In the wake of the implosion of the cross - party Open Britain (the Tories have quit over the constituency hit-list) :
Change Britain, the Brexit-backing rival to Open Britain, sensibly says it will sit out the election:
“Change Britain will be standing aside during the election period. We are a genuine cross-party campaign and therefore do not believe it is our place to encourage the public to vote for certain candidates during a general election. We will work with whoever gets elected after June 8th to ensure the referendum result is respected.”
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
It is over. They can say and do nothing now to stop the blood bath that is coming.
No special over night coverage of the local elections on BBC on May 4 BBC Two starts coverage at 9am on Friday - not sure if SKY News are covering the locals over night
No special over night coverage of the local elections on BBC on May 4 BBC Two starts coverage at 9am on Friday - not sure if SKY News are covering the locals over night
The English counties mostly used to count in the daytime, partly tradition and partly geography. I don't know whether that is true this time but guess that it may be.
@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.
Good morning, everybody.
How would he know?
You wouldn't expect Labour to have selected candidates in the West Country - they have no chance of winning any of the seats (apart from Exeter); this is just the LDs trying to build a narrative that it's not worth voting Labour so you should vote LibDem - which is probably true!
Frank field on sky talking about child hunger. I have a lot of time for frank, but despite giving a huge estimated figure he is unable to give any clue of what proportion is down to poverty and which is due to neglect by parents. Simply throwing more money at giving out more free food doesn't tackle the later, as if parents are neglecting their kids such that they don't feed them, they will be neglecting them in all sorts of ways.
Giving food to hungry children does stop them being hungry.
Remember folks, Tories still don't have any councillors in Manchester city, sheffield, Liverpool or Newcastle....just how will they gain a majority.....
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
Need to differentiate ourselves as the party of 'Soft Brexit'.
It's the same policy as the Tories. Tariff free access to a single market we aren't a member of. We won't get it because the EU can't offer it. It's a policy for hard Brexit. It'll see us destroyed from remainers and destroyed by leavers.
It's 1997 in reverse. Tories will win seats they haven't held for a generation
In a joint statement issued by Ms Morgan this morning, the four Conservatives [Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve and Neil Carmichael] said: “As long standing Conservative party members and MPs it is untenable for us to play any further role in an organisation, such as Open Britain, which is advocating campaigning against Conservative MPs or candidates.l and we will not be doing so.”
Mr Grieve, who served as Attorney General in David Cameron's government, told PoliticsHome he and his colleagues had not been told about the proposals.
“I’m absolutely astonished and appalled to learn that Open Britain has come out in favour of campaigning against certain MPs of different political parties," he said.
"This was not the purpose for which the organisation was created, there has been no consultation about the matter and I disassociate myself completely from this aim and will have nothing to do with it.”
Although the 'key seat strategy' is billed as a cross-party campaign against Theresa May's plans for Brexit, 18 of the 20 seats on a list published this morning are Conservatives.
Says the man living in and lauding the country where about 35-40% are about to vote fascist.
Is she any more fascist than Farage who got 52% voting for the UKIP option?
It wasn't Farage that got 52% though, was it? The UKIP option (popularly known as 'UKIP'), got 13% in 2015 and is struggling in mid-single figures right now.
Gove was clearly the instigator but Leave won because people like David Owen, Gisela Stuart, Digby-Jones, Stodge, DavidL and Robert Smithson were backing it. I could throw in the likes of John Cleese, Bryan Adams, and Simon Le Bon as well, if it wasn't so tacky to do so.
In other words, a minority (but a strong enough one) of middle-class professionals, moderates, and centrists from all parties, in addition to the disillusioned.
A lesson that far too many (lazy) commentators never fail to forget when tried to draw exact equivalence between Brexit, Trump and Le Pen.
Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies. No amount of rewriting of history will work.
You don't give the working class much credit to process the lies from both sides and make up their own minds. I don't think you really understand the working class. In my experience, the feelings that led to vote long brexit have been fueled over 15 years, not 15 weeks, by decisions taken by politicians of all colours.
There are lies and then there are lies that allows people to blame their shortcomings and their failures on other folk (i.e. immigrants and darkies).
The problem over a long period of time is/has been educational aspiration among the white working class (c.f. the immigrant working class) - it is near on non-existent. That is the biggest crime that both parties have failed to address over the last 40 years or so.
