politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Branding the Tories totally around Theresa has made it easier
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Anyone got an idea of Percentage of first preference votes in Scotland yet?0
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Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.Typo said:Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!0 -
Btw, I noticed the lay side of the market was trading overbroke just now. You don't see that very often. Worth keeping an eye on.foxinsoxuk said:
While the debate got the PB Blackshirts salivating, in France the reaction is that Macron was far better.Peter_the_Punter said:Meanwhile, in La France, good news for (most) PB punters....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN18014H
Le Pen on 35-40 looks value at 2.16, but with the way polls are moving I think good to cover 30-35% too. Undecideds will not break to Le Pen IMO.0 -
Well done.TheScreamingEagles said:Hurrah, JohnO has been elected in Surrey.
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Midpoints spin 404-149-22.5, spreadex 405-148-23.50
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That was for England!SquareRoot said:
465 and counting. I though Labour losses had been projected at c 150??Scott_P said:0 -
On topic!Carswell on Sky is using Tory talking points - he just referred to "Theresa May's candidates".0
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WM Mayor betting Betfair Exchange
Street 1.55-1.69
Simon 2.34-2.6
Less than £5 matched in total on this market.0 -
Missed that, flicking between several tabs. Sorry :-)Scott_P said:
Also posted upthread, but yes, remarkableBlack_Rook said:Twitter reveals that a Scottish Conservative candidate has won a seat representing Ravenscraig - former home of the steel plant killed off by the Great Satan with her Handbag of Doom.
It would appear that the electoral advantage of screaming "Evil Tories!" is at last beginning to wane up North.0 -
A pointed dig at Those Who Will Not Deliver?Carolus_Rex said:Question for the Lib Dems on here.
So far Kent CC has six Liberal Democrat and one "Liberal Democrat Focus Team" councillors elected.
What's the difference?0 -
I bought the Tories at 378 with spreadex a fortnight ago, I was thinking of closing out earlier on this week.Andrew said:Midpoints spin 404-149-22.5, spreadex 405-148-23.5
But someone persuaded me not to do so.
I'm so grateful.0 -
Second that.Sean_F said:
Well done.TheScreamingEagles said:Hurrah, JohnO has been elected in Surrey.
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Bravo!TheScreamingEagles said:Hurrah, JohnO has been elected in Surrey.
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Parties have a number of descriptions listed with the Electoral Commission that can be used by candidates on the ballot paper. There are some Lib Dems who (wrongly I think) believe "Focus" is a strong enough brand to make it worth putting on the ballot paper.Carolus_Rex said:Question for the Lib Dems on here.
So far Kent CC has six Liberal Democrat and one "Liberal Democrat Focus Team" councillors elected.
What's the difference?
There's no formal difference beyond the description though - it's not like the Co-operative Party which stands joint candidates with Labour but is actually a separate organisation (albeit closely linked).
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Yes - but Tory councillors have personal votes too!AndyJS said:
If the higher Labour vote was because of personal votes for local councillors (which are almost always more significant than personal votes for MPs), it wouldn't make any difference whether people knew a general election was coming or not.justin124 said:
But there was no expectation of a general election when people voted in 1983 - unlike 1987.AndyJS said:At the 1983 locals, Labour's projected share was 34.5%. They got 28.3% at the GE 4 weeks later.
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Lord Ashcroft FG:
However hazy on the details, the groups had grasped the tenor of the leaks. Few found this very alarming, seeing it either as a negotiating tactic, or an expression of Europe’s fear of the future without Britain and (more to the point) its money: “They’re all frightened, aren’t they. They’ve got the French election coming up, and if Marine Le Pen gets in, oh my God. They’ll take France out, and that will be the end of the EU. So I think they’re all shit scared. Excuse that, sorry.” Far from seeing the episode as a told-you-so moment, many of those who had voted to stay in the EU were unimpressed: “I understand the logic of why we need to remain, but now they’re coming over and threatening us in our own territory.”
