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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron wins by an estimated 65.5 to 34.5%
France will shortly elect a new president, but what powers will Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen have if they win? #Presidentielle2017 pic.twitter.com/W8EoSvQgMY
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Boom0
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Second like Le Pen!
Squeaky bum time for me, I'm £150 down if it's not closer than 65-35.0 -
Macron!!!!!!!!!!!0
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damn vanilla bug - 3rd like Fillon I guess0
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Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.0
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Step forward Chuka in 2022...en march...the rise of hopeful centrist europhiles has started0
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Lets hope that that is roughly 0.6% too low for Le Pen.0
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How accurate was the exit poll in r1?0
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Perfectly designed to hit people on 35-40 bands.
Well done Macron, although still higher than one would like for a fascist. Let's hope a third Le Pen run does not double the FN score yet again!surbiton said:65%. The fascist got smashed. 40% - my arse!
Perhaps - but it will take time for the position to become apparent, and it's unclear how much the Tories will be affected by what level of poor Brexit deal or consequences.FF43 said:
Co-opting UKIP supporters and their politics makes a lot of sense for her party and her position. The problem is that she has oversold the prospects for Brexit, which inevitably will be a massively compromised affair.Richard_Nabavi said:
What utter garbage. I've repeatedly made clear that I'm not a huge fan of Theresa May, and that I think that she will prove nothing like as good a PM as Cameron. But we shall see, I keep an open mind, on that as on every other issue.surbiton said:These Tories are really something. Read Richard Nabavi, Fitalass etc. before June 23rd 2016 and you would have thought Cameron and Osborne walked on water.
Now, they have been discarded and fragrance comes out of May's arse.
However, on the narrow but very important issue of her Brexit position, I think she's got it right. Not that that is particularly difficult; her position is simple common sense.
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TheScreamingEagles said:
Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
En Marche have had very good polling for the Assembly, so a plurality, if not majority is very possible.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
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I thought a poll suggested he might manage to avoid cohabitation?TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
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Caution, that 65.5% is an estimate and the final figure might slip under 65%.0
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I win my Betfair Le Pen 30-35% if this holds true - annoyingly I'm in France at the moment so can't access and check what I put on it or at what odds (it was placed a while ago, small stakes good odds)0
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Vive La France! Strong and stable base for legislative elections to come.0
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In R1 he outdid the exit poll if I remember correctly (but yes it could go the other way this time I guess)Richard_Nabavi said:Caution, that 65.5% is an estimate and the final figure might slip under 65%.
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My best band is 30-35% Le Pen.Sandpit said:Second like Le Pen!
Squeaky bum time for me, I'm £150 down if it's not closer than 65-35.
As the rural areas report first, there may well be some time to cover position, before Le Pen falls below 35%.0 -
Not likely - May could well be unpopular but Macron will be embroiled in strikes/corruption sex scandals - perm any 2 from 3 or worse. If not it will be becasue he's failed to reform France in any meaningful way.tyson said:Step forward Chuka in 2022...en march...the rise of hopeful centrist europhiles has started
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I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.0
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Le Pen wanted out of EU and , if she could, out of the Euro.
Guess which party agrees with her on both for the British version.0 -
It says a lot when I'm relieved that the fascist has got only 35%0
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So some good news at last after a grim few weeks. Civil war in France and the disorderly collapse of the Euro averted.
Now for the real question - can Macron manage to do what has defied every French president and Prime Minister with the possible exception of de Gaulle since probably 1871 and actually sort out some of its deep-seated problems?
(I'm not unduly bothered about the Brexit implications because this means in effect no change.)0 -
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Farage has been talking up Le Pen recently hasn't he? Didn't he used to disavow FN, I'm sure I remember him refusing to have them in the same group in the European Parliament?0
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Thank goodness we have some hope in Europe.....
Vive le France...Vive Macron....
Sod Trump and Brexit...the politics soon to be the past....0 -
EM will be the largest party next month.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
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I hope they're not tweeting that.nunu said:0 -
Thank you, @Chris_from_Paris. My best betting result to stake ever.
It's pleasing, too, to see the reactions be exactly as predicted. Don't be happy Le Pen got only 35%, guys, worry that she even got so much.0 -
Wasn't it the other way around? Out of the Euro, and out of the EU if they refused?surbiton said:Le Pen wanted out of EU and , if she could, out of the Euro.
Guess which party agrees with her on both for the British version.
