If Spurs win on sunday, where can one hire an open top bus?
Asking for a friend ....
well ok, it's for me.
How times change! 13 years ago I worked on a trading desk next to a couple of Spurs fans who weren't impressed by a team winning the league unbeaten!
I don't know about your own views but my Arsenal clients / professional contacts are all telling me that they hope we win the title and pip Chelsea to it.
Now that is how times change!!!
Jesus really?!
Fake fans!
Spurs have a great side, a pleasure to watch through gritted teeth, but I cant ever want them to win anything. I am virtually a Chelsea fan!
I suppose being a season ticket holder there doesn't actually mean that much when you see all the protestors there... too many piers morgans?
Oh I never go anymore. I don't really like watching Prem football at the ground, prefer TV, and am always working on it anyway. If I go to a game now I go to non league, Hornchurch or Dagenham. I had a season ticket at Highbury 88-92, which was nice!
The protesters are greedy pricks. I have seen my club do the double twice, win the league unbeaten, win the league in the last minute away at the best side of its generation and come within 20 mins of winning the CL; more than most can dream of in a lifetime. Some people just cant take the (not that) rough with the smooth
Can anyone remember who was the Conservative minister who got slapped down by maggie for suggesting a 30 seat working majority was adequate.
Wasn't that Pym?
His exact words were 'landslides don't produce successful governments:' which is of course true. Thatcher responded 'There is an ex-Chief Whips' club. It is very exclusive. They are unusual people.'
But it is not widely known that he had also, a short while before, privately referred to Thatcher as 'a corporal in a skirt, not a cavalry officer.' She got to hear about it and from then on probably never trusted him.
You wonder what it would do to Irish politics? Take a look at this thread header where Mr Smithson openly compares leavers with fascists (thats those people who gassed 7 million jews for those with short memories) and is openly cheered on by Mr TSE, an alleged conservative. THAT's what it would do to Irish politics.
Having just seen this, it might be worth reminding people that while all Nazis were fascists, not all fascists are Nazis. To take one rather intriguing example, Horthy was a fascist, not a Nazi, and while he had no love for Jews and treated them extremely badly it is ironic to reflect Hungary was invaded and he was ultimately deposed for failing to instantly deport them to Auschwitz when Hitler demanded them.
Also, to be even more pedantic, it is worth pointing out the generally accepted figure for the numbers murdered is 6 million, not 7, and that around a third were gassed - a larger number were shot, and a very surprisingly high number, probably around a million, were lynched by locals who had no connection at all to politics.
Fck. I never knew that about lynching. It's a depressing day when the new thing you learn is that the holocaust was worse than you thought it was.
I knew about it, or at least, I knew it was part of it. It wasn't until last summer that I found how widespread it was across Eastern Europe.
In Eastern Europe locals sometimes helpfully pointed out jews to the Germans and often went way beyond that and gave them a helping hand.
The most astonishing one I heard of was where a large group of Jews were liberated from a camp in Poland by the local resistance - I think it was Konskowla, but I can't remember for definite. About half fled, the rest were transferred to Budzyn camp, run by a man called Fredriks whom even the Nazis considered a psychotic bastard. The ones who fled were all killed by the local farmers hunting them down - with one exception. He worked out he had no chance of evading the farmers, and he was doomed unless he could be protected from them. So he walked to Budzyn and gave himself up. He lived to the end of the war. A truly bizarre reversal of normality where you are safer inside a camp run by a murderer than outside in a forest!
Tempered by the fact that if anyone was caught helping Jews, or any enemies of the Nazi's, they would be shot. Plus as much of their family that the Nazi's could find, and anyone in their village who was about. In Warsaw if any resistance occurred, they would just divert a tram car full of people to a quiet spot and shoot them all.
The EU's commentary about the place of Northern Ireland In Eire as part of the EU is Putinesque in the extreme. Meddling in UK politics. The sooner we're out, the better.
Indeed.
The EU needs to know two things are non-negotiable - Northern Ireland and Gibraltar.
N Ireland will be negiotiable the minute the Nationalist vote gets to 50.01%.
Former British deputy prime minister Nick Clegg has described as "illogical nonsense" the approach the UK is taking in relation to a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
Can anyone remember who was the Conservative minister who got slapped down by maggie for suggesting a 30 seat working majority was adequate.
Wasn't that Pym?
His exact words were 'landslides don't produce successful governments:' which is of course true. Thatcher responded 'There is an ex-Chief Whips' club. It is very exclusive. They are unusual people.'
But it is not widely known that he had also, a short while before, privately referred to Thatcher as 'a corporal in a skirt, not a cavalry officer.' She got to hear about it and from then on probably never trusted him.
Two things to note (and please correct me if I am reading the situation inaccurately, my knowledge of French politics is less than thorough-going, to put it mildly):
1. Le Pen is much closer to the Far Left platform in economic terms than Macron is, which should help her to win over a sizeable number of Melenchon supporters. 2. Many Far Leftists detested Hollande as a sell-out, and will therefore hate wet centrist Macron even more. Voting for Le Pen, as distinct from an establishment candidate, also represents a chance for change rather than more of the same.
Le Pen + Melenchon voters = 40% of the first round vote on their own (and add in Dupont-Aignan and the minor candidates, and the Eurosceptic vote must've been somewhere near 50%.) Factor in also the social conservative wing of the Fillon vote, and the possibility of differential turnout favouring Le Pen, and my reading is that Macron ought to win - but, perhaps, by rather less than the 60:40 margin the polls imply.
Only just over a week until we find out...
(PS Following the nasty bickering earlier today, let me make it clear that yes, I did vote Leave, but no, I'm not a Le Pen booster. It's not necessarily easy to place yourself in the shoes of people from a different culture and political system, but I'm pretty sure that if I were French I'd be holding my nose and voting for Macron.)
It is quite feasible that some of the "populist" [ "trumpist" shall we say ] could vote for Le Pen. But remember most of the communists and ex-communists are Melenchon supporters. They will not vote for a far-Right candidate [ we all know her history ]. They could abstain, yes. But many will vote Macron.
