If Sunil is about deepest condolences. Same to S Murali
Thanks SquareRoot and thanks all for your condolences.
What has happened? bad news?
Sunil lost his father at the weekend, Murali recently too. They both posted about it on the last thread, and a lot of regulars said a lot of nice things. It's worth reading back.
Sorry to hear. Sad at any age. My sympathies to both.
The Vote Leave argument was never that the EU was not worth the US making a deal with. It was that the EU was incapable of reaching a comprehensive agreement with the US due to the interests of French farmers etc and the need to appeal to the lowest common denominator.
I don't see anything in the link to suggest that was wrong. It doesn't matter whether we're first, second or third in the queue, if we are only capable of actually getting through the gates by ourselves then that is irrelevant.
So the Vote Leave argument is that the EU is incapable of concluding comprehensive trade agreements? A bizarre position since the feasibility of Brexit relies on it being totally wrong.
The EU has been capable of concluding comprehensive agreements with its European neighbours but has struggled with major agreements from other continents yes. Thus we can leave and seek a neighbours agreement, while capable of then seeking our own agreements for those further afield.
Presumably because as a strong, centralised state, we can tell "farmers in Wales" to get stuffed?
That much is obvious. A free trade deal with Oz, NZ or Canada is going to mean cheap imported food. Good for consumers, less good for our farmers and landscape.
If we stop over grazing the uplands that will be a very good thing for our landscape.
Better still if we can plant more native woodland. Helps prevent flooding too.
"This site is marked private by its owner. If you would like to view it, you’ll need two things: A WordPress.com account. Don’t have an account? All you need is an email address and password — register here! Permission from the site owner. Once you've created an account, log in and revisit this screen to request an invite. If you already have both of these, great! Log in here: Email or Username"
Presumably she's just editing it to remove all mentions of her views of the Jews.
Or education is a confounder for age. A poll by education within the same age cohort would be informative.
Ah! My first thought on reading the thread header was: How do they normalise (is that the right word) for the dramatic increase of university education during the years that have made older voters older?
@Black_Rook That's very helpful, especially since a large chunk of the Conservative surge is apparently directly from UKIP. The "two thirds defection" looks eminently possible.
My model for Scotland gives 100% defection from UKIP to Tory.
Somebody should really give that pie guy a tv slot. There is little decent political comedy these days.
It's surely high time for the BBC or ITV to bring back Spitting Image or Yes Minister. YM was mostly based on real life, which never ceases to amaze, so there's no shortage of plots.
Or the BBC could buy the Spitting Image Rights from ITV and do that. I wonder what's happened to the puppets; were they auctioned off? (some people would probably pay good money for that kind of stuff).
Labour's only chance: copy Australian Labor Party 1983 and get new Leader BEFORE campaign #GeneralElection"
Given Lab's currently murderous family dynamic, HTF do they do that?
My mischievous side is wondering if Tom Watson might be in trouble in West Bromwich East. He's defending a 9,500 majority, just over 50% of the vote, but UKIP and the Tories combined were nudging 45%. Moreover, there are rumours Labour are doing much worse than West Midlands than elsewhere (which to judge from their abject performance in Wales, would be pretty bloody awful).
In which case, Corbyn might legitimately point out that if he resigned, Labour would be left completely leaderless - and therefore he had to stay on at least until a new deputy leader was elected.
Mind you, even allowing for that watching everyone's least favourite bully and the most inept political fixer of all time getting hammered would be delicious. It would be like Putney '97 only much funnier because David Mellor may like Watson be a graceless buffoon, a complete political failure and a serial adulterer but he has some good points.
26% affected. 1/4th of the entire population. No amount of spin can change that.
You're suggesting IpsosMORI are spinning?
Perhaps the New Statesman is beyond reproach;
General election 2017: Why don't voters get more angry about public spending cuts? In 2012, 61 per cent were concerned about the impact of future cuts. By 2017 this was down to 45 per cent. What happened?
Looks wonderful - So you don’t regret choosing the Loire valley over Rome then?
No. Not least cause I'm now going to Rome in June, anyway.
The Loire is fascinating. The chateaux are indeed amazing, the food is pleasant but not brilliant (as ever in modern France), there is a general air of decay and malaise in the smaller, less touristy towns, parts of it (like this boat on the backwaters) are utterly exquisite.
26% affected. 1/4th of the entire population. No amount of spin can change that.
