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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first phone poll of the campaign has UKIP down to 4% and the Tories at 49%
This morning, in the London Evening Standard, we have the first telephone poll of the general election campaign. The figures are very much in line with the other polls that we’ve seen in the last week.
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Theresa is crap, Dave got 52% with Ipsos MORI.0
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Yes, but the Conservatives were sometimes behind Corbyn's Labour under Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa is crap, Dave got 52% with Ipsos MORI.
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For Justin, the Tory lead is only 15% when all voters are taken into account.0
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If the Con share gets any bigger on the pie chart it'll be a cross between a smurf and Pacman.0
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Oh god we are back to margaret from Margate type questions...0
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That was part of Dave and George's masterful strategy to SaveJez.Sean_F said:
Yes, but the Conservatives were sometimes behind Corbyn's Labour under Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa is crap, Dave got 52% with Ipsos MORI.
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Don't worry, it may well be the last time.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh god we are back to margaret from Margate type questions...
But never underestimate Corbyn's ability to cling on to the dying corpse he's leading.0 -
Kim Jong may just laying out how they are going to bury jezza with his team's mad thoughts on abolishing MI5, disarming the plod, etc etc etc0
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Baxtering these figures, and Panelbase's for Scotland, gives the Conservatives 420 seats, and 156 for Labour.0
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Corbyn auditioning for a job as a public sector union official.0
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Oh dear, Clive Lewis has dug himself into an even bigger hole over that polling 'analysis'
https://twitter.com/1000cuts/status/857186026896465920
https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/8571880756168335360 -
Kim Jong may has been doing some prep for this PMQs and jezza has just walked into it.0
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This poll is very significant for the reasons Mike gives in the header - it's not dependent on past-vote weighting (which might be very unreliable in the current political climate), and it's not an online poll. It addition, we have the leadership ratings. The fact that it confirms what the other pollsters are showing is a strong indication that the polling figures we're seeing are likely to be reliable.0
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Can you answer this question me, what colour would a smurf turn if you tried to strangle it?Morris_Dancer said:If the Con share gets any bigger on the pie chart it'll be a cross between a smurf and Pacman.
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Quite a sensible strategy, making it a bit more difficult for May to ignore the issues raised by the public and simply churn out her prepared attack lines.JosiasJessop said:
Don't worry, it may well be the last time.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh god we are back to margaret from Margate type questions...
But never underestimate Corbyn's ability to cling on to the dying corpse he's leading.0 -
Mr. Eagles, I was annoyed when I couldn't use "The sky was bluer than a drowning smurf" in Sir Edric's Adventures (too modern).
Edited extra bit: almost as irksome as when I had to axe: "That's about as tempting an offer as a handjob from Edward Scissorhands."0 -
It does seems all the people who write to jezza are public sector workers. Not a lot of small business owners.chestnut said:Corbyn auditioning for a job as a public sector union official.
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Corbyn: "she writes with a heavy heart."
Surely that'll make a bit of a mess of the paper?0 -
Rigged system.....0
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How do phone polls work (randomly) nowadays when younger people increasingly don't bother to have a landline and there isn't any real directory of mobile numbers?Richard_Nabavi said:This poll is very significant for the reasons Mike gives in the header - it's not dependent on past-vote weighting (which might be very unreliable in the current political climate), and it's not an online poll. It addition, we have the leadership ratings. The fact that it confirms what the other pollsters are showing is a strong indication that the polling figures we're seeing are likely to be reliable.
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Dear God, is this really Corbyn's last pitch at PMQs.
Just begone, begone.0 -
Perhaps you should try a different genre?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I was annoyed when I couldn't use "The sky was bluer than a drowning smurf" in Sir Edric's Adventures (too modern).
