Somewhat jaw-dropping that someone can be an MP for 16 years without anyone noticing they're a homophobe.
When he was first elected in 2001, his views were mainstream Tory party policy.
Opposition to gay marriage was mainstream Tory policy, saying homosexuality was 'dangerous to society' was certainly not party policy under Hague
Why was Theresa May opposed to the repeal of Section 28 around that time? That legislation only made sense if you believed that homosexuality was 'dangerous to society'.
Somewhat jaw-dropping that someone can be an MP for 16 years without anyone noticing they're a homophobe.
When he was first elected in 2001, his views were mainstream Tory party policy.
I wonder what Farron's views were in 2001?
Possibly not too different. Attitudes to sexuality, race and gender have radically changed over the decades. There is some evidence that even in migrant religious communities there has been a big shift in the same direction, albeit a couple of decades behind.
Attitudes don't always become more liberal over time. The Victorians were arguably more conservative than the Georgians.
I tried to stick some figures into Sunderland South and Houghton (Current Lab Majority 13000 - 69th safest seat) - purely as this is probably the first to declare.
(This assumes that half the 'Labour don't know if we'll stay to the party' actually do so and that the no longer Labour vote splits 70% Lib Dem - 25% Tory and the no longer UKIP vote 70% Tory, 30% Labour - I assumed ex Tories are mainly going to the Lib Dems (the europhile section)
I would suspect that the ex-Labour-voter in a heavily WWC areas will be MUCH higher than 36%, if only because it will be much lower in heavily multicultural areas.
Any thoughts?
Why do you think the LibDems are going to get that many votes when they never have previously ?
I assume the Europhile Labour Supporters will be more likely to move away. Labour was a Remain party in 2016 wasn't it - and Corbyn is pro-brexit.
I very much doubt there are going to be so many people switch their vote because of Brexit.
Certainly the opinion polls show no evidence of it.
One of the problems that we had last year (costing some people, not here, lots of money) was that the polling wasn't picking up 'The Deplorables'. Will they come out to ensure the best chance for a Brexit deal (Tory) or revert to Labour (the traditional home) - and are the polls picking them up.
In this election I am voting Conservative (In Bishop Auckland, having voted UKIP in 2015) - however my aim on this site is NOT to promote Conservative politics (too much), but to try and contribute to the data analysis.
The UKIP vote was 8280 - 21.5%, taking them down to 5000 represents a 40% drop - and the current polls suggest that 13% in 2015 is dropping to 7-8% so it seems reasonable. The question is - is all that vote going to the Tories. If it did then Labour would still win
In a footnote of history, Woodward defected to Labour, moved seat and Dave Cameron got his old seat, as I recall.
There is a difference between opposing a law which prevented 'promotion' of homosexuality to schoolchildren and banning or restricting homosexuality for adults, Hague even sent messages of support to Gay Pride
In a footnote of history, Woodward defected to Labour, moved seat and Dave Cameron got his old seat, as I recall.
A blast from the past. Woodward was a vile human being.
On this issue he was correct. His defection and move to St Helens paved the way for one of the greatest modern campaigners for gay rights. Without it, the history of David Cameron might have been very different.
Apologies if this has been posted already, but what is the deal with the Betfair Sportsbook odds in Dundee East?
You mean UKIP being 1/200 instead of 200/1?
While that would make more sense it does not explain the odds of the others. 33/1 for both LD and Con? All the prices just seem wrong.
No, only the UKIP price is clearly wrong. Betfair obviously intended to price as SNP 1/200, UKIP 200/1, rest 33/1. UKIP one obviously inverted, rest as Betfair intended.
In a footnote of history, Woodward defected to Labour, moved seat and Dave Cameron got his old seat, as I recall.
There is a difference between opposing a law which prevented 'promotion' of homosexuality to schoolchildren and banning or restricting homosexuality for adults, Hague even sent messages of support to Gay Pride
The intention of Section 28 was to suppress gay activism under threat of the law. Most senior Tories now agree that it was a mistake.
Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine's father, has made headlines by criticising the ceremony held to honour the policeman who was recently murdered on the Champs Elysées, at which the dead man's gay husband delivered a eulogy before François Hollande and many other state officials. He described the speech as "exalting" gay marriage.
Does this intervention help Marine Le Pen's campaign or harm it?
For background, consider that Dominique Venner, a traditionalist Catholic historian and former figure in the OAS, shot himself dead in front of the high altar in Notre Dame cathedral four years ago, days after the law introducing gay marriage came into effect. Venner's suicide was in protest against gay marriage and against a perceived Melanie Phillipsite prospect of the "Islamisation" of France and Europe.
Marine Le Pen responded by expressing her respect for Venner, describing his "political act" that was an attempt "to wake up the people of France". She added that "it is in life and hope that France will renew and save itself."
Emmanuel Macron is right to associate Marine Le Pen with the line that comes down from the OAS. That line also extends backwards to Action Française and the whole monarchist reaction to the French revolution. As we know, De Gaulle rode back to power in 1958 promising to keep Algeria French and then stabbed his comrades in the back, leading them to try to kill him and to start a civil war in France.
In Japan, Yukio Mishima failed.
But in France, who said the OAS wouldn't get the last laugh?
There's a question as to who looks more "German", Macron or Le Pen? Each is trying to pin that character on the other.
Meanwhile in the US, Trump's ear-whisperer Stephen Bannon praises Jean Raspail's vile race-war novel "The Camp of the Saints" to the skies.
In other news. Emmanuel Macron's wife Brigitte is a teacher at a Jesuit school. Did she get her first marriage annulled or what?
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
Its going to be interesting to see how individual SNP MPs who feel their seats might be at risk now circumvent the SNP rule that bans them from publically criticise their 'party' (in effect the Leadership team). I get the feeling that some are now finally going to suddenly discover that they now want to be seen to be putting their constituents rather than their party first at Westminster.
Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine's father, has made headlines by criticising the ceremony held to honour the policeman who was recently murdered on the Champs Elysées, at which the dead man's gay husband delivered a eulogy before François Hollande and many other state officials. He described the speech as "exalting" gay marriage.
Does this intervention help Marine Le Pen's campaign or harm it?
For background, consider that Dominique Venner, a traditionalist Catholic historian and former figure in the OAS, shot himself dead in front of the high altar in Notre Dame cathedral four years ago, days after the law introducing gay marriage came into effect. Venner's suicide was in protest against gay marriage and against a perceived Melanie Phillipsite prospect of the "Islamisation" of France and Europe.
Marine Le Pen responded by expressing her respect for Venner, describing his "political act" that was an attempt "to wake up the people of France". She added that "it is in life and hope that France will renew and save itself."
Emmanuel Macron is right to associate Marine Le Pen with the line that comes down from the OAS. That line also extends backwards to Action Française and the whole monarchist reaction to the French revolution. As we know, De Gaulle rode back to power in 1958 promising to keep Algeria French and then stabbed his comrades in the back, leading them to try to kill him and to start a civil war in France.
In Japan, Yukio Mishima failed.
But in France, who said the OAS wouldn't get the last laugh?
There's a question as to who looks more "German", Macron or Le Pen? Each is trying to pin that character on the other.
Meanwhile in the US, Trump's ear-whisperer Stephen Bannon praises Jean Raspail's vile race-war novel "The Camp of the Saints" to the skies.
In other news. Emmanuel Macron's wife Brigitte is a teacher at a Jesuit school. Did she get her first marriage annulled or what?
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
Its going to be interesting to see how individual SNP MPs who feel their seats might be at risk now circumvent the SNP rule that bans them from publically criticise their 'party' (in effect the Leadership team). I get the feeling that some are now finally going to suddenly discover that they now want to be seen to be putting their constituents rather than their party first at Westminster.
In a footnote of history, Woodward defected to Labour, moved seat and Dave Cameron got his old seat, as I recall.
There is a difference between opposing a law which prevented 'promotion' of homosexuality to schoolchildren and banning or restricting homosexuality for adults, Hague even sent messages of support to Gay Pride
The intention of Section 28 was to suppress gay activism under threat of the law. Most senior Tories now agree that it was a mistake.
The effect was to prevent teachers from honestly answering questions from students. The intention was to prevent any discussion in Schools of "alternative sexualities". If a student was raised by a same-sex couple, this was problematic, as we had to treat their parents as "a pretended family relationship".
Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine's father, has made headlines by criticising the ceremony held to honour the policeman who was recently murdered on the Champs Elysées, at which the dead man's gay husband delivered a eulogy before François Hollande and many other state officials. He described the speech as "exalting" gay marriage.
Does this intervention help Marine Le Pen's campaign or harm it?
For background, consider that Dominique Venner, a traditionalist Catholic historian and former figure in the OAS, shot himself dead in front of the high altar in Notre Dame cathedral four years ago, days after the law introducing gay marriage came into effect. Venner's suicide was in protest against gay marriage and against a perceived Melanie Phillipsite prospect of the "Islamisation" of France and Europe.
Marine Le Pen responded by expressing her respect for Venner, describing his "political act" that was an attempt "to wake up the people of France". She added that "it is in life and hope that France will renew and save itself."
Emmanuel Macron is right to associate Marine Le Pen with the line that comes down from the OAS. That line also extends backwards to Action Française and the whole monarchist reaction to the French revolution. As we know, De Gaulle rode back to power in 1958 promising to keep Algeria French and then stabbed his comrades in the back, leading them to try to kill him and to start a civil war in France.
In Japan, Yukio Mishima failed.
But in France, who said the OAS wouldn't get the last laugh?
There's a question as to who looks more "German", Macron or Le Pen? Each is trying to pin that character on the other.
Meanwhile in the US, Trump's ear-whisperer Stephen Bannon praises Jean Raspail's vile race-war novel "The Camp of the Saints" to the skies.
In other news. Emmanuel Macron's wife Brigitte is a teacher at a Jesuit school. Did she get her first marriage annulled or what?
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
The SNP shouldn't be excessively concerned about losing a handful of MPs. Those MPs might be. I doubt whether the party will be.
What's likely to be of greater concern to them is that Peak SNP appears to have passed. If the Unionist parties put together win a majority of Scottish votes cast at the General Election (and manage to pull down a few SNP seats as well,) then it is quite possible that an emboldened Theresa May will tell the Scottish Government to go away and secure a majority at Holyrood for parties standing on an independence manifesto in 2021, before agreeing to a second referendum.
If Brexit goes horribly wrong then it is possible that they might succeed, but even under those circumstances the odds wouldn't be entirely in the SNP's favour. They will have been the governing party in Scotland for 14 years by that point. People tend always to get fed up of sitting governments in the end, and the SNP administration's performance has, in any event, been less than stellar. They are already a minority, and were reliant on Green votes to get a motion through the Scottish Parliament requesting a second referendum; clearly if SNP + Green fell so much as a single seat short of a majority next time then that would no longer be possible, and independence would be put on ice until 2025 at the earliest.
When your party and its membership view everything through the prism of independence, and are driven by and subordinate all other interests to the achievement of that goal, this is not a pleasing prospect, to put it mildly.
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
After the mauling she received from Angus Robertson at PMQs on Wednesday on the subject of the Triple Lock (not the first time incidentally he has got the better of her), Theresa May would doubtless not be sorry to see the back of the SNP's Deputy Leader and MP for Moray, who according to the polls is right on the cusp of retaining/losing his seat.
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
Its going to be interesting to see how individual SNP MPs who feel their seats might be at risk now circumvent the SNP rule that bans them from publically criticise their 'party' (in effect the Leadership team). I get the feeling that some are now finally going to suddenly discover that they now want to be seen to be putting their constituents rather than their party first at Westminster.
fitalass, how much constituency work does an MP in Scotland have? Do the reserved matters have much impact on individuals? (Sorry about my ignorance!)
