Mr. Bromptonaut, you're aware Muslims also practice circumcision? And that, sometimes, others not of either faith do likewise? [A surprisingly large number of American Christians are circumcised].
Has anyone factored in how EU pronouncements over the next 6.5 weeks might help May?
They are agreeing their initial negotiating position by the end of the month. I suspect that will provide something for May to rally the troops behind that she can make hay with throughout the (month of) May.
I don't see it making much difference.
The Tories are essentially having a free run at the 55% who voted Leave in England and Wales.
Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Plaid are in a bidding war for the 45% who voted Remain.
The SNP have a near free run at the Sindies 44%, while the Tories are gradually winning the battle with Labour and the Libs for the Unionist 56%.
The referendum divides are overwhelmingly benefitting the Tories.
The Conservatives are in a very sweet spot. Lots of Leave voters are converging on them, and they retain plenty of their Remainers.
The interesting thing is, it has happened by accident. Accident of Cameron and Osborne not been able to win their own referendum. Then May becoming leader by virtual coronation. May who is a politician who most people have heard off, but don't know much about. What they do know is "She sounds like one of us and believes in what we believe."
Yes, all unplanned. Could unravel a bit, but right now it's looking great for her.
I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.
I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion.
Whether Macron proves to be good for France only time will sanguine.
The hyperbole about the UK since the Leave vote has truly been something to behold.
Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right
The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.
There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.
There's nothing moderate about a party that won't distance itself from those who call judges the enemies of the people and who describe citizens who disagree with them as saboteurs.
Strictly speaking they cannot control the papers, but TMay clearly encourages that talk given her speech calling for the election and warning the judges. Very poor.
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere
I can see the Conservatives winning Vauxhall with 35% of the vote perhaps.
That would certainly count as jaw dropping. Decapitation Of Keir Starmer would constitute a genuine Portillo moment on many levels. Can't see Dobbos stomping ground going blue though!
I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.
I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion. main sanguine.
The hyperbole about the UK since the Leave vote has truly been something to behold.
Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right flank, most of the main centre 3rd party and is about to eat a slice of the centre-left too.
The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.
There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.
There's nothing moderate about a party that won't distance itself from those who call judges the enemies of the people and who describe citizens who disagree with them as saboteurs.
There's nothing moderate about a party that didn't write a newspaper headline.
Off topic, but I thought I'd give you an exchange I had with a pollster last night.
If it is all about leadership ratings and trust on the economy, and you reverse engineer the VI from that using 2015 as a baseline, the Tory lead should be in the mid 30s.
What a GE night that would be.
Low turnout if it looks that way.
A low turnout of course works well for the tories. Older people vote, younger people don't,
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
The point remains why are posters on political betting, as oppposed to a unionist press, so anxious not to recognise that the findings of the Kantar survey has been overtaken by three more recent polls?
The passing of peak Nat seems to upset some more than others.
Typical...There is rarely a Welsh thread on PB and whenever there is I am travelling somewhere and miss it.... So some belated commnets::
Firstly - Wow...expected something like this but not as dramatic. But some more detailed thoughts...:
This poll was taken (purely conincidentally) just when the GE announcement was made, and the media was full of confident strident Teresa in comparison to bumbling Comrade Corbyn. I expect the gap to narrow.
Specifically with the Local elections coming first there should be gains for Plaid and LDs which will get their faces back in public domain and identify locally where there is a non-Conservative option to Corbyn.
Plaid and to a lesser extent LDs will get more TV coverage during GE itself because of fair coverage rules. UKIP will also but the more that BBC wheel out Neil Hamilton the better.
Most importantly I expect Welsh Labour to distance themselves from UK Labour and wheel out cuddly Carwyn at every opportunity. I would not even rule out a mass resignation of WLab altogether!!
So barring any unexpected moves I would expect Welsh result to become more like:
Seems like a sound take. Things may not turn out as amazingly good for the Tories as indicated right now, but it still seems very good.