Edited extra bit: almost as irksome as when I had to axe: "That's about as tempting an offer as a handjob from Edward Scissorhands."0 -
This poll is a load of bollocks. No way are Labour going to fall back by only 5% from the tally of Ed the Magnificent....0
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Sybil? Maureen? lol0
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This is truly terrible....0
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The question all those who wish Lbour well are asking is 'why hasn't Corbyn commited seppuku?'0
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Corbyn has found an 88 year old who would vote for him! Remarkable.0
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I heard that as 'I like Corbyn's butt' and went to the scary visual place.0
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http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/BookEndsFrancisUrquhart said:Oh god we are back to margaret from Margate type questions...
Matching scenes at the beginning and end of a story, often to show how things have changed through the course of the series, or to demonstrate that they haven't changed at all.0 -
Complete knock out by Theresa
Be gone Corbyn, you are a national disgrace0 -
I like Corbyn's Butts and i cannot lie?TheScreamingEagles said:I heard that as 'I like Corbyn's butt' and went to the scary visual place.
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He hasn't finished the task he was given by the blessed Margaret:Roger said:The question all thoe who wish Lbour well are asking is why hasn't Corbyn commited seppuku?
From the Downing Street confidential files, 5th May 1983:
MT: So, my friend, it is the election next month.
JC: Yes.
MT: And you have managed to complete the first stage of your task: to gain the candidature for Islington North?
JC: Yes ma'am, overwhelmingly.
MT: Good, good. (Shuffles in her handbag and checks her makeup in a mirror). I called you in here to confirm you know the mission.
JC: I am to destroy the Labour party.
MT: Not destroy. Annihilate. Eradicate.
JC: But if I may, ma'am, how? I will be just one MP.
MT: Oh, do keep up JC! They said you were one of our brightest agents!
JC: It seems an impossible task ma'am. I'll be just one MP against many.
MT: Just one male MP, you mean. It's not as though Labour will ever elect a female leader!
(laughter)
MT: No, we are playing the long game. One of my predecessors put the current Labour leader in place, and he's doing a fine job in destroying his party. It's really a sterling job. Of course I've been helped by the deal I did with the General over that bit of nonsense last year. (winks)
(more laughter)
MT: No, we have to play the long game. As good as the present incumbent is, he's not performed well enough. The Labour Party will arise, and will become a power. We have plans to stifle their popularity: perhaps a war in a far-off country, perhaps over oil? How about Iraq? Yes, that'll do. We'll wait for a really popular Labour PM to come along, and drop the WMD-bomb. Not a real bomb, obviously.
JC: Not yet, ma'am!
(more laughter)
MT: And you will, of course, be against the war. You will be a figurehead of the far-left of the party, along with agent Benn. You'll bide your time, creeping amongst the shadows, building support. We all know what the far-left are like: the more stupid, the more implausible the policy, the more they like it!
JC: I've had an idea, ma'am. How about ballistic missile submarines without any missiles?
MT: Oh I say! That's rather excellent! Perhaps you are as bright as MI5 claim.
JC: Thank you, ma'am. So I wait, for what?
MT: For the moment when a popular Labour leader mucks up - with a little help from us, of course. You can help: undermine them; vote against them: the best thing is they'll expect you to do it!
(starts to file her claws)
MT: And then, at the right moment, strike! Go for the leadership! Become leader of the Labour party and make them unelectable! Destroy them! Annihilate them in Scotland! Obliterate them in Wales! Smash them in the cities! Make another Labour government an impossibility!
JC: Very good, ma'am. But how about the alliance?
MT: (laughs). Oh don't worry, we have a plan for them as well! The thing with the dog worked well, didn't it?0 -
Jeremy from Islington writes ....JosiasJessop said:Corbyn: "she writes with a heavy heart."
Surely that'll make a bit of a mess of the paper?0 -
Did Corbyn really let he 'he's a terrorist sympathiser' jibe just wash over him?0
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"Clearly the main feature of this campaign has been Labour’s inability to break out of the mid-20s..."
As soon as Corbyn gets out meeting people I'm fairly sure they'll no longer be in the mid-20s.0 -
Mr. Rex, it's not common for me to have a modern line, and there lots of great fantasy and historical ones.
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A Diane Abbot moment for you.TheScreamingEagles said:I heard that as 'I like Corbyn's butt' and went to the scary visual place.