I rather doubt that 'the Coalition of Chaos scare' will have the same potency as 2015 simply because it is a risk which May has created by calling the election. Very different from Cameron in 2015 who had no choice but to go to the polls.
If anything it will have more, May's Tories are set to gain seats from the SNP which was not the case in 2015 as well as gaining even more from Labour although the LDs will regain a few of their losses as they are no longer perceived as the poodle of the Cameron's Tory Party
That is a non -sequitur in that the weaker the SNP become the less threat they pose!
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
Its going to be interesting to see how individual SNP MPs who feel their seats might be at risk now circumvent the SNP rule that bans them from publically criticise their 'party' (in effect the Leadership team). I get the feeling that some are now finally going to suddenly discover that they now want to be seen to be putting their constituents rather than their party first at Westminster.
But not Angus Robertson surely? Wonder if May will say anything about Fisheries.....
In a footnote of history, Woodward defected to Labour, moved seat and Dave Cameron got his old seat, as I recall.
There is a difference between opposing a law which prevented 'promotion' of homosexuality to schoolchildren and banning or restricting homosexuality for adults, Hague even sent messages of support to Gay Pride
The intention of Section 28 was to suppress gay activism under threat of the law. Most senior Tories now agree that it was a mistake.
The effect was to prevent teachers from honestly answering questions from students. The intention was to prevent any discussion in Schools of "alternative sexualities". If a student was raised by a same-sex couple, this was problematic, as we had to treat their parents as "a pretended family relationship".
Have you considered the possibility that that's exactly what it would be?
Today if someone says that being gay (and about 1.7% of people in Britain are gay or bisexual) isn't "normal", many act as if they are in a Bateman cartoon, opening their mouths in horror before exclaiming "Did you hear what that terrible homophobe just said?" ISTR there was an MP who got into trouble for saying most parents want to have grandchildren. Well being gay isn't normal. Normal means what is the norm.
I'm left wing but section 28 was one of the things the Tories got right. Opposing devolution was another. Other than that, they're the enemy. Lol.
What business is it of schoolteachers what kind of relationships those who raise children are in anyway? It's always been the case that many schoolteachers are as biased as hell against many children's families, thinking they probably eat their dinner on the sofa or their mothers are right slags, etc., often because of where the children live or what they know of the parents' occupations.
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
The SNP shouldn't be excessively concerned about losing a handful of MPs. Those MPs might be. I doubt whether the party will be.
What's likely to be of greater concern to them is that Peak SNP appears to have passed. If the Unionist parties put together win a majority of Scottish votes cast at the General Election (and manage to pull down a few SNP seats as well,) then it is quite possible that an emboldened Theresa May will tell the Scottish Government to go away and secure a majority at Holyrood for parties standing on an independence manifesto in 2021, before agreeing to a second referendum.
If Brexit goes horribly wrong then it is possible that they might succeed, but even under those circumstances the odds wouldn't be entirely in the SNP's favour. They will have been the governing party in Scotland for 14 years by that point. People tend always to get fed up of sitting governments in the end, and the SNP administration's performance has, in any event, been less than stellar. They are already a minority, and were reliant on Green votes to get a motion through the Scottish Parliament requesting a second referendum; clearly if SNP + Green fell so much as a single seat short of a majority next time then that would no longer be possible, and independence would be put on ice until 2025 at the earliest.
When your party and its membership view everything through the prism of independence, and are driven by and subordinate all other interests to the achievement of that goal, this is not a pleasing prospect, to put it mildly.
Add in the 58 point drop in Sturgeon's net "doing well" rating and we live in interesting times....
I rather doubt that 'the Coalition of Chaos scare' will have the same potency as 2015 simply because it is a risk which May has created by calling the election. Very different from Cameron in 2015 who had no choice but to go to the polls.
If anything it will have more, May's Tories are set to gain seats from the SNP which was not the case in 2015 as well as gaining even more from Labour although the LDs will regain a few of their losses as they are no longer perceived as the poodle of the Cameron's Tory Party
That is a non -sequitur in that the weaker the SNP become the less threat they pose!
The fact the SNP are falling back though is a sign of Scots getting fed up with their relentless push for independence and use of a block of MPs at Westminster to push that agenda
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
Its going to be interesting to see how individual SNP MPs who feel their seats might be at risk now circumvent the SNP rule that bans them from publically criticise their 'party' (in effect the Leadership team). I get the feeling that some are now finally going to suddenly discover that they now want to be seen to be putting their constituents rather than their party first at Westminster.
fitalass, how much constituency work does an MP in Scotland have? Do the reserved matters have much impact on individuals? (Sorry about my ignorance!)
Good evening Anne, hope you are well? I suspect that they still have a lot of constituency work, a good example would be welfare issues. But in some areas it might be the budget, defence issues or Foreign affairs. The SNP Government have delayed taking on new powers in this area until what was going to be the end of the this Parliament under the FTPA. In another breathtaking piece of hypocrisy, the SNP have delayed taking on the powers to mitigate some of the very issues they are most strongly attacking and criticising the Westminster Government for implementing like the rape clause. Its such a transparently cynical move, they are not prepared to take the tough decisions that might mean having to raise taxes even further in Scotland, and prefer to just push grudge and grievance politics by blaming Westminster.
Add in the 58 point drop in Sturgeon's net "doing well" rating and we live in interesting times....
The big picture is that May now 'owns' the union. It's fate depends on her fate.
Could it be she's doing well partly because for the first time in a generation (real one, not SNP one) a Westminster politician is making the case for it not just chucking more sweeties at whinging SNP MPs?
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
Its going to be interesting to see how individual SNP MPs who feel their seats might be at risk now circumvent the SNP rule that bans them from publically criticise their 'party' (in effect the Leadership team). I get the feeling that some are now finally going to suddenly discover that they now want to be seen to be putting their constituents rather than their party first at Westminster.
fitalass, how much constituency work does an MP in Scotland have? Do the reserved matters have much impact on individuals? (Sorry about my ignorance!)
