politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Branding the Tories totally around Theresa has made it easier
Comments
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@NickP
What's the chance of Conservative majority control of Notts? With 30 seats to declare they seem to be 11 short, and looking at the map only of previous seats, it looks like at least 4 or 5 of the remaining seats were Tory previously.0 -
Maybe if the rest of the EU had been paying more attention when David Cameron warned them of Juncker's unsuitability for the job, we might not have had Brexit at all.Stark_Dawning said:
The eurosceptic Tory Right seem more obsessed with obscure EU functionaries now that we've left than they ever were when we were a member. Shame - if they'd had paid that much attention at the time, perhaps we could have shaped the EU to be much more to our liking.Beverley_C said:
Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.AlastairMeeks said:
Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.Baskerville said:
He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?AlastairMeeks said:
What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.Baskerville said:
Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.SeanT said:
Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.Big_G_NorthWales said:Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.
Someone needs to hook him off0 -
OMG the FT being anti Brexit.. stop the presses!!!williamglenn said:The FT ponders whether a committed Remain government could possibly do more to sabotage Brexit than what May is doing.
https://www.ft.com/content/ea5c01f1-3aca-3517-a42b-4cfe439243f30 -
@murdo_fraser: Swing from SNP to @ScotTories in Blairgowrie is 20.75%!!!!0
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If the SNP are seen to be losing momentum and a referendum clearly goes off the table, what's the likelihood of their vote receding dramatically in UKIP style, but to 20% rather than 4% ?
Not this time round, but next time.0 -
It will be. There'll be a whacking big hole in the top left corner where we used to be.Stark_Dawning said:
The eurosceptic Tory Right seem more obsessed with obscure EU functionaries now that we've left than they ever were when we were a member. Shame - if they'd had paid that much attention at the time, perhaps we could have shaped the EU to be much more to our liking.Beverley_C said:
Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.AlastairMeeks said:
Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.Baskerville said:
He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?AlastairMeeks said:
What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.Baskerville said:
Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.SeanT said:
Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.Big_G_NorthWales said:Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.
Someone needs to hook him off0 -
I don't think she's sabotaging it in the sense that it will prevent the Glorious Leaving. It is sabotage in the sense that it's obviously going to be a five star, fur lined, ocean going fuck up for both sides.williamglenn said:The FT ponders whether a committed Remain government could possibly do more to sabotage Brexit than what May is doing.
https://www.ft.com/content/ea5c01f1-3aca-3517-a42b-4cfe439243f30 -
UKIP take South Oxhey and Eastbury
South Oxhey was won by the BNP about 10 years ago iirc.0 -
Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?0 -
LOL. I want the like button backwelshowl said:
It will be. There'll be a whacking big hole in the top left corner where we used to be.Stark_Dawning said:
The eurosceptic Tory Right seem more obsessed with obscure EU functionaries now that we've left than they ever were when we were a member. Shame - if they'd had paid that much attention at the time, perhaps we could have shaped the EU to be much more to our liking.Beverley_C said:
Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.AlastairMeeks said:
Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.Baskerville said:
He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?AlastairMeeks said:
What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.Baskerville said:
Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.SeanT said:
Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.Big_G_NorthWales said:Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.
Someone needs to hook him off
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Ah, there's a third Hucknall seat (West) and the Tories won that too. So 3 gains there and 1 in Retford. Before today scores were Lab 34, Con 21, LDs 8, Indies 3. Currently Con +4, Lab -3, LDs -1. Not sure what other marginals are still to come - the north of the county is a mystery to me.0
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I voted remain and even then disliked Junckers. He is a buffoon and is the the President of the Commission - but to you he is obscure. You couldn't make it upStark_Dawning said:
The eurosceptic Tory Right seem more obsessed with obscure EU functionaries now that we've left than they ever were when we were a member. Shame - if they'd had paid that much attention at the time, perhaps we could have shaped the EU to be much more to our liking.Beverley_C said:
Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.AlastairMeeks said:
Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.Baskerville said:
He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?AlastairMeeks said:
What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.Baskerville said:
Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.SeanT said:
Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.Big_G_NorthWales said:Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.
