Labour to unilaterally guarantee EU citizens' rights.
But then, when asked at some point during the campaign, Corbyn will no doubt happily say he will let anybody who wants to come here to his Socialist Utopia have similar rights.
When that shoe falls, expect another 4% off Labour's polling....
Most likely.
I'm starting to wonder if their aim is to finish off the Lib Dems.
This policy is aimed fair and square at Remainers and they won't let up on Farron's religious convictions. Tuition fees and Tories' little helpers must come into it soon.
Having the LibDems achieve an equally shit result would be about Labour's best hope coming out of this election. If they still outnumber LibDems 10:1 in seats, then they can regroup.
Anybody else spot this wonderful typo in The Times yesterday? "Sir Eric, 65, the MP for Brentwood & Ongar is expected to take a a seat in the Lords as part of Mrs May's disillusion honours list...."
I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.
I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion.
Whether Macron proves to be good for France only time will tell. I recall Ed Miliband acclaiming Hollande as the future for Europe once and he proved pathetic, even with a party to back him in the Parliament. The resistance to change in France is immense and probably needed a Fillon rather than a Macron to drive it through but he turned out to be a crook. A more dynamic France would be good for them and good for us too. I wish him well but remain sanguine.
The hyperbole about the UK since the Leave vote has truly been something to behold.
Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right flank, most of the main centre 3rd party and is about to eat a slice of the centre-left too.
The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.
There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.
I think it barely matters what labour says or promises now. Damien Green on Sky just summed it up in a nutshell
'Do you want a Jeremy Corbyn Government negotiating Brexit or Theresa May'
There were strong hints yesterday that it is that question that is driving the current polling.
And, as usual, the population are right. We are about to enter very important and difficult negotiations that require serious thought and no little strategic skill. We need a solid and reliable PM to oversee that. There are times (struggling to think when to be honest) when we could indulge ourselves with something like Corbyn. These are the antithesis of that.
The best the opposition can do is point at Boris, Davis and Fox and express some reservations. Even if you share those reservations look at the team behind Corbyn. This is the most clear cut no brainer of an election I can recall in my adult life. Foot in 83 or Kinnock in 87 were serious players compared to this. Labour have given us this choice and they will pay the consequences for their self indulgence.
imho this election has become a referendum on Corbyn. Labour are going to be shellacked.
The difference between France and Britain couldn't be clearer.
Here, a strong Brexit-promoting right-wing female has a >20% lead in the polls over her male socialist rival.
Across the Channel, a pro-EU male liberal socialist has a >20% lead in the polls over his right-wing female rival.
It is highly unlikely that either May or Macron will lose. That does not augur well for future negotiations between the UK and the EU.
Actually they are very similar
In both countries a new leader committed to the constitutional order has a 20% lead over rivals who would tear down the system to implement their extreme world views regardless of the consequences
A Investment banker should be able to negotiate the smooth transfer of City traders to Paris with a minimum of disruption to their capitalist endeavours.
Right after he's repealed the 35h working week......
Quoted from the Guardian. Also applies in the UK after Brexit, where all the main politicians including May, Sturgeon and Corbyn are on the side of the nationalists, patriots and sovereigntists. Only Farron might be on the globalist, cosmopolitan and pro-European side of the argument and he is unable to articulate an idea in the way Macron or Blair could.
Sylvain Crépon, a sociologist specialising in the Front National, has an astute take on the Macron-Le Pen face-off for Libération:
Of all the candidates Marine Le Pen could have faced in the second round, Emmanuel Macron is the one who is projected to beat her the most convincingly. For all that, he is the candidate that she would most like to confront.
To understand why, we need to return to the FN’s project of reconfiguring French democracy around the question of identity ... It wants the principle divide to be between those attached to national identity (nationalists, patriots, souverainists) and those who seek to destroy it (globalists, cosmopolitans, pro-Europeans).
If Le Pen can replace a supposedly outmoded left-right divide based on economic and social criteria with with this new division, she can present her party as the one true alternative to what she describes as a system of “uncontrolled globalisation”. And that is a system of which Emmanuel Macron is the perfect incarnation.
Mr. Notme, quite. It'll be presented as hanging British citizens out to dry.
I do think a majority want a deal done to lift the sword of Damocles from the heads of EU citizens here, but as part of corresponding guarantees for British citizens in the EU.
Labour to unilaterally guarantee EU citizens' rights.
But then, when asked at some point during the campaign, Corbyn will no doubt happily say he will let anybody who wants to come here to his Socialist Utopia have similar rights.
When that shoe falls, expect another 4% off Labour's polling....
Most likely.
I'm starting to wonder if their aim is to finish off the Lib Dems.
This policy is aimed fair and square at Remainers and they won't let up on Farron's religious convictions. Tuition fees and Tories' little helpers must come into it soon.
Having the LibDems achieve an equally shit result would be about Labour's best hope coming out of this election. If they still outnumber LibDems 10:1 in seats, then they can regroup.
That's the dog that's not barking so far. I would have expected the omnishambles that is Labour to have driven a search for an alternative.
If the Lib Dems had been going into this election with 40 MPs rather than 9 it might have been very different. I think their foot print is just too small to have the impact they probably should. They are also very focussed on getting lost seats back from the Tories. On current polling that is not where the easy pickings are, it really isn't.
I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.
I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion.
Whether Macron proves to be good for France only time will tell. I recall Ed Miliband acclaiming Hollande as the future for Europe once and he proved pathetic, even with a party to back him in the Parliament. The resistance to change in France is immense and probably needed a Fillon rather than a Macron to drive it through but he turned out to be a crook. A more dynamic France would be good for them and good for us too. I wish him well but remain sanguine.
