Any suggestions for a low stake bet going by any chance?
Maybe RIchmond is worth checking out - see if the odds have altered at all with the Zac announcement. If you want merely the satisfaction of winning even with low returns, Con Majority
Looks like Sarah Olney's still going to be an MP on June 9th.
There's a difference between a by-election and a general election here. in the by-election the libdems could concentrate their resources but at the general their resources are more thinly spread. that could make the 2% ish swing from the by-election. especially as he got over 50% in 2015
He could win it back, though it seems odd to reward him for causing them to lose the seat in the first place.
The swing was more like 8% as boundary changes had been beneficial for Labour.
ICYMI earlier - You asked me about Sheffield, I spoke to my Labour councillor friend, he said he won't be spending any time in Sheffield Hallam as that would be a waste of time, he's focusing on Sheffield Central, he's worried about the Greens there.
Didn't TSE indicate here recently that he was seriously considering giving up his Tory party membership? - I wouldn't imagine that would go down too well with the Tatton faithful.
oh he's just teasing, it's as likely as malcolm having underwear
Describing Theresa May as f*****g c**p wasn't a very good idea either, to say the least, or was that "just teasing" also?
If a bookie were to market these what do you think fair odds should be?
A BPC-registered pollster shows Tories achieving 51% of votes? The Tories in the election to achieve a majority of votes? A BPC-registered pollster shows Lib Dems achieving a higher share than Labour? The Lib Dems in the election to achieve a higher share than Labour?
Any suggestions for a low stake bet going by any chance?
Maybe RIchmond is worth checking out - see if the odds have altered at all with the Zac announcement. If you want merely the satisfaction of winning even with low returns, Con Majority
Heh, I am on Ladbrokes currently. Might just make a few small stakes (around here the word used would be 'tiny') then forget about it until the day, and pick up my min-winnings.
If Labour are on 20%, they are losing more than 61 seats to the Tories
Feels like two stories together to me:
1. Polling is 20%
2. Even without any Lab-Con swing, rolling the UKIP vote into the Cons would overturn the existing Lab majority in 61 of the top targets. Simplistic, of course, but a clear illustration of where Lab could be heading.
If a bookie were to market these what do you think fair odds should be?
A BPC-registered pollster shows Tories achieving 51% of votes? The Tories in the election to achieve a majority of votes? A BPC-registered pollster shows Lib Dems achieving a higher share than Labour? The Lib Dems in the election to achieve a higher share than Labour?
The fourth of these is an active market (for those fools who wish to throw their money away).
If Labour are on 20%, they are losing more than 61 seats to the Tories
Feels like two stories together to me:
1. Polling is 20%
2. Even without any Lab-Con swing, rolling the UKIP vote into the Cons would overturn the existing Lab majority in 61 of the top targets. Simplistic, of course, but a clear illustration of where Lab could be heading.
The swing was more like 8% as boundary changes had been beneficial for Labour.
ICYMI earlier - You asked me about Sheffield, I spoke to my Labour councillor friend, he said he won't be spending any time in Sheffield Hallam as that would be a waste of time, he's focusing on Sheffield Central, he's worried about the Greens there.
Thanks.
I see the Greens have shortened to 9/1, which is probably still value.
Nathalie Bennett is a bit of a harridan though - I wonder if the Greens would have done better with a local councillor as a candidate.
If a bookie were to market these what do you think fair odds should be?
A BPC-registered pollster shows Tories achieving 51% of votes? The Tories in the election to achieve a majority of votes? A BPC-registered pollster shows Lib Dems achieving a higher share than Labour? The Lib Dems in the election to achieve a higher share than Labour?
The fourth of these is an active market (for those fools who wish to throw their money away).
The fourth is the least likely (which says a lot that the second could be taken more seriously) but it is a better than 50/1 shot I'd think. 50/1 shots can come in.
Julia Dockerill selected as the Tory candidate for Hornchurch and Upminster.
" A Conservative Councillor in Tower Hamlets since 2014, where she represents the ward of St Katharine’s and Wapping, Dockerill works in Parliament as Chief of Staff to Mark Field MP. Born and raised in Essex, she was co-author with Field of the books The Best of Times and Between the Crashes, and is currently working on a social and economic modern history of London called London in the Noughties"
Looks like Sarah Olney's still going to be an MP on June 9th.
