politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron wins by an estimated 65.5 to 34.5%
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We have decided to have another go with the Continental System that failed for Napoleon.williamglenn said:Leave.EU has tweeted 'RIP France'. They're not taking it well that their dream of destroying the EU looks to be over. The reality is a strong EU on our doorstep that we won't be part of anymore.
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a number most certainly did - though, by and large, they seem to be in hiding tonight.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
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Nobody is bullying anyone. Asking dog whistling trolls to state their forecast is not bullying. It's a betting site.ThreeQuidder said:
That's no excuse for a PBer bullying another.midwinter said:
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.
Regarding Mortimer's post – he does that joke regularly. As I have already pointed out, I take it in jest. After all, who cares? One 'multiple screen namer' (Tissue_Price) is now standing as a Tory parliamentary candidate. I hope his dark past doesn't come back to haunt him!0 -
Btw NYT has a pretty map:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html0 -
Do we have actual figures on that? Wouldn't null votes have to be around ~50% for that to be the case?foxinsoxuk said:0 -
He is nicer in person, but I too am baffled by the constant childish "guilt by association" jibes. Where does it get anyone? Even if everyone who voted Leave said they regretted it because a tiny proportion of them thinks Le Pen is better for UK than Macron... so what?ab195 said:
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.0 -
but the left couldnt spot CorbynSouthamObserver said:
And now he has been embraced by the far right. Farage is his new best buddy. Funnily enough, WikiLeaks never seems able to hack into the emails of far right groups.AlsoIndigo said:
Pfft Assange was all the rage on the Left when he looked like some struggling heroically against The Man, all those nice left leaning celebs contributing to his fighting fund. It was only when he cronies started spilling the beans about left wing organisations and causes that the shine rapidly came off.ydoethur said:
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.williamglenn said:
It gives you hope.
Some of us on the left could see he was a wrong 'un all along.
chortle0 -
Arrgh where is the error bar job that was so good for in running in the first round0
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7 out of 107 departments. 68 - 320
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Ooh. pretty map!brokenwheel said:Btw NYT has a pretty map:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html0 -
If you read what I wrote, I was urging Leavers to accept a problem that is endemic among their number (and then I suggest that they should consider what can be done about addressing it). Far too many Leavers regard Brexit as so important that anything that might assist it, no matter how tangentially and no matter what the consequences, is to be adopted. You might not see that as a problem. I see it as one of the most dangerous trends of current politics.ab195 said:
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.
You should note that only one of us is anonymous.0 -
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.0 -
Apparently he has had a meeting, we do not know who initiated the meeting, and his current status is that he has not been engaged by HMG.williamglenn said:More proof of amateur hour at HMG.
https://twitter.com/davidwooding/status/861291917165961218
That said, we are in a hostile and indeed ridiculous negotiating position so it wouldn't hurt to get some advice. I'm not sure the CV as listed would help here though.
On the subject of Le Pen, I did expect her to loose but by a smaller margin.0 -
No, simply pointing out to someone trying to denigrate the turnout today in France that it was still better than we will get next month.felix said:
Absolutely - the British people are just the scum of the earth and the French the saviours of Europe. There that makes you feel better doesn't it.OllyT said:chestnut said:
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
Sounds like your the one working up to a tantrum as the wheels continue to come off the anti-EU bandwagon elsewhere. Germany next - what did happen to that AfD surge?0 -
Then as now, the America Firsters, Vichy sympathisers & Mosleyites would have hated it.bobajobPB said:
One of the greatest two minutes of film in cinematic historyTheuniondivvie said:0 -
Merkel's trip to the US and the way Trump behaved have clearly provided a big boost to her.
Yes it looks like Merkel's personal popularity gave a significant boost to the CDU.
https://twitter.com/pbergsen/status/8612628697191137280 -
At least it isn't PwC responsible for counting the votes:JackW said:
Dianne Abbott is counting the votes ....alex. said:They haven't got anyone to count the votes?
Ooppps ....
Hello President Le Pen .....