The hyperbole about the UK since the Leave vote has truly been something to behold.
Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right flank, most of the main centre 3rd party and is about to eat a slice of the centre-left too.
The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.
There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.
There's nothing moderate about a party that won't distance itself from those who call judges the enemies of the people and who describe citizens who disagree with them as saboteurs.
I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.
I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion.
Whether Macron proves to be good for France only time will tell. I recall Ed Miliband acclaiming Hollande as the future for Europe once and he proved pathetic, even with a party to back him in the Parliament. The resistance to change in France is immense and probably needed a Fillon rather than a Macron to drive it through but he turned out to be a crook. A more dynamic France would be good for them and good for us too. I wish him well but remain sanguine.
The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.
There is a core discipline that understands that none of it actually matters unless you are in government (most recent example Cameron & the coalition offer) - and even then if your greatest of leaders in a generation looks like a threat to staying in power - out she went!
I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.
I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion. main sanguine.
The hyperbole about the UK since the Leave vote has truly been something to behold.
Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right flank, most of the main centre 3rd party and is about to eat a slice of the centre-left too.
The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.
There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.
There's nothing moderate about a party that won't distance itself from those who call judges the enemies of the people and who describe citizens who disagree with them as saboteurs.
There's nothing moderate about a party that didn't write a newspaper headline.
I think it barely matters what labour says or promises now. Damien Green on Sky just summed it up in a nutshell
'Do you want a Jeremy Corbyn Government negotiating Brexit or Theresa May'
There were strong hints yesterday that it is that question that is driving the current polling.
And, as usual, the population are right. We are about to enter very important and difficult negotiations that require serious thought and no little strategic skill. We need a solid and reliable PM to oversee that. There are times (struggling to think when to be honest) when we could indulge ourselves with something like Corbyn. These are the antithesis of that.
The best the opposition can do is point at Boris, Davis and Fox and express some reservations. Even if you share those reservations look at the team behind Corbyn. This is the most clear cut no brainer of an election I can recall in my adult life. Foot in 83 or Kinnock in 87 were serious players compared to this. Labour have given us this choice and they will pay the consequences for their self indulgence.
imho this election has become a referendum on Corbyn. Labour are going to be shellacked.
I agree but it is the Brexit negotiations that are driving that choice. And being perceived to be giving away negotiating cards for nothing is not exactly going to help in that overall assessment regardless of the rights and wrongs of that particular issue.
Mr. Notme, quite. It'll be presented as hanging British citizens out to dry.
I do think a majority want a deal done to lift the sword of Damocles from the heads of EU citizens here, but as part of corresponding guarantees for British citizens in the EU.
Absolutely. If the policy is as it was presented on LBC, then they seem to actually want to lose. Nothing else makes sense.
If the Conservatives are hoping for up to 14, they must be including seats like Pontypridd!
How is the Labour leave vote distributed amongst the various Welsh seats in 2015. That is the key to solving this conundrum I think
Not sure I can be arsed modelling that.
I've attempted to do so - the UKIP vote is obviously basic a leave vote. I think kipper remainers will be roughly uniformly distributed. Similiarly the Tory vote, - I Reckon that is basically (sort of) uniformly distributed amongst the seats.
But the Labour vote - I have it as a [30,10] split in Cardiff Central and a [25,27] split in Swansea East to get back to [22,15] in Wales nationally this gets back to roughly 60% of the Welsh Labour vote being 'remain'. I'm wondering if this isn't nearly sharp enough. Anecdotally I reckon the Labour leave/remain vote is massively correlated with class.
Rules of thumb, such as you've suggested, should be good enough. Particularly in an election like this where time is short, the campaign rapid, and betting opportunities last for a nanosecond.
The seats I have going blue are as follows
Monmouth -> Newport East (18 seats, which I think every model will have as turning on the welsh numbers, no seats going Labour or any other colour.
Ynys Môn 6% ahead of the Nats, Labour 3rd. {Lowest winning % of 35} Cardiff West 6% ahead of Lab Cardiff South & Penarth 6% ahead of Lab Torfaen 6% ahead of Lab Carmarthen East & Dinefwr JUST behind the Nats. Swansea West 1% behind Labour Dwyfor Meirionnydd 1.5% behind the nats.
Owen Smith can breath a sigh of relief if my model is correct, he is seat 26 and looks 6% out of reach.
Lib Dem gain Cardiff West, hold Ceredigion comfortably.
I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.
I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion.
Whether Macron proves to be good for France only time will tell. I recall Ed Miliband acclaiming Hollande as the future for Europe once and he proved pathetic, even with a party to back him in the Parliament. The resistance to change in France is immense and probably needed a Fillon rather than a Macron to drive it through but he turned out to be a crook. A more dynamic France would be good for them and good for us too. I wish him well but remain sanguine.
The hyperbole about the UK since the Leave vote has truly been something to behold.
Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right flank, most of the main centre 3rd party and is about to eat a slice of the centre-left too.
The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.
There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.
There's nothing moderate about a party that won't distance itself from those who call judges the enemies of the people and who describe citizens who disagree with them as saboteurs.
Has anyone factored in how EU pronouncements over the next 6.5 weeks might help May?
They are agreeing their initial negotiating position by the end of the month. I suspect that will provide something for May to rally the troops behind that she can make hay with throughout the (month of) May.
I don't see it making much difference.
The Tories are essentially having a free run at the 55% who voted Leave in England and Wales.
Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Plaid are in a bidding war for the 45% who voted Remain.
The SNP have a near free run at the Sindies 44%, while the Tories are gradually winning the battle with Labour and the Libs for the Unionist 56%.
The referendum divides are overwhelmingly benefitting the Tories.
The Conservatives are in a very sweet spot. Lots of Leave voters are converging on them, and they retain plenty of their Remainers.
The interesting thing is, it has happened by accident. Accident of Cameron and Osborne not been able to win their own referendum. Then May becoming leader by virtual coronation. May who is a politician who most people have heard off, but don't know much about. What they do know is "She sounds like one of us and believes in what we believe."
There is a core discipline that understands that none of it actually matters unless you are in government (most recent example Cameron & the coalition offer) - and even then if your greatest of leaders in a generation looks like a threat to staying in power - out she went!
The Tories are simply much better at politics than their opponents. Labour on the other hand are now giving a master class on how not to do it.
If the Conservatives are hoping for up to 14, they must be including seats like Pontypridd!
How is the Labour leave vote distributed amongst the various Welsh seats in 2015. That is the key to solving this conundrum I think
Not sure I can be arsed modelling that.
I've attempted to do so - the UKIP vote is obviously basic a leave vote. I think kipper remainers will be roughly uniformly distributed. Similiarly the Tory vote, - I Reckon that is basically (sort of) uniformly distributed amongst the seats.
But the Labour vote - I have it as a [30,10] split in Cardiff Central and a [25,27] split in Swansea East to get back to [22,15] in Wales nationally this gets back to roughly 60% of the Welsh Labour vote being 'remain'. I'm wondering if this isn't nearly sharp enough. Anecdotally I reckon the Labour leave/remain vote is massively correlated with class.
Rules of thumb, such as you've suggested, should be good enough. Particularly in an election like this where time is short, the campaign rapid, and betting opportunities last for a nanosecond.
The seats I have going blue are as follows
Monmouth -> Newport East (18 seats, which I think every model will have as turning on the welsh numbers, no seats going Labour or any other colour.
Ynys Môn 6% ahead of the Nats, Labour 3rd. {Lowest winning % of 35} Cardiff West 6% ahead of Lab Cardiff South & Penarth 6% ahead of Lab Torfaen 6% ahead of Lab Carmarthen East & Dinefwr JUST behind the Nats. Swansea West 1% behind Labour Dwyfor Meirionnydd 1.5% behind the nats.
Owen Smith can breath a sigh of relief if my model is correct, he is seat 26 and looks 6% out of reach.
Lib Dem gain Cardiff West, hold Ceredigion comfortably.
Quoted from the Guardian. Also applies in the UK after Brexit, where all the main politicians including May, Sturgeon and Corbyn are on the side of the nationalists, patriots and sovereigntists. Only Farron might be on the globalist, cosmopolitan and pro-European side of the argument and he is unable to articulate an idea in the way Macron or Blair could.
Sylvain Crépon, a sociologist specialising in the Front National, has an astute take on the Macron-Le Pen face-off for Libération:
Of all the candidates Marine Le Pen could have faced in the second round, Emmanuel Macron is the one who is projected to beat her the most convincingly. For all that, he is the candidate that she would most like to confront.
To understand why, we need to return to the FN’s project of reconfiguring French democracy around the question of identity ... It wants the principle divide to be between those attached to national identity (nationalists, patriots, souverainists) and those who seek to destroy it (globalists, cosmopolitans, pro-Europeans).
If Le Pen can replace a supposedly outmoded left-right divide based on economic and social criteria with with this new division, she can present her party as the one true alternative to what she describes as a system of “uncontrolled globalisation”. And that is a system of which Emmanuel Macron is the perfect incarnation.
Starmer drowning on Today. Trying and failing to square the circle. We want single market access outside the EU? Simple - EEA membership via EFTA. There is no alternative if we want full access.
Say so! Stop waffling! And to the "we voted to leave" argument its simple, as on a leaflet we have already produced said the issue has been settled by the British people - we are leaving and the issue is what we do next.
Unfortunately Starmer appears to have just finished the interview saying we won't leave without a good deal...
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.
I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion.
Whether Macron proves to be good for France only time will tell. I recall Ed Miliband acclaiming Hollande as the future for Europe once and he proved pathetic, even with a party to back him in the Parliament. The resistance to change in France is immense and probably needed a Fillon rather than a Macron to drive it through but he turned out to be a crook. A more dynamic France would be good for them and good for us too. I wish him well but remain sanguine.
The hyperbole about the UK since the Leave vote has truly been something to behold.
Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right flank, most of the main centre 3rd party and is about to eat a slice of the centre-left too.
The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.
There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.
There's nothing moderate about a party that won't distance itself from those who call judges the enemies of the people and who describe citizens who disagree with them as saboteurs.
There is nothing moderate about Governments telling the press what they can and cannot print. Works equally when anyone complains about BBC bias. If you don't like the newspaper, the news outlet, the TV programme, don't buy it or turn over to NETFLIX or HBO and binge watch your favourite show.
Starmer drowning on Today. Trying and failing to square the circle. We want single market access outside the EU? Simple - EEA membership via EFTA. There is no alternative if we want full access.
Say so! Stop waffling! And to the "we voted to leave" argument its simple, as on a leaflet we have already produced said the issue has been settled by the British people - we are leaving and the issue is what we do next.
Unfortunately Starmer appears to have just finished the interview saying we won't leave without a good deal...