No. 1 on its own was about as a plausible a policy as a Donald Trump wall paid for by Mexico, of course.0 -
The PB Blackshirts are rather quiet tonight.OllyT said:I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
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And breathe out....
I am pleased at how relieved I am at that result.0 -
Nah, he will take a leaf out of May's book. Do you want a cohabitation of chaos or strong and stable leadership?TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
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65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!0
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Only the blukipper Tories thankyou very much Mr T. The saner amongst us agree with our spiritual leader Mr Osborne and are chuffed to bits for Maccers.OllyT said:I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
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You're not the only one.Richard_Tyndall said:And breathe out....
I am pleased at how relieved I am at that result.0 -
Thankfully there was never any prospect of a party similar in Britain which could get 35% of the vote - altho Corbyn's Labour comes the closest.surbiton said:Le Pen wanted out of EU and , if she could, out of the Euro.
Guess which party agrees with her on both for the British version.0 -
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
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The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
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France24 are even worse, they're estimating 35.1%Richard_Nabavi said:Caution, that 65.5% is an estimate and the final figure might slip under 65%.
Live stream of their English language coverage:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Ydto3Iyzic0 -
Forget winning the vote, who won the most départements?0
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Also what is in those interesting documents that were leaked and had the lid put on them during the election, I assume they will get a closer scrutiny now.ydoethur said:So some good news at last after a grim few weeks. Civil war in France and the disorderly collapse of the Euro averted.
Now for the real question - can Macron manage to do what has defied every French president and Prime Minister with the possible exception of de Gaulle since probably 1871 and actually sort out some of its deep-seated problems?
(I'm not unduly bothered about the Brexit implications because this means in effect no change.)0 -
An argument could perhaps be made that it's precisely the wrong result - big enough that we're not all mightily reassured and pointing and laughing, but not so big that it will lead to a desire to understand why people are voting for Le Pen, of all people.ThreeQuidder said:Thank you, @Chris_from_Paris. My best betting result to stake ever.
It's pleasing, too, to see the reactions be exactly as predicted. Don't be happy Le Pen got only 35%, guys, worry that she even got so much.
But maybe the simple fact that she was there at all will set alarm bells ringing.0 -
Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.0
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This was one fun election, albeit stressful.0
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Hah @Shadsy was laying Le Pen massively I believe.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Proper squeaky bum time right now.0
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Not by this one - I wanted Macron to win and pleased he has.OllyT said:I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
The remainers on here need to realise that the vast majority of conservatives are not pro UKIP0 -
Le Pen saying she will create a new party0
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'En goose-step'Paristonda said:Le Pen saying she will create a new party
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He weren't the only one.Pulpstar said:0 -
What and split the FN vote ?Paristonda said:Le Pen saying she will create a new party
Ask the socialists how that worked out
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Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?chestnut said:
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
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The test for Macron is how much he can achieve in the next 4 years. the record for france of last 20 is not promising.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
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FPT:
Silly because you disagree with it?tyson said:ydoethur said:
The point being that he has been an anti-Fascist and fervently pro-EU all his life. And when I say an anti-Fascist, I do not mean he says he is one before hanging out with Holocaust deniers or cheering on Hamas. That's how angry he is. It is a genuinely sobering turn of events. It would be the equivalent of you disowning Corbyn and admitting Abbott is insane.surbiton said:
Thanks. We got the message.ydoethur said:Purely anecdotal.
I was speaking to my father earlier. He's an ardent Europhile. Works with lots of EU agencies on vaccines and disease control. Spends a lot of time in the EU. Absolutely devastated when Britain voted leave - given it came so soon after my mother's death, I was actually really worried about him and made a point of getting down that weekend to visit him to try and cheer him up.
After Juncker's behaviour, he says that he wants the EU to be told they can shove their demands, go for Hard Brexit, possibly going back in on a sort of enhanced EFTA deal later when Juncker has been sacked (or preferably, sectioned). He believes that the Commission have proven they are acting in bad faith and someone needs to stand up to them.
It's also swung him round to hoping Marine Le Pen wins, to give the EU a bloody nose.
To give you some idea of how shocked I still am, it's the equivalent of hearing the Pope has conducted a same sex marriage - to his lover - while Adolf Hitler discourses on all the mighty virtues and achievements of the Jewish race that he admires so much. I exaggerate only very slightly.
I don't know whether Juncker was deliberately sabotaging talks, but if my father's reaction is in any way typical he's managed it whether that was his intention or not.
He hates the EU so much that he hopes a Fascist wins. Great !
