Julia Dockerill selected as the Tory candidate for Hornchurch and Upminster.
" A Conservative Councillor in Tower Hamlets since 2014, where she represents the ward of St Katharine’s and Wapping, Dockerill works in Parliament as Chief of Staff to Mark Field MP. Born and raised in Essex, she was co-author with Field of the books The Best of Times and Between the Crashes, and is currently working on a social and economic modern history of London called London in the Noughties"
Do we honestly believe labour will get basically the same amount as under Ed Miliband and Gordon brown?
Yes, they might do even better, remember the polls have a history of underestimating Labour.....oh wait
Lol...Isn't the rule to take the worst labour figure?
Doesn't always apply, although this time? Seems more believable than 29%. Either that or we are all in anti-Corbyn bubbles to rival all those Miliband fanatics.
Simple truth is the country doesn't want Mrs May to have a silly majority.
Leads to complacency, a government does best when it has an effective opposition coming at them from all angles.
At what point does a majority become silly - on a poll like this it'd still be pretty darn hefty, especially if they make inroads into Scotland and Wales and Labour do not/go backwards respectively.
Julia Dockerill selected as the Tory candidate for Hornchurch and Upminster.
" A Conservative Councillor in Tower Hamlets since 2014, where she represents the ward of St Katharine’s and Wapping, Dockerill works in Parliament as Chief of Staff to Mark Field MP. Born and raised in Essex, she was co-author with Field of the books The Best of Times and Between the Crashes, and is currently working on a social and economic modern history of London called London in the Noughties"
That reminds me: are the Tories targetting Poplar & Limehouse again? I'd completely forgotten about the constituency somehow.
If Labour did poll 20% UNS is out of the window really isn't it? I mean, at that level there would be pretty much be nowhere safe?
Given that Labour will probably hold up reasonably well in certain pockets - most of Inner London, (some of?) the South Wales Valleys, Liverpool, Manchester, and some other urban pockets with large concentrations of Muslim voters - 20% would imply a significant collapse in vote share everywhere else. Labour could well shed most of the few seats it has left in the South, and in the Midlands (parts of Birmingham excepted,) including Nottinghamshire seats like Bolsover and Bassetlaw; all of the seats in North Wales, which look likely to go in any event; and most of those in Yorkshire and the North-East. Labour could end up resting on two pillars - in London and Lancashire - and very little else.
But, once again, this scenario strays well into "too good to be true" territory.
If Labour did poll 20% UNS is out of the window really isn't it? I mean, at that level there would be pretty much be nowhere safe?
Everywhere beyond the Valleys, a few ultra Labour bits of the NW and urban inner cities with sizeable and relatively deprived BAME populations is already in play.
Doesn't always apply, although this time? Seems more believable than 29%. Either that or we are all in anti-Corbyn bubbles to rival all those Miliband fanatics.
We might be anti-Corbyn but nobody here makes up data like Clive Lewis, our expectations are driven by the polls.
Everything points to Labour doing considerably worse than 2015. Leadership ratings alone should settle any nerves.
Simple truth is the country doesn't want Mrs May to have a silly majority.
Leads to complacency, a government does best when it has an effective opposition coming at them from all angles.
At what point does a majority become silly - on a poll like this it'd still be pretty darn hefty, especially if they make inroads into Scotland and Wales and Labour do not/go backwards respectively.
A majority of 70 to 80 is ideal.
Would allow effective government even with a 20 strong squad awkward squad.
Looks like Sarah Olney's still going to be an MP on June 9th.
There's a difference between a by-election and a general election here. in the by-election the libdems could concentrate their resources but at the general their resources are more thinly spread. that could make the 2% ish swing from the by-election. especially as he got over 50% in 2015
He could win it back, though it seems odd to reward him for causing them to lose the seat in the first place.
There will be a lot of prodigal sons (and daughters) returning to the Tory fold on June 9...
I think the Tories will be well up for this, and agree with the by-election / election analysis. Richmond was a protest vote, and incumbent hasn't had enough time to win over enough of the electorate in the short time. Appreciate there will be an anti-Zac effect, but not enough to depress his vote given the country-wide narrative.
Shame, because I really rate Sarah Olney and her election was a good thing to have happened. But no room for sentimentality in politics...