There's a difference between a by-election and a general election here. in the by-election the libdems could concentrate their resources but at the general their resources are more thinly spread. that could make the 2% ish swing from the by-election. especially as he got over 50% in 2015
He could win it back, though it seems odd to reward him for causing them to lose the seat in the first place.
There will be a lot of prodigal sons (and daughters) returning to the Tory fold on June 9...
I think the Tories will be well up for this, and agree with the by-election / election analysis. Richmond was a protest vote, and incumbent hasn't had enough time to win over enough of the electorate in the short time. Appreciate there will be an anti-Zac effect, but not enough to depress his vote given the country-wide narrative.
Shame, because I really rate Sarah Olney and her election was a good thing to have happened. But no room for sentimentality in politics...
Human rights until 2022, eu budget payments until 2020...Feels like we are heading for a transitional agreement between 2019 - 2022.
Of course we are.
The Treaty of Rome wasn't unbuilt in a day.
But I thought the whole idea of holding a General Election now was to have the whole Brexit business done and dusted well before 2022, yet apparently we're now entering into transitional arrangements until ......... 2022! - Is it me?
If a bookie were to market these what do you think fair odds should be?
A BPC-registered pollster shows Tories achieving 51% of votes? The Tories in the election to achieve a majority of votes? A BPC-registered pollster shows Lib Dems achieving a higher share than Labour? The Lib Dems in the election to achieve a higher share than Labour?
I don't bet with PBers, so (as the kids these days say) don't at me, but:
In order:
Definitely odds on, maybe 1/2. 14/1 or so (about as likely as Lab most seats) 25/1 ish 33/1 ish (about as likely as Labour overall majority)
If the polls stay as they are until the election and haven't overcompensated for the 2015 failure, I'd guess shares (assuming all parties stand everywhere) of Con 45, Lab 26.5, UKIP 8.5, LD 10.5, Grn 3.5, seats Con 390ish, Lab 180ish.
Human rights until 2022, eu budget payments until 2020...Feels like we are heading for a transitional agreement between 2019 - 2022.
Of course we are.
The Treaty of Rome wasn't unbuilt in a day.
But I thought the whole idea of holding a General Election now was to have the whole Brexit business done and dusted well before 2022, yet apparently we're now entering into transitional arrangements until ......... 2022! - Is it me?
The EU was already speaking of a three year transition, this puts the timeline to me as:
March 2017 Article 50 invoked June 2017 General Election March 2019 Exit EU, start of 3 year transition March 2022 end of transition, permanent arrangements begin May/June 2022 General Election
Heh. Down to a mere 16 points. Wait for the panic/excitement when it is down to a mere12-3 (before rising again, probably).
Figured the glut of 20+ leads would probably lead to a bit of a resurgence for Lab.
Although frankly I am baffled both are so high. The Tory vote, well, I just have trouble accepting the evidence in my brain, but Lab have not dropped any support since 2015? Really?
Although frankly I am baffled both are so high. The Tory vote, well, I just have trouble accepting the evidence in my brain, but Lab have not dropped any support since 2015? Really?
Gina Miller must be the least likeable person in politics at the moment - arrogant, condescending, thoroughly self-righteous, I hope for the same of my book she gets as much airtime in the next few weeks as possible.
Seriously though - where is Labour's floor? I am slightly up on a Con majority 100-149, very, very green on a Con majority 150 - 199 and slightly up on anything between 200 - 250.
I left my notes at work so I can't reproduce the working, but I estimated a Con majority of 231 if Labour fall to 120 seats which, if private polling suggests 20%, is quite possible.
Assuming I can afford to lose a few quid, where are the value bets on that kind of majority now? The Con majority and number of Labour seats odds have fallen drastically over the last couple of days. I'm assuming the best odds are on upsets in individual seats.
I hear Blyth Valley mentioned but what about Tynemouth? It was Conservative until 1997.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nottingham_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The swing was more like 8% as boundary changes had been beneficial for Labour.
It looks like she just gave him a roasting.