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Even Abbot smirked.TheScreamingEagles said:I heard that as 'I like Corbyn's butt' and went to the scary visual place.
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Yup.Slackbladder said:Did Corbyn really let he 'he's a terrorist sympathiser' jibe just wash over him?
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Corbyn getting angry is not a pretty or electable sight. This couldn't have gone better for TMay.0
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Terrible numbers for UKIP. Their problem is that the Tories have seized Brexit and UKIP have yet to find a distinctive voice. The Lib Dems have the repeal-Brexit constituency sewn up, so perhaps UKIP could reinvent themselves as the champions of a more liberal, soft, cosmopolitan Brexit. I'd vote for them if they did!0
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Sounds like PMQs will be worth a look when I get home.0
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May doesn't seem very good at talking and thinking simultaneously0
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Continuing my thoughts from previous thread, you can get Labour 100 - 149 seats at 2.66 on Betfair right now if you fancy it, but for me the really good odds are in the Con Majority section.Pulpstar said:
No chance Labour gets over 150 if the Tories really do hit 49%.Sean_F said:Baxtering these figures, and Panelbase's for Scotland, gives the Conservatives 420 seats, and 156 for Labour.
If Labour fall beneath 150 seats the Con majority is almost certainly over 175, you can currently get odds on Con Majority on Betfair:
175 - 199 at 8
200 - 224 at 11
225 - 250 at 10.5
Worth a punt? I've stuck a few quid on, just in case.
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Both May and Corbyn are poor at this. C.f. with Blair and Hague.0
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Not long ago the opposition parties were moaning that the youngsters were having to pay for austerity and rich pensioners were getting perk after perk - now those perks may be taken away its cruel and nasty0
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Ipso Mori poll 26/05/1983 Con 51 Lab 29 All 19 overstated Conservatives by 8%0
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May demolished Corbyn today.murali_s said:Both May and Corbyn are poor at this. C.f. with Blair and Hague.
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Not sure why the Tories are still available at 5/1 and 10/1 in West Bromwich West and West Bromwich East.
The combined Tory/UKIP is at c.45% and Sandwell voted over 66% to Leave.
If I were Tom Watson, I'd be very worried.0 -
The wait for a Con 30% will have to continue a bit longer...
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It doesn't help that UKIP is led by a hopeless knob.Stark_Dawning said:Terrible numbers for UKIP. Their problem is that the Tories have seized Brexit and UKIP have yet to find a distinctive voice. The Lib Dems have the repeal-Brexit constituency sewn up, so perhaps UKIP could reinvent themselves as the champions of a more liberal, soft, cosmopolitan Brexit. I'd vote for them if they did!
You can say what you like about Farage, he wasn't hopeless.
Just a knob.0 -
But all the polls are now much in line.MarkSenior said:Ipso Mori poll 26/05/1983 Con 51 Lab 29 All 19 overstated Conservatives by 8%
I cannot see any result other than a conservative majority but accept caution is needed on it's size.
However, there must be a chance of a labour wipeout and if the move is copied in Scotland and Wales the Lib Dems may not make much headway0 -
What is difference between headline voting intention and all giving a voting intention? I notice the Tory share is 49 on headline but 45 on the all giving intention?0
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I've bought Tories on the spreads at 384 and have a few hundred over various numbers.kyf_100 said:
Continuing my thoughts from previous thread, you can get Labour 100 - 149 seats at 2.66 on Betfair right now if you fancy it, but for me the really good odds are in the Con Majority section.Pulpstar said:
No chance Labour gets over 150 if the Tories really do hit 49%.Sean_F said:Baxtering these figures, and Panelbase's for Scotland, gives the Conservatives 420 seats, and 156 for Labour.
If Labour fall beneath 150 seats the Con majority is almost certainly over 175, you can currently get odds on Con Majority on Betfair:
175 - 199 at 8
200 - 224 at 11
225 - 250 at 10.5
Worth a punt? I've stuck a few quid on, just in case.0 -
Incumbency and (Deputy) Leaders get a boost.Casino_Royale said:Not sure why the Tories are still available at 5/1 and 10/1 in West Bromwich West and West Bromwich East.