Tempered by the fact that if anyone was caught helping Jews, or any enemies of the Nazi's, they would be shot. Plus as much of their family that the Nazi's could find, and anyone in their village who was about. In Warsaw if any resistance occurred, they would just divert a tram car full of people to a quiet spot and shoot them all.
Which is also true. And that makes it all the more remarkable how many people did risk everything to try and protect Jews in large areas of Europe.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - it's the war room
A couple of days ago, I went our for drinks with some friends in the junior end of the Diplomatic. Ended up negotiating Article 50 with a couple of them to uproarious success.... apparently some inhabitants minor European nations think that selling Calais & Boulogne to the UK, in return for 50 billion Euro is an awesome compromise.
Anyway, several of them were moaning about how the higher ups were living in a dream world - apparently, between their own prejudices on matters EU and blandishments from prominnets Europhiles, several embassies were reporting to their governments that T May would be frustrated in trying to do anything other than Brexit in name only, that a cross party coalition of EUrophiles would bring her down if she "tried anything", that all the constituent parts of the UK would declare independence etc etc. Oh, and all the polls were wrong and she couldn't win an election. One guy had been told to put his reports in the bin because they were counter to the proper narrative...
One of them, a bit classically minded, agreed with me when I said "Labienus".... He further predicted a bit of a smash diplomatically when leaders following that kind of briefing tried their hand at negotiating...
I get the Labienus reference. But what do you mean by the last sentence - that the senior diplomats will come a cropper once the politicos get involved, or that the politicos will fail as they follow the senior diplomats advice?
From evidence to date, it seems the former. If you're not on the right page as a diplomat, no matter how senior, you'll be shown the door.
He was talking about politicians being setup to fail by bad briefing.
The senior diplomats are civil servants. They never get fired.
Two things to note (and please correct me if I am reading the situation inaccurately, my knowledge of French politics is less than thorough-going, to put it mildly):
1. Le Pen is much closer to the Far Left platform in economic terms than Macron is, which should help her to win over a sizeable number of Melenchon supporters. 2. Many Far Leftists detested Hollande as a sell-out, and will therefore hate wet centrist Macron even more. Voting for Le Pen, as distinct from an establishment candidate, also represents a chance for change rather than more of the same.
Le Pen + Melenchon voters = 40% of the first round vote on their own (and add in Dupont-Aignan and the minor candidates, and the Eurosceptic vote must've been somewhere near 50%.) Factor in also the social conservative wing of the Fillon vote, and the possibility of differential turnout favouring Le Pen, and my reading is that Macron ought to win - but, perhaps, by rather less than the 60:40 margin the polls imply.
Only just over a week until we find out...
(PS Following the nasty bickering earlier today, let me make it clear that yes, I did vote Leave, but no, I'm not a Le Pen booster. It's not necessarily easy to place yourself in the shoes of people from a different culture and political system, but I'm pretty sure that if I were French I'd be holding my nose and voting for Macron.)
The confusion about the nature of the fascist and pseudo-fascist parties come from the fact that traditional policies of the left and right have moved around.
Originally, free market economics was part of the classical Liberal thing - Corn Law repeal and all that. The traditional reactionary right hated free markets - in fact much of medieval law was about preventing a free market in anything.
With the appearance of socialism (with roots in the folk memories of the times before the Enclosures etc) a large portion of the left moved to statist economics of a frankly medieval nature - price controls etc,
At around the same time, much of the Liberals joined with the non-reactionary right to form the modern right. The combination adopted the free market and made it the selling point of the new right.
So the fascists grabbed a variation on statist economics - control but not ownership, combined with an extreme hatred of free markets. This plus their social conservatism pulled in the old reactionary right, while at the same time, their economics pulled in many from the left.
Former British deputy prime minister Nick Clegg has described as "illogical nonsense" the approach the UK is taking in relation to a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
What he is saying is logically correct. It seems the government's current policy is tell their supporters whatever they want to hear.
If there are no border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland, there will have to be controls between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain. How that will go down is another matter.
I can't believe I put a tenner on the NI Tories winning North Down at 500-1 y'day thanks to some tipster on here.... at least it was a free £10 from Paddy .... 250-1 now!
Yeah, I used a free bet on that one too. Maybe the publicity shy Paddy Power will pay out early
Tempered by the fact that if anyone was caught helping Jews, or any enemies of the Nazi's, they would be shot. Plus as much of their family that the Nazi's could find, and anyone in their village who was about. In Warsaw if any resistance occurred, they would just divert a tram car full of people to a quiet spot and shoot them all.
Which is also true. And that makes it all the more remarkable how many people did risk everything to try and protect Jews in large areas of Europe.
Anyway, Ding against Selby is just warming up nicely and my Friday evening glass of whisky beckons. I shall be off. Have a lovely bank holiday weekend everyone.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - it's the war room
A couple of days ago, I went our for drinks with some friends in the junior end of the Diplomatic. Ended up negotiating Article 50 with a couple of them to uproarious success.... apparently some inhabitants minor European nations think that selling Calais & Boulogne to the UK, in return for 50 billion Euro is an awesome compromise.
Anyway, several of them were moaning about how the higher ups were living in a dream world - apparently, between their own prejudices on matters EU and blandishments from prominnets Europhiles, several embassies were reporting to their governments that T May would be frustrated in trying to do anything other than Brexit in name only, that a cross party coalition of EUrophiles would bring her down if she "tried anything", that all the constituent parts of the UK would declare independence etc etc. Oh, and all the polls were wrong and she couldn't win an election. One guy had been told to put his reports in the bin because they were counter to the proper narrative...
One of them, a bit classically minded, agreed with me when I said "Labienus".... He further predicted a bit of a smash diplomatically when leaders following that kind of briefing tried their hand at negotiating...
I get the Labienus reference. But what do you mean by the last sentence - that the senior diplomats will come a cropper once the politicos get involved, or that the politicos will fail as they follow the senior diplomats advice?
From evidence to date, it seems the former. If you're not on the right page as a diplomat, no matter how senior, you'll be shown the door.
He was talking about politicians being setup to fail by bad briefing.
The senior diplomats are civil servants. They never get fired.
Tell that to our ex-Ambassador from Brussels.
There are ways and ways to fire people.
PS I was in the FCO, so I know how it works.
