politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Branding the Tories totally around Theresa has made it easier
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Branding the Tories totally around Theresa has made it easier for LAB>UKIP voters to move to the blues
We are not hearing the name Lynton Crosby much at the moment but he is playing the central role in the massive resurgence of the Conservatives that we are currently seeing.
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UKIP had their first win of the night in Northamptonshire! A gain from the Tories no less.
If the narrative is that the Conservatives are doing well and the Lib Dems/Labour are on their back, any unionist voting tactically will gravitate towards the blues.
That *may* happen and prove helpful in a few seats.
On-topic: very interesting observation, Mr. Smithson. UKIP's collapse is perfectly timed to coincide with this.
@paulwaugh: I'm told Corbyn has asked for data on voter-contact rate in each council seat lost. That suggests he thinks lack of doorknocking to blame
Later today, tomorrow or before nominations
Salmond says Tories have 'eliminated Ukip by becoming Ukip'
Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader and former Scottish first minister, has just told BBC News that the Conservatives have “eliminated Ukip by becoming Ukip”.
One very interesting trend, when you see the disappearance of Ukip, from English politics, and Welsh politics for that matter, is the extent to which the Conservative party have actually become Ukip. They’ve eliminated Ukip by becoming Ukip. The sort of extreme language that Theresa May used in Downing Street the other day, that could have come from Nigel Farage. So the Conservative party have managed to beat Ukip, assimilate their votes, but they’ve done it by becoming Ukip. And as that message sinks home I think a lot of people will think twice before endorsing this type of Conservative party.
So, is that what's happening in Scotland, Mr Salmond?
Jean-Claude Juncker demonstrating his Luddite credentials.....
Someone needs to hook him off
Independent 20 (−1)
Green 1 (+1)
In this case, I think it's abundantly clear he has got it spot on, although he's hardly the only person to have pointed out that making the election May v Corbyn, order v chaos, might be wise. The polls have scarcely been ambiguous on that point.
Snp 1 1240
Tory 1 1118
Tory 21397
Edit: Beaten to it!
Maybe those with a higher contact rate fared worse?
SNP 8 (0)
Conservative 5 (+4)
Labour 5 (−3)
Independent 0(−1) #Council17
Douglas Fairbarn (Con)
Gail Macgregor (Con)
Stephen Thompson (SNP)
Adam Wilson (Lab)
Lib Dem source says Tories in the lead for the West Midlands mayoralty. Their intel is usually good."
Keyboard player looking for a band to join...
Or do the millenials not like any hard work?
Did you not get the memo?
David Griffiths - Labour - 721
Tony Harper - Conservative - 1,180
Keith Longdon - Liberal Democrat - 861
Pat Morton - Green Party - 84
Paul Tordoff - UKIP - 219
First change, Tony Harper has taken the Liberal Democrat seat from Keith Longdon
Read more at http://www.nottinghampost.com/live-updates-from-the-county-council-elections-in-nottinghamshire/story-30313347-detail/story.html#ezwUT5Jzm7ro1EU2.99
Who needs Saatchi & Saatchi?
US and South Korean agents are plotting to kill North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, state media report.
Lab 28
Plaid 3
Ind 1
LD 1
There are 75 Cllrs. So majority is at 38.
Unless Labour start to lose almost every seat left to declare, they will retain overall control.
Of all what we've seen in the results so far, it is the LD situation that is most surprising (and disappointing). Local elections are where the party should be shining. Pavement politics is their bread and butter. Looks like the Tory tsunami has submerged them as well as Labour.
The potentially optimistic argument is that the LDs are no longer seen as a local party, having made the national issue of brexit their main theme. In that situation you could imagine votes for them in a GE where it may seem pointless in locals.
Either way, I think my LDs under 18.5 seats is a surefire win come June 8th.
This may end up meaning Corbyn finishes on a surprisingly good result (still crap of course, but not obliterated) if Lab voters are not tempted to peel to LDs. Which increases the risk he will stay on post election loss.
1 Newcastle-under-Lyme 6602
2 Mansfield 6535
3 Walsall North 6185
4 Stoke-on-Trent South 5759
5 North East Derbyshire 5748
6 Dagenham and Rainham 5512
7 Wakefield 5249
8 Hartlepool 5232
9 Dewsbury 5198
10 Halifax 5193
11 Dudley North 4932
12 Hyndburn 4754
13 Stoke-on-Trent North 4706
14 Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 4667
15 Birmingham, Northfield 4597
16 Barrow and Furness 4275
17 City of Chester 4055
18 Penistone and Stocksbridge 4015
19 Bridgend 3984
20 Heywood and Middleton 3969
21 Gedling 3944
22 Alyn and Deeside 3917
23 Great Grimsby 3877
24 Eltham 3788
25 Ilford North 3766
26 Bolton North East 3740
27 Rother Valley 3648
28 Copeland 3584
29 Wolverhampton South West 3509
30 Bishop Auckland 3507
31 Wrexham 3241
32 Delyn 3220
33 Scunthorpe 3195
34 Bristol East 3172
35 Clwyd South 3078
36 Enfield North 3047
37 Blackpool South 3028
38 Batley and Spen 3023
39 Workington 2852
40 Lancaster and Fleetwood 2795
41 Brentford and Isleworth 2738
42 Newport West 2624
43 Bradford South 2607
44 Coventry North West 2592
45 Oldham East and Saddleworth 2555
46 Coventry South 2521
47 Chorley 2465
48 Wirral West 2355
49 Darlington 2234
50 Hove 2029
51 Stoke-on-Trent Central 1829
52 Newport East 1761
53 Southampton, Test 1756
54 Worsley and Eccles South 1742
55 Ealing Central and Acton 1652
56 Ynys Môn 1643
57 Birmingham, Edgbaston 1448
58 Bury South 1377
59 Ashfield 1330
60 Bristol South 1253
61 Don Valley 1078
62 Stalybridge and Hyde 1034
63 Wolverhampton North East 1029
64 Birmingham, Erdington 911
65 West Bromwich West 623
66 Walsall South 533
67 Hampstead and Kilburn 394
On a serious point though, Juncker clearly hates our guts because we've had the temerity to preserve our democracy by pissing on his chips of his continental Euro bureaucracy dream. Fair enough if that's how he feels, but for hopes of a sensible deal for all, it's probably best he (and eminence grise Selmayr) were sidelined and Barnier/Tusk ( and probably Verhofstadt) takeover totally.
It's a bit like us sticking BoJo in as lead negotiator just to piss the continentals off deliberately otherwise.
(Born at a meeting at the Sun Inn in 1832).
Lick all good socialists, can run anything but know experts in knowing haw to blame others.
Also of interest to North Norfolk discussion on previous thread. Lib Dem gain Mundesley from Tories in what I believe is first declaration in that seat.