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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We’ve moved sharply on from when class was the best pointer to

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We’ve moved sharply on from when class was the best pointer to voting intention

This afternoon YouGov has published a series of charts to give us an idea about the electorate who will vote on June 8th.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited April 2017
    AGE IS A CONFOUNDER FOR EDUCATION

    Or education is a confounder for age. A poll by education within the same age cohort would be informative.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Second! Like Remain....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Good evening all (and forgive repetition: I would finish typing just as the New Thread opened...)

    ***GEEKERY ALERT***

    I've just finished work on my little project: a spreadsheet to examine the effect of Ukip defections in the Conservatives' key constituencies.

    I ranked the Tories' 50 tightest defences and 150 best targets, by percentage swing needed to change hands, based on the results when they were last contested. I then looked at the effect purely of the migration of voters from Ukip to Con on these seats. I ranked them using the following descriptors:

    Highly marginal: majority 0-5%, swing of 2.5% or less needed to change hands
    Marginal: majority 5.01-10%, swing required up to 5%
    Safe: majority 10.01-20%, swing required up to 10%
    Very safe: majority 20.01% and above, swing of over 10% required

    As things currently stand, the first 26 Conservative defences listed rank as highly marginal, the remaining 24 as marginal.

    The 150 Conservative targets are as follows:

    Highly marginal: 18 Labour, 3 Lib Dem, 1 SNP
    Marginal: 23 Labour, 1 Lib Dem, 1 Ukip
    Safe: 43 Labour, 6 SNP, 2 Lib Dem, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Green
    Very safe: 44 Labour, 5 SNP

    For targets, the ranking reflects the position of the defeated Conservative candidate relative to the incumbent. In many of the safer seats, there are one or two other parties closer to the incumbent than the Tories.

    If I assign one third of the Ukip vote to the Conservatives, then 21 of their key defences become safe, 21 marginal and only 8 highly marginal. Of their targets, they gain 18 seats from Labour, 2 from the LibDems, 1 from the SNP and 1 from Ukip. Of the uncaptured targets, 30 rank as highly marginal, 19 as marginal, 51 as safe and 28 as very safe.

    If I assign one half of the Ukip vote to the Conservatives, then 1 of their key defences becomes very safe, 29 safe, 18 marginal and only 2 highly marginal. Of their targets, they gain 31 seats from Labour, 3 from the LibDems, 1 from the SNP and 1 from Ukip. Of the uncaptured targets, 26 rank as highly marginal, 22 as marginal, 53 as safe and 13 as very safe.

    If I assign two thirds of the Ukip vote to the Conservatives, then 2 of their key defences become very safe, 34 safe, 13 marginal and only 1 highly marginal. Of their targets, they gain 47 seats from Labour, 3 from the LibDems, 1 from the SNP and 1 from Ukip. Of the uncaptured targets, 20 rank as highly marginal, 25 as marginal, 41 as safe and 12 as very safe.

    These lists are intended simply to demonstrate the effect of the consolidation of the right-leaning vote under the Conservative banner alone. They take no account of the net movement of votes between any of the other parties.

    ***GEEKERY ENDS***
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The headline speaks for itself:

    "Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk

    Lender’s head of regulation says 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b950b28c-2a9e-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    And Lib Dems to Hamas supporters.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,042

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    Not the Corbyn parachuted-in guy then?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    On topic: that graph is very instructive.

    Lab/Con crossover age: 34
    Median age of UK population: just over 40
    Median age of UK electorate (i.e. discounting non-voting babies and children): probably not far short of 50

    The bulk of the electorate favours the Tories, they get more and more Tory as they get older and older (and, therefore, progressively more likely to vote as well,) and the segment that is strongly pro-Labour is the very young, who are much less numerous and largely allergic to polling booths.

    This sort of analysis makes the near 2:1 lead of Con vs Lab in most current opinion polls all the more understandable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    Surely not - Trump supporters did not win the popular vote as Tories probably will.

    And Tories still lead among the educated.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Black_Rook That's very helpful, especially since a large chunk of the Conservative surge is apparently directly from UKIP. The "two thirds defection" looks eminently possible.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    And Lib Dems to Hamas supporters.
    You are a nasty piece of work.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    Hhmm a bit of a looker.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    Hillary's deplorables?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    Not the Corbyn parachuted-in guy then?
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/857283251328733196
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    Tory canvassing:

    hts://twitter.com/andy4wm/status/857262889371131904

    Now the Tories are sweeping all before them (in the polls), is he putting the word Conservative on his leaflets now?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    The headline speaks for itself:

    "Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk

    Lender’s head of regulation says 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b950b28c-2a9e-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c

    "Could".
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Also on topic:

    "Mrs May might be considering ending the triple lock that underpins the level of state pensions which you would think would be a negative amongst the old."