Then you'll know just how blame runs off some people - a bit like one of those Japanese tower temples...
Think of the knighthoods that have gone to people involved in the Nimrod MRA debacle. Or Iraq....
In truth it's getting a bit boring without any polls to chew over. I hope we get some soon. And we haven't had a single constituency survey yet. Maybe there won't be any this time.
Former British deputy prime minister Nick Clegg has described as "illogical nonsense" the approach the UK is taking in relation to a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
What he is saying is logically correct. It seems the government's current policy is tell their supporters whatever they want to hear.
If there are no border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland, there will have to be controls between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain. How that will go down is another matter.
I think Northern Ireland is one of the few areas where there will be an open negotiation as both sides try to work out what's possible. The rest will be a set of demands, resistance to those demands, a haggle, then agreement.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - it's the war room
A couple of days ago, I went our for drinks with some friends in the junior end of the Diplomatic. Ended up negotiating Article 50 with a couple of them to uproarious success.... apparently some inhabitants minor European nations think that selling Calais & Boulogne to the UK, in return for 50 billion Euro is an awesome compromise.
Anyway, several of them were moaning about how the higher ups were living in a dream world - apparently, between their own prejudices on matters EU and blandishments from prominnets Europhiles, several embassies were reporting to their governments that T May would be frustrated in trying to do anything other than Brexit in name only, that a cross party coalition of EUrophiles would bring her down if she "tried anything", that all the constituent parts of the UK would declare independence etc etc. Oh, and all the polls were wrong and she couldn't win an election. One guy had been told to put his reports in the bin because they were counter to the proper narrative...
One of them, a bit classically minded, agreed with me when I said "Labienus".... He further predicted a bit of a smash diplomatically when leaders following that kind of briefing tried their hand at negotiating...
I get the Labienus reference. But what do you mean by the last sentence - that the senior diplomats will come a cropper once the politicos get involved, or that the politicos will fail as they follow the senior diplomats advice?
From evidence to date, it seems the former. If you're not on the right page as a diplomat, no matter how senior, you'll be shown the door.
He was talking about politicians being setup to fail by bad briefing.
The senior diplomats are civil servants. They never get fired.
Tell that to our ex-Ambassador from Brussels.
There are ways and ways to fire people.
PS I was in the FCO, so I know how it works.
Then you'll know just how blame runs off some people - a bit like one of those Japanese tower temples...
Think of the knighthoods that have gone to people involved in the Nimrod MRA debacle. Or Iraq....
I just don't buy that the politicians will be relying solely on what they are hearing from their embassies, particularly as the FCO is known to be congenitally europhile. And in these days of instant telecommunication, the Embassies no long have the monopoly of supply of such information.
I am sure No. 10, CCHQ and the Brexit Department are doing their own research in addition to what they are getting from the FCO.
I think Northern Ireland is one of the few areas where there will be an open negotiation as both sides try to work out what's possible. The rest will be a set of demands, resistance to those demands, a haggle, then agreement.
He was talking about politicians being setup to fail by bad briefing.
And that worked out well for Labienus in the end, didn't it?
Well, he probably was 50% responsible for the end of the Roman Republic. It was dead on it's feet at that point, but Ceasar was probably up for a compromise.....
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
Tempered by the fact that if anyone was caught helping Jews, or any enemies of the Nazi's, they would be shot. Plus as much of their family that the Nazi's could find, and anyone in their village who was about. In Warsaw if any resistance occurred, they would just divert a tram car full of people to a quiet spot and shoot them all.
Which is also true. And that makes it all the more remarkable how many people did risk everything to try and protect Jews in large areas of Europe.
It really does, I often wonder if I would be able to screw my courage to the sticking place like they did.
how many seats do people think UKIP and the Greens will contest?
I suspect fewer than half in both cases. Greens will dress it up as progressive alliance idea. UKIP as not standing against Brexiteers. In both cases true reason likely to be that they can't find enough candidates and don't have the funds to lose many deposits.
By their own logic the Greens ought to defend Brighton Pavilion, have a crack at Bristol West, and not bother to stand everywhere else (where they have no chance of winning, and can therefore help their "Progressive Alliance" by backing somebody else. In reality, I suspect they've no shortage of upper-middle class, Waitrose-shopping, Champagne-leftist type candidates lined up who are able to fund their own lost deposits.
Ukip really are on their uppers, and might just decide to forfeit most of the Conservative-held seats (again, unless they have candidates and local parties with pockets deep enough to fund their own expenses.)
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - it's the war room : Anyway, several of them were moaning about how the higher ups were living in a dream world - apparently, between their own prejudices on matters EU and blandishments from prominnets Europhiles, several embassies were reporting to their governments that T May would be frustrated in trying to do anything other than Brexit in name only, that a cross party coalition of EUrophiles would bring her down if she "tried anything", that all the constituent parts of the UK would declare independence etc etc. Oh, and all the polls were wrong and she couldn't win an election. One guy had been told to put his reports in the bin because they were counter to the proper narrative...
One of them, a bit classically minded, agreed with me when I said "Labienus".... He further predicted a bit of a smash diplomatically when leaders following that kind of briefing tried their hand at negotiating...
I get the Labienus reference. But what do you mean by the last sentence - that the senior diplomats will come a cropper once the politicos get involved, or that the politicos will fail as they follow the senior diplomats advice?
From evidence to date, it seems the former. If you're not on the right page as a diplomat, no matter how senior, you'll be shown the door.
He was talking about politicians being setup to fail by bad briefing.
The senior diplomats are civil servants. They never get fired.
Tell that to our ex-Ambassador from Brussels.
There are ways and ways to fire people.
PS I was in the FCO, so I know how it works.
Then you'll know just how blame runs off some people - a bit like one of those Japanese tower temples...
Think of the knighthoods that have gone to people involved in the Nimrod MRA debacle. Or Iraq....
I just don't buy that the politicians will be relying solely on what they are hearing from their embassies, particularly as the FCO is known to be congenitally europhile. And in these days of instant telecommunication, the Embassies no long have the monopoly of supply of such information.
I am sure No. 10, CCHQ and the Brexit Department are doing their own research in addition to what they are getting from the FCO.
