politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Branding the Tories totally around Theresa has made it easier
Comments
-
Very shortly there will be a second round in which Sion Simon will increase his majority0
-
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?0 -
I meant it was all over for Labour in the GE, not Corbyn. He'll hang on whatever the result.JosiasJessop said:
I don't think it is. If Labour lose the mayoraltys (e.g. Manchester) then the pressure really will be back on Corbyn. Doubt that will happen, and not sure what they could do about him anyway.Jason said:
Yes it is.JosiasJessop said:
I'm unsure if I count as non-Tory persuasion, but I'd say it's currently a five. It's not as bad is it could be, and it looks like he'll beat Labour's worst predictions - e.g. they've held Cardiff. Other areas look expectedly bad.bobajobPB said:I am still too busy at work to keep up with this. Can someone of a neutral and unexcitable none Tory persuasion (e.g. Alastair) give me the OK/FUBAR level for Corbyn on a scale of 1-10. Cheers!
Corbyn will stay on until the GE (there's little point in getting rid of him before then anyway).
But it's not over yet ...
So far, there's enough 'good' for his fans and wider Labour to point at. And that's probably another victory for the Conservtives today ...
0 -
Whatever his virtues, I think that the time of the Moderate Messiah has passed (not that it ever really arrived: his party went backwards in 2010.) And most of the electorate will not be going to vote whilst drunk or high on drugs either. Hence this particular plan has a low probability of success.williamglenn said:
Imagine if the Lib Dems did a quick leadership shuffle, and then Labour MPs said that Clegg was their choice for PM in a coalition, not Corbyn.Beverley_C said:
He may be the LDs best optionRoger said:
I'd like to see Clegg do a LazarusBeverley_C said:Rather than obsessing about "Will Corbyn resign?", given the LD's rubbish showing will Farron resign?
0 -
0
-
It certainly isn't ALL that matters because the Lib Dems wanted some momentum out of this set of locals and plainly haven't got it.logical_song said:
Once the dust settles it would be interesting to see how the Libdems have done in their target seats and seats they once held. That's all that matters for the GE.Scott_P said:
That said, you are right that it DOES matter, and the indicators so far are reasonably promising (though not electrifying) from those I've looked at.0 -
Ah, sorry.Jason said:
I meant it was all over for Labour in the GE, not Corbyn. He'll hang on whatever the result.JosiasJessop said:
I don't think it is. If Labour lose the mayoraltys (e.g. Manchester) then the pressure really will be back on Corbyn. Doubt that will happen, and not sure what they could do about him anyway.Jason said:
Yes it is.JosiasJessop said:
I'm unsure if I count as non-Tory persuasion, but I'd say it's currently a five. It's not as bad is it could be, and it looks like he'll beat Labour's worst predictions - e.g. they've held Cardiff. Other areas look expectedly bad.bobajobPB said:I am still too busy at work to keep up with this. Can someone of a neutral and unexcitable none Tory persuasion (e.g. Alastair) give me the OK/FUBAR level for Corbyn on a scale of 1-10. Cheers!
Corbyn will stay on until the GE (there's little point in getting rid of him before then anyway).
But it's not over yet ...
So far, there's enough 'good' for his fans and wider Labour to point at. And that's probably another victory for the Conservtives today ...0 -
@severincarrell: So: @ScotTories resurgence brings them neck & neck @theSNP in Stirling, with 9 seats each, after SNP lose one & Tories gain 5 #Council170
-
WM Mayoral: Simon now 21k ahead including Birmingham. He's going to be ahead on 1st preferences and further ahead on 2nd I think.
0 -
Hope everyone followed my adviceTheScreamingEagles said:Very shortly there will be a second round in which Sion Simon will increase his majority
0 -
Sion Simon to squeak it?0
-
It looks like Labour's losses in England will be in the range of 150 - 180. Pretty poor -though not on the scale predicted by Fisher.0
-
@britainelects: Labour's Steve Rotheram wins Liverpool City Region mayoralty outright.0
-
The seats that I was campaigning in at the weekend have gone yellow, including the one of the PPC for Bosworth. Leics has a very nice map online:HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
https://www.leicestershire.gov.uk/about-the-council/how-the-council-works/elections/election-2017/4470 -
TSE - I have some bad news for you ..... just as I was deseverdly on the cusp of winning this award, it was scrapped by OGH, largely as a result of outright cheating by a certain PB old timer someone pipping PtP and yours truly to this much coveted prize.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm going to be tipster of the year for tipping Tories over 9.5 seats in Scotland at 20/1 if that comes off.Alistair said:Regretting laying off some of my SCon over 9.5 seats bet now.
