Amazing* how one poll becomes 'polls' and polls become 'one poll showing increase'.
*not even slightly amazing.
Of course we all remember those febrile days after the Brexit referendum, though some have no doubt drunk deeply of the TRuthy Kool Aid in an effort to forget.
'Posts: 21,367 June 25 JackW said:
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
Nice to see you Jack I agree on all 3 points.'
Wait a minute, who's this guy?!
'*****_* Posts: 21,352 June 25 williamglenn said: At this point it's not inconceivable, although unlikely, that Scottish independence could happen without a referendum and with the consent of Westminster.
Westminster would be insane to refuse, which is why people like Bernard Jenkin are talking about it'
I guess some people have principles while others have tribal (if malleable) loyalties.
The allegations are believed to involve a five-figure sum of money. It is understood the charges against Ms McGarry also relate to her involvement with the SNP Glasgow Regional Association.
'Brave' of Nicola to mention police investigations into Tories when there have already been charges made of an SNP-elected MP.......
The difference being the SNP removed them even before any charges were laid while the Conservatives are bravely standing by their MPs.
Laughable as the concept may be, Sunderland Central to go to a recount Tctc about 12.30 election night?
The Sunderland seats will tell us right from the start of Election Night just how bad it's going to be for Labour...
Sunderland Central is interesting. Con plus kipper are close to Labour, 8% swing from 2010 would take it, 13.5% swing from 2015 with a fat kipper vote to squeeze. Tories within 5% and it's south of 150 for Corbyn, Tory gain and it's ELE?
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.
Macron is bad news for Brexit.
If he is bad news for Brexit, then Le Pen would be an unmitigated disaster!
Sorry, Rob, don't quite follow the logic.
Le Pen is anti-EU, so her election would be a serious blow to it, no? So how would that be a disaster for Brexit? Doesn't she just add her name to the list of prominent anti-Eu leaders, such as Trump and Putin?
Negotiating an exit deal is going to be hard enough. Negotiating one while France is also agitating to leave would be far worse.
Well, maybe Rod, but it seems obvious to me we will only get such terms as the other side want us to have, so it probably doesn't make that much difference.
The Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories!
The allegations are believed to involve a five-figure sum of money. It is understood the charges against Ms McGarry also relate to her involvement with the SNP Glasgow Regional Association.
'Brave' of Nicola to mention police investigations into Tories when there have already been charges made of an SNP-elected MP.......
The difference being the SNP removed them even before any charges were laid while the Conservatives are bravely standing by their MPs.
Innocent until proven guilty?
No Tories have been charged yet, let alone tried.....
The Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories!
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
I wonder why the SNP are now desperately screaming that this vote is NOT about independence...?
Got any actual policies?
Given the demographic trends in support for independence, that kind of slogan might be counter-productive. It makes it sound like a 'No' from a strict parent, who furthermore is a Conservative.
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere
I can see the Conservatives winning Vauxhall with 35% of the vote perhaps.
That would certainly count as jaw dropping. Decapitation Of Keir Starmer would constitute a genuine Portillo moment on many levels. Can't see Dobbos stomping ground going blue though!
I think Starmer's majority might actually go up. There is no way on earth he is going to lose. You can quote me on that :-)
Incidentally, there was some airy discussion earlier about fascism amongst FN supporters. Obviously all parties have their proto-nazis but on my fairly regular trips to France (usually around Aude and Roussillon) I've always had the impression that the goose-step was a fairly popular dance. In fact I think I'd be right in saying that a map of FN hotspots would be fairly congruent with one of wartime Vichy.
N'est ce pas, ou non, mon vieux?
In my opinion, the FN is not fascist or anything else because it has basically no structured ideology. It has one strong message: opposition to immigration, especially of North-African and Subsaharan origin. Beyond that, nothing is really clear. The FN has alternated between strong anti-tax, pro-market policies and (more recently) very statist ones. It supports both a strong central government and strong local powers, both promoting a single French identity and supporting regional traditions...
All in all it's a protest party, with a great ability of pretending to share the priorities of many different groups. It is certainly a racist, unpleasant bunch.