, they are not prepared to take the tough decisions that might mean having to raise taxes even further in Scotland, and prefer to just push grudge and grievance politics by blaming Westminster.
if they are not prepared to take even modestly tricky decisions like that, what chance they would grapple with the titanic decisions independence would confront them with?
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
Its going to be interesting to see how individual SNP MPs who feel their seats might be at risk now circumvent the SNP rule that bans them from publically criticise their 'party' (in effect the Leadership team). I get the feeling that some are now finally going to suddenly discover that they now want to be seen to be putting their constituents rather than their party first at Westminster.
fitalass, how much constituency work does an MP in Scotland have? Do the reserved matters have much impact on individuals? (Sorry about my ignorance!)
Good evening Anne, hope you are well? I suspect that they still have a lot of constituency work, a good example would be welfare issues. But in some areas it might be the budget, defence issues or Foreign affairs. The SNP Government have delayed taking on new powers in this area until what was going to be the end of the this Parliament under the FTPA. In another breathtaking piece of hypocrisy, the SNP have delayed taking on the powers to mitigate some of the very issues they are most strongly attacking and criticising the Westminster Government for implementing like the rape clause. Its such a transparently cynical move, they are not prepared to take the tough decisions that might mean having to raise taxes even further in Scotland, and prefer to just push grudge and grievance politics by blaming Westminster.
Reply to Cyan blockquote arrrgh It is the business of teachers to treat their students equally, fairly and honestly. If a students parents are lesbians, they are lesbians. It is no business of the State to tell me that I have to treat their family as "pretended." What's wrong with eating your tea on the settee anyway? Many teachers do. And many teachers have interesting sex lives. Section 28 was a sign of a Government trying to control a society which had moved on.
Back the Tories with Ladbrokes at 7/4 staking 44.44% of total wager (e.g. £16.00)
Back Labour with Betfair Sportsbook at 6/5 staking 55.56% of total wager (e.g. £20.00)
Make a guaranteed profit of 22.2% (e.g. £8.00) on your total stake (e.g. £36.00) in under 6 weeks, irrespective of which of the two major parties wins ..... beats working for a living!
Have you considered the possibility that that's exactly what it would be?
Today if someone says that being gay (and about 1.7% of people in Britain are gay or bisexual) isn't "normal", many act as if they are in a Bateman cartoon, opening their mouths in horror before exclaiming "Did you hear what that terrible homophobe just said?" ISTR there was an MP who got into trouble for saying most parents want to have grandchildren. Well being gay isn't normal. Normal means what is the norm.
I'm left wing but section 28 was one of the things the Tories got right. Opposing devolution was another. Other than that, they're the enemy. Lol.
What business is it of schoolteachers what kind of relationships those who raise children are in anyway? It's always been the case that many schoolteachers are as biased as hell against many children's families, thinking they probably eat their dinner on the sofa or their mothers are right slags, etc., often because of where the children live or what they know of the parents' occupations.
That's it though. "Normal" isn't about percentages. If 1.7% of people were ginger, would you say that being ginger isn't "normal"?
There's quite a difference between being "normal", as in being within societally acceptable norms, and being rare. Being among 1.7% of the population who is gay makes you rare, not abnormal.
Have you considered the possibility that that's exactly what it would be?
Today if someone says that being gay (and about 1.7% of people in Britain are gay or bisexual) isn't "normal", many act as if they are in a Bateman cartoon, opening their mouths in horror before exclaiming "Did you hear what that terrible homophobe just said?" ISTR there was an MP who got into trouble for saying most parents want to have grandchildren. Well being gay isn't normal. Normal means what is the norm.
I'm left wing but section 28 was one of the things the Tories got right. Opposing devolution was another. Other than that, they're the enemy. Lol.
What business is it of schoolteachers what kind of relationships those who raise children are in anyway? It's always been the case that many schoolteachers are as biased as hell against many children's families, thinking they probably eat their dinner on the sofa or their mothers are right slags, etc., often because of where the children live or what they know of the parents' occupations.
That's it though. "Normal" isn't about percentages. If 1.7% of people were ginger, would you say that being ginger isn't "normal"?
There's quite a difference between being "normal", as in being within societally acceptable norms, and being rare. Being among 1.7% of the population who is gay makes you rare, not abnormal.
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
The SNP shouldn't be excessively concerned about losing a handful of MPs. Those MPs might be. I doubt whether the party will be.
What's likely to be of greater concern to them is that Peak SNP appears to have passed. If the Unionist parties put together win a majority of Scottish votes cast at the General Election (and manage to pull down a few SNP seats as well,) then it is quite possible that an emboldened Theresa May will tell the Scottish Government to go away and secure a majority at Holyrood for parties standing on an independence manifesto in 2021, before agreeing to a second referendum.
If Brexit goes horribly wrong then it is possible that they might succeed, but even under those circumstances the odds wouldn't be entirely in the SNP's favour. They will have been the governing party in Scotland for 14 years by that point. People tend always to get fed up of sitting governments in the end, and the SNP administration's performance has, in any event, been less than stellar. They are already a minority, and were reliant on Green votes to get a motion through the Scottish Parliament requesting a second referendum; clearly if SNP + Green fell so much as a single seat short of a majority next time then that would no longer be possible, and independence would be put on ice until 2025 at the earliest.
When your party and its membership view everything through the prism of independence, and are driven by and subordinate all other interests to the achievement of that goal, this is not a pleasing prospect, to put it mildly.
My guess is that we wont now see a new Indyref til 2025 at the earliest, for all the reasons you adduce. Peak SNP has passed.
But they will be back. And they will hope that the young Nats will have replaced the old Unionists by then. And they could be right. We shall see.
Devomax is the longer term solution but the SNP is fading for now as you say
Reply to Cyan blockquote arrrgh It is the business of teachers to treat their students equally, fairly and honestly. If a students parents are lesbians, they are lesbians. It is no business of the State to tell me that I have to treat their family as "pretended." What's wrong with eating your tea on the settee anyway? Many teachers do. And many teachers have interesting sex lives. Section 28 was a sign of a Government trying to control a society which had moved on.