There are 37 seats on the Conservative target list where, if all of the other votes remained exactly as they were, the defection of 50% of the 2015 Ukip vote would be enough to win on its own.
These run from City of Chester all the way down to Mansfield (majority 11.26%.) Apart from Clacton, they're all currently held by (at least nominally) Remain-supporting parties.
There are also a whole bunch of others, which I've not had time to quantify this morning - including some which are nominally much safer than Mansfield - which become marginal under these circumstances.
Nearly all of the constituencies in both categories are Labour. More evidence to suggest that a heavy defeat is probably on the way for the party.
And my daily reminder: Labour now has 44 campaign days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and enabled by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is something to be celebrated.
I don't think anyone considers Labour 'a Remain supporting party'.
But does anyone consider Labour a Leave supporting party ?
Actually I think some Remainers do and likewise some Leavers consider Labour a Remain supporting party.
Quoted from the Guardian. Also applies in the UK after Brexit, where all the main politicians including May, Sturgeon and Corbyn are on the side of the nationalists, patriots and sovereigntists. Only Farron might be on the globalist, cosmopolitan and pro-European side of the argument and he is unable to articulate an idea in the way Macron or Blair could.
Sylvain Crépon, a sociologist specialising in the Front National, has an astute take on the Macron-Le Pen face-off for Libération:
Of all the candidates Marine Le Pen could have faced in the second round, Emmanuel Macron is the one who is projected to beat her the most convincingly. For all that, he is the candidate that she would most like to confront.
To understand why, we need to return to the FN’s project of reconfiguring French democracy around the question of identity ... It wants the principle divide to be between those attached to national identity (nationalists, patriots, souverainists) and those who seek to destroy it (globalists, cosmopolitans, pro-Europeans).
If Le Pen can replace a supposedly outmoded left-right divide based on economic and social criteria with with this new division, she can present her party as the one true alternative to what she describes as a system of “uncontrolled globalisation”. And that is a system of which Emmanuel Macron is the perfect incarnation.
I'd have thought Le Pen wants to face off against Macron because of the easy dirty tricks campaign based on his alleged closet homosexual relationship with some CEO.
I would have thought the first thing to ask the guy from Kantar Polling is why it take ONE MONTH from the start of their polling period for his stuff to see the light of day. Their survey dates (which took a bit of digging) are between MARCH 29th and April 11th. In peacetime this is just about acceptable. In an election period when polls come thick and fast it makes them of little more than historic interest.
We have had three more recent full polls in Scotland from BMG, Survation and Panelbase all thee of which show independence support RISING from their previous surveys at 49 per cent , 45 per cent and 47 per cent respectively. This means that rather there has been an independence surge since the start of April or much more likely the Kantar poll is simply a rougue which happens from time to time.
Now I understand why Ruth Davidson, some one called Roden (who I thought worked for her but turns out to be a Labour press officer!) and the usual suspects in the unionist press in Scotland want to present Kantar as a "new poll" but it simply is not.
What is less obvious is why people on this site which is meant to be an exchange of information as well as opinions don't want to reveal that the poll which they are bigging up turns out to be weeks old and overtaken by THREE other surveys two of which were taken in the last few days since the election announcement.
Starmer drowning on Today. Trying and failing to square the circle. We want single market access outside the EU? Simple - EEA membership via EFTA. There is no alternative if we want full access.
Say so! Stop waffling! And to the "we voted to leave" argument its simple, as on a leaflet we have already produced said the issue has been settled by the British people - we are leaving and the issue is what we do next.
Unfortunately Starmer appears to have just finished the interview saying we won't leave without a good deal...
All Labour candidates are having similar problems. Yesterday it was Chris Bryant floundering.The interviewer asked if he supported his leader's view on XXXX and the interview collapsed into giggles. Until they find a way round these unstoppable force into immovabe object questions they'll continue to look ridiculous.
I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.
I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion.
Whether Macron proves to be good for France only time will tell. I recall Ed Miliband acclaiming Hollande as the future for Europe once and he proved pathetic, even with a party to back him in the Parliament. The resistance to change in France is immense and probably needed a Fillon rather than a Macron to drive it through but he turned out to be a crook. A more dynamic France would be good for them and good for us too. I wish him well but remain sanguine.
The hyperbole about the UK since the Leave vote has truly been something to behold.
Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right flank, most of the main centre 3rd party and is about to eat a slice of the centre-left too.
The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.
There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.
There's nothing moderate about a party that won't distance itself from those who call judges the enemies of the people and who describe citizens who disagree with them as saboteurs.
There is nothing moderate about Governments telling the press what they can and cannot print. Works equally when anyone complains about BBC bias. If you don't like the newspaper, the news outlet, the TV programme, don't buy it or turn over to NETFLIX or HBO and binge watch your favourite show.
Except when you are forced to pay for biased lefty BBC nonsense under threat of a fine, imprisonment and getting a criminal record even if you never watch it.
Scots coming to their senses and whatever shine there was on ms Sturgeon is rapidly tarnishing. The more people hear her grating voice the less they will like it
I would have thought the first thing to ask the guy from Kantar Polling is why it take ONE MONTH from the start of their polling period for his stuff to see the light of day. Their survey dates (which took a bit of digging) are between MARCH 29th and April 11th. In peacetime this is just about acceptable. In an election period when polls come thick and fast it makes them of little more than historic interest.
We have had three more recent full polls in Scotland from BMG, Survation and Panelbase all thee of which show independence support RISING from their previous surveys at 49 per cent , 45 per cent and 47 per cent respectively. This means that rather there has been an independence surge since the start of April or much more likely the Kantar poll is simply a rougue which happens from time to time.