You're suggesting IpsosMORI are spinning?
Perhaps the New Statesman is beyond reproach;
General election 2017: Why don't voters get more angry about public spending cuts? In 2012, 61 per cent were concerned about the impact of future cuts. By 2017 this was down to 45 per cent. What happened?
26% affected. 1/4th of the entire population. No amount of spin can change that.
You're suggesting IpsosMORI are spinning?
Perhaps the New Statesman is beyond reproach;
General election 2017: Why don't voters get more angry about public spending cuts? In 2012, 61 per cent were concerned about the impact of future cuts. By 2017 this was down to 45 per cent. What happened?
But the key point is that the cuts are not biting at a personal level for large proportions of the population, rather they are concentrated among quite a small proportion of people. So, back in 2012, 32 per cent said they had been affected by cuts to public services – by 2017 this had actually declined to 26 per cent. No cumulative, growing resentment at the personal impact of cuts - in fact, the opposite.
26% affected. 1/4th of the entire population. No amount of spin can change that.
I feel sure you will try to make it worse. You seem to have become detached from reality of late.
So would I wish to be if I were a Labour supporter. It's getting quite difficult to see how things could possibly be worse than they are right now for Labour. It's looking grimly like an absolutely perfect storm - a hopeless leader, a popular opponent, a confused policy offering, a disillusioned core vote, a weak and impoverished support network, parties snapping at votes on the left, a hostile media...
15% and under 50 seats, their answer to the Liberals in 1924, isn't likely but it would be a brave person said it wasn't possible.
Looks wonderful - So you don’t regret choosing the Loire valley over Rome then?
No. Not least cause I'm now going to Rome in June, anyway.
The Loire is fascinating. The chateaux are indeed amazing, the food is pleasant but not brilliant (as ever in modern France), there is a general air of decay and malaise in the smaller, less touristy towns, parts of it (like this boat on the backwaters) are utterly exquisite.
Opinions, eh. When I went there (staying near Saumur) I came to the view that it was ideal for the elderly and those with a very high tolerance to boredom.
26% affected. 1/4th of the entire population. No amount of spin can change that.
You're suggesting IpsosMORI are spinning?
Perhaps the New Statesman is beyond reproach;
General election 2017: Why don't voters get more angry about public spending cuts? In 2012, 61 per cent were concerned about the impact of future cuts. By 2017 this was down to 45 per cent. What happened?
But the key point is that the cuts are not biting at a personal level for large proportions of the population, rather they are concentrated among quite a small proportion of people. So, back in 2012, 32 per cent said they had been affected by cuts to public services – by 2017 this had actually declined to 26 per cent. No cumulative, growing resentment at the personal impact of cuts - in fact, the opposite.
This is always worth remembering: for most of the population, especially those without children at school, their main interactions with anything that might be described as "public service" are with the BBC, carriageway repair and refuse collection - topics which cause irritation, but rarely major inconvenience.
Those disproportionately dependent on, and thus more likely to complain about, public services include the disabled, the chronically sick, and working-age people who are long-term benefits dependent - groups that would be counted amongst the residual Labour core vote in any event.
Let's face it, if Ed Miliband could barely lay a glove on David Cameron by deploying the usual "x-number of days to save the NHS" spiel, then Corbyn almost certainly won't have any more success against May.
Labour's only chance: copy Australian Labor Party 1983 and get new Leader BEFORE campaign #GeneralElection"
Given Lab's currently murderous family dynamic, HTF do they do that?
My mischievous side is wondering if Tom Watson might be in trouble in West Bromwich East. He's defending a 9,500 majority, just over 50% of the vote, but UKIP and the Tories combined were nudging 45%. Moreover, there are rumours Labour are doing much worse than West Midlands than elsewhere (which to judge from their abject performance in Wales, would be pretty bloody awful).
In which case, Corbyn might legitimately point out that if he resigned, Labour would be left completely leaderless - and therefore he had to stay on at least until a new deputy leader was elected.
Mind you, even allowing for that watching everyone's least favourite bully and the most inept political fixer of all time getting hammered would be delicious. It would be like Putney '97 only much funnier because David Mellor may like Watson be a graceless buffoon, a complete political failure and a serial adulterer but he has some good points.
Sadly, Watson is a relatively unlikely casualty. Even if two-thirds of the entire Ukip vote defected to the Tories, they would still need something like a 5.6% swing against Labour on top of that to defeat him.