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.
Since the EU is the most cultured, benevolent and noble organisation on earth, all part from the UK united in being so cultured and benevolent, I don't see why they cannot collectively come to such a decision very quickly indeed. Or are other nations in the EU still beholden to pettier national concerns? Surely not.
Imagine being black-balled at Whites and you'll get the picture
I don't understand what you mean.
He means it would only take one country in EU27 to say no. But how many Brits go to Lithuania and Bulgaria anyway?
And by the way, Roger, the club is called "White's", not "Whites".
@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.
Good morning, everybody.
How would he know?
You wouldn't expect Labour to have selected candidates in the West Country - they have no chance of winning any of the seats (apart from Exeter); this is just the LDs trying to build a narrative that it's not worth voting Labour so you should vote LibDem - which is probably true!
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
It is over. They can say and do nothing now to stop the blood bath that is coming.
Now that is hubris
But it is true. This is a referendum about Corbyn and there is only one possible result.
No special over night coverage of the local elections on BBC on May 4 BBC Two starts coverage at 9am on Friday - not sure if SKY News are covering the locals over night
The English counties mostly used to count in the daytime, partly tradition and partly geography. I don't know whether that is true this time but guess that it may be.
But there's also Welsh and Scottish elections, and mayoral ones too...
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
It is over. They can say and do nothing now to stop the blood bath that is coming.
Now that is hubris
Not at all - the reports from all over the UK show TM as popular as Tony Blair was in 1997 including my Scottish family, factor in Corbyn and it is all over
I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.
While it is within our power to decide the status of EU citizens here, once we Brexit then the status of Britons In EU countries becomes a competence of 27 individual countries, not an EU competence.
Just as we can have different statuses for Australians vs Nigerians, each EU country can decide for itself the status of non-EU citizens.
This is not a bilateral discussion with the EU, but rather bilateral between nations, and very possible that the Germans feel different to the Bulgarians on.
That's a very good point which I haven't heard before. It makes waiting for a reciprocal arrangement with the EU a nonsense. Surprising none of the Johnson Fox Davis May brains trust thought to mention it.
It's a very bad point. There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of the EU27 not having a 100% common position on this.
Isn't it just an attempt to kill 27 birds with one stone so that we don't have to indulge in separate negotiations?
I am fairly sure that they are aware that we can cause division among them by treating different nationalities in different ways if we choose.
Additionally, there is potential for them to fall out with each other if individual EU nations start bargaining with us in isolation.
Sophie Walker from the Women's Equality Party is extremely effective (Sky News). She is completed wasted in a niche party. Should find a mainstream party from which to advance her ideas.
@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.
Good morning, everybody.
How would he know?
You wouldn't expect Labour to have selected candidates in the West Country - they have no chance of winning any of the seats (apart from Exeter); this is just the LDs trying to build a narrative that it's not worth voting Labour so you should vote LibDem - which is probably true!
Nevertheless the LibDems already had temporary selections made in a lot of seats - not just the obvious targets - in anticipation of a possible 2017 election, and also an already agreeed fast track process for allowing 2015 candidates to stand again if they wished, subject to confirmation by local party executives. As with other aspects of campaign organisation it appears Labour is unprepared and left standing (or not standing!).
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
Need to differentiate ourselves as the party of 'Soft Brexit'.
It's the same policy as the Tories. Tariff free access to a single market we aren't a member of. We won't get it because the EU can't offer it. It's a policy for hard Brexit. It'll see us destroyed from remainers and destroyed by leavers.
It's 1997 in reverse. Tories will win seats they haven't held for a generation
"In a generation" - since 1997 in fact!
1992 wasn't a high water mark in terms of Tory seats
In a joint statement issued by Ms Morgan this morning, the four Conservatives [Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve and Neil Carmichael] said: “As long standing Conservative party members and MPs it is untenable for us to play any further role in an organisation, such as Open Britain, which is advocating campaigning against Conservative MPs or candidates.l and we will not be doing so.”
Mr Grieve, who served as Attorney General in David Cameron's government, told PoliticsHome he and his colleagues had not been told about the proposals.
“I’m absolutely astonished and appalled to learn that Open Britain has come out in favour of campaigning against certain MPs of different political parties," he said.