Over many years by-election victors have a very good track record of holding at the next GE, particularly if it follows soon afterwards. Voters have a sense that their new MP is entitled to a fair go, and don't like being asked the same question again. Putting the same man up again is a mistake by the Tories IMO, and that's before you get into his flakiness and the mess he created for them the last time. Slinking away into obscurity was too good for him.
If the Labour vote is only down by 2 points nationally they could actually be up slightly in London. Not good news for Gavin Barwell in Croydon Central.
Heh. Down to a mere 16 points. Wait for the panic/excitement when it is down to a mere12-3 (before rising again, probably).
Figured the glut of 20+ leads would probably lead to a bit of a resurgence for Lab.
Although frankly I am baffled both are so high. The Tory vote, well, I just have trouble accepting the evidence in my brain, but Lab have not dropped any support since 2015? Really?
I suspect a lot of general election only voters are automatically saying Labour but that these will prove very flaky - as they did in 1983, 1992, 2015 etc.
If a bookie were to market these what do you think fair odds should be?
A BPC-registered pollster shows Tories achieving 51% of votes? The Tories in the election to achieve a majority of votes? A BPC-registered pollster shows Lib Dems achieving a higher share than Labour? The Lib Dems in the election to achieve a higher share than Labour?
I don't bet with PBers, so (as the kids these days say) don't at me, but:
In order:
Definitely odds on, maybe 1/2. 14/1 or so (about as likely as Lab most seats) 25/1 ish 33/1 ish (about as likely as Labour overall majority)
If the polls stay as they are until the election and haven't overcompensated for the 2015 failure, I'd guess shares (assuming all parties stand everywhere) of Con 45, Lab 26.5, UKIP 8.5, LD 10.5, Grn 3.5, seats Con 390ish, Lab 180ish.
Gina Miller must be the least likeable person in politics at the moment - arrogant, condescending, thoroughly self-righteous, I hope for the same of my book she gets as much airtime in the next few weeks as possible.
Seriously though - where is Labour's floor? I am slightly up on a Con majority 100-149, very, very green on a Con majority 150 - 199 and slightly up on anything between 200 - 250.
I left my notes at work so I can't reproduce the working, but I estimated a Con majority of 231 if Labour fall to 120 seats which, if private polling suggests 20%, is quite possible.
Assuming I can afford to lose a few quid, where are the value bets on that kind of majority now? The Con majority and number of Labour seats odds have fallen drastically over the last couple of days. I'm assuming the best odds are on upsets in individual seats.
I hear Blyth Valley mentioned but what about Tynemouth? It was Conservative until 1997.
Tynemouth had a 15.4% Lab majority in 2015, and Ukip took 12.23% of the vote. It's 76th on the Tory target list; not easy, but well within the bounds of possibility if the Tories have the resources to get boots on the ground and they win over enough of the Ukip vote, one would've thought.
Simple truth is the country doesn't want Mrs May to have a silly majority.
Leads to complacency, a government does best when it has an effective opposition coming at them from all angles.
Agreed.
But If May gets a majority of 80-90, will there be an effective opposition?
Mrs May has a small majority today. We have NO opposition worthy of the name.
On the bright side, my bread is fresh out of the oven and the kitchen smells divine
Indeed, opposition is more a state of mind than a matter of numbers.
If May gets a majority of 50 but the Labour Party continues to be led by far left Corbynistas then there will still be no real opposition.
If May get a majority of 200 and the far left owns the defeat and is banished from the Labour Party then there is a chance of a real opposition emerging.
Once the Tories replaced IDS with Hague there was more of an opposition than before despite no change whatsoever in numbers.
@nickeardleybbc: The Electoral Alliance comes to life. Lib Dems not standing in Brighton Pavilion. Will support @CarolineLucas
Just combine all the left and right parties into single options, they may as well. Same goes for Scottish unionists.
I'm afraid SLab are already off installing a plethora of no-hopers, cannon fodder and Corbynites into contests across the nation, so you're out of luck there.
If the Labour vote is only down by 2 points nationally they could actually be up slightly in London. Not good news for Gavin Barwell in Croydon Central.
That's more like 3-4pts because of NI diluting the %
Simple truth is the country doesn't want Mrs May to have a silly majority.
Leads to complacency, a government does best when it has an effective opposition coming at them from all angles.