Even if Labour is - let us fervently hope - reduced to a rump, Watson would probably be part of it.
Doubtless preparing to declare some kind of moral victory if Con+Ukip+NI Unionists = anything less than 50% of the whole vote. Hopefully she'll find herself being disappointed.
26% affected. 1/4th of the entire population. No amount of spin can change that.
I feel sure you will try to make it worse. You seem to have become detached from reality of late.
So would I wish to be if I were a Labour supporter. It's getting quite difficult to see how things could possibly be worse than they are right now for Labour. It's looking grimly like an absolutely perfect storm - a hopeless leader, a popular opponent, a confused policy offering, a disillusioned core vote, a weak and impoverished support network, parties snapping at votes on the left, a hostile media...
15% and under 50 seats, their answer to the Liberals in 1924, isn't likely but it would be a brave person said it wasn't possible.
Theoretically possible (just as it is theoretically possible that the country could be levelled by an asteroid before we get to vote,) but as near to impossible as you'll reasonably come, I'm afraid.
Doubtless preparing to declare some kind of moral victory if Con+Ukip+NI Unionists = anything less than 50% of the whole vote. Hopefully she'll find herself being disappointed.
I would actually agree with her on that, just as I would agree that if the pro-Indy candidates in Scotland get over 50% of the vote that's a pretty unarguable call for another referendum.
However, the second is a doubtful call right now, the first is looking not merely very likely but damn near certain.
26% affected. 1/4th of the entire population. No amount of spin can change that.
I feel sure you will try to make it worse. You seem to have become detached from reality of late.
So would I wish to be if I were a Labour supporter. It's getting quite difficult to see how things could possibly be worse than they are right now for Labour. It's looking grimly like an absolutely perfect storm - a hopeless leader, a popular opponent, a confused policy offering, a disillusioned core vote, a weak and impoverished support network, parties snapping at votes on the left, a hostile media...
15% and under 50 seats, their answer to the Liberals in 1924, isn't likely but it would be a brave person said it wasn't possible.
Theoretically possible (just as it is theoretically possible that the country could be levelled by an asteroid before we get to vote,) but as near to impossible as you'll reasonably come, I'm afraid.
We said that about the SNP. And Brexit. And Trump.
Heck, there were even people who laughed at OGH for his crazy bet of 50/1 on some unknown coloured senator from Chicago to be the next POTUS.
I agree it is not the most likely scenario. Equally, I admire your courage.
Doubtless preparing to declare some kind of moral victory if Con+Ukip+NI Unionists = anything less than 50% of the whole vote. Hopefully she'll find herself being disappointed.
I would actually agree with her on that, just as I would agree that if the pro-Indy candidates in Scotland get over 50% of the vote that's a pretty unarguable call for another referendum.
However, the second is a doubtful call right now, the first is looking not merely very likely but damn near certain.
I would like to think that the election campaign period might see the Nats edge down to around 40%, and the Tories up to 35% - I've not crunched the numbers, but this ought to tip a fair number of SNP seats into the Tory column, and knock the shine right off the indyref2 drive. However, as with the Labour sub-150 scenario, this has the feeling of "too good to be true" about it.
Still, if the SNP can at least be held at 45% rather than 50%, then the Green vote oughtn't to be nearly enough at a Westminster election to make up the difference.
Firstly much love and sympathy to @Sunil and @murali_s at politically turbulent times we must always remember that there is much more that unites us in this country than divides.
FPT re-Exeter my old stomping ground. Much depends on how well Ben Bradshaw can withstand a Tory surge but I would caution against believing UNS here. Exeter, demographically, has changed a lot. There are much more middle-class lefties from the University and the Met Office moreover Tory Topsham was transferred to East Devon from 2010. Moreover Mr Bradshaw is very highly regarded locally. He is a good constituency MP always willing to stop and talk to his constituents either on the footbridge at St Davids station, along the quay or in his favourite curry house on Fore Street (all from personal or friends anecdotes.) Moreover he also played a key role in keeping the mighty Grecians aka Exeter City FC afloat when it seemed we might disappear. I'm vacillating between voting for Theresa May - who I think has done a good job and UKIP in order to put pressure on her to ensure a proper Brexit. Were I still in Exeter I would probably vote Labour for Ben Bradshaw for the reasons given above - nothing is more important than Brexit - except perhaps Exeter City FC..*
*Unless the election was tight then I would vote him out but since its not..