Now regarding your point about Vichy. The initial Front national of the 70ies was certainly a bedrock of Vichy nostalgia. Jean-Marie Le Pen and friends loved to sing WWII era songs and were at the time much more antisemitic than anti-islam. But these people were always a very tiny minority. The FN managed to get bigger when it lost this focus on the past and concentrated on the resentment created by massive North-African immigration in the 1970ies and 1980ies, using very well the hurt feelings of the vétérans of the Algerian war and of the Pieds Noirs (the 1.5 million European evacuated from Algeria in 1962). One other strong difference is that the FN never got much support from the Catholic Church, unlike Vichy.
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere
Strictly speaking they cannot control the papers, but TMay clearly encourages that talk given her speech calling for the election and warning the judges. Very poor.
There is no "strictly speaking" about it: the government does not control the papers (not here, anyway: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/08/opposition-newspaper-shuts-in-hungary-deepening-media-crackdown/). The "will you condemn..." technique works a bit against politicians who have previously given signs of alignment with the proposed condemnee - as J Corbyn is about to rediscover over Hamas and the IRA - but May did not stand on the steps of No 10 and say that she proposed to govern the country in broad accordance with the editorial principles of the Daily Mail.
In certain areas their tone was only a hairsbreadth from hers - they're not feeding off nothing.
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere
Bolsover would be nice.
Islington South. Lib Dem gain. That would be a jaw dropper.
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.
Well in fairness the 'shoe bomber' was British, albeit boarded in Paris.....
Why is there no similar restriction on the London Underground? Why no security searches at Hampstead, Holborn and Harrow? You can't exactly say there's never been an incident.
Maybe it's because Londoners take the entirely reasonable views that the risk is small and not worth the aggravation. Terrorism is a terrible thing, but the number of lives lost to it in the UK and the US is smaller than that attributable to a number of far more tractable problems - e.g. gun crime in the US and road deaths here.
I would be amazed if Labour can keep their Local Elections losses below 100 seats. If the LDs can add Councils as well as seats they will get a real momentum shift for their GE campaign. Until now TM has enjoyed the limelight from the launch , the demise of UKIP and a moribund Labour Party. It can't possibly go so swimmingly well for the rest of the Campaign - or can it?
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.
His election would make the demise of the EU appear a little less likely. Since its collapse would be one of the few plausible outcomes that would make Brexit appear in hindsight a sensible decision, you can see why he's a disappointment to them.
Wanting a fascist to take power in France because it might cause damage to the EU is not a great look, IMO. What the Brexit right forget, of course, is what Theresa may has said many times: the UK needs a strong EU. Right now, it is in recovery mode and that is helping us. Should that go into reverse we will not be immune.
I think the greatest threat to the EU, or at least the Euro, is more likely to come from Italy next year where polls show 5* ahead, Le Pen and Wilders and the AfD etc are largely protest groups, 5* could actually win power
The Dutch coalition that existed prior to 2017 has collapsed. Has Rutte been able to form a new coalition yet? How many parties are in it, if he has?
Macron has the second lowest first round vote for an assumed French President in over sixty years. The only person who received a lower vote was Chirac not long before they attempted to assassinate him.
What mandate will he really have starting from a base of zero in the French legislature?
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.
Since the EU is the most cultured, benevolent and noble organisation on earth, all part from the UK united in being so cultured and benevolent, I don't see why they cannot collectively come to such a decision very quickly indeed. Or are other nations in the EU still beholden to pettier national concerns? Surely not.
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.
Sky data poll on EU migrant real is surprising. Labour on the worse side of the argument by offering unconditional right to remain for EU citizens.
With no mention of party positions, majority opposed unconditional. Majority wanted EU rights if only reciprocal agreement for UK citizens in EU ie Tory policy.
I would be amazed if Labour can keep their Local Elections losses below 100 seats. If the LDs can add Councils as well as seats they will get a real momentum shift for their GE campaign. Until now TM has enjoyed the limelight from the launch , the demise of UKIP and a moribund Labour Party. It can't possibly go so swimmingly well for the rest of the Campaign - or can it?
Just waiting for the Tories Election Scandal to hit the headlines. How much it would affect the outcome, I am not sure, but it would be hugely damaging for the Tories.
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?
Well in fairness the 'shoe bomber' was British, albeit boarded in Paris.....
Why is there no similar restriction on the London Underground?
Because its much more difficult to cause a very large scale mass casualty event? A Laptop bomb could kill ten times the number the four London bombers did.
But what I want to know is who is going to do something about toddlers?
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
No no no, the line was he was a negative for ukip, believe me.
Is there any legal/technical impediment that would stop either David Miliband or Ed Balls standing against Corbyn in Islington?