Macron giving his victory speech - "Guys, guys, I’m sorry, no, there’s a mistake. Madame Le Pen, you won the Presidency."0 -
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazersmidwinter said:
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/8600282501810544640 -
I thought Le Pen would win 98-2
Sorry if the lack of this info naused anyones betting0 -
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.Alanbrooke said:
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
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OK,,,that's cool. Think Boba can be forgiven a bit of good old fashioned virtue signalling in the heat of the moment though. And Moniker is a bit odd.Mortimer said:
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....midwinter said:0 -
Let me be. The fascist got thumped!Sunil_Prasannan said:Who will be the first PBer to brand 35% of the French electorate "Fascist"?
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Come off it you were gagging for Le Pen to do well on the final debate thread.chestnut said:
You wally.OllyT said:chestnut said:
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
A French election is nothing more than mild amusement to me.
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Bye bye UKIP, you won't be missed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazersmidwinter said:
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/8600282501810544640 -
Some of us could. Jezza was (is) an Assange fan, of course.Alanbrooke said:
but the left couldnt spot CorbynSouthamObserver said:
And now he has been embraced by the far right. Farage is his new best buddy. Funnily enough, WikiLeaks never seems able to hack into the emails of far right groups.AlsoIndigo said:
Pfft Assange was all the rage on the Left when he looked like some struggling heroically against The Man, all those nice left leaning celebs contributing to his fighting fund. It was only when he cronies started spilling the beans about left wing organisations and causes that the shine rapidly came off.ydoethur said:
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.williamglenn said:
It gives you hope.
Some of us on the left could see he was a wrong 'un all along.
chortle
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Congratulations to all who made money on Macron. If En Marche does win a majority next month, he could be a strong and charismatic leader somewhere between Blair and Putin. Imagine a France in which all or most government ministers are in the newly-created "president's party". Unlikely, but so was a Macron presidency only little more than a year ago.
Control what editors put in the media and you usually control a country. Le Pen wiped the floor with Macron in the TV debate, in which he was mostly reduced to repeatedly saying "You're lying", but received opinion was that the opposite occurred. The line was that the Rothschild-trained and Jesuit-handled granny botherer put on a splendid performance and came into his own as an oratorically superb ring fighter. The soundbite that a woman was certainly going to run France and the only question was whether it would be Marine Le Pen or Angela Merkel...who remembers that now? Oh how wonderfully Macron did. What did he say? Er, don't remember.
So...that's half of what I made on Leave and Trump gone up in smoke!
I will now look for lower risk investments unconnected with political betting. I wish this site well!
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no it isntSouthamObserver said:
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.Alanbrooke said:
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
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Con gain Bootle?Alanbrooke said:
no it isntSouthamObserver said:
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.Alanbrooke said:
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool0 -
Alastair was pointing out facts, that's not a particular nasty thing to do.ab195 said:
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.
Do you not see a correlation between Leavers, Trump and Le Pen supporters. Obviously it's not anywhere near 100%, but it looks closer than random.0 -
Wasn't the same said about the Tories and Cameron?hoveite said:
Yes it looks like Merkel's personal popularity gave a significant boost to the CDU.
https://twitter.com/pbergsen/status/861262869719113728
On that topic, glad to see the CDU/CSU are bouncing back in the polls:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_20170 -
Since TMay seems pretty committed to a hard brexit (probably out of realisation its the most likely option), UKIP do seem bereft of ideas and going fully nuts on such topics seems the direction they've chosen.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazersmidwinter said:
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
AS UKIP's plummeting support shows, most people don't support that positioning.0 -
The AfD has seen its support fall in the national polls too. Under 10% now nationwide.Alanbrooke said:
no it isntSouthamObserver said:
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.Alanbrooke said:
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
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Did anyone read the Rallings and Thrasher piece on the local elections in the Sunday Times ?
Aside from not mentioning their own shite predictions they were extrapolating general election results from the Greater Manchester mayoral election.
And some people wonder why 'experts' are treated with scepticism.