On another topic - feel sorry for Sarah Hayward missing out on the Hull West Labour PPC. I disagree with her politics but knowing her at Hull Uni (indeed sharing a house with her) she would make an excellent MP and is exactly what Labour need right now.
When I visit chateaux and other indulgences I think of the workers, artisans and designers who built them. These structures might in some ways best be experienced in their nooks and crannies, usually closed to the public. For instance in the loft of the Kings College chapel there are a few symbols in the stones comprising the ceiling proper. Whether they mark guilds or individual craftsmen, or deaths even, I do not know. There is a small hole through the ceiling stonework such that, prone, putting your ear to it you can hear the music below.
Firstly much love and sympathy to @Sunil and @murali_s at politically turbulent times we must always remember that there is much more that unites us in this country than divides.
FPT re-Exeter my old stomping ground. Much depends on how well Ben Bradshaw can withstand a Tory surge but I would caution against believing UNS here. Exeter, demographically, has changed a lot. There are much more middle-class lefties from the University and the Met Office moreover Tory Topsham was transferred to East Devon from 2010. Moreover Mr Bradshaw is very highly regarded locally. He is a good constituency MP always willing to stop and talk to his constituents either on the footbridge at St Davids station, along the quay or in his favourite curry house on Fore Street (all from personal or friends anecdotes.) Moreover he also played a key role in keeping the mighty Grecians aka Exeter City FC afloat when it seemed we might disappear. I'm vacillating between voting for Theresa May - who I think has done a good job and UKIP in order to put pressure on her to ensure a proper Brexit. Were I still in Exeter I would probably vote Labour for Ben Bradshaw for the reasons given above - nothing is more important than Brexit - except perhaps Exeter City FC..*
*Unless the election was tight then I would vote him out but since its not..
On another topic - feel sorry for Sarah Hayward missing out on the Hull West Labour PPC. I disagree with her politics but knowing her at Hull Uni (indeed sharing a house with her) she would make an excellent MP and is exactly what Labour need right now.
Interesting assessment from Exeter. Seems like a good chance to be Labour's bastion in the SW once again (along with a couple of Bristol seats)
I'm not sure this sort of thing (so-called splits, not Indyref) matters very much to the average voter.
In the grand scheme of things they don't - voters don't pay attention to the details. They do however pick up on division and disunity - and Eck isn't making Nicola's life easier....
Deep dislike of Labour long pre-dates Corbyn: he’s the catalyst for catastrophe, not its underlying cause. “But leadership matters massively, more than ever before,” Mattinson says, after Labour’s three unpopular leaders in a row.
She asked her voter panels to keep diaries at the last election, and found 80% of what they wrote every day concerned their feelings about leaders, not the policies.
Shows why leader ratings have often been a better predictor.
'Massive' tax cut for businesses Business rate to go from 35 per cent to 15 per cent.
Cohn says it was 34 per cent when Ronald Reagan left office and it "hasn't changed much since".
He said: "Other countries have been aggressively cutting to attract businesses.
"We are stuck with a 1988 corporate tax and are one of the least attractive countries in the developed world.
"We are going to cut taxes to make businesses competitive and cut them for low and middle class families."
I wonder how that impacts the Irish.
Probably less than it will impact the Amercian Revenue service when 2/3rd of their business revenue disappears.
What a stunningly great plan for a country with a staggeringly huge deficit. Stop collecting taxes. Duh!
As you head further and further to the left don't forget that the Laffer curve doesn't just apply to nations like Ireland.
There are companies like Apple sitting on mountains of cash that they're not doing anything with because if they send the money home back to America then it will cause a mammoth corporation tax liability. They've been lobbying to get a lower tax rate and then they'll bring the money home.
Better for America to take 15% of Apple's cash than none of it.
Between Apple, Microsoft, Google, Cisco and Oracle these five leading tech companies sit on half a trillion US dollars in cash. The US starting to collect tax on it will help their deficit not hurt it.
When I visit chateaux and other indulgences I think of the workers, artisans and designers who built them. These structures might in some ways best be experienced in their nooks and crannies, usually closed to the public. For instance in the loft of the Kings College chapel there are a few symbols in the stones comprising the ceiling proper. Whether they mark guilds or individual craftsmen, or deaths even, I do not know. There is a small hole through the ceiling stonework such that, prone, putting your ear to it you can hear the music below.
