politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First wave of French second round polling gives it to Macron b

Scott_P said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TNS tipping point, subsequent polls outliers obviously.

https://twitter.com/scottynational/status/856772646150840320

Amazing* how one poll becomes 'polls' and polls become 'one poll showing increase'.

*not even slightly amazing.


Of course we all remember those febrile days after the Brexit referendum, though some have no doubt drunk deeply of the TRuthy Kool Aid in an effort to forget.

'Posts: 21,367
June 25
JackW said:

4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.

5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.

6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.

SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.

Nice to see you Jack
I agree on all 3 points.'


Wait a minute, who's this guy?!

'*****_* Posts: 21,352
June 25
williamglenn said:
At this point it's not inconceivable, although unlikely, that Scottish independence could happen without a referendum and with the consent of Westminster.

Westminster would be insane to refuse, which is why people like Bernard Jenkin are talking about it'


I guess some people have principles while others have tribal (if malleable) loyalties.

llef said:

public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP).

We could join the Euro! Or not.

Scott_P said:

I wonder why the SNP are now desperately screaming that this vote is NOT about independence...?

https://twitter.com/rossthomsonmsp/status/856790162906509313

Got any actual policies?

GIN1138 said:

dyedwoolie said:

Laughable as the concept may be, Sunderland Central to go to a recount Tctc about 12.30 election night?

The Sunderland seats will tell us right from the start of Election Night just how bad it's going to be for Labour...

Sunderland Central is interesting. Con plus kipper are close to Labour, 8% swing from 2010 would take it, 13.5% swing from 2015 with a fat kipper vote to squeeze. Tories within 5% and it's south of 150 for Corbyn, Tory gain and it's ELE?

Slackbladder said:

It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.

UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.

Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016

RobD said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

RobD said:

geoffw said:

SouthamObserver said:

geoffw said:

Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).

One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere.
Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.
The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/

The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.

Macron is bad news for Brexit.

If he is bad news for Brexit, then Le Pen would be an unmitigated disaster!

Sorry, Rob, don't quite follow the logic.

Le Pen is anti-EU, so her election would be a serious blow to it, no? So how would that be a disaster for Brexit? Doesn't she just add her name to the list of prominent anti-Eu leaders, such as Trump and Putin?

Negotiating an exit deal is going to be hard enough. Negotiating one while France is also agitating to leave would be far worse.

Well, maybe Rod, but it seems obvious to me we will only get such terms as the other side want us to have, so it probably doesn't make that much difference.

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

calum said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39703393

The allegations are believed to involve a five-figure sum of money.
It is understood the charges against Ms McGarry also relate to her involvement with the SNP Glasgow Regional Association.

'Brave' of Nicola to mention police investigations into Tories when there have already been charges made of an SNP-elected MP.......

The difference being the SNP removed them even before any charges were laid while the Conservatives are bravely standing by their MPs.

Innocent until proven guilty?

No Tories have been charged yet, let alone tried.....

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

I wonder why the SNP are now desperately screaming that this vote is NOT about independence...?

Got any actual policies?

Given the demographic trends in support for independence, that kind of slogan might be counter-productive. It makes it sound like a 'No' from a strict parent, who furthermore is a Conservative.

RobD said:

Wait, you forgot IndyRef2!

That is NOT an SNP policy at this election. Unless you vote SNP, in which case you were voting for it, right?

SouthamObserver said:

dyedwoolie said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.

Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.

I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere

I can see the Conservatives winning Vauxhall with 35% of the vote perhaps.

That would certainly count as jaw dropping. Decapitation Of Keir Starmer would constitute a genuine Portillo moment on many levels. Can't see Dobbos stomping ground going blue though!

I think Starmer's majority might actually go up. There is no way on earth he is going to lose. You can quote me on that :-)

I hope that's right, I'm on him for next leader.

Scott_P said:

I wonder why the SNP are now desperately screaming that this vote is NOT about independence...?

twitter.com/rossthomsonmsp/status/856790162906509313

Not everyone got the memo:

https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856612770070056960

Mind you, hardly anyone reads the Nat Onal anymore, so probably no harm done.....

Peter_the_Punter said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

Incidentally, there was some airy discussion earlier about fascism amongst FN supporters. Obviously all parties have their proto-nazis but on my fairly regular trips to France (usually around Aude and Roussillon) I've always had the impression that the goose-step was a fairly popular dance. In fact I think I'd be right in saying that a map of FN hotspots would be fairly congruent with one of wartime Vichy.