Someone needs to hook him off0 -
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Being Out is going to be much more to my liking, cheers.Stark_Dawning said:
The eurosceptic Tory Right seem more obsessed with obscure EU functionaries now that we've left than they ever were when we were a member. Shame - if they'd had paid that much attention at the time, perhaps we could have shaped the EU to be much more to our liking.Beverley_C said:
Besides, who cares if Junckers loses influence? That is his problem.AlastairMeeks said:
Get a grip. The reaction from most sane Britons, never mind your average Eurocrat, will be that if the more lunatic Leavers can't spot a joke, that's their problem not his.Baskerville said:
He owes his position to the EU27 heads of government. If he keeps on like this, he will be sidelined from Brexit totally and his influence in other areas diminished... what's the Luxembourgish for loose cannon?AlastairMeeks said:
What's sensitive about the current time? He has no reason to care how febrile public opinion is in Britain, especially if Theresa May has opted to pour petrol on the flames. That's her problem, not the EU's.Baskerville said:
Worth noting that verbal jokes rarely work as well when written down and vice versa. You'd have thought a 'politician' as experienced as J-C Juncker would know this and take care at such a sensitive time, just days after his loose language had already put him on the naughty step.SeanT said:
Actually, if you watch the full clip, it's clearly a sardonic joke. A little dig at the English, but a joke nonetheless. He knows the reality of English language hegemony.Big_G_NorthWales said:Juncker's crass comments about English language just shown live on BBC.
Someone needs to hook him off0 -
I'm glad David Bookbinder's lived to see this day ...RobD said:Derbyshire - LAB -13, CON +12, LD+1
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BBC expecting conservative majority controlRobinWiggs said:@NickP
What's the chance of Conservative majority control of Notts? With 30 seats to declare they seem to be 11 short, and looking at the map only of previous seats, it looks like at least 4 or 5 of the remaining seats were Tory previously.0 -
Grew up in the Retford East ward - quite m.class compared to some of Bassetlaw especially Worksop - so probably not a great guide for the general election. John Mann has a very solid personal vote too.JonWC said:
Does that mean Con gain Bassetlaw in June? It's an area which ought to trend Tory now the mining is gone.NickPalmer said:First Tory gain from Labour in Notts - Retford East by 37 votes. That eliminates the Labour majority (which was 1), though the Indies and LibDems have generally voted with Labour recently. Plenty of seats still to come.
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Lab holds Carlton East (was a top Tory Notts target) by 29 votes.0
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What odds are available for Ruth to be FM? I feel like a crazy bet0
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Analysis of the West mayoral contest suggest the LibDems won in the Bristol West, Bath, and Thornbury GE seats0
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I'm looking for SNP <40%.dyedwoolie said:What odds are available for Ruth to be FM? I feel like a crazy bet
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Surely you haven't forgotten the titanic struggle to be the first elected head of the European Commission?Stark_Dawning said:obscure EU functionaries
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@BBCNormanS: "Speaking as @UKIP first and last MP I'm delighted with these results " - @DouglasCarswell0
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David Miliband. Ready made and if it wasn't for the ambition of Ed (who many now wish was buried under his own stone) would nbe PM .....the Labour Party would be thriving ......the Tories would have split into two..... Ukip Tories and Tories and most important of all we'd still be in the EU.Barnesian said:Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?0 -
You may be forgetting that it is supporters of Mr Corbyn who have been advising all those loyal Labour voters that they are now "Tories"?Barnesian said:Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?0 -
@murdo_fraser: And @ScotTories take ANOTHER SNP seat in North Perthshire, this time in Strathtay. This is turning into a rout.0
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Extremely close result in Labour's main target in Broxtowe but the Tories just held it:
Lisa Clarke - Labour - 1,903
John Doddy - Conservative - 2,692
Tim Hallam - Liberal Democrats - 1,101
William Longdon - Conservative - 2,179
Richard MacRae - Independent - 1,530
John McGrath - Labour - 2,034
Nina Tait-Peterson - UKIP - 286
Daniel Stowell - UKIP - 216
Jacky Williams - Liberal Democrats - 1,147
John Doddy, Conservative has retained his seat, and William Longdon also Conservative has won the seat.
Jacky Williams, Lib Dem has lost her seat.
