politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Tory lead might be even larger than the polling implie

First

[cough]

i think i got away with it

Scrapheap_as_was said:

fourth like TSE in the pb fantasy footie...like liverpool will he cling to CL spots?

Dude, I'm betting on you lot getting relegated next season.

Playing all your home matches at Wembley next season. Courageous.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

fourth like TSE in the pb fantasy footie...like liverpool will he cling to CL spots?

Dude, I'm betting on you lot getting relegated next season.

Playing all your home matches at Wembley next season. Courageous.

and with any luck I'll see all of them if I can move up the waiting list enough....

Had letter in the post from Lab MP, no mention of Corbyn nor was there a reference to forming a Labour government. A list of items which fit well on the CV with added opposition to hard Brexit.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/858008427615969282

I do hope this article is wrong. If Labour implode, fine. I may have voted for the stupid buggers two years ago but I'm not going to shed tears for the wreck they are now if it vanishes. But if they do there needs to be a strong opposition which could realistically only be the Liberal Democrats at this stage - and yet they look set to go backwards too. We cannot have May leading a National Government-style 556-52 majority and doing whatever the hell she likes. That was, to put it mildly, less than successful. A government that was resolved to be irresolute at this moment could easily be a catastrophe.

The problem is I fear this article is right. Those voting Tory are doing is for a variety of reasons. Those voting Labour are almost invariably doing so out of habit, reluctantly, with trepidation, barring maybe the 5% of the population who believe Corbyn is a decent human being (and half of them will vote Green anyway).

This could be the worst result for democracy imaginable.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, you're suggesting Corbyn's support is both small and flaccid?

I think all the evidence of Corbyn's romantic history is that he bangs like a beltfed bazooka.

Dr. Foxinsox, yet his electoral prospects are drooping with despair.

I see that SkyBet are offering 11/8 on the LibDems holding Southport.

I would have thought the PB LibDems would have been emptying their bank balances to get on those odds.

Pulpstar certainly did.

foxinsoxuk said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, you're suggesting Corbyn's support is both small and flaccid?

I think all the evidence of Corbyn's romantic history is that he bangs like a beltfed bazooka.

*mops copious amounts of filtered and lemon flavoured water he was drinking when he read that off iPad*

oh dear

https://order-order.com/2017/04/28/army-veteran-warns-off-labour-canvassers-leader-supports-ira/

Jason said:

Who's that fella here who keeps saying 'May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep'? He must have repeated it about a dozen times. I'll repeat what I said about Corbyn - his support is an inch wide and a mile deep.

It's hard to keep track of what username he is using...

Jason said:

Who's that fella here who keeps saying 'May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep'? He must have repeated it about a dozen times. I'll repeat what I said about Corbyn - his support is an inch wide and a mile deep.

Doesn't even look as if it's a mile deep. That's one of the (many) problems.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

If Spurs win on sunday, where can one hire an open top bus?

Asking for a friend ....

well ok, it's for me.

How times change! 13 years ago I worked on a trading desk next to a couple of Spurs fans who weren't impressed by a team winning the league unbeaten!

slough to gravesham.....

https://twitter.com/SELabour/status/857999735961137152

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/857868402878230528

Mr. B, he's still 13 with Ladbrokes (15 on Betfair but that's not each way).

That appears somewhat long. Hmm.

Edited extra bit: and evens for a podium.

The blue donkey has jumped.

Fair play to that young girl who facebook'd his anti-gay comments.

Who said you can't change anything in politics these days?

Trump's addressing the NRA.

https://twitter.com/GeoffShadbold/status/857923471233478657

Floater said:

Someone not happy

https://capx.co/only-a-ballot-box-massacre-can-save-labour/

Spot on: "Labour’s support will come largely from the kind of fervent social justice warrior who has enough spare time and cash to patronise his social inferiors in the name of class war"

https://twitter.com/Pandamoanimum/status/857853624877240320

Anorak said:

https://twitter.com/Pandamoanimum/status/857853624877240320

You could have put a warning on that. I'm eating!