The combined Tory/UKIP is at c.45% and Sandwell voted over 66% to Leave.
If I were Tom Watson, I'd be very worried.0 -
They whittle it down by "how likely are they to actually vote".rogerh said:What is difference between headline voting intention and all giving a voting intention? I notice the Tory share is 49 on headline but 45 on the all giving intention?
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Mr. Royale, looking at the results from last time, I'm inclined to agree. Especially for West Bromwich West:
2015 - Lab 16.5k
UKIP 8.8k
Con 8.3k
Huge purple vote to eat into, Labour likely to decline.
Edited extra bit: anyway, must be off.0 -
LOL! Pehaps the Clactonians will suggest it when the BBC next do a vox pop there.Stark_Dawning said:Terrible numbers for UKIP. Their problem is that the Tories have seized Brexit and UKIP have yet to find a distinctive voice. The Lib Dems have the repeal-Brexit constituency sewn up, so perhaps UKIP could reinvent themselves as the champions of a more liberal, soft, cosmopolitan Brexit. I'd vote for them if they did!
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Labour supporters must be counting the days - Labour's annihilation, Jezza's resultant removal and the processes of rebuilding can't come soon enough.0
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If I were Tom Watson, my wife would be even more worried....Casino_Royale said:Not sure why the Tories are still available at 5/1 and 10/1 in West Bromwich West and West Bromwich East.
The combined Tory/UKIP is at c.45% and Sandwell voted over 66% to Leave.
If I were Tom Watson, I'd be very worried.0 -
Mr. Dawning, if UKIP were to continue as a political party after their reason for being was accomplished then they would have had to start moving into new areas last June. As I said on here at the time their best hope would have been to stake out the concerns of the working classes as their territory but, as I also predicted, they did not have the will or the ability to do so. Too late now.Stark_Dawning said:Terrible numbers for UKIP. Their problem is that the Tories have seized Brexit and UKIP have yet to find a distinctive voice. The Lib Dems have the repeal-Brexit constituency sewn up, so perhaps UKIP could reinvent themselves as the champions of a more liberal, soft, cosmopolitan Brexit. I'd vote for them if they did!
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They were all in line in 1983 average Conservative overstatement in final polls was 4%Big_G_NorthWales said:
But all the polls are now much in line.MarkSenior said:Ipso Mori poll 26/05/1983 Con 51 Lab 29 All 19 overstated Conservatives by 8%
I cannot see any result other than a conservative majority but accept caution is needed on it's size.
However, there must be a chance of a labour wipeout and if the move is copied in Scotland and Wales the Lib Dems may not make much headway0 -
Plug!!
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Wish I were a cartoonist. I see a bedraggled, mad-eyed Zombie Corbyn determinedly dragging the mangled corpse of Labour, by the heels, into the western sunset, an oblivious expression on his face and trampling hundreds of Stop the War coalition placards as he goes.0
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Midlands subsamples are consistently coming in with the Tories in the high 50s, even low 60s.Casino_Royale said:Not sure why the Tories are still available at 5/1 and 10/1 in West Bromwich West and West Bromwich East.
The combined Tory/UKIP is at c.45% and Sandwell voted over 66% to Leave.
If I were Tom Watson, I'd be very worried.
Labour are going to get hammered in middle England if these are repeated on June 8th.
Handful of seats in Birmingham, Leicester, Nottingham.0 -
Seats like this in the West Midlands will go before numerically lower majority seats in the North East, IMHO.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, looking at the results from last time, I'm inclined to agree. Especially for West Bromwich West:
2015 - Lab 16.5k
UKIP 8.8k
Con 8.3k
Huge purple vote to eat into, Labour likely to decline.
Edited extra bit: anyway, must be off.0 -
Or even separatelyIanB2 said:May doesn't seem very good at talking and thinking simultaneously
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These sort of leads wouldn't have happened under Dave because his team made it very clear they didn't want UKIP's votes.Sean_F said:
Yes, but the Conservatives were sometimes behind Corbyn's Labour under Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa is crap, Dave got 52% with Ipsos MORI.