Read more at http://www.nottinghampost.com/live-updates-from-the-county-council-elections-in-nottinghamshire/story-30313347-detail/story.html#d0tPhBEtKri12SGw.990 -
They won't gain the seat with 1 councillor but it is a startPong said:0 -
Labour has lost control of Derbyshire county council - one of only two shire counties it held.Con share +16%, Lab -7%, UKIP -15%(35/64 wards0
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Tories within 150 votes in my ward. 427 for me. Never seen Labour so crestfallen to win0
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It's going to be interesting seeing the first pref shares vs the transfers.Scott_P said:@murdo_fraser: And @ScotTories take ANOTHER SNP seat in North Perthshire, this time in Strathtay. This is turning into a rout.
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Durham results starting to come through - if there is one county where old-labour face UKIP-> Tory switchers then this is it. 126 councillors: 94 Labour. (so far 4/4)0
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Voting UKIP seems to have been one hell of a gateway drug.0
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The structural problems Labour had under Gordon and Ed would still have bedevilled them. Ed and David were not exactly miles apart in political outlook, and I see their leadership of Labour having ended in broadly a similar manner.Roger said:
David Miliband. Ready made and if it wasn't for the ambition of Ed (who many now wish was buried under his own stone) would nbe PM .....the Labour Party would be thriving ......the Tories would have split into two..... Ukip Tories and Tories and most important of all we'd still be in the EU.Barnesian said:Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?
David Miliband was not the answer then, and he isn't the answer now.0 -
First NEV share change calc (v 2013):
Con +13%
LibDem + 3%
Green + 1%
Lab -2%
UKIP -15%
The Labour -2% stands out in terms of interpreting the locals v the polls? Labour NEV in 2013 was 29%.0 -
EdM was an abysmal Labour leader and under him Scotland was lost, probably forever. But in 2015, the Labour GE vote went up in terms of votes and percentage. That is worth bearing in mind as we approach 8th June.Barnesian said:Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?
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Labour has lost overall control in Derbyshire. Never has defeat been more deserved.0
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Labour won pretty much everything in my count area bit they are winning badly if you catch my drift0
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Tories 4 away from control by my reckoningNickPalmer said:Extremely close result in Labour's main target in Broxtowe but the Tories just held it:
Lisa Clarke - Labour - 1,903
John Doddy - Conservative - 2,692
Tim Hallam - Liberal Democrats - 1,101
William Longdon - Conservative - 2,179
Richard MacRae - Independent - 1,530
John McGrath - Labour - 2,034
Nina Tait-Peterson - UKIP - 286
Daniel Stowell - UKIP - 216
Jacky Williams - Liberal Democrats - 1,147
John Doddy, Conservative has retained his seat, and William Longdon also Conservative has won the seat.
Jacky Williams, Lib Dem has lost her seat.
Read more at http://www.nottinghampost.com/live-updates-from-the-county-council-elections-in-nottinghamshire/story-30313347-detail/story.html#d0tPhBEtKri12SGw.990 -
@Edinburgh_CC: Ward 8 - Colinton/Fairmilehead results: 3 elected
Scott Arthur (Lab)
Phil Doggart (Con)
Jason Rust (Con)
Turnout – 60.2%
#edincount0 -
Ireland = West Ham?
Pretty please0 -
Shadow home secretary Diane Abbott has just repeated her claim that "We represent the six most anti-Brexit constituencies and the six most pro".
We've looked at this one before.
We reckon the best estimates available suggest that two of the six most pro-Remain constituencies have SNP MPs, while three of the six most pro-Leave constituencies have Conservative MPs.0 -
From PlaceNorthWest:
|"The turnout in the Greater Manchester Mayoral election was 28.9%, significantly higher than many people had been predicting.
The breakdown of turnout by borough was:
Bolton 29.3%
Bury 32.2%
Manchester 28.4%
Oldham 25.8%
Rochdale 25.2%
Salford 25.1%
Stockport 32.2%
Tameside 26%
Trafford 38.4%
Wigan 27.3%"
Higher turnout in Trafford - might be expected to help Sean Anstee (whoi is from Partington and is a councillor in Altrincham). Also note higher turnout in boroughs with Tory seats. But probably not enough to deny Andy Burnham, I wouldn't have thought.