I still think 4 to 6 seats more likely.0 -
Yes, all those by election victories aren't looking so great now.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
Actually, I think you were beaten to it by GeoffM.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm going to be tipster of the year for tipping Tories over 9.5 seats in Scotland at 20/1 if that comes off.Alistair said:Regretting laying off some of my SCon over 9.5 seats bet now.
I still think 4 to 6 seats more likely.0 -
Alas not.Pulpstar said:
Hope everyone followed my adviceTheScreamingEagles said:Very shortly there will be a second round in which Sion Simon will increase his majority
0 -
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?0 -
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.NickPalmer said:
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.SouthamObserver said:The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
0 -
-
He'll bring it back when I do the double, that bet and when either Richard Burgon or Diane Abbott become next Labour leader, tipped at 100/1 by yours truly.peter_from_putney said:
TSE - I have some bad news for you ..... just as I was deseverdly on the cusp of winning this award, it was scrapped by OGH, largely as a result of outright cheating by a certain PB old timer someone pipping PtP and yours truly to this much coveted prize.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm going to be tipster of the year for tipping Tories over 9.5 seats in Scotland at 20/1 if that comes off.Alistair said:Regretting laying off some of my SCon over 9.5 seats bet now.
I still think 4 to 6 seats more likely.0 -
@BBCPhilipSim: Four more Glasgow wards declared: Tories pick up two more seats; tied with Greens on 5 apiece now. SNP on 15, Labour 12.0
-
General Election @UKGenElect
Scotland #LE2017 Seats
SNP 88 (+4)
INDY 77 (-3)
CON 53 (+32)
LAB 51 (-33)
LD 4 (-1)
GRN 2 (+1)
10/32 Councils declared0 -
@KateEMcCann: Messaged Labour MP to ask what happens now, their reply: "The charge of the light brigade". Oof.0
-
Tony Blair nailed it.Richard_Nabavi said:
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
"Never underestimate the Tories; never overestimate the Liberal Democrats"0 -
Scottish voters now clearly see the Tories as the go to party for competent secessionism. The SNP have lost their USP.-1
-
Barry Gardiner seems to have confused the Birmingham result with the entire first round vote for WM Mayor...
unfortunate0 -
GeoffM tipped it first.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm going to be tipster of the year for tipping Tories over 9.5 seats in Scotland at 20/1 if that comes off.Alistair said:Regretting laying off some of my SCon over 9.5 seats bet now.
I still think 4 to 6 seats more likely.0 -
Caveat - I am now running a bit behind the BBC numbers.Richard_Nabavi said:
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
0 -
Steve Liverpool becomes Mayor of Rotherham0
-
Dudley a big win for StreetIanB2 said:
Mike Wood @mikejwood 5m5 minutes ago
More
Amazing result in Dudley. Andy Street 31858; Lab 17731; UKIP 56380 -
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!Richard_Nabavi said:
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?0 -
That was an image that came to my mind a few days ago for what's left of the Labour Centre-LeftScott_P said:@KateEMcCann: Messaged Labour MP to ask what happens now, their reply: "The charge of the light brigade". Oof.
0 -
Hush you!Casino_Royale said:
GeoffM tipped it first.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm going to be tipster of the year for tipping Tories over 9.5 seats in Scotland at 20/1 if that comes off.Alistair said:Regretting laying off some of my SCon over 9.5 seats bet now.
I still think 4 to 6 seats more likely.
Don't ruin my fun.
It was literally crossover, he tipped it first as I was writing the thread header on it.0 -
Can see them gaining Eastbourne, and a few of the SW London seats from the Tories.Alistair said:
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!Richard_Nabavi said:
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Simon Hughes is another gain.
Edit: Also, the home of the finest university in the universe0 -
Could Dudley and Solihull tip this for Street?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Dudley a big win for StreetIanB2 said:
Mike Wood @mikejwood 5m5 minutes ago
More
Amazing result in Dudley. Andy Street 31858; Lab 17731; UKIP 56380 -
Cambridge. Maybe something down on the south coast? I think that may be offset by losses, though.Alistair said:
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!Richard_Nabavi said:
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?0 -
Fooking come on Andy..0
-
What's the latest word on the Street?0
-
not looking good it feels to me even with solihull to repair the damage?Casino_Royale said:
Could Dudley and Solihull tip this for Street?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Dudley a big win for StreetIanB2 said:
Mike Wood @mikejwood 5m5 minutes ago
More
Amazing result in Dudley. Andy Street 31858; Lab 17731; UKIP 5638
https://twitter.com/BenChapmanITV/status/8604761668425687040 -
More Scottish Labour voters see them as the go to party for competent unionismwilliamglenn said:Scottish voters now clearly see the Tories as the go to party for competent secessionism. The SNP have lost their USP.