Frankly if the Tories manage to fight Labour to an effective draw in Wales it would be amazing for them. Bit like Labour taking about the same number of seats in say East Anglia. If anything like this came to pass I'm sure they would need smelling salts at both Labour and Tory HQ's if for differing reasons.
Wales is without any shadow getting less monolithic as its demographic and employment patterns have changed in the generation(s) since heavy industry was largely replaced by an economy that looks more well (northern) English. The nearest parallel is I think The NE of England, with the added spice that 20% of people speak another language which provides a distinct dynamic in about 10-12 seats. There is a long way to go, it's one poll, and there will doubtless be a large number of folk who find they just cannot go through with actually putting an X in a box next to "Conservative" in somewhere like Cardiff South. Too many grandfathers spinning in too many graves.
I will be keeping a very very close eye on where the PM goes exactly today as she's in S Wales. That might tell us their initial thinking.
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Looking for Labour's firewall? Tricky.
Have you tried St Petersburg?
Got to be inner London, Valleys and the largest northern cities innit?
Has anyone factored in how EU pronouncements over the next 6.5 weeks might help May?
They are agreeing their initial negotiating position by the end of the month. I suspect that will provide something for May to rally the troops behind that she can make hay with throughout the (month of) May.
Labour's helping by unilaterally guaranteeing EU citizens in the UK's rights without any reciprocal promise for UK citizens in the EU.
Wonder how that will go down with the Brits abroad?
Have Labour found another way to lose votes?
I wonder how it will go down with Brits at home.
Weak, weak, weak.
Brits at home specifically voted to put the rights of Brits abroad at risk. Those advocating Leave, however, also said that the rights of EU citizens here should be guaranteed.
Labour suggests UK could stay in EU if Brexit deal not good enough
(Telegraph)
Ok - hands up who thinks that is a sensible negotiating position - or helpful for them to retain working class voters
The alternative stance is leaving the EU even if the deal is a really crap one. Or not getting a deal and then tanking the economy by leaving with no deal in place. Which ones are the Tories advocating?
The point remains why are posters on political betting, as oppposed to a unionist press, so anxious not to recognise that the findings of the Kantar survey has been overtaken by three more recent polls?
The passing of peak Nat seems to upset some more than others.
Malcolm has been v quiet this am...awaiting o orders how to spin it no doubt...
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere
I can see the Conservatives winning Vauxhall with 35% of the vote perhaps.
That would certainly count as jaw dropping. Decapitation Of Keir Starmer would constitute a genuine Portillo moment on many levels. Can't see Dobbos stomping ground going blue though!
I think Labour will generally do less badly in London than elsewhere. I think the Portillo moment will be in Wales, West Midlands, or North East.
"Betting on last Sunday’s winner looks like free money"
I wrote on here yesterday that too many people confuse VALUE with what they WANT to happen. I've no idea who will win and have no interest, but reading this thread will explain why there are far more skint punters than bookies.
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere
I can see the Conservatives winning Vauxhall with 35% of the vote perhaps.
That would certainly count as jaw dropping. Decapitation Of Keir Starmer would constitute a genuine Portillo moment on many levels. Can't see Dobbos stomping ground going blue though!
I think Starmer's majority might actually go up. There is no way on earth he is going to lose. You can quote me on that :-)
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere
I can see the Conservatives winning Vauxhall with 35% of the vote perhaps.
That would certainly count as jaw dropping. Decapitation Of Keir Starmer would constitute a genuine Portillo moment on many levels. Can't see Dobbos stomping ground going blue though!
I think Labour will generally do less badly in London than elsewhere. I think the Portillo moment will be in Wales, West Midlands, or North East.
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The point remains why are posters on political betting, as oppposed to a unionist press, so anxious not to recognise that the findings of the Kantar survey has been overtaken by three more recent polls?
The passing of peak Nat seems to upset some more than others.
And then there's the demographic time bomb that may have done for Labour in Wales....coming to Scotland in the not too distant future....
Has anyone factored in how EU pronouncements over the next 6.5 weeks might help May?