Now I understand why Ruth Davidson, some one called Roden (who I thought worked for her but turns out to be a Labour press officer!) and the usual suspects in the unionist press in Scotland want to present Kantar as a "new poll" but it simply is not.
What is less obvious is why people on this site which is meant to be an exchange of information as well as opinions don't want to reveal that the poll which they are bigging up turns out to be weeks old and overtaken by THREE other surveys two of which were taken in the last few days since the election announcement.
No comment on the poll that only a quarter of Scots support Sturgeon's position?
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
Blair giving up the Rebate in return for vague talk about reforming the CAP can be used to counter ideas of unilateral concessions.
Does anyone know how much the cumulative Rebate reduction now amounts to after a decade ?
Must be a very significant sounding sum - rather more than £350m a week for a year I'd guess.
I would have thought the first thing to ask the guy from Kantar Polling is why it take ONE MONTH from the start of their polling period for his stuff to see the light of day. Their survey dates (which took a bit of digging) are between MARCH 29th and April 11th. In peacetime this is just about acceptable. In an election period when polls come thick and fast it makes them of little more than historic interest.
We have had three more recent full polls in Scotland from BMG, Survation and Panelbase all thee of which show independence support RISING from their previous surveys at 49 per cent , 45 per cent and 47 per cent respectively. This means that rather there has been an independence surge since the start of April or much more likely the Kantar poll is simply a rougue which happens from time to time.
Now I understand why Ruth Davidson, some one called Roden (who I thought worked for her but turns out to be a Labour press officer!) and the usual suspects in the unionist press in Scotland want to present Kantar as a "new poll" but it simply is not.
What is less obvious is why people on this site which is meant to be an exchange of information as well as opinions don't want to reveal that the poll which they are bigging up turns out to be weeks old and overtaken by THREE other surveys two of which were taken in the last few days since the election announcement.
Because TNS do face to face polling, which generally takes longer to conduct.
Jeez, don't you know anything about Scottish independence polling?
The difference between France and Britain couldn't be clearer.
Here, a strong Brexit-promoting right-wing female has a >20% lead in the polls over her male socialist rival.
Across the Channel, a pro-EU male liberal socialist has a >20% lead in the polls over his right-wing female rival.
It is highly unlikely that either May or Macron will lose. That does not augur well for future negotiations between the UK and the EU.
In a French context May actually represents Fillon voters plus Le Pen voters plus a few Macron voters, Corbyn represents Melenchon and Hamon voters, Farron Macron voters and Nuttall Le Pen voters. May has also met Macron at 10 Downing Street
I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.
I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion.
Whether Macron proves to be good for France only time will tell. I recall Ed Miliband acclaiming Hollande as the future for Europe once and he proved pathetic, even with a party to back him in the Parliament. The resistance to change in France is immense and probably needed a Fillon rather than a Macron to drive it through but he turned out to be a crook. A more dynamic France would be good for them and good for us too. I wish him well but remain sanguine.
The hyperbole about the UK since the Leave vote has truly been something to behold.
Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right flank, most of the main centre 3rd party and is about to eat a slice of the centre-left too.
The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.
There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.
There's nothing moderate about a party that won't distance itself from those who call judges the enemies of the people and who describe citizens who disagree with them as saboteurs.
There is nothing moderate about Governments telling the press what they can and cannot print. Works equally when anyone complains about BBC bias. If you don't like the newspaper, the news outlet, the TV programme, don't buy it or turn over to NETFLIX or HBO and binge watch your favourite show.
Indeed. The fact that Meeks can seriously point to a couple of newspaper headlines as evidence of how the Conservative Party is not moderate shows how he has lost any sense of proportion.
It is generally not the practice of Government to critique press headlines, which tend to hyperbole in Britain. Nothing new in that. What is new is the demand from certain sections of the so-called liberal elite that Cabinet Ministers should spend their time condemning newspapers.
Most people are interested in policy and substance, not rhetoric. And if they were interested in rhetoric they would judge a party by the rhetoric of its leaders, not that of a few of its press supporters.
Off topic, but I thought I'd give you an exchange I had with a pollster last night.
If it is all about leadership ratings and trust on the economy, and you reverse engineer the VI from that using 2015 as a baseline, the Tory lead should be in the mid 30s.
Labour to unilaterally guarantee EU citizens' rights.
But then, when asked at some point during the campaign, Corbyn will no doubt happily say he will let anybody who wants to come here to his Socialist Utopia have similar rights.
When that shoe falls, expect another 4% off Labour's polling....
Most likely.
I'm starting to wonder if their aim is to finish off the Lib Dems.
This policy is aimed fair and square at Remainers and they won't let up on Farron's religious convictions. Tuition fees and Tories' little helpers must come into it soon.
Having the LibDems achieve an equally shit result would be about Labour's best hope coming out of this election. If they still outnumber LibDems 10:1 in seats, then they can regroup.
That's the dog that's not barking so far. I would have expected the omnishambles that is Labour to have driven a search for an alternative.
If the Lib Dems had been going into this election with 40 MPs rather than 9 it might have been very different. I think their foot print is just too small to have the impact they probably should. They are also very focussed on getting lost seats back from the Tories. On current polling that is not where the easy pickings are, it really isn't.
The LibDems were badly wrong-footed by the early election (as we are seeing by several candidates in target seats going "er...not now!". They have one policy - to defy the will of the people who voted for Brexit. Beyond that, they needed another three years for Brexit to have happened and been a shit-fest - or to quietly drop it and move on with a raft of other policies. And, possibly, a better leader...
