side of that bet :>isam said:
Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?Pulpstar said:
Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.Quincel said:
Hartlepool too, surely.Pulpstar said:
Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.foxinsoxuk said:
Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?The_Apocalypse said:
Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.Disraeli said:
That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.The_Apocalypse said:https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056
Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.
Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.
Next.0 -
Isn't it 99% of communes reporting some results, but not necessarily final results? They may not have finished all counting. According to the Interior ministry site 86% of the count is complete.HYUFD said:>99% of communes in
Macron 64.3%
Le Pen 35.7%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0
0 -
You are making exactly the same mistake you made in the 1st round. Why do you think under 35% is 1,03 on Betfair?HYUFD said:>99% of communes in
Macron 64.3%
Le Pen 35.7%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
yes, with most of it in Paris. She is going down to 34% looks like.SouthamObserver said:
Isn't it 99% of communes reporting some results, but not necessarily final results? They may not have finished all counting. According to the Interior ministry site 86% of the count is complete.HYUFD said:>99% of communes in
Macron 64.3%
Le Pen 35.7%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
I'm sure no one here can think of any poster(s) who could be mistaken for a thirteen year old.Theuniondivvie said:
The thirteen year old you mean?Paristonda said:I hope this isn't anyone on the forum?!
https://twitter.com/ryxnf/status/8612997910991749120 -
When oh when are the bookmakers going to settle the Macron to win with over 60% of the vote/Trump to be POTUS//Leave to get 50-55%/Leicester for the 15/16 Prem quadruple? I'm fed up of waiting0
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Macron wants to reduce corporation tax from 35% to 25% just as Corbyn wants to put ours up to 28%.FrancisUrquhart said:
I didn't know Macron was into jam making.GIN1138 said:
Will Jezza be "working" with Macron? When and on what one wonders...The_Apocalypse said:
Corbyn's corporation tax proposals are about to hit the buffers0 -
I have had a very good election. I was on Macron as long as 23, and at an average of 11, and tipped him to top the first round. I re-invested that profit on the second round, weighted heavily onto the 30-35% band. I look to be up about £800.isam said:Is there a market on who makes the most cringeworthy humblebrag regarding betting success on the French presidency?
On top of that nice little earner, which goves me stake money for the GE, the winner is a politician that I actually like, and I have learned a lot about French politics.
In terms of turning back the tide of the alt.right "This is not the end. it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning"
Can I claim the prize?
PS, many thanks to @Chris_from_Paris whose late night tips made it all possible.0 -
Ghostbusters?nunu said:0 -
Questions to which the answer is don't hold your breath.
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/8613323771922350090 -
No, that's not a humblebragfoxinsoxuk said:
I have had a very good election. I was on Macron as long as 23, and at an average of 11, and tipped him to top the first round. I re-invested that profit on the second round, weighted heavily onto the 30-35% band. I look to be up about £800.isam said:Is there a market on who makes the most cringeworthy humblebrag regarding betting success on the French presidency?
On top of that nice little earner, which goves me stake money for the GE, the winner is a politicoan that I actually like, and I have learned a lot about French politics.
In terms of turning back the tide of the alt.right "This is not the end. it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning"
Can I claim the prize?
But you can invest all of it with me at Even money, ukip not to get 15% in any seat if you like0 -
-
I blame the parents....nunu said: 0 -
No thanks, I need my stake money for the GE.isam said:
No, that's not a humblebragfoxinsoxuk said:
I have had a very good election. I was on Macron as long as 23, and at an average of 11, and tipped him to top the first round. I re-invested that profit on the second round, weighted heavily onto the 30-35% band. I look to be up about £800.isam said:Is there a market on who makes the most cringeworthy humblebrag regarding betting success on the French presidency?
On top of that nice little earner, which goves me stake money for the GE, the winner is a politicoan that I actually like, and I have learned a lot about French politics.
In terms of turning back the tide of the alt.right "This is not the end. it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning"
Can I claim the prize?
But you can invest all of it with me at Even money, ukip not to get 15% in any seat if you like0 -
I was thinking of an earlier quote, on 22 February, to an audience in London when he said: "French culture does not exist, there is a culture in France and it is diverse".FF43 said:
The context for his comments was against claims to French culture being used to divide people from each other. He was promoting values of multiculturalism that are somewhat unfashionable in these shores now. I found the last debate between Le Pen and Macron fascinating because despite the insults, there was a real battle of visions between the two candidates. This wasn't politicians manufacturing differences. Anyway, here's the full quote:Cyclefree said:
Surely that applies - in spades - to France?