They are agreeing their initial negotiating position by the end of the month. I suspect that will provide something for May to rally the troops behind that she can make hay with throughout the (month of) May.
Labour's helping by unilaterally guaranteeing EU citizens in the UK's rights without any reciprocal promise for UK citizens in the EU.
Wonder how that will go down with the Brits abroad?
Have Labour found another way to lose votes?
I wonder how it will go down with Brits at home.
Weak, weak, weak.
Brits at home specifically voted to put the rights of Brits abroad at risk. Those advocating Leave, however, also said that the rights of EU citizens here should be guaranteed.
Yes but in rawest terms people in the here and now will hear rights for foreigners no protection for Britons. That's how things will be framed and it plays in to what people want to hear right now. Labour could detail fully fund a 10k handout to all citizens and it would be framed as a vote loser. The electorate want to believe labour are a busted flush. Harsh but that's how it is. Tories 95-97 redux
Not only do I know a bit about Scottish polling I used to work for Systems Three many moons ago as a part time job. In these far off days before the internet we had to post our quota of interviews back to base! However they were still more up to date than the current Kantar version!
There is no excuse during an election for presenting a poll as new information when it started surveying ONE MONTH ago and no excuse in the days of electronic media for taking two weeks from survey finish to publication.
Thus I suggest that given we have had THREE POLLS since showing a much different position then we should conclude that Kantar have produced an outlier. In my day this sometimes happened with Systems Three because the political stuff was list in a huge consumer survey about soap powder etc. I don't know if that is still the position with Kantar but since no newspaper seems to be paying for it I suspect that it is.
To repeat three polls since Kantar have shown independence support rising to 49 per cent, 45 per cent and 47 per cent from their own previous surveys while BMG for the Herald showed support for a referendum in the Surgeon timetable at 47 per cent not 27 per cent.
The point remains why are posters on political betting, as oppposed to a unionist press, so anxious not to recognise that the findings of the Kantar survey has been overtaken by three more recent polls?
3 polls this week have Yes at 43%, 40% and 37% ie below 2014 and the SNP is on 43% also well below the 50% it got at the 2015 general election
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.
I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere
I can see the Conservatives winning Vauxhall with 35% of the vote perhaps.
That would certainly count as jaw dropping. Decapitation Of Keir Starmer would constitute a genuine Portillo moment on many levels. Can't see Dobbos stomping ground going blue though!
I think Starmer's majority might actually go up. There is no way on earth he is going to lose. You can quote me on that :-)
Labour suggests UK could stay in EU if Brexit deal not good enough
(Telegraph)
Ok - hands up who thinks that is a sensible negotiating position - or helpful for them to retain working class voters
The alternative stance is leaving the EU even if the deal is a really crap one. Or not getting a deal and then tanking the economy by leaving with no deal in place. Which ones are the Tories advocating?
The worst possible option would be to defy the referendum, if that's Labour's plan then good luck to them.
Has anyone factored in how EU pronouncements over the next 6.5 weeks might help May?
They are agreeing their initial negotiating position by the end of the month. I suspect that will provide something for May to rally the troops behind that she can make hay with throughout the (month of) May.
Labour's helping by unilaterally guaranteeing EU citizens in the UK's rights without any reciprocal promise for UK citizens in the EU.
Wonder how that will go down with the Brits abroad?
Have Labour found another way to lose votes?
I wonder how it will go down with Brits at home.
Weak, weak, weak.
Brits at home specifically voted to put the rights of Brits abroad at risk. Those advocating Leave, however, also said that the rights of EU citizens here should be guaranteed.
Yes but in rawest terms people in the here and now will hear rights for foreigners no protection for Britons. That's how things will be framed and it plays in to what people want to hear right now. Labour could detail fully fund a 10k handout to all citizens and it would be framed as a vote loser. The electorate want to believe labour are a busted flush. Harsh but that's how it is. Tories 95-97 redux
Mr. Bromptonaut, you're aware Muslims also practice circumcision? And that, sometimes, others not of either faith do likewise? [A surprisingly large number of American Christians are circumcised].