"This was not the purpose for which the organisation was created, there has been no consultation about the matter and I disassociate myself completely from this aim and will have nothing to do with it.”
Although the 'key seat strategy' is billed as a cross-party campaign against Theresa May's plans for Brexit, 18 of the 20 seats on a list published this morning are Conservatives.
Sophie Walker from the Women's Equality Party is extremely effective (Sky News). She is completed wasted in a niche party. Should find a mainstream party from which to advance her ideas.
@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.
Good morning, everybody.
Great news. Let's give the Lib Dems a clear run at Eustice & co.
No special over night coverage of the local elections on BBC on May 4 BBC Two starts coverage at 9am on Friday - not sure if SKY News are covering the locals over night
The English counties mostly used to count in the daytime, partly tradition and partly geography. I don't know whether that is true this time but guess that it may be.
Remember folks, Tories still don't have any councillors in Manchester city, sheffield, Liverpool or Newcastle....just how will they gain a majority.....
Sophie Walker from the Women's Equality Party is extremely effective (Sky News). She is completed wasted in a niche party. Should find a mainstream party from which to advance her ideas.
Isn't it just an attempt to kill 27 birds with one stone so that we don't have to indulge in separate negotiations?
I am fairly sure that they are aware that we can cause division among them by treating different nationalities in different ways if we choose.
Additionally, there is potential for them to fall out with each other if individual EU nations start bargaining with us in isolation.
They won't fall out on this, believe me. It's a principle to which they'll attach a quasi-religious importance. Even if it wasn't, it's not something where their interests diverge markedly, although it's more important to some than to others.
@JenWilliamsMEN: Am hearing Corbynite Katy Clark may be parachuted into Leigh. Various deals currently being done by the NEC re vacant seats
Does that mean that the socialists are giving up on Leigh? A Labour heartland if ever I saw one..... eeks .... I went to a wedding there once, many years ago, but managed to escape early to attend a football match.
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.
Good morning, everybody.
How would he know?
You wouldn't expect Labour to have selected candidates in the West Country - they have no chance of winning any of the seats (apart from Exeter); this is just the LDs trying to build a narrative that it's not worth voting Labour so you should vote LibDem - which is probably true!
Nevertheless the LibDems already had temporary selections made in a lot of seats - not just the obvious targets - in anticipation of a possible 2017 election, and also an already agreeed fast track process for allowing 2015 candidates to stand again if they wished, subject to confirmation by local party executives. As with other aspects of campaign organisation it appears Labour is unprepared and left standing (or not standing!).
As do the Tories - but at this stage a limited number of candidates are selected and very few in unwinnable seats - which are what these seats are for Labour. The Lib Dems are strong in the West Country so ought to be ready. I agree Labour are a shambles - I just this particular story is pretty meaningless.
... I have seen a breakdown of how Melenchon's vote is likely to split and recall it's about 3:1 in favor of Macron. Unfortunately I don't remember where I saw it (but I do remember being surprised it wasn't closer to 50/50) so I can't give you a link.....
That sounds about right. What you have to remember is that, for the Left, Le Pen is cultural anathema. It doesn't matter that her policies and Mélenchon's are actually quite similar in many ways, it's a tribal/identity thing, and they view Le Pen as fascist and racist, without noticing the similarity in the mirror.
BTW Great to see you back and kicking!
Thanks Richard.
Yes, I've always thought Melenchon's gang had an element which was not at all inimical to a little fascism and racism, which I guess is why he's somewhat conflicted as regards support for Macron in the run-off.
Thank you too for your warm words. Had I known how much I'd be welcomed back, I would have left sooner. Perhaps I should use this opportunity to dispel any suspicion that my absence was due to ill-health, or some kind of dispute. I'm fine, just doing other things and was happy to leave the argument to others. I plan to keep a low-profile, if I can resist the temptations, but of course if Jeremy Corbyn barnstorms into No 10......!!!!!
I am fairly sure that they are aware that we can cause division among them by treating different nationalities in different ways if we choose.
That could rapidly turn into a case of Britain pissing on its own chips.
Precisely. The UK seems to have forgotten one of the cardinal laws of politics that nothing creates unity like a common enemy. Volunteering for that role is foolhardy when we are beholden to the EU for a deal.
