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SystemSystem Posts: 12,639
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron wins by an estimated 65.5 to 34.5%

France will shortly elect a new president, but what powers will Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen have if they win? #Presidentielle2017 pic.twitter.com/W8EoSvQgMY

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Boom
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,613
    edited May 2017
    Second like Le Pen!

    Squeaky bum time for me, I'm £150 down if it's not closer than 65-35.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Macron!!!!!!!!!!!
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    damn vanilla bug - 3rd like Fillon I guess
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Step forward Chuka in 2022...en march...the rise of hopeful centrist europhiles has started
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    Lets hope that that is roughly 0.6% too low for Le Pen.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    How accurate was the exit poll in r1?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    Perfectly designed to hit people on 35-40 bands.
    surbiton said:

    65%. The fascist got smashed. 40% - my arse!

    Well done Macron, although still higher than one would like for a fascist. Let's hope a third Le Pen run does not double the FN score yet again!
    FF43 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    surbiton said:

    These Tories are really something. Read Richard Nabavi, Fitalass etc. before June 23rd 2016 and you would have thought Cameron and Osborne walked on water.

    Now, they have been discarded and fragrance comes out of May's arse.

    What utter garbage. I've repeatedly made clear that I'm not a huge fan of Theresa May, and that I think that she will prove nothing like as good a PM as Cameron. But we shall see, I keep an open mind, on that as on every other issue.

    However, on the narrow but very important issue of her Brexit position, I think she's got it right. Not that that is particularly difficult; her position is simple common sense.
    Co-opting UKIP supporters and their politics makes a lot of sense for her party and her position. The problem is that she has oversold the prospects for Brexit, which inevitably will be a massively compromised affair.
    Perhaps - but it will take time for the position to become apparent, and it's unclear how much the Tories will be affected by what level of poor Brexit deal or consequences.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.

    En Marche have had very good polling for the Assembly, so a plurality, if not majority is very possible.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    edited May 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.

    I thought a poll suggested he might manage to avoid cohabitation?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Caution, that 65.5% is an estimate and the final figure might slip under 65%.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Chameleon said:

    How accurate was the exit poll in r1?

    Bum squeekingly so for you ....
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    I win my Betfair Le Pen 30-35% if this holds true - annoyingly I'm in France at the moment so can't access and check what I put on it or at what odds (it was placed a while ago, small stakes good odds)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,458
    Vive La France! Strong and stable base for legislative elections to come.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Caution, that 65.5% is an estimate and the final figure might slip under 65%.

    In R1 he outdid the exit poll if I remember correctly (but yes it could go the other way this time I guess)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:

    Second like Le Pen!

    Squeaky bum time for me, I'm £150 down if it's not closer than 65-35.

    My best band is 30-35% Le Pen.

    As the rural areas report first, there may well be some time to cover position, before Le Pen falls below 35%.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    tyson said:

    Step forward Chuka in 2022...en march...the rise of hopeful centrist europhiles has started

    Not likely - May could well be unpopular but Macron will be embroiled in strikes/corruption sex scandals - perm any 2 from 3 or worse. If not it will be becasue he's failed to reform France in any meaningful way.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,054
    I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Le Pen wanted out of EU and , if she could, out of the Euro.

    Guess which party agrees with her on both for the British version.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    It says a lot when I'm relieved that the fascist has got only 35%
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,963
    So some good news at last after a grim few weeks. Civil war in France and the disorderly collapse of the Euro averted.

    Now for the real question - can Macron manage to do what has defied every French president and Prime Minister with the possible exception of de Gaulle since probably 1871 and actually sort out some of its deep-seated problems?

    (I'm not unduly bothered about the Brexit implications because this means in effect no change.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,114
    surbiton said:

    Le Pen wanted out of EU and , if she could, out of the Euro.

    Guess which party agrees with her on both for the British version.

    Ummm: I think you've got those the wrong way round.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    surbiton said:

    Le Pen wanted out of EU and , if she could, out of the Euro.

    Guess which party agrees with her on both for the British version.

    Labour?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/861281622884327424
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    Farage has been talking up Le Pen recently hasn't he? Didn't he used to disavow FN, I'm sure I remember him refusing to have them in the same group in the European Parliament?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Thank goodness we have some hope in Europe.....

