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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Tory lead might be even larger than the polling implies
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i think i got away with it
oh hang on.
fourth like TSE in the pb fantasy footie...like liverpool will he cling to CL spots?
Edit isn't crap, is Pretty Marvellous
Playing all your home matches at Wembley next season. Courageous.
The soft party affiliation is just what is needed for anti-Tory tactical voting.
Also worth noting that such soft affiliation didn't harm Macron last week.
For example, if all 6000 Labour supporters vote Liberal Democrats in Kingston & Surbiton, is that good or bad for the Tories ?
It could be that Labour voters are more amenable for tactical voting where previously they would not have considered it.
It's all too much.
The problem is I fear this article is right. Those voting Tory are doing is for a variety of reasons. Those voting Labour are almost invariably doing so out of habit, reluctantly, with trepidation, barring maybe the 5% of the population who believe Corbyn is a decent human being (and half of them will vote Green anyway).
This could be the worst result for democracy imaginable.
I would have thought the PB LibDems would have been emptying their bank balances to get on those odds.
Pulpstar certainly did.
Asking for a friend ....
well ok, it's for me.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/28/army-veteran-warns-off-labour-canvassers-leader-supports-ira/
Raikkonnen, who this weekend for once seems to be pretty well on Vettel's pace, must be decent value at 17 (around where I backed him this afternoon... not sure what he is now).
https://capx.co/only-a-ballot-box-massacre-can-save-labour/
https://twitter.com/SELabour/status/857999735961137152
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/857868402878230528
Thus, when both sides do come back to the table, it will be a negotiation about mutual interests and achieving a win-win, rather than imposing a punitive outcome on us.
That appears somewhat long. Hmm.
Edited extra bit: and evens for a podium.
Also, to be even more pedantic, it is worth pointing out the generally accepted figure for the numbers murdered is 6 million, not 7, and that around a third were gassed - a larger number were shot, and a very surprisingly high number, probably around a million, were lynched by locals who had no connection at all to politics.
Fair play to that young girl who facebook'd his anti-gay comments.
Who said you can't change anything in politics these days?
SeanT said:
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You're wrong. As Hitler said, you only have to promise your people blood, sweat and tears, and they will follow you anywhere.
If the EU follows through on their rhetoric of trying to hurt us, and dismember the UK, we will unite (most of us) and tell them to Do One. Fuck them. They will be seen as an enemy, we don't yield meekly to enemies. We fight.
I sincerely hope this doesn't happen. But I have no doubts that it could.
LOL, all the millionaires will be lining up for their Dad's Army uniforms, Sean will be an old Pike or more likely Corporal Jones
It seems to have been written for an age group older than YouGov suggested it was suitable and it led to some slightly uncomfortable questions from one of our little'uns afterwards.
Maybe ours are slightly more innocent than YouGov imagines they are at that age?
Hmmm it's made us question the wisdom of taking part in the Children's YGs in future.
Now that is how times change!!!
I'm watching it live now
On the 29 March 2019, the treaties that govern almost everything we do will lapse, unless we agree replacements. It won't just be a question of whether we have to pay duties on goods. There won't be the systems or staff in place to process them. There will be issues about aircraft certification, nuclear waste processing, financial settlements and much more. The chaos won't start at that date but will project forward as people suspect what's in store.
Questions. Do you think all that is worth it, just to avoid a payment of €50 billion? Do you think Mrs May will think it's worth it, given the buck stops with her?
Will be for the FA Cup too... mind you that's also so Arsene might stay.
It's not like another MP has just been raked over the coals for being -suspected-of-thinking-it-but-not-actually-saying-it or anything. *face palm*
Moronic bigotry aside, no one that stupid should be in public office on the taxpayers' dime.
Fake fans!
Spurs have a great side, a pleasure to watch through gritted teeth, but I cant ever want them to win anything. I am virtually a Chelsea fan!
I am voting Lib Dem but in a seat where they came 5th last time, (I put my cross to the Copnservative in 2015) but really have I a need to vote, the best the LD candidate can do is third, so is there a point. However if I was living in say North Cornwall there most certainly is and I would be highly motivated. Hence the result of this poll.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/tory-mp-stands-allegedly-telling-students-homosexuality-wrong/
I do wonder if his stroke affected him. Whatever, there's no party quite as ruthless as the Tories....
But as your scenario is pure (nightmarish) fantasy, I won't bother answering your question.
As displayed in the headline VI tables - i.e. discounting the DKs - the Tories hold on to anything up to the low 90s; Labour is often around the 60-65% mark; the Lib Dems can be down towards 55%; and Ukip are often at about 40% nowadays. The patterns of voter movement are also much of a muchness: significant fractions of the Labour and Lib Dem vote going to each other or to the Tories, and the lost Ukip voters migrating almost as a monolithic bloc into the blue column.
The notion that the Labour vote is soft as butter, the Lib Dem vote is soft as butter that's been left in an airing cupboard, and the Ukip vote has almost melted into a warm puddle, is thus entirely believable.
A couple of days ago, I went our for drinks with some friends in the junior end of the Diplomatic. Ended up negotiating Article 50 with a couple of them to uproarious success.... apparently some inhabitants minor European nations think that selling Calais & Boulogne to the UK, in return for 50 billion Euro is an awesome compromise.
Anyway, several of them were moaning about how the higher ups were living in a dream world - apparently, between their own prejudices on matters EU and blandishments from prominnets Europhiles, several embassies were reporting to their governments that T May would be frustrated in trying to do anything other than Brexit in name only, that a cross party coalition of EUrophiles would bring her down if she "tried anything", that all the constituent parts of the UK would declare independence etc etc. Oh, and all the polls were wrong and she couldn't win an election. One guy had been told to put his reports in the bin because they were counter to the proper narrative...
One of them, a bit classically minded, agreed with me when I said "Labienus".... He further predicted a bit of a smash diplomatically when leaders following that kind of briefing tried their hand at negotiating...
From evidence to date, it seems the former. If you're not on the right page as a diplomat, no matter how senior, you'll be shown the door.
I suspect fewer than half in both cases. Greens will dress it up as progressive alliance idea. UKIP as not standing against Brexiteers. In both cases true reason likely to be that they can't find enough candidates and don't have the funds to lose many deposits.
The senior diplomats are civil servants. They never get fired.
The EU needs to know two things are non-negotiable - Northern Ireland and Gibraltar.
Two things to note (and please correct me if I am reading the situation inaccurately, my knowledge of French politics is less than thorough-going, to put it mildly):
1. Le Pen is much closer to the Far Left platform in economic terms than Macron is, which should help her to win over a sizeable number of Melenchon supporters.
2. Many Far Leftists detested Hollande as a sell-out, and will therefore hate wet centrist Macron even more. Voting for Le Pen, as distinct from an establishment candidate, also represents a chance for change rather than more of the same.
Le Pen + Melenchon voters = 40% of the first round vote on their own (and add in Dupont-Aignan and the minor candidates, and the Eurosceptic vote must've been somewhere near 50%.) Factor in also the social conservative wing of the Fillon vote, and the possibility of differential turnout favouring Le Pen, and my reading is that Macron ought to win - but, perhaps, by rather less than the 60:40 margin the polls imply.
Only just over a week until we find out...
(PS Following the nasty bickering earlier today, let me make it clear that yes, I did vote Leave, but no, I'm not a Le Pen booster. It's not necessarily easy to place yourself in the shoes of people from a different culture and political system, but I'm pretty sure that if I were French I'd be holding my nose and voting for Macron.)
http://election-data.co.uk/local-elections-preview-part-i