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/05/emirates-v-easyjet-election-focus-groups-five-weeks-go/0 -
So add the 7 to 2015 polls/GE vote, which gives the same answer.Chris said:
No - that 7% increase was compared with 2015, not 2013. According to Wikipedia the 2013 figure was 14%, so an increase of only 4 points.IanB2 said:
The LibDems added 7% to their 2013 local election performance, so the logical thing would be to add 7 to their 2013 opinion poll ratings. I haven't checked but guess these would have been down in the 7-8% range, which gives a projected VI for the General of 14-15%, which looks credible.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
True, but I slightly struggle with how to interpret these results compared with most local elections. They have been swamped with coverage of the national picture, and in the places that matter with GE campaigning. I agree the "true" LD figure is probably lower, but my pure intuition would be 14%-ish.Black_Rook said:
The Liberal Democrats always outperform in local elections.Icarus said:The Liberal Democrat 18% is very encouraging for the General election. There are 5 weeks to go (5 X a long time)
In that time Labour will continue to collapse - their candidates denouncing JC will not help.
The Tories will continue to ask for a blank cheque, the Liberals will look like the only alternative and should pick up support in winnable seats.
Their impact on June 8th is likely to be very modest indeed.
There aren't many close equivalents. The 1983 and 1987 elections were hot on the heels of locals, but weren't actually called until after they had concluded I think. In the former, the Alliance outperformed their local result by a few %, and in the latter underperformed by a similar amount. But, as I say, I think the comparison is imperfect.
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Do you think Kelvin Hopkins is at risk?Sean_F said:
Well done.TheScreamingEagles said:Hurrah, JohnO has been elected in Surrey.
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SeanT said:
Cornwall is counting. Tories are 4 up so far, but tis very early days, my 'andsome.
'ang on, weren't they hideously split and doomed to oblivion??? (c) Mark Someone-or-other0 -
That's not as extreme as I would have expected, with the exception off UKIP of course, i.e Tories not as good as it looked earlier, Labour not as bad, Libdems actually up the most of any party and 18% not bad at all.brokenwheel said:
1983:Black_Rook said:BBC announces projected national share of the vote:
Con 38% (+3)
Lab 27% (-2)
LD 18% (+7)
Ukip 5% (-8)
Other 12% (0)
Changes since 2015.
Con 39
Lab 36
All 20
1987:
Con 38
Lab 32
All 270 -
Looking at the Leics votes (classic middle England) the most WWC areas of the county (Loughborough, Coalville, and Braunstone) went Lab, with the LDs doing best in the middle market areas like Wigston, Oadby, Harborough, and Hinckley. Tories in the Leafier and more rural bits, but also newer housing, Melton and Charnwood.SeanT said:The PNV on the locals, Baxtered, gives a Tory majority of.... 22.
Which would be pretty disastrous for TMay. An election that barely changed anything.
Clearly I reckon she will do better than that, but a moment of warning for Tories.
In other words a swing rather than a revolution.
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I've been an LDFT candidate six times and am a great believer that it makes a difference. Surveys regularly find that some 7% of voters make their decision whilst staring at the ballot paper, after all.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Parties have a number of descriptions listed with the Electoral Commission that can be used by candidates on the ballot paper. There are some Lib Dems who (wrongly I think) believe "Focus" is a strong enough brand to make it worth putting on the ballot paper.Carolus_Rex said:Question for the Lib Dems on here.
So far Kent CC has six Liberal Democrat and one "Liberal Democrat Focus Team" councillors elected.
What's the difference?
There's no formal difference beyond the description though - it's not like the Co-operative Party which stands joint candidates with Labour but is actually a separate organisation (albeit closely linked).
If you have a group elected on different labels, you just have to write a letter to the Chief Executive informing him or her that you all wish to be treated by the council as a political group.0 -
Lose Country Durham? They're almost home and dry already (yes, rural areas blah blah). I mean they had a HUGE majority to begin with.0
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Yes. Congratulations John O!Sean_F said:
Well done.TheScreamingEagles said:Hurrah, JohnO has been elected in Surrey.