Scene: King's College chapel, circa 1500:
Mason 1: What're you making those marks on the stones for? Mason 2: Because this building will last hundreds of years, and people'll always wonder what they're for. Mason 1: So what're they for? Mason 2: To annoy the curious.
Mason 2: Now my friend, what's that hole you've made for? Mason 1: So I can spy on the worthy. Mason 2: Spy? Mason 1: Did I say spy? I meant pee.
First!!!! (using the Corbyn Labour meaning of "first" so actually about 150th)
What's the difference between a Labour pessimist and a Labour optimist?
A Labour pessimist says, 'Things are so terrible right now it can't possibly get any worse.'
The optimist replies, 'it will, it really will.'
(Shamelessly and adoringly ripped off from a similar joke about the Soviet system.)
The one I recall about Soviet workers was "As long as they pretend to pay us, we will pretend to work"
My favourites are all about Brezhnev. Two, just for fun before I disappear:
Brezhnev summons his astronauts and tells them that to get ahead of the Americans, they will make the first landing on the sun.
One of the astronauts demurs. 'But Comrade Brezhnev, we'll be burned up!'
'Do you think I'm an idiot?' snaps Brezhnev. 'I've thought of that. We'll time your landing to be at night.'
And - allegedly a true story:
At the Moscow Olympics in 1980 Brezhnev made a speech that lasted 45 minutes. As he walked off to thunderous applause he turned to his speechwriter and said, 'Comrade, I asked you to write a speech of 15 minutes. Why did you make it so long?'
'Well, Comrade Brezhnev,' replied his speechwriter, 'I wrote you the speech to last 15 minutes as you asked. However, you also asked me for three copies.'
'Massive' tax cut for businesses Business rate to go from 35 per cent to 15 per cent.
Cohn says it was 34 per cent when Ronald Reagan left office and it "hasn't changed much since".
He said: "Other countries have been aggressively cutting to attract businesses.
"We are stuck with a 1988 corporate tax and are one of the least attractive countries in the developed world.
"We are going to cut taxes to make businesses competitive and cut them for low and middle class families."
I wonder how that impacts the Irish.
Good point. Pincered between Brexit and now this, the Irish economy could be utterly hammered.
Indeed. The cost of leaving the United Kingdom - you don't get a say in what England wants to do. Some of our Celtic brethren have forgotten that the Union protects them from the English.
Or staff could relocate to the UK. Almost anything could happen, therefore a headline that includes the word "could" does indeed speak for itself - it shows that the headline is meaningless.
It's not meaningless.
DeutscheBank is stepping up its lobbying effort, and is possibly subject to some own tangential lobbying itself to do so by individuals within the German administration.
If Sunil is about deepest condolences. Same to S Murali
Thanks SquareRoot and thanks all for your condolences.
What has happened? bad news?
Sunil lost his father at the weekend, Murali recently too. They both posted about it on the last thread, and a lot of regulars said a lot of nice things. It's worth reading back.
I missed those posts - belatedly, let me add my condolences too. Losing parents is one of the worst things we nearly all go through, and knowing it will probably happen doesn't necessarily help. Good luck for better days, both.
When I visit chateaux and other indulgences I think of the workers, artisans and designers who built them. These structures might in some ways best be experienced in their nooks and crannies, usually closed to the public. For instance in the loft of the Kings College chapel there are a few symbols in the stones comprising the ceiling proper. Whether they mark guilds or individual craftsmen, or deaths even, I do not know. There is a small hole through the ceiling stonework such that, prone, putting your ear to it you can hear the music below.
Scene: King's College chapel, circa 1500:
Mason 1: What're you making those marks on the stones for? Mason 2: Because this building will last hundreds of years, and people'll always wonder what they're for. Mason 1: So what're they for? Mason 2: To annoy the curious.
Mason 2: Now my friend, what's that hole you've made for? Mason 1: So I can spy on the worthy. Mason 2: Spy? Mason 1: Did I say spy? I meant pee.
Well, it is Cambridge.
Heh. When they were digging around the building they found remnants of the workers meals. Every time I experience such a religious place I think of Golding's "The Spire". He had an amazing way of worming his way into ordinary folk's mentality.
Deep dislike of Labour long pre-dates Corbyn: he’s the catalyst for catastrophe, not its underlying cause. “But leadership matters massively, more than ever before,” Mattinson says, after Labour’s three unpopular leaders in a row.
