politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron wins by an estimated 65.5 to 34.5%

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

That NY Times map is beautiful.

It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.

At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.

Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.

Odds on Le Pen 30-35 marginally drifting from 1.07 to 1.15.

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.

People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

French embassy in Washington reporting Macron polled 92% of 300k eligible ex-pats.

Macron coming out to a big crowd in the Louvre now to 'Ode to Joy' in a blatant copy of Obama 2008 in Grant Park, Chicago

Pulpstar said:

People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.

Black_Rook said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

That NY Times map is beautiful.

It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.

At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.

Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.

If the 48% can be ignored, so can the 34%.

Pulpstar said:

People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

The oldest enemy of Britain and especially England is France, we tend to do exactly the opposite of what they do eg when they had Mitterand we had Thatcher and Major, when they had Chirac and Sarkozy we had Blair and Brown, when they had Hollande and Macron we had Cameron and May

viewcode said:

Would I be immodest if I reminded everybody that this result means I continue my unbroken record on winning every[1] political bet I have ever placed?

Why yes. Yes it would.

[1] 2012 London Mayor, 2012 French Presidential, 2016 London Mayor, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Potus, 2017 French Presidential

"Not bad for a human!"

Chameleon said:

35-40 has come in massively from 15/20 down to 5. Is there a way to see the quantities being matched to make sure that this isn't one high roller?

I estimate it will be 35.05% based on 34.3 m votes

gettingbetter said:

Chameleon said:

35-40 has come in massively from 15/20 down to 5. Is there a way to see the quantities being matched to make sure that this isn't one high roller?

I estimate it will be 35.05% based on 34.3 m votes

May you live long and be right.

Pulpstar said:

Paris 92.7% Macron, starting to trickle in now.

Where are you seeing the Paris %ins?

Thanks to all for your comments on my article earlier today.

On a personal level I don't particularly like Macron. But that's because he reminds me too much of the smooth but essentially vacuous investment bankers I've spent too much time with. But infinitely better than Le Pen.

I doubt France will reform in any meaningful way. Too many vested interests. And no real will to do so. (Ditto with the EU.) And "reform" in the French context means something quite different to what we might understand. France is still a statist top down country, which provides a very good life for those on the inside track but a shit life for anyone who isn't.

What's worrying is that a third (or more) of French voters did vote for Le Pen (double her father's vote) and that there may not be any serious analysis of why they did so and what might sensibly be done to alleviate their concerns.

"Phew! We won." is not sensible politics.

But too often it is the - complacent - response. The emphasis should be less on the welcome defeat of Le Pen and more on what needs to be done to get those voters on your side.

Voters are not an optional extra in a democracy.

As I put it in my article published last Sunday: " Populist – but toxic – parties provide an easy excuse for mainstream parties and less uncouth politicians to ignore difficult problems until they force themselves onto the national stage, with unpredictable consequences."

The test for Macron is whether he is willing and able to address the problems which led to someone like Le Pen getting as many votes as she has.

I hope he does because France is a country I love, which has been tormented by barbarians in recent years.

And now for a bad Sunday night pun: Macaron has taken the biscuit.

**.......just putting on my coat......**

foxinsoxuk said:

Quincel said:

Pulpstar said:

People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.

It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

I have never been so jealous of the French.

It will last a month, until the May landslide brings reality home

foxinsoxuk said:

Black_Rook said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

That NY Times map is beautiful.

It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.

At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.

Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.

If the 48% can be ignored, so can the 34%.

The referendum was a one-off, whereas elections keep happening on a regular cycle. If the issues that resulted in a third of the electorate voting for Le Pen are not successfully addressed, then she or a successor could do better next time, and the time after that, until...

foxinsoxuk said:

Quincel said:

Pulpstar said:

People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.

It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

I have never been so jealous of the French.

And the Macron bar charts are so stylish too ....

Pulpstar said:

Chameleon said:

Pulpstar said:

Paris 92.7% Macron, starting to trickle in now.

Where are you seeing the Paris %ins?

NY Times website.

Can you shoot a link over please?

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Quincel said:

Pulpstar said:

People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.

It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

I have never been so jealous of the French.

It will last a month, until the May landslide brings reality home

I suspect that then I will be even more envious of our nearest neighbour.

This was posted earlier and is absolutely fabulous for following the results. NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=0

https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/861321291797745664

.

foxinsoxuk said:

Black_Rook said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

That NY Times map is beautiful.

It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.

At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.

Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.

If the 48% can be ignored, so can the 34%.

The 52% took time to grow from 34%.

foxinsoxuk said:

Black_Rook said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

That NY Times map is beautiful.

It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.

At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.

Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.

If the 48% can be ignored, so can the 34%.

You beat me to it +1

gettingbetter said:

Quite a bit to come from Bouches de Rhone too isn't there? That will help the Le Pen %age

Not by much though.

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

The oldest enemy of Britain and especially England is France, we tend to do exactly the opposite of what they do eg when they had Mitterand we had Thatcher and Major, when they had Chirac and Sarkozy we had Blair and Brown, when they had Hollande and Macron we had Cameron and May

"Enemy" .......FFS man, we have been Allies against the "bad guys" for over a 100 years!
Our last major conflict was the Napoleonic War over 200 years ago.

Vive La France!

isam said:

https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/861321291797745664

POMLPWAS

Paris starting to fill in. Lets hope the Melonachon vote stayed at home.

AnneJGP said:

.

foxinsoxuk said:

Black_Rook said:

chestnut said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

That NY Times map is beautiful.

It is indeed. Very blue, and not just in the metropolis.

At the risk of generating a reactionary comment and being accused of cheerleading for Le Pen, hover the cursor over it and look at the percentages in each district.