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Spot on, politicos are reading far too much into what is happening: May isn't Cameron and Osborne who repelled so many natural conservatives. She is making it acceptable to vote tory again.Tykejohnno said:When the tories were getting 30 odd % in the polls and elections,I mentioned to get back over 40% was to give a referendum and get out of the EU.
In other words,the EU was holding the tory vote back.0 -
the runes for Corbyn are far worse than for Foot in 1983, and then Labour still had Scotland ( and Wales....). Got to be over 100+ for TM barring a Black Swan eventHYUFD said:
I think we are looking at 100+ landslide for May and Robertson losing his seat in ScotlandSeanT said:
Yes, it all depends how much this election mirrors the GE (being so close)Sean_F said:
An 11% lead for a governing party in local elections is huge. It's far better than the Conservatives achieved in 1983 or 1987.SeanT said:Don't understand. The swing to the Tories is much less than expected, but the Tories are at the high end of expectation in terms of seats won?
Better distribution? And will this extend to the GE?
My guess is that lots of people who didn't vote last night will certainly come out in June - to make sure Corbyn loses.
I still predict a Tory maj or 80-100. Landslide, but not annihilation for Labour.0 -
True, but in the current climate it seems less likely that there are significant numbers who say "I like my Tory councillor and will vote for her... but Corbyn's the man I want in Number 10", than "I like my Labour councillor so will vote for him... but I can't risk Corbyn next month".justin124 said:
Yes - but Tory councillors have personal votes too!AndyJS said:
If the higher Labour vote was because of personal votes for local councillors (which are almost always more significant than personal votes for MPs), it wouldn't make any difference whether people knew a general election was coming or not.justin124 said:
But there was no expectation of a general election when people voted in 1983 - unlike 1987.AndyJS said:At the 1983 locals, Labour's projected share was 34.5%. They got 28.3% at the GE 4 weeks later.
I'm sure there are such people in the great Venn diagram of politics... it just instinctively feels more niche.0 -
Thanks.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Parties have a number of descriptions listed with the Electoral Commission that can be used by candidates on the ballot paper. There are some Lib Dems who (wrongly I think) believe "Focus" is a strong enough brand to make it worth putting on the ballot paper.Carolus_Rex said:Question for the Lib Dems on here.
So far Kent CC has six Liberal Democrat and one "Liberal Democrat Focus Team" councillors elected.
What's the difference?
There's no formal difference beyond the description though - it's not like the Co-operative Party which stands joint candidates with Labour but is actually a separate organisation (albeit closely linked).0 -
Utterly OT/self-promotion, just a heads up Wandering Phoenix and Roaming Tiger should be out quite soon:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/wandering-phoenix-and-roaming-tiger.html-1 -
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)tlg86 said:
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.Typo said:Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!0 -
With 67 of 136 declared they are on 45 of the 64 needed. They have lost 10 when they would need to go on to lose 30.SeanT said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/860497843378937856
EDIT: Twitter is saying this is rubbish
Cav Empt0 -
Seal sands?MarqueeMark said:
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)tlg86 said:
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.Typo said:Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
No seals.
No sand.0 -
0
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Stephen Bush from the New Statesman has a theory about voters who don't want to vote for the winner. Up until 2010 voting Lib Dem was perfect for them, but when they actually got into power they switched to people like the Greens or UKIP. I may be mangling the details, but I think there is something to it.IanB2 said:
True, but most of it will be wasted votes improving poor third places into better third places.Paristonda said:The 7% vote share increase gives the LDs the vital nugget to claim momentum. It's clearly a disappointing night, but if the vote share increase had been minimal there would have been no good news at all to take home from this. The 7% gives them a lifeline, we can expect to hear a lot about it from Farron in the coming days.