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If MLP drops below 30 I'll be cross.surbiton said:7 out of 107 departments. 68 - 32
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Consider how it looks. You come over as attempting to be hurtful. You'll never persuade anyone that way. And if your identity is widely known you'll be offending people before you've even met them.AlastairMeeks said:
If you read what I wrote, I was urging Leavers to accept a problem that is endemic among their number (and then I suggest that they should consider what can be done about addressing it). Far too many Leavers regard Brexit as so important that anything that might assist it, no matter how tangentially and no matter what the consequences, is to be adopted. You might not see that as a problem. I see it as one of the most dangerous trends of current politics.ab195 said:
What a vile, bitter man you seem to be. It's all about identifying people with their "tribes" for you isn't it? If it isn't a "tribe" you approve of, you pick an unpleasant feature from a minority of that group and ascribe it to the rest. That's not a very nice to behave, and I think you should do some deep thinking.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
Thankfully this is an anonymous blog and you might be nicer in person. I do hope so.
You should note that only one of us is anonymous.
On the broader point I am acutely aware that some portion of those who voted on that side are unpleasant. But that's true of any vote. Usually one can be on one side of one argument, and another side of the the next, forming different coalitions as you go. You seem to be implying that you won't ever support anyone who voted Leave on anything else on the basis that they are tarred with a certain brush. That's odd, and unhealthy.
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Jees so will Ipaulyork64 said:
If MLP drops below 30 I'll be cross.surbiton said:7 out of 107 departments. 68 - 32
Sampling won't be that far out though0 -
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazersmidwinter said:
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/8600282501810544640 -
She about doubled her father's total in 2002, she lost for now but she did manage to increase her first round vote in a way her father would never have donemurali_s said:
Let me be. The fascist got thumped!Sunil_Prasannan said:Who will be the first PBer to brand 35% of the French electorate "Fascist"?
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Popped £2 on Le Pen below 30% at 490-1, just in case for whatever reason things go spectacularly wrong for Le Pen.paulyork64 said:
If MLP drops below 30 I'll be cross.surbiton said:7 out of 107 departments. 68 - 32
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I did.another_richard said:Di anyone read the Rallings and Thrasher piece on the local elections in the Sunday Times ?
Aside from not mentioning their own shite predictions they were extrapolating general election results from the Greater Manchester mayoral election.
And some people wonder why 'experts' are treated with scepticism.
In their defence, prior to 2016 their stuff was pretty good.
Since Corbyn became Labour leader, he's well and truly screwed political modelling and forecasting.
Honestly, could you imagine typing this the other day
1) Andy Burnham won Trafford
or
2) The Tories won The Tees Valley Mayoral.
Yet both happened.0 -
Same, worth doing whilst it is cheap :>Chameleon said:
Popped £2 on Le Pen below 30% at 490-1, just in case for whatever reason things go spectacularly wrong for Le Pen.paulyork64 said:
If MLP drops below 30 I'll be cross.surbiton said:7 out of 107 departments. 68 - 32
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"I will defend Europe..." - Macron0
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Last time I checked there was a secret ballot. While they may not be overt in their support, there is nothing stopping them doing whatever they want in the privacy of the voting booth.midwinter said:
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazersmidwinter said:
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/8600282501810544640 -
Can cover that very easily by putting £2 at 440s on Betfair. When it loses, no bad net effect, if it wins you'll be have blackjack and hookers for days.Pulpstar said:
Jees so will Ipaulyork64 said:
If MLP drops below 30 I'll be cross.surbiton said:7 out of 107 departments. 68 - 32
Sampling won't be that far out though0 -
No need to depart.Cyan said:Congratulations to all who made money on Macron. If En Marche does win a majority next month, he could be a strong and charismatic leader somewhere between Blair and Putin. Imagine a France in which all or most government ministers are in the newly-created "president's party". Unlikely, but so was a Macron presidency only little more than a year ago.