The Starmer stuff about the EU citizens is a breath of fresh air. It's not enough to make me vote for them (Corbyn), but the party is at least on the right side of the argument for once.
STILL no constituency markets from Ladbrokes and frankly pretty thin gruel from them generally as regards their political markets - just the really basic stuff.
All very unShadsy like, from someone who's usually well ahead of the game. Surely he can't have been head-hunted can he?
Shadsy is very wise indeed. There are times when the only sensible course of action for a bookie is "no bet".
STILL no constituency markets from Ladbrokes and frankly pretty thin gruel from them generally as regards their political markets - just the really basic stuff.
All very unShadsy like, from someone who's usually well ahead of the game. Surely he can't have been head-hunted can he?
Shadsy is very wise indeed. There are times when the only sensible course of action for a bookie is "no bet".
I was always given to understand that the skill of a bookmaker was to offer a range of bets so that taken together these produced an overround by which he was guaranteed a profit. I don't see how you can ever make a profit by not offering the markets. Are you suggesting that those bookies who have stolen a march on Ladbrokes are all mugs and set to take a real shellacking?
The Starmer stuff about the EU citizens is a breath of fresh air. It's not enough to make me vote for them (Corbyn), but the party is at least on the right side of the argument for once.
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
It is over. They can say and do nothing now to stop the blood bath that is coming.
None of that sort of talk until the morning of 9th June, please.
Mr. Glenn, if the EU doesn't have the ability to agree common treatment of UK citizens in EU nations, then we'll necessarily have to go on a country-by-country basis...
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
It is over. They can say and do nothing now to stop the blood bath that is coming.
None of that sort of talk until the morning of 9th June, please.
Never take the voters for granted.
It is only the size of win that is unclear but win it is
The Starmer stuff about the EU citizens is a breath of fresh air. It's not enough to make me vote for them (Corbyn), but the party is at least on the right side of the argument for once.
29% in Sky poll - 55% wrong
It is morally and economically the right thing to do.
You could ask about hanging and I'm fairly sure that 60%+ would think it would be right to bring it back. Does that make it right though?
Politics is not always about being populist, it is about doing the right thing.
It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.
UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.
Prepare for the shrewdies to tell you that Farage was actually a negative for UKIP, as they told me daily 2013-2016
I think they told you Farage was a negative for Leave, not UKIP.
Farage was just what UKIP needed to go from inconsequential deposit losing to teens. Leave needed people to take them to a majority of the nation, that was Boris not Farage.
Yes, the Boris/Cameron rivalry has a lot to answer for.
If Boris has been remain, May might well have been for Leave.
Boris was a pro-Remain Mayor of London.
She isn't the only one that changes her mind.
I'm sure they were both conflicted about what to do, I don't blame them for that. Though months ago some people were arguing that despite saying she was a remainer May only did so because of loyalty and really she had been a leaver all along, which personally I thought was an insult to her - much better that she genuinely thought remain the best option but is now determined to make the best of Brexit and genuinely believes it can go well, than that she lied because of loyalty, when others were happy to be honest.
That's extremely generous of you, K ! Many would go for ambition and political expedience, but you pays your penny....
They have both had a pretty soft ride on the matter. It is indisputable, imo, that a senior Labour politician performing a similar volte face would have suffered a much rougher one.
If she had leadership ambitions (and she clearly did), then the cynical option was to back Leave given that at least 2/3 of the Conservative Party's membership was that way inclined.
I think May saw herself as neither.
I think her campaigning was very telling. She genuinely was Remain but wasn't at all enthusiastic about it. It was a pragmatic decision in which the disbenefits of one option marginally outweighed the disbenefits of the other.
She was being (small c) conservative. Like many millions of others.
The Starmer stuff about the EU citizens is a breath of fresh air. It's not enough to make me vote for them (Corbyn), but the party is at least on the right side of the argument for once.
29% in Sky poll - 55% wrong
It is morally and economically the right thing to do.
You could ask about hanging and I'm fairly sure that 60%+ would think it would be right to bring it back. Does that make it right though?
Politics is not always about being populist, it is about doing the right thing.
55% say it is wrong and it is - you cannot abandon the Brits abroad
Frank field on sky talking about child hunger. I have a lot of time for frank, but despite giving a huge estimated figure he is unable to give any clue of what proportion is down to poverty and which is due to neglect by parents. Simply throwing more money at giving out more free food doesn't tackle the later, as if parents are neglecting their kids such that they don't feed them, they will be neglecting them in all sorts of ways.