    We shall see what the Tories do about that. I'd be in favour of using the political window of opportunity to get rid of it whilst older voters are stuck with an alternative PM that they loathe, but we'll see whether or not they fudge it.

    The Government could compromise by guaranteeing the triple lock for the next Parliament, but promising to conduct a review into whether or not it should be maintained thereafter? Kick the can down the road a bit...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GIN1138 said:

    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    Hillary's deplorables?
    My observation was fact based. Just compare the current Tory support-base and Trump's. You will find remarkable similarity.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2017
    yes, no Sam Tarry from Barking.

    On today's polls, with uniform swing, Labour would hold Hull West by around 14%.
    Comfortable but you can't never be sure these days. Even if anonymous, she's probably a safe pair of hands that won't attract negative publicity during the campaign.

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    Not the Corbyn parachuted-in guy then?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    And Lib Dems to Hamas supporters.
    You are a nasty piece of work.
    Irony is dead.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    And Lib Dems to Hamas supporters.
    You are a nasty piece of work.
    Truth hurts.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The headline speaks for itself:

    "Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk

    Lender’s head of regulation says 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b950b28c-2a9e-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c

    "Could".
    Yes, it could be more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    Not the Corbyn parachuted-in guy then?
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/857283251328733196
    I was kind of hoping for the worst Lab candidate possible in order to aid my very generous constituency bet, but I imagine I cannot have been too lucky.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Given these age trends, are the Labour benches packed full of people slowly realising they've made a mistake?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    But Mike, what of those who have both vast age and exceptional class? ....

    Just asking for a friend .... :sunglasses:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    kle4 said:

    Tory canvassing:

    hts://twitter.com/andy4wm/status/857262889371131904

    Now the Tories are sweeping all before them (in the polls), is he putting the word Conservative on his leaflets now?
    I think he's still standing as the John Lewis Mayor!
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    edited April 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    Hillary's deplorables?
    Now there's your "30% lead" if Corbyn does something similar, and we just know he thinks like that.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Crown Prince David Prescott can keep his powder dry till GE2022 and meanwhile get back to running his socialist property empire. He won't be required to turn up at party HQ so much after GE2017.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    Yes! Winners!
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    The headline speaks for itself:

    "Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk

    Lender’s head of regulation says 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b950b28c-2a9e-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c

    What % of UK headcount ?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    Wasn't a minute ago...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    https://www.ft.com/content/f6be0ac8-2a73-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c

    So, not at the front of the queue then ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    calum said:

    The headline speaks for itself:

    "Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk

    Lender’s head of regulation says 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b950b28c-2a9e-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c

    What % of UK headcount ?
    Out of 9000.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    Wasn't a minute ago...
    "This site is marked private by its owner. If you would like to view it, you’ll need two things:
    A WordPress.com account. Don’t have an account? All you need is an email address and password — register here!
    Permission from the site owner. Once you've created an account, log in and revisit this screen to request an invite.
    If you already have both of these, great! Log in here:
    Email or Username"
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    "This site is marked private by its owner. "
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    Wasn't a minute ago...
    Probably pre-empting the abuse she will get from the Corbynites.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    Wasn't a minute ago...
    "This site is marked private by its owner. If you would like to view it, you’ll need two things:
    A WordPress.com account. Don’t have an account? All you need is an email address and password — register here!
    Permission from the site owner. Once you've created an account, log in and revisit this screen to request an invite.
    If you already have both of these, great! Log in here:
    Email or Username"
    Same for me.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GeoffM said:

    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    Yes! Winners!
    You could be correct but nonetheless my contention has not been contradicted by anyone yet.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited April 2017

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    And Lib Dems to Hamas supporters.
    You are a nasty piece of work.
    Truth hurts.
    You would not recognise Truth if it smacked you between your eyes .
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2017
    it wasn't 5 minutes ago! Is she already updating the website? Anyway, it was the usual bland self-description.