0 -
In heory yes, but Southam was talking about these results. And FWIW I don't think the GE figures will be very different unless there are major new developments. As I said in an earlier post, in 11 hours I only met two voters who said they'd vote differently in the GE (naturally we asked). My impression is that people who dislike Corbyn enough to switch from Labour have now done so, and the current figures are correct. Which are, as I predicted and as we're now seeing, poor but not as bad as the polls have been suggesting.Black_Rook said:
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.NickPalmer said:
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.SouthamObserver said:The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
I wonder if the polls have now been over-tweaked after the 2015 meltdown and now underestimate Labour turnout?0 -
Argh. Shit.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not looking good it feels to me even with solihull to repair the damage?Casino_Royale said:
Could Dudley and Solihull tip this for Street?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Dudley a big win for StreetIanB2 said:
Mike Wood @mikejwood 5m5 minutes ago
More
Amazing result in Dudley. Andy Street 31858; Lab 17731; UKIP 5638
https://twitter.com/BenChapmanITV/status/860476166842568704
Donkeys.0 -
Do we really see them winning those? Against a static Tory party I might agree that there are SW gains but this is a Tory party that is surging.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can see them gaining Eastbourne, and a few of the SW London seats from the Tories.Alistair said:
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!Richard_Nabavi said:
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Simon Hughes is another gain.
Edit: Also, the home of the finest university in the country.0 -
I'm in California at the moment, and I can hear the klaxon from here!MTimT said:
Mr. Knox, how dare you! No klaxon alert. Think of all the triggers you've set off. Naughty corner for you!SeanT said:So the most remarkable performance seems to be by the Scottish Conservatives
Or maybe it's the warning for a North Korean nuclear attack. Not sure.0 -
Eastbourne, Oxford W, Cambridge, Bath, Thornbury and Bristol W all look in play, possibly Lewes. It depends on whether yesterday's Tory dominance takes a knock over the next five weeks.mwadams said:Alistair said:
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!Richard_Nabavi said:
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Cambridge. Maybe something down on the south coast? I think that may be offset by losses, though.Alistair said:
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!Richard_Nabavi said:
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?0 -
Sandwell gone to Simon now so Street needs a big win in SolihullScrapheap_as_was said:
Dudley a big win for StreetIanB2 said:
Mike Wood @mikejwood 5m5 minutes ago
More
Amazing result in Dudley. Andy Street 31858; Lab 17731; UKIP 56380 -
0
-
Can Sion Simon be killed?-1
-
Cambridge, Twickenham, Lewes, Kingston & Surbiton, possibly Bath, and maybe two or three others on top of that if they are having a good night. I still think that the polls are under-rating them by a few points, although it will be interesting to see if the projected national vote share gives any credence to that notion.Alistair said:
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!Richard_Nabavi said:
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
And local elections ≠ general elections, of course.0 -
-
Thanks, Doc, I am glad you have had some personal successes. However, the fact remains that in terms of seats, at least, the Lib Dems seem, so far, to have gone backwards. Not quite the launch pad for the GE that some on here were predicting.foxinsoxuk said:
The seats that I was campaigning in at the weekend have gone yellow, including the one of the PPC for Bosworth. Leics has a very nice map online:HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
https://www.leicestershire.gov.uk/about-the-council/how-the-council-works/elections/election-2017/447
I think I had better get the bus up to the local town again tomorrow and see about getting a few quid on Lib Dems <11 seats at the GE.0 -
that tweet said he'd lost Sandwell 55/45HYUFD said:
Solihull will be Street's biggest victory margin and he could take Sandwell too, still tightScrapheap_as_was said:
Dudley a big win for StreetIanB2 said:
Mike Wood @mikejwood 5m5 minutes ago
More
Amazing result in Dudley. Andy Street 31858; Lab 17731; UKIP 56380 -
Was that a joke?Casino_Royale said:Can Sion Simon be killed?
0 -
0
-
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Tory source: "Looking good in West Midlands mayor. We'll be slightly ahead on 1st preferences. Not 100% though".