«You can't simply place our culture under house arrest. Then you wouldn't have a culture of all sorts. You wouldn't have this wonderful French wealth because you would have to deny a part of it. In any case there isn't a French culture. There is culture in France. A culture that is diverse and is multifaceted. I don't want to exclude particular authors, musicians and artists on the grounds that they come from somewhere else.»
And: "French art? I never met it!"
That is just vacuous and historical nonsense. The fact that some artists, writers etc may have been born elsewhere does not detract from the fact that there is French culture, French mores, French traditions, a certain French approach to intellectual thought, which makes France what it is - France, rather than, say, Ireland.
A culture is enriched in many ways but it is nonetheless a recognisable and coherent culture which makes a nation.
Multiculturalism - in its rather superficial "Isn't a rainbow lovely?" way - is a nonsense because rather than seeing a country as a home where all are part of the family, with a shared history, shared traditions, shared - if unspoken assumptions - about how we behave and with obligations to look after each other because we are "family" even (especially) if we don't like each other, sees a country as a hotel where people come and go, barely interact with each other and simply avail themselves of its services in return for financial contributions only.
I don't - as should be clear - share Le Pen's view of the world but I fear that Macron's tolerance is little more than an unwillingness to address the challenges which France faces from those who simply refuse to accept the idea of France at all and that this is motivated by fear and cowardice, however much people may like to dress it up. Easy to criticise Le Pen. Much harder to come up with a way of addressing the issues she raises. "We must be / are diverse" is trite banality, not an answer or a policy.
Macron needs to be something more than simply "not Le Pen".0 -
He's on 64.66% with 89% counted. If the rest is mainly Paris likely he'll finish on just over 65%, I guess.nunu said:
yes, with most of it in Paris. She is going down to 34% looks like.SouthamObserver said:
Isn't it 99% of communes reporting some results, but not necessarily final results? They may not have finished all counting. According to the Interior ministry site 86% of the count is complete.HYUFD said:>99% of communes in
Macron 64.3%
Le Pen 35.7%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0
0 -
Bloody foreigners....coming here and not speaking English.....BenedictWhite said:0 -
I just posted the results without comment, that is precisely what they are and it makes zero difference in reality whether Le Pen is on 34% or 35% beyond a few betters on it of whom I am not onebigjohnowls said:
You are making exactly the same mistake you made in the 1st round. Why do you think under 35% is 1,03 on Betfair?HYUFD said:>99% of communes in
Macron 64.3%
Le Pen 35.7%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
81.3% batch in for Macron !
At least 66% I think0 -
Who knows?GIN1138 said:
Will Jezza be "working" with Macron? When and on what one wonders...The_Apocalypse said:
4 weeks to go - the CPS yet to come....
(Long shot I know but never say never!)0 -
We've no idea is he can speak English, appears to be lacking in spelling though.nunu said:
Bloody foreigners....coming here and not speaking English.....BenedictWhite said:0 -
It's on credit so you still have your stake moneyfoxinsoxuk said:
No thanks, I need my stake money for the GE.isam said:
No, that's not a humblebragfoxinsoxuk said:
I have had a very good election. I was on Macron as long as 23, and at an average of 11, and tipped him to top the first round. I re-invested that profit on the second round, weighted heavily onto the 30-35% band. I look to be up about £800.isam said:Is there a market on who makes the most cringeworthy humblebrag regarding betting success on the French presidency?
On top of that nice little earner, which goves me stake money for the GE, the winner is a politicoan that I actually like, and I have learned a lot about French politics.
In terms of turning back the tide of the alt.right "This is not the end. it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning"
Can I claim the prize?
But you can invest all of it with me at Even money, ukip not to get 15% in any seat if you like0 -
It's not that long ago that most people in France didn't speak French. Multiculturalism can also mean Basque, Flemish, Provencal, Gascon, Corsican, Breton, Catalan etc Have you read The Discovery of France? If not, I really recommend it.Cyclefree said:
I was thinking of an earlier quote, on 22 February, to an audience in London when he said: "French culture does not exist, there is a culture in France and it is diverse".FF43 said:
The context for his comments was against claims to French culture being used to divide people from each other. He was promoting values of multiculturalism that are somewhat unfashionable in these shores now. I found the last debate between Le Pen and Macron fascinating because despite the insults, there was a real battle of visions between the two candidates. This wasn't politicians manufacturing differences. Anyway, here's the full quote:Cyclefree said:
Surely that applies - in spades - to France?