    School teacher
    then NUT officer
    sits on Labour National Policy Forum
    Hessle town councillor
    Hull West & Hessle CLP Woman Officer

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    surbiton said:

    GeoffM said:

    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    Yes! Winners!
    You could be correct but nonetheless my contention has not been contradicted by anyone yet.
    No idea what your contention is, sorry.
    If it's just that they are both winners then Yes.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    ToryJim said:
    Potentially interesting theme. It is a bit striking that 'Corbynism' has an awful lot of McDonnell in it, and not so much Corbyn.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surbiton said:
    The Vote Leave argument was never that the EU was not worth the US making a deal with. It was that the EU was incapable of reaching a comprehensive agreement with the US due to the interests of French farmers etc and the need to appeal to the lowest common denominator.

    I don't see anything in the link to suggest that was wrong. It doesn't matter whether we're first, second or third in the queue, if we are only capable of actually getting through the gates by ourselves then that is irrelevant.

    Of course the UKIP argument was that the EU was going to agree to TTIP so leave to avoid the trade deal. I never agreed with that.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    Remarkable. The page was not protected a few minutes ago when I clicked through and read it. Other than describing the lady's political work (and in my view making her sound like someone I would hate to have to sit next to at a dinner) there was nothing about it that should have been cause for alarm. I wonder why her new minders have taken it off line.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Prodicus said:

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    Wasn't a minute ago...
    "This site is marked private by its owner. If you would like to view it, you’ll need two things:
    A WordPress.com account. Don’t have an account? All you need is an email address and password — register here!
    Permission from the site owner. Once you've created an account, log in and revisit this screen to request an invite.
    If you already have both of these, great! Log in here:
    Email or Username"
    Same for me.

    If you use The Google and select Images you'll see that she's really very milfy.
    I'd certainly rattle her until bits fell off.

    This, in the absence of the blog:
    https://uk.pinterest.com/emmaannhardy/
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    surbiton said:

    The headline speaks for itself:

    "Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk

    Lender’s head of regulation says 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b950b28c-2a9e-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c

    "Could".
    Yes, it could be more.
    Or staff could relocate to the UK. Almost anything could happen, therefore a headline that includes the word "could" does indeed speak for itself - it shows that the headline is meaningless.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    surbiton said:

    calum said:

    The headline speaks for itself:

    "Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk

    Lender’s head of regulation says 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b950b28c-2a9e-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c

    What % of UK headcount ?
    Out of 9000.
    Ouch ! - Help solve Pret's recruitment crisis !!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2017
    If Sunil is about deepest condolences. Same to S Murali
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    edited April 2017

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    Remarkable. The page was not protected a few minutes ago when I clicked through and read it. Other than describing the lady's political work (and in my view making her sound like someone I would hate to have to sit next to at a dinner) there was nothing about it that should have been cause for alarm. I wonder why her new minders have taken it off line.
    Might just be to jazz it up a little, if there's nothing obviously problematic about its content, before making public again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    Wasn't a minute ago...
    "This site is marked private by its owner. If you would like to view it, you’ll need two things:
    A WordPress.com account. Don’t have an account? All you need is an email address and password — register here!
    Permission from the site owner. Once you've created an account, log in and revisit this screen to request an invite.
    If you already have both of these, great! Log in here:
    Email or Username"
    Presumably she's just editing it to remove all mentions of her views of the Jews.

    [JOKE]
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    surbiton said:
    The Vote Leave argument was never that the EU was not worth the US making a deal with. It was that the EU was incapable of reaching a comprehensive agreement with the US due to the interests of French farmers etc and the need to appeal to the lowest common denominator.

    I don't see anything in the link to suggest that was wrong. It doesn't matter whether we're first, second or third in the queue, if we are only capable of actually getting through the gates by ourselves then that is irrelevant.
    So the Vote Leave argument is that the EU is incapable of concluding comprehensive trade agreements? A bizarre position since the feasibility of Brexit relies on it being totally wrong.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    GeoffM said:

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    "This site is marked private by its owner. "
    Google the site and look at the cached version. It looks like it had not been updated for a couple of years.
  • surbiton said:

    GeoffM said:

    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    Yes! Winners!
    You could be correct but nonetheless my contention has not been contradicted by anyone yet.
    Thats because most people ignore you
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    I despair every time I see a qualified and skilled tradesman pulling a grand a week described as 'working class' while a drone who pushes a pen or answers a telephone in an office all day long for what barely scrapes minimum wage is described as 'middle class'.