What does any of that have to do with the question "What business is it of schoolteachers what kind of relationships those who raise children are in anyway?"
This is because Lib Dems are mostly the As and Bs of the world who think about things and then decide - rather than tribal people who vote that way automatically because their background means that's who they are.
Not judging between thoughtful and emotionally tribal though.
Reply to Cyan blockquote arrrgh It is the business of teachers to treat their students equally, fairly and honestly. If a students parents are lesbians, they are lesbians. It is no business of the State to tell me that I have to treat their family as "pretended." What's wrong with eating your tea on the settee anyway? Many teachers do. And many teachers have interesting sex lives. Section 28 was a sign of a Government trying to control a society which had moved on.
What does any of that have to do with the question "What business is it of schoolteachers what kind of relationships those who raise children are in anyway?"
Sorry, you've lost me there. "What business is it of schoolteachers what kind of relationships those who raise children are in anyway?" Exactly my point. Section 28 made it my business, as it became a (potentially, at least) a sackable offence.
The Prime Minister will join Ruth Davidson to stand against a second independence referendum and argue that the fortunes of Scotland and the UK are bound together. “My message to the people of Scotland today is clear: if you vote for me it will strengthen my hand in the Brexit negotiations,” Mrs May is expected to say. “It will strengthen the Union, strengthen the economy and together the UK and Scotland will flourish. Because when Scotland is flourishing, the rest of the United Kingdom is flourishing too.”
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
Its going to be interesting to see how individual SNP MPs who feel their seats might be at risk now circumvent the SNP rule that bans them from publically criticise their 'party' (in effect the Leadership team). I get the feeling that some are now finally going to suddenly discover that they now want to be seen to be putting their constituents rather than their party first at Westminster.
fitalass, how much constituency work does an MP in Scotland have? Do the reserved matters have much impact on individuals? (Sorry about my ignorance!)
, they are not prepared to take the tough decisions that might mean having to raise taxes even further in Scotland, and prefer to just push grudge and grievance politics by blaming Westminster.
if they are not prepared to take even modestly tricky decisions like that, what chance they would grapple with the titanic decisions independence would confront them with?
Of all the decisions that this SNP Government have made, this is the one single decision where both the Scottish and UK media should have held their feet to the fire. Especially AFTER they held that Independence Referendum in 2014, and then voted through their intention to hold another one before they were prepared to take on the responsibility for these tough and possible unpopular powers. If they cannot even get their act together at Holyrood over the next three years to take on these new devolved welfare powers, they are not in any position to ask the Scots to take a leap into the dark with Independence with the timeline they offer last time.
UK political journalists just don't pick this up enough when they interview the SNP team at Westminster, we have some honourable exceptions like Andrew Neil and handful of others. Far too often recently, SNP MPs have been given airtime on TV or the newspapers to push their grudge and grievance politics without being pushed on their own Holyrood Government's refusal to take on the responsibility to take these tough decisions themselves. This problem was starkly highlighted last night on BBC QuestionTime yet again, but then David Dimbleby even managed to get the appalling Named Person policy wrong when trying to describe it to the wider UK audicence on a Scottish episode of the programme. It was left to another guest who also doesn't live in Scotland, but who did their homework on the issue, to then step in to correct him and explain the wider intrusion into family life here as a result of it.
I'm just at the end of a meal in a Michelin starred restaurant in France. And it's been terrific.
Reports of the death of French cuisine (from SeanT) have been exaggerated.
It is important to remember that Sean T is a professional writer of fiction. I have long suspected that his postings on PB.com about his exotic lifestyle are a similar work of fiction, and that in reality he lives in a bedsit in Neasden, existing on a diet of pot noodle and Subways.
You have a way of verifying that.
I am in (allegedly) a posh hotel in the Loire Valley, the Cheteau de Norieux. Very nice Michelin star restaurant - with a splendid Italian chef who said his favourite city in the world is London. Good man.
Anyway after this dinner, where I discussed everything from Brexit to sex with my French acquaintance, I walked out, through the lounge, and saw a distinctive looking Englishman sitting on the sofa with a quite MILFy woman. I thought - I recognise him.
So being a bit drunk I walked up and said hello and said Aren't you a politician. And he rose - quite an imposing man - gave me the hardest handshake in history, and said Yes I'm Stephen Dorrell I was a minister in John Major's government. I smiled warmly and said I was a journo from the Times, he said he'd been discussing Brexit like us, and then.... I left it at that. I was SO tempted to have a massive row with THE arch-Remoaner.
But I resisted. Admire my restraint. It would have been deliciously entertaining,
Of course I could be lying and I've invented all this from a bungalow in Solihull. Hmmm.
Stephen Dorrell celebrated his 65th Birthday last month and has been married to Penelope (nee Taylor) for 37 years.
EU Says It's Already Europe 1, Britain 0 as Brexit Reality Dawns
Yes, losing their second biggest economy is a great triumph isn't it, plus of course there are other European nations as well as the UK who are also not in the EU
I'm just at the end of a meal in a Michelin starred restaurant in France. And it's been terrific.
Reports of the death of French cuisine (from SeanT) have been exaggerated.
It is important to remember that Sean T is a professional writer of fiction. I have long suspected that his postings on PB.com about his exotic lifestyle are a similar work of fiction, and that in reality he lives in a bedsit in Neasden, existing on a diet of pot noodle and Subways.
You have a way of verifying that.
I am in (allegedly) a posh hotel in the Loire Valley, the Cheteau de Norieux. Very nice Michelin star restaurant - with a splendid Italian chef who said his favourite city in the world is London. Good man.
Anyway after this dinner, where I discussed everything from Brexit to sex with my French acquaintance, I walked out, through the lounge, and saw a distinctive looking Englishman sitting on the sofa with a quite MILFy woman. I thought - I recognise him.