Anorak said:

https://twitter.com/Pandamoanimum/status/857853624877240320

That is f*****g horrible.

MTimT said:

Anorak said:

FPT:

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

In what conceivable world could it possibly cost us five times what we pay annually as a full member of the club to tidy up our bar bill on leaving? It's financial, legal, and above all political madness, it simply makes no sense.

My concern is that they might actually be serious. If so, there's no deal.

Agreed. They're massively overplaying their hand. And all this Gibraltar/United Ireland chit-chat is stupidly dangerous and provocative. Of course senior UK politicians have said dumb, inflammatory things, and our press is always lurid, but these remarks are coming from the EU Commission, the EU Parliament, and EU leaders. They're politicking, but they are pushing us to the Hardest of Brexits. The Fuck You Too Brexit. In the end, we would walk out. What would they do then?

The best way to punish someone is to make them do it to themselves. The game is to agitate just enough that we end up voluntarily taking the diamond-hard option. When it goes horribly wrong at that point (for us) they can look at their spotless, blood-free hands, and examine their spotless, blood-free consciences, and say: "You saw how reasonable we've been, you saw how we tried and tried to get a solution. Look what happened anyway. You don't want to copy that, do you?".

The Diamond Hard Brexit is not the worst outcome for us. We walk away paying nothing for the divorce and nothing annually. The EU does not get a one-sided FTA which protects their GBP 120bn surplus on trade in goods while slashing our surplus on services. We get our fish back, and full control of our borders, laws, trade and foreign policy.

Thus, when both sides do come back to the table, it will be a negotiation about mutual interests and achieving a win-win, rather than imposing a punitive outcome on us.

Riiiiight. Keep drinking the Kool-Aid, buddy.

Pong said:

The blue donkey has jumped.

Fair play to that young girl who facebook'd his anti-gay comments.

Who said you can't change anything in politics these days?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/857999523175682049

MTimT said:

The Diamond Hard Brexit is not the worst outcome for us. We walk away paying nothing for the divorce and nothing annually. The EU does not get a one-sided FTA which protects their GBP 120bn surplus on trade in goods while slashing our surplus on services. We get our fish back, and full control of our borders, laws, trade and foreign policy.

Thus, when both sides do come back to the table, it will be a negotiation about mutual interests and achieving a win-win, rather than imposing a punitive outcome on us.

I hope you don't mind my reposting a question FPT. I am curious.

On the 29 March 2019, the treaties that govern almost everything we do will lapse, unless we agree replacements. It won't just be a question of whether we have to pay duties on goods. There won't be the systems or staff in place to process them. There will be issues about aircraft certification, nuclear waste processing, financial settlements and much more. The chaos won't start at that date but will project forward as people suspect what's in store.

Questions. Do you think all that is worth it, just to avoid a payment of €50 billion? Do you think Mrs May will think it's worth it, given the buck stops with her?

MTimT said:

Anorak said:

FPT:

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

In what conceivable world could it possibly cost us five times what we pay annually as a full member of the club to tidy up our bar bill on leaving? It's financial, legal, and above all political madness, it simply makes no sense.

My concern is that they might actually be serious. If so, there's no deal.

Agreed. They're massively overplaying their hand. And all this Gibraltar/United Ireland chit-chat is stupidly dangerous and provocative. Of course senior UK politicians have said dumb, inflammatory things, and our press is always lurid, but these remarks are coming from the EU Commission, the EU Parliament, and EU leaders. They're politicking, but they are pushing us to the Hardest of Brexits. The Fuck You Too Brexit. In the end, we would walk out. What would they do then?

The best way to punish someone is to make them do it to themselves. The game is to agitate just enough that we end up voluntarily taking the diamond-hard option. When it goes horribly wrong at that point (for us) they can look at their spotless, blood-free hands, and examine their spotless, blood-free consciences, and say: "You saw how reasonable we've been, you saw how we tried and tried to get a solution. Look what happened anyway. You don't want to copy that, do you?".