0 -
They polls suggest (especially after you take NI into account) that Labour will be slightly down but the Tories massively up. Today's results show Labour.slightly down but the Tories massively up. How does it differ from th e polls?NickPalmer said:
In heory yes, but Southam was talking about these results. And FWIW I don't think the GE figures will be very different unless there are major new developments. As I said in an earlier post, in 11 hours I only met two voters who said they'd vote differently in the GE (naturally we asked). My impression is that people who dislike Corbyn enough to switch from Labour have now done so, and the current figures are correct. Which are, as I predicted and as we're now seeing, poor but not as bad as the polls have been suggesting.Black_Rook said:
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.NickPalmer said:
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.SouthamObserver said:The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
I wonder if the polls have now been over-tweaked after the 2015 meltdown and now underestimate Labour turnout?0 -
Yes.Pong said:
Was that a joke?Casino_Royale said:Can Sion Simon be killed?
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase0 -
Referencing the title of THAT blog post. So yes, but not in as poor taste as you think.Pong said:
Was that a joke?Casino_Royale said:Can Sion Simon be killed?
0 -
Street wins first round in West Midlands
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2017/05/05/west-midlands-mayor-result---live-updates-as-region-chooses-its-new-leader/0 -
Tories end up +19 on Derbyshire!0
-
Presumably ref to this:Pong said:
Was that a joke?Casino_Royale said:Can Sion Simon be killed?
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
0 -
Win or lose, remember that the fact you're even talking about a potential CON win is amazing in itself.Casino_Royale said:
Argh. Shit.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not looking good it feels to me even with solihull to repair the damage?Casino_Royale said:
Could Dudley and Solihull tip this for Street?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Dudley a big win for StreetIanB2 said:
Mike Wood @mikejwood 5m5 minutes ago
More
Amazing result in Dudley. Andy Street 31858; Lab 17731; UKIP 5638
https://twitter.com/BenChapmanITV/status/860476166842568704
Donkeys.0 -
29 000 majority for Street in Solihull takes him into a narrow overall lead
https://mobile.twitter.com/neilelkes/status/8604771350682869760 -
I don't see that from the results tweeted so far. Although we are relying on Faisal for some of them.Slackbladder said:(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
Tory source: "Looking good in West Midlands mayor. We'll be slightly ahead on 1st preferences. Not 100% though".0 -
From Lab:Alistair said:Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Cambridge
Bermondsey and Old Southwark?
Burnley?
From Con:
Twickenham
Eastbourne?
Richmond Park?
But they might also lose to Con:
Carshalton and Wallington
Southport
So they'd end up with something like 16 on a good day, 10-12 on a mediocre day, and conceivably could do even worse than that.
0 -
-
@neilelkes: So Lab wins Brum by 22k but told Solihull could be 29k in Tory's favour. #wmmayor0
-
-
Street has won the 1st round after Solihull declared now into runoff0
-
Yup, I was relying on everyone else on this blog to get that.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Pong said:
Was that a joke?Casino_Royale said:Can Sion Simon be killed?
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Else I get OGH or myself in trouble :-O0 -
I
LOVE
SOLIHULL0 -
0
-
In the real world, don't forget it's the last day you can spend the old fivers...0
-
I myself was wondering if the adjustment had been made in the other direction. A lot of the polls are now showing Labour in the range 28-30%. The notion that Labour might be doing as well as under Brown or even EdM in its present wretched state is difficult to take seriously - although, as always, one stands to be disproved by events.NickPalmer said:
In heory yes, but Southam was talking about these results. And FWIW I don't think the GE figures will be very different unless there are major new developments. As I said in an earlier post, in 11 hours I only met two voters who said they'd vote differently in the GE (naturally we asked). My impression is that people who dislike Corbyn enough to switch from Labour have now done so, and the current figures are correct. Which are, as I predicted and as we're now seeing, poor but not as bad as the polls have been suggesting.Black_Rook said:
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.NickPalmer said:
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.SouthamObserver said:The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
I wonder if the polls have now been over-tweaked after the 2015 meltdown and now underestimate Labour turnout?0 -
Inverclyde
Labour 8 (-3)
SNP 7
Con 2 (+1)
Ind 4 (+3)
LibDem 1 (-1=
0 -
@OliverCooper: West Midlands first round:
Conservatives: 216,253 (42%)
Labour: 210,259 (41%)
Lib Dems: 30,378 (6%)
UKIP: 29,051 (6%)
Greens: 24,260 (5%)0 -
-
Tighter than a ferret's arsehole.welford said:Street wins first round in West Midlands
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2017/05/05/west-midlands-mayor-result---live-updates-as-region-chooses-its-new-leader/0 -
IanB2 said:
In the real world, don't forget it's the last day you can spend the old fivers...
You'll always be able to exchange them at a bank though.