Giving food to hungry children does stop them being hungry.
Maybe in the short term but it creates a dependency trap by reducing their incentive to hunt rodents and other small mammals.
Ladbrokes has moved Formula 1 from Motorsport to its own category. Just discovered this, thought I'd mention it in case anyone else was wondering where it was.
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
It is over. They can say and do nothing now to stop the blood bath that is coming.
None of that sort of talk until the morning of 9th June, please.
The Starmer stuff about the EU citizens is a breath of fresh air. It's not enough to make me vote for them (Corbyn), but the party is at least on the right side of the argument for once.
You think the right side of the argument is to protect EU citizens in the Uk and abandon negotiting clout re UK citizens in the EU ?
The Starmer stuff about the EU citizens is a breath of fresh air. It's not enough to make me vote for them (Corbyn), but the party is at least on the right side of the argument for once.
29% in Sky poll - 55% wrong
It is morally and economically the right thing to do.
You could ask about hanging and I'm fairly sure that 60%+ would think it would be right to bring it back. Does that make it right though?
Politics is not always about being populist, it is about doing the right thing.
Ladbrokes has moved Formula 1 from Motorsport to its own category. Just discovered this, thought I'd mention it in case anyone else was wondering where it was.
The Starmer stuff about the EU citizens is a breath of fresh air. It's not enough to make me vote for them (Corbyn), but the party is at least on the right side of the argument for once.
It makes no sense at all. Not only does it leave British citizens in limbo, it doesn't even work on its own terms. What rights exactly, from what date, would the UK unilaterally guarantee? And who would pay for their healthcare? What's he going to do if our EU friends say 'Thank you very much, but as part of the deal we want huge healthcare payments for UK citizens in our countries?" If he says, "Hang on, then we want to do the same for EU citizens here", then his unilateral guarantee is meaningless. Alternatively, if he really means what he says, then he's inviting the EU27 to walk all over us on the detail. The man is either a complete idiot, or, more likely, is cynically playing to what he sees as his gallery.
Equally, his position on the final deal is irrational. He said on the Today programme that if the deal's not good enough, parliament should send it back for renegotiation. What the hell is the point of that? Our EU friends would just buff their nails, point to the Article 50 clock, and say 'That's the deal. Time's up. And, since you've already said that leaving with no deal is unacceptable, sign here'.
The Starmer stuff about the EU citizens is a breath of fresh air. It's not enough to make me vote for them (Corbyn), but the party is at least on the right side of the argument for once.
29% in Sky poll - 55% wrong
It is morally and economically the right thing to do.
You could ask about hanging and I'm fairly sure that 60%+ would think it would be right to bring it back. Does that make it right though?
Politics is not always about being populist, it is about doing the right thing.
55% say it is wrong and it is - you cannot abandon the Brits abroad
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.
Good morning, everybody.
It's bollocks. There are zero approved candidates anywhere (apart from MPs who said they wanted to stand again). Labour is selecting its candidates on Thursday. We were all asked to put in applications by noon Sunday; the selection bodies are working on them up to tomorrow; on Thursday they go to the NEC for approval.
Report on differential voting turnout by age cohort:
At the last General Election in 2015, 67 per cent of baby boomers voted, compared to 56 per cent of generation X and just 46 per cent of millennials of voting age. Combined with the impact of their large cohort size, this resulted in a four million person ballot box advantage for the baby boomers over the millennials. The superficial correlation between generational voting blocs and the tax and benefit policies being implemented this parliament, which deliver a net benefit to those aged 55-75 set against large losses for those aged 20-40, is evident.
There's a report in the Western Morning News today (paper copy so no link, sorry) that Labour has yet to select a single candidate in Cornwall and has 15 constituencies in Devon & Somerset. The paper reports that Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Chief Whip, claims that approved candidates are refusing to run under a party led by Mr Corbyn. Mr Brake claims that 'Labour is giving up on the Westcountry'.
Good morning, everybody.
It's bollocks. There are zero approved candidates anywhere (apart from MPs who said they wanted to stand again). Labour is selecting its candidates on Thursday. We were all asked to put in applications by noon Sunday; the selection bodies are working on them up to tomorrow; on Thursday they go to the NEC for approval.