The Diamond Hard Brexit is not the worst outcome for us. We walk away paying nothing for the divorce and nothing annually. The EU does not get a one-sided FTA which protects their GBP 120bn surplus on trade in goods while slashing our surplus on services. We get our fish back, and full control of our borders, laws, trade and foreign policy.

Thus, when both sides do come back to the table, it will be a negotiation about mutual interests and achieving a win-win, rather than imposing a punitive outcome on us.

That is pretty much what I would like. Hard as nails Brexit, a cooling off period for a couple of years then a constructive engagement by both sides. Ideally with a LD government in Westminster from 2022.

CarlottaVance said:

Pong said:

The blue donkey has jumped.

Fair play to that young girl who facebook'd his anti-gay comments.

Who said you can't change anything in politics these days?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/857999523175682049

Even if you thought that why, in the name of all that is holy, as an MP, would you say it?

It's not like another MP has just been raked over the coals for being -suspected-of-thinking-it-but-not-actually-saying-it or anything. *face palm*

Moronic bigotry aside, no one that stupid should be in public office on the taxpayers' dime.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

tlg86 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

isam said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

If Spurs win on sunday, where can one hire an open top bus?

Asking for a friend ....

well ok, it's for me.

How times change! 13 years ago I worked on a trading desk next to a couple of Spurs fans who weren't impressed by a team winning the league unbeaten!

I don't about your own views but my Arsenal clients / professional contacts are all telling me that they hope we win the title and pip Chelsea for the title.

Now that is how times change!!!

I wouldn't say I hope Spurs win it, but I find it very difficult to want Chelsea to win.

The odd thing is if it was Arsenal vs Chelsea for the title, these days I'd be wanting the Goners to do it...

Will be for the FA Cup too... mind you that's also so Arsene might stay.

Thats because we are shit! I used to quite like Spurs when they were rubbish

Ishmael_Z said:

ydoethur said:

ITMA said:

You wonder what it would do to Irish politics?
Take a look at this thread header where Mr Smithson openly compares leavers with fascists (thats those people who gassed 7 million jews for those with short memories) and is openly cheered on by Mr TSE, an alleged conservative.
THAT's what it would do to Irish politics.

Having just seen this, it might be worth reminding people that while all Nazis were fascists, not all fascists are Nazis. To take one rather intriguing example, Horthy was a fascist, not a Nazi, and while he had no love for Jews and treated them extremely badly it is ironic to reflect Hungary was invaded and he was ultimately deposed for failing to instantly deport them to Auschwitz when Hitler demanded them.

Also, to be even more pedantic, it is worth pointing out the generally accepted figure for the numbers murdered is 6 million, not 7, and that around a third were gassed - a larger number were shot, and a very surprisingly high number, probably around a million, were lynched by locals who had no connection at all to politics.

Fck. I never knew that about lynching. It's a depressing day when the new thing you learn is that the holocaust was worse than you thought it was.

I knew about it, or at least, I knew it was part of it. It wasn't until last summer that I found how widespread it was across Eastern Europe.

surbiton said:

ITMA said:

matt said:

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

There is a bill upon leaving. What happens after this is sorted out makes no difference to that. When you leave a club to which you have had obligations you work out what it is you owe (or are owed). It is, indeed, the legal obligation that needs to be ascertained. Both sides will have their views.

Where in the Treaty does it say there's a bill on leaving? It's a fiction.

In any case, you don't need to be an expert in anything to put the figure to a simple, commonsense test. It what conceivable world could it possibly cost us five times what we pay annually as a full member of the club to tidy up our bar bill on leaving? It's financial, legal, and above all political madness, it simply makes no sense.

My concern is that they might actually be serious. If so, there's no deal.