Edit - the above also good news for Jane Brophy (Lib Dem) who is also a councillor in Altrincham (well, Timperley, I think); and the high turnout in Stockport might also encourage the Lib Dems, a bit.0 -
Pulpstar - a good effort mate. Well done. I didn't even know you were standing! (Liberals I guess?)0
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Labour take a seat from the SNP in Colinton (Edinburgh)0
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CON now just 4 short in Notts with 17 still to declare.0
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Turnout looks to be up about 10% points in Edinburgh0
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@brucerisk: Please can the #RubbishParty get #UKIPs obligatory seat on @bbcquestiontime now that they're 'no more'? Sally Cogley..in case you're asking.0
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51% in 2012SeanT said:
Turnout 60%????Scott_P said:@Edinburgh_CC: Ward 8 - Colinton/Fairmilehead results: 3 elected
Scott Arthur (Lab)
Phil Doggart (Con)
Jason Rust (Con)
Turnout – 60.2%
#edincount0 -
I used to live in Fairmilehead in the early sixtiesSeanT said:
Turnout 60%????Scott_P said:@Edinburgh_CC: Ward 8 - Colinton/Fairmilehead results: 3 elected
Scott Arthur (Lab)
Phil Doggart (Con)
Jason Rust (Con)
Turnout – 60.2%
#edincount0 -
Diane and facts aren't on speaking terms....FrancisUrquhart said:Shadow home secretary Diane Abbott has just repeated her claim that "We represent the six most anti-Brexit constituencies and the six most pro".
We've looked at this one before.
We reckon the best estimates available suggest that two of the six most pro-Remain constituencies have SNP MPs, while three of the six most pro-Leave constituencies have Conservative MPs.0 -
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Turnout in Liverpool City region 26.1%. Turnout highest in Liverpool City Council area, at 28.6%. Not sure anything interesting or unexpected can be read into that.0
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@Edinburgh_CC: Ward 7 Sighthill/Gorgie results:4 elected
Denis Dixon (SNP)
Catherine Fullerton (SNP)
Ashley Graczyk (Con)
Donald Wilson (Lab)
Turnout 39.8%0 -
I see Steven Woolfe (the UKIP brawling in European Parliament chap) has now endorsed Theresa:
I’ve got no choice – it would have to be Theresa May. The darker forces within Ukip ... have managed to rise ... and that just won’t work in the United Kingdom.0 -
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@BrianSpanner1: The SNP's twitter accounts appear to have stopped working.0
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@faisalislam: And @sionSimon gains another 4K lead over @andy4wm in Wolverhampton -lead of 8000 now -if uniform, that'd be enough for Labour win. Close pic.twitter.com/p9tnt6GTFzScrapheap_as_was said:does this look like simon might not be winning at the moment?
https://www.wmcaelects.co.uk/results/0 -
Coventry WM Mayor votes - SIMON beats STREET 24k to 20k0
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I am still too busy at work to keep up with this. Can someone of a neutral and unexcitable none Tory persuasion (e.g. Alastair) give me the OK/FUBAR level for Corbyn on a scale of 1-10. Cheers!0
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Con need one more seat to take Derbyshire.0
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Full results are avaiable for Edinburgh on this page:
http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/councilresults2017
In Almond the LD candidate got a staggering 43% of 1st Pref the vote, up a little bit on the 16% the Lib Dem got in 20120 -
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Not really a surprise - wasn't that what the punch-up was about in the first place?Stark_Dawning said:I see Steven Woolfe (the UKIP brawling in European Parliament chap) has now endorsed Theresa:
I’ve got no choice – it would have to be Theresa May. The darker forces within Ukip ... have managed to rise ... and that just won’t work in the United Kingdom.0 -
Nick, looks like your pre-election assessment was pretty spot-on (Labour voters still voting Labour but LOTS of UKIP voters voting Tory). Very much enjoying the detailed analysis from my old stamping ground - thanks.NickPalmer said:Extremely close result in Labour's main target in Broxtowe but the Tories just held it:
Lisa Clarke - Labour - 1,903
John Doddy - Conservative - 2,692
Tim Hallam - Liberal Democrats - 1,101
William Longdon - Conservative - 2,179
Richard MacRae - Independent - 1,530
John McGrath - Labour - 2,034
Nina Tait-Peterson - UKIP - 286
Daniel Stowell - UKIP - 216
Jacky Williams - Liberal Democrats - 1,147
John Doddy, Conservative has retained his seat, and William Longdon also Conservative has won the seat.