Only a quarter of Scots support Nicola Sturgeon’s call for a second independence referendum to be held between autumn next year and spring 2019, a poll has indicated.
At total of 26 per cent backed the timetable while 46 per cent believed there should not be another vote on leaving the UK at all.
The research, in the Kantar Scottish Opinion Monitor, also suggested a weakening in support for independence, with 60 per cent backing staying in the UK and 40 per cent wanting Scotland to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
There are 37 seats on the Conservative target list where, if all of the other votes remained exactly as they were, the defection of 50% of the 2015 Ukip vote would be enough to win on its own.
These run from City of Chester all the way down to Mansfield (majority 11.26%.) Apart from Clacton, they're all currently held by (at least nominally) Remain-supporting parties.
There are also a whole bunch of others, which I've not had time to quantify this morning - including some which are nominally much safer than Mansfield - which become marginal under these circumstances.
Nearly all of the constituencies in both categories are Labour. More evidence to suggest that a heavy defeat is probably on the way for the party.
And my daily reminder: Labour now has 44 campaign days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and enabled by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is something to be celebrated.
I don't think anyone considers Labour 'a Remain supporting party'.
But does anyone consider Labour a Leave supporting party ?
Actually I think some Remainers do and likewise some Leavers consider Labour a Remain supporting party.
Labour's positioning is not good.
If they could get away with that it would be brilliant!
On topic, I still think (fear) we're one terrorist attack away from President Le Pen.
Though as someone told me yesterday to the French, it's probably now like being in the UK in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s, regular IRA attacks are priced in to life.
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
EU = good, UK = bad seems to be about the depth of the thinking on that point.
I would have thought the first thing to ask the guy from Kantar Polling is why it take ONE MONTH from the start of their polling period for his stuff to see the light of day. Their survey dates (which took a bit of digging) are between MARCH 29th and April 11th. In peacetime this is just about acceptable. In an election period when polls come thick and fast it makes them of little more than historic interest.
We have had three more recent full polls in Scotland from BMG, Survation and Panelbase all thee of which show independence support RISING from their previous surveys at 49 per cent , 45 per cent and 47 per cent respectively. This means that rather there has been an independence surge since the start of April or much more likely the Kantar poll is simply a rougue which happens from time to time.
Now I understand why Ruth Davidson, some one called Roden (who I thought worked for her but turns out to be a Labour press officer!) and the usual suspects in the unionist press in Scotland want to present Kantar as a "new poll" but it simply is not.
What is less obvious is why people on this site which is meant to be an exchange of information as well as opinions don't want to reveal that the poll which they are bigging up turns out to be weeks old and overtaken by THREE other surveys two of which were taken in the last few days since the election announcement.
Because TNS do face to face polling, which generally takes longer to conduct.
Jeez, don't you know anything about Scottish independence polling?
TNS did very well with the EU referendum, finishing with 51/49 Leave.
So, Labour apparantly guaranteing the rights of EU nationals with nothing in return and apparantly (if I understand correctly) we will not leave if we don't get the right deal...........
I would have thought the first thing to ask the guy from Kantar Polling is why it take ONE MONTH from the start of their polling period for his stuff to see the light of day. Their survey dates (which took a bit of digging) are between MARCH 29th and April 11th. In peacetime this is just about acceptable. In an election period when polls come thick and fast it makes them of little more than historic interest.
We have had three more recent full polls in Scotland from BMG, Survation and Panelbase all thee of which show independence support RISING from their previous surveys at 49 per cent , 45 per cent and 47 per cent respectively. This means that rather there has been an independence surge since the start of April or much more likely the Kantar poll is simply a rougue which happens from time to time.
Now I understand why Ruth Davidson, some one called Roden (who I thought worked for her but turns out to be a Labour press officer!) and the usual suspects in the unionist press in Scotland want to present Kantar as a "new poll" but it simply is not.
What is less obvious is why people on this site which is meant to be an exchange of information as well as opinions don't want to reveal that the poll which they are bigging up turns out to be weeks old and overtaken by THREE other surveys two of which were taken in the last few days since the election announcement.
Because TNS do face to face polling, which generally takes longer to conduct.
Jeez, don't you know anything about Scottish independence polling?
Has anyone factored in how EU pronouncements over the next 6.5 weeks might help May?
They are agreeing their initial negotiating position by the end of the month. I suspect that will provide something for May to rally the troops behind that she can make hay with throughout the (month of) May.
Labour's helping by unilaterally guaranteeing EU citizens in the UK's rights without any reciprocal promise for UK citizens in the EU.
Wonder how that will go down with the Brits abroad?
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Typical...There is rarely a Welsh thread on PB and whenever there is I am travelling somewhere and miss it.... So some belated commnets::
Firstly - Wow...expected something like this but not as dramatic. But some more detailed thoughts...:
This poll was taken (purely conincidentally) just when the GE announcement was made, and the media was full of confident strident Teresa in comparison to bumbling Comrade Corbyn. I expect the gap to narrow.
Specifically with the Local elections coming first there should be gains for Plaid and LDs which will get their faces back in public domain and identify locally where there is a non-Conservative option to Corbyn.
Plaid and to a lesser extent LDs will get more TV coverage during GE itself because of fair coverage rules. UKIP will also but the more that BBC wheel out Neil Hamilton the better.
Most importantly I expect Welsh Labour to distance themselves from UK Labour and wheel out cuddly Carwyn at every opportunity. I would not even rule out a mass resignation of WLab altogether!!