The absolute key in the LibDem target seats is winning back the anti-Tory tactical votes that put them over the top in so many Tory seats before 2015. The political environment looks hopeful for that, particularly if there is a fear about a big majority - whether they have the resources to make it happen is another matter.0 -
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What's PNV pls?SeanT said:
I'd knock two points off Labour, and add four or so to the Tories (from UKIP, LD, SNP and Labourites all scared of Corbyn). So, something likeAndyJS said:
Doesn't match up with the Tories winning mayoral elections in Tees Valley, Bristol, possibly West Midlands.SeanT said:The PNV on the locals, Baxtered, gives a Tory majority of.... 22.
Which would be pretty disastrous for her. An election that barely changed anything.
Clearly I reckon she will do better than that, but a moment of warning for Tories.
C 42
L 25
LD 14
UKIP 4
... and all depends on Scotland.
Baxtered that gives a majority of around 100. Which is my hunch.0 -
Yesterday speculation reached 400+SquareRoot said:
465 and counting. I though Labour losses had been projected at c 150??Scott_P said:0 -
It doesn't matter how many local election results there are, people still keep projecting them onto general election results. Happens every single time, without fail. I know Smithson did a piece debunking this, but it doesn't appear to make any difference - despite the substantial evidence that the two do not correlate.0
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https://twitter.com/Politico_Daily/status/860501120178847750
This really is turning in to an ABL contest.0 -
Projected National Vote (share)0
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@SpawnofJustice: Looks like the Green Nats will prop up the SNP on Glasgow Council. Could be the final nail in their coffin.0
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Seals are back there (assuming you visit when the tide is right). Its mudflaps though so not sandy....BannedInParis said:
Seal sands?MarqueeMark said:
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)tlg86 said:
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.Typo said:Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
No seals.
No sand.0 -
Instinctively, that does feel to me where we would be if we decided to cut the crap and have the GE tomorrow.SeanT said:
I'd knock two points off Labour, and add four or so to the Tories (from UKIP, LD, SNP and Labourites all scared of Corbyn). So, something likeAndyJS said:
Doesn't match up with the Tories winning mayoral elections in Tees Valley, Bristol, possibly West Midlands.SeanT said:The PNV on the locals, Baxtered, gives a Tory majority of.... 22.
Which would be pretty disastrous for her. An election that barely changed anything.
Clearly I reckon she will do better than that, but a moment of warning for Tories.
C 42
L 25
LD 14
UKIP 4
... and all depends on Scotland.
Baxtered that gives a majority of around 100. Which is my hunch.
Still space for a bit of shift in the campaign of course, but that does smell right.0 -
Projected National (Vote/Share)Ishmael_Z said:
What's PNV pls?SeanT said:
I'd knock two points off Labour, and add four or so to the Tories (from UKIP, LD, SNP and Labourites all scared of Corbyn). So, something likeAndyJS said:
Doesn't match up with the Tories winning mayoral elections in Tees Valley, Bristol, possibly West Midlands.SeanT said:The PNV on the locals, Baxtered, gives a Tory majority of.... 22.
Which would be pretty disastrous for her. An election that barely changed anything.
Clearly I reckon she will do better than that, but a moment of warning for Tories.
C 42
L 25
LD 14
UKIP 4
... and all depends on Scotland.
Baxtered that gives a majority of around 100. Which is my hunch.0 -
No. He's a prominent Labour Leave MP in a majority Leave constituency.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you think Kelvin Hopkins is at risk?Sean_F said:
Well done.TheScreamingEagles said:Hurrah, JohnO has been elected in Surrey.
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Projected national vote, I think.Ishmael_Z said:
What's PNV pls?SeanT said:
I'd knock two points off Labour, and add four or so to the Tories (from UKIP, LD, SNP and Labourites all scared of Corbyn). So, something likeAndyJS said:
Doesn't match up with the Tories winning mayoral elections in Tees Valley, Bristol, possibly West Midlands.SeanT said:The PNV on the locals, Baxtered, gives a Tory majority of.... 22.
Which would be pretty disastrous for her. An election that barely changed anything.