She asked her voter panels to keep diaries at the last election, and found 80% of what they wrote every day concerned their feelings about leaders, not the policies.
Shows why leader ratings have often been a better predictor.
It would be helpful if the polls turned out to be a little bit off beam again - in the Tories' favour, as is usually the case.
Of course, we're not really going to know if Labour has bottomed out at ~25% until polling day - and, on that note, the Labour Party now has 42 campaign days left to convince the people of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is something that they've always dreamt of.
Labour's only chance: copy Australian Labor Party 1983 and get new Leader BEFORE campaign #GeneralElection"
Given Lab's currently murderous family dynamic, HTF do they do that?
My mischievous side is wondering if Tom Watson might be in trouble in West Bromwich East. He's defending a 9,500 majority, just over 50% of the vote, but UKIP and the Tories combined were nudging 45%. Moreover, there are rumours Labour are doing much worse than West Midlands than elsewhere (which to judge from their abject performance in Wales, would be pretty bloody awful).
In which case, Corbyn might legitimately point out that if he resigned, Labour would be left completely leaderless - and therefore he had to stay on at least until a new deputy leader was elected.
Mind you, even allowing for that watching everyone's least favourite bully and the most inept political fixer of all time getting hammered would be delicious. It would be like Putney '97 only much funnier because David Mellor may like Watson be a graceless buffoon, a complete political failure and a serial adulterer but he has some good points.
Sadly, Watson is a relatively unlikely casualty. Even if two-thirds of the entire Ukip vote defected to the Tories, they would still need something like a 5.6% swing against Labour on top of that to defeat him.
Even if Labour is - let us fervently hope - reduced to a rump, Watson would probably be part of it.
Could it be reduced to a rump of just Tom Watson and Jeremy Corbyn? That would be fun for them both.
First!!!! (using the Corbyn Labour meaning of "first" so actually about 150th)
What's the difference between a Labour pessimist and a Labour optimist?
A Labour pessimist says, 'Things are so terrible right now it can't possibly get any worse.'
The optimist replies, 'it will, it really will.'
(Shamelessly and adoringly ripped off from a similar joke about the Soviet system.)
The one I recall about Soviet workers was "As long as they pretend to pay us, we will pretend to work"
My favourites are all about Brezhnev. Two, just for fun before I disappear:
Brezhnev summons his astronauts and tells them that to get ahead of the Americans, they will make the first landing on the sun.
One of the astronauts demurs. 'But Comrade Brezhnev, we'll be burned up!'
'Do you think I'm an idiot?' snaps Brezhnev. 'I've thought of that. We'll time your landing to be at night.'
And - allegedly a true story:
At the Moscow Olympics in 1980 Brezhnev made a speech that lasted 45 minutes. As he walked off to thunderous applause he turned to his speechwriter and said, 'Comrade, I asked you to write a speech of 15 minutes. Why did you make it so long?'
'Well, Comrade Brezhnev,' replied his speechwriter, 'I wrote you the speech to last 15 minutes as you asked. However, you also asked me for three copies.'
And an apocryphal one about Rev Paisley ....
Paisley preaching to the crowd of believers "Come the day of JUDGEMENT! There will be a wailing and whining and a gnashing of teeth!!!"
A wee woman in the front row shouts up: "Rev Paisley! I don't have any teeth"
First!!!! (using the Corbyn Labour meaning of "first" so actually about 150th)
What's the difference between a Labour pessimist and a Labour optimist?
A Labour pessimist says, 'Things are so terrible right now it can't possibly get any worse.'
The optimist replies, 'it will, it really will.'
(Shamelessly and adoringly ripped off from a similar joke about the Soviet system.)
The one I recall about Soviet workers was "As long as they pretend to pay us, we will pretend to work"
My favourites are all about Brezhnev. Two, just for fun before I disappear:
Brezhnev summons his astronauts and tells them that to get ahead of the Americans, they will make the first landing on the sun.
One of the astronauts demurs. 'But Comrade Brezhnev, we'll be burned up!'
'Do you think I'm an idiot?' snaps Brezhnev. 'I've thought of that. We'll time your landing to be at night.'
And - allegedly a true story:
At the Moscow Olympics in 1980 Brezhnev made a speech that lasted 45 minutes. As he walked off to thunderous applause he turned to his speechwriter and said, 'Comrade, I asked you to write a speech of 15 minutes. Why did you make it so long?'