Control what editors put in the media and you usually control a country. Le Pen wiped the floor with Macron in the TV debate, in which he was mostly reduced to repeatedly saying "You're lying", but received opinion was that the opposite occurred. The line was that the Rothschild-trained and Jesuit-handled granny botherer put on a splendid performance and came into his own as an oratorically superb ring fighter. The soundbite that a woman was certainly going to run France and the only question was whether it would be Marine Le Pen or Angela Merkel...who remembers that now? Oh how wonderfully Macron did. What did he say? Er, don't remember.
So...that's half of what I made on Leave and Trump gone up in smoke!
I will now look for lower risk investments unconnected with political betting. I wish this site well!
PB is stronger for a diversity of opinion and shouldn't be a echo chamber for the Jacobite cause or fine pie making.0 -
I put £2 on and it got taken at 680. I'd like to find a site with the bloody error bars though, perhaps it doesn't exist this time roundChameleon said:
Can cover that very easily by putting £2 at 440s on Betfair. When it loses, no bad net effect, if it wins you'll be have blackjack and hookers for days.Pulpstar said:
Jees so will Ipaulyork64 said:
If MLP drops below 30 I'll be cross.surbiton said:7 out of 107 departments. 68 - 32
Sampling won't be that far out though0 -
I know a lot of people get really hot under the collar about these things and see them as some kind of proxy engagement for other matters closer to home. I'm not one of them.OllyT said:
Come off it you were gagging for Le Pen to do well on the final debate thread.chestnut said:
You wally.OllyT said:chestnut said:
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
A French election is nothing more than mild amusement to me.
I'd guess that I'm one of a small number of people on here who isn't a member of any political party for a start.0 -
German polls have been under reporting the AfD vote for years, The AfD has entered nearly every state parliament in the last 3 years.SouthamObserver said:
The AfD has seen its support fall in the national polls too. Under 10% now nationwide.Alanbrooke said:
no it isntSouthamObserver said:
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.Alanbrooke said:
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
Currently it is having a bit of a civil war which is hitting support, but there is a hard core of pissed off germans who vote for it and it wont go away. Only the CSU in Bavaria is able to handle them0 -
Meaningless. Schleswig Holstein is not strong state for the AfD.SouthamObserver said:
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.Alanbrooke said:
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
0 -
Macron just finished is victory speech0
-
There's still a strong liberal wing in the Tory party.midwinter said:
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazersmidwinter said:
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/860028250181054464
Whilst I'm no fan of Mrs May, any Tory candidate/member that came out with those views would get expelled from the party by her.0 -
Currently results are showing Macron 60.5% Le Pen 39.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
UKIP grew the right wing vote, and Theresa May has united it.midwinter said:
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazersmidwinter said:
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/8600282501810544640 -
Nothing from Paris yet.HYUFD said:Currently results are showing Macron 60.5% Le Pen 39.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Yes as a LEAVE voter I was and am uncomfortable that a significant number of the people who I voted with are tolerant of fascists. However I had my own reasons for voting the way I did.AlastairMeeks said:
If you read what I wrote, I was urging Leavers to accept a problem that is endemic among their number (and then I suggest that they should consider what can be done about addressing it). Far too many Leavers regard Brexit as so important that anything that might assist it, no matter how tangentially and no matter what the consequences, is to be adopted. You might not see that as a problem. I see it as one of the most dangerous trends of current politics.ab195 said:
What a vile...AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
You should note that only one of us is anonymous.
As to what I personally do about it? All I can really do is vote tactically against individual politicians, prehaps campaign against them by knocking on doors etc I might campaign against UKIP in Dagenham & Rainham (I don't really live near) for example eventhough I loathe the current Labour party.
But the real question is why are the mainstream politicians losing so much support in the first place. Only people with with real influence and power can truely turn the trend around.0 -
There are plenty who probably aren't members of a party - me for one - though how many do not see everything through a partisan prism may well be less.chestnut said:
I know a lot of people get really hot under the collar about these things and see them as some kind of proxy engagement for other matter closer to home. I'm not one of them.OllyT said:
Come off it you were gagging for Le Pen to do well on the final debate thread.chestnut said:
You wally.OllyT said:chestnut said:
With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
Nice try at deflecting your obvious bitterness. Still be a bigger turnout than the British GE will get next month.