Clearly I reckon she will do better than that, but a moment of warning for Tories.
C 42
L 25
LD 14
UKIP 4
... and all depends on Scotland.
Baxtered that gives a majority of around 100. Which is my hunch.0 -
More importantly, she is making it acceptable to vote Tory for the first time....freetochoose said:
Spot on, politicos are reading far too much into what is happening: May isn't Cameron and Osborne who repelled so many natural conservatives. She is making it acceptable to vote tory again.Tykejohnno said:When the tories were getting 30 odd % in the polls and elections,I mentioned to get back over 40% was to give a referendum and get out of the EU.
In other words,the EU was holding the tory vote back.0 -
So I reckon it's Con GAIN Suffolk, Con hold Northants and Devon, Lab hold Doncaster, probably edge Durham, and the Tories will be pushing for a majority in Cornwall but probably fall short.0
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@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.0
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With Corbyn around, even Katie Hopkins is at riskTheScreamingEagles said:
Do you think Kelvin Hopkins is at risk?Sean_F said:
Well done.TheScreamingEagles said:Hurrah, JohnO has been elected in Surrey.
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"Coalition of Chaos" becomes "Coalition of Strong and Stable"Rhubarb said:https://twitter.com/Politico_Daily/status/860501120178847750
This really is turning in to an ABL contest.
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The biggest factor was probably name recognition.Rhubarb said:https://twitter.com/Politico_Daily/status/860501120178847750
This really is turning in to an ABL contest.
Shows what a million quid can do.
I very much doubt he'd have won enough transfers if he hadn't spent huge amounts on non-tory branded ads before the spending limits kicked in.
Having said that, he seems like a decent enough candidate - and from what I can tell, he stuck to the campaign spending rules.0 -
I wonder what she will do with Boris, now that he is no longer a threat. Amber Rudd as next Foreign Sec?felix said:
I suspect Fox may be allowed to wither on the vine. Otherwise you may well be close to the mark. any Brexit scuppering will in fact, be down to the intransigence of the Eurocrats.Barnesian said:
It is the size of her majority which will make it easier for her to weather the storms on her backbenches when she makes major concessions on Brexit. It's not the leave/remain mix per se.rural_voter said:
I can't see how she can improve the strength of the pro-Remain position in the HoC by going for a landslide. The net change in England and Wales will probably be to replace 30-50 or so mainly Remain Labour MPs by 30-50 Tory MPs of whom 45% will be Leavers. Some, good grief, might turn out to be like Bone or Cash.Barnesian said:Where will the Kippers go when Mrs May uses her huge majority to support the EU concessions she is going to make to ensure a soft landing for Brexit in the national interest?
Will there be a resurgent UKIP party? It will be too late to do anything about the large Tory majority for the next five years.
The 45% figure is based on the stated views of the existing parliamentary party as of May 2016 when Tory MPs were split 55/45% for Remain. This split excludes MPs who refused to disclose which way they'd vote, e.g. Jesse Norman.
With a majority of 12 in theory it would only take six Bones and Cashes to vote against her. With a majority of say 150 it would take 75 backbenchers to vote against her proposal for a very soft Brexit for which she will get some support from the opposition as well. It puts her in a much stronger position for a soft Brexit if that is where her heart really is, in the national interest.
We'll soon see. The litmus test is what happens to Fox. If he is fired, my scenario is probably correct.0 -
TaSean_F said:
No. He's a prominent Labour Leave MP in a majority Leave constituency.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you think Kelvin Hopkins is at risk?Sean_F said:
Well done.TheScreamingEagles said:Hurrah, JohnO has been elected in Surrey.