N'est ce pas, ou non, mon vieux?

In my opinion, the FN is not fascist or anything else because it has basically no structured ideology. It has one strong message: opposition to immigration, especially of North-African and Subsaharan origin.
Beyond that, nothing is really clear. The FN has alternated between strong anti-tax, pro-market policies and (more recently) very statist ones. It supports both a strong central government and strong local powers, both promoting a single French identity and supporting regional traditions...

All in all it's a protest party, with a great ability of pretending to share the priorities of many different groups. It is certainly a racist, unpleasant bunch.

Now regarding your point about Vichy. The initial Front national of the 70ies was certainly a bedrock of Vichy nostalgia. Jean-Marie Le Pen and friends loved to sing WWII era songs and were at the time much more antisemitic than anti-islam.
But these people were always a very tiny minority. The FN managed to get bigger when it lost this focus on the past and concentrated on the resentment created by massive North-African immigration in the 1970ies and 1980ies, using very well the hurt feelings of the vétérans of the Algerian war and of the Pieds Noirs (the 1.5 million European evacuated from Algeria in 1962).
One other strong difference is that the FN never got much support from the Catholic Church, unlike Vichy.

dyedwoolie said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.

Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.

I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere

Bolsover would be nice.

Is there any legal/technical impediment that would stop either David Miliband or Ed Balls standing against Corbyn in Islington?

david_herdson said:

dyedwoolie said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.

Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.

I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere

Bolsover would be nice.

Islington South. Lib Dem gain. That would be a jaw dropper.

foxinsoxuk said:

Razedabode said:

I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.

While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.

Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.

This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.

That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.

Scott_P said:

Is there any legal/technical impediment that would stop either David Miliband or Ed Balls standing against Corbyn in Islington?

Yes. The Labour Party rule book says you get expelled from the party if you stand against an official Labour candidate.

Scott_P said:

Is there any legal/technical impediment that would stop either David Miliband or Ed Balls standing against Corbyn in Islington?

They'd be expelled from the Labour Party and they'd lose the election anyway.

logical_song said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

May local election forecast (change since 2013)

Rallings and Thrasher

CON +115 LD +85 LAB -75 UKIP -105

Tories need to crank #OperationSaveJezza into life in these local elections.

Labour losing 75 councillors won't be enough to get rid of Corbyn in time for the GE only 5 weeks later.

They'll lose a lot more than 75 - IIRC that's just the England numbers (maybe England and Wales?), not including Scotland.

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Trump really does not want people visiting the US, does he?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/25/us-considers-banning-laptops-on-flights-from-uk-airports

Well in fairness the 'shoe bomber' was British, albeit boarded in Paris.....

Why is there no similar restriction on the London Underground? Why no security searches at Hampstead, Holborn and Harrow? You can't exactly say there's never been an incident.

Maybe it's because Londoners take the entirely reasonable views that the risk is small and not worth the aggravation. Terrorism is a terrible thing, but the number of lives lost to it in the UK and the US is smaller than that attributable to a number of far more tractable problems - e.g. gun crime in the US and road deaths here.

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Slackbladder said:

It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.

UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.

Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016

I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.

Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.

Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.

Sky data poll on EU migrant real is surprising. Labour on the worse side of the argument by offering unconditional right to remain for EU citizens.

With no mention of party positions, majority opposed unconditional. Majority wanted EU rights if only reciprocal agreement for UK citizens in EU ie Tory policy.

llef said:

ons numbers published today

Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.

Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?

kle4 said:

logical_song said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Slackbladder said:

It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.

UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.

Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016

I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.

Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.

Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.

If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.

Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.

She isn't the only one that changes her mind.

kle4 said:

logical_song said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Slackbladder said:

It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.

UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.

Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016

I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.

Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.

Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.

If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.

She could have given her pre-referendum speech a few twists and turned it into a message of 'on balance I support leaving, but remaining would be fine if we had a PM who wasn't a gaylording ponceyboots'.

murali_s said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

murali_s said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

murali_s said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

REVISED Rallings and Thrasher NEV projections (change on 2013):

CON 35 (+9)
LAB 29 (=)
LD 21 (+8)
UKIP 8 (-14)

What does NEV mean? Is it something like if L 40, C 20, LD 20 in London then L 30, C 55, LD 15 Nationally?

National equivalent share of the vote.

Basically what would the VI look like if there was a general election based on the result of the locals.