'Well, Comrade Brezhnev,' replied his speechwriter, 'I wrote you the speech to last 15 minutes as you asked. However, you also asked me for three copies.'
Brezhnev hasn't seen his dear old mum in ages, so has her flown from her village by private jet to his dacha outside Moscow. She's non committal. So a Zil cavalcade escorts her through cleared streets to his palatial office in the Kremlin. She's unmoved. Finally he flies with her to his summer palace on the Black Sea. She doesn't bat an eyelid. In desperation Brezhnev says 'well, mum, what do you think - haven't I done well?'
'It's all very good Leonid. But what happens if the Reds come back?'
Comments
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/857166014303408128
Better still if we can plant more native woodland. Helps prevent flooding too.
But I'm late joining the thread.
Good evening, everyone.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/iain-dale/iain-dales-remarkable-interview-david-ward/
https://twitter.com/BobbyIpsosMORI/status/857276083808468992
Or the BBC could buy the Spitting Image Rights from ITV and do that. I wonder what's happened to the puppets; were they auctioned off? (some people would probably pay good money for that kind of stuff).
If it ends up costing the party the seat, then kudos for Farron for taking action now.
In which case, Corbyn might legitimately point out that if he resigned, Labour would be left completely leaderless - and therefore he had to stay on at least until a new deputy leader was elected.
Mind you, even allowing for that watching everyone's least favourite bully and the most inept political fixer of all time getting hammered would be delicious. It would be like Putney '97 only much funnier because David Mellor may like Watson be a graceless buffoon, a complete political failure and a serial adulterer but he has some good points.
Business rate to go from 35 per cent to 15 per cent.
Cohn says it was 34 per cent when Ronald Reagan left office and it "hasn't changed much since".
He said: "Other countries have been aggressively cutting to attract businesses.
"We are stuck with a 1988 corporate tax and are one of the least attractive countries in the developed world.
"We are going to cut taxes to make businesses competitive and cut them for low and middle class families."
Perhaps the New Statesman is beyond reproach;
General election 2017: Why don't voters get more angry about public spending cuts?
In 2012, 61 per cent were concerned about the impact of future cuts. By 2017 this was down to 45 per cent. What happened?
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/general-election-2017-why-dont-voters-get-more-angry-about-public-spending
Sister of Rachel, wife of John Cryer MP
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/857301518873219086
Alex Salmond says General Election is a vote on indyref2
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alex-salmond-says-general-election-is-a-vote-on-indyref2-1-4430556
http://goo.gl/7cTbAf (google doc link)
15% and under 50 seats, their answer to the Liberals in 1924, isn't likely but it would be a brave person said it wasn't possible.
Those disproportionately dependent on, and thus more likely to complain about, public services include the disabled, the chronically sick, and working-age people who are long-term benefits dependent - groups that would be counted amongst the residual Labour core vote in any event.
Let's face it, if Ed Miliband could barely lay a glove on David Cameron by deploying the usual "x-number of days to save the NHS" spiel, then Corbyn almost certainly won't have any more success against May.
Even if Labour is - let us fervently hope - reduced to a rump, Watson would probably be part of it.
However, the second is a doubtful call right now, the first is looking not merely very likely but damn near certain.
https://twitter.com/torcuilbutler/status/857282813820903425
Heck, there were even people who laughed at OGH for his crazy bet of 50/1 on some unknown coloured senator from Chicago to be the next POTUS.
I agree it is not the most likely scenario. Equally, I admire your courage.
Still, if the SNP can at least be held at 45% rather than 50%, then the Green vote oughtn't to be nearly enough at a Westminster election to make up the difference.
FPT re-Exeter my old stomping ground. Much depends on how well Ben Bradshaw can withstand a Tory surge but I would caution against believing UNS here. Exeter, demographically, has changed a lot. There are much more middle-class lefties from the University and the Met Office moreover Tory Topsham was transferred to East Devon from 2010. Moreover Mr Bradshaw is very highly regarded locally. He is a good constituency MP always willing to stop and talk to his constituents either on the footbridge at St Davids station, along the quay or in his favourite curry house on Fore Street (all from personal or friends anecdotes.) Moreover he also played a key role in keeping the mighty Grecians aka Exeter City FC afloat when it seemed we might disappear. I'm vacillating between voting for Theresa May - who I think has done a good job and UKIP in order to put pressure on her to ensure a proper Brexit. Were I still in Exeter I would probably vote Labour for Ben Bradshaw for the reasons given above - nothing is more important than Brexit - except perhaps Exeter City FC..*
*Unless the election was tight then I would vote him out but since its not..
