Starmer is a boring and monotonous speaker but he also looks defeated.
Very subdued applause as well
The death throws of labour in full sight
Maybe he saw the results of the sky data poll just before he went on? And found the key offer he was about to announce has a majority against it.
Sky given up on him as he starts to waffle.
Anything they announce will get the same treatment, the electorate has decided if it's red it doesn't want it. The danger for Labour is this getting as bad as Scotland 2015, and they find themselves getting 10-30% just about everywhere and almost nothing to show for it.
The sky data poll was asked pre the labour announcement and without any mention of which party.
I stand corrected. Labour announcing it will make it even more unpopular then
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.
An eye-watering sum.
Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.
Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.
An eye-watering sum.
Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.
Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.
So because the next generation is stuffed you want to abolish any inheritance the next generation may get?
@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.
SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
For that London would need to go blue. That can't happen unless Labour did something really daft like using someone that sees closing down the City of London as a good idea to write their manifesto.
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.
An eye-watering sum.
Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.
Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.
So because the next generation is stuffed you want to abolish any inheritance the next generation may get?
A tax on pensions would be generationally fairer.
Pensions are already taxable. Do you mean an additional tax on them?
That's quite a vote-winner. Have you suggested it to Jeremy?
SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
You do wonder how this is going to end but there is little doubt it will end labour as we know it today
All self-inflicted sadly. A one party state in a 'democracy' is not healthy. Especially when that party has control of the press and the establishment.
Why is there no similar restriction on the London Underground? Why no security searches at Hampstead, Holborn and Harrow? You can't exactly say there's never been an incident.
The kind of bombs they are worried about — a few hundred grams of explosives detonated manually — would do little damage on a train, they would likely only kill the bomber and maybe a couple of people in the immediate vicinity. On an aircraft the bomber is intending to detonate the bomb at a weak point to breach the fuselage, and if they get their way bring down the aircraft. That's why the authorities are worried about them on aircraft but not other forms of transport.
In the hold of an an airliner the bomb can't be detonated manually, and can't be placed at a chosen weak point. Which should limit the risk considerably.
If these bombs are being made by the AQAP bomb maker* who made the printer cartridge bombs, which seems to be the case, they are likely to pass through most security undetected, the only way of stopping them is a blanket ban on electronics over a certain size in the cabin.
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.
Since the EU is the most cultured, benevolent and noble organisation on earth, all part from the UK united in being so cultured and benevolent, I don't see why they cannot collectively come to such a decision very quickly indeed. Or are other nations in the EU still beholden to pettier national concerns? Surely not.
Imagine being black-balled at Whites and you'll get the picture
A very depressing thread ... //twitter.com/matteocarandini/status/856183171561476096
The current 85 page monstrosity is clearly unfit for purpose - it may have changed, but there were many fewer pages to fill in when applying for citizenship - which logically should be tougher.....
SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
For that London would need to go blue. That can't happen unless Labour did something really daft like using someone that sees closing down the City of London as a good idea to write their manifesto.
It's was tongue in cheek of course. Labour won't go under 120 IMO, but they MUST split after the GE, they've got to eradicate the hard left, the soft left need to form a new centre party and then drift gently left once embedded should the winds dictate.
SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
You do wonder how this is going to end but there is little doubt it will end labour as we know it today
All self-inflicted sadly. A one party state in a 'democracy' is not healthy. Especially when that party has control of the press and the establishment.
I agree to some extent but if it comes to pass it is entirely labour's fault. To be honest this election feels very like Blair in 1997 and a substantial conservative majority must be on the cards
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.
Since the EU is the most cultured, benevolent and noble organisation on earth, all part from the UK united in being so cultured and benevolent, I don't see why they cannot collectively come to such a decision very quickly indeed. Or are other nations in the EU still beholden to pettier national concerns? Surely not.
Imagine being black-balled at Whites and you'll get the picture
SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
You do wonder how this is going to end but there is little doubt it will end labour as we know it today
All self-inflicted sadly. A one party state in a 'democracy' is not healthy. Especially when that party has control of the press and the establishment.