So being a bit drunk I walked up and said hello and said Aren't you a politician. And he rose - quite an imposing man - gave me the hardest handshake in history, and said Yes I'm Stephen Dorrell I was a minister in John Major's government. I smiled warmly and said I was a journo from the Times, he said he'd been discussing Brexit like us, and then.... I left it at that. I was SO tempted to have a massive row with THE arch-Remoaner.
But I resisted. Admire my restraint. It would have been deliciously entertaining,
Of course I could be lying and I've invented all this from a bungalow in Solihull. Hmmm.
Stephen Dorrell celebrated his 65th Birthday last month and has been married to Penelope (nee Taylor) for 37 years.
Have you considered the possibility that that's exactly what it would be?
Today if someone says that being gay (and about 1.7% of people in Britain are gay or bisexual) isn't "normal", many act as if they are in a Bateman cartoon, opening their mouths in horror before exclaiming "Did you hear what that terrible homophobe just said?" ISTR there was an MP who got into trouble for saying most parents want to have grandchildren. Well being gay isn't normal. Normal means what is the norm.
I'm left wing but section 28 was one of the things the Tories got right. Opposing devolution was another. Other than that, they're the enemy. Lol.
What business is it of schoolteachers what kind of relationships those who raise children are in anyway? It's always been the case that many schoolteachers are as biased as hell against many children's families, thinking they probably eat their dinner on the sofa or their mothers are right slags, etc., often because of where the children live or what they know of the parents' occupations.
That's it though. "Normal" isn't about percentages. If 1.7% of people were ginger, would you say that being ginger isn't "normal"?
Yes.
Good grief. Is it normal to be a Man Utd supporter? Is it normal for a man to have feelings for another man? Is it normal to be British? Is it normal to vote for Brexit? Is it normal to be a man? Is it normal for Norfolk?
EU Says It's Already Europe 1, Britain 0 as Brexit Reality Dawns
The author had an article earlier claiming the EU was going to 'demand UK permanent residency for EU residents after 5 years' - that's current UK law......
EU Says It's Already Europe 1, Britain 0 as Brexit Reality Dawns
Yes, losing their second biggest economy is a great triumph isn't it, plus of course there are other European nations as well as the UK who are also not in the EU
Bit of 'whistling to keep their spirits up' strikes me.....
EU Says It's Already Europe 1, Britain 0 as Brexit Reality Dawns
Yes, losing their second biggest economy is a great triumph isn't it, plus of course there are other European nations as well as the UK who are also not in the EU
Bit of 'whistling to keep their spirits up' strikes me.....
I am certain that Theresa May will continue, at every moment, to ask for the vote for her, looking down the camera lens, pointing out that any other vote may end up with Prime Minister Corbyn. The visual effect of Prime Minister Corbyn will see huge numbers of votes for her.
Nobody in their right mind sees a prospect of PM Corbyn. The prospect of a one party state is much more scarily real.
Well then, one of the opposition parties should actually offer a program that people would vote for.
I will risk a large conservative majority, literally ANYTHING other than Corbyn.
Just for a moment imagine Labour, the Greens and the SNP in charge.
The stuff of nightmares - The Lib Dems might be able to introduce some sanity - but I'm not prepared to bet on it.
My elderly mother is a remain voter who typically votes Conservative in General Elections. She now lives in St Albans. If she thinks there is a chance Corbyn could be PM, she will vote Tory to be safe. If it is apparent Corbyn can't win, she'll vote LibDem to oppose Anne Main. Seems a lot her friends take a similar line.
Anecdotally, from family, it seems that there are a lot of people in St Albans who don't warm to Anne Main. Any other Conservative MP would have a five figure majority, but they really have to work hard to get her re-elected. Odd.
The expenses scandal has an awful lot to do with that. She had the taxpayer pay for a flat in St Albans that she had her grown daughter live in. She also takes a robust line on immigration and other social issues which can be jarring for some.
In fairness she does now have a five figure majority, but that was due to Labour and the LibDems being evenly split last time - she got 46% of the vote. Apparently it is in the LibDems top target seats this time however.
Theresa May is heading for Aberdeen and Moray tomorrow to plant her tanks on the SNP lawn.
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
Its going to be interesting to see how individual SNP MPs who feel their seats might be at risk now circumvent the SNP rule that bans them from publically criticise their 'party' (in effect the
fitalass, how much constituency work does an MP in Scotland have? Do the reserved matters have much impact on individuals? (Sorry about my ignorance!)
To answer your second question, yes, the devolved domestic matters at Holyrood have a huge impact on the lives of Scots. The NHS, local council funding, Education and Policing to name just a few. And despite the childish claims by our SNP Government that everything they are in charge of is better run than the same services in the rest of the UK is quite simple mince as we say up here! Again, we often see a lot of focus on how Labour are running the NHS into the ground in Wales, but very little about how the SNP's refusal to reform the NHS up here is damaging the direct patient care up here.
We are now the country of 'freebies', no transport tolls, free precriptions and hospital parking, but this comes at a price because it means less money for coal face or investment in the NHS, education or transport. We have a shortage of nurses, hospital doctors and GP's and a shortage of teachers which is now really impacting on our children's education. And the SNP's disasterous free tuition fees/loans system has rewarded the better off families while seeing college and Uni places dropping for Scots students, so less opportunities for many young Scots.
The SNP Government at Holyrood have spent the last decade trying to centralise control of local services up here, this has led to the Police and Fire Service losing their VAT exemption, so yet less money going to these vital front line services. I could go on, but its just too depressing. But if you are an SNP/Yes supporter, the goal of independence means that the SNP can do no wrong on the domestic front, the goal of independence transcends everything. If the SNP fan base are to believed, we apparently live in a joint state of utopia under the largesse of the SNP at Holyrood, but where any difficult decision or cut is the fault of the evil Tory Government at Westminster under the same Barnett Formula.