So they didn't get UKIP's votes.0 -
Yet she seems to have huge poll ratings and is very likely to re-elected with a bigger majority.PeterMannion said:
Or even separatelyIanB2 said:May doesn't seem very good at talking and thinking simultaneously
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Maybe but it is not just the polls. There is a substantial volume of evidence in media reporting across the UK and indeed labour themselves are expecting heavy lossesMarkSenior said:
They were all in line in 1983 average Conservative overstatement in final polls was 4%Big_G_NorthWales said:
But all the polls are now much in line.MarkSenior said:Ipso Mori poll 26/05/1983 Con 51 Lab 29 All 19 overstated Conservatives by 8%
I cannot see any result other than a conservative majority but accept caution is needed on it's size.
However, there must be a chance of a labour wipeout and if the move is copied in Scotland and Wales the Lib Dems may not make much headway0 -
So we now have the re-toxification of the Tory party? Bigots and racists flocking to the blue banner then? OK...Casino_Royale said:
These sort of leads wouldn't have happened under Dave because his team made it very clear they didn't want UKIP's votes.Sean_F said:
Yes, but the Conservatives were sometimes behind Corbyn's Labour under Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa is crap, Dave got 52% with Ipsos MORI.
So they didn't get UKIP's votes.0 -
Corbynista Bouattia ousted from NUS chair. Straw in the wind.0
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That's your prejudice, not mine.murali_s said:
So we now have the re-toxification of the Tory party? Bigots and racists flocking to the blue banner then? OK...Casino_Royale said:
These sort of leads wouldn't have happened under Dave because his team made it very clear they didn't want UKIP's votes.Sean_F said:
Yes, but the Conservatives were sometimes behind Corbyn's Labour under Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa is crap, Dave got 52% with Ipsos MORI.
So they didn't get UKIP's votes.
You have UKIP voters voting for a PM who brought in gay marriage and will maintain international aid. But, she also treats them with respect and will deliver Brexit and immigration control, so they are happy to support her.0 -
Sir Eric Pickles uses his last PMQ to slam Tim Farron.0
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@MrHarryCole: E Pickles goes nuclear on David Ward with his last ever questions to the Commons. Suspect Mr Ward won't be candidate by the end of the day.0
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No deal would be catastrophic. Everyone bar a few right-wing nutters, both here and outside acknowledge this.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/857198352353636352
Because it's Bollocks0 -
Of course Labour are heading for a big defeat but IMHO Cons at 43-45 is much more likely than 48-50Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe but it is not just the polls. There is a substantial volume of evidence in media reporting across the UK and indeed labour themselves are expecting heavy lossesMarkSenior said:
They were all in line in 1983 average Conservative overstatement in final polls was 4%Big_G_NorthWales said:
But all the polls are now much in line.MarkSenior said:Ipso Mori poll 26/05/1983 Con 51 Lab 29 All 19 overstated Conservatives by 8%
I cannot see any result other than a conservative majority but accept caution is needed on it's size.
However, there must be a chance of a labour wipeout and if the move is copied in Scotland and Wales the Lib Dems may not make much headway0 -
Then Tim Farron is called...0
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The dwindling band of SLAB supporters I know are starting to shift - in general older voters breaking for SCON - younger for SNP - no interest in LDs/Greens !!0
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Aren't you happy? If all those bigots and racists are flocking to the Conservatives then, surely, the Labour vote will go up.murali_s said:
So we now have the re-toxification of the Tory party? Bigots and racists flocking to the blue banner then? OK...Casino_Royale said:
These sort of leads wouldn't have happened under Dave because his team made it very clear they didn't want UKIP's votes.Sean_F said:
Yes, but the Conservatives were sometimes behind Corbyn's Labour under Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa is crap, Dave got 52% with Ipsos MORI.