If Labour are on 20%, they are losing more than 61 seats to the Tories
As the Greens have stood down in Ealing Central to help Labour its clear that a vote for the LibDems is a vote for the Greens is a vote for Labour.
# as in share price charting..
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/857339266384449537
Told ya'.
A BPC-registered pollster shows Tories achieving 51% of votes?
The Tories in the election to achieve a majority of votes?
A BPC-registered pollster shows Lib Dems achieving a higher share than Labour?
The Lib Dems in the election to achieve a higher share than Labour?
Silent, under the radar ones work, cf Dave, George, and Sir Lynton wiping out the Yellow Peril
Head of NUS who never went to uni.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/04/26/zionist-row-president-ousted-top-national-union-students/
That's a thing.
1. Polling is 20%
2. Even without any Lab-Con swing, rolling the UKIP vote into the Cons would overturn the existing Lab majority in 61 of the top targets. Simplistic, of course, but a clear illustration of where Lab could be heading.
Juncker 1 Brexiteers nil.
You can see why giving Theresa carte blanche to agree without parliamentary scrutiny may not be wise.
Couldn't they have selected someone like Mark Reckless instead?
Bozza hits Jezza hard
You guessed it
George Osborne.
The Treaty of Rome wasn't unbuilt in a day.
I see the Greens have shortened to 9/1, which is probably still value.
Nathalie Bennett is a bit of a harridan though - I wonder if the Greens would have done better with a local councillor as a candidate.
'We will be focussing on educating and empowering people to make a tactical vote and choosing MP's who will do the best for Britain'
Educating !!!!!!!!! - sums up the arrogance and attitude of EU idealogs that anyone who is against Europe needs brain washing
Con take out Ashworth at 33/1 in Leics South is reasonable value though.
" A Conservative Councillor in Tower Hamlets since 2014, where she represents the ward of St Katharine’s and Wapping, Dockerill works in Parliament as Chief of Staff to Mark Field MP. Born and raised in Essex, she was co-author with Field of the books The Best of Times and Between the Crashes, and is currently working on a social and economic modern history of London called London in the Noughties"
I think the Tories will be well up for this, and agree with the by-election / election analysis. Richmond was a protest vote, and incumbent hasn't had enough time to win over enough of the electorate in the short time. Appreciate there will be an anti-Zac effect, but not enough to depress his vote given the country-wide narrative.
Shame, because I really rate Sarah Olney and her election was a good thing to have happened. But no room for sentimentality in politics...
Like a better looking Bill Cash.
In order:
Definitely odds on, maybe 1/2.
14/1 or so (about as likely as Lab most seats)
25/1 ish
33/1 ish (about as likely as Labour overall majority)
If the polls stay as they are until the election and haven't overcompensated for the 2015 failure, I'd guess shares (assuming all parties stand everywhere) of Con 45, Lab 26.5, UKIP 8.5, LD 10.5, Grn 3.5, seats Con 390ish, Lab 180ish.
Hopefully Richmond's voters will do their duty and send back to his trust fund (again)
March 2017 Article 50 invoked
June 2017 General Election
March 2019 Exit EU, start of 3 year transition
March 2022 end of transition, permanent arrangements begin
May/June 2022 General Election
Figured the glut of 20+ leads would probably lead to a bit of a resurgence for Lab.
Although frankly I am baffled both are so high. The Tory vote, well, I just have trouble accepting the evidence in my brain, but Lab have not dropped any support since 2015? Really?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NpD8RFl3zQ
Gina Miller must be the least likeable person in politics at the moment - arrogant, condescending, thoroughly self-righteous, I hope for the same of my book she gets as much airtime in the next few weeks as possible.
Seriously though - where is Labour's floor? I am slightly up on a Con majority 100-149, very, very green on a Con majority 150 - 199 and slightly up on anything between 200 - 250.
I left my notes at work so I can't reproduce the working, but I estimated a Con majority of 231 if Labour fall to 120 seats which, if private polling suggests 20%, is quite possible.
Assuming I can afford to lose a few quid, where are the value bets on that kind of majority now? The Con majority and number of Labour seats odds have fallen drastically over the last couple of days. I'm assuming the best odds are on upsets in individual seats.
I hear Blyth Valley mentioned but what about Tynemouth? It was Conservative until 1997.