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With one ward in Edinburgh to go I make it 17 SNP, 17 Con, 11 Labour, 8 Green, 6 LD0
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That is Waitrose tribalism I'd imagine.Rhubarb said:https://twitter.com/Politico_Daily/status/860501120178847750
This really is turning in to an ABL contest.0 -
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And my prediction for Liberton is 2 SNP, 1 Con, 1 Lab or maybe 2 SNP 2 Con0
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What an absurd way to declare the GM result0
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In reality, I'd expect more like 150 on those numbers. If Labour lose the West Midlands conurbation and Teesside, that's the kind of territory we're in.SeanT said:
I'd knock two points off Labour, and add four or so to the Tories (from UKIP, LD, SNP and Labourites all scared of Corbyn). So, something likeAndyJS said:
Doesn't match up with the Tories winning mayoral elections in Tees Valley, Bristol, possibly West Midlands.SeanT said:The PNV on the locals, Baxtered, gives a Tory majority of.... 22.
Which would be pretty disastrous for her. An election that barely changed anything.
Clearly I reckon she will do better than that, but a moment of warning for Tories.
C 42
L 25
LD 14
UKIP 4
... and all depends on Scotland.
Baxtered that gives a majority of around 100. Which is my hunch.0 -
After 21 seats declared in Northamptonshire Conservatives gain 3 seats0
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It's the only time he's been leader, so he's not wrong.Roger said:'Jeremy Corbyn has blamed unique circumstances for the challeninging results in the local elections'.
.....And I'd thought it was 'cos he was crap.0 -
LibDems breaking for the John Lewis guy, who'd have thought?JonWC said:
That is Waitrose tribalism I'd imagine.Rhubarb said:https://twitter.com/Politico_Daily/status/860501120178847750
This really is turning in to an ABL contest.-1 -
Perhaps she'll make Philip Holloborne Foreign Secretary.Barnesian said:
I wonder what she will do with Boris, now that he is no longer a threat. Amber Rudd as next Foreign Sec?felix said:
I suspect Fox may be allowed to wither on the vine. Otherwise you may well be close to the mark. any Brexit scuppering will in fact, be down to the intransigence of the Eurocrats.Barnesian said:
It is the size of her majority which will make it easier for her to weather the storms on her backbenches when she makes major concessions on Brexit. It's not the leave/remain mix per se.rural_voter said:
I can't see how she can improve the strength of the pro-Remain position in the HoC by going for a landslide. The net change in England and Wales will probably be to replace 30-50 or so mainly Remain Labour MPs by 30-50 Tory MPs of whom 45% will be Leavers. Some, good grief, might turn out to be like Bone or Cash.Barnesian said:Where will the Kippers go when Mrs May uses her huge majority to support the EU concessions she is going to make to ensure a soft landing for Brexit in the national interest?
Will there be a resurgent UKIP party? It will be too late to do anything about the large Tory majority for the next five years.
The 45% figure is based on the stated views of the existing parliamentary party as of May 2016 when Tory MPs were split 55/45% for Remain. This split excludes MPs who refused to disclose which way they'd vote, e.g. Jesse Norman.
With a majority of 12 in theory it would only take six Bones and Cashes to vote against her. With a majority of say 150 it would take 75 backbenchers to vote against her proposal for a very soft Brexit for which she will get some support from the opposition as well. It puts her in a much stronger position for a soft Brexit if that is where her heart really is, in the national interest.
We'll soon see. The litmus test is what happens to Fox. If he is fired, my scenario is probably correct.0 -
You mean they are back because of all the abandoned cars?eek said:
Seals are back there (assuming you visit when the tide is right). Its mudflaps though so not sandy....BannedInParis said:
Seal sands?MarqueeMark said:
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)tlg86 said:
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.Typo said:Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
No seals.
No sand.0 -
The TV coverage drives me mad - neither Sky or BBC producers understood how the Manchester declaration would happen? Seriously?
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But Luton North was a safe Tory seat until 1997 represented by John Carlisle.Sean_F said:
No. He's a prominent Labour Leave MP in a majority Leave constituency.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you think Kelvin Hopkins is at risk?Sean_F said:
Well done.TheScreamingEagles said:Hurrah, JohnO has been elected in Surrey.