I agree to some extent but if it comes to pass it is entirely labour's fault. To be honest this election feels very like Blair in 1997 and a substantial conservative majority must be on the cards
1997 but Labour fight without Scotland and most of Wales. That's like Tories in 97 going in without the home counties
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.
Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
I'm sure they were both conflicted about what to do, I don't blame them for that. Though months ago some people were arguing that despite saying she was a remainer May only did so because of loyalty and really she had been a leaver all along, which personally I thought was an insult to her - much better that she genuinely thought remain the best option but is now determined to make the best of Brexit and genuinely believes it can go well, than that she lied because of loyalty, when others were happy to be honest.
That's extremely generous of you, K ! Many would go for ambition and political expedience, but you pays your penny....
They have both had a pretty soft ride on the matter. It is indisputable, imo, that a senior Labour politician performing a similar volte face would have suffered a much rougher one.
If she had leadership ambitions (and she clearly did), then the cynical option was to back Leave given that at least 2/3 of the Conservative Party's membership was that way inclined.
Why is there no similar restriction on the London Underground? Why no security searches at Hampstead, Holborn and Harrow? You can't exactly say there's never been an incident.
The kind of bombs they are worried about — a few hundred grams of explosives detonated manually — would do little damage on a train, they would likely only kill the bomber and maybe a couple of people in the immediate vicinity. On an aircraft the bomber is intending to detonate the bomb at a weak point to breach the fuselage, and if they get their way bring down the aircraft. That's why the authorities are worried about them on aircraft but not other forms of transport.
In the hold of an an airliner the bomb can't be detonated manually, and can't be placed at a chosen weak point. Which should limit the risk considerably.
If these bombs are being made by the AQAP bomb maker* who made the printer cartridge bombs, which seems to be the case, they are likely to pass through most security undetected, the only way of stopping them is a blanket ban on electronics over a certain size in the cabin.
I'm still not sure that justifies the reaction, or indeed the absurd security palaver at airports, but it's helpful info for those of us that like to think about these things.
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in Scotland
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmic
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)
I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.
our exit poll says its too close to call - now that will keep millions up watching rather than Cons win by 140 and everyone goes to bed
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.
Macron is bad news for Brexit.
If he is bad news for Brexit, then Le Pen would be an unmitigated disaster!
Sorry, Rob, don't quite follow the logic.
Le Pen is anti-EU, so her election would be a serious blow to it, no? So how would that be a disaster for Brexit? Doesn't she just add her name to the list of prominent anti-Eu leaders, such as Trump and Putin?
Negotiating an exit deal is going to be hard enough. Negotiating one while France is also agitating to leave would be far worse.
Well, maybe Rod, but it seems obvious to me we will only get such terms as the other side want us to have, so it probably doesn't make that much difference.
SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
You do wonder how this is going to end but there is little doubt it will end labour as we know it today
All self-inflicted sadly. A one party state in a 'democracy' is not healthy. Especially when that party has control of the press and the establishment.
The mail's bleating about taxes days after 'crash the saboteurs' shows that if the tories do get a big majority, they will still be pilloried by the press if the press don't like a policy.
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.
Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
I'm sure they were both conflicted about what to do, I don't blame them for that. Though months ago some people were arguing that despite saying she was a remainer May only did so because of loyalty and really she had been a leaver all along, which personally I thought was an insult to her - much better that she genuinely thought remain the best option but is now determined to make the best of Brexit and genuinely believes it can go well, than that she lied because of loyalty, when others were happy to be honest.
That's extremely generous of you, K ! Many would go for ambition and political expedience, but you pays your penny....
They have both had a pretty soft ride on the matter. It is indisputable, imo, that a senior Labour politician performing a similar volte face would have suffered a much rougher one.
If she had leadership ambitions (and she clearly did), then the cynical option was to back Leave given that at least 2/3 of the Conservative Party's membership was that way inclined.
SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
You do wonder how this is going to end but there is little doubt it will end labour as we know it today
All self-inflicted sadly. A one party state in a 'democracy' is not healthy. Especially when that party has control of the press and the establishment.