At what point does a majority become silly - on a poll like this it'd still be pretty darn hefty, especially if they make inroads into Scotland and Wales and Labour do not/go backwards respectively.
A majority of 70 to 80 is ideal.
Would allow effective government even with a 20 strong squad awkward squad.
It is the sort of majority that allowed Maggie to push through the Single European Market and get rid of national vetos.
Simple truth is the country doesn't want Mrs May to have a silly majority.
Leads to complacency, a government does best when it has an effective opposition coming at them from all angles.
Agreed.
But If May gets a majority of 80-90, will there be an effective opposition?
Mrs May has a small majority today. We have NO opposition worthy of the name.
On the bright side, my bread is fresh out of the oven and the kitchen smells divine
Indeed, opposition is more a state of mind than a matter of numbers.
If May gets a majority of 50 but the Labour Party continues to be led by far left Corbynistas then there will still be no real opposition.
If May get a majority of 200 and the far left owns the defeat and is banished from the Labour Party then there is a chance of a real opposition emerging.
Once the Tories replaced IDS with Hague there was more of an opposition than before despite no change whatsoever in numbers.
Twitter Kenny Farquharson@KennyFarq Kenny Farquharson Retweeted TimesEditorScotland This really takes some hard neck after everything she has said in past 10 months.
Looks like Sarah Olney's still going to be an MP on June 9th.
There's a difference between a by-election and a general election here. in the by-election the libdems could concentrate their resources but at the general their resources are more thinly spread. that could make the 2% ish swing from the by-election. especially as he got over 50% in 2015
He could win it back, though it seems odd to reward him for causing them to lose the seat in the first place.
There will be a lot of prodigal sons (and daughters) returning to the Tory fold on June 9...
I think the Tories will be well up for this, and agree with the by-election / election analysis. Richmond was a protest vote, and incumbent hasn't had enough time to win over enough of the electorate in the short time. Appreciate there will be an anti-Zac effect, but not enough to depress his vote given the country-wide narrative.
Shame, because I really rate Sarah Olney and her election was a good thing to have happened. But no room for sentimentality in politics...
Over many years by-election victors have a very good track record of holding at the next GE, particularly if it follows soon afterwards. Voters have a sense that their new MP is entitled to a fair go, and don't like being asked the same question again. Putting the same man up again is a mistake by the Tories IMO, and that's before you get into his flakiness and the mess he created for them the last time. Slinking away into obscurity was too good for him.
Lib / All / LibDem gains from the Conservatives lost at the next election:
Croydon NW Crosby Portsmouth S Ryedale Eastbourne Ribble Valley Kincardine Christchurch
Lib / All / LibDem gains from the Conservatives held at the next election
Julia Dockerill selected as the Tory candidate for Hornchurch and Upminster.
" A Conservative Councillor in Tower Hamlets since 2014, where she represents the ward of St Katharine’s and Wapping, Dockerill works in Parliament as Chief of Staff to Mark Field MP. Born and raised in Essex, she was co-author with Field of the books The Best of Times and Between the Crashes, and is currently working on a social and economic modern history of London called London in the Noughties"
She is a close friend.
I've already congratulated her, and she'll make a fantastic MP.
The thing which puzzles me about this question, which has fluctuated around a constant point as long as they've been asking it, and this one is no different: Why aren't they asking if the UK should Leave/Remain now?
Simple truth is the country doesn't want Mrs May to have a silly majority.
Leads to complacency, a government does best when it has an effective opposition coming at them from all angles.
Agreed.
But If May gets a majority of 80-90, will there be an effective opposition?
Mrs May has a small majority today. We have NO opposition worthy of the name.
On the bright side, my bread is fresh out of the oven and the kitchen smells divine
Indeed, opposition is more a state of mind than a matter of numbers.
If May gets a majority of 50 but the Labour Party continues to be led by far left Corbynistas then there will still be no real opposition.
If May get a majority of 200 and the far left owns the defeat and is banished from the Labour Party then there is a chance of a real opposition emerging.
Once the Tories replaced IDS with Hague there was more of an opposition than before despite no change whatsoever in numbers.
Hague was leader before IDS and Howard was leader after IDS.