The people I refer to work in the foreign Diplomatic. While I am sure that our own fools are following in the footsteps of all the great diplomatic disasters of this country...
The problem seemed (from what they said) was that the people at the top were wanting to hear things. And were being told what they wanted. Now what does that remind you of?
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
This may shock you, people hate the Labour party too.
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
This may shock you, people hate the Labour party too.
It does not shock me at all. But the 1997, 2001, 2005 and , indeed , 2010 election results were built on massive tactical voting. In 2010, if there were no tactical voting, the Tories would have won an outright majority.
It was precisely because of the Liberals going into coalition with the Tories that broke the tactical voting understanding in 2015. That hurt the Liberals, in particular, dearly.
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
I interpret the Lab/LD flows in the 2015 support as being more to do with hard leftist true believers (especially middle class armchair radicals) flocking to the banner in one direction, and Europhiles and wet centre-leftists running screaming in the other. Tactical voting wouldn't show up in these movements, as any voters inclined to vote "anyone but Tory" would also have done that two years ago, would they not?
You wonder what it would do to Irish politics? Take a look at this thread header where Mr Smithson openly compares leavers with fascists (thats those people who gassed 7 million jews for those with short memories) and is openly cheered on by Mr TSE, an alleged conservative. THAT's what it would do to Irish politics.
Having just seen this, it might be worth reminding people that while all Nazis were fascists, not all fascists are Nazis. To take one rather intriguing example, Horthy was a fascist, not a Nazi, and while he had no love for Jews and treated them extremely badly it is ironic to reflect Hungary was invaded and he was ultimately deposed for failing to instantly deport them to Auschwitz when Hitler demanded them. snip I knew about it, or at least, I knew it was part of it. It wasn't until last summer that I found how widespread it was across Eastern Europe.
In Eastern Europe locals sometimes helpfully pointed out jews to the Germans and often went way beyond that and gave them a helping hand.
The most astonishing one I heard of was where a large group of Jews were liberated from a camp in Poland by the local resistance - I think it was Konskowla, but I can't remember for definite. About half fled, the rest were transferred to Budzyn camp, run by a man called Fredriks whom even the Nazis considered a psychotic bastard. The ones who fled were all killed by the local farmers hunting them down - with one exception. He worked out he had no chance of evading the farmers, and he was doomed unless he could be protected from them. So he walked to Budzyn and gave himself up. He lived to the end of the war. A truly bizarre reversal of normality where you are safer inside a camp run by a murderer than outside in a forest!
Tempered by the fact that if anyone was caught helping Jews, or any enemies of the Nazi's, they would be shot. Plus as much of their family that the Nazi's could find, and anyone in their village who was about. In Warsaw if any resistance occurred, they would just divert a tram car full of people to a quiet spot and shoot them all.
I read a book about the march of a panzer division to Normandy post D Day.
There were sporadic acts of sabotage en route and they went into a town with plenty of rope, gathered people up and marched round town hanging someone from lamp post after lamp post.
In Russia normal Heer would take pictures of executions and send them home to relatives.
"Here's the dinner they fed us tonight. Literally slices of bread, cheese, and salad with no dressing"
No dressing!!!! Disaster !!!!
A bit mean, yes. Forget the rich kid aspect, and put yourself in their position, particularly in relation to the absence of accommodation, water and security, all while cashless. Does not sound like fun to me. And I've done the third world armpit thing to death.
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
It is almost impossible for anyone to propose a plan for the NHS past giving them more money currently, yes they do need higher spending levels but they also need to be organised better and have measurable goals. But not one is willing to take the kicking that results from proposing change.
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
It'd be nice if The Maybot emerged from whichever safe space she's hiding in to say anything substantive at all.
I thought Miliband's Labour was the very apex of repeating meaningless slogans ad nauseam but May is in a different league.
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
It'd be nice if The Maybot emerged from whichever safe space she's hiding in to say anything substantive at all.
I thought Miliband's Labour was the very apex of repeating meaningless slogans ad nauseam but May is in a different league.
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
It is almost impossible for anyone to propose a plan for the NHS past giving them more money currently, yes they do need higher spending levels but they also need to be organised better and have measurable goals. But not one is willing to take the kicking that results from proposing change.
My preference is for NHS spending to be separated from general taxation, appearing as a new line on payslips etc. I think people will tolerate that 'tax' going up relative to everything else.
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
This may shock you, people hate the Labour party too.
Me for one. As a teenager in the late 70s I had the misfortune to be a hospital inpatient at a time when the pulbic sector unions were at war with the Labour government. Neither of them gave a flying whatever about the people they were supposed to be looking after. Don't anybody ever try to tell me the NHS is safer with that lot. It left me with a visceral loathing of Labour that has never left me.
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
It is almost impossible for anyone to propose a plan for the NHS past giving them more money currently, yes they do need higher spending levels but they also need to be organised better and have measurable goals. But not one is willing to take the kicking that results from proposing change.
My preference is for NHS spending to be separated from general taxation, appearing as a new line on payslips etc. I think people will tolerate that 'tax' going up relative to everything else.
So, like it is an insurance payment then with a rising premium? Sounds like privatisation to me, you filthy TORY!
It strikes me that the Lib Dems are somehow being particularly casual about this election. They seem to think that they are going to do well regardless, as if it was some sort of immutable law of the universe. Something in my bones tells me they are going to get clobbered in June.
It strikes me that the Lib Dems are somehow being particularly casual about this election. They seem to think that they are going to do well regardless, as if it was some sort of immutable law of the universe. Something in my bones tells me they are going to get clobbered in June.
It's 2022 I'm looking forward to now. If the Tories haven't split by then.
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
This may shock you, people hate the Labour party too.
Me for one. As a teenager in the late 70s I had the misfortune to be a hospital inpatient at a time when the pulbic sector unions were at war with the Labour government. Neither of them gave a flying whatever about the people they were supposed to be looking after. Don't anybody ever try to tell me the NHS is safer with that lot. It left me with a visceral loathing of Labour that has never left me.
I'd be entirely happy to see the Labour Party vanish. But, there needs to be a left of centre party that is sane.