    Vive le France...Vive Macron....

    Sod Trump and Brexit...the politics soon to be the past....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.

    EM will be the largest party next month.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/861281622884327424

    I hope they're not tweeting that.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Thank you, @Chris_from_Paris. My best betting result to stake ever.

    It's pleasing, too, to see the reactions be exactly as predicted. Don't be happy Le Pen got only 35%, guys, worry that she even got so much.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,963
    surbiton said:

    Le Pen wanted out of EU and , if she could, out of the Euro.

    Guess which party agrees with her on both for the British version.

    Wasn't it the other way around? Out of the Euro, and out of the EU if they refused?

    No. 1 on its own was about as a plausible a policy as a Donald Trump wall paid for by Mexico, of course.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    OllyT said:

    I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.

    The PB Blackshirts are rather quiet tonight.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,514
    And breathe out....

    I am pleased at how relieved I am at that result.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.

    Nah, he will take a leaf out of May's book. Do you want a cohabitation of chaos or strong and stable leadership?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,458
    65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    tyson said:

    Thank goodness we have some hope in Europe.....

    Vive le France...Vive Macron....

    Sod Trump and Brexit...the politics soon to be the past....

    Let us hope lessons are learned from Le Pen managing to not only get so far, but nearly double her father's score.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    OllyT said:

    I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.

    Only the blukipper Tories thankyou very much Mr T. The saner amongst us agree with our spiritual leader Mr Osborne and are chuffed to bits for Maccers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    And breathe out....

    I am pleased at how relieved I am at that result.

    You're not the only one.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    surbiton said:

    Le Pen wanted out of EU and , if she could, out of the Euro.

    Guess which party agrees with her on both for the British version.

    Thankfully there was never any prospect of a party similar in Britain which could get 35% of the vote - altho Corbyn's Labour comes the closest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    dixiedean said:

    65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!

    When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/861279618392883203
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.

    The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,613
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Caution, that 65.5% is an estimate and the final figure might slip under 65%.

    France24 are even worse, they're estimating 35.1% :o

    Live stream of their English language coverage:
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Ydto3Iyzic
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Forget winning the vote, who won the most départements?
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    ydoethur said:

    So some good news at last after a grim few weeks. Civil war in France and the disorderly collapse of the Euro averted.

    Now for the real question - can Macron manage to do what has defied every French president and Prime Minister with the possible exception of de Gaulle since probably 1871 and actually sort out some of its deep-seated problems?

    (I'm not unduly bothered about the Brexit implications because this means in effect no change.)

    Also what is in those interesting documents that were leaked and had the lid put on them during the election, I assume they will get a closer scrutiny now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,963
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Thank you, @Chris_from_Paris. My best betting result to stake ever.

    It's pleasing, too, to see the reactions be exactly as predicted. Don't be happy Le Pen got only 35%, guys, worry that she even got so much.

    An argument could perhaps be made that it's precisely the wrong result - big enough that we're not all mightily reassured and pointing and laughing, but not so big that it will lead to a desire to understand why people are voting for Le Pen, of all people.

    But maybe the simple fact that she was there at all will set alarm bells ringing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    This was one fun election, albeit stressful.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    ThreeQuidder said:

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/861279618392883203

    Hah @Shadsy was laying Le Pen massively I believe.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    Proper squeaky bum time right now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,451
    OllyT said:

    I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.

    Not by this one - I wanted Macron to win and pleased he has.

    The remainers on here need to realise that the vast majority of conservatives are not pro UKIP
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Le Pen saying she will create a new party
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Paristonda said:

    Le Pen saying she will create a new party

    'En goose-step'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Pulpstar said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/861279618392883203

    Hah @Shadsy was laying Le Pen massively I believe.
    He weren't the only one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    edited May 2017
    Paristonda said:

    Le Pen saying she will create a new party

    What and split the FN vote ?

    Ask the socialists how that worked out :p
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chestnut said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.

    The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.

    Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    williamglenn said:

    Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.

    The test for Macron is how much he can achieve in the next 4 years. the record for france of last 20 is not promising.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,289
    FPT:
    tyson said:

    ydoethur said:

    surbiton said:

    ydoethur said:

    Purely anecdotal.