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
Blair giving up the Rebate in return for vague talk about reforming the CAP can be used to counter ideas of unilateral concessions.
It's not a concession though - it's anchoring the negotiations. The EU's default position will be that if you want one thing to stay the same, everything else has to stay the same - the four freedoms are indivisible. By unilaterally drawing a line in the sand on free movement, we would not be conceding something, but instead attempting to preempt the negotiations.
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
Blair giving up the Rebate in return for vague talk about reforming the CAP can be used to counter ideas of unilateral concessions.
It's not a concession though - it's anchoring the negotiations. The EU's default position will be that if you want one thing to stay the same, everything else has to stay the same - the four freedoms are indivisible. By unilaterally drawing a line in the sand on free movement, we would not be conceding something, but instead attempting to preempt the negotiations.
Turned out to be utterly meaningless in the end though, didn't it?
Trolling the archives i see that a TNS poll on Sindy published in September 2013 had a headline Yes figure of 34% (25% with DKs included), a 62% certain to vote figure and the majority of respondents saying they voted Labour at the 2011 Holyrood election.
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
Macron will beat Le Pen regardless, though it may be closer than some think however the centre right could turn out strongly in the legislative elections in revenge at Hollande
Labour suggests UK could stay in EU if Brexit deal not good enough
(Telegraph)
Ok - hands up who thinks that is a sensible negotiating position - or helpful for them to retain working class voters
The alternative stance is leaving the EU even if the deal is a really crap one. Or not getting a deal and then tanking the economy by leaving with no deal in place. Which ones are the Tories advocating?
Am pretty sure tanking the economy is only in the Labour manifesto.
Somebody on this site suggested recently that May should follow Napolean's dictum and not distract her opponent from making mistakes. They proposed she should take a six-week walking holiday whilst Corbym did her work for her. I think they were joking, but maybe she should consider it seriously.
Perhaps that's why she's going to Wales. The Brecon Beacons are beautiful this time of year.
The point remains why are posters on political betting, as oppposed to a unionist press, so anxious not to recognise that the findings of the Kantar survey has been overtaken by three more recent polls?
The passing of peak Nat seems to upset some more than others.
Malcolm has been v quiet this am...awaiting o orders how to spin it no doubt...
Was going to offer to settle my bet with him early..
Labour suggests UK could stay in EU if Brexit deal not good enough
(Telegraph)
Ok - hands up who thinks that is a sensible negotiating position - or helpful for them to retain working class voters
The alternative stance is leaving the EU even if the deal is a really crap one. Or not getting a deal and then tanking the economy by leaving with no deal in place. Which ones are the Tories advocating?
The worst possible option would be to defy the referendum, if that's Labour's plan then good luck to them.
The worst possible result would be one that sees the already struggling in this country dropped even deeper into the mire so that a few rich men can indulge their delusions of grandeur. Not that it matters. As we all know, Labour has zero chance of enacting anything.
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The delusion of those who think the referendum result might be ignored continues
Plays into Theresa May's hands for why she called this election... Labour, Lib-Dems, SNP, HoL all "playing games" and trying to thwart the will of the people...
Only she, Mrs May, can enact the referendum result... With support from the British electorate,
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
Blair giving up the Rebate in return for vague talk about reforming the CAP can be used to counter ideas of unilateral concessions.
It's not a concession though - it's anchoring the negotiations. The EU's default position will be that if you want one thing to stay the same, everything else has to stay the same - the four freedoms are indivisible. By unilaterally drawing a line in the sand on free movement, we would not be conceding something, but instead attempting to preempt the negotiations.
Turned out to be utterly meaningless in the end though, didn't it?
The situation with Blair's haggling over the rebate was very different.
Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.
Looking for Labour's firewall? Tricky.
Have you tried St Petersburg?
Start with Liverpool Walton . After that it gets a bit more speculative.....
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.
His election would make the demise of the EU appear a little less likely. Since its collapse would be one of the few plausible outcomes that would make Brexit appear in hindsight a sensible decision, you can see why he's a disappointment to them.