The Starmer stuff about the EU citizens is a breath of fresh air. It's not enough to make me vote for them (Corbyn), but the party is at least on the right side of the argument for once.
29% in Sky poll - 55% wrong
It is morally and economically the right thing to do.
You could ask about hanging and I'm fairly sure that 60%+ would think it would be right to bring it back. Does that make it right though?
Politics is not always about being populist, it is about doing the right thing.
Wonder why EU are also not doing the right thing.
They will - it's about taking the high ground first.
It's gestures like this that would ease the negotiations going forward. You have to remember we are in an incredibly weak position viz. the Brexit negotiations.
Anyway, understand that I will be in a minority on a blog with a right-wing bias but hey-ho.
I am fairly sure that they are aware that we can cause division among them by treating different nationalities in different ways if we choose.
That could rapidly turn into a case of Britain pissing on its own chips.
Precisely. The UK seems to have forgotten one of the cardinal laws of politics that nothing creates unity like a common enemy. Volunteering for that role is foolhardy when we are beholden to the EU for a deal.
Again you talk as though it's entirely a one way street and Britain has no cards to play at all.
We may be "beholden" to them for a deal but they are "beholden" to us as well (especially for European defense and security but in other ways too)
It's in everyone's interests that a sensible deal is reached. Which is why, for all the bluster on both sides, a sensible compromise will be negotiated.
Mr. Pulpstar, think the Lib Dems will lose Richmond Park?
I've not bet on it. Could well be the Solihull de nos jours though - I'm cautiously optimistic about Olney's chances though...
Lib Dem Gain Twickenham and Richmond Park (Perhaps Surbiton too) would be great news for the Tories I think though. It'd mean a bit of a realignement (Given the massive Tory lead in national polling, the Tories have to be gaining votes elsewhere) which might stuff Labour further in the Brexitshire.
So, there are 360,000 out of work EU nationals claiming benefit in the UK. Are we suggesting that this continues while the EU wages economic war on us?
The Starmer stuff about the EU citizens is a breath of fresh air. It's not enough to make me vote for them (Corbyn), but the party is at least on the right side of the argument for once.
29% in Sky poll - 55% wrong
It is morally and economically the right thing to do.
You could ask about hanging and I'm fairly sure that 60%+ would think it would be right to bring it back. Does that make it right though?
Politics is not always about being populist, it is about doing the right thing.
Wonder why EU are also not doing the right thing.
They will - it's about taking the high ground first.
It's gestures like this that would ease the negotiations going forward. You have to remember we are in an incredibly weak position viz. the Brexit negotiations.
Anyway, understand that I will be in a minority on a blog with a right-wing bias but hey-ho.
When should we expect this unilateral guarantee of the rights of British nationals living in the EU?
I am fairly sure that they are aware that we can cause division among them by treating different nationalities in different ways if we choose.
That could rapidly turn into a case of Britain pissing on its own chips.
Precisely. The UK seems to have forgotten one of the cardinal laws of politics that nothing creates unity like a common enemy. Volunteering for that role is foolhardy when we are beholden to the EU for a deal.
Again you talk as though it's entirely a one way street and Britain has no cards to play at all.
Which cards do we have that do not hurt us more than they hurt them if we play them?
I am fairly sure that they are aware that we can cause division among them by treating different nationalities in different ways if we choose.
That could rapidly turn into a case of Britain pissing on its own chips.
Precisely. The UK seems to have forgotten one of the cardinal laws of politics that nothing creates unity like a common enemy. Volunteering for that role is foolhardy when we are beholden to the EU for a deal.
Again you talk as though it's entirely a one way street and Britain has no cards to play at all.
We may be "beholden" to them for a deal but they are "beholden" to us as well (especially for European defense and security but in other ways too)
It's in everyone's interests that a sensible deal it reached. Which is why, for all the bluster on both sides, a sensible compromise will be negotiated.
That's right, Gin. They're sure to make us an offer we can't refuse.
The Starmer stuff about the EU citizens is a breath of fresh air. It's not enough to make me vote for them (Corbyn), but the party is at least on the right side of the argument for once.
29% in Sky poll - 55% wrong
It is morally and economically the right thing to do.