Agreed. They're massively overplaying their hand. And all this Gibraltar/United Ireland chit-chat is stupidly dangerous and provocative. Of course senior UK politicians have said dumb, inflammatory things, and our press is always lurid, but these remarks are coming from the EU Commission, the EU Parliament, and EU leaders. They're politicking, but they are pushing us to the Hardest of Brexits. The Fuck You Too Brexit. In the end, we would walk out. What would they do then?

Talking to my Irish colleagues, united Ireland is emotionally interesting (but even then there are real doubts) but practically they can't see it working. The thought of what it will do to Irish politics, which is horribly fragmented today, unnerves them hugely. The idea of SF having greater influence is anathema. And that's without getting to the DUP....

You wonder what it would do to Irish politics?
Take a look at this thread header where Mr Smithson openly compares leavers with fascists (thats those people who gassed 7 million jews for those with short memories) and is openly cheered on by Mr TSE, an alleged conservative.
THAT's what it would do to Irish politics.

That's absolute bollocks ! Neither Mike nor TSE implied any such thing. You should be ashamed of yourself.

You should smack that bitch up.

FF43 said:

MTimT said:

The Diamond Hard Brexit is not the worst outcome for us. We walk away paying nothing for the divorce and nothing annually. The EU does not get a one-sided FTA which protects their GBP 120bn surplus on trade in goods while slashing our surplus on services. We get our fish back, and full control of our borders, laws, trade and foreign policy.

Thus, when both sides do come back to the table, it will be a negotiation about mutual interests and achieving a win-win, rather than imposing a punitive outcome on us.

I hope you don't mind my reposting a question FPT. I am curious.

On the 29 March 2019, the treaties that govern almost everything we do will lapse, unless we agree replacements. It won't just be a question of whether we have to pay duties on goods. There won't be the systems or staff in place to process them. There will be issues about aircraft certification, nuclear waste processing, financial settlements and much more. The chaos won't start at that date but will project forward as people suspect what's in store.

Questions. Do you think all that is worth it, just to avoid a payment of €50 billion? Do you think Mrs May will think it's worth it, given the buck stops with her?

I would not think it worth it if (1) it were entirely true (who does these things now - hint most of them are currently done for British entities by British officials) and (2) nothing were being done about it.

But as your scenario is pure (nightmarish) fantasy, I won't bother answering your question.

On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.

As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.

The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.

Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - it's the war room

A couple of days ago, I went our for drinks with some friends in the junior end of the Diplomatic. Ended up negotiating Article 50 with a couple of them to uproarious success.... apparently some inhabitants minor European nations think that selling Calais & Boulogne to the UK, in return for 50 billion Euro is an awesome compromise.

Anyway, several of them were moaning about how the higher ups were living in a dream world - apparently, between their own prejudices on matters EU and blandishments from prominnets Europhiles, several embassies were reporting to their governments that T May would be frustrated in trying to do anything other than Brexit in name only, that a cross party coalition of EUrophiles would bring her down if she "tried anything", that all the constituent parts of the UK would declare independence etc etc. Oh, and all the polls were wrong and she couldn't win an election. One guy had been told to put his reports in the bin because they were counter to the proper narrative...

One of them, a bit classically minded, agreed with me when I said "Labienus".... He further predicted a bit of a smash diplomatically when leaders following that kind of briefing tried their hand at negotiating...

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/858005442638819328

Was there actually any doubt that NI would be part of the EU if it joined the Republic?

I think David Davis had suggested as much.....

how many seats do people think UKIP and the Greens will contest?

I suspect fewer than half in both cases. Greens will dress it up as progressive alliance idea. UKIP as not standing against Brexiteers. In both cases true reason likely to be that they can't find enough candidates and don't have the funds to lose many deposits.

any polling tonight guys?

Reestev said:

any polling tonight guys?

Doubt it, they'll save it for tomorrow night I'd guess.

MTimT said:

FF43 said:

MTimT said:

The Diamond Hard Brexit is not the worst outcome for us. We walk away paying nothing for the divorce and nothing annually. The EU does not get a one-sided FTA which protects their GBP 120bn surplus on trade in goods while slashing our surplus on services. We get our fish back, and full control of our borders, laws, trade and foreign policy.