A French election is nothing more than mild amusement to me.
I'd guess that I'm one of a small number of people on here who isn't a member of any political party for start.0 -
lolsurbiton said:"I will defend Europe..." - Macron
I will do what Mrs Merkel tells me
France surrendered to germany in 1940
nothing has changed in between0 -
The turnout was 65.3%. However, 25% of those who "voted" spoilt their ballot paper.
So, it looks the vote was: Macron 48%, Le Pen 27%, Refused to vote 25%.0 -
Absolutely. I don't doubt that. I'd just hate to see the party gain support from anti immigration policies because of the votes that attracts.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's still a strong liberal wing in the Tory party.midwinter said:
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazersmidwinter said:
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/860028250181054464
Whilst I'm no fan of Mrs May, any Tory candidate/member that came out with those views would get expelled from the party by her.0 -
I think that you're right not to base the the predictions solely on the 2015 result, especially as regards the LibDems and UKIP.rcs1000 said:
I have a similar sheet. Using your numbers, I come up with a LD national vote share of 9.1%, which is probably a bit low.spudgfsh said:I've decided to put together a spreadsheet to 'guess' what the election results might be. It's based on the following three things (and has no special assumptions for Scotland).
1. The percentage of UKIP voters in a constituency which switch to Conservative
2. The percentage of Labour voters in a constituency which switch to Liberal Democrat
3. The percentage of Labour Voters in a constituency which do no vote
I realise that this is no better than UNS (and is probably worse) but I thought it'd be interesting to see what I got.
My initial guesses for the three numbers were 50%, 5% and 5% which left the parties as follows
Con 390, Lab 175, Lib 7, Nats (SNP+PC) 59 others 19
on top of that I'd add that 78 seats had a majority of less than 6%
questions I'd ask on this experiment
1. are there any other significant changes in votes I've missed here?
2. any better guesses on my numbers here?
3. what do I do about Scotland?
My working assumption is that the Conservatives gain 75% of the UKIP vote in each constituency. The LDs gain a small number of Conservatives in very Remain constituencies, and lose to them in very Leave ones. It assumes that in LD/Con marginals, that the LDs get the average of one third of the way back to 2010 levels, and the 2015 vote share + Lab * Remain %. I also assume that Scotland broadly goes the way of the Holyrood elections last year (which might be generous to the SNP, given the results last week).
Plug those together and I get the LDs in the low teens (flat in aggregate vs Cons, +2 from Lab, +2 from SNP). I get a lower nationalist tally, and a very slightly higher Conservative one.
It must be especially tricky this time because of events such as the election of Corbyn, the LibDems no longer being in a Coalition Government and the fallout of the Referendum.0 -
one in four voters think the candidates are shitsurbiton said:The turnout was 65.3%. However, 25% of those who "voted" spoilt their ballot paper.
So, it looks the vote was: Macron 48%, Le Pen 27%, Refused to vote 25%.
at least there are some sensible people left in France0 -
I had a look at the Derbyshire results.Pulpstar said:
I put £2 on and it got taken at 680. I'd like to find a site with the bloody error bars though, perhaps it doesn't exist this time roundChameleon said:
Can cover that very easily by putting £2 at 440s on Betfair. When it loses, no bad net effect, if it wins you'll be have blackjack and hookers for days.Pulpstar said:
Jees so will Ipaulyork64 said:
If MLP drops below 30 I'll be cross.surbiton said:7 out of 107 departments. 68 - 32
Sampling won't be that far out though
The swing in E&K was beaten in four or five other wards - Bolsover South and Stavely were two but the highest swing was 19% in Ilkeston East.
0 -
This is not "some portion of those who voted on that side are unpleasant". There is a clear and strong association between those who voted Leave and those who saw Marine Le Pen as the best option for Britain.ab195 said:
Consider how it looks. You come over as attempting to be hurtful. You'll never persuade anyone that way. And if your identity is widely known you'll be offending people before you've even met them.AlastairMeeks said:If you read what I wrote, I was urging Leavers to accept a problem that is endemic among their number (and then I suggest that they should consider what can be done about addressing it). Far too many Leavers regard Brexit as so important that anything that might assist it, no matter how tangentially and no matter what the consequences, is to be adopted. You might not see that as a problem. I see it as one of the most dangerous trends of current politics.