Bet365 - the most bullish of the major bookies in terms of the size of the Tory majority, have trimmed their over/under, 5/6 either way you choose, tally of Tory MPs by three seats from 397.5 earlier today to 394.5, which still looks generous to me on the downside and I've topped up accordingly. DYOR.
Simple truth is the country doesn't want Mrs May to have a silly majority.
Leads to complacency, a government does best when it has an effective opposition coming at them from all angles.
I always find "the country wants/doesn't want" rather strange.
Each individual casts their vote; how do we get from there to a hive mind? Are we imagining some sort of matrix in the ether that's adjusting everyone's votes to a communal consensus? Why doesn't it work with the Referendums?
It seems a fair enough short-hand, after the election, to describe what actually happened, but the collective doesn't think/want/feel anything.
Julia Dockerill selected as the Tory candidate for Hornchurch and Upminster.
" A Conservative Councillor in Tower Hamlets since 2014, where she represents the ward of St Katharine’s and Wapping, Dockerill works in Parliament as Chief of Staff to Mark Field MP. Born and raised in Essex, she was co-author with Field of the books The Best of Times and Between the Crashes, and is currently working on a social and economic modern history of London called London in the Noughties"
She is a close friend.
I've already congratulated her, and she'll make a fantastic MP.
She must be good - it's not very often that a Tory gets a plug from that dedicated Socialist Dr. Parma.
Simple truth is the country doesn't want Mrs May to have a silly majority.
Leads to complacency, a government does best when it has an effective opposition coming at them from all angles.
Agreed.
But If May gets a majority of 80-90, will there be an effective opposition?
Mrs May has a small majority today. We have NO opposition worthy of the name.
On the bright side, my bread is fresh out of the oven and the kitchen smells divine
Indeed, opposition is more a state of mind than a matter of numbers.
If May gets a majority of 50 but the Labour Party continues to be led by far left Corbynistas then there will still be no real opposition.
If May get a majority of 200 and the far left owns the defeat and is banished from the Labour Party then there is a chance of a real opposition emerging.
Once the Tories replaced IDS with Hague there was more of an opposition than before despite no change whatsoever in numbers.
Hague was leader before IDS and Howard was leader after IDS.
Gina Miller must be the least likeable person in politics at the moment - arrogant, condescending, thoroughly self-righteous, I hope for the same of my book she gets as much airtime in the next few weeks as possible.
...
Based on that clip, I don't think Andrew Neil did take Gina Miller apart. Although she didn't articulate it well, she put her finger on an interesting point: unless Theresa May really has no discretion at all in her negotiations with the EU, it is quite reasonable to expect her to account for the trade-offs she does make. Andrew Neil never addressed that point, but just patronised her ("It's just a rich woman's hobby").
Simple truth is the country doesn't want Mrs May to have a silly majority.
Leads to complacency, a government does best when it has an effective opposition coming at them from all angles.
Agreed.
But If May gets a majority of 80-90, will there be an effective opposition?
Mrs May has a small majority today. We have NO opposition worthy of the name.
On the bright side, my bread is fresh out of the oven and the kitchen smells divine
Indeed, opposition is more a state of mind than a matter of numbers.
If May gets a majority of 50 but the Labour Party continues to be led by far left Corbynistas then there will still be no real opposition.
If May get a majority of 200 and the far left owns the defeat and is banished from the Labour Party then there is a chance of a real opposition emerging.
Once the Tories replaced IDS with Hague there was more of an opposition than before despite no change whatsoever in numbers.
Not in this timestream.
I meant Howard. I'd think from the context that was clear.
Leicester the council just barely voted REMAIN by 51% but that means the whitest constituency of the 3 Leicester West voted Leave. it is 64% white british.
Liz Kendall has on the face of it a safe seat. But the tories have a massive 17% ukip vote to squeeze which almost as big as her majority of 21%.
If you take just 5% from Labour to tory you get Lab 41% Tory 31%, if you then take away half the ukip vote and give it to the tories which is what the polls are showing then you get 39.5% tory for a result of:
Labour 41%
Tory 39.5%
Folks this is NOT a safe Labour seat IF the current polls are right.
It's been confirmed they are all Tories? Wish the CPS would get on with it rather than briefing the press endlessly.