I agree to some extent but if it comes to pass it is entirely labour's fault. To be honest this election feels very like Blair in 1997 and a substantial conservative majority must be on the cards
1997 but Labour fight without Scotland and most of Wales. That's like Tories in 97 going in without the home counties
Good point and even now I find it strange to see how labour are dead in Scotland and looking as if the same will apply in Wales on June 9th
This suggests there are 5% who back Macron now but who would vote for Le Pen against Fillon. So a significant proportion of intending Macron voters DON'T see Le Pen as dirty, dangerous, and to be voted against at all costs. They're only plumping for Macron because he doesn't appear to be a man of the system, a smug conservative like Fillon. While everyone is now wise to the fact that some Mélenchon supporters will vote for Le Pen, I'm not sure that people are taking the flakiness of Macron's support in the direction of Le Pen into account.
The more Macron pushes the line that Le Pen is evil, the more he may increase the proportion of his supporters who are soft in their support and who could imagine switching to Le Pen.
Macron would love R2 to be tomorrow, but his problem is that it won't be held for nearly a fortnight. If I were advising him, I'd say don't run a polarising campaign. Don't focus on saving the Republic (from Le Pen). She's focusing on saving France (from the Arab hordes), and compared to the Republic, France may be a stronger brand. We're talking about De Gaulle's Republic here, the Republic that has seen a right bunch of crooks both as president and in other high office.
What the polls say now won't win this for Macron. He's got to run a campaign. The spotlight will shine far more brightly on him than it did before R1. How's he going to play it? What if there's violence at the weekend and on Mayday Monday? Should he participate in the Wednesday debate (with two days of campaigning left), where you can be sure that Le Pen will polarise to the hilt? Or should he pooh-pooh it and play the "you're so far beneath me in all respects, and if you want a debate you can have it with yourself" card?
His poll lead seems to be there for the crumbling.
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.
Macron is bad news for Brexit.
If he is bad news for Brexit, then Le Pen would be an unmitigated disaster!
Sorry, Rob, don't quite follow the logic.
Le Pen is anti-EU, so her election would be a serious blow to it, no? So how would that be a disaster for Brexit? Doesn't she just add her name to the list of prominent anti-Eu leaders, such as Trump and Putin?
Negotiating an exit deal is going to be hard enough. Negotiating one while France is also agitating to leave would be far worse.
Well, maybe Rod, but it seems obvious to me we will only get such terms as the other side want us to have, so it probably doesn't make that much difference.
Great to see you posting again Peter.
Thank you, Roger. I'm amazed to discover how much more popular one becomes after disappearing for a while.
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.
An eye-watering sum.
Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.
Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.
@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in Scotland
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmic
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)
I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.
our exit poll says its too close to call - now that will keep millions up watching rather than Cons win by 140 and everyone goes to bed
And miss seeing all the labour big wigs fall publicly on TV
Mr. Observer, indeed, there seem to have been a number of very poor decisions on permanent leave to remain.
The longer it takes for us to guarantee the rights of EU citizens the more chance there is we will lose the high income, in-demand, entrepreneurial people we need here and say we want to keep. People with choices will exercise them and we'll be the poorer for it.
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.
Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
I'm sure they were both conflicted about what to do, I don't blame them for that. Though months ago some people were arguing that despite saying she was a remainer May only did so because of loyalty and really she had been a leaver all along, which personally I thought was an insult to her - much better that she genuinely thought remain the best option but is now determined to make the best of Brexit and genuinely believes it can go well, than that she lied because of loyalty, when others were happy to be honest.
That's extremely generous of you, K ! Many would go for ambition and political expedience, but you pays your penny....
They have both had a pretty soft ride on the matter. It is indisputable, imo, that a senior Labour politician performing a similar volte face would have suffered a much rougher one.
If she had leadership ambitions (and she clearly did), then the cynical option was to back Leave given that at least 2/3 of the Conservative Party's membership was that way inclined.
I think May saw herself as neither.
I think her campaigning was very telling. She genuinely was Remain but wasn't at all enthusiastic about it. It was a pragmatic decision in which the disbenefits of one option marginally outweighed the disbenefits of the other.