    It really does need to sink in that some people aspire to vocational and technical qualifications which earn them handsome livings, while packing everyone off to university for a life in an office increasingly downgrades many graduates to working class.

    Some people need to modernise their thinking.

    Class these days is as much about who owns what and who earns what, rather than who works with their hands and where and when people left education.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921

    If Sunil is about deepest condolences. Same to S Murali

    Thank you, SquareRoot, and thanks for everyone's kind words on the previous thread.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The Spectator's 'Unionist Tactical Voting Guide':

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/vote-save-union/
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    rcs1000 said:

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    Wasn't a minute ago...
    "This site is marked private by its owner. If you would like to view it, you’ll need two things:
    A WordPress.com account. Don’t have an account? All you need is an email address and password — register here!
    Permission from the site owner. Once you've created an account, log in and revisit this screen to request an invite.
    If you already have both of these, great! Log in here:
    Email or Username"
    Presumably she's just editing it to remove all mentions of her views of the Jews.

    [JOKE]
    If the lefty stuff on her Pinterest page is anything to go by then yes, she's probably got a bit of rapid blog sanitising to do before it can survive public scrutiny.

    I wouldn't want her sort putting ideas into the heads of our little ones; that's for sure.

    That said - I still would.
  • SeanT said:

    On a more cheerful note I am here. On a houseboat on the sunlit Loire. The world is beautiful

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/857267841636204544



    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/857287369124401152

    That is fabulous
  • Please remember that those people over 65 (i.e. those voting Tory) lived in an era when only 5-10% went to a proper university. People under 40 most likely went to an institute of tertiary education and studied mickey-mouse subjects. Screaming abuse at older people for the lack of an university education is patronising and counter-productive.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    Remarkable. The page was not protected a few minutes ago when I clicked through and read it. Other than describing the lady's political work (and in my view making her sound like someone I would hate to have to sit next to at a dinner) there was nothing about it that should have been cause for alarm. I wonder why her new minders have taken it off line.
    Probably standard procedure at present for all parties. Rushed selections for a snap election means little time for full vetting. One of several reasons that snap elections are not good practice.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2017
    SeanT said:

    On a more cheerful note I am here. On a houseboat on the sunlit Loire. The world is beautiful

    ttps://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/857267841636204544
    ttps://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/857287369124401152

    Looks wonderful - So you don’t regret choosing the Loire valley over Rome then?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    If Sunil is about deepest condolences. Same to S Murali

    Thank you, SquareRoot, and thanks for everyone's kind words on the previous thread.
    I lost my Dad at 79 I was only 39. I can only tell you that time is a great healer . I lost my wife when she was only 58. It does get easier over time. I ts nature's way. Your Dad would want you get on with your life. You never forget but you move forwards because its the only way.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    it wasn't 5 minutes ago! Is she already updating the website? Anyway, it was the usual bland self-description.

    School teacher
    then NUT officer
    sits on Labour National Policy Forum
    Hessle town councillor
    Hull West & Hessle CLP Woman Officer


    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    The usual wank of a CV that is required to get selected as a candidate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    The Spectator's 'Unionist Tactical Voting Guide':

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/vote-save-union/

    Good sound thinking, for a worthy cause.

    Not like that traitorous, patronizing progressive alliance stuff.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,921
    SeanT said:

    Heartfelt sympathies to Sunil. I have a close friend going through the same and at the weekend he was in pieces, even though his Dad made the ripe age of 87.

    Not sure anything can prepare you for it. My own folks are both in their 80s. I quail.

    Thanks, Sean.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    "Peter Kellner‏ @PeterKellner1

    Labour's only chance: copy Australian Labor Party 1983 and get new Leader BEFORE campaign #GeneralElection"
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    @Black_Rook That's very helpful, especially since a large chunk of the Conservative surge is apparently directly from UKIP. The "two thirds defection" looks eminently possible.

    Thank you. My figures come from a simple UNS swingometer so they'll take no account of facts on the ground, but nonetheless - allowing for smaller movements in some places but larger movements in others - I think they ought to give a reasonable indication of the likely effects of different scales of right-leaning voter consolidation.

    In the two-thirds scenario, not only do 52 opposition seats fall into the blue column but another 45 seats, almost all Labour-held, come fall within range of a perfectly manageable (given the apparent decline in Labour support) swing of 5% or less. If nothing radical changes between now and June 8th then this adds up to the potential for a considerable rout.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    surbiton said:
    That's unlikely for two reasons:
    1. Guardian
    2. You
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Which Tory wrote this then?