The delusion of those who think the referendum result might be ignored continues
Plays into Theresa May's hands for why she called this election... Labour, Lib-Dems, SNP, HoL all "playing games" and trying to thwart the will of the people...
Only she, Mrs May, can enact the referendum result... With support from the British electorate,
How long until we see the May-Raute on posters across the country?
The delusion of those who think the referendum result might be ignored continues
Given that no sane person on the face of the earth believes that the Tories will not win the election, it is a bit of a stretch to claim that anyone serious believes the referendum result might be ignored. It is legitimate, though, to question a leave at all costs strategy that might see us inflict significant long-term harm on the economy and, more importantly, on millions of people who are already struggling.
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.
His election would make the demise of the EU appear a little less likely. Since its collapse would be one of the few plausible outcomes that would make Brexit appear in hindsight a sensible decision, you can see why he's a disappointment to them.
Wanting a fascist to take power in France because it might cause damage to the EU is not a great look, IMO. What the Brexit right forget, of course, is what Theresa may has said many times: the UK needs a strong EU. Right now, it is in recovery mode and that is helping us. Should that go into reverse we will not be immune.
The delusion of those who think the referendum result might be ignored continues
Given that no sane person on the face of the earth believes that the Tories will not win the election, it is a bit of a stretch to claim that anyone serious believes the referendum result might be ignored. It is legitimate, though, to question a leave at all costs strategy that might see us inflict significant long-term harm on the economy and, more importantly, on millions of people who are already struggling.
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.
His election would make the demise of the EU appear a little less likely. Since its collapse would be one of the few plausible outcomes that would make Brexit appear in hindsight a sensible decision, you can see why he's a disappointment to them.
I think the expectation has always been that the political union of the "core" EU nations (France, Germany, etc.) Is not going to change anytime soon.
The fate of the wider EU is very much still up for grabs though...
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
I suppose guaranteeing EU citizens' right to stay might help Lab a bit in the locals but not so good for the GE
Wanting a fascist to take power in France because it might cause damage to the EU is not a great look, IMO. What the Brexit right forget, of course, is what Theresa may has said many times: the UK needs a strong EU. Right now, it is in recovery mode and that is helping us. Should that go into reverse we will not be immune.
The realisation that a strong EU is in our national interest is only one step removed from the realisation that our national interest is to be a leading player within it, so it's understandable that most Brexit supporters are hazy on this point.
REVISED Rallings and Thrasher NEV projections (change on 2013):
CON 35 (+9) LAB 29 (=) LD 21 (+8) UKIP 8 (-14)
Given the current national polling I find it hard to imagine that Labour will maintain their vote at 2013 levels in the locals. Are there any locals markets anywhere?
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
There's also no apparent taste for a bash the establishment option this time. They are headed back to their core vote of 3% plus a few hangers on from high water 2015
From the Downing Street confidential files, 5th May 1983:
MT: So, my friend, it is the election next month.
JC: Yes.
MT: And you have managed to complete the first stage of your task: to gain the candidature for Islington North?
JC: Yes ma'am, overwhelmingly.
MT: Good, good. (Shuffles in her handbag and checks her makeup in a mirror). I called you in here to conform you know the mission.
JC: I am to destroy the Labour party.
MT: Not destroy. Annihilate. Eradicate.
JC: But if I may, ma'am, how? I will be just one MP.
MT: Oh, do keep up JC! They said you were one of our brightest agents!
JC: It seems an impossible task ma'am. I'll be just one MP against many.
MT: Just one male MP, you mean. It's not as though Labour will ever elect a female leader!
(laughter)
MT: No, we are playing the long game. One of my predecessors put the current Labour leader in place, and he's doing a fine job in destroying his party. It's really a sterling job. Of course I've been helped by the deal I did with the General over that bit of nonsense last year. (winks)
(more laughter)
MT: No, we have to play the long game. As good as the present incumbent is, he's not performed well enough. The Labour Party will arise, and will become a power. We have plans to stifle their popularity: perhaps a war in a far-off country, perhaps over oil? Iran - no, that's America's territory. How about Iraq? Yes, that'll do. We'll wait for a really popular Labour PM to come along, and drop the WMD-bomb. Not a real bomb, obviously.