So barring any unexpected moves I would expect Welsh result to become more like:
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I would have thought the first thing to ask the guy from Kantar Polling is why it take ONE MONTH from the start of their polling period for his stuff to see the light of day. Their survey dates (which took a bit of digging) are between MARCH 29th and April 11th. In peacetime this is just about acceptable. In an election period when polls come thick and fast it makes them of little more than historic interest.
Kantar are the parent company of TNS.
They do quite a bit of their polling by face to face interview with respondents so if they have conducted a proper sampling exercise and used their personal interview method (which from memory they do in Scotland) the additional time is necessary to track down the respondents who live at the addresses that have been randomly picked but who were not home/available on calls 1,2,3 etc.
It's the same method that is used by most pre-eminent social research companies. It increases the likelihood of a representative sample.
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere
So, Labour apparantly guaranteing the rights of EU nationals with nothing in return and apparantly (if I understand correctly) we will not leave if we don't get the right deal...........
Hmmm - Interesting stance to negotiations
Actually that's a better strategy than the one Mrs May took. Refuse to budge until you get the shape of the deal you want. The EU wouldn't be able to do a thing about it. But it's too late now. The EU is in control of the process once you call Article 50.
On topic, I still think (fear) we're one terrorist attack away from President Le Pen.
Though as someone told me yesterday to the French, it's probably now like being in the UK in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s, regular IRA attacks are priced in to life.
If Macron represented a government which had ignored lots of warnings etc then the risk might be greater - but as he's Hollande's mini-me Independent, I trust it shouldn't. But lets hope we don't find out.
Eddie Izzard in the eighties used to do a great sketch on 'bomb at Oxford Circus Tube' - what's the typical Londoner reaction? Not OMG! How awful! Prayers! But 'Ok, I'll take the Circle to Embankment, Northern to Leicester Square, then Piccadilly to Kings Cross'
So, Labour apparantly guaranteing the rights of EU nationals with nothing in return and apparantly (if I understand correctly) we will not leave if we don't get the right deal...........
Hmmm - Interesting stance to negotiations
Actually that's a better strategy than the one Mrs May took. Refuse to budge until you get the shape of the deal you want. The EU wouldn't be able to do a thing about it. But it's too late now. The EU is in control of the process once you call Article 50.
There would literally be zero reason for them to do anything. They quite like the current arrangement as we supply a good fraction of their budget.
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere
I can see the Conservatives winning Vauxhall with 35% of the vote perhaps.
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
Not only do I know a bit about Scottish polling I used to work for Systems Three many moons ago as a part time job. In these far off days before the internet we had to post our quota of interviews back to base! However they were still more up to date than the current Kantar version!
There is no excuse during an election for presenting a poll as new information when it started surveying ONE MONTH ago and no excuse in the days of electronic media for taking two weeks from survey finish to publication.
Thus I suggest that given we have had THREE POLLS since showing a much different position then we should conclude that Kantar have produced an outlier. In my day this sometimes happened with Systems Three because the political stuff was list in a huge consumer survey about soap powder etc. I don't know if that is still the position with Kantar but since no newspaper seems to be paying for it I suspect that it is.
To repeat three polls since Kantar have shown independence support rising to 49 per cent, 45 per cent and 47 per cent from their own previous surveys while BMG for the Herald showed support for a referendum in the Surgeon timetable at 47 per cent not 27 per cent.
The point remains why are posters on political betting, as oppposed to a unionist press, so anxious not to recognise that the findings of the Kantar survey has been overtaken by three more recent polls?
Off topic, but I thought I'd give you an exchange I had with a pollster last night.
If it is all about leadership ratings and trust on the economy, and you reverse engineer the VI from that using 2015 as a baseline, the Tory lead should be in the mid 30s.
Comments
"Sir Eric, 65, the MP for Brentwood & Ongar is expected to take a a seat in the Lords as part of Mrs May's disillusion honours list...."
Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right flank, most of the main centre 3rd party and is about to eat a slice of the centre-left too.
The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.
There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrwxAPm-OW4&feature=youtu.be
Sylvain Crépon, a sociologist specialising in the Front National, has an astute take on the Macron-Le Pen face-off for Libération:
Of all the candidates Marine Le Pen could have faced in the second round, Emmanuel Macron is the one who is projected to beat her the most convincingly. For all that, he is the candidate that she would most like to confront.
To understand why, we need to return to the FN’s project of reconfiguring French democracy around the question of identity ... It wants the principle divide to be between those attached to national identity (nationalists, patriots, souverainists) and those who seek to destroy it (globalists, cosmopolitans, pro-Europeans).
If Le Pen can replace a supposedly outmoded left-right divide based on economic and social criteria with with this new division, she can present her party as the one true alternative to what she describes as a system of “uncontrolled globalisation”. And that is a system of which Emmanuel Macron is the perfect incarnation.
I do think a majority want a deal done to lift the sword of Damocles from the heads of EU citizens here, but as part of corresponding guarantees for British citizens in the EU.
If the Lib Dems had been going into this election with 40 MPs rather than 9 it might have been very different. I think their foot print is just too small to have the impact they probably should. They are also very focussed on getting lost seats back from the Tories. On current polling that is not where the easy pickings are, it really isn't.
http://www.cityam.com/263464/bad-news-jeremy-corbyn-and-good-news-theresa-may-people
Monmouth -> Newport East (18 seats, which I think every model will have as turning on the welsh numbers, no seats going Labour or any other colour.