SNP to form HM opposition. I mean, this is getting silly now, are we really sitting here talking about seats that would see Labour not far off 100?
For that London would need to go blue. That can't happen unless Labour did something really daft like using someone that sees closing down the City of London as a good idea to write their manifesto.
It's was tongue in cheek of course. Labour won't go under 120 IMO, but they MUST split after the GE, they've got to eradicate the hard left, the soft left need to form a new centre party and then drift gently left once embedded should the winds dictate.
Yep, I took it as such. For them to get a really low total the mechanism would almost certainly primarily be self-inflicted damage. A pre-election split, MPs campaigning on a 'won't serve in Corbyn cabinet' ticket etc. Now that's very unlikely indeed, but isn't to be totally ruled out.
Burnham losing in Manchester would be an interesting possible catalyst.
My main care though is that whatever the result Corbyn isn't PM, and that the out-and-out idiots such as McDonnell, Abbott, etc are kept well away from any sharp instruments of government.
STILL no constituency markets from Ladbrokes and frankly pretty thin gruel from them generally as regards their political markets - just the really basic stuff.
All very unShadsy like, from someone who's usually well ahead of the game. Surely he can't have been head-hunted can he?
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in Scotland
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmic
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)
I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.
our exit poll says its too close to call - now that will keep millions up watching rather than Cons win by 140 and everyone goes to bed
And miss seeing all the labour big wigs fall publically on TV
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.
Since the EU is the most cultured, benevolent and noble organisation on earth, all part from the UK united in being so cultured and benevolent, I don't see why they cannot collectively come to such a decision very quickly indeed. Or are other nations in the EU still beholden to pettier national concerns? Surely not.
Imagine being black-balled at Whites and you'll get the picture
I'm still not sure that justifies the reaction, or indeed the absurd security palaver at airports, but it's helpful info for those of us that like to think about these things.
Basically there is one or more competent bomb makers working for AQAP and affiliated groups.
The cargo plane bombs suggest that they are extreme hard to detect.
Later forensic examination indicated that the bomb was inadvertently disarmed by Scotland Yard explosive officers, who took the printer cartridge out of the printer during their examination that morning, around three hours before the bomb was due to explode at 10:30 AM (5:30 AM Eastern time) .[19][20][28] The officers were unaware when they took the device apart that it was a bomb.[21]
British officials continued to believe that there were not any explosives in the package,[19] but U.S. authorities insisted that the package be inspected again. British authorities then consulted with officials in Dubai, who had discovered a similar bomb in a computer printer cartridge, and MI6 spoke with the Saudi tipster. Scotland Yard explosives officers flew the printer and the cartridge in a police helicopter to the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory at Fort Halstead near London, and discovered the bomb at around 2 PM.[19][21][24][27]
Frank field on sky talking about child hunger. I have a lot of time for frank, but despite giving a huge estimated figure he is unable to give any clue of what proportion is down to poverty and which is due to neglect by parents. Simply throwing more money at giving out more free food doesn't tackle the later, as if parents are neglecting their kids such that they don't feed them, they will be neglecting them in all sorts of ways.
STILL no constituency markets from Ladbrokes and frankly pretty thin gruel from them generally as regards their political markets - just the really basic stuff.
All very unShadsy like, from someone who's usually well ahead of the game. Surely he can't have been head-hunted can he?
Betfair seems to have regretted opening them up so quickly
I think her campaigning was very telling. She genuinely was Remain but wasn't at all enthusiastic about it. It was a pragmatic decision in which the disbenefits of one option marginally outweighed the disbenefits of the other.
She also wanted to hedge her bets and knew that if Leave won then Cameron would resign and she could put her pearls on, wow the membership, and get her arse in to Number Ten. As soon as Leave did win, I bet against Mophead and in favour of May.
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in Scotland
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmic
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)
I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.
our exit poll says its too close to call - now that will keep millions up watching rather than Cons win by 140 and everyone goes to bed
So he won't sell it like that. It'd be "we're predicting a Con majority of 140 which could include some truly historic losses for Labour - but we're still waiting on the details there".