Jacky Williams, Lib Dem has lost her seat.
Read more at http://www.nottinghampost.com/live-updates-from-the-county-council-elections-in-nottinghamshire/story-30313347-detail/story.html#d0tPhBEtKri12SGw.990 -
I was told the Tory candidate is very impressive. Mid 30's from Hale gay and married to his younger boyfriend. Do you know of him?Cookie said:From PlaceNorthWest:
|"The turnout in the Greater Manchester Mayoral election was 28.9%, significantly higher than many people had been predicting.
The breakdown of turnout by borough was:
Bolton 29.3%
Bury 32.2%
Manchester 28.4%
Oldham 25.8%
Rochdale 25.2%
Salford 25.1%
Stockport 32.2%
Tameside 26%
Trafford 38.4%
Wigan 27.3%"
Higher turnout in Trafford - might be expected to help Sean Anstee (whoi is from Partington and is a councillor in Altrincham). Also note higher turnout in boroughs with Tory seats. But probably not enough to deny Andy Burnham, I wouldn't have thought.
Edit - the above also good news for Jane Brophy (Lib Dem) who is also a councillor in Altrincham (well, Timperley, I think); and the high turnout in Stockport might also encourage the Lib Dems, a bit.0 -
Rather than obsessing about "Will Corbyn resign?", given the LD's rubbish showing will Farron resign?0
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Easy Labour win (700 margin) in Mansfield West despite earlier rumours. Tories pick up one in Sutton. I need to sign off now for work, but my best guress is NOM in Notts, Labour probably still largest party.0
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YouGov:
2015 UKIP voters shaped that year’s election and are set to play a major role this this year’s campaign. But while some former Labour and Lib Dem supporters have used the party as a “gateway drug” to back the Conservatives, be wary of overstating its significance – many more have jumped straight to the Tories.
3.6% voted Labour in 2010, now with the Tories v
0.5% voted Labour in 2010, UKIP in 2015 and now with the Tories0 -
I'd like to see Clegg do a LazarusBeverley_C said:Rather than obsessing about "Will Corbyn resign?", given the LD's rubbish showing will Farron resign?
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Ukip claims first seat as Alan Hosker evicts Labour's Marcus Johnstone in Padiham and Burnley West with a 228 vote majority0
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Mr Alistair, is turnout in Scotland’s locals generally higher than UK, or is it just Edinburgh?Alistair said:
51% in 2012SeanT said:
Turnout 60%????Scott_P said:@Edinburgh_CC: Ward 8 - Colinton/Fairmilehead results: 3 elected
Scott Arthur (Lab)
Phil Doggart (Con)
Jason Rust (Con)
Turnout – 60.2%
#edincount0 -
Centre ground votes have been leaving Labour since Blair stepped down, but this had been hidden by the rise of UKIP. Now it's clear Labour have lost both centre ground and WWCBarnesian said:Over the last few years the big picture (apart from the rise of the SNP) seems to be the move of WWC first from Labour to UKIP, and now from UKIP to the Tories explaining the widening gap between Con and Lab.
The move from Lab to UKIP predates Corbyn, and the latest move from UKIP to Con seems to have little to do with Corbyn and more to do with the Tories transforming into UKIP.
Conclusion: The Labour problem has very little to do with Corbyn. They would have had it under any leader. Labour is two tribes and one tribe is defecting to the Tories. The only solution for Labour is to become Tory-lite. Come back Tony Blair?0 -
Conservatives ahead on first preferences for the Tees Valley mayoralty0
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Eh? Tories are already ahead by so much Labour cannot catch up.NickPalmer said:Easy Labour win (700 margin) in Mansfield West despite earlier rumours. Tories pick up one in Sutton. I need to sign off now for work, but my best guress is NOM in Notts, Labour probably still largest party.