    I was speaking to my father earlier. He's an ardent Europhile. Works with lots of EU agencies on vaccines and disease control. Spends a lot of time in the EU. Absolutely devastated when Britain voted leave - given it came so soon after my mother's death, I was actually really worried about him and made a point of getting down that weekend to visit him to try and cheer him up.

    After Juncker's behaviour, he says that he wants the EU to be told they can shove their demands, go for Hard Brexit, possibly going back in on a sort of enhanced EFTA deal later when Juncker has been sacked (or preferably, sectioned). He believes that the Commission have proven they are acting in bad faith and someone needs to stand up to them.

    It's also swung him round to hoping Marine Le Pen wins, to give the EU a bloody nose.

    To give you some idea of how shocked I still am, it's the equivalent of hearing the Pope has conducted a same sex marriage - to his lover - while Adolf Hitler discourses on all the mighty virtues and achievements of the Jewish race that he admires so much. I exaggerate only very slightly.

    I don't know whether Juncker was deliberately sabotaging talks, but if my father's reaction is in any way typical he's managed it whether that was his intention or not.

    Thanks. We got the message.

    He hates the EU so much that he hopes a Fascist wins. Great !
    The point being that he has been an anti-Fascist and fervently pro-EU all his life. And when I say an anti-Fascist, I do not mean he says he is one before hanging out with Holocaust deniers or cheering on Hamas. That's how angry he is. It is a genuinely sobering turn of events. It would be the equivalent of you disowning Corbyn and admitting Abbott is insane.

    It was a silly anecdote and not worthy of a response, much like Mortimer's anecdote that Oxford has been taken over by hordes of hard Brexit millennials in response to Junker.

    Brexit folk indulge in a large dose of fantasy.....

    Silly because you disagree with it?

    Misrepresenting views since the year dot, eh tys? I'm not in Oxford, and stated my own surprise at just how the EU's insistence is harming not only their chances of a deal but also any residual sympathy from all but the die-hard EUphiles amongst my own friendship group.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/861279618392883203

    Hah @Shadsy was laying Le Pen massively I believe.
    He weren't the only one.
    Yeah, who wasn't?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Paristonda said:

    Le Pen saying she will create a new party

    UKIP is spare ....
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    35.01-40.00 is at 4.5s on bet fair right now, potential value there.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    williamglenn said:

    Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.

    With the second worst primary vote in sixty years and a high abstention rate in the second round, it seems fair to say that the French are generally underwhelmed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    Paristonda said:

    Le Pen saying she will create a new party

    I guess she's hoping if Macron does poorly over the next years, that plus removal of the FN brand will get her that extra 15%?

    Sounds crazy, but they've clearly moved forward to some degree on getting transfers.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    Thank goodness we have some hope in Europe.....

    Vive le France...Vive Macron....

    Sod Trump and Brexit...the politics soon to be the past....

    Let us hope lessons are learned from Le Pen managing to not only get so far, but nearly double her father's score.
    The lesson to be learned of course is you dont fix it by calling voters names and telling them they are voting for a fascist/racist and they are a bunch of deplorables. The lesson is to fix the fecking problem that makes the voters angry enough at being ignored by mainstream politicians that they take a punt in the dark of trying to elect some nutcase.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.

    Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.

    https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,613
    ThreeQuidder said:

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/861279618392883203

    LOL! @Shadsy was laying huge amounts on Le Pen into 6/1. His Christmas bonus fund will now be looking very healthy indeed!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/861279618392883203

    Hah @Shadsy was laying Le Pen massively I believe.
    He weren't the only one.
    Yeah, who wasn't?
    Almost at 5 figures liability on Le Pen in the end, though alot of that was today when we had plenty of data to back it up.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,514
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!

    When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
    I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.

    I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,963
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!

    When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
    But will he be a Charles de Gaulle or an Alexis Tsipras?

    That's really what the question is now.

    Not being a fascist nutcase was enough to win him the election following Fillon's implosion, but whether he can translate that into good government is another much more difficult question.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/queen_europe/status/861282584898228225
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    foxinsoxuk said:

    OllyT said:

    I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.

    The PB Blackshirts are rather quiet tonight.
    And finally something for us liberal moderates to be pleased about in the west...