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.
Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
I'm sure they were both conflicted about what to do, I don't blame them for that. Though months ago some people were arguing that despite saying she was a remainer May only did so because of loyalty and really she had been a leaver all along, which personally I thought was an insult to her - much better that she genuinely thought remain the best option but is now determined to make the best of Brexit and genuinely believes it can go well, than that she lied because of loyalty, when others were happy to be honest.
That's extremely generous of you, K ! Many would go for ambition and political expedience, but you pays your penny....
They have both had a pretty soft ride on the matter. It is indisputable, imo, that a senior Labour politician performing a similar volte face would have suffered a much rougher one.
If she had leadership ambitions (and she clearly did), then the cynical option was to back Leave given that at least 2/3 of the Conservative Party's membership was that way inclined.
I think May saw herself as neither.
I think her campaigning was very telling. She genuinely was Remain but wasn't at all enthusiastic about it. It was a pragmatic decision in which the disbenefits of one option marginally outweighed the disbenefits of the other.
Which I suspect makes her very similar to many Remain voters - not great enthusiasts, but on balance better off in. And also willing to accept the result.
STILL no constituency markets from Ladbrokes and frankly pretty thin gruel from them generally as regards their political markets - just the really basic stuff.
All very unShadsy like, from someone who's usually well ahead of the game. Surely he can't have been head-hunted can he?
Shadsy is very wise indeed. There are times when the only sensible course of action for a bookie is "no bet".
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.
It's a very bad point. There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of the EU27 not having a 100% common position on this.
@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.
Good morning, everybody.
Just a sneaky way of getting that progressive alliance in
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.
Reminds me of this line from one of my fav films
"What was I supposed to do? Call him for cheating better than me in front of the others?!"
Frank field on sky talking about child hunger. I have a lot of time for frank, but despite giving a huge estimated figure he is unable to give any clue of what proportion is down to poverty and which is due to neglect by parents. Simply throwing more money at giving out more free food doesn't tackle the later, as if parents are neglecting their kids such that they don't feed them, they will be neglecting them in all sorts of ways.
He's probably aware that there are practically no working class parents who would rather spend their money on cigarettes even if that means letting their children go hungry.
If you want neglect, look at how so many bourgeois parents send their brats to boarding school.
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.
+1
That is the truth sadly. You just need to go out and speak to people. Sad, sad times...
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.
You don't give the working class much credit to process the lies from both sides and make up their own minds. I don't think you really understand the working class. In my experience, the feelings that led to vote long brexit have been fueled over 15 years, not 15 weeks, by decisions taken by politicians of all colours.
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.
+1
That is the truth sadly. You just need to go out and speak to people. Sad, sad times...
It's not true. People felt they hadn't been listened to for decades, for generations, with no palatable non-neo-Nazi political party telling it how it is about immigration. Most of the "metropolitan elite" were pro-EU. Where does Chianti come from?
It's easy to think the knuckle-dragging plebs are always and only sheep, but the working class people who voted Leave didn't do it because David Owen and John Cleese told them to.
I have seen a breakdown of how Melenchon's vote is likely to split and recall it's about 3:1 in favor of Macron. Unfortunately I don't remember where I saw it (but I do remember being surprised it wasn't closer to 50/50) so I can't give you a link.
If you come across an analysis, I'd be very grateful if you'd let me know. Use my email if you like: arklebar@gmail.com
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.
You don't give the working class much credit to process the lies from both sides and make up their own minds. I don't think you really understand the working class. In my experience, the feelings that led to vote long brexit have been fueled over 15 years, not 15 weeks, by politicians of all colours.
All those lies from Leave saw UKIP go from 3-12% a year earlier, and win the euros in 2014!
Where were the signs?
"It's peak kipper, & IPSOS MORI says no one is interested in the EU"
Remember folks, Tories still don't have any councillors in Manchester city, sheffield, Liverpool or Newcastle....just how will they gain a majority.....
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in Scotland
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmic
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)
I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.
Radio 4 starts coverage with music marked sehr feierlich und sehr langsam on the score.