JC: Not yet, ma'am!
(more laughter)
MT: And you will, of course, be against the war. You will be a figurehead of the far-left of the party, along with agent Benn. You'll bide your time, creeping amongst the shadows, building support. We all know what the far-left are like: the more stupid, the more implausible the policy, the more they like it!
JC: I've had an idea, ma'am. How about ballistic missile submarines without any missiles?
MT: Oh I say! That's rather excellent! Perhaps you are as bright as MI5 claim.
JC: Thank you, ma'am. So I wait, for what?
MT: For the moment when a popular Labour leader mucks up - with a little help from us, of course, but they always do muck up in the end. It's in their genes. You can help: undermine them at every opportunity; vote against them: the best thing is they'll expect you to do it!
(starts to file her claws)
MT: And then, at the right moment, strike! Go for the leadership! Become leader of the Labour party and make them unelectable! Destroy them! Annihilate them in Scotland! Obliterate them in Wales! Smash them in the cities! Make another Labour government an impossibility!
JC: Very good, ma'am. But how about the alliance?
MT: (laughs). Oh don't worry, we have a plan for them as well! The thing with the dog worked well, didn't it?
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.
His election would make the demise of the EU appear a little less likely. Since its collapse would be one of the few plausible outcomes that would make Brexit appear in hindsight a sensible decision, you can see why he's a disappointment to them.
Wanting a fascist to take power in France because it might cause damage to the EU is not a great look, IMO. What the Brexit right forget, of course, is what Theresa may has said many times: the UK needs a strong EU. Right now, it is in recovery mode and that is helping us. Should that go into reverse we will not be immune.
I think the greatest threat to the EU, or at least the Euro, is more likely to come from Italy next year where polls show 5* ahead, Le Pen and Wilders and the AfD etc are largely protest groups, 5* could actually win power
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.
Macron is bad news for Brexit.
If he is bad news for Brexit, then Le Pen would be an unmitigated disaster!
Sorry, Rob, don't quite follow the logic.
Le Pen is anti-EU, so her election would be a serious blow to it, no? So how would that be a disaster for Brexit? Doesn't she just add her name to the list of prominent anti-Eu leaders, such as Trump and Putin?
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.
Macron is bad news for Brexit.
If he is bad news for Brexit, then Le Pen would be an unmitigated disaster!
Sorry, Rob, don't quite follow the logic.
Le Pen is anti-EU, so her election would be a serious blow to it, no? So how would that be a disaster for Brexit? Doesn't she just add her name to the list of prominent anti-Eu leaders, such as Trump and Putin?
Negotiating an exit deal is going to be hard enough. Negotiating one while France is also agitating to leave would be far worse.
Strictly speaking they cannot control the papers, but TMay clearly encourages that talk given her speech calling for the election and warning the judges. Very poor.
There is no "strictly speaking" about it: the government does not control the papers (not here, anyway: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/08/opposition-newspaper-shuts-in-hungary-deepening-media-crackdown/). The "will you condemn..." technique works a bit against politicians who have previously given signs of alignment with the proposed condemnee - as J Corbyn is about to rediscover over Hamas and the IRA - but May did not stand on the steps of No 10 and say that she proposed to govern the country in broad accordance with the editorial principles of the Daily Mail.
The allegations are believed to involve a five-figure sum of money. It is understood the charges against Ms McGarry also relate to her involvement with the SNP Glasgow Regional Association.
'Brave' of Nicola to mention police investigations into Tories when there have already been charges made of an SNP-elected MP.......
From the Downing Street confidential files, 5th May 1983:
MT: So, my friend, it is the election next month.
JC: Yes.
MT: And you have managed to complete the first stage of your task: to gain the candidature for Islington North?
JC: Yes ma'am, overwhelmingly.
MT: Good, good. (Shuffles in her handbag and checks her makeup in a mirror). I called you in here to conform you know the mission.