Yes. The Labour Party rule book says you get expelled from the party if you stand against an official Labour candidate.
Badge of honour, surely?
And:
"Clause I, section 4 of the membership section in Labour’s rulebook says: “A member of the party who joins and/ or supports a political organisation other than an official Labour group or other unit of the party, or supports any candidate who stands against an official Labour candidate, or publicly declares their intent to stand against a Labour candidate, shall automatically be ineligible to be or remain a party member.”"
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.
She could have given her pre-referendum speech a few twists and turned it into a message of 'on balance I support leaving, but remaining would be fine if we had a PM who wasn't a gaylording ponceyboots'.
Well in fairness the 'shoe bomber' was British, albeit boarded in Paris.....
Why is there no similar restriction on the London Underground?
Because its much more difficult to cause a very large scale mass casualty event? A Laptop bomb could kill ten times the number the four London bombers did.
But what I want to know is who is going to do something about toddlers?
I would be amazed if Labour can keep their Local Elections losses below 100 seats. If the LDs can add Councils as well as seats they will get a real momentum shift for their GE campaign. Until now TM has enjoyed the limelight from the launch , the demise of UKIP and a moribund Labour Party. It can't possibly go so swimmingly well for the rest of the Campaign - or can it?
Just waiting for the Tories Election Scandal to hit the headlines. How much it would affect the outcome, I am not sure, but it would be hugely damaging for the Tories.
Given the high bar required for a successful prosecution I'm inclined to think charges wont be brought. The electoral commission no doubt needs to tighten up the rules though.
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.
Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
I'm sure they were both conflicted about what to do, I don't blame them for that. Though months ago some people were arguing that despite saying she was a remainer May only did so because of loyalty and really she had been a leaver all along, which personally I thought was an insult to her - much better that she genuinely thought remain the best option but is now determined to make the best of Brexit and genuinely believes it can go well, than that she lied because of loyalty, when others were happy to be honest.
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.
Since the EU is the most cultured, benevolent and noble organisation on earth, all part from the UK united in being so cultured and benevolent, I don't see why they cannot collectively come to such a decision very quickly indeed. Or are other nations in the EU still beholden to pettier national concerns? Surely not.
Since they're clearly better than us I'm astonished us tawdry grubby Brits have not been set an example by them so we'd know how to behave among civilised nations. It's a mystery.....
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?
Gross interest (without APF netted off) was £49.1bn
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere
Bolsover would be nice.
Islington South. Lib Dem gain. That would be a jaw dropper.
My seat (NE Derbyshire) will go Conservative, and it won't even be close. I reckon its the Tories vs 50% here.
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in Scotland
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmic
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)
Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?
That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.
I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in Scotland
12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.
I'd say they would see anything outside the borders going blue as positively orgasmic
The early hours of the 9th June are going to live long in the memory. Depending on how much council pop I drink (been from a council housing estate in Yorkshire, Roger et al think we don't know what Champagne is)
I'm looking forward to the first bong at ten when Dimbleby reveals all.
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.
Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
I'm sure they were both conflicted about what to do, I don't blame them for that. Though months ago some people were arguing that despite saying she was a remainer May only did so because of loyalty and really she had been a leaver all along, which personally I thought was an insult to her - much better that she genuinely thought remain the best option but is now determined to make the best of Brexit and genuinely believes it can go well, than that she lied because of loyalty, when others were happy to be honest.
That's extremely generous of you, K ! Many would go for ambition and political expedience, but you pays your penny....
They have both had a pretty soft ride on the matter. It is indisputable, imo, that a senior Labour politician performing a similar volte face would have suffered a much rougher one.
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.
Is Llanelli broadly working class or quite leafy ?
I would guess more working class. Stuck between the Gower and not west enough for the rural Carmarthenshire/Monmouthshire. I seem to remember it being a bit rubbish when was in south wales as a kid on holidays (but that was a while ago!!)
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.
An eye-watering sum.
Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.
Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.
Very kind of 5live to allow Kier Starmer to bury himself in a dull speech about bending over to everything the EU wants. Eu migration is an amazing thing and we need to give them all rights immediately that we have in the uk as British citizens.
Starmer is a boring and monotonous speaker but he also looks defeated.
Very subdued applause as well
The death throws of labour in full sight
Maybe he saw the results of the sky data poll just before he went on? And found the key offer he was about to announce has a majority against it.
Sky given up on him as he starts to waffle.