0 -
Lib Dems will break for the Tories.Casino_Royale said:
Tighter than a ferret's arsehole.welford said:Street wins first round in West Midlands
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2017/05/05/west-midlands-mayor-result---live-updates-as-region-chooses-its-new-leader/0 -
Wow that is going to be close, all depends how the Lib dems split (assumeing green to labour and UKIP to tory).Scott_P said:@OliverCooper: West Midlands first round:
Conservatives: 216,253 (42%)
Labour: 210,259 (41%)
Lib Dems: 30,378 (6%)
UKIP: 29,051 (6%)
Greens: 24,260 (5%)0 -
@jessicaelgot: Conservative Andy Street just 1% ahead of Labour's Sion Simon. 2nd prefs hard to call - LDs & Ukip have just over 300 votes between them0
-
UKIP preferences will go heavily to Street and LD preferences will be split so I think Street has done it just as there are more UKIP than Green preferencesScott_P said:@OliverCooper: West Midlands first round:
Conservatives: 216,253 (42%)
Labour: 210,259 (41%)
Lib Dems: 30,378 (6%)
UKIP: 29,051 (6%)
Greens: 24,260 (5%)0 -
UKIP ->ToryScott_P said:@OliverCooper: West Midlands first round:
Conservatives: 216,253 (42%)
Labour: 210,259 (41%)
Lib Dems: 30,378 (6%)
UKIP: 29,051 (6%)
Greens: 24,260 (5%)
Green -> Labour
Leaves a Tory lead of 10k with just 30k LD transfers up for grabs?0 -
Presumably almost all Greens and Communists will go red. Most purples will probably go blue. I guess it comes down to the Lib Dems?Scott_P said:@OliverCooper: West Midlands first round:
Conservatives: 216,253 (42%)
Labour: 210,259 (41%)
Lib Dems: 30,378 (6%)
UKIP: 29,051 (6%)
Greens: 24,260 (5%)0 -
Interesting results in the Borders Councils0
-
4 Tories elected in the Rhondda!
But Labour held on
Lab 46
Plaid 12
Con 4
Ind 3
LD 1
Cynon Valley Party 1
5 left to declare0 -
@DavidMundellDCT: .@ScotTories top poll and elected at stage 1 in all 11 D&G Wards declaredAlistair said:Interesting results in the Borders Councils
0 -
You can exchange them at your own bank for a while; thereafter you can always go to the BoE.MarkHopkins said:IanB2 said:In the real world, don't forget it's the last day you can spend the old fivers...
You'll always be able to exchange them at a bank though.0 -
Ukip latest:
@NCPoliticsUK
UKIP wins first 2017 seat in former BNP heartland of Burnley. UKIP now tied with the Cornish nationalists for 8th largest party in England.
In other news, Labour down a net 258 seats so far. I'm not sure how much is still left to be declared, but Dr Fisher's prediction of a loss of 315 seats may not be too wide of the mark.0 -
I think a chunk of UKIP will go to Simon. Lot of "old school" Labour in there. Hope I'm wrong but I think Simon is going to take it.chestnut said:
UKIP ->ToryScott_P said:@OliverCooper: West Midlands first round:
Conservatives: 216,253 (42%)
Labour: 210,259 (41%)
Lib Dems: 30,378 (6%)
UKIP: 29,051 (6%)
Greens: 24,260 (5%)
Green -> Labour
Leaves a Tory lead of 10k with just 30k LD transfers up for grabs?0 -
Where will the Kippers go when Mrs May uses her huge majority to support the EU concessions she is going to make to ensure a soft landing for Brexit in the national interest?
Will there be a resurgent UKIP party? It will be too late to do anything about the large Tory majority for the next five years.
0 -
Why not poll under 16s? Or is that illegal?williamglenn said:The young are still solid Remainers.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/860479121406664705
Wastage of second preferences should be much lower than in West of England.Slackbladder said:
Wow that is going to be close, all depends how the Lib dems split (assumeing green to labour and UKIP to tory).Scott_P said:@OliverCooper: West Midlands first round:
Conservatives: 216,253 (42%)
Labour: 210,259 (41%)
Lib Dems: 30,378 (6%)
UKIP: 29,051 (6%)
Greens: 24,260 (5%)0 -
It always amuses me that Labour and Lancashire have the same symbol. When was Lancashire last Tory controlled?Scott_P said:0 -
Hull?Alistair said:
Do we really see them winning those? Against a static Tory party I might agree that there are SW gains but this is a Tory party that is surging.TheScreamingEagles said:
Can see them gaining Eastbourne, and a few of the SW London seats from the Tories.Alistair said:
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!Richard_Nabavi said:
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.HurstLlama said:I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Simon Hughes is another gain.
Edit: Also, the home of the finest university in the country.0