On another topic - feel sorry for Sarah Hayward missing out on the Hull West Labour PPC. I disagree with her politics but knowing her at Hull Uni (indeed sharing a house with her) she would make an excellent MP and is exactly what Labour need right now.
A Labour pessimist says, 'Things are so terrible right now it can't possibly get any worse.'
The optimist replies, 'it will, it really will.'
(Shamelessly and adoringly ripped off from a similar joke about the Soviet system.)
She used to date Tom Watson....
contested Halesowen & Rowley Regis in 2015. Works for GMB
http://www.barnsleychronicle.com/article/breaking-candidate-to-fight-election-for-labour-in-barnsley-east-revealed
What a stunningly great plan for a country with a staggeringly huge deficit. Stop collecting taxes. Duh!
These structures might in some ways best be experienced in their nooks and crannies, usually closed to the public.
For instance in the loft of the Kings College chapel there are a few symbols in the stones comprising the ceiling proper. Whether they mark guilds or individual craftsmen, or deaths even, I do not know. There is a small hole through the ceiling stonework such that, prone, putting your ear to it you can hear the music below.
The one I recall about Soviet workers was "As long as they pretend to pay us, we will pretend to work"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/26/labour-sandbags-survive-yory-tidal-wave-tactical-voting-progressive-alliances Shows why leader ratings have often been a better predictor.
How's Stephanie Flanders getting on?
There are companies like Apple sitting on mountains of cash that they're not doing anything with because if they send the money home back to America then it will cause a mammoth corporation tax liability. They've been lobbying to get a lower tax rate and then they'll bring the money home.
Better for America to take 15% of Apple's cash than none of it.
Between Apple, Microsoft, Google, Cisco and Oracle these five leading tech companies sit on half a trillion US dollars in cash. The US starting to collect tax on it will help their deficit not hurt it.
Mason 1: What're you making those marks on the stones for?
Mason 2: Because this building will last hundreds of years, and people'll always wonder what they're for.
Mason 1: So what're they for?
Mason 2: To annoy the curious.
Mason 2: Now my friend, what's that hole you've made for?
Mason 1: So I can spy on the worthy.
Mason 2: Spy?
Mason 1: Did I say spy? I meant pee.
Well, it is Cambridge.
Ireland's really in trouble if that happens.
Brezhnev summons his astronauts and tells them that to get ahead of the Americans, they will make the first landing on the sun.
One of the astronauts demurs. 'But Comrade Brezhnev, we'll be burned up!'
'Do you think I'm an idiot?' snaps Brezhnev. 'I've thought of that. We'll time your landing to be at night.'
And - allegedly a true story:
At the Moscow Olympics in 1980 Brezhnev made a speech that lasted 45 minutes. As he walked off to thunderous applause he turned to his speechwriter and said, 'Comrade, I asked you to write a speech of 15 minutes. Why did you make it so long?'
'Well, Comrade Brezhnev,' replied his speechwriter, 'I wrote you the speech to last 15 minutes as you asked. However, you also asked me for three copies.'
Brexit REVENGE: Angry Europeans to use EUROVISION to punish UK for leaving
BRITONS fear a Brexit backlash from voters on the continent as Europeans are predicted to exact their revenge on the UK through EUROVISION.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/796895/Brexit-European-Eurovision-revenge-UK-punish-EU-vote
Though I think they've been taking their 'revenge' for the best part of three decades.....
DeutscheBank is stepping up its lobbying effort, and is possibly subject to some own tangential lobbying itself to do so by individuals within the German administration.
It would be helpful if the polls turned out to be a little bit off beam again - in the Tories' favour, as is usually the case.
Of course, we're not really going to know if Labour has bottomed out at ~25% until polling day - and, on that note, the Labour Party now has 42 campaign days left to convince the people of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is something that they've always dreamt of.
https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/856839130235510784
And an apocryphal one about Rev Paisley ....
Paisley preaching to the crowd of believers "Come the day of JUDGEMENT! There will be a wailing and whining and a gnashing of teeth!!!"
A wee woman in the front row shouts up: "Rev Paisley! I don't have any teeth"
Paisley: "Teeth will be PROVIDED!!!!!!"
'It's all very good Leonid. But what happens if the Reds come back?'