So they didn't get UKIP's votes.0 -
...after Eric Pickles berates the LibDems for their Bradford candidate. And the PM kicks him in the nuts about it.Scott_P said:Then Tim Farron is called...
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Vague words - what the f*ck does immigration control mean? What does Brexit mean? You don;t know, I don;t know, no-one knows.Casino_Royale said:
That's your prejudice, not mine.murali_s said:
So we now have the re-toxification of the Tory party? Bigots and racists flocking to the blue banner then? OK...Casino_Royale said:
These sort of leads wouldn't have happened under Dave because his team made it very clear they didn't want UKIP's votes.Sean_F said:
Yes, but the Conservatives were sometimes behind Corbyn's Labour under Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa is crap, Dave got 52% with Ipsos MORI.
So they didn't get UKIP's votes.
You have UKIP voters voting for a PM who brought in gay marriage and will maintain international aid. But, she also treats them with respect and will deliver Brexit and immigration control, so they are happy to support her.0 -
@jessicaelgot: PM goes for @timfarron over selection of David Ward in Bradford East "questionable record on antisemitism."How long can LDs let this run on?
@steve_hawkes: Tim Farron looks like he'd rather go back to answering questions about gay sex0 -
In time, my dear friend. In time....HurstLlama said:
Aren't you happy? If all those bigots and racists are flocking to the Conservatives then, surely, the Labour vote will go up.murali_s said:
So we now have the re-toxification of the Tory party? Bigots and racists flocking to the blue banner then? OK...Casino_Royale said:
These sort of leads wouldn't have happened under Dave because his team made it very clear they didn't want UKIP's votes.Sean_F said:
Yes, but the Conservatives were sometimes behind Corbyn's Labour under Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa is crap, Dave got 52% with Ipsos MORI.
So they didn't get UKIP's votes.0 -
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This will 30 mins PMQs will last nearly 60mins0
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Questions on gay sex and antisemitism are going to be a disaster for himScott_P said:@jessicaelgot: PM goes for @timfarron over selection of David Ward in Bradford East "questionable record on antisemitism."How long can LDs let this run on?
@steve_hawkes: Tim Farron looks like he'd rather go back to answering questions about gay sex0 -
Looks like the Speaker is calling everyone who is standing down. Will finish about half four....0
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In reality, they just aren't going to do that.Stark_Dawning said:Terrible numbers for UKIP. Their problem is that the Tories have seized Brexit and UKIP have yet to find a distinctive voice. The Lib Dems have the repeal-Brexit constituency sewn up, so perhaps UKIP could reinvent themselves as the champions of a more liberal, soft, cosmopolitan Brexit. I'd vote for them if they did!
Carswell was the voice of the "it's not about immigration, it's about sovereignty" brigade. He, and others like him, have signalled "mission accomplished" and returned to the Tories or left the scene.
It is all, in Cameron's ill-advised phrase, "fruitcakes, loonies, and closet racists" now, albeit increasingly not that well closeted. Their time may come again, although I fervently hope not, but I just don't see how it can (in practice) be as anything other than the BNP in blazers - that's the path they've chosen collectively.0 -
Apparently he's planning to stand against Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/8572012923594629160 -
Wow.brokenwheel said:Stay classy NUS.
https://twitter.com/Ned_Donovan/status/8571960481582161920 -
As PMQs is the biggest opportunity for Bercow to grandstand, could he be about to announce his departure after a final flourish?MarqueeMark said:Looks like the Speaker is calling everyone who is standing down. Will finish about half four....
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Re West Bromwich East, that's my home constituency (I'm in a neighbouring Brum constituency but my mom still lives there). May be it's just history but I still can't see it not being Labour which it has been all my life. My mother cannot abide Watson but he has the profile provided by Dep Leader & is visible in the constituency despite presumably being busy with party stuff. I know Scotland 2015 and all that but they had the SNP to vote for. If UKIP had got its act together to take on Labour in its heartlands like they said they would then maybe but a direct switch of a lot of WWC voters to the Tories in what is tbh a bit of a rough place - as I say I' m not convinced. DYOR and throw this advice back in my face in June by all means.0