Thus, when both sides do come back to the table, it will be a negotiation about mutual interests and achieving a win-win, rather than imposing a punitive outcome on us.

I hope you don't mind my reposting a question FPT. I am curious.

On the 29 March 2019, the treaties that govern almost everything we do will lapse, unless we agree replacements. It won't just be a question of whether we have to pay duties on goods. There won't be the systems or staff in place to process them. There will be issues about aircraft certification, nuclear waste processing, financial settlements and much more. The chaos won't start at that date but will project forward as people suspect what's in store.

Questions. Do you think all that is worth it, just to avoid a payment of €50 billion? Do you think Mrs May will think it's worth it, given the buck stops with her?

I would not think it worth it if (1) it were entirely true (who does these things now - hint most of them are currently done for British entities by British officials) and (2) nothing were being done about it.

But as your scenario is pure (nightmarish) fantasy, I won't bother answering your question.

Fair enough. We'll see. Ie I expect that scenario not to happen, whether nightmarish fantasy or not. We will pay the tens of billions of euros and we will agree an interim arrangement essentially on EU terms without an FTA agreed, except in the broadest outline.

MTimT said:

Malmesbury said:

Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - it's the war room

A couple of days ago, I went our for drinks with some friends in the junior end of the Diplomatic. Ended up negotiating Article 50 with a couple of them to uproarious success.... apparently some inhabitants minor European nations think that selling Calais & Boulogne to the UK, in return for 50 billion Euro is an awesome compromise.

Anyway, several of them were moaning about how the higher ups were living in a dream world - apparently, between their own prejudices on matters EU and blandishments from prominnets Europhiles, several embassies were reporting to their governments that T May would be frustrated in trying to do anything other than Brexit in name only, that a cross party coalition of EUrophiles would bring her down if she "tried anything", that all the constituent parts of the UK would declare independence etc etc. Oh, and all the polls were wrong and she couldn't win an election. One guy had been told to put his reports in the bin because they were counter to the proper narrative...

One of them, a bit classically minded, agreed with me when I said "Labienus".... He further predicted a bit of a smash diplomatically when leaders following that kind of briefing tried their hand at negotiating...

I get the Labienus reference. But what do you mean by the last sentence - that the senior diplomats will come a cropper once the politicos get involved, or that the politicos will fail as they follow the senior diplomats advice?

From evidence to date, it seems the former. If you're not on the right page as a diplomat, no matter how senior, you'll be shown the door.

He was talking about politicians being setup to fail by bad briefing.

The senior diplomats are civil servants. They never get fired.

Reestev said:

any polling tonight guys?

Rather personal question.

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/858025691153084417

Two things to note (and please correct me if I am reading the situation inaccurately, my knowledge of French politics is less than thorough-going, to put it mildly):

1. Le Pen is much closer to the Far Left platform in economic terms than Macron is, which should help her to win over a sizeable number of Melenchon supporters.
2. Many Far Leftists detested Hollande as a sell-out, and will therefore hate wet centrist Macron even more. Voting for Le Pen, as distinct from an establishment candidate, also represents a chance for change rather than more of the same.

Le Pen + Melenchon voters = 40% of the first round vote on their own (and add in Dupont-Aignan and the minor candidates, and the Eurosceptic vote must've been somewhere near 50%.) Factor in also the social conservative wing of the Fillon vote, and the possibility of differential turnout favouring Le Pen, and my reading is that Macron ought to win - but, perhaps, by rather less than the 60:40 margin the polls imply.

Only just over a week until we find out...

(PS Following the nasty bickering earlier today, let me make it clear that yes, I did vote Leave, but no, I'm not a Le Pen booster. It's not necessarily easy to place yourself in the shoes of people from a different culture and political system, but I'm pretty sure that if I were French I'd be holding my nose and voting for Macron.)