You could ask about hanging and I'm fairly sure that 60%+ would think it would be right to bring it back. Does that make it right though?
Politics is not always about being populist, it is about doing the right thing.
Wonder why EU are also not doing the right thing.
They will - it's about taking the high ground first.
It's gestures like this that would ease the negotiations going forward. You have to remember we are in an incredibly weak position viz. the Brexit negotiations.
Anyway, understand that I will be in a minority on a blog with a right-wing bias but hey-ho.
To be fair Sky's data poll this morning showing 55% wrong is hardly a right wing blog
Mr. Pulpstar, fair enough. I was thinking of adding a bit more to the Conservatives at 6/4, but if they pick Goldsmith I think the odds will lengthen, so I'm waiting to see.
Disagree - I think it's a step in the right direction. Labour's performance in the referendum is the root issue. They f*cked up and struggling to recover from that.
It is over. They can say and do nothing now to stop the blood bath that is coming.
None of that sort of talk until the morning of 9th June, please.
Never take the voters for granted.
It is only the size of win that is unclear but win it is
I am fairly sure that they are aware that we can cause division among them by treating different nationalities in different ways if we choose.
That could rapidly turn into a case of Britain pissing on its own chips.
Precisely. The UK seems to have forgotten one of the cardinal laws of politics that nothing creates unity like a common enemy. Volunteering for that role is foolhardy when we are beholden to the EU for a deal.
Again you talk as though it's entirely a one way street and Britain has no cards to play at all.
We may be "beholden" to them for a deal but they are "beholden" to us as well (especially for European defense and security but in other ways too)
It's in everyone's interests that a sensible deal is reached. Which is why, for all the bluster on both sides, a sensible compromise will be negotiated.
Disagree, the EU will take a smallish hit on their nose to spite their face.
A deal favourable to the UK would set a precedent - just not going to happen. We will get a deal all right but it will be a crap deal for us and we will have to take it on the chin. Hence the madness and craziness of Brexit but we have been though the loop a million times on here so why waste the time.
Sophie Walker from the Women's Equality Party is extremely effective (Sky News). She is completed wasted in a niche party. Should find a mainstream party from which to advance her ideas.
I think the Womens Equality party backed the Lib Dem in Richmond by-election.
No special over night coverage of the local elections on BBC on May 4 BBC Two starts coverage at 9am on Friday - not sure if SKY News are covering the locals over night
That cannot be right, surely?
Many counts are held over until the Friday morning.
Comments
Change Britain, the Brexit-backing rival to Open Britain, sensibly says it will sit out the election:
“Change Britain will be standing aside during the election period. We are a genuine cross-party campaign and therefore do not believe it is our place to encourage the public to vote for certain candidates during a general election. We will work with whoever gets elected after June 8th to ensure the referendum result is respected.”
https://order-order.com/2017/04/25/open-britain-falls-apart-tory-mps-quit-group/
In a joint statement issued by Ms Morgan this morning, the four Conservatives [Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry, Dominic Grieve and Neil Carmichael] said: “As long standing Conservative party members and MPs it is untenable for us to play any further role in an organisation, such as Open Britain, which is advocating campaigning against Conservative MPs or candidates.l and we will not be doing so.”
Mr Grieve, who served as Attorney General in David Cameron's government, told PoliticsHome he and his colleagues had not been told about the proposals.
“I’m absolutely astonished and appalled to learn that Open Britain has come out in favour of campaigning against certain MPs of different political parties," he said.
"This was not the purpose for which the organisation was created, there has been no consultation about the matter and I disassociate myself completely from this aim and will have nothing to do with it.”
Although the 'key seat strategy' is billed as a cross-party campaign against Theresa May's plans for Brexit, 18 of the 20 seats on a list published this morning are Conservatives.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/85379/top-tories-abandon-pro-eu-campaign-group
The problem over a long period of time is/has been educational aspiration among the white working class (c.f. the immigrant working class) - it is near on non-existent. That is the biggest crime that both parties have failed to address over the last 40 years or so.
And by the way, Roger, the club is called "White's", not "Whites".
I am fairly sure that they are aware that we can cause division among them by treating different nationalities in different ways if we choose.
Additionally, there is potential for them to fall out with each other if individual EU nations start bargaining with us in isolation.
https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/856813365238407168
I'd be astonished if it was lost given the Wales poll.