    It’s the party of posh metropolitans who defend only immigrants and people on benefits.

    The words the leadership uses have little meaning or resonance with erstwhile Labour voters. “Austerity” is empty verbiage to them, says Mattinson. Social justice, equality, fairness – these have no traction; they are abstractions that, if understood, are viewed with suspicion: more money for immigrants and people on benefits.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    If Sunil is about deepest condolences. Same to S Murali

    Thanks SquareRoot and thanks all for your condolences.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    GeoffM said:

    surbiton said:
    That's unlikely for two reasons:
    1. Guardian
    2. You
    They've had some good stuff lately.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Please remember that those people over 65 (i.e. those voting Tory) lived in an era when only 5-10% went to a proper university. People under 40 most likely went to an institute of tertiary education and studied mickey-mouse subjects. Screaming abuse at older people for the lack of an university education is patronising and counter-productive.

    Precisely. Mass access to university education is the product of socio-economic progress, not of some sudden and inexplicable quantum leap in IQ between the generations.
  • surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    Hillary's deplorables?
    My observation was fact based. Just compare the current Tory support-base and Trump's. You will find remarkable similarity.
    You mean that Corbyn's Labour, HNH and UAF are going to attack Conservative supporters when they meet at conferences????
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    murali_s said:

    If Sunil is about deepest condolences. Same to S Murali

    Thanks SquareRoot and thanks all for your condolences.
    What has happened? bad news?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    surbiton said:
    The Vote Leave argument was never that the EU was not worth the US making a deal with. It was that the EU was incapable of reaching a comprehensive agreement with the US due to the interests of French farmers etc and the need to appeal to the lowest common denominator.

    I don't see anything in the link to suggest that was wrong. It doesn't matter whether we're first, second or third in the queue, if we are only capable of actually getting through the gates by ourselves then that is irrelevant.
    So the Vote Leave argument is that the EU is incapable of concluding comprehensive trade agreements? A bizarre position since the feasibility of Brexit relies on it being totally wrong.
    The EU has been capable of concluding comprehensive agreements with its European neighbours but has struggled with major agreements from other continents yes. Thus we can leave and seek a neighbours agreement, while capable of then seeking our own agreements for those further afield.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is it possible to disentangle age and education?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    surbiton said:
    If we look specifically at Europe, the only other financial centre in the global top 20 is Luxembourg, which creeps in at 18, six places lower than last year. Frankfurt, at 23, fell four places this year, and Paris has been stuck at 29 for the last couple of surveys. So London has a huge lead in Europe [globally it's number 1]
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,757
    edited April 2017
    @murali_s @Sunil_Prasannan

    Just seen those posts. Deepest sympathy. I know how it sucks - I'm still stressing about my mum's loss 16 months on (which I realise is probably not the most helpful thing to say)! Hope you can stay strong.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    it wasn't 5 minutes ago! Is she already updating the website? Anyway, it was the usual bland self-description.

    School teacher
    then NUT officer
    sits on Labour National Policy Forum
    Hessle town councillor
    Hull West & Hessle CLP Woman Officer


    Emma Hardy selected by Labour for Hull West

    It's this woman
    https://emmaannhardy.wordpress.com/about/

    That page is marked as private.
    The usual wank of a CV that is required to get selected as a candidate.
    Sounds like a proper job, then local political roots to me.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    GeoffM said:

    surbiton said:
    That's unlikely for two reasons:
    1. Guardian
    2. You
    To be fair I think the Guardian's about the only paper that hasn't 'lost the heid' over Brexit - tho I hear the Sunday Times is still sane.....
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    The Spectator's 'Unionist Tactical Voting Guide':

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/vote-save-union/

    Soon be time to dust off all the old GE2015 charts and guides !!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Second! Like Remain....

    Ask for the thread to be re-run - you might get a better result.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    surbiton said:
    The Vote Leave argument was never that the EU was not worth the US making a deal with. It was that the EU was incapable of reaching a comprehensive agreement with the US due to the interests of French farmers etc and the need to appeal to the lowest common denominator.