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Looks unlikely Nick. Now mathematically impossible for Lab to be largest party. 14 still to declare and you're 18 seats behind the Tories.NickPalmer said:Easy Labour win (700 margin) in Mansfield West despite earlier rumours. Tories pick up one in Sutton. I need to sign off now for work, but my best guress is NOM in Notts, Labour probably still largest party.
http://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/electionresults/2017
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Notts so far:
Tory: 31
Labour: 13
14 seats to announce.0 -
Ooh - big win for Andy in Walsall.... brings it right back.0
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Official - CON GAIN Derbyshire. 0
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WM update;
Walsall
Sion Simon 16725
John Lewis 236940 -
Yes, that's right - also of interest that while he lives in (ultra-posh) Hale, he grew up in (rough as old boots) Partington. Leader of the Conservative group on Trafford Council at an absurdly young age. Also - importantly for a Tory in Greater Manchester - quite effective in working with his (usually Labour) counterparts in other boroughs. Though that is also testament to the large number of pragmatic, not-particularly-partisan Labour politicians that Greater Manchester also has. (I'm not convinced Andy Burnham falls into this category - I'd have much preferred Labour to select someone like Jim McMahon with local politics experience.)Roger said:
I was told the Tory candidate is very impressive. Mid 30's from Hale gay and married to his younger boyfriend. Do you know of him?Cookie said:From PlaceNorthWest:
|"The turnout in the Greater Manchester Mayoral election was 28.9%, significantly higher than many people had been predicting.
The breakdown of turnout by borough was:
Bolton 29.3%
Bury 32.2%
Manchester 28.4%
Oldham 25.8%
Rochdale 25.2%
Salford 25.1%
Stockport 32.2%
Tameside 26%
Trafford 38.4%
Wigan 27.3%"
Higher turnout in Trafford - might be expected to help Sean Anstee (whoi is from Partington and is a councillor in Altrincham). Also note higher turnout in boroughs with Tory seats. But probably not enough to deny Andy Burnham, I wouldn't have thought.
Edit - the above also good news for Jane Brophy (Lib Dem) who is also a councillor in Altrincham (well, Timperley, I think); and the high turnout in Stockport might also encourage the Lib Dems, a bit.0 -
WM Mayor: Walsall 49.5% Conservative v 34.9% Labour0
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Just home from work, catching up with the election news on the Beeb.
Observations:
Peter Kellner suggesting that this rivals 1982 (in the midst of the Falklands War) as the best Conservative local government election performance since detailed records began to be kept in the Seventies.
Kellner also suggested that, if we tot up the combined vote for all the left-leaning parties and the combined vote for all the right-leaning parties, a small but measurable right-to-left swing is observable. The problem for the left, of course, is that their vote is much more divided.
Saw latest results from Norfolk - Liberal Democrats gaining vote share but losing councillors, presumably because they are being swamped by a huge Ukip to Con swing. Ill omens there for Norman Lamb.
Ukip dying everywhere. Have heard that they may finally have won a seat up in Burnley, so Ukip=0 not technically accurate, but I think it's going to be pretty close.0 -
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Tees Valley hangs on second prefs:
Conservatives 40,278 to Labour's 39,797.
Lib Dems on 12,550
UKIP on 9,4750 -
Derbyshire born, Derbyshire bredRobD said:Official - CON GAIN Derbyshire.
Thick in the arm, thick in the head0 -
LibDem gain Cromer!Black_Rook said:Just home from work, catching up with the election news on the Beeb.
Observations:
Peter Kellner suggesting that this rivals 1982 (in the midst of the Falklands War) as the best Conservative local government election performance since detailed records began to be kept in the Seventies.
Kellner also suggested that, if we tot up the combined vote for all the left-leaning parties and the combined vote for all the right-leaning parties, a small but measurable right-to-left swing is observable. The problem for the left, of course, is that their vote is much more divided.
Saw latest results from Norfolk - Liberal Democrats gaining vote share but losing councillors, presumably because they are being swamped by a huge Ukip to Con swing. Ill omens there for Norman Lamb.
Ukip dying everywhere. Have heard that they may finally have won a seat up in Burnley, so Ukip=0 not technically accurate, but I think it's going to be pretty close.0 -
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/860465365381521408
Perhaps a coalition of the 'we insist the trams must go ahead' parties?0