    I haven't read much in these parts about what a remarkable achievement Macron has made....,
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.

    The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.

    Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?
    Belgium normally.

    The Dutch are trying to cobble together a 4 party coalition. The previous Rutte grouping was a two party set up with a solid majority.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Pulpstar said:

    Paristonda said:

    Le Pen saying she will create a new party

    What and split the FN vote ?

    Ask the socialists how that worked out :p
    Florian Phillipot just clarified - it sounds like it will basically be a rebranding of the FN, probably will try to incorporate the Debout La France movement.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    I think 4.6/1.28 is about right for the bands, the exits are generally pretty good.

    Someone link to the error band website though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/861279618392883203

    Hah @Shadsy was laying Le Pen massively I believe.
    He weren't the only one.
    Yeah, who wasn't?
    I was laying Fillon too, I thought I was headed for the nightmare scenario a few times in recent weeks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,114
    chestnut said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.

    The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.

    The Dutch worked out yonks ago that there's no government as good as no government. And there's absolutely nothing worse for the people than a strong government. (Remember kids, giving money and power to the government is like giving whisky and car keys to teenagers.)

    That's why they designed an electoral system specifically to reduce the likelihood of the government evert being able to do anything. It's been remarkably efficient over the years. Much better, all things considered, than systems that allow politicians actual power.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,963
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.

    Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.

    https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400

    My French is not all it might be.

    What does 'de pute' mean?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Hurrah for the striped shirts!
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Saves May from a seriously awkward meeting with Le Pen as President of France. Relief for her and probably most Tories. I don't know anything about Macron (apart from being married to a 63 year old), but I wish him well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yebbut co-habitation is likely to leave him as impotent as a eunuch male porn star.

    The Dutch still haven't formed a coalition. They had elections nearly two months ago.

    Do the Dutch ever have a government ? Or, is that Belgium ?
    I seem to recall it was Belgium who went something like 18 months without a government once.

    Although I think they have something like a Federal Parliament, Region Parliaments, and Parliaments for specific language communities, so they get by just fine I guess.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Theresa May was the first leader to congratulate Macron
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Over £39 million matched on Betfair Exchange's "Next French President " market.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    felix said:

    williamglenn said:

    Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.

    The test for Macron is how much he can achieve in the next 4 years. the record for france of last 20 is not promising.
    felix said:

    williamglenn said:

    Le Pen says people have voted for continuity. Churlish.

    The test for Macron is how much he can achieve in the next 4 years. the record for france of last 20 is not promising.
    Is he on holiday for all of year 5?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Erm......

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/861284100321275904
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,054
    midwinter said:

    OllyT said:

    I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.

    Only the blukipper Tories thankyou very much Mr T. The saner amongst us agree with our spiritual leader Mr Osborne and are chuffed to bits for Maccers.
    Well said and, in my defence, I did say "certain" PB Tories (they know who they are!) but you guys are going to have a fight on your hands with all the Kippers flooding back in. I hope they don't turn you back into the "nasty" party, you were better off without them.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,577
    I've decided to put together a spreadsheet to 'guess' what the election results might be. It's based on the following three things (and has no special assumptions for Scotland).

    1. The percentage of UKIP voters in a constituency which switch to Conservative
    2. The percentage of Labour voters in a constituency which switch to Liberal Democrat
    3. The percentage of Labour Voters in a constituency which do no vote

    I realise that this is no better than UNS (and is probably worse) but I thought it'd be interesting to see what I got.

    My initial guesses for the three numbers were 50%, 5% and 5% which left the parties as follows

    Con 390, Lab 175, Lib 7, Nats (SNP+PC) 59 others 19
    on top of that I'd add that 78 seats had a majority of less than 6%

    questions I'd ask on this experiment

    1. are there any other significant changes in votes I've missed here?
    2. any better guesses on my numbers here?
    3. what do I do about Scotland?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Great stuff - looks like a much bigger margin than expected.

    And Macron did it without pandering to any of Le Pen's xenophobic nationalism or social conservatism.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Paristonda said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Paristonda said:

    Le Pen saying she will create a new party

    What and split the FN vote ?