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
Need to differentiate ourselves as the party of 'Soft Brexit'.
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.
You don't give the working class much credit to process the lies from both sides and make up their own minds. I don't think you really understand the working class. In my experience, the feelings that led to vote long brexit have been fueled over 15 years, not 15 weeks, by decisions taken by politicians of all colours.
We agree! Although I'd say it was a lot longer than 15 years. Maybe 35-40.
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
It is over. They can say and do nothing now to stop the blood bath that is coming.
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
Need to differentiate ourselves as the party of 'Soft Brexit'.
It's the same policy as the Tories. Tariff free access to a single market we aren't a member of. We won't get it because the EU can't offer it. It's a policy for hard Brexit. It'll see us destroyed from remainers and destroyed by leavers.
It's 1997 in reverse. Tories will win seats they haven't held for a generation
@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.
No special over night coverage of the local elections on BBC on May 4 BBC Two starts coverage at 9am on Friday - not sure if SKY News are covering the locals over night
No black swan terrorist event will swing this election in favour of Le Pen. This assumption is a misunderstanding of her support increase. Her anti-globalization campaign is her strong point. It actually is the economy, stupid. the people that would be swayed to vote for her because of a terror attack will already have been voting for her. People don't forget things like the Bataclan or Nice, those who would switch to her because of that already have done so (and it is a small number) - a terrorist attack between now and voting day won't shift anything, just like the one on the Champs didn't either.
If Macron were to lose (I don't think he will, but if he did), it would be because of their respective economic programs - that is what will sway unsure voters between these two rounds.
Polling has largely proved accurate so far in France which should reassure for Macron. Which means we would likely see a change in polling direction for the two before any upset, rather than an on the night shocker.
STILL no constituency markets from Ladbrokes and frankly pretty thin gruel from them generally as regards their political markets - just the really basic stuff.
All very unShadsy like, from someone who's usually well ahead of the game. Surely he can't have been head-hunted can he?
Shadsy is very wise indeed. There are times when the only sensible course of action for a bookie is "no bet".
I agree. I wouldn't like to do a tissue on this election. Labour seats for example - could be anything from 200 down to....well, zero,frankly.
... I have seen a breakdown of how Melenchon's vote is likely to split and recall it's about 3:1 in favor of Macron. Unfortunately I don't remember where I saw it (but I do remember being surprised it wasn't closer to 50/50) so I can't give you a link.....
That sounds about right. What you have to remember is that, for the Left, Le Pen is cultural anathema. It doesn't matter that her policies and Mélenchon's are actually quite similar in many ways, it's a tribal/identity thing, and they view Le Pen as fascist and racist, without noticing the similarity in the mirror.
No special over night coverage of the local elections on BBC on May 4 BBC Two starts coverage at 9am on Friday - not sure if SKY News are covering the locals over night
Comments
https://twitter.com/matteocarandini/status/856183171561476096
A tax on pensions would be generationally fairer.
Pensions are already taxable. Do you mean an additional tax on them?
That's quite a vote-winner. Have you suggested it to Jeremy?
In the hold of an an airliner the bomb can't be detonated manually, and can't be placed at a chosen weak point. Which should limit the risk considerably.
If these bombs are being made by the AQAP bomb maker* who made the printer cartridge bombs, which seems to be the case, they are likely to pass through most security undetected, the only way of stopping them is a blanket ban on electronics over a certain size in the cabin.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_al-Asiri
I'm still not sure that justifies the reaction, or indeed the absurd security palaver at airports, but it's helpful info for those of us that like to think about these things.
An ITV News/ComRes poll of all Labour's 40 Scotland seats shows:
19 pts Swing from Labour to the SNP
Translated into projected votes this means:
28 Seats Labour would lose to SNP
Leaving Labour with:
12 MPs in Scotland
Result:
23.9% swing
Ranging from 10.9% Edi South to 39.3% Glasgow North East.
Now the Tory swing is smaller but the swing variance may well be up there......