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
It is almost impossible for anyone to propose a plan for the NHS past giving them more money currently, yes they do need higher spending levels but they also need to be organised better and have measurable goals. But not one is willing to take the kicking that results from proposing change.
My preference is for NHS spending to be separated from general taxation, appearing as a new line on payslips etc. I think people will tolerate that 'tax' going up relative to everything else.
So, like it is an insurance payment then with a rising premium? Sounds like privatisation to me, you filthy TORY!
And so on. Change is hated around the NHS.
And billing. Pay for people, but send them a copy of the bill. Would be interesting to see faces when they realise what a GP consultation costs.
"Here's the dinner they fed us tonight. Literally slices of bread, cheese, and salad with no dressing"
No dressing!!!! Disaster !!!!
A bit mean, yes. Forget the rich kid aspect, and put yourself in their position, particularly in relation to the absence of accommodation, water and security, all while cashless. Does not sound like fun to me. And I've done the third world armpit thing to death.
Yes, you're probably right that it's a little mean. But I still find it funny. It'll be like Richard Navabi or SeanT paying £400 for a meal and finding it's chips in a plastic tray from the local kebab van.
Her Leave-Remain vacillations did her no harm - Dr Sarah Wollaston was unanimously elected tonight as Conservative candidate, by a very large general meeting.
Tempered by the fact that if anyone was caught helping Jews, or any enemies of the Nazi's, they would be shot. Plus as much of their family that the Nazi's could find, and anyone in their village who was about. In Warsaw if any resistance occurred, they would just divert a tram car full of people to a quiet spot and shoot them all.
Which is also true. And that makes it all the more remarkable how many people did risk everything to try and protect Jews in large areas of Europe.
It strikes me that the Lib Dems are somehow being particularly casual about this election. They seem to think that they are going to do well regardless, as if it was some sort of immutable law of the universe. Something in my bones tells me they are going to get clobbered in June.
I think you could be right - the LibDem-voting ladies of a certain age are going to be attracted to Theresa May in huge numbers.
Her Leave-Remain vacillations did her no harm - Dr Sarah Wollaston was unanimously elected tonight as Conservative candidate, by a very large general meeting.
What price she's no longer a Tory by Jan 2022 though? Both the NHS and Hard Brexit could test her resolve.
Her Leave-Remain vacillations did her no harm - Dr Sarah Wollaston was unanimously elected tonight as Conservative candidate, by a very large general meeting.
What price she's no longer a Tory by Jan 2022 though? Both the NHS and Hard Brexit could test her resolve.
She's a Tory. Just a frustrated one sometimes.... But most of us who are Tories have been there from time to time!
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
A sensible proposal would be to remove it from politics altogether. Party politics has not helped the NHS
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
A sensible proposal would be to remove it from politics altogether. Party politics has not helped the NHS
Health will always be political. Like education and tax.
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
A sensible proposal would be to remove it from politics altogether. Party politics has not helped the NHS
But the public would still blame the politicians, and they would be the ones getting kicked in the nuts for it with no actual recourse to solving anything. We could just take it out of the public sector completely, ring fence payments from people's payslips where it goes directly to funding the NHS and then let them be run as a non-profit. Almost like the insurance based system in Europe, but then there would be outcries of privatisation.
Her Leave-Remain vacillations did her no harm - Dr Sarah Wollaston was unanimously elected tonight as Conservative candidate, by a very large general meeting.
Her Leave-Remain vacillations did her no harm - Dr Sarah Wollaston was unanimously elected tonight as Conservative candidate, by a very large general meeting.
Her Leave-Remain vacillations did her no harm - Dr Sarah Wollaston was unanimously elected tonight as Conservative candidate, by a very large general meeting.
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
A sensible proposal would be to remove it from politics altogether. Party politics has not helped the NHS
But the public would still blame the politicians, and they would be the ones getting kicked in the nuts for it with no actual recourse to solving anything. We could just take it out of the public sector completely, ring fence payments from people's payslips where it goes directly to funding the NHS and then let them be run as a non-profit. Almost like the insurance based system in Europe, but then there would be outcries of privatisation.
Good luck suggesting that 8+% of GDP should be spent with democratic control.
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
A sensible proposal would be to remove it from politics altogether. Party politics has not helped the NHS
Health will always be political. Like education and tax.
Sure but I meant at some point someone is going to have to face up to the fact it needs major change and reform, not just either tinkering or a few billion chucked randomly at it
A non-political body/review/expert panel might be able to do this. Or at least produce some starkly unpopular numbers on predictions for funding requirements over the next few decades and options for how to go about finding the cash. Followed by a sensible national debate
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
It'd be nice if The Maybot emerged from whichever safe space she's hiding in to say anything substantive at all.
I thought Miliband's Labour was the very apex of repeating meaningless slogans ad nauseam but May is in a different league.
Meeting with the Japanese PM today at chequers discussing trade. Theresa May gets on with the day job promoting this great Country while Corbyn self destructs
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
This may shock you, people hate the Labour party too.
Me for one. As a teenager in the late 70s I had the misfortune to be a hospital inpatient at a time when the pulbic sector unions were at war with the Labour government. Neither of them gave a flying whatever about the people they were supposed to be looking after. Don't anybody ever try to tell me the NHS is safer with that lot. It left me with a visceral loathing of Labour that has never left me.
I'd be entirely happy to see the Labour Party vanish. But, there needs to be a left of centre party that is sane.
Funnily enough, I'm reading Never Had it So Good at the moment, by Dominic Sandbrook.
The Labour Party of the 1940s and 1950s comes across just as patriotic as the Conservatives, to an extent that really surprised me, even more hawkish on defence, favouring higher defence spending, to the point of introducing prescription charges in the NHS in the early 1950s to pay for it, a big defender of parliamentary democracy, more eurosceptic than the then Conservatives, and a firm believer in Britain as an independent global power.
That 60% "maybe" figure for the LibDems is extraordinary!
My Dad has only ever voted Labour.. voted Leave... cant have Corbyn...likes May, but wont vote Tory... thinks UKIP have had it... said he might vote Lib Dem!*
Back to the safe old NOTA world, the safe option for the undecided where they cant do any damage
*didn't have the heart to remind him they are on holiday on June 8th anyway
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
This may shock you, people hate the Labour party too.
