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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We’ve moved sharply on from when class was the best pointer to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We’ve moved sharply on from when class was the best pointer to voting intention
This afternoon YouGov has published a series of charts to give us an idea about the electorate who will vote on June 8th.
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Or education is a confounder for age. A poll by education within the same age cohort would be informative.
***GEEKERY ALERT***
I've just finished work on my little project: a spreadsheet to examine the effect of Ukip defections in the Conservatives' key constituencies.
I ranked the Tories' 50 tightest defences and 150 best targets, by percentage swing needed to change hands, based on the results when they were last contested. I then looked at the effect purely of the migration of voters from Ukip to Con on these seats. I ranked them using the following descriptors:
Highly marginal: majority 0-5%, swing of 2.5% or less needed to change hands
Marginal: majority 5.01-10%, swing required up to 5%
Safe: majority 10.01-20%, swing required up to 10%
Very safe: majority 20.01% and above, swing of over 10% required
As things currently stand, the first 26 Conservative defences listed rank as highly marginal, the remaining 24 as marginal.
The 150 Conservative targets are as follows:
Highly marginal: 18 Labour, 3 Lib Dem, 1 SNP
Marginal: 23 Labour, 1 Lib Dem, 1 Ukip
Safe: 43 Labour, 6 SNP, 2 Lib Dem, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Green
Very safe: 44 Labour, 5 SNP
For targets, the ranking reflects the position of the defeated Conservative candidate relative to the incumbent. In many of the safer seats, there are one or two other parties closer to the incumbent than the Tories.
If I assign one third of the Ukip vote to the Conservatives, then 21 of their key defences become safe, 21 marginal and only 8 highly marginal. Of their targets, they gain 18 seats from Labour, 2 from the LibDems, 1 from the SNP and 1 from Ukip. Of the uncaptured targets, 30 rank as highly marginal, 19 as marginal, 51 as safe and 28 as very safe.
If I assign one half of the Ukip vote to the Conservatives, then 1 of their key defences becomes very safe, 29 safe, 18 marginal and only 2 highly marginal. Of their targets, they gain 31 seats from Labour, 3 from the LibDems, 1 from the SNP and 1 from Ukip. Of the uncaptured targets, 26 rank as highly marginal, 22 as marginal, 53 as safe and 13 as very safe.
If I assign two thirds of the Ukip vote to the Conservatives, then 2 of their key defences become very safe, 34 safe, 13 marginal and only 1 highly marginal. Of their targets, they gain 47 seats from Labour, 3 from the LibDems, 1 from the SNP and 1 from Ukip. Of the uncaptured targets, 20 rank as highly marginal, 25 as marginal, 41 as safe and 12 as very safe.
These lists are intended simply to demonstrate the effect of the consolidation of the right-leaning vote under the Conservative banner alone. They take no account of the net movement of votes between any of the other parties.
***GEEKERY ENDS***
"Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk
Lender’s head of regulation says 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate"
https://www.ft.com/content/b950b28c-2a9e-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c
It's this woman
https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/
Lab/Con crossover age: 34
Median age of UK population: just over 40
Median age of UK electorate (i.e. discounting non-voting babies and children): probably not far short of 50
The bulk of the electorate favours the Tories, they get more and more Tory as they get older and older (and, therefore, progressively more likely to vote as well,) and the segment that is strongly pro-Labour is the very young, who are much less numerous and largely allergic to polling booths.
This sort of analysis makes the near 2:1 lead of Con vs Lab in most current opinion polls all the more understandable.
And Tories still lead among the educated.
https://twitter.com/andy4wm/status/857262889371131904
"Mrs May might be considering ending the triple lock that underpins the level of state pensions which you would think would be a negative amongst the old."
We shall see what the Tories do about that. I'd be in favour of using the political window of opportunity to get rid of it whilst older voters are stuck with an alternative PM that they loathe, but we'll see whether or not they fudge it.
The Government could compromise by guaranteeing the triple lock for the next Parliament, but promising to conduct a review into whether or not it should be maintained thereafter? Kick the can down the road a bit...
On today's polls, with uniform swing, Labour would hold Hull West by around 14%.
Comfortable but you can't never be sure these days. Even if anonymous, she's probably a safe pair of hands that won't attract negative publicity during the campaign.
Just asking for a friend ....
https://twitter.com/los_fisher/status/857284081616375808
Something to warm the cockles of our cynical hearts.
So, not at the front of the queue then ?
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School teacher
then NUT officer
sits on Labour National Policy Forum
Hessle town councillor
Hull West & Hessle CLP Woman Officer
If it's just that they are both winners then Yes.
I don't see anything in the link to suggest that was wrong. It doesn't matter whether we're first, second or third in the queue, if we are only capable of actually getting through the gates by ourselves then that is irrelevant.
Of course the UKIP argument was that the EU was going to agree to TTIP so leave to avoid the trade deal. I never agreed with that.
I'd certainly rattle her until bits fell off.
This, in the absence of the blog:
https://uk.pinterest.com/emmaannhardy/
[JOKE]
It really does need to sink in that some people aspire to vocational and technical qualifications which earn them handsome livings, while packing everyone off to university for a life in an office increasingly downgrades many graduates to working class.
Some people need to modernise their thinking.
Class these days is as much about who owns what and who earns what, rather than who works with their hands and where and when people left education.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/vote-save-union/
I wouldn't want her sort putting ideas into the heads of our little ones; that's for sure.
That said - I still would.
Not like that traitorous, patronizing progressive alliance stuff.
Thoughtful article.
Labour's only chance: copy Australian Labor Party 1983 and get new Leader BEFORE campaign #GeneralElection"
In the two-thirds scenario, not only do 52 opposition seats fall into the blue column but another 45 seats, almost all Labour-held, come fall within range of a perfectly manageable (given the apparent decline in Labour support) swing of 5% or less. If nothing radical changes between now and June 8th then this adds up to the potential for a considerable rout.
1. Guardian
2. You
It’s the party of posh metropolitans who defend only immigrants and people on benefits.
The words the leadership uses have little meaning or resonance with erstwhile Labour voters. “Austerity” is empty verbiage to them, says Mattinson. Social justice, equality, fairness – these have no traction; they are abstractions that, if understood, are viewed with suspicion: more money for immigrants and people on benefits.
Just seen those posts. Deepest sympathy. I know how it sucks - I'm still stressing about my mum's loss 16 months on (which I realise is probably not the most helpful thing to say)! Hope you can stay strong.
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/857169809632526337
Home tenure and having a job (or a pension earned from one) seem to be as good an indicator of vote intention as most.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pbj1Alix4TM
I think its fair to say that after the days of homophobia discussions followed by a hostility to Jews sacking things have not got off to the desired start for the LibDems.
You can get 20/1 on the Conservatives in Bradford East - I've no idea if that's value but its a constituency where the candidate can have a big effect and the Conservatives weren't too far off winning in 2010.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/david-ward-sacked-1.436937
And it's worth reading if only for that wonderfully sarcastic final sentence!