Thanks TSE. So Labour only only 6 % behind? Wow!

Expect a lot of overreaction, one way or another, if the locals are not as bad for Lab/not as good for Con as the national polls look right now.

PB Tories 4 Corbyn would rejoice at such news!

Jeez, the PB Tories are flat track bullies!

That's a good thing for your side, murali - it means when things get tough, they won't know how to respond.

Jaw-dropping Conservative gains? How about Doncaster North?

AlastairMeeks said:

Jaw-dropping Conservative gains? How about Doncaster North?

"Ed Miliband moment"

kle4 said:

Roger said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Razedabode said:

I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.

While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.

Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.

This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.

That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.

Since the EU is the most cultured, benevolent and noble organisation on earth, all part from the UK united in being so cultured and benevolent, I don't see why they cannot collectively come to such a decision very quickly indeed.
Or are other nations in the EU still beholden to pettier national concerns? Surely not.

Since they're clearly better than us I'm astonished us tawdry grubby Brits have not been set an example by them so we'd know how to behave among civilised nations. It's a mystery.....

Gallowgate said:

llef said:

ons numbers published today

Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.

Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?

In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.

AlastairMeeks said:

Jaw-dropping Conservative gains? How about Doncaster North?

My gut on that is that there may be some wavering Labour sympathy for Ed, enough to keep him afloat. 'Things Weren't so bad with good old Ed'

dyedwoolie said:

kle4 said:

CommanderShepard said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

SimonStClare said:

‘That Woman’ will rue the day she decided to play politics north of the border...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856651768838664192?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4813/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-farage-might-be-giving-ge2017-a-miss-but-expect-to-see-him-on/p1

Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?

That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.

I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in Scotland

12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.

I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmic

The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/856799650791256068

CommanderShepard said:

dyedwoolie said:

kle4 said:

CommanderShepard said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

SimonStClare said:

‘That Woman’ will rue the day she decided to play politics north of the border...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856651768838664192?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4813/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-farage-might-be-giving-ge2017-a-miss-but-expect-to-see-him-on/p1

Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?

That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.

I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in Scotland

12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.

I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmic

The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)

I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/856800182511575040

prh47bridge said:

Gallowgate said:

llef said:

ons numbers published today

Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.

Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?

In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.

An eye-watering sum.

Ishmael_Z said:

Floater said:

RobD said:

Roger said:

The french are walking with a spring in their step. Great news for France. Great news for Europe.

.......Not so great for May or the Tories

With the far right candidate at 40% in the polls? Okay.

It's ok, they have more museums than us.

tm Roger - Champagne Socialist who doesn't mind a country that votes for a distinctly right candidate - as long as it's not here.

I am certain that the echo of "Springtime for Hitler and Germany" in Roger's post was unintentional.

An opportunity I couldn't pass up....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPXHRX8Q2hs

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/856799650791256068

And so it begins...

@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats

Starmer is a boring and monotonous speaker but he also looks defeated.

Very subdued applause as well

The death throws of labour in full sight

Scott_P said:

@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats

I can see that parachute failing to open...

RobD said:

prh47bridge said:

Gallowgate said:

llef said:

ons numbers published today

Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.

Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?

In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.

An eye-watering sum.

Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.

Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/856799650791256068

And so it begins...

Coming to a Facebook feed near you...

Pong said:

RobD said:

prh47bridge said:

Gallowgate said:

llef said:

ons numbers published today

Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.

Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?

In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.

An eye-watering sum.

Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.

Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.

A double-whammy for the next generation. Nice.

CarlottaVance said:

The Sun, taking its usual measured approach:

Disaster for Nicola Sturgeon as just one in four Scots support fresh independence vote next year

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3407224/blow-for-nicola-sturgeon-as-just-one-in-four-scots-support-fresh-independence-vote-next-year/

But she wants a vote in 2019.

dyedwoolie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Starmer is a boring and monotonous speaker but he also looks defeated.

Very subdued applause as well

The death throws of labour in full sight

Maybe he saw the results of the sky data poll just before he went on? And found the key offer he was about to announce has a majority against it.

Sky given up on him as he starts to waffle.

Anything they announce will get the same treatment, the electorate has decided if it's red it doesn't want it. The danger for Labour is this getting as bad as Scotland 2015, and they find themselves getting 10-30% just about everywhere and almost nothing to show for it.

The sky data poll was asked pre the labour announcement and without any mention of which party.