JC: I am to destroy the Labour party.
MT: Not destroy. Annihilate. Eradicate.
JC: But if I may, ma'am, how? I will be just one MP.
MT: Oh, do keep up JC! They said you were one of our brightest agents!
JC: It seems an impossible task ma'am. I'll be just one MP against many.
MT: Just one male MP, you mean. It's not as though Labour will ever elect a female leader!
(laughter)
MT: No, we are playing the long game. One of my predecessors put the current Labour leader in place, and he's doing a fine job in destroying his party. It's really a sterling job. Of course I've been helped by the deal I did with the General over that bit of nonsense last year. (winks)
(more laughter)
MT: No, we have to play the long game. As good as the present incumbent is, he's not performed well enough. The Labour Party will arise, and will become a power. We have plans to stifle their popularity: perhaps a war in a far-off country, perhaps over oil? Iran - no, that's America's territory. How about Iraq? Yes, that'll do. We'll wait for a really popular Labour PM to come along, and drop the WMD-bomb. Not a real bomb, obviously.
JC: Not yet, ma'am!
(more laughter)
MT: And you will, of course, be against the war. You will be a figurehead of the far-left of the party, along with agent Benn. You'll bide your time, creeping amongst the shadows, building support. We all know what the far-left are like: the more stupid, the more implausible the policy, the more they like it!
JC: I've had an idea, ma'am. How about ballistic missile submarines without any missiles?
MT: Oh I say! That's rather excellent! Perhaps you are as bright as MI5 claim.
JC: Thank you, ma'am. So I wait, for what?
MT: For the moment when a popular Labour leader mucks up - with a little help from us, of course, but they always do muck up in the end. It's in their genes. You can help: undermine them at every opportunity; vote against them: the best thing is they'll expect you to do it!
(starts to file her claws)
MT: And then, at the right moment, strike! Go for the leadership! Become leader of the Labour party and make them unelectable! Destroy them! Annihilate them in Scotland! Obliterate them in Wales! Smash them in the cities! Make another Labour government an impossibility!
JC: Very good, ma'am. But how about the alliance?
MT: (laughs). Oh don't worry, we have a plan for them as well! The thing with the dog worked well, didn't it?
Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere. Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work. The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.
His election would make the demise of the EU appear a little less likely. Since its collapse would be one of the few plausible outcomes that would make Brexit appear in hindsight a sensible decision, you can see why he's a disappointment to them.
I think the expectation has always been that the political union of the "core" EU nations (France, Germany, etc.) Is not going to change anytime soon.
The fate of the wider EU is very much still up for grabs though...
Yes, and who knows, Gin, one day it may revert to a predominantly trade and economic union comprising no more than a dozen or so countries with broadly similar profiles - i.e. something close to what I and many others expected back in its early days, when the UK was being begged to join.
Still wouldn't be a bad thing, in my opinion, but we are where we are.....
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.
Comments
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgoen/status/856589811171373057
Gordon had to wage a cold war within labour for near on a decade.
Have you tried St Petersburg?
Wales is without any shadow getting less monolithic as its demographic and employment patterns have changed in the generation(s) since heavy industry was largely replaced by an economy that looks more well (northern) English. The nearest parallel is I think The NE of England, with the added spice that 20% of people speak another language which provides a distinct dynamic in about 10-12 seats. There is a long way to go, it's one poll, and there will doubtless be a large number of folk who find they just cannot go through with actually putting an X in a box next to "Conservative" in somewhere like Cardiff South. Too many grandfathers spinning in too many graves.
I will be keeping a very very close eye on where the PM goes exactly today as she's in S Wales. That might tell us their initial thinking.
Labour suggests UK could stay in EU if Brexit deal not good enough
(Telegraph)
Ok - hands up who thinks that is a sensible negotiating position - or helpful for them to retain working class voters
Alex has done her up like a kipper...
I wrote on here yesterday that too many people confuse VALUE with what they WANT to happen. I've no idea who will win and have no interest, but reading this thread will explain why there are far more skint punters than bookies.
https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/856774782506893312
One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere.
Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.
The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/856783448614342657
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/856784812744609792
Perhaps that's why she's going to Wales. The Brecon Beacons are beautiful this time of year.
CON 35 (+9)
LAB 29 (=)
LD 21 (+8)
UKIP 8 (-14)
Only she, Mrs May, can enact the referendum result... With support from the British electorate,
Rallings and Thrasher
CON +115 LD +85 LAB -75 UKIP -105
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
The fate of the wider EU is very much still up for grabs though...
When the Tories heard Corbyn was doing Marr they cleared their Monday media grid.
Normal rules do not apply.
MT: So, my friend, it is the election next month.
JC: Yes.
MT: And you have managed to complete the first stage of your task: to gain the candidature for Islington North?
JC: Yes ma'am, overwhelmingly.
MT: Good, good. (Shuffles in her handbag and checks her makeup in a mirror). I called you in here to conform you know the mission.
JC: I am to destroy the Labour party.
MT: Not destroy. Annihilate. Eradicate.
JC: But if I may, ma'am, how? I will be just one MP.
MT: Oh, do keep up JC! They said you were one of our brightest agents!
JC: It seems an impossible task ma'am. I'll be just one MP against many.
MT: Just one male MP, you mean. It's not as though Labour will ever elect a female leader!
(laughter)
MT: No, we are playing the long game. One of my predecessors put the current Labour leader in place, and he's doing a fine job in destroying his party. It's really a sterling job. Of course I've been helped by the deal I did with the General over that bit of nonsense last year. (winks)
(more laughter)
MT: No, we have to play the long game. As good as the present incumbent is, he's not performed well enough. The Labour Party will arise, and will become a power. We have plans to stifle their popularity: perhaps a war in a far-off country, perhaps over oil? Iran - no, that's America's territory. How about Iraq? Yes, that'll do. We'll wait for a really popular Labour PM to come along, and drop the WMD-bomb. Not a real bomb, obviously.
JC: Not yet, ma'am!
(more laughter)
MT: And you will, of course, be against the war. You will be a figurehead of the far-left of the party, along with agent Benn. You'll bide your time, creeping amongst the shadows, building support. We all know what the far-left are like: the more stupid, the more implausible the policy, the more they like it!
JC: I've had an idea, ma'am. How about ballistic missile submarines without any missiles?
MT: Oh I say! That's rather excellent! Perhaps you are as bright as MI5 claim.
JC: Thank you, ma'am. So I wait, for what?
MT: For the moment when a popular Labour leader mucks up - with a little help from us, of course, but they always do muck up in the end. It's in their genes. You can help: undermine them at every opportunity; vote against them: the best thing is they'll expect you to do it!
(starts to file her claws)
MT: And then, at the right moment, strike! Go for the leadership! Become leader of the Labour party and make them unelectable! Destroy them! Annihilate them in Scotland! Obliterate them in Wales! Smash them in the cities! Make another Labour government an impossibility!
JC: Very good, ma'am. But how about the alliance?
MT: (laughs). Oh don't worry, we have a plan for them as well! The thing with the dog worked well, didn't it?
Le Pen is anti-EU, so her election would be a serious blow to it, no? So how would that be a disaster for Brexit? Doesn't she just add her name to the list of prominent anti-Eu leaders, such as Trump and Putin?
Basically what would the VI look like if there was a general election based on the result of the locals.
It is understood the charges against Ms McGarry also relate to her involvement with the SNP Glasgow Regional Association.
'Brave' of Nicola to mention police investigations into Tories when there have already been charges made of an SNP-elected MP.......
https://twitter.com/rossthomsonmsp/status/856790162906509313
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/25/us-considers-banning-laptops-on-flights-from-uk-airports
Still wouldn't be a bad thing, in my opinion, but we are where we are.....
Initial estimates indicate that in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), the public sector borrowed £52.0 billion or 2.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was £20.0 billion lower than in the previous financial year and around a third of that in the financial year ending March 2010 when borrowing was £151.7 billion or 9.9 % of GDP.