Me for one. As a teenager in the late 70s I had the misfortune to be a hospital inpatient at a time when the pulbic sector unions were at war with the Labour government. Neither of them gave a flying whatever about the people they were supposed to be looking after. Don't anybody ever try to tell me the NHS is safer with that lot. It left me with a visceral loathing of Labour that has never left me.
I'd be entirely happy to see the Labour Party vanish. But, there needs to be a left of centre party that is sane.
Funnily enough, I'm reading Never Had it So Good at the moment, by Dominic Sandbrook.
The Labour Party of the 1940s and 1950s comes across just as patriotic as the Conservatives, to an extent that really surprised me, even more hawkish on defence, favouring higher defence spending, to the point of introducing prescription charges in the NHS in the early 1950s to pay for it, a big defender of parliamentary democracy, more eurosceptic than the then Conservatives, and a firm believer in Britain as an independent global power.
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
A sensible proposal would be to remove it from politics altogether. Party politics has not helped the NHS
But the public would still blame the politicians, and they would be the ones getting kicked in the nuts for it with no actual recourse to solving anything. We could just take it out of the public sector completely, ring fence payments from people's payslips where it goes directly to funding the NHS and then let them be run as a non-profit. Almost like the insurance based system in Europe, but then there would be outcries of privatisation.
Good luck suggesting that 8+% of GDP should be spent with democratic control.
I prefer the European system for the long term, ours is increasingly unsustainable.
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
This may shock you, people hate the Labour party too.
Me for one. As a teenager in the late 70s I had the misfortune to be a hospital inpatient at a time when the pulbic sector unions were at war with the Labour government. Neither of them gave a flying whatever about the people they were supposed to be looking after. Don't anybody ever try to tell me the NHS is safer with that lot. It left me with a visceral loathing of Labour that has never left me.
I'd be entirely happy to see the Labour Party vanish. But, there needs to be a left of centre party that is sane.
Funnily enough, I'm reading Never Had it So Good at the moment, by Dominic Sandbrook.
The Labour Party of the 1940s and 1950s comes across just as patriotic as the Conservatives, to an extent that really surprised me, even more hawkish on defence, favouring higher defence spending, to the point of introducing prescription charges in the NHS in the early 1950s to pay for it, a big defender of parliamentary democracy, more eurosceptic than the then Conservatives, and a firm believer in Britain as an independent global power.
I'm just at the end of a meal in a Michelin starred restaurant in France. And it's been terrific.
Reports of the death of French cuisine (from SeanT) have been exaggerated.
It is important to remember that Sean T is a professional writer of fiction. I have long suspected that his postings on PB.com about his exotic lifestyle are a similar work of fiction, and that in reality he lives in a bedsit in Neasden, existing on a diet of pot noodle and Subways.
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
This may shock you, people hate the Labour party too.
:
I'd be entirely happy to see the Labour Party vanish. But, there needs to be a left of centre party that is sane.
Funnily enough, I'm reading Never Had it So Good at the moment, by Dominic Sandbrook.
The Labour Party of the 1940s and 1950s comes across just as patriotic as the Conservatives, to an extent that really surprised me, even more hawkish on defence, favouring higher defence spending, to the point of introducing prescription charges in the NHS in the early 1950s to pay for it, a big defender of parliamentary democracy, more eurosceptic than the then Conservatives, and a firm believer in Britain as an independent global power.
What happened to that Party?
The cultural revolution, then Militant
They left their voters, since they were Deplorable.
» show previous quotes You're wrong. As Hitler said, you only have to promise your people blood, sweat and tears, and they will follow you anywhere.
If the EU follows through on their rhetoric of trying to hurt us, and dismember the UK, we will unite (most of us) and tell them to Do One. Fuck them. They will be seen as an enemy, we don't yield meekly to enemies. We fight.
I sincerely hope this doesn't happen. But I have no doubts that it could.
LOL, all the millionaires will be lining up for their Dad's Army uniforms, Sean will be an old Pike or more likely Corporal Jones
Actually, we will do this if the EU27 gang up: see 1:24 - 3:06:
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking. .
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
This may shock you, people hate the Labour party too.
Me for one. As a teenager in the late 70s I had the misfortune to be a hospital inpatient at a time when the pulbic sector unions were at war with the Labour government. Neither of them gave a flying whatever about the people they were supposed to be looking after. Don't anybody ever try to tell me the NHS is safer with that lot. It left me with a visceral loathing of Labour that has never left me.
I'd be entirely happy to see the Labour Party vanish. But, there needs to be a left of centre party that is sane.
Funnily enough, I'm reading Never Had it So Good at the moment, by Dominic Sandbrook.
The Labour Party of the 1940s and 1950s comes across just as patriotic as the Conservatives, to an extent that really surprised me, even more hawkish on defence, favouring higher defence spending, to the point of introducing prescription charges in the NHS in the early 1950s to pay for it, a big defender of parliamentary democracy, more eurosceptic than the then Conservatives, and a firm believer in Britain as an independent global power.
It strikes me that the Lib Dems are somehow being particularly casual about this election. They seem to think that they are going to do well regardless, as if it was some sort of immutable law of the universe. Something in my bones tells me they are going to get clobbered in June.
I think you could be right - the LibDem-voting ladies of a certain age are going to be attracted to Theresa May in huge numbers.
I've done a Robert "I'm hawkish on the LDs" Smithson, and backed the LDs on 0-10 seats at 14/1.
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
This may shock you, people hate the Labour party too.
Me for one. As a teenager in the late 70s I had the misfortune to be a hospital inpatient at a time when the pulbic sector unions were at war with the Labour government. Neither of them gave a flying whatever about the people they were supposed to be looking after. Don't anybody ever try to tell me the NHS is safer with that lot. It left me with a visceral loathing of Labour that has never left me.
I'd be entirely happy to see the Labour Party vanish. But, there needs to be a left of centre party that is sane.
Funnily enough, I'm reading Never Had it So Good at the moment, by Dominic Sandbrook.