    I don't see anything in the link to suggest that was wrong. It doesn't matter whether we're first, second or third in the queue, if we are only capable of actually getting through the gates by ourselves then that is irrelevant.
    So the Vote Leave argument is that the EU is incapable of concluding comprehensive trade agreements? A bizarre position since the feasibility of Brexit relies on it being totally wrong.
    The EU has been capable of concluding comprehensive agreements with its European neighbours but has struggled with major agreements from other continents yes. Thus we can leave and seek a neighbours agreement, while capable of then seeking our own agreements for those further afield.
    Presumably because as a strong, centralised state, we can tell "farmers in Wales" to get stuffed?

    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/857169809632526337
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    AndyJS said:

    Is it possible to disentangle age and education?

    It would help.

    Home tenure and having a job (or a pension earned from one) seem to be as good an indicator of vote intention as most.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Floater said:

    Second! Like Remain....

    Ask for the thread to be re-run - you might get a better result.
    Has a generation passed?
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    surbiton said:
    The Vote Leave argument was never that the EU was not worth the US making a deal with. It was that the EU was incapable of reaching a comprehensive agreement with the US due to the interests of French farmers etc and the need to appeal to the lowest common denominator.

    I don't see anything in the link to suggest that was wrong. It doesn't matter whether we're first, second or third in the queue, if we are only capable of actually getting through the gates by ourselves then that is irrelevant.
    So the Vote Leave argument is that the EU is incapable of concluding comprehensive trade agreements? A bizarre position since the feasibility of Brexit relies on it being totally wrong.
    The EU has been capable of concluding comprehensive agreements with its European neighbours but has struggled with major agreements from other continents yes. Thus we can leave and seek a neighbours agreement, while capable of then seeking our own agreements for those further afield.
    Presumably because as a strong, centralised state, we can tell "farmers in Wales" to get stuffed?

    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/857169809632526337
    Funnily enough, that's just the kind of deal that Canada agreed to.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    The headline speaks for itself:

    "Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk

    Lender’s head of regulation says 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b950b28c-2a9e-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c

    "Could".
    Remind me of the headlines just after Brexit, how many jobs were going to go - what happened then?

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    murali_s said:

    If Sunil is about deepest condolences. Same to S Murali

    Thanks SquareRoot and thanks all for your condolences.
    What has happened? bad news?
    Sunil lost his father at the weekend, Murali recently too. They both posted about it on the last thread, and a lot of regulars said a lot of nice things. It's worth reading back.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Am I the only person who thinks that David Ward looks like he could be Tim Farron's dad ?

    I think its fair to say that after the days of homophobia discussions followed by a hostility to Jews sacking things have not got off to the desired start for the LibDems.

    You can get 20/1 on the Conservatives in Bradford East - I've no idea if that's value but its a constituency where the candidate can have a big effect and the Conservatives weren't too far off winning in 2010.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    GeoffM said:

    surbiton said:

    The Tory supporters now can be compared to Trump supporters.

    Yes! Winners!
    Amusingly it's Corbyn who is copying Trump tactics.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    surbiton said:
    The Vote Leave argument was never that the EU was not worth the US making a deal with. It was that the EU was incapable of reaching a comprehensive agreement with the US due to the interests of French farmers etc and the need to appeal to the lowest common denominator.

    I don't see anything in the link to suggest that was wrong. It doesn't matter whether we're first, second or third in the queue, if we are only capable of actually getting through the gates by ourselves then that is irrelevant.
    So the Vote Leave argument is that the EU is incapable of concluding comprehensive trade agreements? A bizarre position since the feasibility of Brexit relies on it being totally wrong.
    The EU has been capable of concluding comprehensive agreements with its European neighbours but has struggled with major agreements from other continents yes. Thus we can leave and seek a neighbours agreement, while capable of then seeking our own agreements for those further afield.
    Presumably because as a strong, centralised state, we can tell "farmers in Wales" to get stuffed?

    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/857169809632526337
    That much is obvious. A free trade deal with Oz, NZ or Canada is going to mean cheap imported food. Good for consumers, less good for our farmers and landscape.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,757
    GeoffM said:

    surbiton said:
    That's unlikely for two reasons:
    1. Guardian
    2. You
    He is right though. I'd recommend having a read. Admittedly I would normally assume that anything said by a senior figure at RBS was worthless, but he makes some good points on Britain's attractions as a financial centre and the risks - not all of them European.

    And it's worth reading if only for that wonderfully sarcastic final sentence!
This discussion has been closed.