Anything they announce will get the same treatment, the electorate has decided if it's red it doesn't want it. The danger for Labour is this getting as bad as Scotland 2015, and they find themselves getting 10-30% just about everywhere and almost nothing to show for it.
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Do we know how much of that was to cover interest?
In January the ONS was projecting £49.1 billion debt interest repayments for 2016/17, up from £45.1 billion in 2015/16.
An eye-watering sum.
Indeed. An obscene obligation on the next generation.
Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.
Starmer is a boring and monotonous speaker but he also looks defeated.
Very subdued applause as well
The death throws of labour in full sight
Maybe he saw the results of the sky data poll just before he went on? And found the key offer he was about to announce has a majority against it.
Sky given up on him as he starts to waffle.
Anything they announce will get the same treatment, the electorate has decided if it's red it doesn't want it. The danger for Labour is this getting as bad as Scotland 2015, and they find themselves getting 10-30% just about everywhere and almost nothing to show for it.
The sky data poll was asked pre the labour announcement and without any mention of which party.
Comments
*not even slightly amazing.
Of course we all remember those febrile days after the Brexit referendum, though some have no doubt drunk deeply of the TRuthy Kool Aid in an effort to forget.
'Posts: 21,367
June 25
JackW said:
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
Nice to see you Jack
I agree on all 3 points.'
Wait a minute, who's this guy?!
'*****_* Posts: 21,352
June 25
williamglenn said:
At this point it's not inconceivable, although unlikely, that Scottish independence could happen without a referendum and with the consent of Westminster.
Westminster would be insane to refuse, which is why people like Bernard Jenkin are talking about it'
I guess some people have principles while others have tribal (if malleable) loyalties.
The Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories!
EDIT: Sorry, here's the link...
https://twitter.com/jamieross7/status/856788178400837632
No Tories have been charged yet, let alone tried.....
At a guess 'No Indiref2' for starters......might be popular - what do you think?
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856612770070056960
Mind you, hardly anyone reads the Nat Onal anymore, so probably no harm done.....
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856788178400837632
Maybe it's because Londoners take the entirely reasonable views that the risk is small and not worth the aggravation. Terrorism is a terrible thing, but the number of lives lost to it in the UK and the US is smaller than that attributable to a number of far more tractable problems - e.g. gun crime in the US and road deaths here.
Macron has the second lowest first round vote for an assumed French President in over sixty years. The only person who received a lower vote was Chirac not long before they attempted to assassinate him.
What mandate will he really have starting from a base of zero in the French legislature?
Stability seems highly unlikely on the continent.
Or are other nations in the EU still beholden to pettier national concerns? Surely not.
With no mention of party positions, majority opposed unconditional. Majority wanted EU rights if only reciprocal agreement for UK citizens in EU ie Tory policy.
But what I want to know is who is going to do something about toddlers?
http://www.snopes.com/toddlers-killed-americans-terrorists/
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
And:
"Clause I, section 4 of the membership section in Labour’s rulebook says: “A member of the party who joins and/ or supports a political organisation other than an official Labour group or other unit of the party, or supports any candidate who stands against an official Labour candidate, or publicly declares their intent to stand against a Labour candidate, shall automatically be ineligible to be or remain a party member.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/23/tony-blair-vote-tory-or-lib-dem-where-they-are-open-minded-on-brexit
So:
1. resign from party
2. stand against Corbyn, and whatever the result
3. rejoin party
Simples.
2. It won't just be councillors. Watch for the mayoral elections in Birmingham, Bristol, Teeside and Manchester.
3. An asteroid wiping out life on earth wouldn't be enough to get rid of Corbyn in time for the GE.
They have both had a pretty soft ride on the matter. It is indisputable, imo, that a senior Labour politician performing a similar volte face would have suffered a much rougher one.
Disaster for Nicola Sturgeon as just one in four Scots support fresh independence vote next year
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3407224/blow-for-nicola-sturgeon-as-just-one-in-four-scots-support-fresh-independence-vote-next-year/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPXHRX8Q2hs
Very subdued applause as well
The death throws of labour in full sight
Sky given up on him as he starts to waffle.
Should be 100% inheritance tax until the debt is paid off.
https://twitter.com/htscotpol/status/856802514984996864
Disastrous own goal for @Open_Britain; prominent pro-EU Tories Morgan, Grieve, Soubry and Carmichael walk out over Brexit MPs target list.