Seems reasonable to me. If we are creating a hard border with the EU, then we should have a hard border on our own shores, unless there is mutual benefit to it being in France.
Despite the absence of polls over the past 24 hours, there has been a discernible drift away from Labour towards the Tories over the past 24 hours especially in the spread markets, where Spreadex go 158.5 seats for Labour and 392 for the Tories, compared with Sporting's 163 for Labour and 389 for the Tories. All mid-spread prices at 2.45a.m. Saturday.
I am certain that Theresa May will continue, at every moment, to ask for the vote for her, looking down the camera lens, pointing out that any other vote may end up with Prime Minister Corbyn. The visual effect of Prime Minister Corbyn will see huge numbers of votes for her.
Nobody in their right mind sees a prospect of PM Corbyn. The prospect of a one party state is much more scarily real.
Well then, one of the opposition parties should actually offer a program that people would vote for.
I will risk a large conservative majority, literally ANYTHING other than Corbyn.
Just for a moment imagine Labour, the Greens and the SNP in charge.
The stuff of nightmares - The Lib Dems might be able to introduce some sanity - but I'm not prepared to bet on it.
My elderly mother is a remain voter who typically votes Conservative in General Elections. She now lives in St Albans. If she thinks there is a chance Corbyn could be PM, she will vote Tory to be safe. If it is apparent Corbyn can't win, she'll vote LibDem to oppose Anne Main. Seems a lot her friends take a similar line.
Anecdotally, from family, it seems that there are a lot of people in St Albans who don't warm to Anne Main. Any other Conservative MP would have a five figure majority, but they really have to work hard to get her re-elected. Odd.
The expenses scandal has an awful lot to do with that. She had the taxpayer pay for a flat in St Albans that she had her grown daughter live in. She also takes a robust line on immigration and other social issues which can be jarring for some.
In fairness she does now have a five figure majority, but that was due to Labour and the LibDems being evenly split last time - she got 46% of the vote. Apparently it is in the LibDems top target seats this time however.
Really? Betfair Sportsbook have the Tories priced up at 1/9 to hold St. Albans, while the LibDems are on offer at 9/2.
Seems reasonable to me. If we are creating a hard border with the EU, then we should have a hard border on our own shores, unless there is mutual benefit to it being in France.
It will bugger up Eurostar - passport checks in Kent and illegals put on the next train back to France.....
So SeanT has shaken hands with the chair of the European Movement UK?
Indeed. And In a French chateau. It's like Yalta.
Relatedly, the FT is reporting that the French and Germans believe the UK has no claim on any EU assets (for which we paid 15-20% of the cost) they don't give any reason for this. Just the Europeans being jerks. Mean while they are trying to dismember the UK and make us pay seventy billion plus accepting EU law in the UK for EU citizens forever and allowing all their families to enter the UK forever. Plus ongoing singing of the Marseillaise at all England football games. Plus forward payments to be in the Single Market. Plus they demand access to our fishing waters, still. Plus we must still follow all their rules on the environment and we can't compete on taxes.
We all accept divorce will be painful. In what divorce, however, does one side get to ask for all the money it wants, and yet denies there are any assets to be shared, and the other partner must go on the game for the next 16 years, to pay for the other partner's cider habit?
FUCK THESE EUROPEAN ASSHOLES
Leave. Hard Leave. Diamond Brexit. Not a fucking penny to these wheedling anti-democratic jerks. Deport the Europeans who are here. Put them on flimsy rafts. Eject them from Dover. Enough.
Enjoy our late night Cognac with Stephen and Penelope did we then Sean?
Comments
In this election I am voting Conservative (In Bishop Auckland, having voted UKIP in 2015) - however my aim on this site is NOT to promote Conservative politics (too much), but to try and contribute to the data analysis.
The UKIP vote was 8280 - 21.5%, taking them down to 5000 represents a 40% drop - and the current polls suggest that 13% in 2015 is dropping to 7-8% so it seems reasonable. The question is - is all that vote going to the Tories. If it did then Labour would still win
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/547508.stm
In a footnote of history, Woodward defected to Labour, moved seat and Dave Cameron got his old seat, as I recall.
Awkward wording from the BBC. I don't think there was ever the intention to promote it?
Word is the SNP are getting worried. The first time the SNP and Nicola have faced a real fight in years
Does this intervention help Marine Le Pen's campaign or harm it?
For background, consider that Dominique Venner, a traditionalist Catholic historian and former figure in the OAS, shot himself dead in front of the high altar in Notre Dame cathedral four years ago, days after the law introducing gay marriage came into effect. Venner's suicide was in protest against gay marriage and against a perceived Melanie Phillipsite prospect of the "Islamisation" of France and Europe.
Marine Le Pen responded by expressing her respect for Venner, describing his "political act" that was an attempt "to wake up the people of France". She added that "it is in life and hope that France will renew and save itself."
Emmanuel Macron is right to associate Marine Le Pen with the line that comes down from the OAS. That line also extends backwards to Action Française and the whole monarchist reaction to the French revolution. As we know, De Gaulle rode back to power in 1958 promising to keep Algeria French and then stabbed his comrades in the back, leading them to try to kill him and to start a civil war in France.
In Japan, Yukio Mishima failed.
But in France, who said the OAS wouldn't get the last laugh?
There's a question as to who looks more "German", Macron or Le Pen? Each is trying to pin that character on the other.
Meanwhile in the US, Trump's ear-whisperer Stephen Bannon praises Jean Raspail's vile race-war novel "The Camp of the Saints" to the skies.
In other news. Emmanuel Macron's wife Brigitte is a teacher at a Jesuit school. Did she get her first marriage annulled or what?
Chris Curtis
Our analysis at YouGov suggests an unprecedented degree of ‘voter churn’. But very few are deserting the Conservatives"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/28/voters-switching-parties-tory-win
for fear of finding something worse."
https://www.poemhunter.com/poem/jim/
What's likely to be of greater concern to them is that Peak SNP appears to have passed. If the Unionist parties put together win a majority of Scottish votes cast at the General Election (and manage to pull down a few SNP seats as well,) then it is quite possible that an emboldened Theresa May will tell the Scottish Government to go away and secure a majority at Holyrood for parties standing on an independence manifesto in 2021, before agreeing to a second referendum.