It was a silly anecdote and not worthy of a response, much like Mortimer's anecdote that Oxford has been taken over by hordes of hard Brexit millennials in response to Junker.
Brexit folk indulge in a large dose of fantasy.....
Misrepresenting views since the year dot, eh tys? I'm not in Oxford, and stated my own surprise at just how the EU's insistence is harming not only their chances of a deal but also any residual sympathy from all but the die-hard EUphiles amongst my own friendship group.0 -
Yeah, who wasn't?TheScreamingEagles said:
He weren't the only one.Pulpstar said:0 -
UKIP is spare ....Paristonda said:Le Pen saying she will create a new party
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35.01-40.00 is at 4.5s on bet fair right now, potential value there.0
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With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
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I guess she's hoping if Macron does poorly over the next years, that plus removal of the FN brand will get her that extra 15%?Paristonda said:Le Pen saying she will create a new party
Sounds crazy, but they've clearly moved forward to some degree on getting transfers.0 -
The lesson to be learned of course is you dont fix it by calling voters names and telling them they are voting for a fascist/racist and they are a bunch of deplorables. The lesson is to fix the fecking problem that makes the voters angry enough at being ignored by mainstream politicians that they take a punt in the dark of trying to elect some nutcase.kle4 said:
Let us hope lessons are learned from Le Pen managing to not only get so far, but nearly double her father's score.tyson said:Thank goodness we have some hope in Europe.....
Vive le France...Vive Macron....
Sod Trump and Brexit...the politics soon to be the past....0 -
Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/8612798166744064000 -
LOL! @Shadsy was laying huge amounts on Le Pen into 6/1. His Christmas bonus fund will now be looking very healthy indeed!ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Almost at 5 figures liability on Le Pen in the end, though alot of that was today when we had plenty of data to back it up.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yeah, who wasn't?TheScreamingEagles said:
He weren't the only one.Pulpstar said:0 -
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.kle4 said:
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.0 -
But will he be a Charles de Gaulle or an Alexis Tsipras?kle4 said:
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
That's really what the question is now.
Not being a fascist nutcase was enough to win him the election following Fillon's implosion, but whether he can translate that into good government is another much more difficult question.0 -
And finally something for us liberal moderates to be pleased about in the west...foxinsoxuk said:
The PB Blackshirts are rather quiet tonight.OllyT said:I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
I haven't read much in these parts about what a remarkable achievement Macron has made....,
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Belgium normally.surbiton said:
Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?chestnut said:
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
The Dutch are trying to cobble together a 4 party coalition. The previous Rutte grouping was a two party set up with a solid majority.0 -
Florian Phillipot just clarified - it sounds like it will basically be a rebranding of the FN, probably will try to incorporate the Debout La France movement.Pulpstar said:
What and split the FN vote ?Paristonda said:Le Pen saying she will create a new party
Ask the socialists how that worked out0 -
I think 4.6/1.28 is about right for the bands, the exits are generally pretty good.
Someone link to the error band website though.0 -
I was laying Fillon too, I thought I was headed for the nightmare scenario a few times in recent weeks.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yeah, who wasn't?TheScreamingEagles said:
He weren't the only one.Pulpstar said:0 -
The Dutch worked out yonks ago that there's no government as good as no government. And there's absolutely nothing worse for the people than a strong government. (Remember kids, giving money and power to the government is like giving whisky and car keys to teenagers.)chestnut said:
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
That's why they designed an electoral system specifically to reduce the likelihood of the government evert being able to do anything. It's been remarkably efficient over the years. Much better, all things considered, than systems that allow politicians actual power.0 -
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?0 -
Hurrah for the striped shirts!0
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Saves May from a seriously awkward meeting with Le Pen as President of France. Relief for her and probably most Tories. I don't know anything about Macron (apart from being married to a 63 year old), but I wish him well.0
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I seem to recall it was Belgium who went something like 18 months without a government once.surbiton said:
Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?chestnut said:
The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.TheScreamingEagles said:Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
Although I think they have something like a Federal Parliament, Region Parliaments, and Parliaments for specific language communities, so they get by just fine I guess.0 -
Theresa May was the first leader to congratulate Macron0
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Over £39 million matched on Betfair Exchange's "Next French President " market.0
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felix said:
The test for Macron is how much he can achieve in the next 4 years. the record for france of last 20 is not promising.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
Is he on holiday for all of year 5?felix said:
The test for Macron is how much he can achieve in the next 4 years. the record for france of last 20 is not promising.williamglenn said:Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
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I've decided to put together a spreadsheet to 'guess' what the election results might be. It's based on the following three things (and has no special assumptions for Scotland).