You should note that only one of us is anonymous.
On the broader point I am acutely aware that some portion of those who voted on that side are unpleasant. But that's true of any vote. Usually one can be on one side of one argument, and another side of the the next, forming different coalitions as you go. You seem to be implying that you won't ever support anyone who voted Leave on anything else on the basis that they are tarred with a certain brush. That's odd, and unhealthy.
If you feel uncomfortable about that, you do me too much credit if you think that it is my words that have done that. Leavers who are appalled by Marine Le Pen need to consider what they share with their erstwhile coalition partners, what new coalitions they might now want and how they are going to defeat those of their erstwhile coalition partners that they now have no affinity with.
But once again, the motto seems to be Vote Leave Avoid Responsibility.
0 -
The 25% have my respect.surbiton said:The turnout was 65.3%. However, 25% of those who "voted" spoilt their ballot paper.
So, it looks the vote was: Macron 48%, Le Pen 27%, Refused to vote 25%.0 -
Worth remembering that last time around, Macron trailed Le Pen until the very end when the cities came in.HYUFD said:Currently results are showing Macron 60.5% Le Pen 39.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
yupanother_richard said:
The 25% have my respect.surbiton said:The turnout was 65.3%. However, 25% of those who "voted" spoilt their ballot paper.
So, it looks the vote was: Macron 48%, Le Pen 27%, Refused to vote 25%.0 -
Was turnout definitely between 73.01 and 76% ?0
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I have a new favourite electoral system. http://www.dprvoting.org/DPR_in_practice.htm0
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Fingers crossed that the swing towards Macron is big enough to push her under 30, or small enough to push her above 35. Either will do nicely.rcs1000 said:
Worth remembering that last time around, Macron trailed Le Pen until the very end when the cities came in.HYUFD said:Currently results are showing Macron 60.5% Le Pen 39.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Vote blanc or spoiled paper. There is a differenceanother_richard said:
The 25% have my respect.surbiton said:The turnout was 65.3%. However, 25% of those who "voted" spoilt their ballot paper.
So, it looks the vote was: Macron 48%, Le Pen 27%, Refused to vote 25%.0 -
True, though turnout in Paris was below average in the runoffrcs1000 said:
Worth remembering that last time around, Macron trailed Le Pen until the very end when the cities came in.HYUFD said:Currently results are showing Macron 60.5% Le Pen 39.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
The AfD has the same problem a lot of European Eurosceptic parties have: it's split between those who don't like the EU because it's too protectionist (Bernd Lucke and Hans-Olaf Henkel) and those who don't like it because its too free market (Frauke Petry).Alanbrooke said:
German polls have been under reporting the AfD vote for years, The AfD has entered nearly every state parliament in the last 3 years.SouthamObserver said:
The AfD has seen its support fall in the national polls too. Under 10% now nationwide.Alanbrooke said:
no it isntSouthamObserver said:
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.Alanbrooke said:
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
Currently it is having a bit of a civil war which is hitting support, but there is a hard core of pissed off germans who vote for it and it wont go away. Only the CSU in Bavaria is able to handle them
(Edit to add: the AfD recently had a big fight about whether or not to ban male circumcision. Word of advice guys: something that predominantly hits Jewish Germans might draw some unhelpful comparisons.)0 -
Jean Marie Le Pen blames Marine's defeat on her preoccupation with opposing the EU. Blames Florian Phillipot as the principal architect of her defeat (Florian is the one that has shaped her overall anti-EU strategy since taking over).0
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Look at the map too, Le Pen is leading or tied with Macron in the far north and far east and the far south east with Macron sweeping everywhere else
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
That map is very blue. Provincial France is very pro EM. Picardy and the coastal Med slightly less so.HYUFD said:Currently results are showing Macron 60.5% Le Pen 39.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
the current AfD spat reminds me of the Green splits in the early 1980s between the Realos and the Fundis.rcs1000 said:
The AfD has the same problem a lot of European Eurosceptic parties have: it's split between those who don't like the EU because it's too protectionist (Bernd Lucke and Hans-Olaf Henkel) and those who don't like it because its too free market (Frauke Petry).Alanbrooke said:
German polls have been under reporting the AfD vote for years, The AfD has entered nearly every state parliament in the last 3 years.SouthamObserver said:
The AfD has seen its support fall in the national polls too. Under 10% now nationwide.Alanbrooke said:
no it isntSouthamObserver said:
Given where they have been in national polls, yes it's bad.Alanbrooke said:
they went from 0 to 5.7 % and thats bad ?SouthamObserver said:Associate too closely with Donald Trump at your peril if you are a European politician. Also today, in Schleswig Holsten, the AfD have had another very poor result.