The Labour Party of the 1940s and 1950s comes across just as patriotic as the Conservatives, to an extent that really surprised me, even more hawkish on defence, favouring higher defence spending, to the point of introducing prescription charges in the NHS in the early 1950s to pay for it, a big defender of parliamentary democracy, more eurosceptic than the then Conservatives, and a firm believer in Britain as an independent global power.
What happened to that Party?
All the Dominic Sandbrook histories are worth reading. You have a great many fun evenings ahead of you.
» show previous quotes You're wrong. As Hitler said, you only have to promise your people blood, sweat and tears, and they will follow you anywhere.
If the EU follows through on their rhetoric of trying to hurt us, and dismember the UK, we will unite (most of us) and tell them to Do One. Fuck them. They will be seen as an enemy, we don't yield meekly to enemies. We fight.
I sincerely hope this doesn't happen. But I have no doubts that it could.
LOL, all the millionaires will be lining up for their Dad's Army uniforms, Sean will be an old Pike or more likely Corporal Jones
Actually, we will do this if the EU27 gang up: see 1:24 - 3:06:
I really hope the Conservative party put forward a sane and comprehensive plan for healthcare in this country going forward. It's criminal that this isn't being looked at properly.
A sensible proposal would be to remove it from politics altogether. Party politics has not helped the NHS
But the public would still blame the politicians, and they would be the ones getting kicked in the nuts for it with no actual recourse to solving anything. We could just take it out of the public sector completely, ring fence payments from people's payslips where it goes directly to funding the NHS and then let them be run as a non-profit. Almost like the insurance based system in Europe, but then there would be outcries of privatisation.
Good luck suggesting that 8+% of GDP should be spent with democratic control.
I prefer the European system for the long term, ours is increasingly unsustainable.
In every country they say the same thing.
The dirty secret is this - rationing is imposed by constraining resources. Doctors and nurses feel upset at the idea of turning patients away, so they push the system to it's limits. It the plan*...
Why do you think there was a panic when the European Court ruled that health tourism was a right? and how it go fixed so quickly? Just imagine that everyone on the NHS waiting list got their operation. And go it paid for. Repeat for Germany, France etc....
*"You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all "part of the plan"...
Labour's collapse in Scotland in 2015 will have knocked approx 2% off their GB vote share.In other words , had that not happened the national polls would be recording Labour poll ratings of 28%/29% - rather than 26% /27%. This rather implies that Labour's current support in England & Wales is very similar to 1983 and 2010.
On topic: the Ipsos Mori data highlighted above is no great surprise. I've not been paying particular attention to the certainty to vote figures in the polls (at least not by party; the yawning chasm between the different age cohorts is something I usually take note of,) but I do like to check out the migrations of 2015 voters between the parties, and those figures are pretty consistent and striking.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
Let's say 20% of Labour goes to the Lib Dems [ in Lib Dem first or second seats ] and 30% of Lib Dem votes go to Labour [ in Labour first or second seats ].
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
This may shock you, people hate the Labour party too.
Me for one. As a teenager in the late 70s I had the misfortune to be a hospital inpatient at a time when the pulbic sector unions were at war with the Labour government. Neither of them gave a flying whatever about the people they were supposed to be looking after. Don't anybody ever try to tell me the NHS is safer with that lot. It left me with a visceral loathing of Labour that has never left me.
I'd be entirely happy to see the Labour Party vanish. But, there needs to be a left of centre party that is sane.
Funnily enough, I'm reading Never Had it So Good at the moment, by Dominic Sandbrook.
The Labour Party of the 1940s and 1950s comes across just as patriotic as the Conservatives, to an extent that really surprised me, even more hawkish on defence, favouring higher defence spending, to the point of introducing prescription charges in the NHS in the early 1950s to pay for it, a big defender of parliamentary democracy, more eurosceptic than the then Conservatives, and a firm believer in Britain as an independent global power.
What happened to that Party?
Hampstead concerns became more important than St. Pancras concerns.
As was posted the other night , although there is a lower % of softer Conservative voters they are numerically larger . If half of all those who may change their vote actually did so the Conservative vote share would go down not up .
Labour's collapse in Scotland in 2015 will have knocked approx 2% off their GB vote share.In other words , had that not happened the national polls would be recording Labour poll ratings of 28%/29% - rather than 26% /27%. This rather implies that Labour's current support in England & Wales is very similar to 1983 and 2010.
Yep pretty much that, plus a bit of cultural Marxism, and a bit of the New Left.
It used to be simple, workers voted for the party of the workers. i.e. Labour. Now left wing politics is all incomprehensible theories about things most ordinary people don't care about, or have the time to get to grips with. It's a lot less appealing to people who want a better standard of living, and to see the country progress.
As was posted the other night , although there is a lower % of softer Conservative voters they are numerically larger . If half of all those who may change their vote actually did so the Conservative vote share would go down not up .
Labour's collapse in Scotland in 2015 will have knocked approx 2% off their GB vote share.In other words , had that not happened the national polls would be recording Labour poll ratings of 28%/29% - rather than 26% /27%. This rather implies that Labour's current support in England & Wales is very similar to 1983 and 2010.
Not a chance - one word Justin - Corbyn
Are you disputing my arithmetic - ie that losing Scotland has reduced Labour's GB rating by circa 2%?
It strikes me that the Lib Dems are somehow being particularly casual about this election. They seem to think that they are going to do well regardless, as if it was some sort of immutable law of the universe. Something in my bones tells me they are going to get clobbered in June.
It's 2022 I'm looking forward to now. If the Tories haven't split by then.
I agree, the Lib Dems will get hammered in this election in England. I wonder if Nick Clegg is at risk - an under the radar operation by the Tories. On the other side of the coin in Scotland they might take seats back but it depends on whether the unionist vote can be intelligent.
Her Leave-Remain vacillations did her no harm - Dr Sarah Wollaston was unanimously elected tonight as Conservative candidate, by a very large general meeting.
Next Health Secretary - it would be a bold choice
She has pissed off a lot of people during her time in the Awkward Squad....
Labour's collapse in Scotland in 2015 will have knocked approx 2% off their GB vote share.In other words , had that not happened the national polls would be recording Labour poll ratings of 28%/29% - rather than 26% /27%. This rather implies that Labour's current support in England & Wales is very similar to 1983 and 2010.