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Our Keiran tweets:Scott_P said:@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/8604913740550922250 -
There are seals!BannedInParis said:
Seal sands?MarqueeMark said:
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)tlg86 said:
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.Typo said:Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
No seals.
No sand.0 -
That's still an increase in the SNP Council election vote.SeanT said:
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.Scott_P said:@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.
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Where?Freggles said:
There are seals!BannedInParis said:
Seal sands?MarqueeMark said:
I have been to the greater Middlesbrough area loads of times - for some reason, it attracts loads of rare birds. Very good for rare waders, terns and gulls. (Possibly, it is just that the acid fumes floating above the city blind them.)tlg86 said:
Yeah, but who the **** wants to go to Middlesbrough? It's a bit far away for the journos and it makes Liverpool look positively delightful.Typo said:Bit daft of news networks to be live at the Liverpool mayoral count (where the result has never been in doubt) and miss the big story in the Tees Valley (which is obviously a far more marginal area).
Also, Farron spinning like a Jenny!
No seals.
No sand.
https://media.tenor.co/images/1071ac1c02d0c33c5a62b2c570b72496/tenor.gif0 -
Astonishingly good results for the Conservatives in Edinburgh, coming first in most wards. Very poor result for the SNP and good result for the Greens. The Greens will switch back tactically to the SNP for the Westminster elections, but based on these results, I would say the Conservatives are likely to win Edinburgh South West and have a good chance of powering past the SNP and Labour to win Edinburgh South (still waiting on results from the normally SNP Gilmerton ward, which is part of Edinburgh South). The Lib Dems should easily win Edinburgh West, with the remaining two seats SNP holds.0
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More heroic spinning from Labour: Tories apparently not doing very well because they aren't winning in Greater Manchester. Ignoring the fact that, if the Tories were winning in Greater Manchester, Labour would probably be looking at a sub-100 seat finish in the GE.
With Labour dead everywhere in southern England and in most of the Midlands as well, save (pretty much) for core Birmingham, inner London and a few university towns, the Tories don't need Greater Manchester, frankly.0 -
Credit to Barry, he is pretty much the only Corbynite who comes across as half way intelligent and credibleAndyJS said:
BBC busy showing a conversation between Peter Kellner and Barry Gardiner.DearPB said:The TV coverage drives me mad - neither Sky or BBC producers understood how the Manchester declaration would happen? Seriously?
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The correct thing to do if confident would be so say, yes lets have a vote but legally lock in no more IndyRefs for 30 years.SeanT said:
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.Scott_P said:@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.0 -
It took in a fair chunk of rural Bedfordshire until 1997, and Luton Town has shifted towards Labour. And Hopkins probably has a personal vote.justin124 said:
But Luton North was a safe Tory seat until 1997 represented by John Carlisle.Sean_F said:
No. He's a prominent Labour Leave MP in a majority Leave constituency.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you think Kelvin Hopkins is at risk?Sean_F said:
Well done.TheScreamingEagles said:Hurrah, JohnO has been elected in Surrey.
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She might have to resign as leader if the Tories do as well in Scotland as these local results indicate.SeanT said:
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.Scott_P said:@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.0 -
Thank you (all)SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Projected national vote, I think.Ishmael_Z said:
What's PNV pls?SeanT said:
I'd knock two points off Labour, and add four or so to the Tories (from UKIP, LD, SNP and Labourites all scared of Corbyn). So, something likeAndyJS said:
Doesn't match up with the Tories winning mayoral elections in Tees Valley, Bristol, possibly West Midlands.SeanT said:The PNV on the locals, Baxtered, gives a Tory majority of.... 22.
Which would be pretty disastrous for her. An election that barely changed anything.
Clearly I reckon she will do better than that, but a moment of warning for Tories.
C 42
L 25
LD 14
UKIP 4
... and all depends on Scotland.