If Brexit goes horribly wrong then it is possible that they might succeed, but even under those circumstances the odds wouldn't be entirely in the SNP's favour. They will have been the governing party in Scotland for 14 years by that point. People tend always to get fed up of sitting governments in the end, and the SNP administration's performance has, in any event, been less than stellar. They are already a minority, and were reliant on Green votes to get a motion through the Scottish Parliament requesting a second referendum; clearly if SNP + Green fell so much as a single seat short of a majority next time then that would no longer be possible, and independence would be put on ice until 2025 at the earliest.
When your party and its membership view everything through the prism of independence, and are driven by and subordinate all other interests to the achievement of that goal, this is not a pleasing prospect, to put it mildly.
Today if someone says that being gay (and about 1.7% of people in Britain are gay or bisexual) isn't "normal", many act as if they are in a Bateman cartoon, opening their mouths in horror before exclaiming "Did you hear what that terrible homophobe just said?" ISTR there was an MP who got into trouble for saying most parents want to have grandchildren. Well being gay isn't normal. Normal means what is the norm.
I'm left wing but section 28 was one of the things the Tories got right. Opposing devolution was another. Other than that, they're the enemy. Lol.
What business is it of schoolteachers what kind of relationships those who raise children are in anyway? It's always been the case that many schoolteachers are as biased as hell against many children's families, thinking they probably eat their dinner on the sofa or their mothers are right slags, etc., often because of where the children live or what they know of the parents' occupations.
I'm fine, I hope you are too.
It is the business of teachers to treat their students equally, fairly and honestly. If a students parents are lesbians, they are lesbians. It is no business of the State to tell me that I have to treat their family as "pretended." What's wrong with eating your tea on the settee anyway? Many teachers do. And many teachers have interesting sex lives. Section 28 was a sign of a Government trying to control a society which had moved on.
EXC in Saturday's Scottish Daily Mail: Theresa May says she's not going to change her mind about saying no to #indyref2.
https://twitter.com/charliejoseph24/status/858053272803966977
Back the Tories with Ladbrokes at 7/4 staking 44.44% of total wager (e.g. £16.00)
Back Labour with Betfair Sportsbook at 6/5 staking 55.56% of total wager (e.g. £20.00)
Make a guaranteed profit of 22.2% (e.g. £8.00) on your total stake (e.g. £36.00) in under 6 weeks, irrespective of which of the two major parties wins ..... beats working for a living!
DYOR.
There's quite a difference between being "normal", as in being within societally acceptable norms, and being rare. Being among 1.7% of the population who is gay makes you rare, not abnormal.
This is because Lib Dems are mostly the As and Bs of the world who think about things and then decide - rather than tribal people who vote that way automatically because their background means that's who they are.
Not judging between thoughtful and emotionally tribal though.
Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/may-brings-fight-to-scotland-as-polls-show-tory-revival-1-4432726
UK political journalists just don't pick this up enough when they interview the SNP team at Westminster, we have some honourable exceptions like Andrew Neil and handful of others. Far too often recently, SNP MPs have been given airtime on TV or the newspapers to push their grudge and grievance politics without being pushed on their own Holyrood Government's refusal to take on the responsibility to take these tough decisions themselves. This problem was starkly highlighted last night on BBC QuestionTime yet again, but then David Dimbleby even managed to get the appalling Named Person policy wrong when trying to describe it to the wider UK audicence on a Scottish episode of the programme. It was left to another guest who also doesn't live in Scotland, but who did their homework on the issue, to then step in to correct him and explain the wider intrusion into family life here as a result of it.
EU Says It's Already Europe 1, Britain 0 as Brexit Reality Dawns
"more people currently tell us they are don’t know who they will support than say they plan to vote Labour."
Whilst the Bloomberg article you quote suggests concessions have already been made, this one suggests otherwise:
http://www.politico.eu/article/britains-brexit-denial/
So we don't know much really.
http://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-politics-conservative-stephen-dorrell-wedding-day-london-106280468.html
Is there any way they can (legally) lock Corbyn in box for a month or two?
In fairness she does now have a five figure majority, but that was due to Labour and the LibDems being evenly split last time - she got 46% of the vote. Apparently it is in the LibDems top target seats this time however.
To answer your second question, yes, the devolved domestic matters at Holyrood have a huge impact on the lives of Scots. The NHS, local council funding, Education and Policing to name just a few. And despite the childish claims by our SNP Government that everything they are in charge of is better run than the same services in the rest of the UK is quite simple mince as we say up here! Again, we often see a lot of focus on how Labour are running the NHS into the ground in Wales, but very little about how the SNP's refusal to reform the NHS up here is damaging the direct patient care up here.
We are now the country of 'freebies', no transport tolls, free precriptions and hospital parking, but this comes at a price because it means less money for coal face or investment in the NHS, education or transport. We have a shortage of nurses, hospital doctors and GP's and a shortage of teachers which is now really impacting on our children's education. And the SNP's disasterous free tuition fees/loans system has rewarded the better off families while seeing college and Uni places dropping for Scots students, so less opportunities for many young Scots.
The SNP Government at Holyrood have spent the last decade trying to centralise control of local services up here, this has led to the Police and Fire Service losing their VAT exemption, so yet less money going to these vital front line services. I could go on, but its just too depressing. But if you are an SNP/Yes supporter, the goal of independence means that the SNP can do no wrong on the domestic front, the goal of independence transcends everything. If the SNP fan base are to believed, we apparently live in a joint state of utopia under the largesse of the SNP at Holyrood, but where any difficult decision or cut is the fault of the evil Tory Government at Westminster under the same Barnett Formula.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/emmanuel-macron-wants-renegotiate-calais-border-treaty/
For everyone else: NEW THREAD