Yes, I've always thought Melenchon's gang had an element which was not at all inimical to a little fascism and racism, which I guess is why he's somewhat conflicted as regards support for Macron in the run-off.
Thank you too for your warm words. Had I known how much I'd be welcomed back, I would have left sooner. Perhaps I should use this opportunity to dispel any suspicion that my absence was due to ill-health, or some kind of dispute. I'm fine, just doing other things and was happy to leave the argument to others. I plan to keep a low-profile, if I can resist the temptations, but of course if Jeremy Corbyn barnstorms into No 10......!!!!!
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/856813702032523265
I don't see how you can ever make a profit by not offering the markets.
Are you suggesting that those bookies who have stolen a march on Ladbrokes are all mugs and set to take a real shellacking?
Never take the voters for granted.
Mr. Glenn, if the EU doesn't have the ability to agree common treatment of UK citizens in EU nations, then we'll necessarily have to go on a country-by-country basis...
https://twitter.com/spectator/status/856818463603654657
You could ask about hanging and I'm fairly sure that 60%+ would think it would be right to bring it back. Does that make it right though?
Politics is not always about being populist, it is about doing the right thing.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
Take a look at the Lib Dem seats.
Ceredigion, Hallam, Westmorland, Leeds NW, Orkney and Shetland safe
Norfolk North close
Carshalton, Southport, () lost 2 losses to
Cambridge, Burnley, Bermondsey, Dunbartonshire East (Edi West close) gained - 4 gains from Lab, 1 from SNP
My own model agrees with this
So the Lib Dem 10 might be:
Ceredigion
Hallam
Westmorland
Leeds NW
Orkney (Safest of all)
Cambridge
Burnley
Bermondsey
Dunbartonshire East.
&
I reckon through tactical unionist voting
Edinburgh West.
Equally, his position on the final deal is irrational. He said on the Today programme that if the deal's not good enough, parliament should send it back for renegotiation. What the hell is the point of that? Our EU friends would just buff their nails, point to the Article 50 clock, and say 'That's the deal. Time's up. And, since you've already said that leaving with no deal is unacceptable, sign here'.
It's a bonkers position, however you look at it.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/25/open-britain-falls-apart-tory-mps-quit-group/
PS Good morning too, sorry!
At the last General Election in 2015, 67 per cent of baby boomers voted, compared to 56 per cent of generation X and just 46 per cent of millennials of voting age. Combined with the impact of their large cohort size, this resulted in a four million person ballot box advantage for the baby boomers over the millennials. The superficial correlation between generational voting blocs and the tax and benefit policies being implemented this parliament, which deliver a net benefit to those aged 55-75 set against large losses for those aged 20-40, is evident.
http://www.intergencommission.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Generational-voting.pdf
It's gestures like this that would ease the negotiations going forward. You have to remember we are in an incredibly weak position viz. the Brexit negotiations.
Anyway, understand that I will be in a minority on a blog with a right-wing bias but hey-ho.
We may be "beholden" to them for a deal but they are "beholden" to us as well (especially for European defense and security but in other ways too)
It's in everyone's interests that a sensible deal is reached. Which is why, for all the bluster on both sides, a sensible compromise will be negotiated.
Lib Dem Gain Twickenham and Richmond Park (Perhaps Surbiton too) would be great news for the Tories I think though. It'd mean a bit of a realignement (Given the massive Tory lead in national polling, the Tories have to be gaining votes elsewhere) which might stuff Labour further in the Brexitshire.
It's up to them to get their act together and make up their minds as to whether they accept it as a single unified group or not.
If they don't, it almost certainly leaves the UK/EU table and becomes a feature of separate negotiations on a bilateral level.
Residency, welfare, healthcare, immigration and employment rules with non-EU nations and citizens are all matters for national governments.
No doubt this will spur them on to claim the need for more Europe.
NEW THREAD
A deal favourable to the UK would set a precedent - just not going to happen. We will get a deal all right but it will be a crap deal for us and we will have to take it on the chin. Hence the madness and craziness of Brexit but we have been though the loop a million times on here so why waste the time.
I think the Womens Equality party backed the Lib Dem in Richmond by-election.
Many counts are held over until the Friday morning.