Ynys Môn 6% ahead of the Nats, Labour 3rd. {Lowest winning % of 35}
Cardiff West 6% ahead of Lab
Cardiff South & Penarth 6% ahead of Lab
Torfaen 6% ahead of Lab
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr JUST behind the Nats.
Swansea West 1% behind Labour
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 1.5% behind the nats.
Owen Smith can breath a sigh of relief if my model is correct, he is seat 26 and looks 6% out of reach.
Lib Dem gain Cardiff West, hold Ceredigion comfortably.
Say so! Stop waffling! And to the "we voted to leave" argument its simple, as on a leaflet we have already produced said the issue has been settled by the British people - we are leaving and the issue is what we do next.
Unfortunately Starmer appears to have just finished the interview saying we won't leave without a good deal...
Actually I think some Remainers do and likewise some Leavers consider Labour a Remain supporting party.
Labour's positioning is not good.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856651768838664192?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4813/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-farage-might-be-giving-ge2017-a-miss-but-expect-to-see-him-on/p1
Mr. Pioneers, if that's true, and gets picked up by the electorate, it won't go down well.
Labour's pitch is "Not the same as TMay"
So NOT the best deal for Britain.
That's a tough sell...
tm Roger - Champagne Socialist who doesn't mind a country that votes for a distinctly right candidate - as long as it's not here.
I would have thought the first thing to ask the guy from Kantar Polling is why it take ONE MONTH from the start of their polling period for his stuff to see the light of day. Their survey dates (which took a bit of digging) are between MARCH 29th and April 11th. In peacetime this is just about acceptable. In an election period when polls come thick and fast it makes them of little more than historic interest.
We have had three more recent full polls in Scotland from BMG, Survation and Panelbase all thee of which show independence support RISING from their previous surveys at 49 per cent , 45 per cent and 47 per cent respectively. This means that rather there has been an independence surge since the start of April or much more likely the Kantar poll is simply a rougue which happens from time to time.
Now I understand why Ruth Davidson, some one called Roden (who I thought worked for her but turns out to be a Labour press officer!) and the usual suspects in the unionist press in Scotland want to present Kantar as a "new poll" but it simply is not.
What is less obvious is why people on this site which is meant to be an exchange of information as well as opinions don't want to reveal that the poll which they are bigging up turns out to be weeks old and overtaken by THREE other surveys two of which were taken in the last few days since the election announcement.
Does anyone know how much the cumulative Rebate reduction now amounts to after a decade ?
Must be a very significant sounding sum - rather more than £350m a week for a year I'd guess.
Jeez, don't you know anything about Scottish independence polling?
It is generally not the practice of Government to critique press headlines, which tend to hyperbole in Britain. Nothing new in that. What is new is the demand from certain sections of the so-called liberal elite that Cabinet Ministers should spend their time condemning newspapers.
Most people are interested in policy and substance, not rhetoric. And if they were interested in rhetoric they would judge a party by the rhetoric of its leaders, not that of a few of its press supporters.
If it is all about leadership ratings and trust on the economy, and you reverse engineer the VI from that using 2015 as a baseline, the Tory lead should be in the mid 30s.
What a GE night that would be.
But that then raises the question of who plays Damar
Though as someone told me yesterday to the French, it's probably now like being in the UK in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s, regular IRA attacks are priced in to life.
Painful, painful, painful
Hmmm - Interesting stance to negotiations
Weak, weak, weak.
It'd take something seriously dramatic.
Mr. D, there will come a day when May's opponents stop killing themselves and she has to do more than simply step over their fallen bodies.
But it isn't today.
They do quite a bit of their polling by face to face interview with respondents so if they have conducted a proper sampling exercise and used their personal interview method (which from memory they do in Scotland) the additional time is necessary to track down the respondents who live at the addresses that have been randomly picked but who were not home/available on calls 1,2,3 etc.
It's the same method that is used by most pre-eminent social research companies. It increases the likelihood of a representative sample.
If Macron represented a government which had ignored lots of warnings etc then the risk might be greater - but as he's Hollande's mini-me Independent, I trust it shouldn't. But lets hope we don't find out.
Eddie Izzard in the eighties used to do a great sketch on 'bomb at Oxford Circus Tube' - what's the typical Londoner reaction? Not OMG! How awful! Prayers! But 'Ok, I'll take the Circle to Embankment, Northern to Leicester Square, then Piccadilly to Kings Cross'
http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/shock-withdrawal-of-bath-liberal-democrat-election-candidate-jay-risbridger/story-30291858-detail/story.html
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
Not only do I know a bit about Scottish polling I used to work for Systems Three many moons ago as a part time job. In these far off days before the internet we had to post our quota of interviews back to base! However they were still more up to date than the current Kantar version!
There is no excuse during an election for presenting a poll as new information when it started surveying ONE MONTH ago and no excuse in the days of electronic media for taking two weeks from survey finish to publication.
Thus I suggest that given we have had THREE POLLS since showing a much different position then we should conclude that Kantar have produced an outlier. In my day this sometimes happened with Systems Three because the political stuff was list in a huge consumer survey about soap powder etc. I don't know if that is still the position with Kantar but since no newspaper seems to be paying for it I suspect that it is.
To repeat three polls since Kantar have shown independence support rising to 49 per cent, 45 per cent and 47 per cent from their own previous surveys while BMG for the Herald showed support for a referendum in the Surgeon timetable at 47 per cent not 27 per cent.
The point remains why are posters on political betting, as oppposed to a unionist press, so anxious not to recognise that the findings of the Kantar survey has been overtaken by three more recent polls?