«You can't simply place our culture There is culture in France. A culture that is diverse and is multifaceted. I don't want to exclude particular authors, musicians and artists on the grounds that they come from somewhere else.»
And: "French art? I never met it!"
That is just vacuous and historical nonsense. The fact that some artists, writers etc may have been born elsewhere does not detract from the fact that there is French culture, French mores, French traditions, a certain French approach to intellectual thought, which makes France what it is - France, rather than, say, Ireland.
A culture is enriched in many ways but it is nonetheless a recognisable and coherent culture which makes a nation.
Multiculturalism - in its rather superficial "Isn't a rainbow lovely?" way - is a nonsense because rather than seeing a country as a home where all are part of the family, with a shared history, shared traditions, shared - if unspoken assumptions - about how we behave and with obligations to look after each other because we are "family" even (especially) if we don't like each other, sees a country as a hotel where people come and go, barely interact with each other and simply avail themselves of its services in return for financial contributions only.
I don't - as should be clear - share Le Pen's view of the world but I fear that Macron's tolerance is little more than an unwillingness to address the challenges which France faces from those who simply refuse to accept the idea of France at all and that this is motivated by fear and cowardice, however much people may like to dress it up. Easy to criticise Le Pen. Much harder to come up with a way of addressing the issues she raises. "We must be / are diverse" is trite banality, not an answer or a policy.
Macron needs to be something more than simply "not Le Pen".
0 -
I maintain he'd find it easier if there are no charges - he can rail against a system rigged to let the Tories off, rather than be restricted in how much he can say if charges are brought.murali_s said:
Who knows?GIN1138 said:
Will Jezza be "working" with Macron? When and on what one wonders...The_Apocalypse said:
4 weeks to go - the CPS yet to come....
(Long shot I know but never say never!)
But from what we hear about Thanet, I'd be amazed if there are no charges at all.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDqVDw9qfH4Big_G_NorthWales said:
Macron wants to reduce corporation tax from 35% to 25% just as Corbyn wants to put ours up to 28%.FrancisUrquhart said:
I didn't know Macron was into jam making.GIN1138 said:
Will Jezza be "working" with Macron? When and on what one wonders...The_Apocalypse said:
Corbyn's corporation tax proposals are about to hit the buffers0 -
Farron was 9 years old, and when Maggie was at the height of her powers, he joined the Liberal party in 1986.FrancisUrquhart said:
Was it Thatchers Section 28 policy that Farron liked?dr_spyn said:Tim Farron has crossed off a friend from the Christmas card list.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-07/tim-farron-denies-he-was-a-thatcher-fan-as-a-teenager/
Being a Maggie fan doesn't really match what we know of him.0 -
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No thanks. Keeping gambling from becoming an addiction is all about sticking to one's limits.isam said:
It's on credit so you still have your stake moneyfoxinsoxuk said:
No thanks, I need my stake money for the GE.isam said:
No, that's not a humblebragfoxinsoxuk said:
I have had a very good election. I was on Macron as long as 23, and at an average of 11, and tipped him to top the first round. I re-invested that profit on the second round, weighted heavily onto the 30-35% band. I look to be up about £800.isam said:Is there a market on who makes the most cringeworthy humblebrag regarding betting success on the French presidency?
On top of that nice little earner, which goves me stake money for the GE, the winner is a politicoan that I actually like, and I have learned a lot about French politics.
In terms of turning back the tide of the alt.right "This is not the end. it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning"
Can I claim the prize?
But you can invest all of it with me at Even money, ukip not to get 15% in any seat if you like0 -
64.82% with 90% counted.0
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TBH so was Lenin :-)HYUFD said:
Macron is certainly far too rightwing for Corbyn Labourrottenborough said:
Precisely. Why doesn't Macron, just f-off and join the Tories.HYUFD said:
Though I would have preferred Melenchon or Hamon to this Blairite!The_Apocalypse said:0 -
You are Jeremy Clarkson and I claim my £5.Sunil_Prasannan said:
English is probably the best language in the world!bobajobPB said:
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.Mortimer said:
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....midwinter said:
0
This discussion has been closed.