    Ask the socialists how that worked out :p
    Florian Phillipot just clarified - it sounds like it will basically be a rebranding of the FN, probably will try to incorporate the Debout La France movement.
    Sounds like the BJP government in India. Fascists trying to be respectable over 40 years.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I bet on the French election with gross incompetence and have still ended up with a tidy profit.

    Honestly, I'm embarrassed, but not so embarrassed to pocket my winnings.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    edited May 2017
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.

    Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.

    https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400

    My French is not all it might be.

    What does 'de pute' mean?
    Son of a prostitute appears to be the expression being used. Thanks Google. So I'd guess the overall phrase is bascially 'The voters of france are sons of bitches'.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,289
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OllyT said:

    I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.

    Not by this one - I wanted Macron to win and pleased he has.

    The remainers on here need to realise that the vast majority of conservatives are not pro UKIP
    I agree, and hope they do, but am not holding my breath...

    But, there are glimmers of hope. I note that the barmy rhetoric about Mrs May pursuing a hard Right agenda, or the like, seems to have been quietly dropped since the number of Labour to Tory switchers piles up......
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Le Pen's fans aren't taking it well.

    Though, I'd normally agree with the sentiment about the French.

    https://twitter.com/MarianeDeFrance/status/861279816674406400

    My French is not all it might be.

    What does 'de pute' mean?
    fils de pute translate roughly as 'Sons of bitches/whores'
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    65% as an independent with no party machinery is quite some achievement. Bravo!

    When you consider how many people try to forge new movements and perform laughably, it is both an incredible achievement from him (and here's hoping he's up to it) and a pretty pathetic showing from the traditional parties in France.
    I think it shows both how bad things are in France in terms of alienation and also how sensible the French are at times like this. Macron may of course turn out to disappoint but he was just as much a vote for change as Le Pen would have been. Just as in the UK and US the traditional parties and movements are being told to go screw themselves - at least temporarily.

    I think we should be eternally grateful that Macron was around to serve as an outlet for those views. Imagine of the choice had been the two traditional parties plus the far left and far right. There would have been a serious possibility of Le Pen winning under those circumstances.

    Excellent post. Totally agree.

  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Any news from Moniker?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,114
    Paristonda said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Paristonda said:

    Le Pen saying she will create a new party

    What and split the FN vote ?

    Ask the socialists how that worked out :p
    Florian Phillipot just clarified - it sounds like it will basically be a rebranding of the FN, probably will try to incorporate the Debout La France movement.
    Debout Le France, though, was economically literate, while the Front National was economically populist. DLF wanted lower tariffs. The FN wanted 35% tariffs on everything. DLF wanted to reduce regulation. The FN wanted more worker protections and more government interference.

    It's like tying together Farage and Corbyn on the basis that they're both hostile to the EU. It doesn't lead to policy coherence.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tyson said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    OllyT said:

    I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.

    The PB Blackshirts are rather quiet tonight.
    And finally something for us liberal moderates to be pleased about in the west...

    I haven't read much in these parts about what a remarkable achievement Macron has made....,
    The Dutch hit the brakes first though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,963
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/queen_europe/status/861282584898228225

    One of the more amusing and gratifying features of recent months is how Julian Assange is now being pounded by the left as a Russian stooge - a far cry from when a large number of social radicals lauded him as the great hero standing up against America and dismissed the rape allegations made against him as false and invented.

    It gives you hope.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,054
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OllyT said:

    I thought we were assured by certain PB Tories that Le Pen was going to get near 45% after wiping the floor with Macron in the final debate.

    Not by this one - I wanted Macron to win and pleased he has.

    The remainers on here need to realise that the vast majority of conservatives are not pro UKIP
    Fair point - I did say "certain" PB Tories.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    edited May 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I bet on the French election with gross incompetence and have still ended up with a tidy profit.

    Honestly, I'm embarrassed, but not so embarrassed to pocket my winnings.

    I really let my heart overrule my head in laying Le Pen in this market.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Jason said:

    Saves May from a seriously awkward meeting with Le Pen as President of France. Relief for her and probably most Tories. I don't know anything about Macron (apart from being married to a 63 year old), but I wish him well.

    I think he will need it. He needs to come up with some sort of economic modernisation program that wont cause the unions to grind the country to a halt with a massive strike as it did shortly after his predecessor was elected.
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