Baxtered that gives a majority of around 100. Which is my hunch.0 -
It depends entirely upon the 2019 Brexit backlash.Alistair said:
The correct thing to do if confident would be so say, yes lets have a vote but legally lock in no more IndyRefs for 30 years.SeanT said:
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.Scott_P said:@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.0 -
I wonder how long Salmond's going to keep repeating 'Tories = UKIP'.......SeanT said:
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.Scott_P said:@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.0 -
Remember SNP don't even have a majority in Scot Parliament today. They only just get over the line with the Greens.SeanT said:
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.Scott_P said:@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.
Any modest losses in 2021 and then SNP + Green won't have a majority.
Which will mean Game Over.0 -
Looks like a thumping win for Burnham in GM.
Bugger. I fear this man could become my bete noir in the next few years. Don't trust him.0 -
Liberton is in and as I predicted SNP x 2, Lab, Con
I think that makes it SNP 19, Con 18 and Lab 12
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In Cornwall, they're 21/65 so far (21 LD, 15 Ind, 5 Lab, 3 MK). Just over halfway through the ridiculously large number of seats. They'll be reasonably pleased, and heading to largest party status, but really hard to take control in a council where Indies are a factor and several parties are active in pockets, and seems unlikely.TheWhiteRabbit said:So I reckon it's Con GAIN Suffolk, Con hold Northants and Devon, Lab hold Doncaster, probably edge Durham, and the Tories will be pushing for a majority in Cornwall but probably fall short.
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I think the Tories will do it in the West Midlands, based on that high turnout in Solihull.0
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Legal lock ins of that kind are looking a bit silly atm.Alistair said:
The correct thing to do if confident would be so say, yes lets have a vote but legally lock in no more IndyRefs for 30 years.SeanT said:
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.Scott_P said:@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.0 -
Looking forward to the next episode of The Men in the Shadows on More 4 tonight - I just wish they hadn't translated the title as simply 'Spin'0
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Look like Lib Dems will come out with a similar number compared to dissolution (43/123). It's about how many the Tories can get. I suspect a similar, maybe slightly lower number (let's say 38/123).SeanT said:Tories now 8 seats up in Cornwall. I don't see a Lib Dem comeback, there.
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Karen Bradley talking about problems in House of Lords - so why won't May appoint a stack more Con Peers?0
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Looks like Barry Gardiner has lost his mind live on national TV. Labour meltdown.0
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No government can bind its successor - even if the SNP did 'agree' to that, what's to stop them fighting another election on a SindyRef manifesto?Alistair said:
The correct thing to do if confident would be so say, yes lets have a vote but legally lock in no more IndyRefs for 30 years.SeanT said:
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.Scott_P said:@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.0 -
Tim set off for Cambridge and ended up in St Albans!0
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Barry Gardiner moaning about a decision his party supported in the HoC. Idiot.SeanT said:
I can't see that. She's the best they've got.AndyJS said:
She might have to resign as leader if the Tories do as well in Scotland as these local results indicate.SeanT said:
That pretty much kills off indyref2. The SNP needed momentum, and the sense of an angry nation demanding a vote.Scott_P said:@Mike_Blackley: John Curtice says it looks like a 'disappointing' result for SNP compared to expectations. Unlikely to pass 40%.
If this is repeated at the GE in june, TMay will say NO MANDATE, and deny a vote, and force the Nats to win another vote at Holyrood in 2021.
Which might be hard for Sturgeon, given her gentle decline at the moment.
There's a pathetic bunch of Nats and Labourites on the BBC mewling and complaining that TMay has been so mean and devious, and called an election when they are weak. Because, of course, they would never do that.
SHUT UP YOU WETWIPES0 -
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Luton of today bears little resemblance to the Luton of 1997. The churn of residents is remarkably high.justin124 said:
But Luton North was a safe Tory seat until 1997 represented by John Carlisle.Sean_F said:
No. He's a prominent Labour Leave MP in a majority Leave constituency.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you think Kelvin Hopkins is at risk?Sean_F said:
Well done.TheScreamingEagles said:Hurrah, JohnO has been elected in Surrey.
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