62%-38% Macron-Le Pen
57%-43% Fillon-Le Pen
This suggests there are 5% who back Macron now but who would vote for Le Pen against Fillon. So a significant proportion of intending Macron voters DON'T see Le Pen as dirty, dangerous, and to be voted against at all costs. They're only plumping for Macron because he doesn't appear to be a man of the system, a smug conservative like Fillon. While everyone is now wise to the fact that some Mélenchon supporters will vote for Le Pen, I'm not sure that people are taking the flakiness of Macron's support in the direction of Le Pen into account.
The more Macron pushes the line that Le Pen is evil, the more he may increase the proportion of his supporters who are soft in their support and who could imagine switching to Le Pen.
Macron would love R2 to be tomorrow, but his problem is that it won't be held for nearly a fortnight. If I were advising him, I'd say don't run a polarising campaign. Don't focus on saving the Republic (from Le Pen). She's focusing on saving France (from the Arab hordes), and compared to the Republic, France may be a stronger brand. We're talking about De Gaulle's Republic here, the Republic that has seen a right bunch of crooks both as president and in other high office.
What the polls say now won't win this for Macron. He's got to run a campaign. The spotlight will shine far more brightly on him than it did before R1. How's he going to play it? What if there's violence at the weekend and on Mayday Monday? Should he participate in the Wednesday debate (with two days of campaigning left), where you can be sure that Le Pen will polarise to the hilt? Or should he pooh-pooh it and play the "you're so far beneath me in all respects, and if you want a debate you can have it with yourself" card?
His poll lead seems to be there for the crumbling.
I never learn.
What on earth do the people of Doncaster North have in common with Ed Miliband, and vice-versa?
I really should be voting for them.
Good morning, everybody.
Burnham losing in Manchester would be an interesting possible catalyst.
My main care though is that whatever the result Corbyn isn't PM, and that the out-and-out idiots such as McDonnell, Abbott, etc are kept well away from any sharp instruments of government.
All very unShadsy like, from someone who's usually well ahead of the game. Surely he can't have been head-hunted can he?
The cargo plane bombs suggest that they are extreme hard to detect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_planes_bomb_plot
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
"What was I supposed to do? Call him for cheating better than me in front of the others?!"
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/7612c4ce-1077-479f-a7bf-617dbc6fc6d1
If you want neglect, look at how so many bourgeois parents send their brats to boarding school.
That is the truth sadly. You just need to go out and speak to people. Sad, sad times...
http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/shock-withdrawal-of-bath-liberal-democrat-election-candidate-jay-risbridger/story-30291858-detail/story.html
What price can i get on a Tory majority over 150?
It's the end. We are done
It's easy to think the knuckle-dragging plebs are always and only sheep, but the working class people who voted Leave didn't do it because David Owen and John Cleese told them to.
I have seen a breakdown of how Melenchon's vote is likely to split and recall it's about 3:1 in favor of Macron. Unfortunately I don't remember where I saw it (but I do remember being surprised it wasn't closer to 50/50) so I can't give you a link.
If you come across an analysis, I'd be very grateful if you'd let me know. Use my email if you like: arklebar@gmail.com
Thank you.
Though my method only results in a swing variance of 7 to 15%, which might be low.
Owen Smith might not be safe after all.
Where were the signs?
"It's peak kipper, & IPSOS MORI says no one is interested in the EU"
Need to differentiate ourselves as the party of 'Soft Brexit'.
It's 1997 in reverse. Tories will win seats they haven't held for a generation
If Macron were to lose (I don't think he will, but if he did), it would be because of their respective economic programs - that is what will sway unsure voters between these two rounds.
Polling has largely proved accurate so far in France which should reassure for Macron. Which means we would likely see a change in polling direction for the two before any upset, rather than an on the night shocker.
If Shadsy is being cautious, he's being smart.
BTW Great to see you back and kicking!
So
+398.5 Lose 1 Gain 5/6 (Net loss 1/6 of stake)
-378.5 Lose 5/6 Gain 1 (Net loss 1/6 of stake)
379 - 398 seats Gain 10/6 (Net Gain 1/6 of stake)
Which gives a majority spread of 108 to 146 at odds of 10-1.