1. The percentage of UKIP voters in a constituency which switch to Conservative
2. The percentage of Labour voters in a constituency which switch to Liberal Democrat
3. The percentage of Labour Voters in a constituency which do no vote
I realise that this is no better than UNS (and is probably worse) but I thought it'd be interesting to see what I got.
My initial guesses for the three numbers were 50%, 5% and 5% which left the parties as follows
Con 390, Lab 175, Lib 7, Nats (SNP+PC) 59 others 19
on top of that I'd add that 78 seats had a majority of less than 6%
questions I'd ask on this experiment
1. are there any other significant changes in votes I've missed here?
2. any better guesses on my numbers here?
3. what do I do about Scotland?0 -
Well said and, in my defence, I did say "certain" PB Tories (they know who they are!) but you guys are going to have a fight on your hands with all the Kippers flooding back in. I hope they don't turn you back into the "nasty" party, you were better off without them.midwinter said:
Only the blukipper Tories thankyou very much Mr T. The saner amongst us agree with our spiritual leader Mr Osborne and are chuffed to bits for Maccers.OllyT said:I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
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Great stuff - looks like a much bigger margin than expected.
And Macron did it without pandering to any of Le Pen's xenophobic nationalism or social conservatism.0 -
Sounds like the BJP government in India. Fascists trying to be respectable over 40 years.Paristonda said:
Florian Phillipot just clarified - it sounds like it will basically be a rebranding of the FN, probably will try to incorporate the Debout La France movement.Pulpstar said:
What and split the FN vote ?Paristonda said:Le Pen saying she will create a new party
Ask the socialists how that worked out0 -
I bet on the French election with gross incompetence and have still ended up with a tidy profit.
Honestly, I'm embarrassed, but not so embarrassed to pocket my winnings.0 -
Son of a prostitute appears to be the expression being used. Thanks Google. So I'd guess the overall phrase is bascially 'The voters of france are sons of bitches'.ydoethur said:
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?0 -
I agree, and hope they do, but am not holding my breath...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not by this one - I wanted Macron to win and pleased he has.OllyT said:I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
The remainers on here need to realise that the vast majority of conservatives are not pro UKIP
But, there are glimmers of hope. I note that the barmy rhetoric about Mrs May pursuing a hard Right agenda, or the like, seems to have been quietly dropped since the number of Labour to Tory switchers piles up......
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fils de pute translate roughly as 'Sons of bitches/whores'ydoethur said:
My French is not all it might be.TheScreamingEagles said:Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.
Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.
https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
What does 'de pute' mean?0 -
Excellent post. Totally agree.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.kle4 said:
When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.dixiedean said:65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
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Any news from Moniker?-1
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Debout Le France, though, was economically literate, while the Front National was economically populist. DLF wanted lower tariffs. The FN wanted 35% tariffs on everything. DLF wanted to reduce regulation. The FN wanted more worker protections and more government interference.Paristonda said:
Florian Phillipot just clarified - it sounds like it will basically be a rebranding of the FN, probably will try to incorporate the Debout La France movement.Pulpstar said:
What and split the FN vote ?Paristonda said:Le Pen saying she will create a new party
Ask the socialists how that worked out
It's like tying together Farage and Corbyn on the basis that they're both hostile to the EU. It doesn't lead to policy coherence.0 -
The Dutch hit the brakes first though.tyson said:
And finally something for us liberal moderates to be pleased about in the west...foxinsoxuk said:
The PB Blackshirts are rather quiet tonight.OllyT said:I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
I haven't read much in these parts about what a remarkable achievement Macron has made....,0 -
One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.williamglenn said:
It gives you hope.0 -
Fair point - I did say "certain" PB Tories.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not by this one - I wanted Macron to win and pleased he has.OllyT said:I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
The remainers on here need to realise that the vast majority of conservatives are not pro UKIP0 -
I really let my heart overrule my head in laying Le Pen in this market.AlastairMeeks said:I bet on the French election with gross incompetence and have still ended up with a tidy profit.
Honestly, I'm embarrassed, but not so embarrassed to pocket my winnings.0 -
I think he will need it. He needs to come up with some sort of economic modernisation program that wont cause the unions to grind the country to a halt with a massive strike as it did shortly after his predecessor was elected.Jason said:Saves May from a seriously awkward meeting with Le Pen as President of France. Relief for her and probably most Tories. I don't know anything about Macron (apart from being married to a 63 year old), but I wish him well.
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