Not a chance - one word Justin - Corbyn
Are you disputing my arithmetic - ie that losing Scotland has reduced Labour's GB rating by circa 2%?
I would never dispute your maths Justin but labour are heading for an existential crisis across the whole of the UK on 8th June no matter how you apply a mathematical formula
As was posted the other night , although there is a lower % of softer Conservative voters they are numerically larger . If half of all those who may change their vote actually did so the Conservative vote share would go down not up .
I expect the Tory vote to either flatline or go down slightly in a lot of Remain areas like Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Bath, etc, particularly where the Labour vote is already very low because most Tory gains at this election will come from lower-middle class Labour voters and not from other sources. Therefore if that type of vote is already at rock bottom there won't be anywhere for an increase in the Con share to come from. Newbury is a good example.
Her Leave-Remain vacillations did her no harm - Dr Sarah Wollaston was unanimously elected tonight as Conservative candidate, by a very large general meeting.
Next Health Secretary - it would be a bold choice
She has pissed off a lot of people during her time in the Awkward Squad....
I know but she does seek to take it out of politics and she would be good in that respect - however I do think it is unlikely
Comments
ps - women, sit over there in the segregated section >>>>>>>
The protesters are greedy pricks. I have seen my club do the double twice, win the league unbeaten, win the league in the last minute away at the best side of its generation and come within 20 mins of winning the CL; more than most can dream of in a lifetime. Some people just cant take the (not that) rough with the smooth
Or perhaps not.
But it is not widely known that he had also, a short while before, privately referred to Thatcher as 'a corporal in a skirt, not a cavalry officer.' She got to hear about it and from then on probably never trusted him.
In Warsaw if any resistance occurred, they would just divert a tram car full of people to a quiet spot and shoot them all.
http://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0421/869260-clegg-brexit-border/
Former British deputy prime minister Nick Clegg has described as "illogical nonsense" the approach the UK is taking in relation to a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/04/28/nicolas-dupont-aignan-annonce-avoir-passe-un-accord-de-gouvernement-avec-marine-le-pen_5119759_4854003.html
@rcs1000 - Not such a sensible Eurosceptic now, is he?
There are ways and ways to fire people.
PS I was in the FCO, so I know how it works.
Originally, free market economics was part of the classical Liberal thing - Corn Law repeal and all that. The traditional reactionary right hated free markets - in fact much of medieval law was about preventing a free market in anything.
With the appearance of socialism (with roots in the folk memories of the times before the Enclosures etc) a large portion of the left moved to statist economics of a frankly medieval nature - price controls etc,
At around the same time, much of the Liberals joined with the non-reactionary right to form the modern right. The combination adopted the free market and made it the selling point of the new right.
So the fascists grabbed a variation on statist economics - control but not ownership, combined with an extreme hatred of free markets. This plus their social conservatism pulled in the old reactionary right, while at the same time, their economics pulled in many from the left.
Le Pen is following this model to a T.
If there are no border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland, there will have to be controls between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain. How that will go down is another matter.
I have linked to this before - it is very informative, with some real surprises (like making Mussolini look good.)
Think of the knighthoods that have gone to people involved in the Nimrod MRA debacle. Or Iraq....
I am sure No. 10, CCHQ and the Brexit Department are doing their own research in addition to what they are getting from the FCO.
Is it bad of me to find this story hilarious?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/39743303/luxury-fyre-festival-is-cancelled-with-ticket-holders-still-stranded-in-bahamas
"Here's the dinner they fed us tonight. Literally slices of bread, cheese, and salad with no dressing"
No dressing!!!! Disaster !!!!
Why would that imply any softness of either party's supporters ? You should not underestimate the hatred of many towards the Tory party.
Ukip really are on their uppers, and might just decide to forfeit most of the Conservative-held seats (again, unless they have candidates and local parties with pockets deep enough to fund their own expenses.)
The problem seemed (from what they said) was that the people at the top were wanting to hear things. And were being told what they wanted. Now what does that remind you of?
It was precisely because of the Liberals going into coalition with the Tories that broke the tactical voting understanding in 2015. That hurt the Liberals, in particular, dearly.
Who said "I hope he's rational." about Kim Jong Un?
But not one is willing to take the kicking that results from proposing change.
I thought Miliband's Labour was the very apex of repeating meaningless slogans ad nauseam but May is in a different league.
And so on. Change is hated around the NHS.
We could just take it out of the public sector completely, ring fence payments from people's payslips where it goes directly to funding the NHS and then let them be run as a non-profit. Almost like the insurance based system in Europe, but then there would be outcries of privatisation.
Reports of the death of French cuisine (from SeanT) have been exaggerated.
I wouldn't have voted for her.
A non-political body/review/expert panel might be able to do this. Or at least produce some starkly unpopular numbers on predictions for funding requirements over the next few decades and options for how to go about finding the cash. Followed by a sensible national debate
I know...pipe dream :-/
The Labour Party of the 1940s and 1950s comes across just as patriotic as the Conservatives, to an extent that really surprised me, even more hawkish on defence, favouring higher defence spending, to the point of introducing prescription charges in the NHS in the early 1950s to pay for it, a big defender of parliamentary democracy, more eurosceptic than the then Conservatives, and a firm believer in Britain as an independent global power.
What happened to that Party?
Back to the safe old NOTA world, the safe option for the undecided where they cant do any damage
*didn't have the heart to remind him they are on holiday on June 8th anyway
Then Gordon Brown.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raBNUUj1-fY
Sad.
The dirty secret is this - rationing is imposed by constraining resources. Doctors and nurses feel upset at the idea of turning patients away, so they push the system to it's limits. It the plan*...
Why do you think there was a panic when the European Court ruled that health tourism was a right? and how it go fixed so quickly? Just imagine that everyone on the NHS waiting list got their operation. And go it paid for. Repeat for Germany, France etc....
*"You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all "part of the plan"...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-39749203
It used to be simple, workers voted for the party of the workers. i.e. Labour. Now left wing politics is all incomprehensible theories about things most ordinary people don't care about, or have the time to get to grips with. It's a lot less appealing to people who want a better standard of living, and to see the country progress.
Weird, lightweight and nasty is not a good look.