Look at the areas facing the Med and the English Channel, living in Corsica, bordering Belgium and in the doughnut around Paris.

Amidst the tidal wave of relief over the Macron victory, it's all too easy for people (who tend to have short memories and even shorter attention spans nowadays) to forget that neither Madame Le Pen, nor the problems which led to her rise, have gone away.

Reminding people that Le Pen won over a third of the vote, and did a good deal better in some districts and amongst certain voter groups, doesn't constitute cheerleading. It is the prudent avoidance of hubris.

If the 48% can be ignored, so can the 34%.

The 52% took time to grow from 34%.

Well exactly. First hubris, then nemesis.

The_Apocalypse said:

Disraeli said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.

Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.

Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?

Pulpstar said:

gettingbetter said:

Quite a bit to come from Bouches de Rhone too isn't there? That will help the Le Pen %age

Yeah but I think alot from Toulouse as well.

Wish we had those error bars, don't really have the confidence to lump anything.

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Disraeli said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.

Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.

Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?

Did you reply to my offer to up our bet from £20 to £100?

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Disraeli said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.

Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.

Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?

Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.

Next.

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Disraeli said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.

Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.

Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?

Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.

Next.

Hartlepool too, surely.

Surely a Royale with cheese?

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/861320437363593216

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Disraeli said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.

Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.

Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?

Hope not!

I'm thinking we may have to have our own En Marche in this country if the left want to get back to being relevant again. We'll what happens after June 8th, but if the Labour membership don't tell Corbyn where to go, it's time for Labour to split, set up a new political party, and let the Labour party taken over by the hard left die.

If Labour do as badly as predicted, I am sure Corbyn will go - he wants the Labour brand, but because it is strong - if the party splits and some British 'En March' tries to take its place and immediately takes along dozens of his MPs, all the work he's tried in his leadership will have been for naught.

Stop it Nigel, I've had far too much to drink already.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/861322265924861952

Quincel said:

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Disraeli said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.

Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.

Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?

Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.

Next.

Hartlepool too, surely.

Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.

Pulpstar said:

Quincel said:

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Disraeli said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.

Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.

Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?

Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.

Next.

Hartlepool too, surely.

Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.

Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?

foxinsoxuk said:

Quincel said:

Pulpstar said:

People won't care about this in Britain in the main, but perhaps could lead to a bit of a Lib Dem surge in London.
Maybe. Farron is no Macron though.

Sadly I just don't think many people will even notice the french election, fewer still will be sufficiently affected to influence their vote.

It will alter the mood though. An economic liberal, social liberal, advocate of inclusion and unashamedly proud European is now in charge of our nearest neighbour.

I have never been so jealous of the French.

Liberalism in the French context is not the same as liberalism in the UK. There is very little tradition of classic liberalism in French politics. Don't assume that the same word means the same thing in a different context.

What I do find odd is that Macron is on record as saying that he does not think there is any such thing as French culture or even French art. A curious thing for a French politician to say. And how do you "include" people into a country if you do not think there is something for them to be included into.

A country is more than simply a geographical entity.

As Seamus Heaney put it in 2013:

“We are not simply a credit rating or an economy but a history and a culture, a human population rather than a statistical phenomenon.”

Surely that applies - in spades - to France?

chrisb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surely a Royale with cheese?

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/861320437363593216

https://twitter.com/GeraldineAmiel/status/861322920341233666

Oh, I love the French language.

But don't tell anyone.

Pulpstar said:

63.5%16,534,480 votes
9,484,723 votes 36.5%

Lets check how the next jump in numbers comes in

I still think that this may be close.

Theuniondivvie said:

Stop it Nigel, I've had far too much to drink already.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/861322265924861952

Why does he think it's any of his business?

Stark_Dawning said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Stop it Nigel, I've had far too much to drink already.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/861322265924861952

Why does he think it's any of his business?

At CPAC he was talking about 'exciting elections in Europe this year.' It looks like none of them will actually go the way he wants them to when all is said and done.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mark Stone of Sky who seems to support the EU just said that Macron's choice of 'ode to joy ' to walk to the stage was very strange as it would have angered as many as supported it.

Is this really going to unite France or prove to be divisive within the Country

Macron's clearly a Die Hard fan.

Chameleon said:

Pulpstar said:

Chameleon said:

Pulpstar said:

63.5%16,534,480 votes
9,484,723 votes 36.5%

Lets check how the next jump in numbers comes in

I still think that this may be close.

63.6%16,742,692 votes

Centrist, supports the E.U.

Marine Le Pen

9,574,692 votes36.4%

208212 votes in for Macron
89969 for Le Pen

So 69.8% of the new mix.

New batch in.

72.8% for Macron.

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

Quincel said:

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Disraeli said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/861262643159597056

Some of these alt-righters/Trumpers in America are not TOO happy with tonight's results.

That only increases my pleasure at Macron's victory even more.

Yep. Hilarious to see these alt-righters in meltdown. We've got our elections next month and the German elections coming in September. Let's hope the trend of sensible election results keeps going. Corbyn and his merry gang need to be roundly defeated, and his stupid tweet that doesn't even congratulate Macron tells you all you need to know about him. Hopefully UKIP's downtard trend will continue as well.

Wishing Merkel best of luck in Germany too.

Will UKIP even keep a deposit anywhere?

Yes. Boston & Skegness, Professor Nuttall will bust your bet with @isam. People will know its safe to vote kipper there as Labour have less than zero chance there.

Next.

Hartlepool too, surely.

Yep they'll keep deposit there but the Tories will take enough of the vote to win.

Do you want to price up ukip under over 15% in Thurrock? Or Dagenham?

No lol I think you're definitely on the right side of that bet :>

@foxinsoxuk seems confident he is on the right side of it... but wont up the stakes. I will increase them by any amount he likes, and the offer is open to everybody else on the site