FPT
I think it is all Tories, because it is 30 instances of the same thing - having a BattleBus of out-of-town Young Tories - a pretty unappealing concept - descend on your constituency for a day's campaigning, and not counting the cost of that towards your constituency spending limit. This may or may not be the Hillary's Emails of the campaign.
Simple truth is the country doesn't want Mrs May to have a silly majority.
Leads to complacency, a government does best when it has an effective opposition coming at them from all angles.
Agreed.
But If May gets a majority of 80-90, will there be an effective opposition?
Mrs May has a small majority today. We have NO opposition worthy of the name.
On the bright side, my bread is fresh out of the oven and the kitchen smells divine
Indeed, opposition is more a state of mind than a matter of numbers.
If May gets a majority of 50 but the Labour Party continues to be led by far left Corbynistas then there will still be no real opposition.
If May get a majority of 200 and the far left owns the defeat and is banished from the Labour Party then there is a chance of a real opposition emerging.
Once the Tories replaced IDS with Hague there was more of an opposition than before despite no change whatsoever in numbers.
Not in this timestream.
I meant Howard. I'd think from the context that was clear.
Comments
Leads to complacency, a government does best when it has an effective opposition coming at them from all angles.
But If May gets a majority of 80-90, will there be an effective opposition?
But, once again, this scenario strays well into "too good to be true" territory.
Everything points to Labour doing considerably worse than 2015. Leadership ratings alone should settle any nerves.
Sorry for your loss Sunil.
Would allow effective government even with a 20 strong squad awkward squad.
On the bright side, my bread is fresh out of the oven and the kitchen smells divine
UNS would give the Tories a decent, but not absurd, lead, if they were 13% ahead. But, maybe this will be 1997 in reverse.
11-1 maybe
4-1
100-1
https://twitter.com/Hayley_Barlow/status/857281201098412033
If May gets a majority of 50 but the Labour Party continues to be led by far left Corbynistas then there will still be no real opposition.
If May get a majority of 200 and the far left owns the defeat and is banished from the Labour Party then there is a chance of a real opposition emerging.
Once the Tories replaced IDS with Hague there was more of an opposition than before despite no change whatsoever in numbers.
Oh dear.
Is this evidence of (a) the robot turnip Labour habit vote trooping loyally back to vote for the Useless One, or (b) statistical noise?
More evidence required.
Note: 29% is the same vote share as Gordon Brown received in 2010.
I find it hard to credit that Labour under Corbyn can expect to do as well as Labour under Brown. Brown wasn't that bad, for God's sake.
Kenny Farquharson@KennyFarq
Kenny Farquharson Retweeted TimesEditorScotland
This really takes some hard neck after everything she has said in past 10 months.
TimesEditorScotland@magnusllewellin
Sturgeon delays revealing her roadmap to #indyref2 until after #Election2017
The Times - Sturgeon halts independence plans until after election
NEW THREAD
Croydon NW
Crosby
Portsmouth S
Ryedale
Eastbourne
Ribble Valley
Kincardine
Christchurch
Lib / All / LibDem gains from the Conservatives held at the next election
Glasgow Hillhead
Brecon
Newbury
Eastleigh
Romsey
She needs to drop that fast, and instead drop universal pensioner benefits. Alan Sugar really does not need a bus pass.
I've already congratulated her, and she'll make a fantastic MP.
DYOR.
Obviously.
Each individual casts their vote; how do we get from there to a hive mind? Are we imagining some sort of matrix in the ether that's adjusting everyone's votes to a communal consensus? Why doesn't it work with the Referendums?
It seems a fair enough short-hand, after the election, to describe what actually happened, but the collective doesn't think/want/feel anything.
Liz Kendall has on the face of it a safe seat. But the tories have a massive 17% ukip vote to squeeze which almost as big as her majority of 21%.
If you take just 5% from Labour to tory you get Lab 41% Tory 31%, if you then take away half the ukip vote and give it to the tories which is what the polls are showing then you get 39.5% tory for a result of:
Labour 41%
Tory 39.5%
Folks this is NOT a safe Labour seat IF the current polls are right.
I think it is all Tories, because it is 30 instances of the same thing - having a BattleBus of out-of-town Young Tories - a pretty unappealing concept - descend on your constituency for a day's campaigning, and not counting the cost of that towards your constituency spending limit. This may or may not be the Hillary's Emails of the campaign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16sT4yV43Cs