this is not AfD territory, thats in the east and centre
its like comparing the Tory vote based on results in Liverpool or labour in Surrey
Currently it is having a bit of a civil war which is hitting support, but there is a hard core of pissed off germans who vote for it and it wont go away. Only the CSU in Bavaria is able to handle them
The pragmatists versus the purists0 -
-
That's a v handy insurance policy. I only backed the 30-35 two days ago when the polls had her dipping to 38. I was worried the undecideds would break heavily for macron.Chameleon said:
Popped £2 on Le Pen below 30% at 490-1, just in case for whatever reason things go spectacularly wrong for Le Pen.paulyork64 said:
If MLP drops below 30 I'll be cross.surbiton said:7 out of 107 departments. 68 - 32
0 -
He is the author of one of the prime texts on negotiation, Getting to Yes, and has written multiple other books on negotiation, including 'Getting Past No: Negotiating with Difficult People', and 'The Power of A Positive No'BenedictWhite said:
I'm not sure the CV as listed would help here though.
Having been a negotiator with the FCO for a number of years before going to business school where I studied his work, I can attest that I found many of the ideas from the academic study of negotiation analysis to have been profoundly useful, and wish I had known them earlier. Subsequently, in dealing with the Iraqis and their wmd programmes, I found his works again extremely useful and practical in dealing with Tariq Aziz, Gen Amer Rashid and Comical Ali.
I have no doubt that British Civil Servants could find a lot to learn from this gentleman.0 -
You're absolutely right. But if you don't think that the major driver behind Ukips success was dislike of immigration and immigrants then you're living in cloud cuckoo land. Farage made it respectable to express those views with the help of the tabloids using the (understandably) unpopular EU as a focus for voters. That's what killed the BNP..RobD said:
Last time I checked there was a secret ballot. While they may not be overt in their support, there is nothing stopping them doing whatever they want in the privacy of the voting booth.midwinter said:
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazersmidwinter said:
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/860028250181054464
0 -
Fascist disco0
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If it came off then I'd be in cloud 9 - for multiple reason.paulyork64 said:
That's a v handy insurance policy. I only backed the 30-35 two days ago when the polls had her dipping to 38. I was worried the undecideds would break heavily for macron.Chameleon said:
Popped £2 on Le Pen below 30% at 490-1, just in case for whatever reason things go spectacularly wrong for Le Pen.paulyork64 said:
If MLP drops below 30 I'll be cross.surbiton said:7 out of 107 departments. 68 - 32
0 -
The polling in the rural areas close one hour early.foxinsoxuk said:
That map is very blue. Provincial France is very pro EM. Picardy and the coastal Med slightly less so.HYUFD said:Currently results are showing Macron 60.5% Le Pen 39.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
Oh, come off it.bobajobPB said:
Nobody is bullying anyone.ThreeQuidder said:
That's no excuse for a PBer bullying another.midwinter said:
Although it appears to be OK with @PBModerator as he's been doing it for a couple of days now.0 -
Weird of them to use the opposite colours. Le Pen and the FN use blue, EM uses yellow.foxinsoxuk said:
That map is very blue. Provincial France is very pro EM. Picardy and the coastal Med slightly less so.HYUFD said:Currently results are showing Macron 60.5% Le Pen 39.5%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/07/world/europe/france-election-results-maps.html?_r=00 -
I'm doubling down on 35.01-40, odds are way too long considering that if the exit poll makes the same error on Le Pen as in the 1st round, she'd just squeak into this bracket.0
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Hostility to mass immigration is a common feature of many democracies, and is producing a rightward shift.midwinter said:
You're absolutely right. But if you don't think that the major driver behind Ukips success was dislike of immigration and immigrants then you're living in cloud cuckoo land. Farage made it respectable to express those views with the help of the tabloids using the (understandably) unpopular EU as a focus for voters. That's what killed the BNP..RobD said:
Last time I checked there was a secret ballot. While they may not be overt in their support, there is nothing stopping them doing whatever they want in the privacy of the voting booth.midwinter said:
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazersmidwinter said:
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/8600282501810544640 -
"Because you want the day to come sooner, when you've settled the score"Pulpstar said:Fascist disco
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1cTiqXWKII0 -
I assumed you were joking!ydoethur said:kle4 said:
Son of a prostitute appears to be the expression being used. Thanks Google. So I'd guess the overall phrase is bascially 'The voters of france are sons of bitches'.ydoethur said:
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?
Thank you both. I could work out the rest but that word foxed me (for some reason it's not one that's ever come up in conversations I've had).TheScreamingEagles said:
fils de pute translate roughly as 'Sons of bitches/whores'ydoethur said:
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?0 -
Your posts are generally good when you write in English, rather than using trite internet cliches like 'virtue signalling'.Mortimer said:
Of course not - but Mr Bobajob tends to get like this at elections where there is apparently virtue to be signalled. Any of us who suggested Trump might be in with a chance were repeatedly asked to state for some sort of Bobajobian record to say whether we wanted him to win/what total we thought he would get etc....midwinter said:0 -
Not sure about a system that would have left Douglas Carswell the most powerful man in the country. The downweighting effect this would have had on Scottish MPs would be a problem tooFreggles said:I have a new favourite electoral system. http://www.dprvoting.org/DPR_in_practice.htm
0 -
The EUR surges !0
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It's united because there's no alternative. Plenty of disenfranchised centre right voters who dislike anything Ukip related. All the time Corbyn and Farron are in situ there's no real choice.Sean_F said:
UKIP grew the right wing vote, and Theresa May has united it.midwinter said:
Indeed, they'd been itching to vote BNP for years but it wasn't socially acceptable. UKIP was manna from heaven. Makes the current surge in Tory support a little uncomfortable for those of us less enlightened.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tis the remaining Kippers. The BNP in blazersmidwinter said:
Some Leavers are so obsessed with the EU they'd support virtually anybody who shared their dislike. Fortunately I'd imagine they're very few in number.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet more than eight out of ten Remainers who expressed a preference opted for Emmanuel Macron.AlsoIndigo said:
It might be nice to mention that more than half of Leavers didn't express a preferenceAlastairMeeks said:
More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was the best outcome for Britain.midwinter said:
Hardly fair to describe those plums as representative of the PB right though. Just weirdos who want the EU to fail regardless of whether we're in or out. Sad really.kle4 said:
Indeed - one or two people did.Richard_Nabavi said:
The 'PB Right' did nothing of the sort.bobajobPB said:Cast your mind back to Wednesday night when the PB Right assured us that Le Pen was hammering Macron in the debate, a game changer. The French people thought differently.
Remainers would rather have been forcefed Whiskas.
Leavers have to accept that far too many of their number are very relaxed about throwing their hand in with the hard right.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/860028250181054464
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Tim Farron? Is that you?Scrapheap_as_was said:
hopefully not quite that chuffed surely....TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, George will be chuffed to buggery with this result.Scrapheap_as_was said:George O is a mate of Macron isn't he - certainly very pro him at least even before the second round...
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